Post#16 » by Dr Positivity » Tue Sep 27, 2011 5:18 pm
KJ and Zo vs Paul
Just repeating some previous arguments.
- Because Paul's candidcy essentially rests on his 08 and 09 seasons, it's useful to say: Just how much better are those seasons than KJ and Zo's best two? Remember Kevin Johnson has two seasons where he puts up 22ppg and 10-11apg on .585 and .604 TS% and 120/121 ORTG which is not as high as Paul's, but still one of the best for stars in the league. KJ's teams finish 3rd in ORTG both those seasons and 1st and 4th in SRS. Like 08 vs 09 Paul, KJ is great in the 90 playoffs and pretty disappointing in the 91 playoffs in an early exit. I've heard the argument that Paul is a tier above in those seasons simply because he's a bball IQ read the court playmaker and KJ is an athleticism first one. But who's to say the bball IQ advantage isn't equalled by KJ's athleticism one? A more extreme comparison would be say, 2011 Paul vs 2011 Rose. Paul is basically getting by only on his skillset and bball IQ, Rose mostly on his athletic ability... for most of us the best Paul can say is that he equalled Rose in impact (I personally think Rose was clearly the better player but I'll give Paul a pass), but the point is, bball IQ doesn't always trump athleticism if the latter is great enough. From 89-92, the Suns offense was better than Paul's Hornets have ever been, and much much better than the 09 team's which ranked 12th of 30. If the 09 Hornets could be in that just decent zone offensively with prime Chris Paul, David West and a troupe of 3pt shooters, and the 2011 team could rank just 19th, I'm not going to say being a smarts over athleticism player is the magical elixer. The evidence does not back up smarts over athleticism being a large gap if the results, usually best indicated by the ppg/apg/efficiency/team impact/etc., are pretty close.
With all that said, 08 and 09 Paul is the better player than 90 and 91 KJ. He has advantages: He's even more efficient due to low TOV numbers, he rebounds more, he steals more. But all I'm saying is, the gap is not much bigger than a 5% or 10% better player and 'within range' of impact, just like the difference between prime Paul and prime Deron Williams has clearly not been any bigger than that. And Kevin Johnson is better than Deron Williams
If it's within range, I just don't see the argument for Paul considering KJ's value in 89, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97 vs Paul's 06, 07, 10, 11. Essentially for every Paul year, there's 2 KJ ones within range of its value. And if Deron Williams career essentially looked like KJ's in years - something like 5 relatively healthy 19/10 years + 3 more 45-50 G seasons where he contributed in the playoffs + one more good RS year where he was horrible in the PS - yes, I would certainly take that over Paul if he retired tomorrow on the ATL
As for Zo, it's a similar argument but harder to cross reference. In 99 and 2000 he finishes 3rd and 2nd in MVP with pretty monster 21/11/3.9/.56 and 22/9.5/3.7/.59 seasons. He's a guy you know you can build 50 W 5 SRS type teams around with a few scorers and facilitators. Once again I think Paul at his best is a better player, but by how much? Because Zo then gives you 6 more 20/10 years from 93 to 98, is an all-star in 02, and then is a kick butt backup center in 06 and 07, averaging like 14, 10 and over 4 blocks per 36. Can anyone really say they're that much more confident building a contender around 08 and 09 Paul than 99 and 00 Zo? Both are supremely valuable players at their positions, I'm not sure Paul guarantees you a better offense than Zo does defensively, and Zo has more impact offensively than Paul does defensively. I'll take Paul for those 2 seasons, but is it enough to make up for the difference between Paul's 06, 07, 10, 11 vs Zo's 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 02, 06, 07? I mean cancel out the two rookie/sophmore seasons (both very good statistically) and you have Paul's 10 and 11 vs Zo's 95, 96, 97, 98, 02, 06, 07? I mean jesus that's a beatdown in player value. To take Paul over Zo overall, you need to rely on an epic gap between 08 and 09 Paul and 99 and 00 Zo and I really don't think it's more than a decent margin.
Liberate The Zoomers
