vote: Grant Hill
nominate: David Thompson
-In the process of re-evaluating Vince Carter's NJ years. Hard for me to change how I think about them too much, but I find realbig3's argument thoughtful, at the least. Interesting to me that he definitely sees 06 Carter as better than AI that year -- wonder others thoughts on this.
-As for Chris Webber, I don't believe anyone has really addressed this so I'll present it again:
I also want to return to Webber, someone who I have been thinking about and seen nothing positive said of. Let's start with his peak, 2002:
This is the year Sac is a whisker from the title. Obviously if they win Webber is like a top-40 player on realgm (or whatever Championship boost is dolled out). I won't get into that ridiculous line of thinking. Just ask yourself how differently you'd view him if you find yourself ranking a lot of "winners" high and "losers" low.
In 02 he misses 28 games, and in that time Sacramento plays +5.9 MOV ball. Clearly they were a good, balanced team. (I thought they had a great bench with Bobby Jackson, Barry and some banging bigs). Pollard replaces him in the lineup for 27 of those games and just about everything else is unchanged (that team had great health 3 through 8 that year). That's a good sample, and assuming we trust the sample, that's good impact from Webber, although not necessarily super-super star level. But again, it's hard to complain about a guy taking an already good team and bringing them to the +8 range.
For comparison, I have 31 players whose teams played 5 MOV ball or better without them. The top net impacts were
Gasol 08 (+6.4)
Kobe 00, (+4.4)
Shaq 98 (+3.5)
Pippen 98 (+3.1)
Rodman 96 (+3.0)
Rodman 97 (+2.8)
Magic 86 (+2.7)
McHale 86 (+2.6)
Webber 02 (+2.6)
So it's not bad company!
Why do we think Webber does this? 25 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists is a good start. NB: He is remembered perhaps for poor efficiency and too many jumpers, but that was post injury. In 2002 Webber was +2.0% TS with good scoring and fantastic passing. He played the other side of Bibby's pick and roll/pop perfectly, as teams had to honor both his shooting and his passing, while playing high-post hub initiator in Pete Carrill's offense (along with Vlade).
But yes, he still had low post game and a good hook shot...and even went to the line 6.3 times per game (something he has also been criticized for). For comparison, KG went 5.1 times per 36, Webber 5.9, Dirk 6.4 and Duncan 7.6. His rebounding isn' great -- right around average for a PF -- well off of KG and Duncan's work there, but ahead of Dirk.
Now, in the 28 games he missed Sac posted an estimated ORtg of 107 (+2.5) and and an estimated DRtg of 101 (-3.5). (Btw, someone was wondering why these are estimated -- it's because B-R box scores don't include team rebounds.) For the season they were 109 and 101, so we can assume Webber is lifting them into the ~110 range on offense and still playing ~101 defense. Intuitively, it seems about right to say Webber's solid defense is comparable to Scott Pollard's. Taking the offense to nearly +6 -- which would have been second to the all-time level Mavs offense -- is good work for my money.
Btw, Peja missed 11 games and the Kings rolled through the stretch at +11.8 (4.9 better than the other 71g). They played 7 on the road, although an easy schedule (-1.38 SRS) in that stretch.
In the PS Webber posts raws of 24-11-5, with a slight bump in FG%. His TS% drops slightly because his free throws go in the tank. The team ORtg drops to 106.3 (+2.0) while the defense relative to opponents is a huge -5.4. Not sure if there is some left-hand-right-hand stuff there, but it's worth noting.
Webber himself has a few subpar games early, but then plays about 10 pretty good games in a row. He's consistent, which is in theory much better for a hi-level team like Sac than being high-variance. He has a number of big games against Dallas, despite battling some foul trouble. (30-10 on 12-15 shooting in 34 minutes in G4). Against the Lakers in the epic series he averages 24.3-10.9-6.3 on 51.4% TS. That series, in many ways, reflects peak Webber: His defense was solid (checking Shaq adequately at times), his assists were of really good value (typical backdoors and a lot of nice high-post action with Bibby). He shot 51% from the floor, went to the line 6 times, was always there but was never really dominant or want to take over down the stretch...but then again he was the other player in freeing Bibby over and over to make so many big shots. He was really good in G1-G4, until the second half, and then again in G5-G7, until the later stages of the game. (G6 I don't blame him for some of his foul calls.)
C-Webb finished 7th in MVP that year, despite missing 28 games. He was 4th the year before. And I think all told, the evidence (and eye test!) point to a high-impact player. Not quite at an MVP level, but just below one.
So, unless you disagree with that strongly, it's hard not to see Webber *at the least* right in this mix of current players, given that he has at least 3 really good years and a few other notable ones. I think he started quality play around 1996 (only 15 gp) -- his first all-star game was 97, although he was more foul prone then -- and his last relevant season was 2003. And when he joins the Kings in 99, he's fairly clearly the spearhead of an increase in quality of play.
And simply add that, as good as Sac became without him, especially as an offensive unit (Bibby + Peja shooting + Divac high-post passing) they were clearly never the same/a title contender without a healthy Webber.
-Robert Parish is someone I'm thinking about. I see him as a steady, all-star caliber center for most of his career. The question is how to handle his peak at the beginning of the 80s. In 1982 he finished 4th in MVP, and he certainly looks like the best Parish I've ever seen then -- playing excellent defense and being active/aggressive creating his own offense. I don't think it's really all it's made out to be, but it's probably a low-level all-nba season and a top-10 season from Parish.
Other notes: I've run 10 games of his (cutting games he played a matter of minutes and was then was injured) from 1988...he was +1.5 to +6.3 in. The next year, at 35 years old, Bird is out and instead of his overall/efficiency numbers slipping down Parish assumes a larger role and posts a career best 12.5 rpg and averages 18.6 on 61% TS! Impressive stuff, and it makes me think he was an excellent team player in that multipolar Boston offense of the 80s, despite not being a great passer.
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