Post#12 » by Dr Positivity » Sat Dec 17, 2011 7:06 pm
Well for me I try to look at it from the perspective of "Which player is it easier to build with?"
With Carmelo I see a clear and repeatable formula: If I have defending/finishing bigs at PF and C, a good playmaker in the backcourts, and shooters, I'm confident in my ability to succeed or even contend with him as the primary player, which is a rare thing to have - we voted in guys like Paul, Penny, Hill and Thompson long ago for it being plausible that they'd be the best player on a contending team, even if they had brutally short longevity.
Carmelo is routinely near the top of the league in attempts at the rim and FT line trips and gets nearly as much help coverage as other guys who have inside shots at that level (Lebron, Wade, etc.). The reason for his inefficiency compared to those players is a) He's somewhat a mediocore finisher - For example via hoopdata he took 7.9 FGA at the rim in 2010 but at 59%, while Lebron took 6.8 at 73%, so Lebron's FGM at the rim was 5.0 to Melo's 4.7. Though even if it's average compared to most FGM, 59% at the rim is still better than just about every other shot but an open 3, especially when the high probability and efficiency of drawing fouls taking FGM at the rim is taken into account and b) He obviously jacks up a lot of midrange jumpers
Yet the fact that the Nuggets offense was so elite at its best - Better than any offense Durant and Nique have ever anchored with a similar setup of a good PG and shooters/finishers - makes me think the offense Melo created at the rim himself and by the help drawn creating 3s and cleanup buckets - was star caliber. And APM likes Melo offensively too, it just treats him as a league worst defender - which is certainly a debateable question and begs a bigger question
To me Melo is a PLUS in building a strong defensive team for this reason. I think just about every star makes it easier to build a top 10/15 defense around them with the right moves and coaching because of specialization and energy - particularly perimeter ones over guys like Bosh and Amare that take up a valuable defensive spot and have to avoid fouls (which is the main reason I have them below Melo - they "take something off the table" IMO. The second reason is I'd rather have a 1v1 nightmare like Melo in the postseason than Bosh and Amare, I think Melo's midrange creating is more valuable in the PS when you have nowhere else to go against elite defenses)
On that point, to me it isn't a coincidence that the top 10 DRTG chart is usually dominated by either teams with stars on it + defense only teams like Skiles, Brown, etc. ones. What I think that pair has in common is that on both, the majority of the roster is expected to play harder defensively than the opponent to win games. Last year's Bulls were a top 10 all time defensive team in the regular season because they played with a playoff intensity all year defensively and had a bench full of specialists. So if it's that simple to put up an all time DRTG, why doesn't it happen more often? Because if a team went all out on that end without a star to carry them offensively, they'd be the Larry Brown Bobcats. What I believe is likely is that the rest of the Bulls actually played with less energy offensively than just about anyone else (because they had none left and were saving themselves to kill teams on the other end), they had less practice time offensively than anyone else (ie, ZERO), and they played offensively brutal players specialists more than just about anyone else. I think that was the real cost of "playoff caliber defensive intensity all 82 Gs" I also think this is exactly why the Cavs fell from 7th to 29th defensively last year. Not just because Lebron is that good of a defender and veterans were replaced by literal scrubs, but because that team was just trying to score enough to not get run out of the building and all of a sudden Byron was making moves like playing Mo at SG, Parker at SF and Jamison at PF at once just to give the offense some life
So that's a bit OT, but in short I think Carmelo has been a borderline franchise player and "can lead an elite team with gettable supporting pieces", or roughly top 10-15 in the league, which with an 8 year career makes him extremely valuable from the perspective of trying to win an NBA title without the probable luxury of getting a 2nd home run player. A good guard like a Billups and a good big like Nene is probably right around what you can expect if you have 8 years to build the best team possible and they were one or two things going their away from going up 3-1 on the Lakers, despite Billups being one of the few players Fisher is actually GOOD matchup against instead of terrible, the worst offensive starting SG in the league (Jones), and Ariza breaking open games 1 and 3 on plays that could've gone either way
Liberate The Zoomers
I did feel a bit ill when I wrote that because I'm not totally in love with Camby, but NOBODY should be using Camby as an excuse for why Melo couldn't get on a team with great defense. If you need someone better than Camby, then obviously it's not a simple matter to build a great defense around you.