Playoff Fourth Quarter/OT Numbers

[SideshowBob]

I've spent some time compiling fourth quarter numbers in the playoffs by going through the play-by-play. I've done a few series for Kobe and have finished going through all of Lebron's series.

These are their numbers in the 4th against Orlando in 2009, and Boston in 2010. Note that Lebron was criticized both years for not getting it done late in games

Vs Orlando 2009 (OT included, Kobe played 2 OT periods and Lebron played 1)

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Kobe

MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
11.7    8.0    2.8    1.0    1.2    8.2    .363   .444   .087

Lebron

MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
12.1    7.2    6.2    2.7    2.3    12.0   .535   .607   .131

Vs Boston 2010 (No OT periods)

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Kobe

MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
10.9    5.6    4.1    1.4    0.3    7.6    .346   .512   .085

Lebron

MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
10.2    5.8    3.3    2.3    0.7    7.5    .457   .514   .095

[IG2]

No surprise, really. LeBron was the game's best late-game player from 08-10.

He also handily outplayed Kobe against similar oppositions both years. And in the playoffs as a whole. This should be common knowledge, yet, for whatever reason, both seasons are perceived as LeBron owning the regular season, but Kobe showing his superiority come postseason, which is something that cannot be supported on any level. The ONLY reason LA was winning those 2 seasons and Cleveland not was superior coaching and defensive personnel. This used to be my obsession prior to LeBron's athletic decline, how much better LA was at stopping teams in BIG games compared to Cleveland. The numbers fully back it up too. Cleveland actually outperformed LA offensively against Orlando and Boston, but defensively, it wasn't even close. Cleveland got torched while LA completely shut those 2 teams down. My argument back then used to be that LeBron doesn't even need a 'Gasol' to win it all, just give him Phil Jackson and 75% of LA's big-series defensive prowess and he would have won back-to-back championships in '09 and '10 with the weakest cast ever.

[SideshowBob]

[b]No surprise, really. LeBron was the game's best late-game player from 08-10.[/b

I've gone through all of his playoff games. It's 06-10, not 08-10. His late game numbers in the playoffs in 06-08 were phenomenal as well, particularly against Detroit and San Antonio

[Vincent 666]

My argument back then used to be that LeBron doesn't even need a 'Gasol' to win it all, just give him Phil Jackson and 75% of LA's big-series defensive prowess and he would have won back-to-back championships in '09 and '10 with the weakest cast ever.

But yet he didnt win a title with Wade and Bosh which is a better cast than what Kobe had in 09 and 10.

[Vincent 666]

Boston looks about the same.

The big difference in the Magic numbers seem to be whistles and free throw attempts. Lebron got a ton of calls that series.

[SideshowBob]

Boston looks about the same.

The big difference in the Magic numbers seem to be whistles and free throw attempts. Lebron got a ton of calls that series.

I don't see why that should be held against him, especially considering Kobe put up almost the same drawfoul% against Boston as Lebron did against Orlando

Not to mention the fact that if you take out free throws from the Orlando series, James still beats Kobe in scoring, 7.7 vs 5.8

[Not Bias]

Once again Lebron beating Kobe in another statistical comparison.

Lebron=GOAT

[kabstah]

Boston looks about the same.

The big difference in the Magic numbers seem to be whistles and free throw attempts. Lebron got a ton of calls that series.

Actually the difference was Kobe not making as many shots despite more attempts. Can't handwave away a 17% gap in eFG% with whistles.

[SideshowBob]

For reference, Lebron's career playoff 4th quarter scoring average is 8.7 points. Prior to last season's playoff run, the average was 9.2, however the 76ers series and the Dallas series (worst of his career) really brought his averages down. Against Boston and Chicago he was right around his average, going for 9.4 on 60% TS (just wanted to point that out for those who think those were "exceptions" to his expected choke jobs.

[Vincent 666]

Boston looks about the same.

The big difference in the Magic numbers seem to be whistles and free throw attempts. Lebron got a ton of calls that series.

Actually the difference was Kobe not making as many shots despite more attempts. Can't handwave away a 17% gap in eFG% with whistles.

I dont know about a 17% gap but free throws go a long way in efficiency and shot attempts.

A shot attempt isnt registered as a shot when its called a foul. Taking free throws into account, Lebron took more shots.

[kabstah]

The eFG% gap is so enormous that you can't look at it and rationally conclude that Kobe was less efficient primarily due to foul calls. The math is extremely simple, and confirms that Kobe was just plain worse at putting the ball through the hoop. Even if we bump Kobe's raw FTA to match Lebron's (increase of 3.4) and decrease Kobe's raw FGA by the corresponding amount (3.4 * .44 = 1.5), Kobe's eFG% still comes out to a paltry 44.7%. And this is a best case scenario for Kobe too by assuming each and every additional FT that Lebron shot was the result of an unfair foul call that Kobe would not get in an analogous situation.

[SideshowBob]

I'm working on compiling Kobe's career playoff numbers as well, game by game, grouped by series. So far, I can only see Play-by-Play data going back to about 2003

[mysticbb]

I'm working on compiling Kobe's career playoff numbers as well, game by game, grouped by series. So far, I can only see Play-by-Play data going back to about 2003

2002: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/PBP/2002.rar

At least the playoffs should be complete.

[SideshowBob]

I'm working on compiling Kobe's career playoff numbers as well, game by game, grouped by series. So far, I can only see Play-by-Play data going back to about 2003

2002: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/PBP/2002.rar

At least the playoffs should be complete.

Thanks Mystic

I'll try to get around to as many players as I can over the next few weeks

[mysticbb]

Thanks Mystic :D

Haha, nothing to thank for, you should thank J.E., who posted it on APBR. All pbp data from 2002/03 to 2005/06 plus those 2002 data.

I know that Wayne Winston has the pbp data from 1999/00 on, but I also know that he will not give them out for free. :(

I'll try to get around to as many players as I can over the next few weeks

Sounds good. For 2001 you can use Play Index+ on b-r.com. But that will obviously take some time with the small amount of options the Event Finder has.

[SideshowBob]

Haha, nothing to thank for, you should thank J.E., who posted it on APBR. All pbp data from 2002/03 to 2005/06 plus those 2002 data.

Still, you linked it here. That makes my job easier as I'll admit I intended to start asking the APBR guys if I hit a lull in finding the data.

What'd be really nice would be to find the data for the 90s. I know once I've gone through the big guys of the last decade, I'm going to want to go further back.

What helps is that there's tons of readily available video now. Just on this site JB's linked us to hundreds of playoff games. It's a long project, but I suppose I could start tracking my own individual player PbP.

I'll try to get around to as many players as I can over the next few weeks

Sounds good. For 2001 you can use Play Index+ on b-r.com. But that will obviously take some time with the small amount of options the Event Finder has.[/quote]

That's also an option. Shame b-r.com's kept it so limited so far, I expect they'll refine it in the future. It'd be nice to have readily available splits within games.

[SideshowBob]

Here are there numbers against Boston in 2008. No game went into OT

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Kobe

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
6    10.6    5.7    2.7    0.3    1.3    7.3    .441   .536   .039

Lebron

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
7    10.4    6.6    3.0    1.1    1.4    7.4    .402   .471   .084

Kobe struggled in the first game, was excellent in games 2, 3, and 4, decent in game 5, and laid an egg in game 6. remarkably, he played better in the 4th against Boston in 2008 than he did in 2010

As for Lebron, he REALLY struggled shooting wise in games 1 and 4 (though game 4 was a win), and played great in the rest

[SideshowBob]

Kobe vs Phoenix

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2006

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
7    12.3    7.3    3.0    0.9    0.4    9.7    .441   .564   .100

2007

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
5    9.7     6.4    1.8    0.8    1.2    6.4    .359   .445   .106

2010

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
6    10.3    5.7    2.3    1.0    2.2    7.3    .471   .548   .036

[tsherkin]

I dont know about a 17% gap but free throws go a long way in efficiency and shot attempts.

No no no, the FTA have nothing to do with eFG, which only factors in FGA and 3PA against made field goals. Kobe looked like ass because he shot terribly, and the gap represents that truth.

A shot attempt isnt registered as a shot when its called a foul. Taking free throws into account, Lebron took more shots.

Right, but he generated FTAs, which means he still created a scoring play. So trying to penalize him for that is just dishonest.

[SideshowBob]

Through 13 series, this is the best one I've found from Kobe so far

2009 vs Denver

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GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
6    10.3    5.3    4.5    1.3    1.3    10.3   .594   .706   .072