RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread

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ardee
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#321 » by ardee » Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:16 am

SideshowBob wrote:
Yeah, I'm pretty confident in that statement, but I'm not going to try to argue it till after the playoffs. Just doesn't seem wise to, given the magnitude. :)

Not enough that I can post it, but it wouldn't deviate much from most of the ballots posted here (namely elGee and fatal). I might have a different opinion on which years for some guys, and obviously it won't be identical to others, but nothing big. I'm still going to hold out till after this season though, as I want to try to break it down by estimated SRS impact and separate it out, offense from defense, as well as include 2013 in the mix.

On the other hand, I haven't seen a list from you since the project ended, unless I glanced over it somewhere. Did you ever get around to updating it?


Rank Player Season SRS Rating

1 Wilt Chamberlain 1967 9.5
2 Michael Jordan 1991 9.5

3 Shaquille O'Neal 2000 9
4 Hakeem Olajuwon 1994 9

5 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1977 8.5
6 Larry Bird 1986 8.5
7 Magic Johnson 1987 8.5

8 LeBron James 2009 8
9 Tim Duncan 2003 8
10 Bill Russell 1965 7.5

11 Bill Walton 1977 8
12 Kevin Garnett 2004 7

13 Oscar Robertson 1964 6.5
14 Kobe Bryant 2008 6.5
15 Julius Erving 1976 6.5

16 Dwyane Wade 2009 6.5
17 Jerry West 1966 6

18 Charles Barkley 1993 6.5
19 Chris Paul 2008 6
20 Steve Nash 2007 6
21 Dirk Nowitzki 2011 6
22 Moses Malone 1983 6

23 David Robinson 1994 5.5
24 Patrick Ewing 1990 5.5
25 Tracy McGrady 2003 5.5

26 Karl Malone 1992 5.5

27 Dwight Howard 2011 5
28 Elgin Baylor 1961 5
29 Bernard King 1984 5
30 Scottie Pippen 1992 5
31 Penny Hardaway 1996 5

32 Kevin Durant 2012 5
33 Rick Barry 1975 5
34 Kevin McHale 1987 5

35 Artis Gilmore 1975 5
36 Bob Pettit 1959 4.5
37 Dave Cowens 1976 4.5

38 Clyde Drexler 1992 4.5
39 Isiah Thomas 1985 4.5
40 Walt Frazier 1972 4


Leaving '13 Durant and LeBron out of it for the simple reason, as you said, we don't know if they'll raise their games even further in the Playoffs.
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#322 » by thebottomline » Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:53 am

Would be interesting to see the offensive/defensive splits for some of these SRS impact lists. I know ElGee posted some of his, e.g. '91 Jordan was a +7 off / +2 def and '00 Shaq was a +6 off / +3 def. I think '13 LeBron could finish somewhere in the middle offensively and defensively between those two on my list (i.e. +6.5 off / +2.5 def if I used ElGee's numbers as a guideline), which makes him very interesting.

Some food for thought...

The average player this season scores about 21.1 points per 100 team possessions (league ORtg divided by 5). LeBron is scoring about 37.4 points per 100 team possessions, so his relative scoring volume by this measure is +16.3 points per 100 possessions above league average. His relative TS% is currently +9.9 above league average.

'13 LeBron: +16.3 relative volume, +9.9 relative TS%
'91 Jordan: +21.3 relative volume, +7.1 relative TS%
'00 Shaq: +17.5 relative volume, on +5.5 relative TS%

Who has the best combination of volume and efficiency here? Is '13 LeBron a better scorer than peak Shaq?

And btw, '13 Durant: +17.8 relative volume, +12.3 relative TS%
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#323 » by SideshowBob » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:14 am

Elgee had Lebron as +5.0 Off +3.0 Def in 2012 (someone correct me if I'm wrong), and that's where I have his 2012 season as well. I have him at about +6.0 Off +2.5 Def in 09 and 10 (about even with Chamberlain and Bird, whose high portability pushes him into that stratosphere) and this year I've got him at +6.5 Off and +3.0 Def looking at +9.5 overall. For comparisons sake, I've got 90-92 Jordan at #1 at +7.0 Off +2.0 Def, and 99-01 Shaq at #2 at +6.0 Off +3.0 Def, both at +9.0 overall (about the same as ElGee).
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#324 » by Jordan23Forever » Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:27 pm

thebottomline wrote:'
Statistically he's the best finisher since prime Shaq, scoring at the rim (1-3 feet) at a rate of 78.0% (234/300 FG) compared to 2001 Shaq's rate of 78.5% (603/768), the highest since they've been tracking shot charts (2001).


Does that not tell you something other than "Lebron is as good a finisher at the rim as prime Shaq"? Sometimes I think people have blinders on.
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#325 » by thebottomline » Sun Feb 17, 2013 11:49 pm

Did you miss the word "statistically"? Talk about blinders.

Speaking of which, LeBron is currently converting 78.8% of his attempts at the rim.
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#326 » by Dipper 13 » Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:19 am

Statistically he's the best finisher since prime Shaq


Only by 0.1%, in looking at percentages within the restricted area.


2001 Shaq: 77.4% FG

2013 LeBron: 77.3% FG



since they've been tracking shot charts (2001).


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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#327 » by INKtastic » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:09 pm

Is it 78.8 or 77.3?
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#328 » by thebottomline » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:24 pm

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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#329 » by INKtastic » Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:35 pm

thanks. that is just ridiculous. As is the shooting chart in the first link.
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#330 » by ardee » Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:35 am

Doctor MJ and bastillion, do you guys have lists?
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#331 » by Dipper 13 » Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:51 pm

79.0% at rim (less than 3 feet)

77.4% within the restricted area (less than 4 feet)



Yes that is my mistake. I should have noted the difference to avoid confusion. I do wonder though who charts these games and how such precise shot locations are determined. Perhaps from an overhead cam?
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#332 » by Gregoire » Wed Feb 27, 2013 8:00 am

Gregoire wrote:1. MJ 91 - 9,5
2. Shaq 00 - 9,0
3. Wilt 67 - 9,0
4. Kareem 77 - 8,5
5. Hakeem 95 - 8,5
6. Bird 86 - 8,0
7. Lebron 09 - 8,0
8. Russell 64 - 8,0
9. Magic 87 - 8,0
10. Duncan 03 - 7,5
11. Walton 77 - 7,5
12. Kobe 09- 7,0
13 Garnett 04 - 7,0
14. Barkley 90 - 7,0
15. Robinson 94 - 6,5
16. Oscar 64 - 6,5
17. West 69 - 6,5
18. Erving - 6,0
19. Wade - 6,0
20. Moses - 6,0

Now Lebron for me is improved in these list. He have 9,0 overall and share with Shaq and Wilt the number 2 spot.
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#333 » by B_Creamy » Thu Feb 28, 2013 1:01 am

Any thoughts on how LeBron and Kevin Durant's placement may have improved this season?
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#334 » by RoundMoundOfReb » Fri Mar 1, 2013 12:50 am

B_Creamy wrote:Any thoughts on how LeBron and Kevin Durant's placement may have improved this season?

Need to see post-season performance first.
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#335 » by Fencer reregistered » Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:28 am

Looks like a good project that I missed. :)

Without me bothering to scroll back -- was Iverson's MVP season 2000-1 considered? It was hard to explain Philly's results that year without attributing a lot to him, strong defensive center play & good role players notwithstanding. His numbers look pretty good as well, FG%s being the main black mark.

Similarly Kidd 2001-3. Recall that his man defense was excellent in those days as well.
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#336 » by JordansBulls » Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:07 pm

1. 1991 Jordan
2. 1971 Kareem
3. 1994 Olajuwon
4. 2000 Shaq
5. 1967 Wilt
6. 1965 Russell
7. 1987 Magic
8. 1986 Bird
9. 2003 Duncan
10. 2012 Lebron/1983 Moses
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#337 » by ardee » Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:57 pm

JordansBulls wrote:1. 1991 Jordan
2. 1971 Kareem
3. 1994 Olajuwon
4. 2000 Shaq
5. 1967 Wilt
6. 1965 Russell
7. 1987 Magic
8. 1986 Bird
9. 2003 Duncan
10. 2012 Lebron/1983 Moses


You're still maintaining that Kareem peaked in his 2nd year?
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#338 » by colts18 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:06 pm

ardee wrote:
You're still maintaining that Kareem peaked in his 2nd year?

Win shares, PER, no other all-stars on his team, and HCA says he peaked in his 2nd year.
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#339 » by ardee » Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:06 pm

colts18 wrote:
ardee wrote:
You're still maintaining that Kareem peaked in his 2nd year?

Win shares, PER, no other all-stars on his team, and HCA says he peaked in his 2nd year.


Both were higher in '77, he had an AS and All-NBA Oscar who was having one of the most sensational in-out seasons ever, and HCA, well... :lol:
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Re: RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread 

Post#340 » by colts18 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:18 pm

ardee wrote:Both were higher in '77, he had an AS and All-NBA Oscar who was having one of the most sensational in-out seasons ever, and HCA, well... :lol:

Kareem in 71 won with HCA. He did what he was expected to. Kareem 77 got swept with HCA, therefore 71 Kareem is better.

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