The case for Shaq 2000 as the GOAT Peak

[colts18]

I'm going to outline the case of Shaq 2000 for the GOAT peak. Warning this post has a lot of numbers and is a pretty long read. I'll focus on his performance without Kobe, Defense, the Lakers as a team, 4th quarter, clutch, and playoffs.

Without Kobe:
Kobe started the 2000 season injured. He missed all of November. During that time, the Lakers and Shaq didn’t miss a beat at all.

11-3 record
6.61 SRS (would still be good enough to be #1 in the league)

Shaq performed admirably
28.7 PPG, 13.4 Reb, 3 AST, 59.5 FG%

More impressively is how the Lakers performed when Shaq was on the court during that span that Kobe missed.
107 O rating (+6.8 from League average)
94.3 D rating (-7.0 from league average)
+12.7 Net Rating

The most amazing thing about the above numbers is that Shaq’s full season numbers were 106 O rating and 95 D rating (11 Net) so that means the Lakers with Shaq on the court while Kobe didn’t play, played better offense and defense than the Lakers played with Shaq on the court in the games Kobe played. Shaq really stepped it up in that span.

Here is Shaq’s supporting cast during those games:
36 year old Ron Harper, 7 PPG 39.9 FG%
25 year old Derek Fisher, 6 PPG, 34.6 FG%
32 year old Glen Rice, 15.9 PPG, 43 FG%
36 year old A.C. Green, 5 PPG 44.7 FG%
2000 Shaq

Bench,
Brian Shaw
Rick Fox
Robert Horry
Travis Knight
John Celestand

Despite all of that, Shaq performed just as well and somehow got an on court 107 Offensive rating (+6.8 from league average) with Shaq on court. To put that into perspective, the #2 offense this year (Heat) are +6.5. They also played -7.0 defense which is the exact same that the 2011 Bulls and Celtics played.

In that month without Kobe, while the team played awesome with Shaq on the court, they were horrific without Shaq in that month

On court: +12 per 100
Off court: -44 in 197 minutes, (-11.17 per 100)
+23.19 per 100 possession difference

So Shaq was propping up a mediocre at best cast in Kobe’s absence to playing like the best team in the league when Shaq was on the court.

Defense:
Shaq’s 2000 season was his best defensive performance ever. The Lakers finished #1 in Defensive Rating (-5.9 relative to league average according to B-R), 1st in FG% allowed, 3P% allowed. Shaq led the league in Defensive Win Shares. Shaq’s man defense was a huge part of that. According to Hoopsstats.com, the Lakers in 2000 allowed 14.0 PPG, 40.7 FG% to opposing center. They had the best PPG against Centers, FG% against centers, and finished with the 2nd fewest FTA/game allowed to Centers.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fa ... 10/pts/1-1
Top TS% defense:
Lakers: .455 TS% (.453 in the games Shaq played)
Spurs: .486 TS%
Heat: .490 TS%
The League average center was .526 TS% so the Lakers were -7.1 TS% relative to League average and they beat the Robinson/Duncan Spurs by 3.1 TS% for 1st place. An impressive feat.

Here are some more facts from Hoopsstats.com. Here are the best opposing Center PPG and FG% defense since hoopsstats started collecting the stat (from 1998-2013)

Top opponent Center PPG defense from 98-13:
06 Heat: 12.8 PPG (Shaq)
04 Lakers: 12.9 PPG (Shaq)
06 Jazz: 12.9 PPG

Top opponent Center FG% defense from 98-13:
00 Lakers: 40.7 FG% (Shaq)
99 Spurs: 41.1 FG% (Duncan/Robinson)
99 Hawks: 41.9 FG% (Mutombo)
Shaq’s teams finished #1 in 00 and 05, #2 in 01, 02 and #3 in 98 and 06.

Here is a comparison between Shaq and Alonzo Mourning, the 2000 DPOY, for that season:
Teams On Court Defensive Rating:
Shaq 95.3 pts allowed per 100 possessions with Shaq on the court
Mourning: 97.7 points per 100 allowed

These are the stats of all Centers in the league that played 24 minutes in a game vs Shaq/Mourning in 2000. Numbers are Per 36:

vs. Shaq: 12.46 PPG, 42.5 FG%, .462 TS% 1.48 AST-1.68 TOV

vs. Mourning: 12.53 PPG, 45.4 FG%, .512 TS%, 1.23 AST-1.83 TOV

vs. league average: 13.97 PPG, 50.2 FG%, .547 TS%, 1.50 AST-2.02 TOV

*League average does not include Shaq

Dropoff: Shaq-League Avg: -1.21 PPG, -7.7 FG%, -8.5 TS%, -0.2 AST, -0.34 TOV


vs Shaq: 10% 20+ points, 25% 15+ points, 48% <10 points

vs. Mourning: 14% 20+ Points, 20% 15+ points, 44% <10 points

League average: 13.9% 20+ Points, 32.1% 15+ points, 38.2% <10 points

Here is what Shaq did vs. the top 5 non-Shaq scorers at Center that year:
vs. Shaq (parenthesis is their regular season average):

Mourning: 27 PPG, 44.2 FG%, .513 TS%(21.7 PPG, 55.1 FG%, .596 TS%)

DRob: 13.3PPG, 42.1 FG%, .462 TS% (17.8 PPG, 51.2 FG%, .568 TS%) (had 15 Points on 54.5 FG% in the game Shaq missed)

Ewing: 13 PPG, 32.4 FG%, .343 TS% (15 PPG, 46.6 FG%, .516 TS%)

Smits: 8 PPG, 47.1 FG%, .471 TS% (12.9 PPG, 48.4 FG%, .518 TS%), 10 PPG 46.6 FG% in finals vs. Shaq

Campbell: 7 PPG, 28.6 FG%, .308 TS% (12.7 PPG, 44.6 FG%, .500 TS%)

Average dropoff is -2.2 PPG, -10.3 FG%, -12.0 TS%. That is a significant dropoff.

Playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis):
Divac: 11.2 PPG, 35.7 FG%, 423 TS% (12.3 PPG, 50.3 FG%, .552 TS%)
Longley: 5.2 PPG, 37.1 FG%, .330 TS% (6.3 PPG, 44.6 FG%, .512 TS%)
Sabonis: 8.3 PPG, 38.2 FG%, 22.2 3P%, .471 TS% (11.8 PPG, 50.5 FG%, 36.8 3P%, .568 TS%)
Smits: 10 PPG, 46.6 FG%, .495 TS% (12.9 PPG, 48.4 FG%, .518 TS%)
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%

Shaq was elite on man defense again in the playoffs.

Here is a breakdown on the Lakers defense in the paint
With Shaq on court: 33.5 Points in the paint allowed per 48 minutes
Shaq off the court: 38.8 Points allowed per 48
5.3 points per 48 minute difference. Teams shot 148 more mid range shots with Shaq on the court than against any other player in the league.

Team performance:
The Lakers were an all-time team in the games Shaq played
Shaq played: 66-13 (.835), 9.27 SRS, +9.9 Efficiency Differential (would be 6th all-time)
Shaq missed: 1-2 (.333), -11.16 SRS

To get an idea of Shaq’s impact, I will give an anecdote. The Lakers and Shaq played a game vs. the Rockets at Houston. The Lakers won by 1 point. 2 days later the Lakers played the Rockets again this time at home and without Shaq. They lost by 16 points. So that’s a 24.1 Point turnaround when you adjust for HCA. Hakeem vs. Shaq shot 5-18 (.278), the next game without Shaq he shot 6-12 (.500)

Games Shaq and Kobe both played in:
54-10 (.844) (would be 2nd best win% in history)
9.71 SRS (4th best SRS in 3 pt era behind 92, 96, 97 Bulls)


Shaq on the court: +706 (#1 in the NBA) (+11.2 per 100 possessions)
Shaq off the court: -5 (-0.0 per 100 possessions)

4th Quarter:
For some reason there is a myth out there that Shaq was a liability in the 4th quarter. The data does not show that at all.

Top 5 in 4th Quarter points per 36 minutes in 2000:
1. Shaq 29.4 PPG, .584 TS%
2. Malone 27.9 PPG, .604 TS%
3. Carter 26.3 PPG, .573 TS%
4. Iverson 25.9 PPG, .504 TS%
5. Hill 25.4 PPG, 56.6 TS%
Kobe was 9th at 23 point per 36.

The Lakers had a 110 O rating when Shaq was on the court in the 4th quarter. Here are those same ratings, except for the playoffs (min. 2 playoff series):
1. Shaq 32.3 PPG, .637 TS%
2. Wells 29.6 PPG, .617 TS%
3. Mourning 23.7 PPG, .524 TS%
4. Miller 23.0 PPG, .654 TS% (his team had a 124.3 O rating in the 4th with him on the court)
5. Malone 22.6 PPG, .490 TS%

Kobe was 9th at 21.4 points per 36 with a .479 TS%. The Lakers had a 116 O rating with Shaq on the court in the 4th quarter in the 2000 postseason.

Here is how Shaq compares to 97 and 98 Jordan in the 4th quarter:

Regular season (per 36):
97 MJ 29.5 PPG, .594 TS%, 113.4 on court O rating
98 MJ 31.1 PPG, .572 TS%, 108.0 O rating
00 Shaq 29.4 PPG, .584 TS%, 110 O rating

Playoffs (per 36):
97 MJ 33.2 PPG, .569 TS%, 114.4 on court O rating
98 MJ 33.5 PPG, .557 TS%, 108.5 O rating
00 Shaq 32.3 PPG, .637 TS%, 116.0 O rating

Shaq was very comparable to MJ and probably better in the playoffs. Shaq had 2 important series in the playoffs (Blazers, Pacers) and he averaged 33.5 points per 36 and 69.4 FG%, +18.2 Net rating per 100, 118.4 on court O rating in the 4th quarter in those 2 series.

Playoff Clutch:
Shaq was also clutch in the playoffs. In the 4th quarter when the score was within 5 points and 5 minutes left or less, Shaq dominated in the playoffs.

Per 48:
44.9 pts, .610 TS%, 19.8 reb, 4.0 ast, 6.6 blk, +33.0, 128 on court O rating

When the Lakers were down by 5 or less with 5 minutes or less left in the game:
11 minutes, 13 pts (5-8 FG), 6 reb, +15 +/-

Playoffs:
Shaq was as brilliant in the playoffs as he was in the regular season. His impact was certainly as high.
Shaq on court: +115 (+6 per 100 possessions)
Shaq off court: -61 (-27.3 per 100 possessions)
+33.3 per 100 possessions

That impact was more apparent in the final 2 rounds where the Lakers had their most difficult challenge. Shaq played 45.7 MPG in those 2 rounds, but the Lakers absolutely collapsed without him on the court.

On court: +21 (+1.8 per 100 possessions)
Off court: 35 minutes, -43 points (-61.0 per 100 possessions)
+62.8 per 100 possessions

Now granted it is a small sample size, but it’s absurd how the Lakers had a higher losing margin (-43) than they did minutes (35) without Shaq on the court. With Shaq on the court they had a 107.8 Offensive Rating. I estimated that they had a 73.4 Offensive Rating in the possessions that Shaq missed in the final 2 rounds.

1st round:
Vs. Sacramento, #7 in SRS, #10 in D rating:
29/17/3, 54.3 FG%. Shaq has a 32/18/4, 15-24 (.625) closeout game in a 27 point win.

Vs. Phoenix, #4 in SRS, #3 in D rating:
30/16/3, 55.9 FG%. Had games of 37/14, 38/20, and 37/17.

Vs. Blazers, #2 in SRS, #5 in D rating:
26/14/4, 53.7 FG%. Starts off really hot in the series. Has a bad game 6. Then in game 7, Shaq steps it up in the 4th quarter. He goes 3-3 and draws 5 fouls in the quarter. Sabonis starts the quarter with 2 fouls in the first 3 quarters. 9 minutes later, he fouls out of the game, with all 4 fouls coming against Shaq. He touched the ball 11 times in 16 halfcourt 4th quarter possessions. He passed it out 3 times and the other 8 times he went 3-3 FG and drew 5 fouls.

Vs. Pacers, #6 in SRS:
38/17/2, 61.1 FG%. Arguably the greatest finals in history. He had games of 43/19, 40/24, 33/13, 36/21, 35/11, 41/12. He shot 59% or better in 5 of those games. The Lakers had a 109 O rating with him on the court (+7.7 relative to playoff average). He did it while his top 2 offensive guys didn’t do much.
Kobe- 15.6 PPG, 36.7 FG%
Rice- 11.5 PPG, 40.0 FG%

The most impressive is what Shaq did to the Pacers frontline (Smits, Davis, Perkins, Croshere, and Tabak). They combined for 102 fouls in 6 games (17 per game) after they combined for 10.8 fouls per game in the regular season. Crazy thing is the only thing that held back Shaq was FT shooting. If he shot his regular season average at the FT line in the finals, he would have averaged over 40 PPG in this finals.

Shaq certainly had a few weaknesses that year like his FT shooting, but I think overall he has a great case as the best season of all-time or at least slightly below MJ at his absolute peak.

[aol4532]

They went 11-4 without Kobe, not any better than prime Hakeem. But the thing is, Shaq never faced any tough competition in the playoffs. Shaq was lucky that Duncan got injured, because I remember them getting blown out by San Antonio in the 1st game, lost to them again at the end of the season, when Duncan wasn't playing, and was 1-3 against San Antonio, and the one win they got was because of some weak calls.

I rank regular season prime-Hakeem and prime-Shaq as equal. Here's the thing, in the regular season, you get a lot of weak competition to pad your stats(who the heck is Vonteego Cummings?) If you take into account the postseason, Hakeem wins.

[MacGill]

Great write-up Colts18.

Certainly MJ & Shaq are my 1a) b) players here but I always wondered what would happen if Shaq got more touches on the same scale as MJ?

I remember talking to J23F and he was going on about MJ's 95 run versus Orlando but Shaq only had 15.8 (I believe fga/g) versus 26 from Jordan.

Anyhow, how does his touches in 2000 fall in line with MJ's early 90's peak? He always had to wait to get the rock and with him scoring over 70% from 6 feet in I wonder what type of difference that would make over if he was more in line.

[colts18]

They went 11-4 without Kobe, not any better than prime Hakeem. But the thing is, Shaq never faced any tough competition in the playoffs. Shaq was lucky that Duncan got injured, because I remember them getting blown out by San Antonio in the 1st game, lost to them again at the end of the season, when Duncan wasn't playing, and was 1-3 against San Antonio, and the one win they got was because of some weak calls.

I rank regular season prime-Hakeem and prime-Shaq as equal. Here's the thing, in the regular season, you get a lot of weak competition to pad your stats(who the heck is Vonteego Cummings?) If you take into account the postseason, Hakeem wins.

The actually went 12-4 that year without Kobe (11-4 in November). But Shaquille missed one of those games so they went 11-3 when Shaq played.

Shaq proved he could dominate in the playoffs against good competition the next year vs mutombo

That 1-3 record vs the spurs is misleading. Shaq missed one of those games and one of them was the final game of the year where Shaq played 32 min in a OT game

[lorak]

I have no doubts that if Shaq would have work ethic like other greats he would be GOAT with big advantage over 2nd player. Still, even as lazy as he was, he's top5 ever. He was that good, that dominant. The most impressive psychical freak ever with great skillset (of course except of FT).

[GreenHat]

Great write-up Colts18.

Certainly MJ & Shaq are my 1a) b) players here but I always wondered what would happen if Shaq got more touches on the same scale as MJ?

I remember talking to J23F and he was going on about MJ's 95 run versus Orlando but Shaq only had 15.8 (I believe fga/g) versus 26 from Jordan.

Anyhow, how does his touches in 2000 fall in line with MJ's early 90's peak? He always had to wait to get the rock and with him scoring over 70% from 6 feet in I wonder what type of difference that would make over if he was more in line.

Against Houston as well. Shaq scored slightly less than Hakeem but Hakeem was taking 29 shots per game while Shaq was only taking less than 19. That's more than 10 more shots PER GAME for less than 5 more points and this is evidence of Hakeem DOMINATING Shaq even though he shot way less efficiently (60% to 48%, only one three taken total)

People like to diminish Shaq's peak because of his supporting cast. The problem is so many people define supporting cast based purely on how many all star appearances the 2nd or 2nd and 3rd best player have. Its an incredibly lazy way to look at things but that's what the majority of people look at.

Given the scarcity of position and role I would take 2000 Shaq over anyone.

[Gregoire]

I think Shaq chares number 2 spot of greatest peaks (with Wilt and current Lebron). MJs peak was bettter imo. Even 97 and 98 Jordan was better or equal in the clutch ( stats in first huge post). And peak MJ 89-93 was way better in scoring and percetnages than in 97 and especially 98. So, greatest Shaqs year slightly worse in 4th quarter than old MJ. And if we calculate more "clutch" stats (like 5 last minutes, 3 last minutes ect) I think MJ will have more significant edge.

[GreenHat]

'98 Jordan has no place in this discussion at all.

It was clearly a step down for him once he didn't have the short three point line anymore (which just happened to be right within his range).

He was still good but nowhere near GOAT peak

[colts18]

Most Points Per 4th Quarter
NBA Finals Past 21 Seasons
1995 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
1997 Michael Jordan 10.7
2011 Dirk Nowitzki 10.3
1993 Michael Jordan 10.3

[aol4532]

Great write-up Colts18.

Certainly MJ & Shaq are my 1a) b) players here but I always wondered what would happen if Shaq got more touches on the same scale as MJ?

I remember talking to J23F and he was going on about MJ's 95 run versus Orlando but Shaq only had 15.8 (I believe fga/g) versus 26 from Jordan.

Anyhow, how does his touches in 2000 fall in line with MJ's early 90's peak? He always had to wait to get the rock and with him scoring over 70% from 6 feet in I wonder what type of difference that would make over if he was more in line.

Against Houston as well. Shaq scored slightly less than Hakeem but Hakeem was taking 29 shots per game while Shaq was only taking less than 19. That's more than 10 more shots PER GAME for less than 5 more points and this is evidence of Hakeem DOMINATING Shaq even though he shot way less efficiently (60% to 48%, only one three taken total)

People like to diminish Shaq's peak because of his supporting cast. The problem is so many people define supporting cast based purely on how many all star appearances the 2nd or 2nd and 3rd best player have. Its an incredibly lazy way to look at things but that's what the majority of people look at.

Given the scarcity of position and role I would take 2000 Shaq over anyone.

What about the other numbers such as rebounds, assists, blks, FTAs(remember, every two free throw attempts equal one FGA) and non-stats stuff like hockey assists, and P&R defense? There's a reason why Shaq got swept with Penny.

You're calling us lazy for looking at supporting casts, it seems to me you're also lazy, by just looking at FGA and points.

[The Explorer]

52% ft shooting, 45% in the playoffs is a huge weakness.

[The Infamous1]

Great write-up Colts18.

Certainly MJ & Shaq are my 1a) b) players here but I always wondered what would happen if Shaq got more touches on the same scale as MJ?

I remember talking to J23F and he was going on about MJ's 95 run versus Orlando but Shaq only had 15.8 (I believe fga/g) versus 26 from Jordan.

Anyhow, how does his touches in 2000 fall in line with MJ's early 90's peak? He always had to wait to get the rock and with him scoring over 70% from 6 feet in I wonder what type of difference that would make over if he was more in line.

Against Houston as well. Shaq scored slightly less than Hakeem but Hakeem was taking 29 shots per game while Shaq was only taking less than 19. That's more than 10 more shots PER GAME for less than 5 more points and this is evidence of Hakeem DOMINATING Shaq even though he shot way less efficiently (60% to 48%, only one three taken total)

People like to diminish Shaq's peak because of his supporting cast. The problem is so many people define supporting cast based purely on how many all star appearances the 2nd or 2nd and 3rd best player have. Its an incredibly lazy way to look at things but that's what the majority of people look at.

Given the scarcity of position and role I would take 2000 Shaq over anyone.

What about the other numbers such as rebounds, assists, blks, FTAs(remember, every two free throw attempts equal one FGA) and non-stats stuff like hockey assists, and P&R defense? There's a reason why Shaq got swept with Penny.

You're calling us lazy for looking at supporting casts, it seems to me you're also lazy, by just looking at FGA and points.

Plus shaq padded his numbers in game 2 garbage time when Hakeem dominated him in the first half and had the rockets leading by 22 at half and 19 through 3 Quarters(Shaq scored 23 in the 2nd half)

That game is a classic example of the box score not telling the whole story

[Sharifani_San]

Nah, this is the same guy who almost brought his team down against the Blazers, who by all accounts should have lost if the Blazers hadn't choked for no good reason whatsoever. I was cheering for Shaq at the time, but now that I see the blind homerism that likes to put this season up on a pedestal when it does not deserve it I wish he had lost like he and the Lakers should have. It's funny how one lucky game makes all the difference between us anointing a season the all time greatest season and it being nowhere near the top seasons of all time.

[E-Balla]

Great write up. Shaq was great yearly and while the lack of great centers helped him he still was a top 3 player in 94 and 95 as a 2nd and 3rd year player. They got lucky to even make the finals but not having the chance to score 38 a game in the finals should drop you in GOAT rankings do I don't get the argument that it wasn't a great year without the choke or why that matters.

If anything that choke changed the perception of Sheed's career. Imagine if they won that year averaging 18/6.5 on 56TS and then he won in 04. He would be an easy HOF pick instead of being barely in/barely out.

[PCProductions]

B-b-b-but Michael Jordan!!

Anyway, yeah, Shaq 2000 was a coach's nightmare. I wonder if we'll ever see anything like him again.

[nolunch]

Plus shaq padded his numbers in game 2 garbage time when Hakeem dominated him in the first half and had the rockets leading by 22 at half and 19 through 3 Quarters(Shaq scored 23 in the 2nd half)

That game is a classic example of the box score not telling the whole story

29 shots per game !! Olajuwon took more shots than MJ and Kobe.

[GAME TIME]

Kobe bailed Shaq out in game 7 vs the Blazers. If it wasn't for Kobe, Shaq would be out a another chance of winning a ring, which was plauging him up to that point in his career, which many people have forgotten. It was a great season for Shaq, but Kobe clutch perfomances in that playoff run was a major reason of the Lakers winning the chp.

So No to Goat peak

[BattleTested]

Kobe bailed Shaq out in game 7 vs the Blazers. If it wasn't for Kobe, Shaq would be out a another chance of winning a ring, which was plauging him up to that point in his career, which many people have forgotten. It was a great season for Shaq, but Kobe clutch perfomances in that playoff run was a major reason of the Lakers winning the chp.

So No to Goat peak

Kobe had a very good game and played well in the clutch, but no way did he bail Shaq out. Portland were the ones who bailed him out. They came up empty on 13 straight possessions in the 4th quarter and blew a 15 point lead with 11 minutes left. No way the Lakers should have won that game. It still stands as the worst collapse in NBA history by a very significant margin.

[nolunch]

Kobe bailed Shaq out in game 7 vs the Blazers. If it wasn't for Kobe, Shaq would be out a another chance of winning a ring, which was plauging him up to that point in his career, which many people have forgotten. It was a great season for Shaq, but Kobe clutch perfomances in that playoff run was a major reason of the Lakers winning the chp.

So No to Goat peak

Shaq scored half of his 18 pts in the 4th quarter of 2000 WCF Game 7 while he was doubled/tripled through 1st 3 quarters.

[FuShengTHEGreat]

Kobe had a very good game and played well in the clutch, but no way did he bail Shaq out. .

Kobe bailed Shaq's subpar performance out by leading LA in every facet in that Game 7:

Pts: 25 -18
Rebs: 11-9
Blks: 4-1
Asts: 7-5

If defending Finals MVP Tim Duncan wasn't injured those '00 Lakers would've had to have waited another year to win a title and nobody would've been raving about how great Shaq played.