Rank Michael Jordan's Seasons by Offense

[SideshowBob]

Throw each seasonal version of Jordan on any random offense (or say 1000 different offenses). How would you rank them between each other in terms of how much improvement he creates. Not too concerned about box-score production here, but any discussion is welcome.

Prefer seeing just a list, but if anyone wants to get into degree, feel free to do so, as it only better illustrates nuances in opinion.

For example:

91
92
90
etc.

or

91 Jordan will take an average 0 offense to a +7
84 Jordan will take a 0 to a +5

Not looking for anything in particular here, just an exercise considering the Survey Project seems to be going a little slowly right now and breaking it down this way could (or could not) help reorganize some thoughts a bit.

[ceiling raiser]

Good idea, hopefully this reignites the conversation. I have to revise mine, but here are my numbers from the project:

Code: Select all

 Team    Off
85 CHI   3.0
86 CHI   5.5
87 CHI   6.0
88 CHI   7.0
89 CHI   7.0
90 CHI   8.0
91 CHI   8.0
92 CHI   7.5
93 CHI   7.0
95 CHI   4.5
96 CHI   6.5
97 CHI   5.5
98 CHI   4.5
02 WAS   2.0
03 WAS   2.0

As we've discussed for defense, my spread is too large (so that is likely the case here as well), so this FWIW. Relative to each other though, I don't think they're that bad.

[SideshowBob]

Yeah, that's what I'm hoping as well. In this case, I don't think spread matters; as you said we're trying to gauge how they'd stack up relative to each other.

Code: Select all

 Team    SRS

85 CHI   4.0
86 CHI   4.0
87 CHI   5.0
88 CHI   6.0
89 CHI   6.5
90 CHI   7.0
91 CHI   7.0
92 CHI   7.0
93 CHI   6.5

95 CHI   4.5
96 CHI   6.0
97 CHI   5.5
98 CHI   5.5

02 WAS   3.5
03 WAS   3.0


[ceiling raiser]

Yeah, that's what I'm hoping as well. In this case, I don't think spread matters; as you said we're trying to gauge how they'd stack up relative to each other.

Code: Select all

 Team    SRS

85 CHI   4.0
86 CHI   4.0
87 CHI   5.0
88 CHI   6.0
89 CHI   6.5
90 CHI   7.0
91 CHI   7.0
92 CHI   7.0
93 CHI   6.5

95 CHI   4.5
96 CHI   6.0
97 CHI   5.5
98 CHI   5.5

02 WAS   3.5
03 WAS   3.0


Are you thinking of doing one for his defense as well? For his offense I'm having trouble deciding if 87-93 should all be closer (hopefully this thread will be helpful in that regard), but for his D I'm all over the place.

[SideshowBob]

Are you thinking of doing one for his defense as well? For his offense I'm having trouble deciding if 87-93 should all be closer (hopefully this thread will be helpful in that regard), but for his D I'm all over the place.

Yeah, but I wanted to see how this one did first. I'll be honest, I've been pretty liberal with his defense. I've typically just kept his ratings in particular multi-season stretches grouped (98 would be an exception). More ability based than based around actual team performance. Again the idea was to stay probabilistic (ex. He's a +9 player that played like a +7 player but showed that he was capable of sustaining his full level of play if needed, and often did in the PS). And I've done this with everyone, downgrading and upgrading as I saw fit (ex. Lebron doesn't get an extra boost for his play in the 09 playoffs, Jordan doesn't get penalized for the Bulls underperforming in the 93 Regular Season).

[ceiling raiser]

Are you thinking of doing one for his defense as well? For his offense I'm having trouble deciding if 87-93 should all be closer (hopefully this thread will be helpful in that regard), but for his D I'm all over the place.

Yeah, but I wanted to see how this one did first. I'll be honest, I've been pretty liberal with his defense. I've typically just kept his ratings in particular multi-season stretches grouped (98 would be an exception). More ability based than based around actual team performance. Again the idea was to stay probabilistic (ex. He's a +9 player that played like a +7 player but showed that he was capable of sustaining his full level of play if needed, and often did in the PS). And I've done this with everyone, downgrading and upgrading as I saw fit (ex. Lebron doesn't get an extra boost for his play in the 09 playoffs, Jordan doesn't get penalized for the Bulls underperforming in the 93 Regular Season).

Thanks for the response.

Staying on the topic of his O then, how do you separate 87-89 from 90-93? He was kinda asked to do different things each year (coaches play a part in this obviously), though I guess the goal was to figure out the best way to use him on that end while waiting for the supporting cast to develop (especially in 89, after the trade of Oakley for Cartwright).

[Lost92Bricks]

85 +6
86 +4
87 +7
88 +8
89 +8
90 +8
91 +8
92 +7
93 +7
95 +4
96 +7
97+ 6.5
98 +6
02 +3.5
03 +3.5

[SideshowBob]

Thanks for the response.

Staying on the topic of his O then, how do you separate 87-89 from 90-93? He was kinda asked to do different things each year (coaches play a part in this obviously), though I guess the goal was to figure out the best way to use him on that end while waiting for the supporting cast to develop (especially in 89, after the trade of Oakley for Cartwright).

Of course

I kind of wish we had some more detailed numbers for those years, stuff like On/Off 4 factors and % of baskets assisted would be really insightful. I know Dipper's doing some video work with Jordan right now so I'm definitely looking forward to that.

88 and 89 I think could be argued as equals. The only reason I've pegged 89 higher is the archangel display at the end of the year. That's 20 odd games with Jordan dominating the heck out of the ball and the Bulls running at a +5ish offense and +3 till the end of the season. The fact that he displayed that he could do that impresses me, though I don't think its unreasonable to say he probably could have done the same the year prior. I'm on the edge there, I think both seasons are extremely close.

As for separation between that period and the three-peat era, I haven't really put too much distance between his offense because of what you say. Did he show improvement? Definitely, I think its reasonable to argue that his skillset was more refined; slightly improved jumpshot, bit more willingness to shoot the outside shot, more experience in the post, and higher usage in the post (though that's by design), learning to fit into the triangle, slight addition of weight in 92 to help play down low, more frequency and proficiency off the ball (and that's while already being gifted in that regard), better displayed offensive game management ability IMO, all while retaining most of what made him so physically dominant. I think I've stayed a bit conservative with the separation (between pre-threepeat and threepeat) here, I can certainly see the argument for 88/89 being relatively lower, allowing for a larger jump.

[ceiling raiser]

Thanks for the response.

Staying on the topic of his O then, how do you separate 87-89 from 90-93? He was kinda asked to do different things each year (coaches play a part in this obviously), though I guess the goal was to figure out the best way to use him on that end while waiting for the supporting cast to develop (especially in 89, after the trade of Oakley for Cartwright).

Of course

I kind of wish we had some more detailed numbers for those years, stuff like On/Off 4 factors and % of baskets assisted would be really insightful. I know Dipper's doing some video work with Jordan right now so I'm definitely looking forward to that.

88 and 89 I think could be argued as equals. The only reason I've pegged 89 higher is the archangel display at the end of the year. That's 20 odd games with Jordan dominating the heck out of the ball and the Bulls running at a +5ish offense and +3 till the end of the season. The fact that he displayed that he could do that impresses me, though I don't think its unreasonable to say he probably could have done the same the year prior. I'm on the edge there, I think both seasons are extremely close.

As for separation between that period and the three-peat era, I haven't really put too much distance between his offense because of what you say. Did he show improvement? Definitely, I think its reasonable to argue that his skillset was more refined; slightly improved jumpshot, bit more willingness to shoot the outside shot, more experience in the post, and higher usage in the post (though that's by design), learning to fit into the triangle, slight addition of weight in 92 to help play down low, more frequency and proficiency off the ball (and that's while already being gifted in that regard), better displayed offensive game management ability IMO, all while retaining most of what made him so physically dominant. I think I've stayed a bit conservative with the separation (between pre-threepeat and threepeat) here, I can certainly see the argument for 88/89 being relatively lower, allowing for a larger jump.

Good points. What are your thoughts on 86-87 compared to 87-88, 88-89, 89-90 (and thereafter)?

[SideshowBob]

Good points. What are your thoughts on 86-87 compared to 87-88, 88-89, 89-90 (and thereafter)?

TBH, that's the season I've spent the least time on, oddly enough, and the one I'm most iffy with. It also leads be to bring up 86. Given what we saw from him in limited time in 86 (particularly against Boston in the 1st round), I'm inclined to think that a healthy 86 Jordan would have probably been very similar to what we saw in 87.

For my own edification, I'll ask you your own question , what are your thoughts on 87?

[ceiling raiser]

Good points. What are your thoughts on 86-87 compared to 87-88, 88-89, 89-90 (and thereafter)?

TBH, that's the season I've spent the least time on, oddly enough, and the one I'm most iffy with. It also leads be to bring up 86. Given what we saw from him in limited time in 86 (particularly against Boston in the 1st round), I'm inclined to think that a healthy 86 Jordan would have probably been very similar to what we saw in 87.

For my own edification, I'll ask you your own question , what are your thoughts on 87?

Ask me that question in a couple of weeks, I'm in the process of watching whatever tape is available. I do agree about the bolded though

[GSP]

Good idea

85 +4
86 +4
87 +6
88 +6
89 +6.5
90 +7
91 +7.5
92 +7
93 +6.5
95 +4.5
96 +6.5
97 +6
98 +5.5
02 +3.5
03 +3

[ceiling raiser]

Some useful quotes from For The Love of the Game (1998 autobiography):

On scoring in 86-87

It would have been tough, if not impossible to keep scoring like I did during the 86-87 season. I attacked from he opening tip until the last whistle for 82 games. That was my mentality. In terms of physical talent we probably has less on that team than any other Bulls team I played on. I knew I needed to score if we were going to be successful. I’m pretty sure Doug Collins felt the same way. I had one streak of nine straight games with 40 or more points. You have no idea how much energy it takes to score 40 points one night. The difference between averaging 32 PPG over an entire season versus a little over 37 is significant. Think of it this way: If I scored 32 one night then I had to score 42 the next night to get even. But that was a different era. Very few teams were as sophisticated defensively as they are today. And no team, with the exception of Detroit the next season, geared its entire defensive gameplan to shutting down one player. That’s why I’ve always said Wilt Chamberlain never could average 50 points a game today. He couldn’t even lead the league in scoring. What could I have scored playing against John Stockton every night with no double teams? I’d stand in the post and score every time I touhed the ball. That’s not much different than what Wilt did. You want to see Wilt Chamberlain in today’s game? Look at Shaquille O’Neal. That’s a modern version.

On becoming an all-around player in 87-88

Even at the end of my career I was always comparing myself to other players. I wanted to know where I stood, how I matched up, what I needed to work on. I always wanted to be sure I was doing everything i could to stay on top. It never had anything to do with money or business. The game is what mattered to me. In the early years I compared myself to Magic and Larry. What could I do to elevate my game past theirs?

They were great all-around players, but they were never known as great defenders. I realized defense could be my way of separating myself from them. I decided I wanted to be recognized as a player who could influence the game at either end of the floor. The one thing people saw in me that they didn’t see in Magic or Larry was the athletic ability.

They had great talent, but in terms of raw athletic ability I think I had a little more. To some extent I think it was hard for people to believe anyone who jumped and dunked could be a complete player. But that’s what I did at North Carolina and that’s what I was trying to do in the NBA. After the 1987-88 season the critics had to say, “This kid can have an influence at both ends of the court. He’s not just a scorer.” Now when they talked about Magic and Larry they also had to talk about defense. I feel like I made the separation, at least individually, to some extent that season. But I knew I’d never completely be recognized as their equal until we won championships.

On the fadeaway and offensive development in general

I always had the fadeaway but I didn’t have to use it early in my career because I went one-on-one against my opponent. I could face up to that player and break his defense down with my quickness. The Pistons changed the way I attacked. They said, “we’re not going to let you isolate, and any time you start to drive we’re going to close down the land and we’re going to beat you up.” They tried to beat on me from the second I touched the ball all the way through the move. Especially if I was going to the basket. The purpose of the turnaround jump shot was to avoid giving defenders a chance to see me in front of them and react. When I got the ball on the block I was in the danger zone. I could react before they could send help. I didn’t have the ball in front of them so they couldn’t send players at me.

A young player from Duke asked me over the summer why everybody didn’t know I was going to be a great player before I became one. Coming out of high school everyone is individually talented, but no one is defensively focussed. There aren’t many high school kids that get a college scholarship on defense. Now you go to a good school, Duke or North Carolina, where they teach you the fundamentals. You probably can’t score like you did in high school, so they teach you how to develop other parts of your game. You learn to play within a system and you’re not as successful offensively as you were at the high school level. Then you leave college, which is like leaving home. They have been teaching you everything about the game and now you’re out in the world of the NBA . Now you have to put everything you’ve learned in 21 years to work. You have to learn how to apply that knowledge, because as a professional you get some of that old individuality back. There are no zones, the shot clock is 24 seconds, and the systems aren’t as tight as they are in college. But you have to learn how to apply individual talents in game situations that vary from team to team for 82 games. It sounds like an overwhelming challenge. If you’re a student of the game and you’re constantly trying to get better, you won’t be satisfied simply with reaching the highest level of basketball. As long as I played the game I was learning. For me, especially later in my career, the challenge and the learning process was all mental. The physical challenge went away for me a long time ago. I proved I could take off from the free throw line and dunk and lead the league in scoring. After that, the challenges became more and more mental for me.

On scoring in the NBA as of 97-98

There’s nothing easy about leading the NBA in scoring.

I know some players think they could do what I did if they had the kind of freedom I had. But they don’t even have a basic understanding of what it takes to be that consistent over the course of an 82-game season. Before the 1997-98 season, Penny Hardaway told me he was going to win the scoring title and average 40 points a game. Shaquille O’Neal was gone and Hardaway figured he would have all the opportunities. He was serious, too. Do you know how hard it is to average 40 points? That’s 10 points a quarter, every quarter of every game. And that’s just your average. Now, if you don’t score at least 10, then you have to score even more later.

You have to do that while the defense is completely focussed on stopping you from scoring. That means you have to fight off double teams, get to the line, and knock down at least 80 percent of your free throws. All those thing have to happen every single night. Scoring like I do doesn’t happen because a situation changes or a player decides to be more aggressive. You have to study the game, find opportunities. The opportunities you find one night might not be there the next. You have to figure out ways to beat virtually every one of your opponents because you can be damn sure that if you’re scoring that many points every one of your opponents is going to make a point of shutting you down. You have to be aggressive at all times mental, then pick and choose when to attack physically. These kids don’t understand that. They don’t have any understanding of the mental aspect necessary to score 40 points even one night.

You have to be able to adjust constantly. Do you come out at the beginning attacking to distort the entire game to your advantage? Do you try to get everyone else involved so they become a threat and open the floor for you? I haven’t even talked about what you have to do at the defensive end to get easy baskets. Steals, blocked shots, break-aways, all those situations play into a 32-point night. At this stage of their careers, guys such as Hardaway and Grant Hill are getting points strictly off physical talent. Now let’s move to the playoffs, where you’re playing the same team as many as seven times. The adjustments have to come quicker, sometimes between plays. And you have to do all these things with the objective of winning the game. I don’t think any of them are ready for that.

There are actually four other pages that might be useful (Bulls team from his rookie season, 1990 team, discussion of Kobe, and I think maybe the one about the 86 playoffs; I'll see if there's anything interesting about his 88-89 time at PG, but I don't think there is).

[ceiling raiser]

As promised, here are the quotes I mentioned.

84-85 Bulls:

The 1984-85 Bulls team had as much raw talent as any of our championship teams.

But it was all potential.

Most of them didn’t have any idea how to win. Some were looking for that kind of leadership from me, others were not. Guys like Sidney Green, Orlando Woolridge, and David Greenwood were naturally talented, but they weren’t basketball players. Dave Corzine was a basketball player. He couldn’t run or jump, but he knew how to play the game. Rod Higgins was a solid all-around player and he understood the game. Greenwood? He was in it for the money. He never wanted to push himself beyond his comfort zone. I remember twisting my ankle in practice the day before a game. It swelled up pretty good, but I never thought it was bad enough to prevent me from playing. Greenwood walked by as I was getting treatment and said, “With that ankle it would be a week before I played.” The idea of not playing never crossed my mind. I was thinking about how I would compensate, how I would get around the fact I wouldn’t be 100 percent. I notice right off that my appetite for success was much bigger than that of a lot of players. I was motivated because I wanted to succeed. I couldn’t miss a practice much less a game. From my first day in the league to my last, I always felt I had a lot to prove. The only difference between 1984 and 1998 was my expectations of everyone around the game. But my expectations never changed.The better I got the better I wanted to become. But there were a lot of things going on with that first team. Everyone knows there were players doing drugs. I still mingled with my teammates, but I wasn’t going where they were going. And I wasn’t tempted by what was going on around me. I was surprised by some o the people doing drugs, but the act didn’t shock me. I remember thinking, “So this is what professional basketball is about. Doing drugs and trying to play the game.” I could see how players could get misguided if they were weak-minded. I wasn’t a snitch and I never allowed the extracurricular stuff to break my bond with the team. I decided I was going to go out there and let the fans decide the winners and losers. My father always told me, “The cream always rises if you put forth the effort.” That was my focus.

90 Bulls:

I knew we had all the pieces to the puzzle in 1990. Still, we lost 106-81 to Detroit at home in the middle of March in a key game. I remember Isiah Thomas saying “The Central Division race is over.”

All I could think was, “Not yet. You have to be aware of the opposition before you make statements like that.” Over the next six weeks we got to within two games, but we couldn’t catch them. Whatever control they had over us slipped away for good in the 1989 Easter Conference Finals. We had lost to the Pistons 4-2 in the 1989 Conference Finals and I had taken a beating in that series. I promised myself I never would let that happen again. I knew I had to get stronger. If I was going to go into the post, then I was going to have to play like a big guy. I still had my quickness so I knew if I got stronger I could turn the tables. Teams like the Pistons and Knicks had figured the only way to throw me off my game was to throw me out of the air. I’d had enough. I wanted to start dishing out the punishment instead of taking it all the time. We came back from a 2-0 deficit in 1990 to tie the series after six games. We lost in seven games, but Detroit had to know it couldn’t hold us off again. We had the players, we had the system, and, after 1990, we had the confidence. Our time was coming and I knew we never would lose to Pistons again, or anyone else for that matter, when it counted.

On Kobe and Tiger:

The one thing I would tell younger players is to enjoy the moment and be careful not to put themselves into a box others have erected for them. Success will breed higher expectations, but that’s just a natural evolution in our society. You have to know who you are before you can grow as a person and as a player. Look at Kobe Bryant. He doesn’t even know what Kobe Bryant’s game is yet. How could he? He went from high school to an environment in which he has to sink or swim. He’s been able to get by on raw physical ability, but he needs to develop his own foundation before he can become a great player. He can get by borrowing from other players in the short term, but sooner or later he will have to find his own game. That’s why college is so important. If I had come right out of high school into the NBA I don’t think I would have become the same player. I wouldn’t have had the same foundation that North Carolina provided. At the professional level you have to produce. I would have found ways to compete night after night instead of developing a long-term plan.

Can Kobe Bryant become a great player? Sure. But it’s going to take a lot more effort to refine his skills at the same time he’s trying to survive.

Young players also need to know what makes them happy off the floor. What brightens up your day? I don’t think a lot of players ever gain that knowledge about themselves. They think they know. They think watching videos, going out to clubs, or hanging out with a different woman every knight is the answer. If that’s what you think makes you truly happy, then you’re going to get burned, because it’s fleeting. What are you left with when that’s been your focus night after night? Those are the kinds of things I try to tell young players. Those are the kinds of conversations I have with Tiger Woods, too. Slow down. Enjoy life. Take it easy. Don’t make it difficult. I think with all that was thrown at Tiger so quickly, he felt, quite naturally, that he had to live up to the hype. No one can live up to that kind of hype. I learned that a long time ago. It’s something Tiger will have to learn if he wants to perform at a high level and maintain that level for a long time. When I was 21 I was still eating McDonald’s food every day. I wasn’t trying to search for the perfect meal, for the perfect attitude, or the perfect technique. It just happened. That was the beauty of it all. These guys need to learn to live for the moment. Let it flow and see what happens. There is only so much you can control anyway. If you don’t enjoy the process of becoming successful, then there is no beauty in that achievement. Enjoy the day. There will be another one tomorrow. Enjoy life for the sake of of life.

88-89 season:

By the start of the 1988-89 season the challenge was no longer as much physical as it was mental. I was perceived as a great player, but the criticism was still the same: the Bulls all never win a championship with Michael Jordan leading the league in scoring.

They pointed to Wilt, Dominique Wilkins, Bob McAdoo, guys who scored a lot of points but played on teams that weren’t nearly as successful as those players were individual. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was the only player since George Mikan to lead the league in scoring and take his team to a championship. A non-center had never won both in the same season. History presented a great argument for those looking to criticize what I was doing on the floor. Because I was perceived as being more successful than the team, the perception held that I didn’t make the players around me better. But I knew what i could do on the court. That’s why the challenge became more mental. I had to incorporate my ability into a system that made the team better. Doug never really had a system because he relied on individual talent. In that sense, I needed the right players around me to make the team better. That started happening when Horace Grant and Scottie Pippen began developing and Bill became a low-post threat. But it didn’t happen overnight. When Oakley left and Cartwright arrived, I knew I would have to rebound more. Later, when Scottie and Horace became starters, I knew I would have to find ways to get them into the offense. Doug tried everything including moving me to point guard late in the season. That was the fist time all season everything started to click. We won 11 of 14 games during one stretch and I had 10 triple doubles in 11 games. I could see the whole floor and teams no longer could ket on me defensively. For the fist time in my career we had other scoring options and teams had to respect my teammates. But there was still a lot of friction on the team, particularly between Doug and some of the younger players. Still, I knew we had taken a step forward. We lost all six games we played against Cleveland and all five against Detroit during the regular season. But by the time the playoffs started I really thought we could beat anybody.