The best playoffs offenses and defenses since 1974

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The best playoffs offenses and defenses since 1974 

Post#1 » by lorak » Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:25 pm

Usually to evaluate quality of offense/defense we compare team ortg/drtg to league average. That works very good for regular season, but not so well for playoffs (in short: because all teams don’t play with each other). Comparing team ortg/drtg to playoffs league average is even worse.

So IMO the best method is to compare team ortg/drtg in playoffs to expected ortg/drtg. Expected ortg/drtg is based on team and opponent regular season ortg and drtg. For instance team A and team B meets in playoffs. A’s ortg in regular season was 105, B’s drtg in regular season was 103, so expected ortg for team A (and drtg for team B) in playoffs is 104. If team A in playoff series vs team B would have 106 ortg, then their ortg would be +2.0 ortg above expected value.

Top 10 offensive teams according to that method (minimum 10 games played):

Code: Select all

TEAM         G   ORTG   OPP SRS
2005 PHO   15   9,94   5,65
2009 DEN   16   8,31   3,63
2006 SAS   13   7,85   3,95
2003 SAC   12   7,80   5,77
1995 PHO   10   7,71   2,76
2001 LAL   16   7,70   5,48
2010 PHO   16   7,56   4,25
1987 LAL   18   7,42   1,32
1997 HOU   16   6,89   5,67
1987 MIL   12   6,80   3,89


Nash’s Suns are by far the best offensive team ever (well, ever in this case = since 1974). Not only their ortg was much better than expected, but also they played very strong opponents (5.6 average SRS). The best Jordan’s team is 1991 Chicago at 11th place with 6.8 ortg and 2.51 opp SRS.

Top 10 defensive teams:

Code: Select all

TEAM         G   DRTG   OPP SRS
2000 MIA   10   -8,07   1,25
2004 DET   23   -7,62   2,90
2001 LAL   16   -7,20   5,48
2007 NJN   12   -6,83   1,97
1996 UTA   18   -6,79   5,48
2013 NYK   12   -6,70   1,36
2004 NJN   11   -6,25   2,49
1994 IND   16   -6,21   5,38
2002 DET   10   -6,20   0,52
1998 UTA   20   -6,08   4,07


Surprise at 1st plce, but 2000 Heat played weak opponents. The most impressive is what 2001 LAL did – great defense against very strong opponents. They also are among top 10 offensive teams, so It looks like their 2001 run is the best ever. Well, lets check it. All champions since 1974:

Code: Select all

TEAM         G   ORTG   DRTG   NET   OPP SRS
2001 LAL   16   7,7   -7,2   14,9   5,48
1991 CHI   17   6,8   -3,1   9,9   2,51
1996 CHI   18   2,0   -5,9   7,9   4,53
1987 LAL   18   7,4   -0,1   7,5   1,32
1985 LAL   19   6,4   -1,1   7,4   2,95
1989 DET   17   4,1   -3,2   7,3   3,44
1986 BOS   18   5,7   -1,5   7,2   2,83
1998 CHI   21   3,7   -3,2   6,9   4,57
2012 MIA   22   5,6   -1,2   6,8   3,33
2011 DAL   20   5,2   -1,5   6,7   4,40
2009 LAL   23   2,5   -3,6   6,1   3,86
2004 DET   23   -1,8   -7,6   5,9   2,90
1990 DET   20   0,8   -5,1   5,8   2,75
1993 CHI   19   4,9   -0,9   5,8   5,05
1982 LAL   14   4,5   -1,0   5,6   3,84
1974 BOS   18   1,0   -4,5   5,5   3,57
1999 SAS   17   1,6   -3,9   5,4   2,35
2003 SAS   24   0,0   -5,3   5,3   4,15
1981 BOS   17   1,9   -3,3   5,2   3,68
1995 HOU   22   6,6   1,6   5,0   5,77
1983 PHI   13   2,8   -2,2   4,9   4,01
1975 GSW   17   -0,2   -5,1   4,9   2,31
2013 MIA   23   3,0   -1,6   4,6   2,73
1978 WAS   21   2,8   -1,7   4,5   2,79
2006 MIA   23   0,1   -4,1   4,2   3,55
2010 LAL   23   5,5   1,6   3,9   4,10
1994 HOU   23   3,0   -0,9   3,9   4,74
1997 CHI   19   -0,4   -4,2   3,8   5,71
1992 CHI   22   1,3   -2,2   3,5   3,98
1980 LAL   16   2,1   -1,3   3,4   3,86
2002 LAL   19   1,3   -2,1   3,3   5,73
1977 PTB   19   -0,8   -4,1   3,3   3,46
1979 SEA   17   0,4   -2,6   3,0   3,73
2005 SAS   23   3,6   1,0   2,6   3,70
1976 BOS   18   -0,8   -3,2   2,4   1,26
1984 BOS   23   3,6   1,3   2,3   2,63
2007 SAS   20   0,3   -1,7   2,0   4,03
2008 BOS   26   1,3   -0,7   2,0   2,49
1988 LAL   24   4,4   2,9   1,5   2,88
2000 LAL   23   5,7   5,0   0,7   4,82


So 2001 Lakers are indeed far better than any other team in playoffs. No one is really even close and they did it against extremely strong opponents (only 3 champions faced better competition: 1995 Rockets 5.77 SRS, 2002 LAL 5.73 SRS and 1997 Chicago 5.71 SRS). I guess that’s what happens, when two of the top 10-15 peaks of all time play together at the same time.

On the other hand 1987 Lakers looks like overrated team. Their result is of course very good, but they played very weak opponents. Look at opponents SRS among championship teams (from the weakest):
1. 1976 BOS 1.26
2. 1987 LAL 1.32
3. 1975 GSW 2.31
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Re: The best playoffs offenses and defenses since 1974 

Post#2 » by mojay641 » Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:33 am

DavidStern wrote: I guess that’s what happens, when two of the top 10-15 peaks of all time play together at the same time.


you are correct. 01 shaq/kobe are BY FAR the best duo ever. in terms of peak play.
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Re: The best playoffs offenses and defenses since 1974 

Post#3 » by Shot Clock » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:22 pm

DavidStern wrote:The most impressive is what 2001 LAL did – great defense against very strong opponents. They also are among top 10 offensive teams, so It looks like their 2001 run is the best ever. Well, lets check it. All champions since 1974:

So 2001 Lakers are indeed far better than any other team in playoffs. No one is really even close and they did it against extremely strong opponents (only 3 champions faced better competition:

I guess that’s what happens, when two of the top 10-15 peaks of all time play together at the same time.


Or it might have to do with the fact that two of their opponents lost their starting SG to injuries. Taking regular season numbers into account and ignoring key injuries leads us to overvalue

This may be the worst team to ever get associated with a 7.92 SRS ever
D Robinson age 35
Duncan
Danny Ferry - age 34
Antonio Daniels
Terry Porter age 37
anyone involved in that meddling to justice”. NO COLLUSION

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Re: The best playoffs offenses and defenses since 1974 

Post#4 » by Swagalicious » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:25 pm

Shot Clock wrote:
DavidStern wrote:The most impressive is what 2001 LAL did – great defense against very strong opponents. They also are among top 10 offensive teams, so It looks like their 2001 run is the best ever. Well, lets check it. All champions since 1974:

So 2001 Lakers are indeed far better than any other team in playoffs. No one is really even close and they did it against extremely strong opponents (only 3 champions faced better competition:

I guess that’s what happens, when two of the top 10-15 peaks of all time play together at the same time.


Or it might have to do with the fact that two of their opponents lost their starting SG to injuries. Taking regular season numbers into account and ignoring key injuries leads us to overvalue

This may be the worst team to ever get associated with a 7.92 SRS ever
D Robinson age 35
Duncan
Danny Ferry - age 34
Antonio Daniels
Terry Porter age 37



laughable. agenda is clear here. Kobe lit up those starting SG's in the RS just the same, go ahead and check the numbers if you don't believe me.

I'm amazed that the 08 Celtics are nowhere to be found on the Top 10 defense list, and at the bottom of the overall list, though.
Biz Gilwalker wrote:2009 Kobe didn't play defense
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Re: The best playoffs offenses and defenses since 1974 

Post#5 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:36 pm

Yeah, the Shaq/Kobe duo definitely played at a higher level in the 2001 playoffs than any other duo in NBA history, imo. The closest would probably be Shaq/Kobe the other years from '00-'03, Bird and McHale in from '86-'88 and Jordan/Pippen in '92 and '96.

What made the duo so unstoppable when they were on the same page is that the Lakers would start off looking to go to Shaq inside and if teams weren't sending hard doubles, were ineffective with their doubles or he was just dominating anyway, they'd usually ride him for a 40/20 type game or at least 35/15 while often getting opposing front lines into foul trouble and picking up 4-5 assists while creating a number of additional opportunities. However, if teams were sending hard doubles, or Shaq was just held in check, they'd go to Kobe more and he could also go off for 35-40 points on any given night with a variety of mid-range shots and athletic finishes, plus, he was doing a great job setting up the offense and facilitating and also crashing the boards hard so it wasn't uncommon for him to end up around a double-double. Typically, when you don't have a 3rd player who can create his own shot at all and your top 3-5 most valuable players are Fisher, 35 year old Horace Grant and Rick Fox, you won't win a title, much less be the most dominant postseason team in NBA history, but with Shaq and Kobe playing like hands down the 2 best players in the game during the postseason and fitting together so well, that's all they needed, especially since those players did exactly what they needed to in their roles. Fisher came back from his injury late in the '01 season as a much improved shooter and really came into his own as a legit NBA role player who not only played solid defense back then, but was on the best shooting streak of his career, especially during the Spurs series which turned out to be the perfect complement to Shaq and Kobe's individual dominance since Shaq would often get the ball in the post or Kobe would be handling on the perimeter so a spot up shooter on a hot streak probably fit better than a 3rd scorer. Horace Grant had lost quite a bit of athleticism and offensive ability as he only averaged 6 ppg on 38.5% shooting during the playoffs, but he was always a very good defender and he added bulk so his post defense ended up being huge vs the extremely talented 4s they faced in Sheed, C-Webb and Duncan, respectively. Fox also really found his spot in the triangle that year and emerged as a solid contributor and key role player getting easy and opportunistic baskets with smart cuts while playing solid defense on a consistent basis. He was sort of the glue guy for that '01 team.

It's easy to see why that '01 team had a much higher ceiling than the 2000 team. Grant provided the post defense vs the bigger 4s they badly lacked in 2000 as Sheed and C-Webb had dominated them during the 2000 playoffs, while Fox not only turned out to be a better fit in the triangle than Rice who accepted his role and gave them a big improvement defensively, but he even shot a significantly better 3P% than Glen Rice that year while making more, and when Fisher came back as an improved shooter, he gave them an outside threat they really lacked the previous year when Harper was starting since Harper gave opposing teams free reign to play off him and use his man to double Shaq whenever they wanted. Additionally, Kobe not only improved as a player in 2001, but showed added maturity in the 2001 playoffs and became the facilitator Phil had wanted him to be. Kobe was a couple of years away from his prime at just 22, but he played the best ball I've seen from an all around standpoint to this day in the '01 playoffs other than 2008, and Shaq was right back at his peak 2000 level in the second half of the '01 season and the playoffs. In fact, 2001 Shaq and Kobe may be the best case you can make for a team haviung the 2 best players in the game on the same team, and I'm only hesitant to label them that because of Kobe's erratic regular season, but I'd still have him 3rd behind only Shaq and Duncan.

With all that said, I don't think their competition was as tough as those stats suggest. While Portland had declined from 2000, they still had the talent to compare to any team, but I don't think they ever recovered from their collapse in the 4th quarter oif game 7 during the 2000 WCF. They had started the season playing up to their potential at 30-11, but badly underachieved the rest of the way finishing 20-21. It was clear they were imploding in the playoffs with Sheed's meltdowns and the team tuning out Dunleavy. Sacramento also had the talent to compare to any team, but I've never been sure whether they were legit contenders or pretenders before they traded Williams for Bibby. The Spurs were obviously a great team during the regular season, but LA didn't face that team since the Spurs lost their second leading scorer and primary perimeter threat Derek Anderson to injury in game 1 of the WCSF vs Dallas. Anderson had a very solid season in San Antonio, and after he got used to their system, he played like a borderline all-star. He a good slasher, athletic, a very good 3 point shooter(40%) and a solid passer. They did have Antonio Daniels to fill in, and Daniels was an athletic combo guard who passed well, could create off the dribble pretty well and finish as well as shoot 3s(41%) and was another threat as evidenced by his numbers in 23 games as a starter during the regular season(12.4 ppg, 5.5 apg, 2.0 TO, 47 FG%, 43.8 3P%, 56.4 TS%) and the 17.3 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.4 TO, 49 FG% and 59.1 TS% he averaged in the 8 playoff games he started. But he was still no Derek Anderson and the team was obviously much stronger with both players as opposed to one. The Spurs also clearly lacked length and athleticism with their perimeter defenders, especially with Anderson out which was a reason Kobe lit them up. Their perimeter players were old and slow like 38 year old Terry Porter or too small to defend Kobe who destroyed them. Don't forget that this was the year before the Spurs got Bruce Bowen. As for Philly, they were definitely a tough, competitive team who were as good as any team defensively and on the boards, well-coached and had a top 5 player in Iverson carrying the offense, but they lacked offensive support and just didn't have the talent to beat LA.

I wouldn't call LA's competition weak, but it doesn't really stand out to me as strong either, but that's usually the case with such dominant playoff runs. A good example of how dominant the duo could be is the Sacramento series. Shaq opens the series with back to back 40/20 games, the only time a player has had back to back 40/20 playoff games in NBA history and after each game, the Kings keep talking about doing a better job with their double teams, which they do in game 3, but Kobe ends up with 36 points to essentially put them away and then puts the final nail in their coffin with 48/16 in game 4. Then Kobe has the aforementioned advantage vs the Spurs in the WCF and completely embarrasses them opening up with 45/10 before going on to average 33/7/7 on 51%. Then vs Philly, Larry Brown preferred not to double as much as other teams and Shaq takes advantage dominating Mutombo with a 44/20/5 game 1, a near quadruple double in game 2 with 28/20/9/8 and averages of 33/16/5/3, 57% for the series. It's pretty much unfair to have two players playing like that.

The 2004 Pistons are another very memorable team who like the Lakers, weren't really there until the second half of the season. The difference is that the Lakers pretty much had their core on their roster, but a few problems hadn't been sorted out yet and Fisher hadn't returned, while Detroit went to another level after the Sheed trade. In fact, the '04 Pistons were probably the best defensive team I've ever seen after the Sheed trade. I didn't think they'd win because of their mediocre offense, but their defense was so dominant they surprised me and most NBA fans. I've always been curious to know their regular season defensive rating after the Sheed trade. Big Ben was not only a dominant shot blocker and rebounder, but all over the court defensively, provided the energy of prime Rodman and had to be up there with KG and Duncan as the game's premier defensive players at the time. Larry Brown was even running plays for him early to get him involved in the offense and despite his lack of skill, he was active contributing 10.3 ppg and 4.1 ORPG during the postseason. Sheed was still at the tail end of his prime, and while he wasn't as consistently dominant in the post as he was around 2000, he still hadn't completely fallen in love with 3s yet, was in a role that was comfortable for him, gave them an additional scoring threat in the post and as a stretch 4, and most importantly, gave them another excellent defender who like Big Ben, could defend screen/rolls and defend all over the floor as well as block and alter shots around the rim and he was an excellent post defender. Rip was an off the ball and mid-range/in between game specialist which fit well with Chauncey who liked the ball in his hands and shot a lot of 3s.

Also not surprised to see the '89 Pistons up there. We know they had a great defense, but they went to another level after trading Dantley for Aguirre and went 30-6 with Aguirre in the regular season and 28-4 after Aguirre entered their starting lineup. They had a bunch of legit options with Isiah, Dumars and Vinnie all capable of going off and being their big backcourt scorer depending on the game, and the offensive load was split pretty even between those guards and Aguirre who was one of those 80's small forwards who had a lethal mid-range and post game and had actually averaged 25 ppg as the leading scorer on a Mavs team that had taken the champions Lakers to game 7 of the WCF the previous year. Not to mention Laimbeer who was another offensive threat as a center who stretched the defense as well as Rodman's ability to defend 3-4 positions at the time and Detroit's +4.6 rpg advantage which is truly dominant. That team was loaded at both ends.

Interesting how these teams, particularly the '01 Lakers and '04 Pistons don't look as great as they were with the whole regular season in mind, but late in the regular season and playoffs, they certainly stand out as all-time great teams to me.
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Re: The best playoffs offenses and defenses since 1974 

Post#6 » by Shot Clock » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:45 pm

Swagalicious wrote:
Shot Clock wrote:
DavidStern wrote:The most impressive is what 2001 LAL did – great defense against very strong opponents. They also are among top 10 offensive teams, so It looks like their 2001 run is the best ever. Well, lets check it. All champions since 1974:

So 2001 Lakers are indeed far better than any other team in playoffs. No one is really even close and they did it against extremely strong opponents (only 3 champions faced better competition:

I guess that’s what happens, when two of the top 10-15 peaks of all time play together at the same time.


Or it might have to do with the fact that two of their opponents lost their starting SG to injuries. Taking regular season numbers into account and ignoring key injuries leads us to overvalue

This may be the worst team to ever get associated with a 7.92 SRS ever
D Robinson age 35
Duncan
Danny Ferry - age 34
Antonio Daniels
Terry Porter age 37



laughable. agenda is clear here. Kobe lit up those starting SG's in the RS just the same, go ahead and check the numbers if you don't believe me.


So you think that is a good team? Really?

And you think a team that loses it's second leading scorer and starting SG is as good as it is in the regular season?

This has nothing to do with Kobe. It has to do with establishing a rating for a team based on the regular season which is not representative of them in the playoffs.
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Re: The best playoffs offenses and defenses since 1974 

Post#7 » by lorak » Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:00 pm

Shot Clock wrote:
DavidStern wrote:The most impressive is what 2001 LAL did – great defense against very strong opponents. They also are among top 10 offensive teams, so It looks like their 2001 run is the best ever. Well, lets check it. All champions since 1974:

So 2001 Lakers are indeed far better than any other team in playoffs. No one is really even close and they did it against extremely strong opponents (only 3 champions faced better competition:

I guess that’s what happens, when two of the top 10-15 peaks of all time play together at the same time.


Or it might have to do with the fact that two of their opponents lost their starting SG to injuries. Taking regular season numbers into account and ignoring key injuries leads us to overvalue


I agree. But the problem is with data: what were key injuries during every season and how important were missing players (for instance: how much 2001 Spurs SRS was worse without Derek Anderson?).

Anyway, I will add some more information.

1. Best "dynasties", so championship teams (and Dr J runs to the finals):

Code: Select all

(diff+SRS is very simple "metric" to describe how good dynasty was)

ortg   drtg   dif   opp SRS   diff+srs   PLAYER
2,97   -3,20   6,17   4,42   10,58   Jordan
4,45   -0,81   5,26   4,72   9,98   Kobe
3,48   -1,65   5,13   4,81   9,93   Shaq
4,74   0,33   4,41   5,24   9,66   Hakeem
2,28   -4,21   6,49   3,07   9,56   Isiah 
3,98   -1,01   4,99   3,98   8,97   Kobe w/o Shaq
0,62   -4,72   5,34   3,41   8,75   Drob
4,31   -1,37   5,68   3,02   8,70   LeBron
5,03   0,15   4,88   2,90   7,79   Magic
3,75   -0,92   4,67   3,00   7,67   Bird
1,36   -2,43   3,79   3,64   7,43   Duncan
2,07   -0,24   2,31   3,86   6,17   Duncan w/o Drob
0,59   -1,02   1,61   3,71   5,31   Dr J runs to the finals


Jordan’s six championship teams are clearly the best dynasty since 1974. Very good on both ends of the floor and strong opponents. Second place is surprise for me – of course Kobe played with Shaq (and Shaq’s teams alone also look very good), but even without O’Neal Bryant’s two team in 2009 and 2010 are among the best (and offensively better than Jordan’s Bulls).

On the other hand I’m very disappointed with Erving’s runs to the finals – easily the weakest dynasty here. Dunan’s teams without DRob also were weak, as well as Magic’s or Bird’s.

The best offensive dynasty is of course Showtime and Hakeem’s two title runs at second place. LeBron is also really high and Kobe, Shaq and Bird are also better than Jordan’s teams. Defensively two Spurs teams with DRob are the best with Bad Boys close second and Jordan’s Bulls at third place (BTW, it seems Chicago in playoffs was better defensively than offensively).

Hakeem faced the strongest opponents, with Shaq and Kobe close 2nd/3rd. On the other hand Magic’s teams played the weakest opponents, with Bird, LeBron and Isiah close 2nd/3rd/4th.

2. One more table – career or playoffs runs with one team

Code: Select all

ortg   drtg   dif   opp SRS   diff+srs   PLAYER
2,05   -2,10   4,15   4,60   8,75   Jordan
3,27   0,15   3,12   5,07   8,20   Shaq LAL
2,75   -1,62   4,37   3,38   7,75   LeBron MIA
1,78   -1,56   3,34   3,88   7,22   Isiah 
2,67   0,39   2,28   4,91   7,19   Kobe
5,72   3,15   2,57   4,41   6,98   Nash PHO
4,03   0,41   3,62   3,15   6,77   Magic 
2,07   -0,03   2,10   4,47   6,57   Hakeem
1,01   -2,23   3,24   3,21   6,45   LeBron
2,15   0,20   1,95   4,12   6,07   Shaq
1,95   0,68   1,27   4,70   5,97   Kobe w/o Shaq
0,52   -1,50   2,02   3,95   5,97   Duncan
4,50   3,44   1,06   4,89   5,95   Nash
-0,41   -2,05   1,63   3,75   5,39   Drob
1,24   -0,36   1,60   3,75   5,36   Dr J
1,07   -0,31   1,38   3,94   5,33   Duncan w/o Drob
-0,58   -2,78   2,20   3,06   5,26   LeBron CLE
-0,29   -2,44   2,16   2,69   4,84   Shaq MIA
2,20   0,79   1,42   3,26   4,67   Bird
2,61   3,91   -1,30   5,63   4,33   Nash DAL
2,07   2,44   -0,37   4,63   4,26   Drexler
-0,31   0,16   -0,47   3,48   3,01   Drob w/o Duncan
3,39   3,83   -0,44   3,38   2,94   Shaq ORL
1,38   3,20   -1,82   4,04   2,22   Drexler PTB


Again Jordan is simply the best. Offensively Nash’s Phoenix teams are by far the best (and LeBron’s Cavs the worst with DRob’s close second), while defensively it’s really interesting, because LeBron’s Cavs are the best (Varejao the most underrated defender ever?), with Miami’s Shaq, Jordan and DRob next.

I’m really disappointed with Drexler’s teams result. His time in Portland is the worst here, offensively Blazers were quite ok, but defensively even worse than Nash’s Suns! Bird’s teams also look worse than I thought. The weakest opponents: Shaq in Miami, LeBron, Magic and Bird. The strongest: Nash in Dallas, Shaq in LAL and Kobe.

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