Is Al Jefferson's Dominance Going Completely Unnoticed?

[HornetJail]

Al Jefferson has been an above average center for years. He's always been a really good post scorer, but his rebounding, defense, and passing always left something to be desired.

Fast forward to 2013-14, he's signed a large contract with Charlotte, a young team on the rise. He struggled to start the season, injuring his ankle in the preseason, spending nearly a month on the sidelines and was slow to come to form, playing slowly and ineffectively, only averaging 16/8 and being a liability on defense. He shook off the initial rust and came to play in the month of December and averaged a much more characteristic 17.7/11.5, but the Bobcats weren't winning games. He still looked a step slow on defense and despite being a steady force on a team that dreadfully needed one, something was still missing, despite 22 consecutive games of double-digit scoring.

Al Jefferson had a coming out party in a Jan 14 win against the Knicks, where he went 14/20 for 35 points and 8 boards. Incidentally, it was the same night MKG returned from breaking his hand. Since Jan 14, Al Jefferson has enjoyed an incredible 18-game-and-counting stretch. He's averaged 27.3ppg (including seven 30 point games in his last 12, and two more over the 18-game stretch), 11.2rpg, and has recorded 9 or more FGM in all but two games. He's been cooking and so has the team, the Bobcats are 11-7 over this stretch, and there are impressive wins against good teams like the Clippers, Nuggets, Warriors, Mavericks, Raptors,...

Al Jefferson has been everything everyone expected, and then some. He's been a go-to option whenever the Cats have needed it, and he has bought into our team defense, and is playing better defensively than most people expect. The Bobcats are the #7 defense in the NBA right now and a lot of it is because Steve Clifford is putting Big Al into a position where he can succeed even defensively. Jefferson has also improved his passing, averaging more than a pair of assists a game- he's tied his career-high in assists (7) twice this season and will pass the rock when he needs to.

His assist percentages are at a career-best, as are his rebound percentages (DR% 7th in the league), and his turnover percentages are second best to his 2011-12 season (currently 4th in the league, and the top starter), all despite a career high (5th in the league) in usage percentage. His Drtg (99, 12th in the league!) is better than it's ever been and he's on pace to set a career best in DWS (13th in the league).

Al Jefferson continues to be a terror in the paint and is only going to keep rising from his current ranking of 15th in ppg (20.8/game), as he's upped his scoring every month this season.
October: 13ppg/8rpg (1 game)
November: 16.1ppg/7.9rpg (7 games)
December: 17.7ppg/11.5rpg (15 games)
January: 23.9ppg/11.3rpg (16 games, including terrible start)
February: 25.3ppg/9.5rpg (8 games and counting)

Is Al Jefferson an All-Star snub yet?

[Amare_1_Knicks]

Hard to fit the word "dominance" to a player on a team that's 4 games under .500, 25th in PPG, 25th in ORTG and 24th in FG% but I do agree. 27.3PPG/11.2RPG/2.6APG on 54%FG over his last 18 -- a stretch where the "lowly" Bobcats went 11-7 is impressive. In that same stretch they had wins over LAC, DAL, GSW, DEN & TOR.

Definitely more deserving of an all star game appearance over Noah & Millsap. Statistically he was the best big man in the East, and with the Bobcats holding down and 8th seed spot at the time, I can't imagine why he was snubbed.

[Witzig-Okashi]

Yes, it is. Though I won't go as far to say he deserve a spot over Noah and Millsap (the Hawks were 4 games above .500 when he received the bid, Noah's all-around #s, especially assists, probably played a huge factor, but I think Big Al was still a snub....)

I can't recall when the last time Big Al has had a stretch like this, but I wonder if it does have anything to do with the team record at the time. I don't think the Bobcats were in playoff position at the time when the reserves were mentioned, but I could be wrong about that. Afflalo is having a career year, and he wasn't even considered because of the Magic's record.

It's nice to see, though. I would like to see the Bobcats get into the playoffs one last time with that name....

[HornetJail]

Well this thread was a total curse. Al Jefferson of course follows this up with a dud. He had just 6 points and 9 rebounds on probably his worst shooting all season against the Grizz.

Cats still won though, mainly because Kemba and Biyombo were exceptional.

[Witzig-Okashi]

Well this thread was a total curse. Al Jefferson of course follows this up with a dud. He had just 6 points and 9 rebounds on probably his worst shooting all season against the Grizz.

Cats still won though, mainly because Kemba and Biyombo were exceptional.

Well, it was against the Grizz. It's good on their part that they were able to pull of a W w/o Jefferson having to get 20/10 or anything close to it....

[ronnymac2]

Excellent post, OP. Big Al has been a monster for the past several weeks. He's up there with Brook Lopez for having the best post moves in the game today. He isn't the most mobile defensive anchor, but he plays a key role on stingy defense. Charlotte is up there with IND as being one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, and Jefferson being seventh in defensive rebound rate plays a big part in that.

I don't know if he got snubbed per see, because Noah and Millsap are having excellent years, too, but Jefferson is certainly an all-star caliber player. I think he's in contention to make an ALL-NBA team as well if he plays this way the rest of the way and CHA makes the playoffs.

[mysticbb]

I don't know if he got snubbed per see, because Noah and Millsap are having excellent years, too, but Jefferson is certainly an all-star caliber player.

Offensively? Yes, but defensively he is still a below average player, while even clearly below league average for a big.

Also, Jefferson had similar stretches in the past, where he showed his offensive potential, but ending up being about average in overall impact due to being not that efficient with the usage of his opportunities as well as being the defender he is. It may look more "impressive" on the "Hornets" now, but that is mostly due to the complete lack of any kind of other offensive interior talent. So, yeah, I noticed the raw ppg and rpg numbers, but also noticed the incredible high usage. His ORtg for those 18 games is 107, really not that impressive. So, yeah, I hardly would call it "dominance".

[Quotatious]

Excellent season so far from him. He's a joy to watch on offense, probably the most skilled post scorer in the league today with Randolph and Duncan. Oddly enough, Big Al and Z-Bo has historically been (and still are) low efficiency scorers. They just look better via eyetest than their actually value is. That being said, Jefferson is clearly one of the top big guys in the NBA right now. Top 10 is a lock. I've been relatively impressed with his defense in the Bobcats games that I've seen (just a few tho). Bobcats have been a borderline top 5 defensive team so far this season, and I don't think it'd be possible if Jefferson was such a bad defender as some guys say.

Honestly, I think he's on par with LaMarcus Aldridge. Similar scorers, passers (nothing special in this regard, but both take FANTASTIC care of the ball, hovering around 7% TOV - Dirk is another guy with the same ability to protect the rock - I think it's oftentimes overlooked, but not turning the ball over is very crucial), and before this season, Jefferson was clearly a better rebounder than LMA.

Thanks to him, Bobcats are a playoff team right now. That's a huge improvement compared to the last season - I mean, they already won 6 more games compared to the previous campaign, when they finished 21-61. Obviously it's Al's addition that made it happen. I'm disappointed that he didn't get the All-Star nod. Could've made it over Millsap or Bosh. I hope that he'll sustain this level of play and make it next year. It'd be very well-deserved.

BTW. Has any players with so many seasons with PER over 20 never made an All-Star appearance? (Jefferson is going to post his 6th 20+ PER campaign this year, and he also had two more seasons with 19+ PER, playing 30+ MPG). Anybody knows? I suspect that Al might be the first ever.

[tsherkin]

He's had a pretty nice run. His early season was terrible, and thus his seasonal numbers are awful, but injury, awful spacing, unimpressive coaching and so forth have contributed there. We know he isn't a superstar talent, so rising above such issues isn't easy. He is better than his seasonal averages and such indicate.

Had a nice run in January in terms of scoring efficiency, but he's been right back to crap in February.

23.9 ppg on 53.7% FG, 55.9% TS, 105 ORTG over 16 games in January. Had that 40-point outburst. Had some really nice games at the end of the month consecutively against Chicago, New York, Denver and the Lakers.

Weak offensive rebounding, though it's partially due to coaching, his big issue is that his eFG% was 53.8%, barely above his actual FG% (which itself was actually quite good, better than his usual fare), and he isn't much of a passer, although Charlotte isn't set up with the right roster talent or system to exploit what he can do (as evidenced by his time in Utah).

He's got some fantastic moves that help him get free for a 44% hook shot, you know?

"Excellent season" would be a terrible misnomer for his 103 ORTG season to date, however; 20.5 ppg and 10.4 rpg in 33.8 mpg looks really nice (especially with 7.0% TOV), but 51.4% TS and 103 ORTG really undercut the relevance of those numbers. It feels a lot like a Z-Bo season: big averages, but not really all that worth it in terms of a push towards contention. Naturally, the Cats would be a lot worse-off without him, so there's hidden value there and as I've mentioned repeatedly, he's underperforming compared to his usual level as a result of several factors, but it would be more accurate to say he had a really good month than he's having a really good season. It'd be tough for most players to look good on that squad and Al was never really a jaw-dropper to begin with, just solid enough in the right context.

A tad unfair to ask of him to carry the weight of a franchise on his shoulders, since he isn't that sort of player, also, especially with so little support.

[ShaqAttack3234]

Good post, and enjoyable read. Interesting to hear about players who aren't mentioned much. The only part I didn't enjoy was being reminded of Big Al's breakout game vs the Knicks. He's always had a great touch inside, excellent footwork and one of the best offensive skill sets in the low post so I find him enjoyable to watch when I get a chance(which isn't that much) despite the flaws in his game. He could end up being another Zach Randolph, whose perception changed dramatically once he found himself in a good situation as a Grizzlie in 2010 and matured as a player and person.

[KembaWalker]

best player on the 3-8 teams in the East

not even an allstar

gj league

[tsherkin]

Good post, and enjoyable read. Interesting to hear about players who aren't mentioned much. The only part I didn't enjoy was being reminded of Big Al's breakout game vs the Knicks. He's always had a great touch inside, excellent footwork and one of the best offensive skill sets in the low post so I find him enjoyable to watch when I get a chance(which isn't that much) despite the flaws in his game. He could end up being another Zach Randolph, whose perception changed dramatically once he found himself in a good situation as a Grizzlie in 2010 and matured as a player and person.

Z-Bo's perception changed when he played on a good team. His best skill is his rebounding and his decent jumper. He's still not that good a value as a volume scorer, but in the context of Memphis' team game, he works.

Jefferson is much the same. He's better than just "aww, his efficiency is dirt-ass crap, he sucks," and he's better than he's played this season, but his utility is more that of a second or third star on a good team, that's all. His offensive game is, in some ways, like LMA's. Aldridge is just ALSO a really good defender, so he's more valuable.

best player on the 3-8 teams in the East

not even an allstar

gj league

His seasonal performance goes beyond one month, though, and his actual production has not correlated with significant team success. This isn't really a substantive point, KW.

3-8 in the EC goes Toronto, Chicago, Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta and Brooklyn.

Al is not the best player on most of those teams, let alone all of them. Lowry (as he's played this season), Noah, Horford, Pierce and Deron Williams are all better than him... and you can make other arguments for a few other players. And that doesn't include injured players like Brook Lopez, Derrick Rose, etc.

Al's good, but let's not get overzealous here.

[Doctor MJ]

Al Jefferson continues to be a terror in the paint and is only going to keep rising from his current ranking of 15th in ppg (20.8/game), as he's upped his scoring every month this season.
October: 13ppg/8rpg (1 game)
November: 16.1ppg/7.9rpg (7 games)
December: 17.7ppg/11.5rpg (15 games)
January: 23.9ppg/11.3rpg (16 games, including terrible start)
February: 25.3ppg/9.5rpg (8 games and counting)

Is Al Jefferson an All-Star snub yet?

Easy answer sure seems to be: A player who starts playing in a league that starts in October who starts playing like an all-star partway through January probably won't be named to a February All-Star game and hence shouldn't be seen as a snub when what you'd expect to happen happens.

But I'll also note that Jefferson's scoring numbers for the season look a lot like they've looked in the past. He's been a guy whose only a star for his scoring who gets you 20 PPG on poor efficiency while playing a position that the current NBA strategy typically says you shouldn't let volume score unless you're very strong in efficiency. If his current streak becomes his new norm that's noteworthy, but it's too early for me to go there.

[tsherkin]

If his current streak becomes his new norm that's noteworthy, but it's too early for me to go there.

Streak's already over, Doc; so far in February, Jefferson's played 9 games at 51.2% TS and 98 ORTG.

Streak's been dead a while

[KembaWalker]

the human TS% googler dropping mad knowledge once again. I feel so educated now that I know Paul Pierce is better than Al Jefferson. Thanks buddy. I guess Anthony Tolliver is better than DeMar DeRozan.

your shtick is getting stale

[tsherkin]

the human TS% googler dropping mad knowledge once again. I feel so educated now that I know Paul Pierce is better than Al Jefferson. Thanks buddy. I guess Anthony Tolliver is better than DeMar DeRozan.

I'm assuming that you're trying to get a rise out of me but the basis of my comment isn't rooted only in TS%.

Like most volume chuckers, right now Al Jefferson's primary value is in keeping Charlotte from being a lot worse than the mediocre to poor they already are. You're getting hot under the collar because they're currently a playoff team as a 27-30 team.

They're sub-.500 and they are the 6th seed, which says everything which needs be said about the meaning of that particular achievement. They're presently a -2.14 SRS team rocking the 6th-worst offense in the league, meaning that Jefferson's offensive utility hasn't been significant... which is obviously true apart from the month of January. He's been PUTRID in February, he was putrid to start the season, and a hot streak in one month doesn't really change that.

The team is winning, when they do, on the basis of defensive efficacy, and he's very clearly not a particularly impressive defender. You're talking about a weak squad and trying to sell high on a player who isn't providing more value than usual (considerably less, in fact), and no one's buying. Why should they?

Jefferson is a solid player, for sure, and when he's playing on slightly better teams, and when he's healthy, he's surely better than what he's showing. January was just a streak, though, not who he has been as a player for the last decade. That much should be self-evident at this point.

[CousinOfDeath]

the human TS% googler dropping mad knowledge once again. I feel so educated now that I know Paul Pierce is better than Al Jefferson. Thanks buddy. I guess Anthony Tolliver is better than DeMar DeRozan.

your shtick is getting stale

Did you make this post from the year 2004?

[KembaWalker]

the human TS% googler dropping mad knowledge once again. I feel so educated now that I know Paul Pierce is better than Al Jefferson. Thanks buddy. I guess Anthony Tolliver is better than DeMar DeRozan.

your shtick is getting stale

Did you make this post from the year 2004?

yes the last 10 years have brought a new age of advanced statistics that have shone a new light into how the game of basketball is played and won. mainly the TS% which is above all else the god of stats. nothing else is relevant. get on board son

this is the era where Paul Pierce and Deron Williams 13 ppg are more valuable than a 20/10 center anchoring a top 10 defense. I'm thankful to be able to witness an era where we are so enlightened

[Jase]

Hard to fit the word "dominance" to a player on a team that's 4 games under .500,

This was my first thought, too. I love how once a player is having a very good year, or a great stretch, then all of a sudden they are "dominating" and "underrated." That said, Jefferson HAS been underrated for awhile, but that is because he's been on losing teams and he should be an elite rebounder. As of now, his team is holding on to the last Playoff spot in a terrible conference. So I wouldn't say Big Al is "dominating." And what he did in B2B against Detroit doesn't put the nail in the coffin. Heck, Biz could score a double-double against Detroit this year. I think the additions of Neal and Ridnour are going to help the 'Cats, and as a result, Jefferson. Veteran leadership to mix with some young talent.

Good for Jefferson for going to a then-garbage team because they offered him the most money, then having a solid year.

[tsherkin]

yes the last 10 years have brought a new age of advanced statistics that have shone a new light into how the game of basketball is played and won. mainly the TS% which is above all else the god of stats. nothing else is relevant. get on board son

this is the era where Paul Pierce and Deron Williams 13 ppg are more valuable than a 20/10 center anchoring a top 10 defense. I'm thankful to be able to witness an era where we are so enlightened

Your problem is the assumption that volume scoring ineffectively is of comparable value to someone like Deron, who may not score that much, but is impacting a team offensively to a degree greater than Jefferson.

Now, a fair counterpoint is that he's played only 37 games, starting only 31. If you want to measure value, then there's a good way to mitigate the difference between the two. If you do that, though, then you also have to factor in Jefferson's play without consideration for the injury, to leave them on a similar playing field. That means looking beyond the one month that Al couldn't sustain, and including the stretches of craptastic basketball he's played besides that. And if we consider healthy Jefferson, then we have to consider healthy Deron.

Williams' numbers are a little touchy right now, so he's more of a debatable inclusion. But what you're not really addressing here is that 20 ppg in a vacuum doesn't mean much. On the balance of the season, Jefferson has been terrible, and he's done it on a terrible team that hasn't won that much and isn't any good on offense. In fact, the Bobcats are TERRIBLE on offense. During January, Jefferson was playing on a different level, but we've got REAMS of history in this season and in many others that prove that to have been an unsustainable streak.

Meantime, you're acting like Jefferson's defense is magically and suddenly capable of being a primary component of a top-10 defense, ignoring his poor defensive fundamentals and history. If he were that good a defender, we'd have had that discussion a long time ago. FWIW, the Cats are 5-4 without him, 22-26 with him. They're winning in spite of him in February.

He's still having some big games in February, even though on balance his numbers are bad, and it's helping them to wins. Because he's a good player when he's healthy. But your response to criticism of him is the same as your response to criticism of any Charlotte player: disproportionate to reality. It's important to remember that a player can be good without being the best, and he doesn't have to be a top-10 player in the league to be well-regarded.

As Doc said, the All-Star game is a February game. The Cats were 14-18 before January, 7-9 in January and are 6-3 since then. Most of their success has come since the voting finished, or at least well past the point where he should have been considered... and there are many deserving players in the conference who were better choices than him.

Fixating on PPG on a team that's so pathetic offensively doesn't really mean a lot. His defensive rebounding has been valuable: he and Biyombo do a good job there. Of course, his defensive on/off isn't flattering, the eye test doesn't sell him as a good defender and really none of the metrics support the notion that he's a strong defender. No angle apart from defensive rebounding really plays him up on that side of the floor. His offensive value has been essentially meaningless, since the Cats are no better on that end of the floor than were they last season. Defensively, the team has changed of course, but to attribute all of that to Jefferson would be a mistake, otherwise we would have similar fairly similar impact on deeper Minnesota and Utah teams earlier in his career. Certainly, though, his rebounding has been good: unlike some rebounders, his defensive rebounding hasn't been at the expensive of others. The Cats are presently the best defensive rebounding team in the league and are top 4 in terms of denying the opposition offensive rebounds which, since they play at a middling pace, isn't the result of a crazy slow-down game. They kill the boards and deny second chances, and he's a big part of that. But that's not why they made such a massive leap on the defensive end.

He's not a dominant player. This is his 10th season, he's not some young pup we've never seen before and he's not really that different a player compared to who he was in previous years. We know who he is, how he plays, what his general level of impact is, and it isn't as a dominant, game-changing defender. That's from a mixture of other factors (not to ignore the ridiculously bad conference, either) and he's been just as hindered on D as he has been on O by his injuries and the like.

You want to believe that what I'm saying is unfair criticism, because you always want to believe that about your players, but it's just the way things are in this case. Al's a good player, better than he's been, but you're overrating him.