Replace Dirk With Prime Barkley on the Mavs from 05-11

[The Infamous1]

2005 Mavs- 1988 Barkley
2006 Mavs- 1989 Barkley
2007 Mavs- 1990 Barkley
2008 Mavs- 1991 Barkley
2009 Mavs- 1992 Barkley
2010 Mavs- 1993 Barkley
2011 Mavs- 1994 Barkley

[Texas Chuck]

Imagine they are worse every year. I guess you argue that Barkley would have been more effective against GSW in 2007, but other than that they do worse. A big part of who the Mavericks were in this post-Nash, post-Nellie era was Dirk completely buying into the idea that he had to be a factor defensively as well. When you add that to the fact that everything that team did offensively revolved around Dirk it's hard to see Chuck improving on things even tho he was a great scorer in his own right.

[GSP]

Agree with Tc. Chuck was a much worse defender than Dirk and his playstyle wouldnt produce as much success offensively on those Mavs team since they really built around Dirks ability to shoot as a big man and space the floor.

[Basketballefan]

Imagine they are worse every year. I guess you argue that Barkley would have been more effective against GSW in 2007, but other than that they do worse. A big part of who the Mavericks were in this post-Nash, post-Nellie era was Dirk completely buying into the idea that he had to be a factor defensively as well. When you add that to the fact that everything that team did offensively revolved around Dirk it's hard to see Chuck improving on things even tho he was a great scorer in his own right.

Show me evidence that Dirk was a factor on defense.

[rrravenred]

Defensive RAPM is one indicator

Generally a (small) positive influence, which blew up into an outlier year in 2011.

Year Defense per 100
2012 1.4
2011 3
2010 0.7
2009 0.1
2008 0.5
2007 0.2
2006 0.8
2005 1.2
2004 0.8
2003 1
2002 -0.2

[Texas Chuck]

Show me evidence that Dirk was a factor on defense.

Really?

Thought we were all long past the Irk days. RAPM as mentioned shows it statistically as does a lot of the data showing Dirk to be one of the best on-ball post defenders in the league over a meaningful stretch. So the defensive data we have shows him to be a positive.

But more importantly was the fact that he bought into it. We have seen what happens to teams when their best players arent interested in defending. It tends to trickle down. But how could JET or anyone else not at least try defensively knowing Dirk was giving full effort.

Beyond that he's 7 feet tall with good lower-body strength and great hands and a great knowledge of what scorers are looking to do. In addition in his prime he was a very very good defensive rebounder especially in the PS.

He's never going to be confused for KG or Duncan or Grant or Sheed or a number of superior defenders. But he was a good solid defender and because he agreed to take on that responsibility it made it easier for Avery and later Rick to get the whole team to buy in.

It's possible Chuck would have done the same, but since we don't know its hard to give him credit for it here.

[Basketballefan]

Defensive RAPM is one indicator

Generally a (small) positive influence, which blew up into an outlier year in 2011.

Year Defense per 100
2012 1.4
2011 3
2010 0.7
2009 0.1
2008 0.5
2007 0.2
2006 0.8
2005 1.2
2004 0.8
2003 1
2002 -0.2

More context please, for example what are those numbers like compared to the average?

[rrravenred]

One thing worth considering is that Barkley is a considerably better passer and distributor than Dirk (which is no slight on Dirk) and also a considerably better fullcourt player. OTOH, lacks Dirk's range (except when hot). Dirk's game is (IMO) better suited for today's game, although I can see merit in putting the ball in Chuck's hands and letting him create from the low-post...

[Winsome Gerbil]

2005 Mavs- 1988 Barkley
2006 Mavs- 1989 Barkley
2007 Mavs- 1990 Barkley
2008 Mavs- 1991 Barkley
2009 Mavs- 1992 Barkley
2010 Mavs- 1993 Barkley
2011 Mavs- 1994 Barkley

Ok, here we go:

2005 Mavs: Last half year of Nellie/first half year of Avery. Lots of three point shooters, including starting Terry + Finley. No real pure PG post Nash. Slightly below average rebounding team. Survey says: '88 Barkley averaged 28.3ps 11.9reb on .587 shooting. He gives them the post toughness to shake their soft label, the rebounding to give them an edge on the boards every night, and while that was his lowest assist year, he was still a better passer and better able to create than Dirk, which is critical in a transition year with no obvious floor generals.

2006 Mavs: STILL have not replaced Nash. Leading assist man is Terry with 3.8, which is pathetic. But they have lost Finley from their 3pt shooting ranks, and somewhat mysteriously given that most of the same faces were back, they have become a strong rebounding team even with Dirk falling off. Survey says...eh...'89 Barkley was 25.8pts 12.5reb 4.1ast on .579 shooting. His ability to dribble and create would still be a huge bonus. He would turn a strong rebounding team into the best in the league, but that's not as key as the year before. but without Finley, and swapping Barkley for Dirk, the Mavs threepoint shooting would largely just be carried by Finley and Van Horn. This year is fuzzy. His foul drawing 10.1 FTA a game post play would have been real handy against the Heat though.

2007 Mavs: This might be a tipping point as Terry and Harris now teamed to give the team enough PG play, they remained a strong reboudning team, and Dirk won MVP...but Dirk won MVP in a down year in all ways but efficiency, and of course the first round humiliation really stinks this up. And the thing is, Barkley doesn't get shut down by the smallball Warriors. He averages 25.2pts that season on .600 (!) shooting. He would have chewed up Nellie's Warriors inside to some huge games, and the upset probably would have been avoided.

2008 Mavs: The arrival of JKidd to run the offense and rack up assists finally minimizes the prohibitive passing/ballhandling advantage Barkley had. 90-91 Barkley was also his lowest rebounding year in a 10year run, and so I think if there was ever a year when Barkley's advantages weren't as needed, it would have been this one.

2009 Mavs: Now we hit kind of a drab year, where the Mavs weren't that great, Dirk wasn't that great, and Barkley was kind of shutting it down in his last year with Philly. You might make a change just to give the Mavs some more juice, because they needed it. But I'm not sure it would have made a huge difference in this one. Notably, by this point Dirk is no longer shooting many threes, so the stretch argument isn't what it once was.

2010 Mavs: Look, the Mavs lost in the first round here. Dirk's age is showing and he's entirely quit rebounding, and he's no longer a three point weapon per se. Meanwhile Charles Barkley is busy winning the MVP for Phoenix and averaging 25.6pts 12.2reb (nearly 5 more than Dirk) and 5.1ast. This is a clear Barkley year.

2011 Mavs: and in 2011 Dirk is falling off, the team is now a fringe playoff team...but Dirk puts together one last epic playoff run to carry the team to the title. So at the point you won the title, because of Dirk even, how much better could you possibly do? This is Dirk.

[Timmaytime]

They certainly don't win the championship in '11, that's for sure. Dirk was unconscious that series

[rrravenred]

Which average? Given that it's points for/against, the absolute average has to be zero...

But for the sake of comparison with some of his peers:

Pau Gasol:

Code: Select all

Year   Defense per 100
2012   0.2
2011   0.8
2010   -0.5
2009   0.6
2008   1
2007   -1.9
2006   -0.4
2005   -1.3
2004   -2.2
2003   -1.7
2002   -0.7


David West

Code: Select all

Year   Defense per 100
2012   0.4
2011   0
2010   -1.7
2009   0.7
2008   1.2
2007   -1
2006   -1.5
2005   -0.8
2004   -1

Carmelo Anthony

Code: Select all

Year   Defense per 100
2012   -1.1
2011   -1.1
2010   -0.7
2009   -1
2008   -2.9
2007   -2.9
2006   -1
2005   -0.6
2004   -1.8

Chris Bosh

Code: Select all

Year   Defense per 100
2012   0.4
2011   2.9
2010   1.2
2009   0.7
2008   1.2
2007   0
2006   0
2005   0.4
2004   -0.2

and finally, for a comparison with genuine elite defensive PFs (which no one here is claiming Dirk is)

Kevin Garnett

Code: Select all

Year   Defense per 100
2012   1.2
2011   5.3
2010   4
2009   5.6
2008   5.2
2007   4.3
2006   1.9
2005   1.3
2004   4.2
2003   2.3
2002   1.2


Tim Duncan

Code: Select all

Year   Defense per 100
2012   1.8
2011   3.7
2010   3.2
2009   2
2008   3.1
2007   2.5
2006   3.6
2005   3.8
2004   4.3
2003   3.4
2002   2.3


Enough context for you?

[Texas Chuck]

Spoiler:

2005 Mavs- 1988 Barkley
2006 Mavs- 1989 Barkley
2007 Mavs- 1990 Barkley
2008 Mavs- 1991 Barkley
2009 Mavs- 1992 Barkley
2010 Mavs- 1993 Barkley
2011 Mavs- 1994 Barkley

Ok, here we go:

2005 Mavs: Last half year of Nellie/first half year of Avery. Lots of three point shooters, including starting Terry + Finley. No real pure PG post Nash. Slightly below average rebounding team. Survey says: '88 Barkley averaged 28.3ps 11.9reb on .587 shooting. He gives them the post toughness to shake their soft label, the rebounding to give them an edge on the boards every night, and while that was his lowest assist year, he was still a better passer and better able to create than Dirk, which is critical in a transition year with no obvious floor generals.

2006 Mavs: STILL have not replaced Nash. Leading assist man is Terry with 3.8, which is pathetic. But they have lost Finley from their 3pt shooting ranks, and somewhat mysteriously given that most of the same faces were back, they have become a strong rebounding team even with Dirk falling off. Survey says...eh...'89 Barkley was 25.8pts 12.5reb 4.1ast on .479 shooting. His ability to dribble and create would still be a huge bonus. He would turn a strong rebounding team into the best in the league, but that's not as key as the year before. but without Finley, and swapping Barkley for Dirk, the Mavs threepoint shooting would largely just be carried by Finley and Van Horn. This year is fuzzy. His foul drawing 10.1 FTA a game post play would have been real handy against the Heat though.

2007 Mavs: This might be a tipping point as Terry and Harris now teamed to give the team enough PG play, they remained a strong reboudning team, and Dirk won MVP...but Dirk won MVP in a down year in all ways but efficiency, and of course the first round humiliation really stinks this up. And the thing is, Barkley doesn't get shut down by the smallball Warriors. He averages 25.2pts that season on .600 (!) shooting. He would have chewed up Nellie's Warriors inside to some huge games, and the upset probably would have been avoided.

2008 Mavs: The arrival of JKidd to run the offense and rack up assists finally minimizes the prohibitive passing/ballhandling advantage Barkley had. 90-91 Barkley was also his lowest rebounding year in a 10year run, and so I think if there was ever a year when Barkley's advantages weren't as needed, it would have been this one.

2009 Mavs: Now we hit kind of a drab year, where the Mavs weren't that great, Dirk wasn't that great, and Barkley was kind of shutting it down in his last year with Philly. You might make a change just to give the Mavs some more juice, because they needed it. But I'm not sure it would have made a huge difference in this one. Notably, by this point Dirk is no longer shooting many threes, so the stretch argument isn't what it once was.

2010 Mavs: Look, the Mavs lost in the first round here. Dirk's age is showing and he's entirely quit rebounding, and he's no longer a three point weapon per se. Meanwhile Charles Barkley is busy winning the MVP for Phoenix and averaging 25.6pts 12.2reb (nearly 5 more than Dirk) and 5.1ast. This is a clear Barkley year.

2011 Mavs: and in 2011 Dirk is falling off, the team is now a fringe playoff team...but Dirk puts together one last epic playoff run to carry the team to the title. So at the point you won the title, because of Dirk even, how much better could you possibly do? This is Dirk.

Im pretty confused about some things:

1. How is Chuck's FT draw rate the key advantage in 06 when he draws at the same rate Dirk did that year in the Finals?
2. How is Dirk showing his age in 2010? His numbers are almost identical to his 09 numbers across the board which are essentially the same as 08 which are essentially the same as 07 and maybe you get the point?
3. How is Dallas a fringe playoff team in 2011 when they are essentially the best team in the league in games Dirk plays?

You make some sound arguments for Chuck, but I honestly don't understand the above points because factually they seem quite incorrect.

[Winsome Gerbil]

Well I do have to apologize for the last one, as the Mavs won 50 the year before and I somehow in my head had their #3/#6 matchup with the Blazers reversed. I would have said they won 51 that year, not 57.

[Jonny Blaze]

Well I do have to apologize for the last one, as the Mavs won 50 the year before and I somehow in my head had their #3/#6 matchup with the Blazers reversed. I would have said they won 51 that year, not 57.

The Mavs went 55-27 during the 2009-10 season. They won 55 not 50 games.

They brought back almost an entire 55 win team and added a great defensive center in Tyson Chandler.

The 2011 Mavs were underrated by the National Media for a couple of reasons which I will list below. People allow these inaccuracies to become popular opinion and the story isn't about how the best team in the NBA won the title in 2011.

No....its how this old group of no talent bums got once last itch of talent and they went out as champions! Could be the trailer for the new Disney movie.


The 2011 Mavs were underrated going into the playoffs for a few reasons.

1. The Mavs losing in the first round as a One and a Two Seed in 2007 and 2010.

2. The Mavs had their "rough stretch" of their season in March and April when a lot more eyes are on the NBA.

Regarding #2. Every team in the NBA goes through a stretch where they lose some games they shouldn't. Miami was 9-8 at one point during their season. They had their rough stretch in November when College football and the NFL are dominating the news headlines.

When healthy the 2011 Mavs were easily one of the best teams in the NBA. They had a depth advantage over nearly every other team in the league.

The Mavs start having some embarrassing losses in March and April and the conversation becomes one about their past failures in 2007 and 2010. Suddenly people start to feed into this beast that the Mavs aren't really that good, and they stand no chance in the playoffs.

The 2011 Mavs went 57-25. That is an excellent record. They beat every team in the league except Chicago.
They won 6 out of 8 games against the OKC Thunder. They won 6 out of 8 games against the Miami Heat.

They were the first Western Conference team to defeat the Kobe/Gasol Lakers.

They went 12-3 in the playoffs against OKC, LA, MIAMI.

[Dr Spaceman]

One thing worth considering is that Barkley is a considerably better passer and distributor than Dirk

This is definitely true, but I question whether it's actually an advantage for Barkley.

For one thing, Dirk's unprecedented combination of stature and mobility meant that he often drew the assignment of the other team's paint protector. I think it's understated how effective it is to have a guy who can force the opposing team's center to chase you around. This is especially true post-2008, when Dirk really started being able to post up anyone shorter than him. On the 2011 Mavericks team, the Kidd/Barea pick and roll with Chandler was monstrously effective pretty much for this reason. (In fact, it's about the only thing Barea has done successfully in his career.) then add the fact that Dirk is a masterful off-ball player and lightning quick decision maker, and I don't see why you would want the ball in his hands in the first place, especially when that role is better handled by smaller players.

In short, I'd much rather have Dirk's spacing than Barkley's passing.

[Woodsanity]

There would definitely be a difference in 07 but I doubt the Mavs would win a chip so overall it doesn't matter.
Overall, the result is 0(most likely scenario), 1(possible), 2(unlikely) rings. I can see Barkley winning in 06 and 11.

I am not saying Prime Barkley is inferior to Dirk. They are pretty much equal players but those Mavs teams were built for Dirk so yea most likely they win 0 rings, though there is a decent chance at 1.

[Krodis]

Dirk is better than Barkley. They get worse.

[rrravenred]

One thing worth considering is that Barkley is a considerably better passer and distributor than Dirk

This is definitely true, but I question whether it's actually an advantage for Barkley.

For one thing, Dirk's unprecedented combination of stature and mobility meant that he often drew the assignment of the other team's paint protector. I think it's understated how effective it is to have a guy who can force the opposing team's center to chase you around. This is especially true post-2008, when Dirk really started being able to post up anyone shorter than him. On the 2011 Mavericks team, the Kidd/Barea pick and roll with Chandler was monstrously effective pretty much for this reason. (In fact, it's about the only thing Barea has done successfully in his career.) then add the fact that Dirk is a masterful off-ball player and lightning quick decision maker, and I don't see why you would want the ball in his hands in the first place, especially when that role is better handled by smaller players.

In short, I'd much rather have Dirk's spacing than Barkley's passing.

Sure, and that's a preference thing. You don't want Dirk running the break (except perhaps for the trailer three) and you don't want him sitting on the perimeter dribbling the ball. His skillset doesn't suit. But I do take issue with your statement that it's not an advantage IF YOU DECIDE TO STRUCTURE YOUR OFFENCE AROUND IT. Dallas brought on board players who synergised with Dirk's playstyle, there's nothing to stop them doing the same for Barkley, and doing it effectively. (Yep, I'm a big fan of the Dallas FO)

[Winsome Gerbil]

Dirk is better than Barkley. They get worse.

I always love these deep statements.

[Sun Scorched]

I think the only fair statement I've seen so far is that the Mavs were built around Dirk and, as a result, Barkley would be a poor fit.

But I'm not sure I agree wholesale that Dirk is a better player and that there isn't any way the Mavs are successful with Barkley.

If anything, Barkley would draw fouls left and right in today's league with his post play. His rebounding is staggeringly better and, while Dirk can take over games, so could Barkley.