RealGM Top 100 List #17

[penbeast0]

CENTERS
David Robinson to me is the best left in terms of peak. Moses has great longevity though and the third possibility is George Mikan who is the only player left that was the undisputed best player in basketball for a reasonably long stretch of time (5 years +). I have traditionally rated Robinson higher at the moment because Moses's defense is solid on ball but he isn't a defensive anchor and defensive anchors like the Admiral tend to have an impact out of proportion to their numbers. However, arguments presented showing Robinson's defensive impact lessening in the postseason is leaving me with second thoughts. Without a strong defensive advantage, Moses has such a longevity advantage it would be tough to go against him.

FORWARDS
Karl Malone is the obvious choice in terms of numbers, durability, everything but postseason success; behind him are Pettit, Barkley, Baylor, McHale, Pippen, Havlicek, Rodman, and even Kevin Durant.

GUARDS
Wade or Frazier. Wade is the most explosive scorer and plays excellent defense, Frazier didn't score as much but was an even better defender and playmaker, and even more known for stepping up and dominating 2 NBA finals. This one is very close; I lean Frazier over Wade but willing to be convinced. I see Clyde as a step up over Nash and Stockton for his ability to take over games with both his scoring and defense, over Payton, Kidd, or Isiah for his scoring efficiency and superior all around game. Both Wade and Frazier do suffer a little from short or injury riddled primes.

To get an idea of Mikan and Pettit's impact, I am going to bring their numbers from one of their prime seasons up to the year 2000 by taking simple ratios. So, their points, rebounds, assists, and ts% will all be adjusted to numbers that would approximate their impact in year 2000 numbers (I will also add in Barkley for comparison).

Mikan
1951 28.4pts 14.1reb 3.0ast .428efg
2000 32.8pts 12.3reb 3.2ast .578efg Mikan's offensive dominance was Wilt like; more dominant than Shaq! Note that both Mikan and Pettit had massive foul draws of over 10/g with very good FT shooting so the ts% is even greater.

Pettit
1959 29.2pts 16.4reb 3.1ast .438efg
2000 26.3pts 10.4reb 3.5ast .530efg Pettit's rebounding numbers come down to earth while his efficiency shows as pretty decent. The key is that he was able to maintain them his whole career from the 50s all the way through the mid 60s while the NBA changed drastically around him. He's basically a nice guy predecessor of Karl Malone.

Barkley
1988 28.3pts 11.9reb 3.2ast .604efg
2000 25.5pts 11.8reb 2.8ast .590efg The average ppg for a team in 1988 was exactly the same as it was in 1959 interestingly enough. Mikan and Pettit both also had decent defensive reps; though playing in the 50s is the weakest era in NBA history.

[Texas Chuck]

David Robinson and Karl Malone currently top my thinking for this spot, but I'd love to hear some more Charles Barkley comparisons here.

Also getting to where I'd like to see some Hondo discussion.

[ThaRegul8r]

David Robinson and Karl Malone currently top my thinking for this spot, but I'd love to hear some more Charles Barkley comparisons here.

Now in this thread, Malone and Robinson had some similar failings in the postseason, so it's a completely different argument as it was between Malone and Dirk, so this should be interesting.

Now in this thread, I want to refer back to something ronnymac2 said about Malone:

Cut his skillset down to the bone and he's very much a Horace Grant type...a mini-Kevin Garnett actually. KG/Horace/older Malone connect the goodness/impact of the players around them because of their spacing effect, passing, screens, off-ball movement, ability to run the floor, and IQ.

Despite being 40, and despite being oft-injured, I'd argue that Karl Malone, like Horace Grant in 1995, was the most valuable player on the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers. HoGrant and Malone were the third-best players, but the most valuable based on the team construction (Though Penny could be argued for Orlando because the Magic had no PG). Malone gave Kobe his first great pick-n-roll partner and gave Shaq the best or second-best entry-passing big man he ever played next to. And Malone's man defense in the 2004 playoffs was amazing, as he stifled Yao Ming, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Rasheed Wallace by shoving them 20 feet away from the basket, beating up on them, and stripping them cleanly of the ball or making them take tough shots. Even at age 40 and injured for half the season, 2004 Malone proved to me that 1999-2003 Malone could have shifted his role from volume scorer to role playing big man and been extremely impactful and great on a contending team.

Phil Jackson agrees with ronnymac. In The Last Season, Jackson wrote:

By the end of the Minnesota series, Karl was clearly our most valuable player. He guarded one younger, more heralded performer after another—Yao, Duncan, Garnett—holding his own each time. Even on one leg, he was able to frustrate Rasheed Wallace. If Karl could have given us one more game, one more half, say, the second half in Game 4, things might have been different.

Since neither Malone nor Robinson were able to effectively utilize what they brought to the table to help teams win in the postseason during their primes, no one has the advantage there, and here's where post-prime contributions factor in.

6. Statistics are team-dependent. Doing what is needed in order for the team to win may require sacrificing individual statistics. There will be no penalty levied for doing so, nor will a player’s evaluation be lowered for putting the needs of the team above his own individual statistics. It shows he has the right priority.

We know Robinson was able to contribute to titles once Duncan came on board, but I'm not going to penalize Malone for what happened to LA in 2004, as that wasn't his fault. Though 18 years of never missing a game seemed to catch up to him that last year. I'm open to arguments on both sides here.

I've brought up some concerns I had with Malone, and there were some that were raised with Robinson that I never saw mentioned again:

Spoiler:

4. Payton. He was a stud this year, period. More important to his team than Kemp, who had obvious gifts and less obvious--and significant—flaws. (If Shawn Kemp had learned to box out properly, his rebounding might be worth something. He didn’t, really. So it isn’t, as much.) In games 4-6 of the finals, Payton made Jordan work harder than pretty much anyone I had seen since the late 80s. Almost had him at 3; will look at the rest of the posts and could change this.

Can we put this into perspective though, since i think it's giving Payton a boost up people's ballots.

The regular season is 82 games. That's over 6,000 possessions for Payton. In the playoffs he played ~1,500 more possessions. He didn't guard Jordan for all of these games...they had Hawkins on him and even Schrempf at times. So this is, what, 150 defensive possessions? Within that series alone, Payton didn't even play that well.

Now, I think it's perfectly fair to look at that as being reflective of something bigger, and perhaps even use it as a tiebreaker or something. He did play Jordan wonderfully. I just get the feeling people are rocketing Payton up their boards because of these few games and his team's success. I'm fairly confident in saying that Payton was better in 1998 and better in 2000 than he was in 1996.

Finally, you have to ask yourself how big of an impact Payton's defense had on the game. For a point guard, I think it was huge. Compared to a wing, very good. But short of a big. Just watch the games -- he's not having the same impact defensively as Scottie Pippen, let alone the handful of elite bigs ahead of him. In the games against Jordan, Payton's having great defensive games relative to Michael, but it's not like his defensive line is:

2 charges, 5 forced turnovers, 2 basket saves (on help blocks/strips), 2 points against, 2 shooting fouls, no defensive errors, 17% FG's against, 5 defensive rebounds and the general disruption of dribble penetration from the PG.

I only mention that line because it approximates the last Scottie Pippen game I graded defensively.

Well, part of the perspective is that Gary Payton was Defensive Player of the Year. And in this case, part of the perspective is that a player being brought up frequently—David Robinson—had poor defensive play in the playoffs, and it cost his team.

I’ve got Pippen in my top 7 for the season, so I’ve got nothing bad to say about Scottie. But the points being made about postseason play with other players are, IMO, valid; they’re also one of the main reasons why this topic exists. MVP voting is done before the postseason. Several players that had earned regular season MVPs struggled in the playoffs, and a part of what we consider—as others have noted—is whether this would/should have had an effect on the MVP voting in a season. Now, the question of how much emphasis to put on post season play is relative. Some people give it a ton; some people rate it more or less equally with regular season play. As usual, I’m in the middle about this. Considering that David Robinson had a much better regular season than Gary Payton. He was also worse on both offense and defense than Payton in the playoffs. Is that enough to elevate Payton over Drob? For some it is. For me, it isn’t—although it makes it close.

Spoiler:

TrueLAFan made a point about David Robinson's defensive impact in the playoffs. Indeed, there seems to be some validity to that, if we believe that Robinson has a major influence on their defense as the anchor.

Here are the Spurs DRtg in his 93-96 stretch compared with regular season performance. The opponents ORtg is weighted by games played vs. team (eg a 6 game series counts twice as much as a 3 game series).

1996 111.5 ( 8.0 vs. regular season) 4.7 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 112.1
1995 103.1 (-2.3 vs. regular season) -7.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 109.3
1994 110.3 ( 5.7 vs. regular season) 5.3 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 108.6
1993 107.0 ( 0.2 vs. regular season) -0.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 111.3

So it seems there is something to what TrueLAFan is saying. Perhaps with the exception of 1995's first 2 rounds...but we know what happened after that.

My general problem with Robinson, like everyone else, is his playoff performances. It's not that I viewed him as some sort of choker, just that he faired much better much better in a regular season style and against weaker competition. Which isn't too damning (we shouldn't overstate the unfortunate fact that he ran into Malone and Hakeem at the worst time). His regular seasons still count. I just know what type of contribution I'm getting toward a championship (he's a little too subject to certain styles and matchups, and when he runs into them there's a larger drop off then we see from other stars.)

1993 struggled against Duckworth/Williams vs. Portland. Then a better series against Phoenix (but a bad game 7).
1994 ran into Utah. Struggled.
1995 He DESTROYED LA (Dviac and Campbell) a round before playing Hakeem.
1996 great against Phoenix. Then Utah again...

That's something that I'll take into account, in general, for all of his prime seasons.

Spoiler:

Here's the Spurs' DRating under Robinson in the playoffs:

91: 4-game series against the Warriors, who had a 111.9 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 111.7 (-0.2).

93: 4-game series against the Blazers, who had a 108.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 107.7 (-0.6).

6-game series against the Suns, who had a 113.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 109.9 (-3.4).

94: 4-game series against the Jazz, who had a 108.6 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 110.6 ( 2.0).

95: 3-game series against the Nuggets, who had a 109.1 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 103.1 (-6.0).

6-game series against the Lakers, who had a 109.1 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 101.3 (-7.8).

6-game series against the Rockets, who had a 109.7 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 110.6 ( 0.9).

96: 4-game series against the Suns, who had a 110.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 109.3 (-1.0).

6-games series against the Jazz, who had a 113.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 114.1 ( 0.8).

As you can see, although the Spurs had some nice defensive series (a couple in 95, and one in 93), they had mostly mediocre defensive series, in which they allowed opposing teams to either score their averages against them, or even do better offensively. An elite defensive team like the Spurs shouldn't allow that...in general, they should hold their opponents to well under their averages.

[...]

So, with the Spurs, you have an elite defensive team dropping to above average levels. And considering how guys like Barkley, Malone, and especially Hakeem had some great series against D-Rob and the Spurs, I think you can conclude that Robinson as the defensive anchor got worse defensively in the playoffs, by quite a bit.

If Robinson's scoring fell off in the postseason and he also got worse as a defensive anchor during his prime, that's quite a big deal, as in that case, what positive value would he be bringing if he became a worse defensive anchor as well? I need to investigate this further, and if any Robinson supporters could address this, that would go a long ways toward aiding me in my decision.

[colts18]

Vote: Steve Nash

Had more impact than any of the remaining players. Top 3 offensive player in history. Great postseason performer

[magicmerl]

I am a big David Robinson fan, and started off preferring him to Karl Malone. But Karl has amazing production over a super long stretch of time, and during the three year window when David allegedly peaked higher from 94-96, Karl owned him in the playoffs. So I'm comfortable picking Karl Malone over David Robinson.

Charles Barkley vs Karl Malone. Charles has the godly offensive efficiency, but that's offset by his well documented defensive deficiencies. In terms of offense,

Karl. 13.9Rp100 4.9Ap100 34.4Pp100 29.4USG% .577TS% 142.2OWS 92.4DWS 234.6WS .205WS/48
Chuck 15.9Rp100 5.4Ap100 30.2Pp100 24.9USG% .612TS% 123.3OWS 53.9DWS 177.2WS .216WS/48

So Charles scored more efficiently, and was a better rebounder and passer. Karl on the other hand had a much higher USG% and scored more. Karl owned the longevity win shares stats, while Barkley held an edge in WS/48. Karl did have a lower turnover rate despite having a higher USG%.

Playoffs
Karl. 14.1Rp100 4.2Ap100 32.6Pp100 29.9USG% .526TS% 11.3OWS 11.6DWS 23.0WS .140WS/48
Chuck 16.7Rp100 5.1Ap100 30.0Pp100 25.2USG% .584TS% 13.6OWS 5.9DWS 19.5WS .193WS/48

It's the same story in the playoffs, except that Barkley produced more offensive win shares in the playoffs in 70 fewer games.

Now, to defense. Karl made 2nd team in 88 and 1st team from 97-99.

This is difficult. I expected it to be relatively black and white that Malone was better than Barkley. But it appears that Barkley was a better offensive player, while Malone was a better defender and played for longer.

[trex_8063]

David Robinson and Karl Malone currently top my thinking for this spot, but I'd love to hear some more Charles Barkley comparisons here.

Also getting to where I'd like to see some Hondo discussion.

I'm with you in that K.Malone and DRob are the top two candidates in my mind, though would also hear Barkley arguments.
Seems still a touch premature for Havlicek, though (imo ).

[ThaRegul8r]

This one is very close; I lean Frazier over West but willing to be convinced.

West's already in.

[Basketballefan]

This one is very close; I lean Frazier over West but willing to be convinced.

West's already in.

I believe that's supposed to say Wade.

I expect Wade to start getting serious traction once Karl, Moses and Barkley get in.

[john248]

The players I'm considering for this spot are Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, David Robinson, and Steve Nash. Karl definitely has the longevity edge while being great in the RS, scoring dip in the PS, great man defender though not a global anchor, good passer, great teammate. Barkley was one of the best offensive players ever, great in the post, great passer, but his defense is a negative especially considering his position. I do wonder just how much that offense could overcome his lack of defense and how much of a total impact that would net which was less of a worry with Dirk. Robinson was awesome defensively and a solid go to on offense, but now I've seen dips in the PS on both ends of the floor. I also feel his passing is overrated and has a longevity issue. I think Nash should get a mention since he's got similar longevity as some of these players except for Malone. He's got GOAT level impact on offense but a negative on defense.

Just to add, in the previous top 100, Pettit was ranked ahead of Barkley and DRob. I'm wondering if he'll get some run here too.

[john248]

If Robinson's scoring fell off in the postseason and he also got worse as a defensive anchor during his prime, that's quite a big deal, as in that case, what positive value would he be bringing if he became a worse defensive anchor as well? I need to investigate this further, and if any Robinson supporters could address this, that would go a long ways toward aiding me in my decision.

Thanks for posting that. I'm genuinely curious as to why there was a drop off with the Spurs defense in the PS,

The only other thing to bring up with DRob's defense though was the 2nd part of his career where he focused more on the defensive end and did a great job with that which helped contribute to a couple title runs.

[JordansBulls]

Vote: Moses Malone

We are talking about the only player on the list currently with 3+ MVP's that has not been voted in yet. Also won a title as the man, only one of a handful of players to have won league mvp and title or league mvp, finals mvp (when it existed) and title the same year. When Moses parted the Red Sea he was 1st in WS Per 48 minutes in the season and playoffs, 1st in Win Shares in the season and playoffs and 1st in PER in the season and playoffs and led one of the top 5 teams all time in the process.

Players who won league mvp and title the same year.

Spoiler:

Examples:

1957 Bob Cousy
1961 Bill Russell
1962 Bill Russell
1963 Bill Russell
1965 Bill Russell
1967 Wilt Chamberlain
1968 Connie Hawkins (ABA)
1970 Willis Reed
1971 Kareem
1974 Julius Erving (ABA)
1976 Julius Erving (ABA)
1980 Kareem
1983 Moses Malone
1984 Larry Bird
1986 Larry Bird
1987 Magic Johnson
1991 Michael Jordan
1992 Michael Jordan
1994 Hakeem Olajuwon
1996 Michael Jordan
1998 Michael Jordan
2000 Shaquille O'neal
2003 Tim Duncan
2012 Lebron James
2013 Lebron James

[Joao Saraiva]

I think we're finally getting to the Karl Malone, Charles Barkley range. I hope they both get in pretty soon. JordanBulls actually made some good points about Moses Malone too.

[FJS]

My vote goes to Karl Malone. Longevity, scoring machine. One of the longest primes ever. 2 mvp in jordan, shaq era.
Only fault not to win a ring, altough he came pretty close vs jordan in 97 & 98 with close series.

[Jim Naismith]

Vote: Moses Malone



Rebounding and Scoring

Chairman of the Boards

Top rebounder for 6 seasons
#3 in career rebounds, after Wilt and Russell, and ahead of Kareem
Greatest offensive rebounder

#1 in Career ORB (with over 40% more ORB's than the #2 player)
had 5 of the top 10 ORB seasons, including #1, #2, and #3 seasons
Elite scorer

Top 5 scorer for 5 years, Top 10 scorer for 8 years
#7 in career points

Dominant Peak

1982 statistical peak: 31.1 ppg / 14.7 rpg
1983 most dominant: MVP, FMVP, Defensive 1st Team

5-year peak average: 26.8 ppg /15.4 rpg
3 MVP's, 1 Finals MVP
won MVPs against Bird, Dr. J, Magic, Kareem
1x Defensive 1st Team, 1x Defensive 2nd Team

Very Long Prime, 20+ year Career

13-year prime: 23.8 ppg /13.4 rpg
21-year career: 20.3 ppg /12.3 rpg

#3 in career rebounds, #7 in career points

4x NBA First Team, 4x Second Team, 12x All Star

Major Impact

Led sub-.500 team (1981 Rockets) to NBA finals

eliminated Kareem-Magic Lakers (reigning champs)
Houston Rockets won 32 fewer games after trading Moses away

Led 1983 Sixers to championship:

Fo-Fo-Fo: Lost only one game during playoffs
Swept Kareem-Magic Lakers (reigning champs who had beaten 1982 Sixers 4-2)

[penbeast0]

This one is very close; I lean Frazier over West but willing to be convinced.

West's already in.

Oops, Wade, not West . . . fixed.

[Warspite]

Moses Malone

Has the longevity being top 10 in pts and rebounds.

Has the peak being a 3 time MVP

Was the best player in the NBA during the NBAs golden era.

Only player to take a team with a losing record to the Finals.

Sure the NBA doesnt play the same style as it did in the 80s with Moses and that you may think that his impact would be less today or that it was lesser than because of different styles today but you would be mistaken.

[Basketballefan]

I find it strange that Karl has been in runoffs since the 12th-13th spot and still hasn't got in yet and were at 17.

[Clyde Frazier]

Wow, can't believe dirk got voted in and I didn't get a chance to argue for him… congrats to dirk!

Leaning very hard towards karl, but will take a look at some of the others mentioned and come back with a vote.

[Jim Naismith]

Hakeem is famous for outplaying David Robinson.

Moses is famous for outplaying Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

Moses versus Kareem

stats taken from nbastats.net

g MM pts reb AJ pts reb

78 3 70 49 73 23
79 3 93 69 92 34
80 2 61 32 39 21
81 8 228 136 196 97
82 5 172 79 109 31
83 5 132 86 109 32

He outscores him every year starting in 79, and outrebounds him every year.



Average 78-80 Moses 28.0/18.8 - Jabbar 25.5/9.8

Average 79-83 Moses 29.8/17.5 - Jabbar 23.7/9.3

So he outscores and outrebounds Jabbar from 78-83 across the board.
From 79-83 Moses leads NBA in winshares, and outplays Kareem.

Oh, Kareem is past peak - let's look at 78-80 - Kareem in the peaks project has 77 has his best year; he is RPOY in 79 and league MVP in 80

Moses still outplays and outrebounds Kareem Jabbar.

I don't think anyone else did this to Kareem in his prime.

Oh, and in that 79-83 span he beat the Lakers twice.

Moses played and beat Kareem's Lakers twice in the playoffs. Both times, the Lakers were the defending champs.

Moses' postseason record against Kareem: 6 wins, 1 loss

[Basketballefan]

Also getting to where I'd like to see some Hondo discussion.

I suppose if we're to ring count then yes.

Impact wise i don't see a top 20 argument for Havlicek. I'd go top 25 though.