RealGM Top 100 List #18

[penbeast0]

CENTERS
David Robinson to me is the best left in terms of peak. Moses has great longevity though and the third possibility is George Mikan who is the only player left that was the undisputed best player in basketball for a reasonably long stretch of time (5 years +). I have traditionally rated Robinson higher at the moment because Moses's defense is solid on ball but he isn't a defensive anchor and defensive anchors like the Admiral tend to have an impact out of proportion to their numbers. Moses, however, has a strong longevity advantage and was a pretty dominant player at his peak, although much of his extra longevity isn't as valuable as even 1999-2000 post-injury Robinson.

FORWARDS
Pettit, Barkley, Baylor, McHale, Pippen, Havlicek, Rodman, and even Kevin Durant. For Barkley to go over the likes of Pettit or Baylor, he'd have to have a clear statistical edge. Since I have many times compared Pettit to Baylor, and it always comes out Pettit, I will compare the numbers for Pettit, Barkley, and throw in George Mikan -- all regularized to a standard year (I usually use 2000).

GUARDS
Wade or Frazier. Wade is the most explosive scorer and plays excellent defense, Frazier didn't score as much but was an even better defender and playmaker, and even more known for stepping up and dominating 2 NBA finals. This one is very close; I lean Frazier over Wade but willing to be convinced. I see Clyde as a step up over Nash and Stockton for his ability to take over games with both his scoring and defense, over Payton, Kidd, or Isiah for his scoring efficiency and superior all around game. Both Wade and Frazier do suffer a little from short or injury riddled primes.

To get an idea of Mikan and Pettit's impact, I am going to bring their numbers from one of their prime seasons up to the year 2000 by taking simple ratios. So, their points, rebounds, assists, and ts% will all be adjusted to numbers that would approximate their impact in year 2000 numbers (I will also add in Barkley for comparison).

Mikan
1951 28.4pts 14.1reb 3.0ast .428efg
2000 32.8pts 12.3reb 3.2ast .578efg Mikan's offensive dominance was Wilt like; more dominant than Shaq! Note that both Mikan and Pettit had massive foul draws of over 10/g with very good FT shooting so the ts% is even greater.

Pettit
1959 29.2pts 16.4reb 3.1ast .438efg
2000 26.3pts 10.4reb 3.5ast .530efg Pettit's rebounding numbers come down to earth while his efficiency shows as pretty decent. The key is that he was able to maintain them his whole career from the 50s all the way through the mid 60s while the NBA changed drastically around him. He's basically a nice guy predecessor of Karl Malone.

Barkley
1988 28.3pts 11.9reb 3.2ast .604efg
2000 25.5pts 11.8reb 2.8ast .590efg The average ppg for a team in 1988 was exactly the same as it was in 1959 interestingly enough. Mikan and Pettit both also had decent defensive reps; though playing in the 50s is the weakest era in NBA history.

Pettit and Barkley are close enough that I go with the classy team leader who worked hard on defense and has possibly the greatest finals game 7 4th quarter ever played rather than the more efficient but lazy and often obnoxious modern player. However, looking at Mikan's numbers, they are even stronger than I had thought and really do put him into play even with his play in a weaker era and issues with the shot clock.

So . . . David Robinson, Moses Malone, George Mikan, or Bob Pettit (not quite ready to go Frazier or Wade yet) . . .

right now, if I wanted to win titles, it's got to be either Robinson or Mikan and since I am unsure, I will go with the

David Robinson

[penbeast0]

By request: Walt Frazier

Strengths:
One of the two best defensive PGs in history (I favor Payton at #1 but they are the consensus choices)
Extremely efficient scorer for his era -- more efficient than Havlicek for example
Monster finals performances in both 1970 and 1973 where he was clearly the best player out there despite Reed getting the awards (had more to do with marketing; Frazier's street style and look was something the NBA was trying to avoid a perception of).
Generally conceded to be an excellent floor general despite less than overwhelming assist numbers (Willis Reed's comment was something like: "It's Walt's ball, he just lets us play with it sometimes."
Leader of a Knicks team that is still used as an exemplar for team play.
(His longevity -- a 9 year prime -- is solid but not up to the standards of a Stockton/Malone type and his assist numbers were low for a PG since he was running the 70s equivalent of the triangle.)

Why Frazier is better than Nash and Stockton -- Defense obviously; took over games with both his scoring and his defense; led his team to 2 titles over Jerry West and the Lakers with great individual perfomances.
Peak Frazier numbers 1972 21pts 6reb 5ast .576ts% without a 3 point line, led NBA in playoff scoring (lost in finals)
Peak Nash numbers 2006 19pts 4reb 11ast .632ts% led playoffs in assist % (lost in WCF) MVP!
Peak Stockton numbers 1997 14pts 3reb 11ast led playoffs in assist % (lost in finals)

Why Frazier is better than Isiah or Kidd -- Defense and efficiency plus both had some issues with teammates where Clyde always pulled his teams together. Efficient scoring is the big one though; Frazier was far more individually efficient despite playing in the pre-3 point era and maximized the abilities of his teammates as much as any PG in history.

Why Frazier is better than Havlicek -- Scoring efficiency and outstanding offense throughout his career. Frazier was terrific from year one in the league; Hondo always had that great motor but was a below average shooter for his first few years. Frazier is able to guard either guard spot so Hondo doesn't have as big a versatility edge on him as on many PGS; even 70s Havlicek is probably a hair below prime Frazier though it is much closer.

Why Frazier is better than Dwyane Wade -- Defense, reliability, and portability. Wade is a very good defender, Frazier is a great one. Wade is more explosive but Frazier is injured less and has no seasons where his team imploded. Frazier also can be successful in a PG dominant system, in a triangle system, has an excellent long to midrange game as well as being a very good postup PG; generally a player with no weaknesses.

[Basketballefan]

By request: Walt Frazier



Why Frazier is better than Dwyane Wade -- Defense, reliability, and portability. Wade is a very good defender, Frazier is a great one. Wade is more explosive but Frazier is injured less and has no seasons where his team imploded. Frazier also can be successful in a PG dominant system, in a triangle system, has an excellent long to midrange game as well as being a very good postup PG; generally a player with no weaknesses.

I'm still not buying the Frazier argument over Wade. Wade is clearly the better offensive player when he was healthy, saying he's "just more explosive" is making it sound like all he does is score. Defense i'll give him that but it's not enough to make him better. And i don't think portability can really be proven against Wade.

Peak is very clearly Wade, Walt didn't have a season anywhere near Wade's 09 campaign. And not convinced any of his playoff runs were as good as Wade's 06 playoffs. And it's not like the longevity is there, both don't have great longevity. Frazier does seem a little more durable though. As for the team implosion, if you're talking about 2008, Wade was hurt all year long i think it's dumb to hold that against him.

Wade>Frazier.

[ronnymac2]

I have no idea who I'm voting for here. The players on my radar are Charles Barkley, Moses Malone, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, and Dwyane Wade. I love Rick Barry's peak, but I'm not sure about his longevity. Same with Clyde Frazier.

Wade probably has the best peak left of the players I'm considering, but also perhaps the weakest longevity. Barkley and Ewing might be the guys I trust the most.

[Texas Chuck]

Looking for reasons not to vote David Robinson. Particularly interested in Chuck and Moses but Hondo, Frazier, and Stockton are all on my radar as well.

but my research on David Robinson for the previous thread has me strongly leaning his way. I only posted 3 of the matchups, but contrary to popular narrative he was getting the best of most of the elite bigs of his era. Even against Shaq who figured to be a terrible matchup for him, he more than held his own prior to the injury.

[ronnymac2]

Can somebody talk about Bill Walton's career outside of 1977, 1978, 1986, and 1987? He did play in 6 other seasons. How's his 1976 and 1985 seasons? And what actually happened in those 6 other seasons?

[ushvinder88]

I hope either barkley or moses get voted in this time over david robinson. They have superior longevity and both of them can be your number one scoring option in the playoffs. Moses won a ring as the number one scoring option. David Robinson can have all the fancy advanced metrics, it doesnt matter to me, his numbers declined every year in the post season. Even in 1998 with tim duncan on his side, d-rob puts up his pretty numbers in the regular season, come playoff time his numbers fall again. I would take either barkley, wade or moses as my number one scoring option over d-rob any day of the week.

I would rather find defensive role players to surround moses, barkley or wade and build a team around one of these guys, instead of taking robinson and trying to find another franchise player that will be my number one scoring option, while he plays the role of second banana and just focuses more on rebounding and defense.

Moses or Barley should get voted this time, D-rob is not somebody i would build my franchise around if I want a dynasty.

[magicmerl]

I don't have a problem voting for a player who isn't as good as the players who are already voted in. So David Robinson's struggles vs Shaq, Hakeem and Karl don't detract from him for me.

Like Chuck I think it's going to come down to David vs Moses.

[Quotatious]

So David Robinson's struggles vs Shaq, Hakeem and Karl don't detract from him for me.

To be fair,Robinson's struggles against Olajuwon are exaggerated, based on that one playoff series, 1995 WCF. In the regular season, they were pretty much even.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... tats::none

Hakeem had a bit higher scoring average, but Dave shot a clearly better percentage from the field.


Sorry for not voting in the last thread, guys, but I really couldn't decide. I'm okay with the Mailman winning. I'm leaning towards D-Rob though, he'll probably get my vote here.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: David Robinson

I don't have an issue with Robinson sliding to this point, but nor would I have minded if he went in earlier. Let's just take it on face value to start here:

Typically the big man is the most coveted prospect in basketball because it's realistic for him to have stellar impact on both sides of the ball.

There aren't many guys left on the boards at this point who match that description. Robinson is one of them, the other serious candidates here aren't.

Robinson's longevity issues also are something that aren't nearly as bad as some might think because of the fact that his transition to sidekick status when Duncan came allowed not only for a great fit on offense but also allowed Robinson to scale up his defense.

Regarding the Moses debate specifically, putting aside the issues of Moses not truly being the help defender you ideally want in a 5, when people talk about Robinson's short comings in the playoffs I think they tend to overly fixate on comparing Robinson to himself rather than comparing him with others.

Robinson's career playoff scoring rate & efficiency is about the same as Moses, and Moses had a grand total of 3 years with a playoff WS/48 > 0.2. Only 1 came in prime, and that was also the only one to come in which he played in multiple rounds. Robinson had more than double that.

Regarding the Barkley debate, here's some data for your perusal:

The earliest RAPM we have for Barkley is when he's 34. It gives a value of +5.70, and he then falls off quickly over the next two seasons.

So then, here's how other guys from that same era looked at the same age:

Jordan +10.44
Malone +9.01
Robinson +8.28
Ewing +7.40 (technically he's 35 here)
Miller +5.77
Olajuwon +5.28

Things to note:
-Robinson of course went on after this to have several more years playing an instrumental part in helping the Spurs as we know it grow.

-Barkley's offensive rating was over 8. Phenomenal, but his defense really was awful at least in these later years.

-I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge that he's still better than Olajuwon who got in a while ago. That's interesting, but doesn't strike me as particularly useful in the debate of the moment.

[lorak]

From previous thread:

The peak of the Jazz came as they turned to Malone over Stockton more and more.

Actually that's a myth.

Code: Select all

SEASON   SRS   JS MPG   KM MPG
2002-03   2,8   27,7   36,2
2001-02   1,2   31,3   38,0
2000-01   5,0   29,2   35,7
1999-00   4,5   29,7   35,9
1998-99   5,5   28,2   37,4
1997-98   5,7   29,0   37,4
1996-97   8,0   35,3   36,6
1995-96   6,2   35,5   38,0
1994-95   7,8   35,0   38,1
1993-94   4,1   36,2   40,6
1992-93   1,7   34,9   37,8
1991-92   5,7   36,6   37,7
1990-91   3,2   37,8   40,3
1989-90   4,8   37,4   38,1
1988-89   4,0   38,7   39,1
1987-88   3,0   34,7   39,0
1986-87   0,1   22,7   34,8
1985-86   -0,7   23,6   30,6
1984-85   -0,3   18,2   0,0


So peak Jazz came in 1997, the last year of Stockton's prime and the last season, when he played 35 MPG. After that Jazz drop off dramatically by -2.3 SRS points.

Jazz also improved a lot in 1988, when John had become full time starter and his minutes increased by 12 per game. Malone also played more, but just by 3.2 MPG.

[john248]

Down to Barkley, Robinson, Nash, and Wade for me here with the first 2 looking more favorable. Pettit looks interesting too given where he finished in MVP voting, shooting ability, rebounding, but I hardly know anything about the guy beyond that.

[penbeast0]

Can somebody talk about Bill Walton's career outside of 1977, 1978, 1986, and 1987? He did play in 6 other seasons. How's his 1976 and 1985 seasons? And what actually happened in those 6 other seasons?

Short version . . . he started the year telling everyone he felt great and this year was going to be different, then his feet broke down again and he ended on the bench in street clothes.

[rich316]

I'm leaning Robinson, his defensive impact is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the crowd here. His longevity is also a little better than he usually gets credit for, he was a valuable piece for the Spurs into 2003. I've gotta do more research on Barkley/Moses, specifically about their post-peak play, since it seems all three of those players had a pretty long post-peak stretch.

[FJS]

I'm leaning towards Moses but i want to read more about Robinson because it's a toss up

[ShaqAttack3234]

I still have to go with Barkley. Just in a different class as an offensive player. He pretty much had to be doubled or he was going to overpowering you, but was also a good passer, one of the great rebounders and unstoppable in the open court. He could completely dominate a game like few others with his strength and athleticism.

[Quotatious]

I still have to go with Barkley. Just in a different class as an offensive player. He pretty much had to be doubled or he was going to overpowering you, but was also a good passer, one of the great rebounders and unstoppable in the open court. He could completely dominate a game like few others with his strength and athleticism.

How do you feel about Robinson vs Barkley as an overall package? How significant do you think D-Rob's defensive edge is?

[Jim Naismith]

Vote: Moses Malone



Major Impact

Led sub-.500 team (1981 Rockets) to NBA finals

eliminated Kareem-Magic Lakers (reigning champs)
Houston Rockets won 32 fewer games after trading Moses away

Led 1983 Sixers to championship:

Fo-Fo-Fo: Lost only one game during playoffs
Swept Kareem-Magic Lakers (reigning champs who had beaten 1982 Sixers 4-2)

Rebounding and Scoring

Chairman of the Boards

Top rebounder for 6 seasons
#3 in career rebounds, after Wilt and Russell, and ahead of Kareem
Greatest offensive rebounder

#1 in Career ORB (with over 40% more ORB's than the #2 player)
had 5 of the top 10 ORB seasons, including #1, #2, and #3 seasons
Elite scorer

Top 5 scorer for 5 years, Top 10 scorer for 8 years
#7 in career points

Dominant Peak

1982 statistical peak: 31.1 ppg / 14.7 rpg
1983 most dominant: MVP, FMVP, Defensive 1st Team

5-year peak average: 26.8 ppg /15.4 rpg
3 MVP's, 1 Finals MVP
won MVPs against Bird, Dr. J, Magic, Kareem
1x Defensive 1st Team, 1x Defensive 2nd Team

Very Long Prime, 20+ year Career

13-year prime: 23.8 ppg / 13.4 rpg
21-year career: 20.3 ppg / 12.3 rpg

#3 in career rebounds, #7 in career points

4x NBA First Team, 4x Second Team, 12x All Star

[Reservoirdawgs]

Major Impact

This picture is absolutely fascinating to me. For one...where are the two kids next to Moses looking? Homeboy on the right looks scared as hell, and homeboy on the right has the skeeziest snarl going on. And look...err...underneath Moses...what a creepy place to have put someone's face.

[Texas Chuck]

I don't have a problem voting for a player who isn't as good as the players who are already voted in. So David Robinson's struggles vs Shaq, Hakeem and Karl don't detract from him for me.

This really needs to be posted again:

Admiral vs Dream in the RS:

30-12 w/l in favor of Robinson which is staggering and cannot and should not be overlooked.

Dream 21.9/11.2/2.8 3.4 blocks 1.9 steals 2.9 TOs 44% FG 5.4 FTA 20.0 FGA
David 19.6/11.2/2.9 3.3 2.2 3.0 49% FG 7.7 FTA 14.3 FGA

So Admiral outplays Dream pretty clearly in the RS with his team winning more than 70% of the games and Dream's only real advantage is scoring 2.3 more ppg on 5.7 more shots. Robinson is considerably more efficient.

We have got to stop basing everything on one series. No question Dream got the better of Admiral in the one time they met in the PS, but the RS tells a different story.