RealGM Top 100 List #22

[penbeast0]

CENTERS
George Mikan who is the only player left that was the undisputed best player in basketball for a reasonably long stretch of time (5 years +). But, his era was the last vestige of white only, no shot-clock basketball, and he started to decline by age 25 which is really early; rule changes that other players could deal with seem to have been a bigger problem for him. Patrick Ewing and Artis Gilmore should get mentioned here as well; I used to favor Gilmore over Ewing but have been having second thoughts though I still think he peaked higher in 1975.

FORWARDS
Baylor, McHale, Pippen, Havlicek, Rodman, and even Kevin Durant. Interested to see who starts getting support. Baylor seemed to have efficiency issues even for his day (which started after Pettit's so less excusable), McHale is super efficient but worked against single teams in the post more than any great post scorer in history and was a mediocre defensive rebounder (though the presence of Larry Bird that gave him so many single teams also stole some rebounds from him). Pippen does everything well, but has some issues with clutch situations and mental fragility. Havlicek seems to have nerves (and lungs) of steel but was even more inefficient through the mid 70s than Baylor. Rodman is the GOAT rebounder, but also a disruptive force and barely above the Ben Wallace level offensively, and Durant's career is just starting. A lot of talent, a lot of questions.

GUARDS
Wade or Frazier. Wade is the most explosive scorer and plays excellent defense, Frazier didn't score as much but was an even better defender and playmaker, and even more known for stepping up and dominating 2 NBA finals. This one is very close; I lean Frazier over Wade but willing to be convinced. I see Clyde as a step up over Nash and Stockton for his ability to take over games with both his scoring and defense, over Payton, Kidd, or Isiah for his scoring efficiency and superior all around game. Both Wade and Frazier do suffer a little from short or injury riddled primes though here also, Frazier was the guy you could count on through his prime where Wade was often hurt. I hadn't put Chris Paul on this list but he should probably be considered as well, though he hasn't as yet shown me the ability to elevate his team that I've seen in Frazier and Wade despite his prettier stats than either.

With the questions about Mikan and the forwards, I am leaning to either Patrick Ewing, Dwyane Wade, or Walt Frazier. Based on his finals heroics, the way his teams in NY (of all places) ran like well oiled machines with almost no ego problems, superior durability, and the fact that as a fan, I feared facing him more than I did Wade, I will cast a tentative vote for:

WALT FRAZIER

[ronnymac2]

Vote: Patrick Ewing

The reason I went with Ewing over Wade/Nash is because you get more career value out of him. He's got much better longevity than D-Wade and a slight edge on Nash prime vs. prime. I do believe Ewing's defense + offense (combined impact) scales up on a strong title contender at his peak/prime. We're talking about one of the great defenders in NBA history, a guy who anchored GOAT-level team defenses at his peak, and top-line defenses for nearly a decade.

[The Infamous1]

I wonder when people will start making an argument for Durant

[Basketballefan]

I wonder when people will start making an argument for Durant

Shouldn't be anytime soon. 7 seasons isn't enough.

[tsherkin]

Hmmmm.

Pettit in ahead of Ewing, for whom I mostly voted since no one else was getting traction.

Let's kick things off with a post about Dirk.

MVP. Two trips to the Finals, one ring and a Finals MVP.

12 straight All-NBA selections. 11 straight All-Star selections, then another in 2014. Three straight top-3 finishes in the MVP vote from 05-07 (winning it in 07). 6 other top 10 finishes. 13th all-time in FT%. 24th in PPG. 11 top-10 finishes in PER, if anyone cares, 5 top 5 finishes, and led the league in 06 (2nd in 07). 12th lowest all-time TOV% in the NBA (13th if you include the ABA). Active leader in OWS, 8th all-time, led the league in 06 and 07. Finished top 3 4 other times (the 4 years leading up to 06 and 07). 2 other top 5 finishes. Was 7th this past season. Led the league in WS/48 from 05-07, was top 4 in 01-03. Finished 7th or 9th in 08, 10, 11 and 14. In 2014, he was 9th at .199.

Crazy playoff scorer, upped his rebounding big time in the post season. 25.6 ppg on 57.9% TS / 117 ORTG / .196 WS/48 in the playoffs. Led the playoffs in WS/48 three times (.287, .263 and .291). 01-11, his postseason WS/48 is actually .207.

22.5 ppg in the RS on 58.2% TS / 117 ORTG / .208 WS/48. Maintained that pretty well going into the postseason.

5 seasons of 25+ ppg.

Wicked mismatch stretch forward. .375 FTR on his career, too, but was over .400 for a chunk of his prime (5 seasons of .400+ FTR).


A simple post, but there we go, now his name is out there.

[colts18]

Vote: Steve Nash


Team impact:

2004 Suns- 29 wins, 101.4 O rating, 21st (No nash)
2005 Suns- 62 wins, 114.5 O rating, 1st (with Nash)

Thats a huge transformation with just Nash being the main piece added. In 2004, Marion/Amare/Johnson had a 104.8 O rating when they were on the court together. In 2005, those 3+Nash equaled a 122.2 O rating. Thats how much impact Nash had on the offense.


2012 Suns- 0.29 SRS, 106.2 O rating, 9th (with Nash)
2013 Suns- -5.75 SRS, 101.2 O rating, 29th (no Nash)

The Suns went from a top 10 offense with Nash to almost the worst offense without Nash.

According to NBA.com, From 02-10, Steve Nash's offensive teams were ranked #1 every single year in offensive rating. 9 straight years of #1 offenses


Missed games from 2005-2012:
11-26 record (.297, 24 win pace)
-5.87 SRS (Equivalent to the 2013 Suns SRS)
105.2 O rating vs 106.1 Opp D rating (-0.87 offense )

So the Suns offense was actually below average in the games Nash missed. For all the talk about Nash's crap defense, the Suns had an astonishing 113.5 D rating in these games. That would be by far the worst in the NBA this year.

Here are the missed game numbers from 2005-2007, Nash's Peak:
4-12 record
-6.45 SRS
104.7 O rating vs 105.7 opp D rating (-0.99 offense)

The Suns allowed a 112.6 D rating in these games. This is peak Nash where the team played like a 60 win team when he was on the court, yet acted like one of the worst teams when he is off.


Best offenses:

Here are the top offenses in NBA history by O rating, includes playoffs

Rank Year Team eORtg Offense
1 2007 Phoenix Suns 116 3.25
2 2005 Phoenix Suns 116.1 2.92
3 1971 Milwaukee Bucks 108.2 2.72
4 2010 Phoenix Suns 116.4 2.59
5 1982 Denver Nuggets 113.4 2.56
6 2004 Dallas Mavericks 110.8 2.49
7 1975 Houston Rockets 104.1 2.4
8 1987 Los Angeles Lakers 115.9 2.34
9 2004 Sacramento Kings 110.3 2.33
10 2006 Phoenix Suns 113.1 2.31
11 2009 Phoenix Suns 114.4 2.13
12 1988 Boston Celtics 114.7 2.12
13 1998 Seattle Supersonics 113.2 2.07
14 1996 Chicago Bulls 116.3 2.02
15 1985 Los Angeles Lakers 114.6 2.01
16 1978 San Antonio Spurs 106.8 2
17 1995 Seattle Supersonics 116 2
18 2004 Seattle Supersonics 109.3 1.99
19 2002 Dallas Mavericks 110.4 1.98
20 1997 Seattle Supersonics 114.4 1.94


7 out the top 20 offenses of all-time belong to a Steve Nash team. No one in history has done anything like that.

The most common criticism of Nash is his playoff offenses, yet his teams played amazing offense in the playoffs.

Best playoff offensive ratings relative to opponents D rating:
1. Suns 2005 16.2
2. Suns 2010 12.6
3. Lakers 2001 12.2
4. Suns 1992 11.8
5. Suns 1995 11.5
6. Bulls 1991 10.9
7. Lakers 1987 10.5
8. Nuggets 2009 10.2
9. Mavericks 2003 10.0
10. Lakers 1985 9.8
11. Lakers 1998 9.5
12. Kings 2003 9.5
13. Magic 1996 9.3
14. Rockets 1997 9.3
15. Lakers 1989 9.1
16. Mavericks 2002 9.0
17. Spurs 2006 9.0
18. Suns 2006 9.0
19. Bulls 1993 8.9
20. Mavericks 2005 8.7

Here are Nash's playoff on court Offensive rating

05: 118.7
06: 116.5
07: 112.5
10: 120.6

05 vs Grizzlies: 124.1 Ortg vs 102.9 Drtg (+21.2)
05 vs Mavs: 118.1 Ortg vs. 104.1 Drtg (+14)
05 vs Spurs: 115.7 Ortg vs 98.8 Drtg (+16.9)

06 vs Lakers: 115 Ortg vs 105.7 Drtg (+9.3)
06 vs Clippers: 115.1 Ortg vs 103.8 Drtg (+11.3)
06 vs Mavs: 113.3 Ortg vs 105 Drtg (+8.3)

07 vs Lakers: 111.8 Ortg vs 105.6 Drtg (+6.2)
07 vs Spurs: 109.6 Ortg vs 99.9 Drtg (+9.7)

10 vs Blazers: 111.5 Ortg vs. 107.1 Drtg (+4.4)
10 vs Spurs: 124.5 Ortg vs 104.5 Drtg (+20)
10 vs Lakers: 122 Ortg vs 103.7 Drtg (+18.3)


RAPM:

Best offensive RAPM's in the RAPM era:

Year Rank Name Offense per 100
2007 1 Steve Nash 7.9
2010 2 Dwyane Wade 7.6
2007 3 Baron Davis 7.5
2008 4 Steve Nash 7.4
2010 5 LeBron James 7.1
2007 6 LeBron James 7.1
2009 7 LeBron James 6.6
2007 8 Manu Ginobili 6.5
2010 9 Steve Nash 6.3
2007 10 Tim Duncan 6.3
2011 11 Steve Nash 6.2
2009 12 Steve Nash 6.2

5 out of the top 12 belong to Nash. This doesn't even include his 2005 season where he had a 121.7 On court offensive rating, the highest ever since 1997


System/conventional lineup argument:

There is an argument that somehow Nash can only succeed in 1 system (Dantoni). D'Antoni left after 2008, yet Nash still had 2 of his best offenses in the next 2 years. Here is how D'Antoni's offenses ranked in the years after leaving Nash:

17th
17th
7th
17th
9th
21st

Looks like Nash deserves more of the credit than D'Antoni.

Nash has had success with more conventional lineups. In 2006, He succeeded with Kurt Thomas as his center. In 2008, Nash had a 119.1 O rating with Shaq/Amare on the court. That's a traditional big lineup and Nash was as good as ever.

Here is how certain players did with and without Nash. Nash showed huge impact on these players and it could be argued that Nash made them stars.

Marion:
Before Nash: .513 TS%, 107 O rating
Nash comes to Phx: .566 TS%, 116 O rating

08 w/Nash: .594 TS%, 119 O rating
08 after Nash: .503 TS%, 99 O rating

Amare:
Before Nash: .536 TS%, 102 O rating
Nash comes to Phx: .617 TS%, 121 O rating

with Nash 2010: .615 TS%, 117 O rating
after Nash 2011: .565 TS%, 109 O rating

Shaq:
08 before Nash: .577 TS%, 100 O rating
08 with Nash: .605 TS%, 103 O rating

09 with Nash: .623 TS%, 117 O rating
10 leaves Nash: .565 TS%, 104 O rating

[DannyNoonan1221]

Hmmmm.

Pettit in ahead of Ewing, for whom I mostly voted since no one else was getting traction.

Let's kick things off with a post about Dirk.

MVP. Two trips to the Finals, one ring and a Finals MVP.

12 straight All-NBA selections. 11 straight All-Star selections, then another in 2014. Three straight top-3 finishes in the MVP vote from 05-07 (winning it in 07). 6 other top 10 finishes. 13th all-time in FT%. 24th in PPG. 11 top-10 finishes in PER, if anyone cares, 5 top 5 finishes, and led the league in 06 (2nd in 07). 12th lowest all-time TOV% in the NBA (13th if you include the ABA). Active leader in OWS, 8th all-time, led the league in 06 and 07. Finished top 3 4 other times (the 4 years leading up to 06 and 07). 2 other top 5 finishes. Was 7th this past season. Led the league in WS/48 from 05-07, was top 4 in 01-03. Finished 7th or 9th in 08, 10, 11 and 14. In 2014, he was 9th at .199.

Crazy playoff scorer, upped his rebounding big time in the post season. 25.6 ppg on 57.9% TS / 117 ORTG / .196 WS/48 in the playoffs. Led the playoffs in WS/48 three times (.287, .263 and .291). 01-11, his postseason WS/48 is actually .207.

22.5 ppg in the RS on 58.2% TS / 117 ORTG / .208 WS/48. Maintained that pretty well going into the postseason.

5 seasons of 25+ ppg.

Wicked mismatch stretch forward. .375 FTR on his career, too, but was over .400 for a chunk of his prime (5 seasons of .400+ FTR).


A simple post, but there we go, now his name is out there.

Dirk was voted #16

[tsherkin]

Dirk was voted #16

LOL at me, not backreading the list to double check!

[penbeast0]

Gilmore v. Ewing

Scoring -- EDGE GILMORE, especially in the playoffs
Ewing scores at greater volume and range, Gilmore with greater efficiency
Per 36 minutes, career Gilmore is 19.0 on .623ts% (more efficient in NBA than ABA), peaking at 26.3 on .702ts% in 1982 (part of 5 straight years leading the NBA in fg%), playoffs 17.5 on .602 (his years in Chicago were on weak teams but except in 1976, he was never a dominant playoff scorer)
Per 36 minutes, career Ewing is 22.0 on .553ts%, peaking at 26.7 on .599ts% in 1990. Playoffs 19.4 on .517 (but Patrick really got inefficient in the playoffs)

Rebounding -- With Gilmore's lesser competition at his mid 70s peak but stronger numbers -- even
Gilmore 18.0 reb %, 18.0 playoffs
Ewing 16.5 reb%, 16.7 in playoffs

Passing -- Ewing for his career is 2.0ast/3.1to, Gilmore is 2.3ast/3.2to, neither were particularly strong -- even

Defense -- Gilmore at his peak was more visible and feared; Ewing's teams had consistently superior defenses (with stronger personnel around him). Gilmore in the NBA was much more stationary, staying in the low post while Ewing was more aggressive. EDGE EWING

Intangibles -- Neither was a cerebral player, neither had a high basketball IQ, but Ewing was a fighter and aggressive player while Gilmore, with the possible exception of 75 and 76, was often criticized for his passivity. EDGE EWING

The numbers say Gilmore was better but while I don't think the mid 70s ABA was that much below the mid 70s NBA (take Kareem out of the NBA and Virginia out of the ABA and I'd say even improving to ABA superiority in 75 and 76), I do think the mid 70s were weaker than the 80s. However, the big key for me is the star mentality setting the tone for the players. Ewing's aggression sets a more winning team tone than Gilmore's more passive star personality. When Gilmore stepped up and took more responsibility (75 and 76), you saw a more positive team response (75 title run was all Artis), but then he got to a dysfunctional Chicago team and instead of taking a leadership role, he just seemed to set up for his own statistics.

Although I vote Frazier over Ewing for the playoff heroics and leadership, I would prefer Ewing over Gilmore for his fire and aggression though Artis is the more talented.

[tsherkin]

OK, well in that case (and that really works better with my general perception of Dirk), I return to my discussion of Ewing from the previous thread, since I wanted him in ahead of Pettit anyway.

[penbeast0]

I wonder when people will start making an argument for Durant

I would bet he starts getting serious mentions between 25 and 30 though where he ends up is beyond my prognostication since there are a lot of outstanding players coming up. Even as a SF, do you rank him ahead of Baylor, Pippen, Havlicek, Barry?

[The Infamous1]

I wonder when people will start making an argument for Durant

Shouldn't be anytime soon. 7 seasons isn't enough.

That's true but a few things

A. No left is clearly a better basketball player than Durant has been the last 2 seasons.
B. He's got 5 top 5(more like top 2) player level seasons from 10-14.
C. As a franchise centerpiece he's led OKC to 3 conference finals and one finals appearance playing in a loaded west.

[ceiling raiser]

You know, since Ewing (my likely vote again) and Frazier (who I'm high on as well) have received support, what do you guys think about Reed? Both of his FMVP's likely should go to Frazier from my understanding, but I wonder what kind of traction he should be getting here? Some questions I have on him:

1) How good was he defensively, and what degree of responsibility did he have on that end on his teams?
2) How skilled/effective was he in the post?
3) What was his effective shooting range? From how far out was he consistent?
4) How would you guys compare him to Ewing and Dwight (who I think should be receiving consideration sooner than later as well)?

Just to throw another name out there, what about Thurmond?

[ShaqAttack3234]

I'm going with Ewing again. The reasons being he does want you want your centers to do at both ends at a high level. Those of course being block shots, anchor your defense, rebound and score in the post in addition to having an excellent jump shot for a traditional center and he made his free throws. He did these things at a high enough level to be the anchor of all-time great defenses(though of course not solely responsible), peak at 4 bpg, 6 BLK% and nearly 29 ppg on 55 FG% and 60 TS% and was a 26/11, 3 bpg, 52 FG% player in his prime.

[PCProductions]

I must certainly have missed the discussion if there has been any, but has anyone brought up Elvin Hayes yet?

[ceiling raiser]

I must certainly have missed the discussion if there has been any, but has anyone brought up Elvin Hayes yet?

I don't think so, but I'd love to hear ElGee chime in on him. I remember he was very high on E as a defender, and I'd love to hear him elaborate (though I think he already has, maybe we can find some posts by him on Hayes).

[DQuinn1575]

Real heavy lean to Mikan.

Unquestionably best player in league for a number of years.

Dominated best black players of his team in games against former world champion globetrotters.

Obviously played against weaker opponents, but it's not under his control.

If we disregard era we have top 3-4 player.

Those who say no way let me know about where he should rank.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[trex_8063]

Dirk was voted #16

LOL at me, not backreading the list to double check!

I had to scroll back to the top and make sure I'd opened the correct thread after I read your post.

Anyway, the top two I'm considering at this point are John Stockton, for reasons I laid out in the prior thread:

Spoiler:

John Stockton
Wicked prime; from '88 thru '97 (10 seasons in which he missed FOUR GAMES TOTAL).......
Per 100 rs: 21.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 17.9 ast, 3.6 stl, 4.7 tov on .619 TS%
22.7 PER, .221 WS/48, 122 ORtg/104 DRtg in 36.2 mpg
Per 100 ps: 21.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 16.2 ast, 2.8 stl, 4.5 tov on .574 TS%
20.4 PER, .163 WS/48, 117 ORtg/108 DRtg in 39.0 mpg

And fwiw, the only reason I'm declaring '97 the end to his prime is because '97 was the final season in which he was playing "star level" minutes. His level of play otherwise didn't really decline significantly: from '88 on (the last SIXTEEN seasons of his career, right down to the bitter end), he NEVER had a season with a PER <21; he had only 2 seasons out of 16 with a WS/48 <.200; he had TWO seasons in his post-prime with the league's best ORtg (while also only having TWO seasons of his final six which I am calling his "post-prime" in which his DRtg was worse than league average). For impact stats, we only have data for these years that I am classifying as his post-prime, and yet the results could be construed as "eye-opening" to say the least. Here is his league rank in combined PI RAPM for each year:
'98--->7th
'99--->8th
'00--->8th
*'01--->3rd (*NPI)
'02--->12th
'03--->13th

Dude has left a massive statistical footprint on the game......
#1 all-time in career rs assists and steals, and has such a sizable lead in both that these are records none of us are likely to see broken in our lifetimes: has 3,715 more assists than the 2nd-place guy, 581 more steals than the 2nd-place guy. Is #5 all-time in career rs win shares.
Is #2 all-time in career playoff assists and #4 in career playoff steals, too; #16 all-time in career playoff WS. He's also inside the top 50 all-time in career rs points, inside top 40 in career playoff points.

Anyway, he's got a more than credible resume for the spot, and really should be gaining a lot of traction now that we're out of the top 20, imo.

....And Dwyane Wade. Reasons for Wade: arguably the highest peak left out there (certainly in the conversation), excellent two-way player, and certainly has the team-related "career accomplishments" (obv had a bit of help there). Only major ding against him is again the longevity/durability angle.


btw, I know I have appeared harshly critical of Ewing. fwiw, I hear the arguments....I simply don't entirely agree. I recognize his defense has gone under-credited (both during his career and since), largely in part to be simply over-shadowed by other all-time great defensive bigs.
I do consider him a top 5-7 all-time defensive center, and probably top 8-10 defensive player overall. But I'm not overly sold on his offense. He's one of those bigs who imo was called upon to shoulder more offensive load than he was really suited to; and I simply don't see him as the same class of offensive player as most of the other centers already voted in. I'm not saying he's Jermaine O'Neal; but to me he's somewhere in between Jermaine O'Neal and David Robinson offensively.
He does have some nice leadership intangibles to go with all of that, too, I'll give him that. Overall, it's a very nice package......just not one I'm willing to hand a vote for #21 or #22.

[Clyde Frazier]

I think ewing is deserving here, and like I said last thread, i'm surprised by how much traction he already got. That said, i'll go back and check out some other players before submitting my vote.

FORWARDS

I remember you saying something about not rating barry all that highly, and then noticed he wasn't mentioned here. I'm well aware of the criticism of his off the court personality. Do you feel that personality actually prevented him from being more successful as a player? I'm not sure that it did.

[ronnymac2]

I wonder when people will start making an argument for Durant

Shouldn't be anytime soon. 7 seasons isn't enough.

That's true but a few things

A. No left is clearly a better basketball player than Durant has been the last 2 seasons.
B. He's got 5 top 5(more like top 2) player level seasons from 10-14.
C. As a franchise centerpiece he's led OKC to 3 conference finals and one finals appearance playing in a loaded west.

A. Since you said "Clearly", I agree. He's had one hell of a peak already.
B. He wasn't that great in 2010. Other than that, sure.
C. Agreed.

Reason why I personally can't vote for him yet is because I don't see an argument over D-Wade. I'd put 2009 Wade over any version of KD so far, and Wade has better longevity in terms of prime seasons AND overall career. If Dwyane Wade beats you in longevity, it's hard to come back from that (on my list).

If one thinks KD is better peak-wise and values peak highly, it's understandable to begin voting for Durant soon.