fpliii wrote:pen and Q touched on him a little, but I'm wondering how you guys feel about the Reed-Dwight comparison? It looks like Dwight's going to make the runoff (or win outright), but I'd be interested in reading some thoughts on the two.
This was from a prior thread (you may have already read it) when lukeharts voiced a similar question:
Spoiler:
lukekarts wrote:With Dwight getting penbeasts vote, I'm surprised there's not been any more discussion there, or indeed a justification as to why Howard, when you have a number of bigs - MVP-winning bigs such as Cowens and Reed, who are both perhaps overdue some discussion.
Penbeast, what's your reasoning for Dwight over those guys?
While you're not asking me (and I don't necessarily rank Howard ahead of both of them), I'll answer to this.....
While Cowens and Reed are indeed both MVP-winners, I don't think that necessarily need be a big distinction. Both of their MVP's can be taken with a grain of salt as---fairly clearly, imo---neither was ever the best player in the league. In a vacuum, I don't think anyone would seriously have considered taking Reed over West or an injury-free Wilt (or potentially a few others, like maybe teammate Walt Frazier) in '70. In a vacuum, I don't think most would take Cowens over Kareem, at the very least (+/- a few others), in '73. Note, for instance, that while they won MVP's, they ranked only 4th in RealGM RPoY project in their respective MVP years. And fwiw, Howard very easily could have been awarded the rs MVP over Rose in '11.
I'll give my "broad strokes" evaluation of their player qualities. I'm going to use broad categories, listed in what I think of as a rough descending order of importance for a center, and for each I'll rate them with a very simple 6-tiered labeling system (although I'll give some "in between" rates):
Great
Very Good
Good
Fair
Poor
Atrocious
And fwiw, I'm rating them vs other centers only, but to the full player spectrum of centers (i.e. including the Charles Shackleford's of the world as well as the Wilt's, Russell's, and Hakeem's). btw, "Intangibles" refers to a variety of things, including screen setting, leadership (on the court, on the bench, in practice/locker room, as well as with the media, off-season, etc), clutch play, hustle, etc.
Defense
Howard: Very Good
Reed: Good-to-Very Good
Cowens: Good-to-Very Good
Although Howard has three DPoY awards, I simply cannot quite think of him as a "great" defender in the same tier with guys like Mutombo, DRob, and Russell. While he's got all the physical tools, he doesn't appear to have the defensive smarts, instincts and timing to be a rim-protector in the same league as those guys. He's even behind Duncan, imo, as a shot-blocker (note Howard's career best per 100 blocks is 4.3, career avg is 3.1......Duncan's best is 4.5, career avg 3.4; even looking only at Howard's prime ('07-present) and looking at (mostly post-prime) Duncan over the same years, Duncan still holds even with him at 3.3). I posted on this at length some months ago. Howard hasn't consistently seemed to recognize some crucial technique involved in being a dominant shot-blocker, or realize that it's not all about elevation and reach......was Duncan really elevating at age 36 when he avg 2.7 bpg in just 30.1 mpg? It's very much about footwork (getting yourself in a position close to the shooter) and timing (often minimal jump required if you're timing is sound). Howard's more fond of the mega-leap for the big grand-standing "swat".
As a man defender, I don't seem him having the sound fundamentals of some other great defenders, although with the finite number of good offensive centers in the recent era, this hasn't been a big short-coming for him. I only voice these criticisms to site why I think he is definitively NOT a "great" defender. I still think he's worth a "very good", though.
Reed I gather was a fair-to-decent shot-blocker in his prime. I think his skills shined more in a man-defense set, though, where he was good at pushing guys off the block, making them catch the ball further from the hoop than they'd like, bodying up hard, etc. Man defense was a bigger deal in his time, too, because he'd routinely be facing elite offensive centers like Kareem, Wilt, Bellamy, etc. Not much lateral quickness that I could see, though. fwiw, here's some H2H stuff vs. Kareem (I haven't delved too far into the H2H finder for Reed):
Kareem avg’s 1969-73: 31.4 ppg, 8.1 FTA in rs
Kareem’s ‘70 playoff avg’s: 35.2 ppg, 10.1 FTA
Kareem H2H against Reed: 30.0 ppg (-1.4), 7.1 FTA (-1.0) in rs (5-11 record)
34.2 ppg (-1.0), 9.6 FTA (-0.5) in playoffs (1-4 record)
Cowens was the least valuable shot-blocker/rim-protector of the three. However, he too was pretty good at solid physical man defense. And he also appeared to have the best lateral quickness and defensive footwork if caught guarding a perimeter player on a switch. He also had a lot of hustle and heart. There's that one famous clip where he picks Robertson's pocket and hustles down the loose ball that showcases these latter aspects. I think he'd be the best of the three in defending the high pick-n'-roll in a modern context.
Scoring
Howard: Very good
Reed: Good-to-Very Good
Cowens: Fair-to-Good
Some may object to my rating Howard above the rest in this regard, so I'll explain my thinking. Howard's the tallest (if only marginally), arguably the strongest, and certainly the most explosive of the three guys. It has made him the best finisher by far. He also has a decent little jump-hook with either hand (he's almost better with his left than his right at this point). In raw numbers, Howard's scoring volume compares very well. When you pace-adjust it, he comes out significantly ahead, and he did so on better shooting efficiency, too (MUCH better when compared to Cowens). Although he does also likely have the highest turnover rate. Howard also has a much higher foul-draw rate than the other two. Even though he's not a good FT-shooter, the foul draw can still be significant: if teams employ a hack-a-Howard strategy or simply end up fouling a lot to prevent easy hoops that Howard otherwise gets himself in position for, this can lead to both foul trouble for the opposing team, or getting them in the penalty early in the quarter (which may result in FT's for Howard's better-shooting teammates).
I'd also point out that we could claim Howard has, to some degree, been at a disadvantage compared to the other two. The installing of a 3-point line, as well as recent rules changes have sort of stream-lined things for perimeter players on offense, essentially taking shot attempts away from low-post players.
Rebounding
Howard: Great (might reserve a "deity" category for Wilt, Russell, and Rodman)
Reed: Good-to-Very Good
Cowens: Very Good
Intangibles
Howard: Poor
Reed: Very Good-to-Great
Cowens: Good
Passing
Howard: Fair (maybe Poor-to-Fair???? or is that too harsh?)
Reed: Fair
Cowens: Great
As I see it, Howard certainly seems in the same neighborhood as these guys, and arguably marginally better. Statistical analysis will favor Howard:
Prime Reed (‘65-’71)---551 rs games
Estimated Per 100 possessions: 22.7 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.0 ast @ 52.5% TS% (+3.1% to league)
PER 19.0, .158 WS/48 in 36.9 mpg
Career rs WS: 74.9
Career playoff WS: 7.9
Prime Cowens (‘71-’78)--592 rs games
Estimated Per 100 possessions: 20.1 pts, 16.3 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.1 blk with 3.1 tov @ 49.5% TS% (-1.1% to league)
PER 17.6, .148 WS/48 in 40.3 mpg (only 1 prime year---’78---with both ORtg and DRtg: 108/97 (+11))
Career rs WS: 86.3
Career playoff WS: 9.4
Prime Dwight Howard (‘07-’14)--604 rs games
Per 100 possessions: 27.9 pts, 19.1 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.5 stl, 3.3 blk with 4.8 tov @ 60.5% TS% (+6.6% to league)
PER 23.1, .191 WS/48, 110 ORtg/97 DRtg (+13) in 36.3 mpg
Career rs WS: 103.1
Career playoff WS: 10.2
At this point, neither Cowens nor Reed has any particular longevity case on Howard.
Howard's got roughly 8 prime seasons amounting to 604 games, and 768 total rs games in 10 seasons. Cowen's has roughly 8 prime years amounting to 592 games, and 766 total rs games in 11 seasons. Reed, quite obviously, has the worst longevity/durability of the three: 7 prime seasons (551 rs games), with just 650 total games in 10 seasons.
Given the longevity concern as well as the above data and analysis, tbh I think Reed has historically been overrated.
Anyway, my 2c on the comparison(s).....
