Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#1 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:52 am

PG: Tim Hardaway and Mark Price are the best long peak guys left, Nate Archibald and Penny Hardaway are the main short peak guys

Wings: I am leaning toward a forward right now . . .

Defensive stalwarts: Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, Larry Nance, Bobby Jones, Shawn Marion (should add Horace Grant and Rasheed Wallace here too . . . )

Spoiler:
Why Wallace? Time after time, stronger analytics have emphasized the role of the shot blocking defensive intimidator being more valuable than any other defensive skill. Wallace is the epitome of this role and a multiple DPOY who anchored a defensive powerhouse NBA title team.

Why not? Arguably the worst offensive player to ever start in the NBA. Didn't impress after he left the Pistons.

Why Rodman? GOAT rebounder, excellent defender (still good defender during peak rebounding years even if he cheated off his man at times), a key piece on championship teams in both Detroit and Chicago.

Why not? Headcase and disruptive force. Brings very little offensively.

Why Nance? He (or Kirilenko) is the greatest shotblocking non-center ever. Very efficient offensive player who could score at a reasonable level, passed well, good moving without the ball. Won the first NBA slam dunk contest over Julius Erving among others.

Why not? Always a complimentary player. Stats dropped in the playoffs. Average rebounder. Didn't create shots.

Why Bobby Jones? More 1st team all-defense awards than anyone else in NBA history. Extremely versatile, able to play C, PF (played a lot of both in Denver), SF, and even SG (next to Julius Erving in Philly). Very efficient offensive player, good passer, extremely high motor. Willing to sacrifice own minutes and ego for the team, even willing to come of the bench. Was best player on the team with the best record in the ABA in 1975, consistent winner throughout his career.

Why not Bobby Jones? Not a volume scorer or strong rebounder. Played limited minutes throughout his career.

Why Shawn Marion? One of the best rebounding SFs ever, excellent defender both in man and in help, versatile enough to play 3 positions, when Amare went down with an injury, he and Nash kept Phoenix rolling without missing a beat, was a good roleplayer post-prime including the primary defender role frustrating LeBron James in Dallas's NBA title. Great off ball explosive player who can lead team in scoring without having to run isos for him.

Why not Marion? More efficient with Nash than without; whined a bit in Phoenix and was ineffective when first traded away until he adjusted to his new role. Production dropped off in the playoffs.


Comparing 4 guys known as scoring 3's: Carmelo Anthony, Billy Cunningham, Marques Johnson, James Worthy (should get around to adding Chris Mullin and Glen Rice to the mix, maybe even Jamaal Wilkes or Bobby Dandridge).
Spoiler:
Longevity: All played over 10 seasons, with Marques Johnson being the short minute player at 23,694.

Scoring: Anthony is the highest scoring of the bunch at 25.2 for his career, Worthy is the only one falling short of 20ppg at 17.6. Worthy does improve in terms of playoff scoring to over 20ppg with Cunningham falling to 19.6 but that still only puts James 3rd in this crew and Carmelo still leads at 25.7ppg for his playoff career. (Cunningham passes both Worthy and Marques Johnson in per minute with Johnson falling below 20pp36 as a playoff scorer but he averaged the most minutes)

Efficiency: All score at close to a .550 efficiency except Cunningham who is significantly lower at .509ts%. Worthy justifies his playoff rep by increasing his playoff scoring efficiency. Anthony drops all the way to .513, Johnson to .528, Cunningham to .489.

Rebounding and Passing: Cunningham has clearly the highest rebound rate (rebounds adjusted for era) at 14.2, the others range from just under 9 (Worthy) to just over 11 (Johnson). Cunningham is also the assist leader though all have career Ast% close to 16 (except Worthy who is only 14.0); Cunningham does show a much higher turnover rate though. These numbers are consistent with playoff performance.

Defense: Defense is far more subjective. In terms of career DWS, Cunningham ranks out the highest at 37.7, with all the others in the 25 to 30 range. In terms of rep, Cunningham and Worthy had good defensive reps, neither of the others are known for defense.


Best bigs left: My favorite is Mel Daniels with his 2 ABA MVPs and 3 rings (2 as clearly the best player) -- played like Alonzo Mourning offensively and Moses defensively -- but his weaknesses (and the weakness of the early ABA) are problematic. Bill Walton and Connie Hawkins are super short, super peak guys. Neil Johnston, Amare, Dan Issel, Jerry Lucas, and Spencer Haywood have offensive creds but bigs who don't play good defense are problematic for me. Even Zelmo Beaty, Elton Brand, Chris Bosh, Chris Webber, and Yao Ming are on my radar.

Although he's probably the guy I dislike most, I think I have to vote for Dennis Rodman. The rebounding and defense he provides are an incredibly valuable commodity if you are trying to win a title.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#2 » by Quotatious » Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:47 am

I voted for Tiny, and I'll still do so here, but honestly, I'm glad that Cousy is finally in. I feel like he definitely deserved it, I just had no idea how high he should rank.

Vote: Tiny Archibald.

Same reasoning as always - higher peak than anyone not named Bill Walton, but much better longevity than Bill (even his role on the Celtics' championship team was much bigger, comparing '81 Archibald to '86 Walton), 3-time All-NBA 1st team, 2-time All-NBA 2nd team choice, 54th in career MVP shares, one of just two players who led the league in scoring and assists in the same season.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jan 14, 2015 6:05 am

With Cousy finally in, I reluctantly find myself inclined to start another uphill battle. 'Cause the guy I'd most like to see get in next is someone I know isn't going to be a popular pick here. But the guy I'm feeling is Chris Webber.

I know he didn't make the most of his talents, but that's not really what this list is about. If "making the most of what you got" were the criteria, Muggsy Bogues would be a top 3 player.

Few cherry-picked qualifiers.....

*1 of only 10 players to ever average more than 20 pts, 10 reb, and 5 ast in the same season. The others are Wilt, Kareem, Legend, Barkley, Garnett, Oscar, Baylor, Billy Cunningham, and Sidney Wicks (note that 6 of the other 9 guys are top 20 players, 7 of them are top 35 players).

**1 of only 9 players to ever average more than 24 pts, 10 reb, 4.5 ast on >/= 54.0% ts in the same season. The others are Wilt, Kareem, Larry, Garnett, Barkley, Oscar, DRob, and Connie Hawkins (again note that other than Hawkins, all the others are top 20 guys).

***1 of 10 players to ever average more than 25 pts, 11 reb, and 4 ast in the same season. The others are again: Wilt, Kareem, Larry, Barkley, and Baylor; plus Billy Cunningham, Bob McAdoo, Kevin Love, and Karl Malone.....Kevin Garnett and David Robinson both fall out based on these criteria.

****1 of 6 players to---within the same season---average more than 10 reb, 4.5 ast, and 1.5 blk, while also qualifying for the steals leaderboard and also shoot >/= 53.0% ts. The others are Kareem, Garnett, David Robinson, Bob Lanier, and Joakim Noah.
Webber is 1 of 3 guys to do this more than once (with Kareem and Garnett).


So, yes he relied too much on his mid-range and outside shooting rather than getting to the rim. But the guy was just a phenomenal physical specimen with an extremely versatile skill-set: post game, handles, guard skills.....Very unique player. He's one of only three players to average more than 20 pts, 9.5 reb, and 4 ast for his entire career (Larry and Wilt are the only others).
Got an All-NBA 1st Team while facing prime versions of both Duncan and Garnett at his position. Finished 4th in MVP voting that same year; had four other years in the top 10 in MVP voting.

Highlight reel, fwiw:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QM8lsrwsQqM[/youtube]

idk.....I could hear arguments for Tony Parker, maybe Hal Greer or Dennis Rodman at this point, too.
But tentatively I'm going to vote for Chris Webber.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#4 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:40 am

Vote: Nate "Tiny" Archibald

Unguardable in his prime. He's got 4 seasons where he averages at least 24.8 points and 6.8 assists. He later became the heady leader of a multi-polar Boston Celtic squad which contended throughout Nate's time there, peaking with a title in 1981. Excellent free throw shooter, unselfish, and doesn't have problems other 1970s stars had aside from injuries.
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Re: Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#5 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:31 pm

The problem with Webber is that a great deal of his value is his numbers as an alpha. However, if you actually want to win a championship, he is one of the guys you least want with the ball in his hands. Add to that his poor leadership skills (particularly in Golden State and Washington) and the fact that his raw numbers tend to overstate his value and while I agree he's in discussion at his point, I see him in the same region as a Walt Bellamy:

How many players have ever had a 30ppg/19rpg season . . . just 2, Wilt and Walt . . . and Bellamy led the league in efficiency while doing it. His numbers are as spectacular as Webber's, his career is as long, his personality issues about as problematic . . . while I have may have Webber slightly ahead, I'd listen to arguments the other way. The same goes for Jerry Lucas who I have ahead of either Bellamy or Webber. That doesn't even include 2 time ABA MVP Mel Daniels, Yao Ming, Amare (whose accolades in an even more modern era are even better), or guys like Shawn Marion or Larry Nance who are far better complimentary players than Webber could be (he needed the ball in his hands to be effective, was more than a little sulky about sharing the primacy, and publicly refused to play center to give Rasheed Wallace and Juwan Howard minutes at PF for example).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#6 » by Quotatious » Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:19 pm

I'm not sure what makes Webber better than Bosh. Much less efficient scorer, worse defender (at least Miami Bosh is better on D than Webber was, but even Toronto Bosh is roughly on the same level - both are average), very comparable rebounder (Webber's career TRB% is 14.6, Bosh's 14.3 in the RS, 13.3 to 13.1 for Webber in the playoffs), and Webber was never a good playoff performer (for example his TS% in the postseason is below 50%). Webber is a top 5 passing/playmaking bigman of all-time, which is certainly nice, but for a bigman, I'd like to see good defense and efficient scoring, rather than great passing.

Longevity is similar, but Bosh's career WS are already higher (98.7 to 84.7 in RS, 9.4 to 5.5 in PS, 108.1 to 90.2 total). Bosh's durability is clearly better, which makes him a better building block, if you want one of these two guys to lead your team to the playoffs.

Career RS PER:

Webber - 20.9
Bosh - 20.6

Career PS PER:

Webber - 18.9
Bosh - 18.4

Peak RS PER:

Bosh - 25.0 (2010)
Webber - 24.7 (2001)

Career WS/48 (RS):

Bosh - 16.0
Webber - 13.2

Career WS/48 (PS):

Bosh - 14.4
Webber - 9.0

Peak scoring season:

Bosh - 24.0 PPG on 59.2% TS (+4.9% league average) in 2010, 83.2 combined PPG + TS%
Webber - 27.1 PPG on 51.6% TS (-0.2% league average) in 2001, 78.7 combined PPG + TS%

FWIW, Webber has much higher career BPM (3.7, Bosh's is just 1.2), and VORP (44.2 to 23.7).

Peak NPI RAPM is in Bosh's favor, too (+4.2 for Bosh in 2008, +2.9 for Webber in 2001), as well as xRAPM (+6.1 for Bosh in 2008, +4.3 for Webber in 2001).

Bosh's edge as a scorer gets ever bigger when you know that he was the sole focal point of his team's offense, and his team was pretty weak aside from him, while Webber was volume scoring on a below average efficiency on a 55 win, 6+ SRS team.

Especially after seeing how good the '04 Kings were, with Webber playing only 23 games in the RS, I've never been a believer in his impact (even their offense didn't really suffer, as they had the 2nd best offense in the league, and Divac/Miller were able to execute those Princeton sets extremely well, too).

It's close, but I prefer Bosh (especially considering that he likely has a few good seasons ahead of him).

I know that trex and I tend to disagree about Webber, he's much higher on him than I am, but I think this comparison might be helpful, and it might make people look at Bosh more seriously here.

I'd seriously consider taking Shawn Marion over Webber, too (Webber is much more of a franchise player offensively, but he's not really a great offensive anchor, and Marion is way better defensively, and just as good of a rebounder, despite being much smaller), plus he has a sizeable edge in terms of longevity.

Also, how about Carmelo here? I'm not really high on him, either, but his 2013 and 2014 seasons were pretty impressive, he seems to have a case over Webber, peak wise.
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Re: Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#7 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:37 pm

Decided to look at the best 4 yr stretches per 100 for penny, tim hardaway, and mullin:

PENNY 94-97

27.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 9.3 APG, 2.7 SPG, .7 BPG, 4.3 TOPG

48.7% FG, 31.5% 3PT, 77.4% FT, 57.5% TS

116/107 OFF/DEF RTG, .173 WS/48, 4.6 BPM, 18.6 VORP

TIM 91-95 (missed the 94 season)

26.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 11.9 APG, 2.4 SPG, .2 BPG, 4 TOPG

45.6% FG, 35.8% 3PT, 76.7% FT, 54.2% TS

114/112 OFF/DEF RTG, .132 WS/48, 2.7 BPM, 13.7 VORP

MULLIN 89-92

30.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.3 SPG, .8 BPG, 3.6 TOPG

52.6% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 87.7% FT, 60.5% TS

118/110 OFF/DEF RTG, .167 WS/48, 3.7 BPM, 18.2 VORP

They're all pretty impressive across the board, as i expected. I guess the argument could be made that penny may not have peaked yet when he started having injury issues. Furthers my belief that mullin is really underrated. Maybe not so much on this board, but just in general. He also has the best longevity of the 3. I’d probably look at carmelo, price, and worthy, too, but the above 3 had just been on my mind for a while.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#8 » by Quotatious » Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:13 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:Decided to look at the best 4 yr stretches per 100 for penny, tim hardaway, and mullin:

PENNY 94-97

27.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 9.3 APG, 2.7 SPG, .7 BPG, 4.3 TOPG

48.7% FG, 31.5% 3PT, 77.4% FT, 57.5% TS

116/107 OFF/DEF RTG, .173 WS/48, 4.6 BPM, 18.6 VORP

TIM 91-95 (missed the 94 season)

26.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 11.9 APG, 2.4 SPG, .2 BPG, 4 TOPG

45.6% FG, 35.8% 3PT, 76.7% FT, 54.2% TS

114/112 OFF/DEF RTG, .132 WS/48, 2.7 BPM, 13.7 VORP

MULLIN 89-92

30.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.3 SPG, .8 BPG, 3.6 TOPG

52.6% FG, 33.3% FT, 87.7% FT, 60.5% TS

118/110 OFF/DEF RTG, .167 WS/48, 3.7 BPM, 18.2 VORP

They're all pretty impressive across the board, as i expected. I guess the argument could be made that penny may not have peaked yet when he started having injury issues. Furthers my belief that mullin is really underrated. Maybe not so much on this board, but just in general. He also has the best longevity of the 3. I’d probably look at carmelo, price, and worthy, too, but the above 3 had just been on my mind for a while.

Just to add something to it - Timmy had two more All-Star seasons, which are also probably the two best seasons of his career, in '97 and '98 in Miami. His GSW seasons in the early 90s might be slightly more impressive in terms of basic boxscore averages, but his impact was likely higher in Miami (for example he had an amazing rating in '97 NPI RAPM, where he's at the top of the league among stars, just marginally behind MJ, at +5.79, and his '98 NPI score was also pretty good, +2.78, as well as +5.60 in RPI for '98). I doubt he had such high impact in Golden State. Also, his PER, WS/48, BPM and VORP are all higher in Miami.

For total career value, I'd take Tim over Penny and Mullin (Hardaway vs Mullin is close, but both are clearly ahead of Penny in terms of longevity).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#9 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Jan 14, 2015 6:25 pm

Quotatious wrote:Just to add something to it - Timmy had two more All-Star seasons, which are also probably the two best seasons of his career, in '97 and '98 in Miami. His GSW seasons in the early 90s might be slightly more impressive in terms of basic boxscore averages, but his impact was likely higher in Miami (for example he had an amazing rating in '97 NPI RAPM, where he's at the top of the league among stars, just marginally behind MJ, at +5.79, and his '98 NPI score was also pretty good, +2.78, as well as +5.60 in RPI for '98). I doubt he had such high impact in Golden State. Also, his PER, WS/48, BPM and VORP are all higher in Miami.

For total career value, I'd take Tim over Penny and Mullin (Hardaway vs Mullin is close, but both are clearly ahead of Penny in terms of longevity).


Yeah, those 2 miami seasons are definitely worth mentioning. I know that hardaway all too well as a knicks fan. More experienced, better decision maker, floor general, etc. than GSW hardaway. I was just looking at 4 year stretches specifically to try to keep it as an even comparison. I guess I could’ve done 95-98 instead, though. As for mullin vs. tim, I understand the argument for him over mullin, but I’d have to look further into it to see if I agree, heh.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:12 pm

penbeast0 wrote:The problem with Webber is that a great deal of his value is his numbers as an alpha. However, if you actually want to win a championship, he is one of the guys you least want with the ball in his hands. Add to that his poor leadership skills (particularly in Golden State and Washington) and the fact that his raw numbers tend to overstate his value and while I agree he's in discussion at his point, I see him in the same region as a Walt Bellamy:

How many players have ever had a 30ppg/19rpg season . . . just 2, Wilt and Walt . . . and Bellamy led the league in efficiency while doing it.


Couple-three things with this latter statement: 1) Pace. Pace of the Packers team Bellamy did that for was 122.9 (same can obviously be considered for some of the above guys who qualified in the categories I listed above). >30/19 is still impressive, even adjusted for pace, though, I’ll give him that. 2) The team he did it for was an abysmal 18-62. So his individual results were either not producing a team result and/or he only received such primacy because his teammates were atrocious. And that’s a big distinction between Bellamy’s accomplishment in ‘62 and those of Chris Webber, imo (more on that below).
And one minor technicality: he actually avg slightly sub-19 rebs (18.98) :oops:

wrt to the #2......

If I took all the criteria sets I mentioned previously and added in one additional criteria which is "for a team that won at least 55 games".....perhaps separates the wheat from the chaff a little more??? With this added criteria, Chris Webber would be….

*1 of only 5 players to ever average more than 20 pts, 10 reb, and 5 ast in the same season. The others are Wilt, Legend, Barkley, Baylor (all top 20 guys).

**1 of only 8 players to ever average more than 24 pts, 10 reb, 4.5 ast on >/= 54.0% ts in the same season. The others are Wilt, Kareem, Larry, Garnett, Barkley, Baylor, DRob (6 of the other 7 are top 20 guys, and all 7 are top 35 players all-time).

***1 of 5 players to ever average more than 25 pts, 11 reb, and 4 ast in the same season. The others are Wilt, Kareem, Larry, Barkley (all top 20 players).

****Players to---within the same season---average more than 10 reb, 4.5 ast, and 1.5 blk, while also qualifying for the steals leaderboard and also shoot >/= 53.0% ts…...well actually Webber doesn’t quite make the cut either. There are only three guys who have: Kareem, Garnett, and David Robinson (all top 20 players). If we lower the “1.5 blk” criteria to 1.4, though, Chris Webber becomes 1 of only 4 guys to do this for a 55+ win team.


Fair point about his poor leadership/intangible qualities, though.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:26 pm

Quotatious wrote:Career RS PER:

Webber - 20.9
Bosh - 20.6

Career PS PER:

Webber - 18.9
Bosh - 18.4

Peak RS PER:

Bosh - 25.0 (2010)
Webber - 24.7 (2001)

Career WS/48 (RS):

Bosh - 16.0
Webber - 13.2

Career WS/48 (PS):

Bosh - 14.4
Webber - 9.0

Peak scoring season:

Bosh - 24.0 PPG on 59.2% TS (+4.9% league average) in 2010, 83.2 combined PPG + TS%
Webber - 27.1 PPG on 51.6% TS (-0.2% league average) in 2001, 78.7 combined PPG + TS%


fwiw, I don't think I'd call that Webber's peak scoring year. Yes, it's the highest by your ppg + ts% measure; but speaking for myself, I'd rate '02 better: 24.5 ppg on 54.0% ts (+2.0% to league average).
For that matter, '96 started out really great: 23.7 ppg on 58.1% ts (+3.9% to league avg); but only 15-game sample.

wrt to comparisons of career PER and WS/48 numbers, when looking at those I think it's fair to consider that those include Webber's decline and post-prime years (which we haven't really seen, or are just beginning to see with Bosh).


Quotatious wrote:FWIW, Webber has much higher career BPM (3.7, Bosh's is just 1.2), and VORP (44.2 to 23.7).

Peak NPI RAPM is in Bosh's favor, too (+4.2 for Bosh in 2008, +2.9 for Webber in 2001), as well as xRAPM (+6.1 for Bosh in 2008, +4.3 for Webber in 2001).


More on RAPM (I tend to favor PI RAPM):

Yeah, Bosh rates out a little better (not a huge margin).

Webber's best 3 seasons combined (non-scaled): +9.58 (which is marginally better than Tony Parker's best three, just marginally less than that of Ben Wallace or Elton Brand, and barely less than that of Kevin Durant, just to give idea of his company in that range).

Webber's best 5 seasons: +15.17 (a little better than that of Elton Brand, and now somewhat significantly better than that of Tony Parker or Kevin Durant; still slightly less than that of Ben Wallace).


I don't necessarily disagree with you about Bosh, though. I've not traditionally held him this high, but the more I look at him, he does appear a reasonable candidate around this spot.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#12 » by Quotatious » Wed Jan 14, 2015 10:00 pm

trex_8063 wrote:fwiw, I don't think I'd call that Webber's peak scoring year. Yes, it's the highest by your ppg + ts% measure; but speaking for myself, I'd rate '02 better: 24.5 ppg on 54.0% ts (+2.0% to league average).
For that matter, '96 started out really great: 23.7 ppg on 58.1% ts (+3.9% to league avg); but only 15-game sample.

I didn't want to use '02 because he only played 54 games. I guess we can agree on 2000 - 24.5 PPG on 53.0% TS in 75 games (+0.7% league average). It's still clearly worse than Bosh's though.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#13 » by Owly » Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:40 pm

Webber has a lot of obvious things for him (passing, scoring, solid reboounding and boxscore D). And he doesn't commit too many turnovers for a high shot creation burden (for himself and others). At his apex he led a very good team. In terms of a well rounded boxscore he's probably amongst the elite (particularly where focused on counting stats, not percentages) and you could have various minimum requirement searches that show up only Webber (say Assist Pct >= 15; Total Rebound Pct >= 10.5,Usage Pct >= 20, Free Throw Pct >= 0.700, Turnover Pct <= 12.5 and Steal Pct >= 1.8 and Block Pct >= 1.4 would I think just show post a handful of post injury Webber seasons) or put Webber in elite company.

The problems are more under the surface and don't tend to be highlighted by the mass media analysis (apart from the intangiable/clutch stuff). The TS% is a large problem for a big, with the triple whammy of a low FT% and Webber fancying himself an outside shooter meaning he was both taking a lot of low percentage shots and he wasn't getting easier points at the line, which even as poor a ft shooter as he was, he was typically above 60% which yields a solid points per possession expectation. The second problem is he's worse than his boxscore on D. Normally I'd go gaga for a guy who can go above 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals in a season but (leaving aside Webber barely cleared those bars a couple of times, and in big minutes) the general consensus was he gave up post position too easily, shied away from contact and as a result was a fairly soft defender (though some will argue for him as average, or note that in some years he might have been better than his reputation). A third issue is intangiables, two teams gave up on him fairly cheaply (though GSW did at least recoup three first round picks, which they had sent out to get Webber in the first place, though the net effect of the deals together was trading Penny for Gugliotta, and even as a guy who like's Googs that means between those two trades, you lost quite a bit). Webber's Michigan issues, perjury, the drugs, the forced trade and the whole relationship with Nelly, the suggestion he lost weight just to avoid playing center and then presumably had a role in making Washington to move Rasheed Wallace by apparently refusing to play any C in Washington. Throw in how he feuded with Peja...

The way Sacramento succeeded without him is a red-flag too (and slightly undermines the value of Webber's stats being on a good team, if it looks like he wasn't doing a lot of the heavy lifting, or at least it is arguable).

I was questioning it when there were people saying he was a top 10 all time prospect on this board in part because I think some flaws were fairly obvious at the time (ft%), but there are some obvious areas where he could have done more. If he'd focused more on a his low post game (which, by demanding a double would have added value to his passing skill, and put him in a position to get more rebounds) and made a consistent comittment to D he would have been a genuine superstar first option. As it is he's a guy who I think wants to be treated as a first option, but might not be optimal in that role. From what I here, he's a bright, cultured guy off court. But he also had some dumb (and some selfish) instincts on and off court. When he came close to implying he was in Dirk, Garnett, Duncan territory in that "next 10" discussion thing ..., well let's just say it doesn't soothe any suspicions about ego.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#14 » by SinceGatlingWasARookie » Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:07 am

Quotatious wrote:
Just to add something to it - Timmy had two more All-Star seasons, which are also probably the two best seasons of his career, in '97 and '98 in Miami. His GSW seasons in the early 90s might be slightly more impressive in terms of basic boxscore averages, but his impact was likely higher in Miami (for example he had an amazing rating in '97 NPI RAPM, where he's at the top of the league among stars, just marginally behind MJ, at +5.79, and his '98 NPI score was also pretty good, +2.78, as well as +5.60 in RPI for '98). I doubt he had such high impact in Golden State. Also, his PER, WS/48, BPM and VORP are all higher in Miami.

For total career value, I'd take Tim over Penny and Mullin (Hardaway vs Mullin is close, but both are clearly ahead of Penny in terms of longevity).


Young Tim Hardaway before his first major injury really was better than he was later with the heat. I think the reason Hardaway's impact may appear better on the Heat is because the Heat had a better team that went further in the playoffs.

Young Hardaway's Warriors had a problem at center and power forward. You could see that Tyrone Hill had the makings of a good role player but Tyrone was young and raw. Ever other Warrior big was either past their prime and fading, could not stay healthy, were under sized, were too young or just were not good players.

Knocking off the Spurs in the playoffs in 1991 and winning 55 games in 1991-92 were good accomplishments and Hardaway was the most valuable player on those teams.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#15 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:34 am

SinceGatlingWasARookie wrote:
Quotatious wrote:
Just to add something to it - Timmy had two more All-Star seasons, which are also probably the two best seasons of his career, in '97 and '98 in Miami. His GSW seasons in the early 90s might be slightly more impressive in terms of basic boxscore averages, but his impact was likely higher in Miami (for example he had an amazing rating in '97 NPI RAPM, where he's at the top of the league among stars, just marginally behind MJ, at +5.79, and his '98 NPI score was also pretty good, +2.78, as well as +5.60 in RPI for '98). I doubt he had such high impact in Golden State. Also, his PER, WS/48, BPM and VORP are all higher in Miami.

For total career value, I'd take Tim over Penny and Mullin (Hardaway vs Mullin is close, but both are clearly ahead of Penny in terms of longevity).


Young Tim Hardaway before his first major injury really was better than he was later with the heat. I think the reason Hardaway's impact may appear better on the Heat is because the Heat had a better team that went further in the playoffs.

Young Hardaway's Warriors had a problem at center and power forward. You could see that Tyrone Hill had the makings of a good role player but Tyrone was young and raw. Ever other Warrior big was either past their prime and fading, could not stay healthy, were under sized, were too young or just were not good players.

Knocking off the Spurs in the playoffs in 1991 and winning 55 games in 1991-92 were good accomplishments and Hardaway was the most valuable player on those teams.


Always seemed to me that golden state gave up too early on Run TMC. As far as I remember, they traded richmond for owens because they were lacking big men. However, owens wasn't the defensive center they really needed. He was an undersized 4 who ended up playing the 3 later in his career.

I know they won 55 games the season after the trade, but I think they would've been better off keeping richmond and scrapping together big men piecemeal from elsewhere. Things didn't work out with webber, and then they blew 2 of the 3 draft picks they got for him. Maybe if either of those scenarios worked out, trading richmond wouldn't stick with me as much.
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Re: Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#16 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:20 am

penbeast0 wrote:The problem with Webber is that a great deal of his value is his numbers as an alpha. However, if you actually want to win a championship, he is one of the guys you least want with the ball in his hands. Add to that his poor leadership skills (particularly in Golden State and Washington) and the fact that his raw numbers tend to overstate his value and while I agree he's in discussion at his point, I see him in the same region as a Walt Bellamy:

How many players have ever had a 30ppg/19rpg season . . . just 2, Wilt and Walt . . . and Bellamy led the league in efficiency while doing it. His numbers are as spectacular as Webber's, his career is as long, his personality issues about as problematic . . . while I have may have Webber slightly ahead, I'd listen to arguments the other way. The same goes for Jerry Lucas who I have ahead of either Bellamy or Webber. That doesn't even include 2 time ABA MVP Mel Daniels, Yao Ming, Amare (whose accolades in an even more modern era are even better), or guys like Shawn Marion or Larry Nance who are far better complimentary players than Webber could be (he needed the ball in his hands to be effective, was more than a little sulky about sharing the primacy, and publicly refused to play center to give Rasheed Wallace and Juwan Howard minutes at PF for example).


Right, fundamentally Webber's star had faded into obscurity until Sacramento became a serious contender, at which point a narrative was put in place where he was to the Kings what Shaq was to the Lakers. The reality though is that his M.O. as a scorer is exactly the type of thing to be suspicious of: High volume, low efficiency, with other talented scorers on his team. When the team didn't seem to miss a beat after Webber's injury in '03-04, to me that really ended any serious thought that he was a superstar leaving a supporting cast, he was just a good player on a great team.
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Re: Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#17 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:21 am

Vote: Bobby Jones

As I've stated before, it's tough to know where to slot Jones because he's so hard to compare to others. I'm a big believer though that when you see a smart, insane motor guy seeming to correlate extremely well with team success, it's no coincidence.
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Re: Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#18 » by Moonbeam » Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:05 am

Glad Cousy has gotten in. My next vote is going to James Worthy. Clearly he was never the most important player on any of the Lakers' teams while Magic was around, but what an awesome piece he was nonetheless - very skilled, dangerous scorer who elevated his game when the moment called for it, not just in the playoffs, but in the regular season, too.

In head-to-head comparisons of against other leading 80s small forwards (Bird, Erving, Dantley, English, Aguirre, King, Marques Johnson, Nique), here are some summary stats taken from this spreadsheet:

131 wins, 64 losses on +1.47 SRS above expectations (ranks #1 out of 9)
Relative PPG up 1.23, opponent relative PPG down 1.25 (net -4.03 PPG vs. opponent, rank #9 of 9)
Relative RPG up 0.20, opponent relative RPG up 0.27 (only available from 1986 on, net -0.29 RPG vs. opponent)
Relative APG up 0.20, opponent relative APG down 0.38 (only available from 1986 on, net -0.24 APG vs. opponent)
TS down 0.05%, opponent TS down 0.38% (net +2.59% TS vs. opponent, rank #2 of 9)

So while Worthy tended to be outscored by big-time SFs (though he had a sizable edge in efficiency), he increased his scoring output and his opponents saw a dip in their output and efficiency, and there was no real difference in rebounds or assists. It appears that "Big Game James" had a notable bump in his production and a notable decrease in that of his opponents, even during the regular season.

Win shares aren't overly kind of Worthy in comparison to others - he's got a career WS/48 of 0.130, with about 63% coming on the offensive end. I did a comparison of offensive win shares for the 80s small forwards here, investigating whether they were perhaps poaching them from teammates, or rather providing lift. Well, in Worthy's case, his teammates seemed to generally far outperform their expectations with respect to offensive win shares. A lot of that credit should go to Magic, obviously, but Worthy's deadly scoring was a key part of their offense's success, I feel.

Image

As a playoff performer, there are few who have raised their games quite like Worthy. I think in the playoffs, he became a legitimate top 10 player in the league for several years. He produced a playoff O+ from 1985 onward of 8.07 (12.05 from 1985-89) on a Score+ of 2.072 (3.338 from 1985-89), and those are obviously big sample sizes, and those career numbers are likely to go up if we include his 1984 season.
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Re: Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#19 » by Joao Saraiva » Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:45 pm

My vote goes to Dennis Rodman.

Rebounding:
Rebound leader in the league 7 times. Peaked at 18.7 RPG and averaged 14.9 RPG or more in those 7 seasons. These numbers would be incredible even for dominant guys like Shaq or Yao, but remember, Dennis Rodman was a forward. That makes it even more incredible.

His rebounding was also great in playoff time. He recorded double digit rebounds in 7 different post seasons. He had 16 RPG for the Spurs in 94, 14.8 for the Bulls in 95 and 13.7 in 96 (his rebounding certainly was one of the reasons the 96 Bulls area in discussion for the greatest team to ever play the game). I would also like to remember Rodman grabbed 11 offensive rebounds in two diferent games in the NBA finals, both in 1996. That's a NBA record (tied with Hayes, who did it once in the finals).

Defense:
Rodman was incredible on D. He could switch in every peak&roll, defend smaller guys, good post players, big guys... he has a case for the best defensive forward in the NBA history.

Was the defensive player of the year two times - 90 and 91, on a great defensive team: the Pistons. To stand out in such a great group of defenders you really have to be amazing.

He was also 7 times in the NBA's 1st defensive team.

I will talk again about the NBA finals. In 1997 Rodman held Malone to 23.8 PPG on 48.5ts%. This has to be a win for Dennis.

In 1996 Rodman averaged 14.7 RPG in the NBA finals. He rebounded as much as Kemp and Sam Perkins combined. That has to be regarded as great impact on the boards.

I honestly feel he deserves this spot. His impact on the boards and on D is GOAT for his position. How many guys were voted before Rodman because their best part of the game was rebound and D? And if you take position into account and you value those two things, Rodman should earn your consideration here.
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Re: Re: RealGM Top 100 List #72 

Post#20 » by Owly » Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:14 pm

Gut, best player at postion per decade available

Neil Johnston
Harry Gallatin/Vern Mikkelsen
Jim Pollard/Ernie Vandeweghe
Bill Sharman
Dick McGuire

Frank Ramsey also warrants a mention with his playoff performances. If he's an SF, given he's later 50s, and neither of the others combine numbers and reputation he's probably the best SF.

Walt Bellamy
Bailey Howell
Cliff Hagan (Chet Walker?)
Hal Greer
Lenny Wilkens

Dan Issel? Bill Walton?
Spencer Haywood
Bobby Jones
Dave Bing
Calvin Murphy?

Jack Sikma
Larry Nance
Marques Johnson
World B Free?
Maurice Cheeks / Gus Williams

Vlade Divac (Daugherty?)
Horace Grant/Shawn Kemp/ Webber
Detlef Schrempf/Chris Mullin
Jeff Hornacek/Joe Dumars/Mitch Richmond
Tim Hardaway/Terry Porter/Rod Strickland/Mark Price/Terrell Brandon/Mark Jackson/Mookie Blaylock/Penny Hardaway

Ming
Brand/Bosh
Marion
Eddie Jones?
Tony Parker


Vote Sharman

Clearcut best shooter at guard in his era, see for instance :

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... =ws_per_48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ft_pct

Highly regarded defender, smart basketball mind, excellent conditioning, tough. When he's all that plus the clear cut best at his position by the boxscore that's an attractive combination.

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