RealGM Top 100 List #86
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RealGM Top 100 List #86
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RealGM Top 100 List #86
PG: Tim Hardaway, Mark Price, and maybe Mookie Blaylock are the players I'm looking at . . . should mention Penny Hardaway though he never impressed me as much as he did the TV guys of his day.
Forwards: Marques Johnson and Chris Mullin would be the main scorers; maybe Carmelo Anthony though between his season of discontent in Denver and his playoff numbers, I'd have to be persuaded. Billy Cunningham, Bob Dandridge, Chet Walker, and Mitch Richmond also come to mind.
Bigs: Mel Daniels has 2 MVPs and 3 rings, albeit in a weaker league; similarly Neil Johnston has the best raw numbers in an even weaker league than Daniels. Amare Stoudamire and Jerry Lucas bring great numbers but defensive questions (Johnston is defensively questionable too); Bill Walton has the highest peak (though that's it for true career value -- 1 year then failed to stay healthy to the playoffs the next and 1 year as a reserve role player). Maybe Yao Ming should get a mention too.
There are a lot of other good players but as we are into the last quarter, that's my short list.
Chris Mullin v. Marques Johnson v. Carmelo Anthony; Mel Daniels v. Neil Johnston v. Yao Ming; Tim Hardaway v. Mark Price v. Mookie Blaylock; Jerry Lucas v. Billy Cunningham or Cunningham v. Mitch Richond; those are the other comps I am looking at and would love feedback on.
By the boxscore numbers I go for Jerry Lucas or Chris Mullin. By the eye test I go for Mel Daniels or Marques Johnson.
VOTE Mel Daniels. Not as impressive statistically as Marques Johnson (or Jerry Lucas/Chris Webber) but has a strong defensive impact (more of a Moses Malone/Wes Unseld type as he wasn't a great shotblocker), excellent rebounding, good if not great offense, and came across similarly to Alonzo Mourning when you watched him as just a pure warrior type.
Forwards: Marques Johnson and Chris Mullin would be the main scorers; maybe Carmelo Anthony though between his season of discontent in Denver and his playoff numbers, I'd have to be persuaded. Billy Cunningham, Bob Dandridge, Chet Walker, and Mitch Richmond also come to mind.
Bigs: Mel Daniels has 2 MVPs and 3 rings, albeit in a weaker league; similarly Neil Johnston has the best raw numbers in an even weaker league than Daniels. Amare Stoudamire and Jerry Lucas bring great numbers but defensive questions (Johnston is defensively questionable too); Bill Walton has the highest peak (though that's it for true career value -- 1 year then failed to stay healthy to the playoffs the next and 1 year as a reserve role player). Maybe Yao Ming should get a mention too.
There are a lot of other good players but as we are into the last quarter, that's my short list.
Chris Mullin v. Marques Johnson v. Carmelo Anthony; Mel Daniels v. Neil Johnston v. Yao Ming; Tim Hardaway v. Mark Price v. Mookie Blaylock; Jerry Lucas v. Billy Cunningham or Cunningham v. Mitch Richond; those are the other comps I am looking at and would love feedback on.
By the boxscore numbers I go for Jerry Lucas or Chris Mullin. By the eye test I go for Mel Daniels or Marques Johnson.
VOTE Mel Daniels. Not as impressive statistically as Marques Johnson (or Jerry Lucas/Chris Webber) but has a strong defensive impact (more of a Moses Malone/Wes Unseld type as he wasn't a great shotblocker), excellent rebounding, good if not great offense, and came across similarly to Alonzo Mourning when you watched him as just a pure warrior type.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
Obviously Webber played in a stronger league and has a strong longevity edge. Equally obvious is Daniel's was far more respected as a dominant force and team leader as shown by his two MVP awards.
Scoring: Webber career 28.3 pp100pos on .513ts%; Daniels career 21.4 pp100po on .507ts% (in a faster paced league that was less efficient). Clear advantage Webber.
Defense: Daniels was a physical force in the post and an intimidating bruiser on opponents driving the lane; Webber was not a good post defender but was much quicker and able to guard away from the basket more easily. Daniels's team defenses tended to be better than Webber's but that's a very noisy stat.
Rebounding: Daniels pulls down 17.3 reb100poss, Webber only 13.4 despite Daniels playing next to superior rebounders (Neto, McGinnis, Hillman v. Charles Jones, Muresan, Divac). Clear advantage Daniels.
Playmaking: Webber was a terrific passer (5.8/100poss); Daniels average at best (2.8/100poss). Clear advantage Webber.
Intangibles: Ignoring accolades, Daniels was a coach's favorite and icon in Indiana even today. Webber whined his way out of Golden State and Washington before finding success in Sacramento and had many off court issues as well. Webber also is probably the single player in NBA history most known for blowing it mentally in the clutch, first in college then in the pros. Clear advantage Daniels.
Hard to find two more contrasting big men. If you believe that a relatively inefficient but high scoring, great passing, average defensive big man is more valuable than an average efficiency for his day, great rebounding, physical defender or you feel that early ABA greats (of whom Daniels, Hawkins, and Haywood were the 3 main stars) wouldn't translate to other eras, then you support Webber. If you value intangibles and a winning (3 ABA titles in his prime) and feel that physical intimidating bigs are a key to success then you can support Mel Daniels.
You know which side I am on.
Scoring: Webber career 28.3 pp100pos on .513ts%; Daniels career 21.4 pp100po on .507ts% (in a faster paced league that was less efficient). Clear advantage Webber.
Defense: Daniels was a physical force in the post and an intimidating bruiser on opponents driving the lane; Webber was not a good post defender but was much quicker and able to guard away from the basket more easily. Daniels's team defenses tended to be better than Webber's but that's a very noisy stat.
Rebounding: Daniels pulls down 17.3 reb100poss, Webber only 13.4 despite Daniels playing next to superior rebounders (Neto, McGinnis, Hillman v. Charles Jones, Muresan, Divac). Clear advantage Daniels.
Playmaking: Webber was a terrific passer (5.8/100poss); Daniels average at best (2.8/100poss). Clear advantage Webber.
Intangibles: Ignoring accolades, Daniels was a coach's favorite and icon in Indiana even today. Webber whined his way out of Golden State and Washington before finding success in Sacramento and had many off court issues as well. Webber also is probably the single player in NBA history most known for blowing it mentally in the clutch, first in college then in the pros. Clear advantage Daniels.
Hard to find two more contrasting big men. If you believe that a relatively inefficient but high scoring, great passing, average defensive big man is more valuable than an average efficiency for his day, great rebounding, physical defender or you feel that early ABA greats (of whom Daniels, Hawkins, and Haywood were the 3 main stars) wouldn't translate to other eras, then you support Webber. If you value intangibles and a winning (3 ABA titles in his prime) and feel that physical intimidating bigs are a key to success then you can support Mel Daniels.
You know which side I am on.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
- ronnymac2
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
Vote: Chris Webber
Still not confident voting for Webber, but nobody else stands out. I do think Webber had an LMA-type effect on offense with solid defense. Probably the most creative passer at PF ever. 20/10 threat who could post. He did play well in the 2002 playoffs.
Still not confident voting for Webber, but nobody else stands out. I do think Webber had an LMA-type effect on offense with solid defense. Probably the most creative passer at PF ever. 20/10 threat who could post. He did play well in the 2002 playoffs.
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It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
sigh.......(copied from last).....I can't wait to see who will be the next chap to beat Webber in a run-off.
Chris Webber is.......
*1 of only 5 players to ever average more than 20 pts, 10 reb, and 5 ast in the same season for a team that won 55+ games. The others are Wilt, Legend, Barkley, Baylor (3 of the other 4 are top 20 all-time players, the other is a top 35 guy--->and he's obviously only qualifying due to pace-inflated numbers).
**1 of only 8 players to ever average more than 24 pts, 10 reb, 4.5 ast on >/= 54.0% ts in the same season, for a team that won 55+ games. The others are Wilt, Kareem, Larry, Garnett, Barkley, Baylor, DRob (6 of the other 7 are top 20 guys, the other top 35).
***1 of 5 players to ever average more than 25 pts, 11 reb, and 4 ast in the same season for a team that won 55+ games. The others are Wilt, Kareem, Larry, Barkley (all top 20 players).
****1 of only 4 players to---within the same season---A) average >10 reb, B) >4.5 ast, C) >1.4 blk, while D) also qualifying for the steals leaderboard and E) also shooting >/= 53.0% ts.....all for a team that won 55+ games. The others are Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin Garnett, and David Robinson (all consensus top 20 guys).
Webber is not an ideal #1, and I don't know how willingly he'd take on a #2 role. But he's a very versatile offensive skill-set, and based on the above I would say one could certainly do worse for a #1 option.
And where Webber's defense is concerned, I feel his short-comings (such as they were) get overstated on this forum. To hear many talk about it, it seems like he's getting pigeon-holed defensively with guys like David Lee, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Carlos Boozer......which I don't think is at all fair. Here are his dRAPM's by year (PI, except where indicated by *):
'97*: +1.62
'98: +2.04
'99: +2.00
'00: +0.23
'01*: +2.2
'02: +1.1
'03: +0.5
'04*: +0.9
'05*: -0.4
Really, that's pretty overwhelmingly positive.
His combined RAPM data looks better than that of Pau Gasol (voted in at #53), and is pretty similar in quality to the likes of Tony Parker (#81), and Kevin Durant (#36).
Additionally, I wanted to look into a statement saying that the Kings didn't miss a beat when Webber was injured. So here's what I found....
Vote: Chris Webber.
Chris Webber is.......
*1 of only 5 players to ever average more than 20 pts, 10 reb, and 5 ast in the same season for a team that won 55+ games. The others are Wilt, Legend, Barkley, Baylor (3 of the other 4 are top 20 all-time players, the other is a top 35 guy--->and he's obviously only qualifying due to pace-inflated numbers).
**1 of only 8 players to ever average more than 24 pts, 10 reb, 4.5 ast on >/= 54.0% ts in the same season, for a team that won 55+ games. The others are Wilt, Kareem, Larry, Garnett, Barkley, Baylor, DRob (6 of the other 7 are top 20 guys, the other top 35).
***1 of 5 players to ever average more than 25 pts, 11 reb, and 4 ast in the same season for a team that won 55+ games. The others are Wilt, Kareem, Larry, Barkley (all top 20 players).
****1 of only 4 players to---within the same season---A) average >10 reb, B) >4.5 ast, C) >1.4 blk, while D) also qualifying for the steals leaderboard and E) also shooting >/= 53.0% ts.....all for a team that won 55+ games. The others are Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin Garnett, and David Robinson (all consensus top 20 guys).
Webber is not an ideal #1, and I don't know how willingly he'd take on a #2 role. But he's a very versatile offensive skill-set, and based on the above I would say one could certainly do worse for a #1 option.
And where Webber's defense is concerned, I feel his short-comings (such as they were) get overstated on this forum. To hear many talk about it, it seems like he's getting pigeon-holed defensively with guys like David Lee, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Carlos Boozer......which I don't think is at all fair. Here are his dRAPM's by year (PI, except where indicated by *):
'97*: +1.62
'98: +2.04
'99: +2.00
'00: +0.23
'01*: +2.2
'02: +1.1
'03: +0.5
'04*: +0.9
'05*: -0.4
Really, that's pretty overwhelmingly positive.
His combined RAPM data looks better than that of Pau Gasol (voted in at #53), and is pretty similar in quality to the likes of Tony Parker (#81), and Kevin Durant (#36).
Additionally, I wanted to look into a statement saying that the Kings didn't miss a beat when Webber was injured. So here's what I found....
Spoiler:
Vote: Chris Webber.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
Vote for #86 - Carmelo Anthony
- 12 year career
- 6x all NBA (2 2nd, 4 3rd)
- 1 top 3 and 1 top 10 MVP finish
- 1x scoring champ
REG SEASON 06-14
26.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, .5 BPG, 46.1% FG, 35.3% 3PT, 81.7% FT, 55.4% TS, .149 WS/48, 110 ORTG, 10.9% TO
PLAYOFFS 06-13
27 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, .4 BPG, 42.1% FG, 32.9% 3PT, 82.8% FT, 51.9% TS, .124 WS/48, 107 ORTG, 9.9% TO
Peak carmelo developed into one of the best offensive players in the league. The “iso melo” stigma really became an outdated narrative as you saw all he really needed was a decent PG rotation to keep the ball moving (a little different, but billups certainly got the best out of him in denver). He became one of the better off the ball players in 12-13, actually shooting more efficiently and on higher volume than durant in catch and shoot situations. His transition to a great 3 pt shooter also opened up his game, and he stepped into transition 3s about as well as anyone in the league.
He’s obviously known for his great post up and face up game, but not acknowledged as much for being a great offensive rebounder for his position. He has a deceptively quick 2nd jump and soft touch around the rim for put backs. He also possesses a unique rolling spin move to the hoop i’m not sure anyone else in the league has. The one thing he’s really average at is finishing at the rim, and i’d say that partially has to do with him not being able to take advantage of the way the game is called these days. He isn’t a freak show athlete like lebron, and he doesn’t have those long strides like durant / harden where they know the angles and draw fouls as easily as they do.
Carmelo had the full repertoire going with his career high 62 pts against charlotte last season (they ranked 5th in DRTG):
I then look at someone like dominique, who was voted in at #61, and I think a 20+ spot gap between the two is pushing it. Take a look at how they compare over their first 11 seasons (dominique actually comes off as worse if you look at his whole career):
http://bkref.com/tiny/KSWoH
They’re very comparable in most areas, and carmelo actually comes out as the better postseason performer, something wilkins was well criticized for, but still managed to get voted in much earlier.
Looking at carmelo vs. webber, it’s definitely close. Here’s how they performed over their first 11 seasons:
http://bkref.com/tiny/rlHmC
Carmelo has average durability over the course of his career, but has never suffered significant injuries that have kept him out for long periods of a season. Webber missed 28 games in 95, 67 games in 96, 28 games in 02, and 59 games in 04. This was all by the time he hit 30 years old.
And yes, carmelo has lingering knee issues this year, but it’s a lost season, and i’d at least apply some some context to the situation. If he were in a playoff push, maybe this would’ve been dealt with earlier, or he would’ve been playing through it it anyway. I expect him to come back healthy next season.
Compound webber’s lack of durability with his uneven playoff resume, and this is where I see carmelo separating himself from webber. I don’t think his ability as an above average passing big makes up for it. You could give him an edge defensively as a mobile big, but again, his performance on that end was uneven as well.
Just getting hypothetical for a minute, but looking at the 02 kings, this would actually be a great fit for carmelo in the league we’ve come to know over the last few seasons.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2002.html
While you’d lose the traditional PF in webber, caremlo thrived at the 4 in 2013, and having above average size SFs in peja and turkoglu would help on that front. I think the ball movement centric offense they ran would bring out the best in carmelo, and it was a more talented team than what he had in 2013.
There always seemed to be this all or nothing evaluation of carmelo where he’d be expected to be as good as lebron / durant (which he obviously isn’t), or he’s barely a top 20 player in the league. You may want to fault him for forcing his way to NY, but let’s not pretend like many players voted in already haven’t done the same.
ronnymac brings up a good point about low turnovers being a plus for high usage players. Below are are 20+ PPG scorers in the playoffs (excluding centers) sorted by TO% (best to worst):
http://bkref.com/tiny/HO11E
Of course there are guys at the “bottom” who were very successful, but the lower TO% can help offset some of the decrease in efficiency we see with carmelo in the playoffs. 25 of the 34 players on this list have already been voted in, and only 1 of those players (gus williams) has played in more playoff games then carmelo, so I think he has a good case for this spot.
As an aside, I think it’s pretty interesting to see guys like jordan and iverson with such low TO%s in the playoffs. Also would’ve never known ben gordon was a 20 PPG scorer in the playoffs for his career
Then we get to the clutch play. 82games.com looked at shot data from 04-09 in the reg season + 04-08 in the post season. Carmelo was 6th in the league in game winners, but #1 in the league by far in FG% on game winners at 48.1%:
http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm
By 2011, he already had enough game winners to choose from to create a top 10 for his career:
For clutch data from 2000-2012, carmelo was 7th in the league in FG%, and 50% of his FGs were assisted, which is interesting to note for being criticized for holding the ball too long.
I don’t think you (not you personally) can fall on the criticism of him not being able to fit with better players. International play doesn’t equal the NBA, but he’s always shined in that role. If he really had a problem with making that adjustment, he wouldn’t have been a key player on the last 2 olympic teams. And yes, few players get to play with say lebron or chris paul, but there’s little doubt in my mind that carmelo would thrive in a situation like that.
http://bit.ly/1wnySdJ
[I’d obviously prefer eFG% or TS% for these figures, but they weren’t available here]
I’m aware that he hasn’t been quite as clutch over the last few seasons, but i attribute some of that to fatigue (he led the league in MPG last season) and the makeup of his teams. He’s still had his fair share of clutch moments since coming to NY, and hit multiple game winners during his first season here. He did give us this gem in 2012, as well:
Carmelo gets a decent amount of flack for his playoff resume, and I think it’s a little overstated, so I’d like to provide some context for each season. It also seems to get pushed aside that making the playoffs 10 seasons in a row is no big deal or something, especially when the majority of them came out west. Below is carmelo’s team SRS rank and the opponent’s SRS rank that he lost to in the playoffs.
CARMELO SRS RANK / OPPONENT SRS RANK
04 - 11th / 2nd
05 - 10th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
06 - 15th / 9th
07 - 9th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
08 - 11th / 2nd
09 - 8th / 3rd (eventual NBA champion lakers)
10 - 8th / 3rd
11 - 15th / 6th
12 - 11th / 4th (eventual NBA champion heat)
13 - 7th / 9th
Aside from 2013, the team he lost to has always been favored in SRS, with 4 of the 10 series losses coming to the eventual NBA champs. To me, this doesn’t reflect a player who’s come up short when he’s been expected to go farther in the playoffs. You can make the argument that if he was a better player, he may have been favored in more series, but that only goes so far. It’s clear that he hasn’t been as fortunate as some other players as far as who he’s played with. Some more details on his recent playoff loses:
09 - This run to the WCF almost gets glossed over at times. Nuggets were 2 wins away from the finals, losing to the eventual NBA champion lakers, who were just flat out the better team. He had some great performances during that run.
11 - Billups gets hurt in game 1 against boston (out for rest of series), then amare gets hurt in game 2 only playing 17 min. First 2 games are decided by 2 and 3 points respectively. Tony douglas forced to play PG for the rest of the series, basically putting it out of reach.
12 - Disastrous # of injuries. Tyson chandler finishes off a DPOY season, and of course gets the flu as soon as the playoffs start. Lin doesn’t come back for the playoffs, shumpert and douglas only play 1 game a piece, baron davis eventually goes down, and the knicks are only left with 33 yr old mike bibby to run the point, who already had 1 foot in retirement.
13 - First time since carmelo came to the knicks that they really looked like a team who could make a run to the finals. PG play was always an issue prior to this season, and felton came up big in the 1st round against boston. Ball movement flowing with kidd and prigioni as well. Then in the 2nd round against indiana, chandler again doesn’t look himself, which would later be revealed that he had an “undisclosed illness” during the series. I think there’s a good chance they beat the pacers with a healthy chandler, and who knows what happens from there.
Here are the best players carmelo’s played with over the course of his career: andre miller (first few seasons of carmelo's career), kenyon martin (often injured), post 30s iverson, camby (often injured), JR smith, nene (often injured), billups, afflalo, amare (often injured), tyson chandler (often injured), kidd in his last season and an in shape felton. Outside of iverson, that’s a collection of good players, but nothing that screams "consistent second option", or even "consistent first option" if you want to push carmelo down a notch. Fit is clearly important, too, and while iverson and carmelo never had "problems" with each other, it wasn't working. It’s not an accident that carmelo’s best seasons came with billups running the show in 09 and a knicks team in 2013 which focused heavily on keeping the ball moving and quick decision making.
With regards to how carmelo’s career is perceived, I always go back to pierce before garnett and allen came along. Even if we agree that pierce is the better player, he had only been to the conf finals once before that trade, and i’m not sure how his career progresses without those trades being made. Does he stick with it in boston and not make anymore playoff runs? Does he eventually go to another team? I just wonder how carmelo would be looked at had he been fortunate enough to play with teammates of that caliber.
I don’t think you can fall on the criticism of him not being able to fit with better players. International play doesn’t equal the NBA, but he’s always shined in that role. If he really had a problem with making that adjustment, he wouldn’t have been a key player on the last 2 olympic teams. And yes, few players get to play with say lebron or chris paul, but there’s little doubt in my mind that carmelo would thrive in a situation like that.
- 12 year career
- 6x all NBA (2 2nd, 4 3rd)
- 1 top 3 and 1 top 10 MVP finish
- 1x scoring champ
REG SEASON 06-14
26.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, .5 BPG, 46.1% FG, 35.3% 3PT, 81.7% FT, 55.4% TS, .149 WS/48, 110 ORTG, 10.9% TO
PLAYOFFS 06-13
27 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, .4 BPG, 42.1% FG, 32.9% 3PT, 82.8% FT, 51.9% TS, .124 WS/48, 107 ORTG, 9.9% TO
Peak carmelo developed into one of the best offensive players in the league. The “iso melo” stigma really became an outdated narrative as you saw all he really needed was a decent PG rotation to keep the ball moving (a little different, but billups certainly got the best out of him in denver). He became one of the better off the ball players in 12-13, actually shooting more efficiently and on higher volume than durant in catch and shoot situations. His transition to a great 3 pt shooter also opened up his game, and he stepped into transition 3s about as well as anyone in the league.
He’s obviously known for his great post up and face up game, but not acknowledged as much for being a great offensive rebounder for his position. He has a deceptively quick 2nd jump and soft touch around the rim for put backs. He also possesses a unique rolling spin move to the hoop i’m not sure anyone else in the league has. The one thing he’s really average at is finishing at the rim, and i’d say that partially has to do with him not being able to take advantage of the way the game is called these days. He isn’t a freak show athlete like lebron, and he doesn’t have those long strides like durant / harden where they know the angles and draw fouls as easily as they do.
Carmelo had the full repertoire going with his career high 62 pts against charlotte last season (they ranked 5th in DRTG):
Spoiler:
I then look at someone like dominique, who was voted in at #61, and I think a 20+ spot gap between the two is pushing it. Take a look at how they compare over their first 11 seasons (dominique actually comes off as worse if you look at his whole career):
http://bkref.com/tiny/KSWoH
They’re very comparable in most areas, and carmelo actually comes out as the better postseason performer, something wilkins was well criticized for, but still managed to get voted in much earlier.
Looking at carmelo vs. webber, it’s definitely close. Here’s how they performed over their first 11 seasons:
http://bkref.com/tiny/rlHmC
Carmelo has average durability over the course of his career, but has never suffered significant injuries that have kept him out for long periods of a season. Webber missed 28 games in 95, 67 games in 96, 28 games in 02, and 59 games in 04. This was all by the time he hit 30 years old.
And yes, carmelo has lingering knee issues this year, but it’s a lost season, and i’d at least apply some some context to the situation. If he were in a playoff push, maybe this would’ve been dealt with earlier, or he would’ve been playing through it it anyway. I expect him to come back healthy next season.
Compound webber’s lack of durability with his uneven playoff resume, and this is where I see carmelo separating himself from webber. I don’t think his ability as an above average passing big makes up for it. You could give him an edge defensively as a mobile big, but again, his performance on that end was uneven as well.
Just getting hypothetical for a minute, but looking at the 02 kings, this would actually be a great fit for carmelo in the league we’ve come to know over the last few seasons.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2002.html
While you’d lose the traditional PF in webber, caremlo thrived at the 4 in 2013, and having above average size SFs in peja and turkoglu would help on that front. I think the ball movement centric offense they ran would bring out the best in carmelo, and it was a more talented team than what he had in 2013.
There always seemed to be this all or nothing evaluation of carmelo where he’d be expected to be as good as lebron / durant (which he obviously isn’t), or he’s barely a top 20 player in the league. You may want to fault him for forcing his way to NY, but let’s not pretend like many players voted in already haven’t done the same.
ronnymac brings up a good point about low turnovers being a plus for high usage players. Below are are 20+ PPG scorers in the playoffs (excluding centers) sorted by TO% (best to worst):
http://bkref.com/tiny/HO11E
Of course there are guys at the “bottom” who were very successful, but the lower TO% can help offset some of the decrease in efficiency we see with carmelo in the playoffs. 25 of the 34 players on this list have already been voted in, and only 1 of those players (gus williams) has played in more playoff games then carmelo, so I think he has a good case for this spot.
As an aside, I think it’s pretty interesting to see guys like jordan and iverson with such low TO%s in the playoffs. Also would’ve never known ben gordon was a 20 PPG scorer in the playoffs for his career
Then we get to the clutch play. 82games.com looked at shot data from 04-09 in the reg season + 04-08 in the post season. Carmelo was 6th in the league in game winners, but #1 in the league by far in FG% on game winners at 48.1%:
http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm
By 2011, he already had enough game winners to choose from to create a top 10 for his career:
Spoiler:
For clutch data from 2000-2012, carmelo was 7th in the league in FG%, and 50% of his FGs were assisted, which is interesting to note for being criticized for holding the ball too long.
I don’t think you (not you personally) can fall on the criticism of him not being able to fit with better players. International play doesn’t equal the NBA, but he’s always shined in that role. If he really had a problem with making that adjustment, he wouldn’t have been a key player on the last 2 olympic teams. And yes, few players get to play with say lebron or chris paul, but there’s little doubt in my mind that carmelo would thrive in a situation like that.
http://bit.ly/1wnySdJ
[I’d obviously prefer eFG% or TS% for these figures, but they weren’t available here]
I’m aware that he hasn’t been quite as clutch over the last few seasons, but i attribute some of that to fatigue (he led the league in MPG last season) and the makeup of his teams. He’s still had his fair share of clutch moments since coming to NY, and hit multiple game winners during his first season here. He did give us this gem in 2012, as well:
Spoiler:
Carmelo gets a decent amount of flack for his playoff resume, and I think it’s a little overstated, so I’d like to provide some context for each season. It also seems to get pushed aside that making the playoffs 10 seasons in a row is no big deal or something, especially when the majority of them came out west. Below is carmelo’s team SRS rank and the opponent’s SRS rank that he lost to in the playoffs.
CARMELO SRS RANK / OPPONENT SRS RANK
04 - 11th / 2nd
05 - 10th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
06 - 15th / 9th
07 - 9th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
08 - 11th / 2nd
09 - 8th / 3rd (eventual NBA champion lakers)
10 - 8th / 3rd
11 - 15th / 6th
12 - 11th / 4th (eventual NBA champion heat)
13 - 7th / 9th
Aside from 2013, the team he lost to has always been favored in SRS, with 4 of the 10 series losses coming to the eventual NBA champs. To me, this doesn’t reflect a player who’s come up short when he’s been expected to go farther in the playoffs. You can make the argument that if he was a better player, he may have been favored in more series, but that only goes so far. It’s clear that he hasn’t been as fortunate as some other players as far as who he’s played with. Some more details on his recent playoff loses:
09 - This run to the WCF almost gets glossed over at times. Nuggets were 2 wins away from the finals, losing to the eventual NBA champion lakers, who were just flat out the better team. He had some great performances during that run.
11 - Billups gets hurt in game 1 against boston (out for rest of series), then amare gets hurt in game 2 only playing 17 min. First 2 games are decided by 2 and 3 points respectively. Tony douglas forced to play PG for the rest of the series, basically putting it out of reach.
12 - Disastrous # of injuries. Tyson chandler finishes off a DPOY season, and of course gets the flu as soon as the playoffs start. Lin doesn’t come back for the playoffs, shumpert and douglas only play 1 game a piece, baron davis eventually goes down, and the knicks are only left with 33 yr old mike bibby to run the point, who already had 1 foot in retirement.
13 - First time since carmelo came to the knicks that they really looked like a team who could make a run to the finals. PG play was always an issue prior to this season, and felton came up big in the 1st round against boston. Ball movement flowing with kidd and prigioni as well. Then in the 2nd round against indiana, chandler again doesn’t look himself, which would later be revealed that he had an “undisclosed illness” during the series. I think there’s a good chance they beat the pacers with a healthy chandler, and who knows what happens from there.
Here are the best players carmelo’s played with over the course of his career: andre miller (first few seasons of carmelo's career), kenyon martin (often injured), post 30s iverson, camby (often injured), JR smith, nene (often injured), billups, afflalo, amare (often injured), tyson chandler (often injured), kidd in his last season and an in shape felton. Outside of iverson, that’s a collection of good players, but nothing that screams "consistent second option", or even "consistent first option" if you want to push carmelo down a notch. Fit is clearly important, too, and while iverson and carmelo never had "problems" with each other, it wasn't working. It’s not an accident that carmelo’s best seasons came with billups running the show in 09 and a knicks team in 2013 which focused heavily on keeping the ball moving and quick decision making.
With regards to how carmelo’s career is perceived, I always go back to pierce before garnett and allen came along. Even if we agree that pierce is the better player, he had only been to the conf finals once before that trade, and i’m not sure how his career progresses without those trades being made. Does he stick with it in boston and not make anymore playoff runs? Does he eventually go to another team? I just wonder how carmelo would be looked at had he been fortunate enough to play with teammates of that caliber.
I don’t think you can fall on the criticism of him not being able to fit with better players. International play doesn’t equal the NBA, but he’s always shined in that role. If he really had a problem with making that adjustment, he wouldn’t have been a key player on the last 2 olympic teams. And yes, few players get to play with say lebron or chris paul, but there’s little doubt in my mind that carmelo would thrive in a situation like that.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
Nice to see Grant getting in.
I'll go to back to Bosh as my vote. Surprised to see so many people taking Webber over Bosh (to be honest, I almost feel sorry for the Webber voters at this point - he's already lost so many run-offs...but I still believe that Bosh is more deserving).
Bosh proved that he could be a solid #1 option, carry a weak team to the playoffs (as he did twice in Toronto), put up very nice numbers (also finished twice in the top 10 in RAPM, in 2008 and 2010, and he's ranked 32nd on the 97-14 list, so his impact was definitely high, and seems to "back up" his boxscore numbers).
The thing I like about Bosh is that he accepted a limited role on a team with other stars, and played pretty good defense as the third best player on the Heat. It shows that he's a portable and versatile player.
Pretty nice longevity - quietly, he's already made 10 All-Star appearances (including this year), and he's already logged over 30000 regular season minutes (plus over 3000 in the playoffs).
Why Bosh over Webber? Much more efficient scorer, very comparable rebounder, usually a better defender, more portable, better longevity and durability (at least as a star). I mentioned Webber, because I feel like he's going to be the most popular choice in this thread.
I want to support of the 50s guys soon (Hagan or Sharman), and honestly, I think the gap between English/Wilkins and Melo is too big, but I'd also take Bosh over Melo, so I can't really vote for Anthony before Bosh gets in. The gap between Pau Gasol (#53 on the list) and Bosh is definitely too big for my liking, too.
I'll go to back to Bosh as my vote. Surprised to see so many people taking Webber over Bosh (to be honest, I almost feel sorry for the Webber voters at this point - he's already lost so many run-offs...but I still believe that Bosh is more deserving).
Bosh proved that he could be a solid #1 option, carry a weak team to the playoffs (as he did twice in Toronto), put up very nice numbers (also finished twice in the top 10 in RAPM, in 2008 and 2010, and he's ranked 32nd on the 97-14 list, so his impact was definitely high, and seems to "back up" his boxscore numbers).
The thing I like about Bosh is that he accepted a limited role on a team with other stars, and played pretty good defense as the third best player on the Heat. It shows that he's a portable and versatile player.
Pretty nice longevity - quietly, he's already made 10 All-Star appearances (including this year), and he's already logged over 30000 regular season minutes (plus over 3000 in the playoffs).
Why Bosh over Webber? Much more efficient scorer, very comparable rebounder, usually a better defender, more portable, better longevity and durability (at least as a star). I mentioned Webber, because I feel like he's going to be the most popular choice in this thread.
I want to support of the 50s guys soon (Hagan or Sharman), and honestly, I think the gap between English/Wilkins and Melo is too big, but I'd also take Bosh over Melo, so I can't really vote for Anthony before Bosh gets in. The gap between Pau Gasol (#53 on the list) and Bosh is definitely too big for my liking, too.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
Have to admit, penbeast, I'm curious why you're including Amare on your list and not Yao. It's not like Amare was that much healthier, he lasts about 1.5 seasons longer than Yao, and Yao was obviously the better defender. I'm not so much propping Yao to be fair as more wondering why the heck is Amare on your list at all - fairly short career with big injury problems and his total lack of defense was pretty much the big thing that held the Nash Suns back.
If I had a vote, I think I would give it to either Bosh or Mel Daniels here. Those two seem to be the best defenders out of the available candidates, I like Daniels for being the best player in a basketball league for multiple years ( though there are caveats about that), and I like Bosh for being willing to accept playing the inferior role, playing defense in a unique way, and of course he has good offensive capabilities. Those two should get in before Webber.
If I had a vote, I think I would give it to either Bosh or Mel Daniels here. Those two seem to be the best defenders out of the available candidates, I like Daniels for being the best player in a basketball league for multiple years ( though there are caveats about that), and I like Bosh for being willing to accept playing the inferior role, playing defense in a unique way, and of course he has good offensive capabilities. Those two should get in before Webber.
But do you know what they call a fool, who's full of himself and jumps into the path of death because it's cool?
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
You are right, I'd rather have Yao, problems and all too. Was just thinking of all-O, no-D types at the time. Nice to have someone else think Daniels should get in before Webber, lol.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
I'm not a voter, but how in the hell did Horace Grant get in before Chris Webber? We're talking a guy who's been in the All-NBA first team, 4th in MVP voting once, 4 more all-star appearances, near superstar level in his Kings day, so what does Grant have over Webber, and please don't tell me championships.
NickAnderson wrote:
How old are you, just curious.
by gomeziee on 21 Jul 2013 00:53
im 20, and i did grow up watching MJ play in the 90's.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
dautjazz wrote:I'm not a voter, but how in the hell did Horace Grant get in before Chris Webber? We're talking a guy who's been in the All-NBA first team, 4th in MVP voting once, 4 more all-star appearances, near superstar level in his Kings day, so what does Grant have over Webber, and please don't tell me championships.
Read the last 5 threads.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
penbeast0 wrote:dautjazz wrote:I'm not a voter, but how in the hell did Horace Grant get in before Chris Webber? We're talking a guy who's been in the All-NBA first team, 4th in MVP voting once, 4 more all-star appearances, near superstar level in his Kings day, so what does Grant have over Webber, and please don't tell me championships.
Read the last 5 threads.
I could, but there is really nothing that convince me that Grant is a top 90 player.
NickAnderson wrote:
How old are you, just curious.
by gomeziee on 21 Jul 2013 00:53
im 20, and i did grow up watching MJ play in the 90's.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
And I'm in the Webber camp.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
I’ve talked about this in my original post, but wanted to relate it specifically to bosh. I think carmelo would’ve fit in about as well as bosh had he come together with lebron and wade in 2010. The only difference would be focusing a little more on signing centers to bolster the interior D (which was lacking anyway in the 2013 + 2014 finals). Again, I don’t see carmelo having an issue with playing more off the ball and spreading the floor at the 4 instead of running the offense through him. He's also shown chemistry specifically with lebron over the years, and their friendship certainly wouldn't hurt, either.
I wouldn’t put that much stock into the all star appearances (something i’ve been consistent with the entire project) as bosh was making them in a weak eastern conference on one of the top / most popular teams. I’d say in that situation he was more expected to make the AS team than anything else.
I also have one comment on the generalization that carmelo came back to NY "solely for the money and his brand". I don't think it's out of the question to venture that his wife and son (who's grown up up in NY) played a big role in his decision. It could very well be their wanting to stay in NY superseded his being tempted to play in houston / chicago. I had already prepared for him to leave this past summer, and was surprised he came back. I know stuff like this hasn't come up much in the project, but I felt the need to say it due to some of the stigma he's gotten.
I wouldn’t put that much stock into the all star appearances (something i’ve been consistent with the entire project) as bosh was making them in a weak eastern conference on one of the top / most popular teams. I’d say in that situation he was more expected to make the AS team than anything else.
I also have one comment on the generalization that carmelo came back to NY "solely for the money and his brand". I don't think it's out of the question to venture that his wife and son (who's grown up up in NY) played a big role in his decision. It could very well be their wanting to stay in NY superseded his being tempted to play in houston / chicago. I had already prepared for him to leave this past summer, and was surprised he came back. I know stuff like this hasn't come up much in the project, but I felt the need to say it due to some of the stigma he's gotten.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
Thru post #14:
Mel Daniels (1) - penbeast0
Chris Webber (3) - ronnymac2, SactoKingsFan, trex_8063
Chris Bosh (1) - Quotatious
Carmelo Anthony (1) - Clyde Frazier
The player who will come out of no where and beat Webber in the run-off has yet to be determined.....
Mel Daniels (1) - penbeast0
Chris Webber (3) - ronnymac2, SactoKingsFan, trex_8063
Chris Bosh (1) - Quotatious
Carmelo Anthony (1) - Clyde Frazier
The player who will come out of no where and beat Webber in the run-off has yet to be determined.....
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
Is there anyone willing to just switch their vote to Webber to avoid a run-off and move on, since we're at like 60 hours and the interest in this thread is clearly flagging?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
trex_8063 wrote:Is there anyone willing to just switch their vote to Webber to avoid a run-off and move on, since we're at like 60 hours and the interest in this thread is clearly flagging?
I honestly would but I can't with beast's high standards which would require me to justify my pick. That's not a complaint btw - praise be to the beast for such standards.
Nonetheless, I'm not looking to vote for other guys. Hoping to see Webb just get in so that we can have a more even battle.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
I'm going to throw a vote out for Neil Johnston to test the waters:
Spoiler:
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
OK, anyone willing to vote for any candidate already having votes so we can start the runoff?
Having watched Webber regularly in Washington (and less regularly for the rest of his career), I can't legitimately vote for him over the likes of Mel Daniels, Chris Mullin, Marques Johnson, or even Jerry Lucas. (I did vote for him in an earlier runoff v. Tony Parker though.)
Having watched Webber regularly in Washington (and less regularly for the rest of his career), I can't legitimately vote for him over the likes of Mel Daniels, Chris Mullin, Marques Johnson, or even Jerry Lucas. (I did vote for him in an earlier runoff v. Tony Parker though.)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #86
Considered voting Webber despite (what I would consider) fairly unimpressive with/without numbers because he does give you a lot of rounded boxscore contribution at his peak, and am fine with him about here.
Still I'll vote Neil Johnston.
- Led the league in ppg (x3), rpg (x1) and fg% (x3). Led the league in ppg and fg% in the same season.
- Led the league in PER (x1), WS/48 (x1) and WS (x5).
- Scored highly on my Wins Above Good for both PER and WS (did this by by posting dominant boxscore metrics for 5 years, and one other very good one)
- 4x All-NBA 1st team despite competition at position (albeit you could have more than one C for most of that span, still iirc for most of that span he was getting the most votes amongst centers.
There's era issues and team success issues though there's questions for everyone at this point.
Still I'll vote Neil Johnston.
- Led the league in ppg (x3), rpg (x1) and fg% (x3). Led the league in ppg and fg% in the same season.
- Led the league in PER (x1), WS/48 (x1) and WS (x5).
- Scored highly on my Wins Above Good for both PER and WS (did this by by posting dominant boxscore metrics for 5 years, and one other very good one)
- 4x All-NBA 1st team despite competition at position (albeit you could have more than one C for most of that span, still iirc for most of that span he was getting the most votes amongst centers.
There's era issues and team success issues though there's questions for everyone at this point.