How does peak Wade compare to peak Magic and Bird?

[Quotatious]

I don't recall this comparison ever being made here. I guess it's probably an unpopular opinion, but I think that Wade is pretty close to Larry and Magic, in terms of peak. Maybe not 2006, but 2009? I think it's close. Wade was a fantastic offensive force, great scorer and playmaker (doesn't seem to be that far behind Bird in both areas, if at all...not even close as a shooter, but very comparable scorer because of his ability to finish inside extremely well), and it's probably safe to say that Wade was better defensively than Bird and especially Magic (Larry was definitely an above average/good overall defender, but that's mostly because of his great team/help defense - 1 on 1, Wade was much better, because of his quickness and athleticism advantage).

I mean, LeBron is almost universally accepted as a top 5 peak player of all-time, on this board (vast majority of posters seem to rank him over both Magic and Bird, including myself), and the gap between peak LeBron and Wade, while clear (in LBJ's favor) isn't very big.

I think it's close enough that Wade at least deserves a comparison, but what do YOU think, guys?

[etopn23]

You realize the main argument against Bird was that his peak was so short right? People don't rank him as highly on this board because of his relatively short career. I don't think it's all that close head to head between Wade and Bird. We're talking about a guy who put up around 30/10 during his peak on 50/40/90 type efficiency *and* has some historic playoff runs - and was probably the most clutch player in NBA history. That steal against the Pistons to win it in the playoffs? That's the type of stuff Bird was infamous for. There was absolutely nothing you could do to stop it. He could be off the entire time, when his team needed a miracle he constantly provided that. There's a reason he was 3x MVP over Magic during his prime.

Magic is the best playmaker in NBA history. I want you to think about that statement. There is no one in basketball history who was a better PG than Magic Johnson. He was a winner, the best of his generation (neck and neck with Bird), and changed the league in a way that Wade never did.

If you look at just raw stats, David Robinson at his peak was better than Michael Jordan. There's more to the game than just start.

That's why he's not compared to Bird or Magic. They were simply better players. He's an all-time great - they were clearly on another level.

[GYK]

He's probably got a better peak then those guys. They have a better career but his best is better then most. Also that Finals is better then everyone's not named Shaq but even then it might be. Sad knees and unfortunate decision to come to the league older then most stars currently do(of course who knows except Wade if he was ready), although he did have a normal career arc.

[Dr Spaceman]

Speaking for myself, the main thing James brings to the table that gives him an argument over Bird is his monstrous defensive impact. LeBron at his pick was one of, if not the premier perimeter defenders in the league. I don't think LeBron is comparable to either of the 80s greats offensively, I've come to believe they're separated by a tier. Even in 2013 LeBron didn't have a versatile enough attack to be the offensive genius Bird was and he wasn't close to the playmaker either Bird or especially Magic were. Just my opinion, and not to take anything away from LeBron but he's still a guy who's living on drive/kick and finding cutters and shooters out of post up action, which is excellent and makes him a great offensive anchor but I'd stop short of calling him a truly gifted playmaker, and thus I can't see him as on Bird or Magic's level.

So how does this relate to Wade? Well he's not anything like the dominant defensive force LeBron was, and that's fine because few are. As you said he's good at 1v1 and he can be a pest at playing the passing lanes but anchoring a D the way James could at his peak is out of the question IMO. He's a nice positive player on that end but wouldn't make any kind of serious push for DPOY or even All-D 1st team (or at least shouldn't) and according to RAPM he doesn't even really separate himself from the fray at his own position.

And his playmaking, well, I don't see how you can say it's close to Bird or especially Magic. Like, at all. Just a different style of play entirely and similar to LeBron is he's more focused on his own scoring moves and kicking out of that than any kind of genius playmaking thing. He's a great pick and roll guard, but he generally doesn't go above and beyond what other star scoring wings have done; certainly he's done nothing that I would call Bird-esque. Wade has serious questions about his ability to play off-ball, as he's not a stellar shooter and he primarily makes his mark in pick and roll and driving with a head of steam. Good cutter and great offensive rebounder, and awesome finisher in general, but when we're comparing to the GOAT off-ball perimeter player he just falls short without reliable shooting range. He also just doesn't share Bird's sense of timing, where it was a catch and either attack, shoot or pass within a millisecond. Wade does like to hold the ball a little long for my taste, and I have similar complaints about James.

So overall, he's at least a level below Magic/Bird offensively, and doesn't have DPOY type stuff to make up for it ala LeBron. Don't see a case for Wade here.

[Dr Spaceman]

You realize the main argument against Bird was that his peak was so short right? People don't rank him as highly on this board because of his relatively short career. I don't think it's all that close head to head between Wade and Bird. We're talking about a guy who put up around 30/10 during his peak on 50/40/90 type efficiency *and* has some historic playoff runs - and was probably the most clutch player in NBA history. That steal against the Pistons to win it in the playoffs? That's the type of stuff Bird was infamous for. There was absolutely nothing you could do to stop it. He could be off the entire time, when his team needed a miracle he constantly provided that. There's a reason he was 3x MVP over Magic during his prime.

Well Bird is better, but his stats and "clutchness" and winning don't actually have all that much to do with it. Bird was similar to Jordan in that he had an unlimited scoring arsenal and thus there was no limit to the way he could pressure defenses. He was truly amazing with the way he moved and found openings on offense and his playmaking is on another level to pretty much anyone but the all-time great floor generals like Magic and Nash. Now a big reason he was able to win so much was this crazy offensive skill set allowed him to adapt to the talents of teammates like McHale, Walton, and perimeter scorers like Tiny and DJ and thus it's pretty difficult to even imagine a ceiling on a Bird-led offense no matter what type of player you surround him with.

If you look at just raw stats, David Robinson at his peak was better than Michael Jordan. There's more to the game than just start.

Maybe a bad example, because I've come to believe Robinson is the GOAT defender and thus his raw stats vastly undersell the impact he was making. Peak Jordan and Robinson are close enough that it's a legitimate debate in my mind. But that's for another topic.

[PaulieWal]

Wade has serious questions about his ability to play off-ball? That's definitely something new. Miami found their offensive identity after 2011 partly because Wade willingly moved off the ball and let LeBron dominate the handling and play-making. Wade is a great cutter, did a lot of catch and shoot mid-range action with LeBron, and would finish at the rim.

You should check out Haberstroh's article on how Wade is still one of the best at distorting defenses in the league despite being an extremely poor 3 point shooter (his series against the Spurs in 13/14 and Pacers 13 notwithstanding because of his bad knees when he couldn't move as well).

He also led the NBA in points via cuts among guards/wings from 11-14. He was averaging 1.52 points per play as a cutter (more deadly than an Allen open catch and shoot for 3). While it's true that he's not someone who could traditionally stretch the defense at the 3 point line, but his off-ball activity and movement was vital to shifting opposing defenses (with the caveat of him being healthy in stretches during those 3 years). I think it's false to say that there were questions about his ability to play off-ball since I think he's one of the best at it in recent years. Also, keep in mind there was really no one else before James arrived who could help Wade play off the ball.

[Dr Spaceman]

Wade has serious questions about his ability to play off-ball? That's definitely something new. Miami found their offensive identity after 2011 partly because Wade willingly moved off the ball and let LeBron dominate the handling and play-making. Wade is a great cutter, did a lot of catch and shoot mid-range action with LeBron, and would finish at the rim.

You should check out Haberstroh's article on how Wade is still one of the best at distorting defenses in the league despite being an extremely poor 3 point shooter (his series against the Spurs in 13/14 and Pacers 13 notwithstanding because of his bad knees when he couldn't move as well).

He also led the NBA in points via cuts among guards/wings from 11-14. He was averaging 1.52 points per play as a cutter (more deadly than an Allen open catch and shoot for 3). While it's true that he's not someone who could traditionally stretch the defense at the 3 point line, but his off-ball activity and movement was vital to shifting opposing defenses (with the caveat of him being healthy in stretches during those 3 years). I think it's false to say that there were questions about his ability to play off-ball since I think he's one of the best at it in recent years. Also, keep in mind there was really no one else before James arrived who could help Wade play off the ball.

Yeah I didn't phrase that correctly. Wade in an off-ball role from 2012-14 was great, but he wasn't having anything like Bird impact those years. When he did come close to Bird-level impact, it was playing as the lead guard running pick and roll and scoring off the drive.

So maybe serious questions was the wrong way to phrase it, because as you mentioned he's a ridiculously good finisher and cutter, but he does lack the dynamism of Bird to have top tier offensive impact without handling the ball a ton. I'll check out the Haberstroh article too, got a link?

[Quotatious]

You realize the main argument against Bird was that his peak was so short right? People don't rank him as highly on this board because of his relatively short career.

The same applies to Wade. Bird's prime was actually longer and healthier than Wade. Bird's career wasn't even really short (he played on a superstar or near-superstar level for 10 seasons - 1980-88 and 1990).

I don't think it's all that close head to head between Wade and Bird. We're talking about a guy who put up around 30/10 during his peak on 50/40/90 type efficiency *and* has some historic playoff runs

Bird's best regular season (1987-88), per 100 possessions - 37.6 ppg/ 11.6 rpg/ 7.7 apg/ 2.1 spg/ 0.9 bpg, 10.2% TOV, 60.8% TS

Wade's best regular season (2008-09) per 100 possessions - 41.8 ppg/ 7.0 rpg/ 10.3 apg/ 3.0 spg/ 1.9 bpg, 11.6% TOV, 57.4% TS

Adjusting their numbers is a necessity because Bird played on a much higher pace. 1988 Celtics' pace was 97.9, 2009 Heat's was 89.9. Theoretically, the fact that Bird played with McHale and Parish may've held back his numbers, a bit, while Wade had to carry his team all by himself,

To me, it seems very close...Wade scored more, got more assists, steals and even blocks (awfully impressive for a 6'4'' SG, compared to a 6'9'' SF/PF), Bird got more rebounds, scored more efficiently and turned the ball over less.

*and* has some historic playoff runs

Wade also had a historic playoff run, in 2006, so we know for sure that he was capable of it, with a strong supporting cast around him...Which certainly wasn't the case in 2009, when his team was awful, and he had a rookie coach. I don't see any reason why Wade couldn't have done the same in '09, when he was an even better player than he was in '06.

Also, Bird was far from a pristine playoff performer. His 1984 and 1986 runs were phenomenal, but other than that, he had some relatively poor performances in the playoffs. Good playoff performer, overall, but it's not like he was prime MJ, who could literally do no wrong.

and was probably the most clutch player in NBA history.

Any proof for it? It might be true, but without any statistical evidence to back it up, this claim doesn't carry any weight. It may very well be just a narrative based on some famous moments and highlights. For example Kobe is highly praised, and LeBron often criticized, by casual fans and analysts for his prowess (Kobe) and weakness (LeBron) in crunch time, but we actually have stats that show this notion is patently false. It may be the same with Bird. So, if you are not able to provide evidence for it, I'd rather just ignore the "clutch" factor.

That steal against the Pistons to win it in the playoffs? That's the type of stuff Bird was infamous for.

No matter how crucial it was, it's still just one play.

There was absolutely nothing you could do to stop it.

How so? Isiah just made a horrible pass. Bird was smart enough to anticipate and steal it, but it's absolutely not true that you couldn't prevent it from happening.

He could be off the entire time, when his team needed a miracle he constantly provided that. There's a reason he was 3x MVP over Magic during his prime.

Magic wasn't at his peak yet, Bird was. Magic's absolute peak/prime was 1987-91. Other than Magic, Bird's competition wasn't really that great. Moses' absolute prime (or peak, if you will) ended in 1983, Kareem and Dr. J were old, Jordan was just a rookie in 1984-85 and then missed almost the entire '85-'86 season, and nobody else was good enough to really challenge Bird. There were lots of lower level superstars/high level all-stars, but nobody other than Bird and Magic was a top 20 all-timer during that stretch of time (1984-86).

Magic is the best playmaker in NBA history. I want you to think about that statement. There is no one in basketball history who was a better PG than Magic Johnson.

I agree with that.

He was a winner, the best of his generation (neck and neck with Bird),

Sure, he was a winner, but he played on arguably the most stacked teams in NBA history, throughout his career. It doesn't take anything away from his greatness, but using team success to compare individual players, especially when one of them was so fortunate to play with other great players, almost his entire career, is unfair.

and changed the league in a way that Wade never did.

First of all, Oscar revolutionized the PG position two decades before Magic, they were pretty similar players, and "changing the game" depends on the era you play in - Wade didn't have that opportunity because when Magic entered the league in 1979, Wade wasn't even alive yet. I understand why someone wants to give the "pioneers of the game" some credit for that, but it's not intellectually honest, at least not 100%.

Also, Jordan didn't really revolutionize the game, either, and I guess you think he's the GOAT (I do,too) - Dr. J was doing the same things as MJ, 10-15 years earlier. Jordan was just a better player than Erving, but he didn't really bring anything new to the game, other than perfecting Dr. J's moves (MJ was more influential marketing-wise, but that's the only thing he really revolutionized - his arrival expanded NBA interest worldwide).

If you look at just raw stats, David Robinson at his peak was better than Michael Jordan.

That's not true. Robinson is close to Jordan, statistically, at his peak, but MJ is still better. In the playoffs, Jordan pulls ahead pretty comfortably. I don't see what's wrong with arguing that Robinson was close to Jordan as a regular season performer, though. Take a look at the 1987-93 Bulls' and 1990-96 Spurs' regular season winning percentage - it's pretty much the same, and Robinson had a worse supporting cast.

That's why he's not compared to Bird or Magic. They were simply better players. He's an all-time great - they were clearly on another level.

Career-wise, I have Magic at 9, Bird at 10, and Wade is somewhere between 20 and 25, for me, so yeah, I agree that Johnson and Bird are clearly superior, but in terms of peak, I don't see how it's clear. I feel like it's foregone conclusion to most people than Bird and Magic were better than Wade not only career-wise, but also peak-wise, but I think the latter is very debatable.

[PaulieWal]

Yeah I didn't phrase that correctly. Wade in an off-ball role from 2012-14 was great, but he wasn't having anything like Bird impact those years. When he did come close to Bird-level impact, it was playing as the lead guard running pick and roll and scoring off the drive.

So maybe serious questions was the wrong way to phrase it, because as you mentioned he's a ridiculously good finisher and cutter, but he does lack the dynamism of Bird to have top tier offensive impact without handling the ball a ton. I'll check out the Haberstroh article too, got a link?

That' fair enough though I do think he's one of the best off-ball players in recent years. He's not a Bird level off-ball player but he commands the same respect as some of the other elite shooters which is crazy to think about.

The question here is that we are strictly talking about peaks here and for his peak it was only him and a makeshift squad of players. There was no one he could use to play off the ball and this is something I also say about LeBron when people mention him being too ball-dominant. We saw LeBron too improved his off the ball game playing with Wade but had no one in Cleveland who could help him not play on the ball.


I will post some snippets from the Habserstroh article since you can't post full articles here.

This is the link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... point-line

But here's the crazy thing about all that: Opposing defenses still glued themselves to Wade off the ball like he's the next Steve Kerr.

This isn't just a theory; there is quantifiable evidence of this phenomenon. According to exclusive STATS LLC data provided to ESPN Insider from cutting-edge SportVU cameras that track the movement of the ball and every player last season, defenses stuck to Wade on the perimeter as if he were an elite 3-point shooter.

Now, this is where it gets interesting. Flipping through the leaders in respect rating is like glancing at a list of 3-point contest candidates. There's Kevin Durant. Predictably, Korver's name shows up high on the list. So do Curry and Thompson. Ray Allen. J.J. Redick. You name the sharpshooter ... he's there.

But oddly enough, so is Wade. He is the anomaly, the lone floor-spacer who ignores 3s altogether.

Indeed, Allen placed higher than Wade in respect rating last season. Evidently, Wade's remarkable cutting abilities have not gone unnoticed. Heat.com writer Couper Moorhead has chronicled Wade's now-you-see-me-now-you-don't routine, dubbing it "ghost cuts." Last season, Wade scored 147 points on 97 plays ending in a cut, which translates to a ridiculously good payoff of 1.52 points per play. Only Dwight Howard was more efficient. By comparison, leaving Allen open for a catch-and-shoot play last season -- a defensive cardinal sin -- resulted in a 1.2-point average payoff. Wade's move was more deadly.

Mods if you think I have posted too much please let me know and I will edit my post. Thanks.

[te887848]

Wade was better than both. In 2009 Wade was pretty close to LeBron but slightly worse. Neither Magic or Bird were ever as good as 2009 LeBron.

[Jetzger]

Wade was better than both. In 2009 Wade was pretty close to LeBron but slightly worse. Neither Magic or Bird were ever as good as 2009 LeBron.

You realize that your reasoning was "2009 Wade was worse than Lebron, while neither Bird nor Magic was as good as Lebron, so Wade is better."

Wade is better because none of them were as good as Lebron?

[Quotatious]

Speaking for myself, the main thing James brings to the table that gives him an argument over Bird is his monstrous defensive impact. LeBron at his pick was one of, if not the premier perimeter defenders in the league. I don't think LeBron is comparable to either of the 80s greats offensively, I've come to believe they're separated by a tier. Even in 2013 LeBron didn't have a versatile enough attack to be the offensive genius Bird was and he wasn't close to the playmaker either Bird or especially Magic were. Just my opinion, and not to take anything away from LeBron but he's still a guy who's living on drive/kick and finding cutters and shooters out of post up action, which is excellent and makes him a great offensive anchor but I'd stop short of calling him a truly gifted playmaker, and thus I can't see him as on Bird or Magic's level.

So how does this relate to Wade? Well he's not anything like the dominant defensive force LeBron was, and that's fine because few are. As you said he's good at 1v1 and he can be a pest at playing the passing lanes but anchoring a D the way James could at his peak is out of the question IMO. He's a nice positive player on that end but wouldn't make any kind of serious push for DPOY or even All-D 1st team (or at least shouldn't) and according to RAPM he doesn't even really separate himself from the fray at his own position.

And his playmaking, well, I don't see how you can say it's close to Bird or especially Magic. Like, at all. Just a different style of play entirely and similar to LeBron is he's more focused on his own scoring moves and kicking out of that than any kind of genius playmaking thing. He's a great pick and roll guard, but he generally doesn't go above and beyond what other star scoring wings have done; certainly he's done nothing that I would call Bird-esque. Wade has serious questions about his ability to play off-ball, as he's not a stellar shooter and he primarily makes his mark in pick and roll and driving with a head of steam. Good cutter and great offensive rebounder, and awesome finisher in general, but when we're comparing to the GOAT off-ball perimeter player he just falls short without reliable shooting range. He also just doesn't share Bird's sense of timing, where it was a catch and either attack, shoot or pass within a millisecond. Wade does like to hold the ball a little long for my taste, and I have similar complaints about James.

So overall, he's at least a level below Magic/Bird offensively, and doesn't have DPOY type stuff to make up for it ala LeBron. Don't see a case for Wade here.

Thanks for your post. I was hoping to see you respond to this thread, as you are one of the most open-minded posters here.

That being said, I disagree with a lot of things that you said.

First of all, I disagree that Magic and Bird should be ranked a tier above LeBron, offensively. That's probably because I like boxscore numbers more than you do. I look at boxscore metrics and RAPM, on/off etc. as equal sources of knowledge, and I just try to make sense of that combined knowledge. I think all of that is pretty valuable. In this regard, LeBron has a clear edge over Magic and especially Bird. On offense, currently I rank Magic over LeBron, and LeBron over Bird, but to me they are all close. James is the best overall player because of his defense. Offensively, I don't look at LeBron's ball dominance as a drawback, compared to Bird. One can say - "I'll take Bird, because he's better off-ball" - that's fine, he really WAS better off-bal (quite possibly the best ever), but LeBron is better WITH the ball. LBJ's combined scoring and playmaking abilities are almost second to none (plus his ability to draw fouls, which is way better, too).

Peak LeBron and Wade both draw ridiculous amounts of defensive attention because of their athleticism - it was not unusual to see entire defenses collapsing when LeBron and Wade attacked the middle. At one point during his career, Wade pick & roll was arguably the most feared play in basketball. LeBron and Wade have a pretty huge edge over Magic and Bird in terms of athleticism and explosiveness. They don't quite have the same kind of vision (although still pretty good) as Magic and Bird, but they make up for it with athleticism and elite ability to penetrate and draw fouls (drive & kick to shooters is an extremely effective play, when you have good shooters around a superstar of LBJ/Wade caliber, so I'm not sure why you act like it's so inferior to the way Magic/Bird were able to make plays - also, keep in mind how fast-paced and loose defensively the game was, in the 80s, compared to late 2000s - sure, handchecking was allowed in the 80s, but I think its impact on top tier superstar is fairly negligible...unless we're talking about Allen Iverson/Tony Parker type players, who rely on speed, quickness and handles - Wade did, too, but he had a huge strength advantage over both AI and TP).

Wade not being as good as LeBron defensively is true, but he was a borderline elite perimeter defender, too. What's admirable about 2009 Wade, to me, is that he played fairly consistent defense, despite his ridiculous offensive usage (that's the difference between peak Wade and T-Mac/Kobe, in my opinion).

As you know, I tend to value elite volume scorers a lot, especially if they are such highly effective playmakers as Wade was, to go along with it. Wade's AST/TOV% ratio was amazing (40.3% AST is pretty much point guard territory, and he had only 11.6% TOV, so +3.47 ratio - Bird's career-high was 28.9% AST in 1990, with slightly higher TOV% than '09 Wade). Magic's AST/TOV% ratio was clearly worse, too. Then, Wade's peak OBPM was higher than Magic's and Bird's peaks, too. His OWS weren't that much lower. Wade's peak PER is clearly higher, too. I'm not a huge fan of BPM, it has some pretty weird results, at times (and I'm not a big fan of taking boxscore numbers at face value), but that's still some food for thought, and I'm certainly not someone willing to dismiss it.

Well, Wade's case begins with boxscore numbers, but it doesn't end on it. He's a beast in RAPM, not even that far behind LeBron in '09, and his team had 111.3 ORtg with him on the floor, 100.1 without him. That's absolutely huge impact any way you look at it (he had even more impressive non-boxscore offensive stats in 2010, but I prefer 2009 as his peak because his defense seemed to be better, and he also had slightly better boxscore numbers - like I said, I value boxscore and non-boxscore info equally).

Now, we obviously don't have the same stats for Magic and Bird, but I'm really skeptical if their offensive impact was that much higher. It may've been higher (it probably was, especially Magic's, but not by a very sizeable margin), but Wade is still better on the other side of the ball, on D.

I want to make something clear - I DO NOT rank Wade's peak ahead of Magic's and BIrd's (Bird at 9, Magic at 10, Wade at 16, but it's obviously subject to change), I just wanted to see what some of the more open-minded posters (you being near the top of the list) have to say about it.

It's a pretty enjoyable debate for me, so thanks for the reply.

[Dr Spaceman]

Thanks for your post. I was hoping to see you respond to this thread, as you are one of the most open-minded posters here.

Thanks. I'm definitely open to having my mind changed about this, in case there's something you're seeing that I'm not.

First of all, I disagree that Magic and Bird should be ranked a tier above LeBron, offensively. That's probably because I like boxscore numbers more than you do. I look at boxscore metrics and RAPM, on/off etc. as equal sources of knowledge, and I just try to make sense of that combined knowledge. I think all of that is pretty valuable. In this regard, LeBron has a clear edge over Magic and especially Bird. On offense, currently I rank Magic over LeBron, and LeBron over Bird, but to me they are all close. James is the best overall player because of his defense. Offensively, I don't look at LeBron's ball dominance as a drawback, compared to Bird. One can say - "I'll take Bird, because he's better off-ball" - that's fine, he really WAS better off-bal (quite possibly the best ever), but LeBron is better WITH the ball. LBJ's combined scoring and playmaking abilities are almost second to none (plus his ability to draw fouls, which is way better, too).

I do recognize this. However, it's not really that I see an inherent virtue to playing off the ball per se, it's that the specific way Bird went about his business meant that his teams could afford to do more on offense while still getting superstar offensive production from him. This is a big, big deal, and the portability angle is what leads to a lot of people to have him as their offensive GOAT- and I haven't decided whether I agree, but it's a 3 man race for me between he Magic and Nash.

Anyway, it''s not just the simple fact that Bird plays without the ball. I've mentioned before how he was an instantaneous decision maker- when the ball came to him, he either drove, shot, or passed away within a split second. He doesn't do jab steps to set himself up, he doesn't dribble around and wait for a screen, he gets the ball and it's either an instantaneous basket or a pass out. Why is this such a big deal? Because a team has a limited number of resources (possessions, clock time, etc.) and the team that is best able to use those resources is the one that wins. Bird's instantaneous reads mean that on possessions he wasn't scoring the ball kept moving- allowing to make a type of "silent" impact, where he doesn't demand any team resources until he's actually ready to score.

If you were to do a study to determine points per time of possession, there's no question to me Bird is far and away above everyone else. Even on plays where his number is called, if he doesn't immediately have the shot he just passes out. With a 24 second shot clock, this matters. It means that your offense can basically split itself, with a McHale post up or a pick and roll or something while Bird roams the floor looking for separation. Bird is all the benefit of an elite scorer without any of the traditional costs, because he doesn't need the traditional action that superstars need to create shots for themselves.

And since Bird has such a diverse scoring arsenal that any look from the floor is a good one for him, that means the defense is effectively split in half. Bird demands superstar attention while not doing superstar things, which means that teams are no longer guarding just a McHale post up. They are guarding a McHale post up and Bird sprinting around the court looking for his shot. That's not to say defenses don't pay mind to James or Wade when they don't have the ball in their hands, but the fact that they don't have Bird's combination of shooting, spontaneity, and instant decision making means that they don't have to guard them the same way when they don't have the ball. Bird, on every possession, had to be treated like a superstar, even if he never touched the ball. That has never been true of anyone else, not even Michael Jordan to the same extent.

Peak LeBron and Wade both draw ridiculous amounts of defensive attention because of their athleticism - it was not unusual to see entire defenses collapsing when LeBron and Wade attacked the middle. At one point during his career, Wade pick & roll was arguably the most feared play in basketball. LeBron and Wade have a pretty huge edge over Magic and Bird in terms of athleticism and explosiveness. They don't quite have the same kind of vision (although still pretty good) as Magic and Bird, but they make up for it with athleticism and elite ability to penetrate and draw fouls (drive & kick to shooters is an extremely effective play, when you have good shooters around a superstar of LBJ/Wade caliber, so I'm not sure why you act like it's so inferior to the way Magic/Bird were able to make plays - also, keep in mind how fast-paced and loose defensively the game was, in the 80s, compared to late 2000s - sure, handchecking was allowed in the 80s, but I think its impact on top tier superstar is failry negligible...unless we're talking about Allen Iverson/Tony Parker type players, who rely on speed, quickness and handles - Wade did, too, but he had a huge strength advantage over both AI and TP).

Here's where I stand on this currently: on virtually every possession, there will be higher-efficiency shots to be had than a superstar isolation or high pick looking to score. I think the truly gifted playmakers we've seen have understood and have gone as far as to suppress their own scoring in order to generate these easier looks on a consistent basis. Is it valuable that LeBron can slash into the paint and finish over 3 defenders? absolutely. Is it more valuable than running the same action and instead finding a cutter or shooter? Perhaps, but one is a more consistent source of high-efficiency offense.

Think of it on a per-possession basis. LeBron and Wade are not scoring every time down the floor. On possessions they don't shoot, someone else has to, and given how ball-dominant these two were that means the look their teammates get is dependent on what James or Wade can create. And I think it's pretty reasonable to say that neither are creating anything like the type of looks Magic could on a consistent basis, right?

Let's look at this in mathematical terms. If LeBron plays 40 minutes, it's likely his team will have around 75 possessions with him on the floor. How many scoring attempts does he actually take? For the most part, around 25. So even for one of the best scorers ever, he's only actually scoring on 33% of the team's possessions while he's on the floor. The other 66% involve his teammates shooting. Now LeBron is great at creating looks for teammates, but he's not as good as Magic and he doesn't do it with anywhere near the consistency of Magic. So how much better of a playmaker does Magic have to be before the impact he has starts to outweigh LeBron's scoring? On a per-possession basis, are you really comfortable saying James' scoring+playmaking combined is worth more than Magic doing his playmaking thing every single possession? If Magic is, say, a 20% better playmaker, doesn't that add up to way more offensive value than what James brings?

Again I tend to think of basketball in some sense as cost-benefit. LeBron (and Wade, who has become a bit of an afterthought in this conversation ) use a great deal of team resources to create scoring opportunities for themselves, which are just less efficient than other types of looks the offense could be getting. meanwhile, Magic is consistently creating higher value shots for his team, even though he's not taking them himself. This is why assist is probably the worst box score stat- the type of shot generated doesn't factor in.

And I'll admit I do a bit of deferring to authority on this front- I have never seen smarter basketball players than Magic and Nash. And it strikes me that both guys had incredible scoring skillsets, and yet neither ever, at any point in their career, took it upon themselves to volume score. This has to mean something. Magic had plenty of 40 point games, hell Nash almost dropped 50 in the playoffs, and yet both of these guys who I consider true geniuses (and I don't take that word lightly) felt it was better that they be selective about shooting and instead looked to generate more efficient shots at the team level. And, not coincidentally, the best offenses we've ever seen were invariably led by these two. Again, this has to mean something.

A little exposition: I genuinely believe that Magic was capable of Wade-level scoring if that became the focus of his game. I have similar beliefs about nash.

Spoiler:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5G9csEQ8GI[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOjxUUiTXCI[/youtube]

I think people generally have a subconscious bias where they believe that playmakers become playmakers because they are 'limited' in their ability to score. My belief runs directly counter; I believe that scorers don't become playmakers because they're 'limited' in being able to see the possibilities opened up by the less direct but more effective playmaking route. I think the fact that the two greatest playmakers ever led the two greatest offensive dynasties ever should be very important to the view one takes of the sport.

Wade not being as good as LeBron defensively is true, but he was just a borderline elite perimeter defender, too. What's admirable about 2009 Wade, to me, is that he played fairly consistent defense, despite his ridiculous offensive usage (that's the difference between peak Wade and T-Mac/Kobe, in my opinion).

Agree 100%. It's just that to me his defense isn't good enough to make up the gap in offensive efficacy.

As you know, I tend to value elite volume scorers a lot, especially if they are such highly effective playmakers as Wade was, to go along with it. Wade's AST/TOV% ratio was amazing (40.3% AST is pretty much point guard territory, and he had only 11.6% TOV, so +3.47 ratio - Bird's career-high was 28.9% AST in 1990, with slightly higher TOV% than '09 Wade). Magic's AST/TOV% ratio was clearly worse, too. Then, Wade's peak OBPM was higher than Magic's and Bird's peaks, too. His OWS weren't that much lower. Wade's peak PER is clearly higher, too. I'm not a huge fan of BPM, it has some pretty weird results, at times (and I'm not a big fan of taking boxscore numbers at face value), but that's still some food for thought, and I'm certainly not someone willing to dismiss it.

Well, Wade's case begins with boxscore numbers, but it doesn't end on it. He's a beast in RAPM, not even that far behind LeBron in '09, and his team had 111.3 ORtg with him on the floor, 100.1 without him. That's absolutely huge impact any way you look at it (he had even more impressive non-boxscore offensive stats in 2010, but I prefer 2009 as his peak because his defense seemed to be better, and he also had slightly better boxscore numbers - like I said, I value boxscore and non-boxscore info equally).

Now, we obviously don't have the same stats for Magic and Bird, but I'm really skeptical if their offensive impact was that much higher. It may've been higher (it probably was, especially Magic's, but not by a very sizeable margin), but Wade is still better on the other side of the ball, on D.

Impact has to be scalable though. Even if Bird and Magic and Wade would have comparable RAPM numbers, the fact that Bird/Magic are having those numbers on GOAT offensive teams points to them just being straight up better at offense than Wade.

To put it more bluntly: Replace Wade with Bird on the 2011-14 Heat and they're the GOAT offensive team in my book. Similarly, replace James with Magic and you get the same result. What happened with the Heat those seasons is very salient here.

I want to make something clear - I DO NOT rank Wade's peak ahead of Magic's and BIrd's (Bird at 9, Magic at 10, Wade at 16, but it's obviously subject to change), I just wanted to see what some of the more open-minded posters (you being near the top of the list) have to say about it.

It's a pretty enjoyable debate for me, so thanks for the reply.

Cool. As you know I'm never married to my beliefs so if you'd like to share your thoughts on what I've posted above please do. It's a good topic, definitely worth a closer look, and I've enjoyed the discussion as well.

[te887848]

Wade was better than both. In 2009 Wade was pretty close to LeBron but slightly worse. Neither Magic or Bird were ever as good as 2009 LeBron.

You realize that your reasoning was "2009 Wade was worse than Lebron, while neither Bird nor Magic was as good as Lebron, so Wade is better."

Wade is better because none of them were as good as Lebron?

We are talking about a guy who averaged 30/5/8 with 2+ spg on great efficiency while being maybe the best and most disruptive team defender at the guard position and the best shot blocker as well. In addition, he posted a 30+ PER, which is legendary territory. Only guys like Jordan, LeBron, Shaq, Wilt, and a few others hit that mark, which signifies super dominance.

He wasn't quite as good as LeBron, but that season he was close. Magic and especially Bird have never sniffed a 30+ PER and both were very weak defensive players, especially relative to Wade, who was ELITE on that end.

[cyclix]

Peak Wade was an elite offensive and defensive player simultaneously. Can't say the same for Bird, Kobe, McGrady, Magic, etc.. peak

[Doctor MJ]

I don't recall this comparison ever being made here. I guess it's probably an unpopular opinion, but I think that Wade is pretty close to Larry and Magic, in terms of peak. Maybe not 2006, but 2009? I think it's close. Wade was a fantastic offensive force, great scorer and playmaker (doesn't seem to be that far behind Bird in both areas, if at all...not even close as a shooter, but very comparable scorer because of his ability to finish inside extremely well), and it's probably safe to say that Wade was better defensively than Bird and especially Magic (Larry was definitely an above average/good overall defender, but that's mostly because of his great team/help defense - 1 on 1, Wade was much better, because of his quickness and athleticism advantage).

I mean, LeBron is almost universally accepted as a top 5 peak player of all-time, on this board (vast majority of posters seem to rank him over both Magic and Bird, including myself), and the gap between peak LeBron and Wade, while clear (in LBJ's favor) isn't very big.

I think it's close enough that Wade at least deserves a comparison, but what do YOU think, guys?

I'll say first up: The thing that always particularly impressed about Wade is that he'd go through these bursts of manic energy. In that burst, he could be the anchor on both sides of the ball, and that could really help you in the playoffs. That's something, but it's tough to say how big a factor it is.

That aside, with Wade's normal play, to me it just doesn't scale offensively like Magic & Bird do. Realistically Wade's signature seasons and playoff runs are about him turning a horrible offense into something adequate, and if the team defense was great, that could be enough to win a title. Generally speaking though, I rank offensive players who are geared to optimize top flight offenses higher. Magic & Bird are guys like that, first and foremost because they are two of the highest BBIQ players in all of history.

I see that you don't think Wade is far behind Bird as a playmaker, but remember Bird's role is off-ball. I think it's worth considering that Bird perhaps should have been on-ball given how smart he was, but he had tons of impact in Boston from Day 1 based on his ability to see where the play was going and insert himself at the right moment, often with a rapid rebound-then-pass combo move. Wade racked up assists because he was on-ball, and he was best on-ball because that's what allowed him to score the most...and scoring is why Wade is truly relevant. And again, I think he's great, but generally speaking I think there's a real ceiling on the team offensive efficiency you can expect from Wade just do his thing.

[E-Balla]

Speaking for myself, the main thing James brings to the table that gives him an argument over Bird is his monstrous defensive impact. LeBron at his pick was one of, if not the premier perimeter defenders in the league. I don't think LeBron is comparable to either of the 80s greats offensively, I've come to believe they're separated by a tier. Even in 2013 LeBron didn't have a versatile enough attack to be the offensive genius Bird was and he wasn't close to the playmaker either Bird or especially Magic were. Just my opinion, and not to take anything away from LeBron but he's still a guy who's living on drive/kick and finding cutters and shooters out of post up action, which is excellent and makes him a great offensive anchor but I'd stop short of calling him a truly gifted playmaker, and thus I can't see him as on Bird or Magic's level.

So how does this relate to Wade? Well he's not anything like the dominant defensive force LeBron was, and that's fine because few are. As you said he's good at 1v1 and he can be a pest at playing the passing lanes but anchoring a D the way James could at his peak is out of the question IMO. He's a nice positive player on that end but wouldn't make any kind of serious push for DPOY or even All-D 1st team (or at least shouldn't) and according to RAPM he doesn't even really separate himself from the fray at his own position.

And his playmaking, well, I don't see how you can say it's close to Bird or especially Magic. Like, at all. Just a different style of play entirely and similar to LeBron is he's more focused on his own scoring moves and kicking out of that than any kind of genius playmaking thing. He's a great pick and roll guard, but he generally doesn't go above and beyond what other star scoring wings have done; certainly he's done nothing that I would call Bird-esque. Wade has serious questions about his ability to play off-ball, as he's not a stellar shooter and he primarily makes his mark in pick and roll and driving with a head of steam. Good cutter and great offensive rebounder, and awesome finisher in general, but when we're comparing to the GOAT off-ball perimeter player he just falls short without reliable shooting range. He also just doesn't share Bird's sense of timing, where it was a catch and either attack, shoot or pass within a millisecond. Wade does like to hold the ball a little long for my taste, and I have similar complaints about James.

So overall, he's at least a level below Magic/Bird offensively, and doesn't have DPOY type stuff to make up for it ala LeBron. Don't see a case for Wade here.

I gave you an and 1 because I agree but there's something Wade has over all three of these guys: The ability to perform just as well against great defenses as he does against bad defenses (and that's not an exaggeration at all). Outside of Magic I'd say Wade is the most consistent of the bunch against great defenses and in the playoffs it comes in handy. Still he is a level behind those two offensively just like Lebron is as you said.

[Magic Boo]

So how does this relate to Wade? Well he's not anything like the dominant defensive force LeBron was, and that's fine because few are. As you said he's good at 1v1 and he can be a pest at playing the passing lanes but anchoring a D the way James could at his peak is out of the question IMO. He's a nice positive player on that end but wouldn't make any kind of serious push for DPOY or even All-D 1st team (or at least shouldn't) and according to RAPM he doesn't even really separate himself from the fray at his own position.

Wade was once 3rd in DPOY voting.

I really dont remember any superstar wing player who came up with so many clutch defensive plays in his career as Wade. Thats really the most underappreciated aspect of his game.

Lebron was not a great defender until he came to miami. And Miamis defense wasnt great just because of Lebron, it was because they had two guys on the perimeter who where more athletic than anybody else. Take Wade out and Lebrons impact on D wouldnt be the same, as we saw in Miamis last year when Wade wasnt the same and we see it this year in cleveland.

Lebron wasnt the anchor, if anyone it wad Wade, who even was called their rim protector by spoelstra. Think about that, a 6'4 rim protector.

[ccameron]

He's a great pick and roll guard, but he generally doesn't go above and beyond what other star scoring wings have done; certainly he's done nothing that I would call Bird-esque. Wade has serious questions about his ability to play off-ball, as he's not a stellar shooter and he primarily makes his mark in pick and roll and driving with a head of steam. Good cutter and great offensive rebounder, and awesome finisher in general, but when we're comparing to the GOAT off-ball perimeter player he just falls short without reliable shooting range. He also just doesn't share Bird's sense of timing, where it was a catch and either attack, shoot or pass within a millisecond. Wade does like to hold the ball a little long for my taste, and I have similar complaints about James

I know you discussed this later on, but I think Wade's ability to play off-ball is a strength, and there are not serious questions about it at all. Standing at the 3 pt line and being a sharp shooter fine, but that is not what it means to be a good off-ball player. Wade's movement and cutting, as discussed are extremely disruptive of defenses in a way that a 3pt sharp shooter can't be -- and, on top of all of that, as the article referred to stated, they guard him at the 3pt line as well for good measure anyway.

Wade's stats, scoring, defense, etc. are all well recognized, but I think what is not recognized enough is what Spoelstra has recently said of Wade, that he is a "chameleon" -- he's able to play whatever role needed of him, and that has changed multiple times throughout his entire career. Lebron rightly got a lot of credit for his versatility, being able to guard so many positions, etc., but it really was Wade who had the flexibility to completely change his game and play an entirely new role. It's a kind of versatility that doesn't really get noticed and there are no stats for, but the team knows it.

I think taken all together, Peak Wade is very comparable to Peak Magic and Bird, just as peak Wade is very comparable to peak Lebron.

[Dr Spaceman]

He's a great pick and roll guard, but he generally doesn't go above and beyond what other star scoring wings have done; certainly he's done nothing that I would call Bird-esque. Wade has serious questions about his ability to play off-ball, as he's not a stellar shooter and he primarily makes his mark in pick and roll and driving with a head of steam. Good cutter and great offensive rebounder, and awesome finisher in general, but when we're comparing to the GOAT off-ball perimeter player he just falls short without reliable shooting range. He also just doesn't share Bird's sense of timing, where it was a catch and either attack, shoot or pass within a millisecond. Wade does like to hold the ball a little long for my taste, and I have similar complaints about James

I know you discussed this later on, but I think Wade's ability to play off-ball is a strength, and there are not serious questions about it at all. Standing at the 3 pt line and being a sharp shooter fine, but that is not what it means to be a good off-ball player. Wade's movement and cutting, as discussed are extremely disruptive of defenses in a way that a 3pt sharp shooter can't be -- and, on top of all of that, as the article referred to stated, they guard him at the 3pt line as well for good measure anyway.

Wade's stats, scoring, defense, etc. are all well recognized, but I think what is not recognized enough is what Spoelstra has recently said of Wade, that he is a "chameleon" -- he's able to play whatever role needed of him, and that has changed multiple times throughout his entire career. Lebron rightly got a lot of credit for his versatility, being able to guard so many positions, etc., but it really was Wade who had the flexibility to completely change his game and play an entirely new role. It's a kind of versatility that doesn't really get noticed and there are no stats for, but the team knows it.

I think taken all together, Peak Wade is very comparable to Peak Magic and Bird, just as peak Wade is very comparable to peak Lebron.

Yeah I agree. "Serious questions" was poor wording on my part. Compared to the average player Wade is a seriously dominant player even without ball-handling primacy. Compared to Bird though? I don't think so.

Consider that Bird was having 09 Wade impact while playing a role most similar to the 2012-14 Wade role. Wades impact, while huge, took a requisite drop with the drop in on-ball primacy where Bird does no such thing. There are skill set reasons for this and I go more in depth in that monstrosity of a post I made this morning. I don't question whether Wade would be great off-ball, I question whether he could be Bird-great. Big difference.