Peaks project: #3

[trex_8063]

Don't have time to write up my thoughts and initial picks just yet (likely going with Lebron, Wilt, Kareem, in that order), but wanted to get the thread underway for you guys. So have at it....

[Dr Spaceman]

After Shaq and LeBron are off the board, my vote is going to David Robinson, barring some really spectacular arguments for another candidate. First, I want people to watch a few highlights, both because I feel most people haven’t really been passively exposed to Robinson as they are with other megastars, and because I think we spend a lot of time discussing why someone doesn’t deserve a spot, and it’s healthy to look at things the other way too; these are all fantastic basketball players, and honestly I find an argument that weighs a player’s strengths in the context of other stars more persuasive than one that discusses his weaknesses.

So without further ado, I give you David Robinson’s quadruple double vs. the Pistons:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkpT0QdUDIY[/youtube]

Impact

Spoiler:

Okay, now to the meat of my argument: impact. Because Robinson may have had more of it than anyone, ever. We can start with the big picture and then sand down to the miniscale and microscale. First, Robinson’s arrivals and departures always coincided with massive swings in team performance. Not surprising for a star necessarily, but the magnitude and consistency of these shifts is certainly worth discussing. First, David arrives in 1989-90: the 21-61, -7.45 SRS Spurs suddenly make a quantum leap to 56-26, with a 3.58 SRS. That’s an SRS jump of over 10!!! Their defense jumps from +0.1 (13th) to -3.9 (3rd) and their offense from -6.9 to -0.1. Certainly other additions like Cummings and Ellis helped a lot, but how many other rookies have ever done anything like this?

So the next big swing comes in 1996-97 with Robinson’s big injury tha kept him out the whole season. The previous season’s 59-23, 5.98 SRS Spurs drop to 20-62 and a -7.93 SRS (!!!). That is a -12 shift in SRS. That is so ridiculous I don’t even know where to begin. The only larger drop I’ve seen came with LeBron leaving the Cavs in 2011, so take that for what it’s worth.

We have a variety of on/off data for 1995. Unfortunately, we don’t have RAPM, but we have enough to paint a reasonable picture. Robinson was the leader in net on/off in both 1994 and 1995, and in 1995 his lead over #2 Vlade Divac was to the tune of +19.8 to +13.8. His net on/off is among the highest ever recorded, up there with 04 KG and 09 LBJ.

FWIW, the estimated RAPM we do have (via J.E.) says that not only was Robinson the single most impactful player every single year he was healthy, but that the margins are so huge that no amount of error could correct them. He was leading this stat by +2 to +4 every single year. No player we’ve seen has ever had that type of lead in RAPM since.

And we’re littered with other examples as well. D-Rob’s postseason on/off in 2000 (with Duncan injured) is the single highest mark EVER RECORDED. David led the 1999 champion spurs in total RAPM. His defensive impact stats were better than Duncan every year they played together. The dude could impact the game on a level we’ve never seen.

As a sort of capstone to this point, I see a lot of people push LeBron 2009 for the sheer amount of lift he provided that terrible Cleveland roster. if that’s the case, you really should be pulling for Robinson here, as the numbers above are suggesting he did the same, if not better.

How did he make that impact?

Spoiler:

Well the argument for Robinson is always going to revolve around defense. I’ll say up front, I think peak Robinson was the best defensive player the league has ever seen, and I think there’s a gap. Where a typical defender will excel in a couple of key areas (post D, PNR, perimeter D, rim protection) Robinson excels in ALL OF THEM. Not only was he the most effective we’ve ever seen in a lot of these aspects, he was versatile enough to do them all at the same time.

For one thing, there’s never been a player. as tall as Robinson who could move the way he does. His coordination and fluidity are simply unmatched by players that size (and frankly players of any size). His positioning and footwork were elite, and in combination with his aforementioned fluidity he was the best pick and roll defender pre-21st century. Interestingly, he actually worked with Thibodeau from 91-95, and you can see the beginnings of Thibs’ ICE scheme, and Robinson was sort of a prototype for the mobile “hedge and recover” bigs we see today.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDWQlisvJmc[/youtube]

Look how he jumps the ball hander and then recovers to the paint to force a contested mid range jumper. That is vintage Thibs, defending the pick and roll with only two guys and giving up the mid range shot. The echoes of this work reverberated through Garnett and later Noah throughout the years. That video is a spitting image of what those two would go on to do to dominate modern NBA defense.

Of course Robinson excelled as a classic rim protector as well, with his length and absurd sense of timing. His movement and timing throughout the lane was alarming, and he covered more ground in the pain than any player I’ve seen, and with his quick reactions and exquisite timing his recovery is second to none:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8KMh_1RmMg[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqYwdua01_I[/youtube]

The dude just had a body that enabled him to do things no one else could defensively. he seriously moved like a guard, and his straight line speed from anywhere on the floor to the rim is a thing of beauty:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSPEqphXbvA[/youtube]

It’s not just the mobility, though. It’s the motor and relentlessness. Robinson had a drive to get his hands into everything that happened on the defensive end of the floor unlike anything I’ve ever seen. He was never one to take plays off; chasedown blocks were a regular thing with him, and hell I’ve even seen him come away with a chasedown steal:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y1wnxgkT4s[/youtube]

Are you joking?? Robinson is one of those dudes who would exploit every possible margin where his team could get an edge. Just like Chris Paul will walk up the floor without touching the ball to preserve shotclock, or Steve Nash will sprint up the sideline as soon as he takes the outlet, Robinson was constantly trying to get a headstart on defending effectively. He goes above and beyond, and he trusted his impeccable awareness, even if it meant abandoning the scheme and going rogue:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gV4_j7tNmp4[/youtube]

Robinson was a briliant shotblocker, leading the league twice and averaging over 3 per game for his entire prime, but as he got older what became most impressive about his rim protection was his timing and positioning. He, more than anyone I’ve seen, had a sense of where to place himself just to get in the way of the driving player. Robinson was incredibly foul-averse, substantially better than Olajuwon and right on par with prime Duncan- despite the latter being far less active and racking up far fewer blocks and steals. I credit this to Robinson’s intelligence and the aformentioned positioning; he was rarely beat to his spots aqnd often didn’t have to move because he was already in the way and could simply hold up his long arms to interfere around the rim.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky0erETxUIM[/youtube]

He didn’t need “verticality” because his arms were so damn long, and if you watch the video at the beginning of this post pay attention to the times where Isaiah or someone would drive, and rather than having to move to help Robinson is simply standing there waiting for the driving player. It’s remarkable stuff.

Robinson’s overall efficacy as a defender is unparalleled in NBA history IMO. Yes, I believe at his peak he was the defensive GOAT. Impact numbers, raw stats, and the observations I’ve laid out above all support this. He was truly a freak combination of an elite rim protector, elite perimeter defender, and a mind on par with the greatest we’ve seen. Robinson even at the end of his career was showing up as the best defensive player in the league by RAPM, and even just looking at statistical averages we can see he was obviously doing more at his peak. I’ve hand-tracked a couple of playoff games, including one from the 1995 playoffs against the Lakers. Robinson held the entire opposing team to 8/28 (29.5%) shooting in the paint, including 4/14 (28%) at the rim. In a playoff game in which he played 52:00. Do I have to explain how insane that is?

TL;DR: Robinson=defensive GOAT

Robinson’s offense

Spoiler:

Robinson’s offense is going to be the big sticking point for people. In general there’s the feeling that his numbers overstated his goodness and that his playoff outings show he’s a flawed player. I’m going to do my best to tackle both points and give a general idea about how I feel Robinson stacks up offensively.

So first, his raw averages are mind boggling. Most of his prime he’s a 30/10/3 guy with rare peaks of like 12 rebounds and 5 assists. He was a remarkably consistent producer in the regular season, and his efficiency was sublime, topping 60% TS% in the season we’re discussing. Advanced stats LOVE the guy, he thrice led the league in PER, twice led in OWS, and even led the league in OBPM one season. If you believe in the box score’s ability to represent offensive efficacy, there’s basically no doubting Robinson was GOAT among big men.

What was Robinson great at? First, he was probably the best off-the-dribble attacker as a big man outside of Dirk. He played the face-up game a lot, and overwhelmed opponents with his first step and athleticism. He drew obscene amounts of fouls this way, with free throw rates closing in on .600 most of his prime. He drew oodles and oodles of fouls on opposing big men who just couldn’t keep up with him. He was a great offensive rebounder and excellent finisher ingeneral; quick leaps and soft touch around the rim. There’s no doubt in my mind he could’ve been a volume PNR finisher like Amar’e or DeAndre in today’s game. He was a really explosive finisher:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgocn2YMKyk[/youtube]

Robinson had a solid midrange jumper, although it was prone to drop with fatigue. He was a little like LeBron stylistically in that he liked to straight line drive to the rim and kick the ball outside or finish himself. He was an underrated passer, topping out as a 5 APG player in 1994. There’s really no denying the results; the Spurs were a top offense every year with him at the helm and focal point.

One thing I want to mention: Robinson’s USG was crazy. Obscene. he was carrying Jordan-level volume for that Spurs team, and as a big man that’s frankly insane.

What about his playoff performance?

Yes, it is an issue, although how big I’m not sure. When we talk about Robinson in the playoffs really his big flaw was that he didn’t have a back-to-basket game, and thus had really no way to create reliable offense. Teams that sent aggressive help could stifle his dribble attacks, and he didn’t have many counters.

That’s not to say he wasn’t effective in the playoffs; on the contrary, he put up 25/12/3 in his 1995 playoff run. His efficiency wasn’t great, but for a guy who gets murdered for his performance this year there’s really nothing supporting that. Even in the series against Hakeem he put up 24/12/3… where exactly is this reputation coming from?

Look, I’ve brought this up a little bit before, but look at the dude’s usage level on offense. And think about the role he played on defense. And now think about the fact he averaged 42 MPG in the playoffs after averaging 38 in the regular season, and consider that his peers Hakeem and Shaq were notorious for taking regular seasons off. Is his playoff run starting to make a bit more sense now?

And let’s not sugar coat this: Robinson’s cast was BAD. His best teammte in 1995 was Sean Elliot. Ive pulled up a comparison to give you an idea of who exactly Elliot was as a player:

http://bkref.com/tiny/sLYXM

Again, this is Robinson’s best teammate. What about Rodman, you say? Dennis Rodman played 49 games total this season, and started ony 26. During the offseason,he was arrested twice: once for carrying a loaded shotgun with an “introverted note” (he denies it was a suicide attempt) and again after he drove a motorcycle while intoxicated and sustained serious injuries.

Hell, Rodman can tell his story of the 1995 season far better than I can:

It started to fall apart in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Lakers. In Game 3 of the series, which we lost, I came out of the game in the second half and took my shoes off on the sideline. This was no different than most other games. I didn't see a place for me to sit, so I lay down to the press table that ran behind the baseline. So there I was, shoes off, towel over my head, kicking back watching the game.
Then, during a time-out, I didn't get up. I didn't join the huddle. I sat where I was, watching.
I didn't play any more in that game. Nothing was said to me; I guess it was just supposed to be understood that I wasn't going back in. After we lost that game, we still led in the series, two games to one, and the Spurs decided to suspend me for Game 4. They said the suspension was for "insubordination". Then, after we won that game, they decided I wasn't going to start Game 5.

Players started deciding I wasn't worth the trouble, that the team would be better off without me.

The Rockets went seven games to beat the PHoenix Suns, and the last game of that series was May 20, two days after we finished off the Lakers. I wanted to go to Las Vegas during that time off, so I did. I went with my friend Dwight Manley and Mike Silver, an reporter from Sports Illustrated. This, of course, drove everyone crazy. They didn't know where I was, and they were worried that I'd just bailed on the team.
Jack Haley called me in Las Vegas and told me everyone was panicking. He told me I had to get back to San Antonio that Saturday Night, May 20, to attend a team dinner with everybody and their wives. Then Bob Hill called and told me I better be there - or else.

They asked me to guard Olajuwon, and I refused. Bob Hill came up to me and asked if I would take Hakeem in the first half, and I said no

.

David asked me for help, and I told him right to his **** face, "I am not going down there." I was not going to help him.
They asked me to double-team Olajuwon, and I refused.

so they'd throw it out to the shooter - Horry - and he killed us on three-pointers. We made Horry a star in that series.

Guess who was guarding Robert freaking Horry?

look, I’m not going to say Robinson doesn’t deserve some criticism for that series. But that’s become the series that defined his entire career, and that’s entirely unfair, considering he didn’t play badly, and he was simply one of many, many problems for that team, which frankly far overachieved for its talent level. Olajuwon was brilliant, of course, but not so much so that it should be the end-all be-all.

Let’s take a step back for a second and evaluate Robinson’s role again: he was carrying a devastatingly heavy role. he was rocking Michael Jordan levels of offensive usage in addition to performing his duties as one of the greatest defensive anchors we’ve ever seen. The Spurs had no perimeter players save Elliot who could create a shot from the perimeter, and Elliot wasn’t even good. Rodman was a soul-destroying monster who openly sabotaged the coach and team. And Robinson found himself right in the middle.
I don’t think you’ll find another example of a player carrying that kind of load, and I don’t think it’s close. So when we talk about Robinson’s offense and his playoff struggles, we should be boiling this down to one key point: he simply wasn’t good enough to drag a team to a title playing the role of Michael Jordan on offense and Bill Russell on defense.
How do you feel about criticising him now?
One thing I want to note: I absolutely do think Robinson coul’ve been the number 1 option on a champion. I think with the increased focus on pick and roll and finishing today that Robinson would be incredible, and I think all he needed was a perimeter creator on the level of, say, Monta Ellis to maximize his playoff offensive output.

Comparing with the competition

Spoiler:

If we accept the argument above, we have to accept that Robinson has a very strong case against many of the names being brought up at this point. I already noted that Robinson’s impact stats are right on par with LeBron, who is the king of that stuff in his Cleveland years.

Let’s talk about Wilt. If we’re talking about 1967, we’re talking the defense/passing-oriented version of Wilt. Now ostensibly lots of Wilt’s impact came on the defensive end, but how much really? As good as Wilt may have been (and we don’t have enough footage to verify) I really really doubt Wilt was hitting those kind of notes defensively. Like, really doubt. Wilt wasn’t comparable to his peer Russell, and frankly I don’t think Russell peaked as high as Robinson on D. Wilt was strong, and a great post defender and shot blocker, but his lesser mobility and my burning questions about his BBIQ lead me to doubt he was really approaching Robinson there.

So offense? Well let’s not forget the theme of Wilt’s career: his team offenses improved as he took less of a scoring role. That’s a terrible sign. Wilt gets a lot of press for his passing this season, but Robinson was a terrific passer in his own right, and Robinson was arguably the most dominant statistical big outside of 62 Wilt anyway. Wilt was an even more limited scorer than Robinson was in the playoffs; Wilt’s only job was to finish around the basket Wilt was 8th on his team in shot attempts/36. Can we really even compare their offensive roles? How can Wilt be more effective offensively if he doesn’t have anywhere clsoe to the level of influence of Robinson? IMO Robinson was better on both sides of the ball, and if you’re voting for the archetype of Wilt 67 in this slot, David should be an easy choice over him considering the similarities.

Kareem? How good was his offense really? He was a dominant scorer to be sure, but his passing wasn’t great and he wasn’t the terrifying force at the rim that the best offensive Centers are. he was certainly elite, even in a historic sense, but there’s a reason the offense improved so dramatically upon Magic’s arrival. Kareem in his peak season looks weaker than peer Bill Walton in may areas, and pretty comparable to someone like Dr. J, and I have both guys below Robinson. kareem’s peak is an interesting one, because I have a sneaking suspicion his impact was not matching up with those bo score numbers. And as good as Kareem was on defense, I don’t really think it’s a comparison between the two.

Duncan? It’s debateable, but David is far more statistically impressive, has an unquestionably higher motor, and seemed by all accounts to be the more effecitve defender and more versatile player.

Hakeem is another interesting one, and I’m not sure how to contextualize his offense. I don’t think his defense was on the level of David, and as I’ve explained David was a ridiculous offensive player in his own right. hakeem’s offensive impact looks terrible in his later years, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it wasn’t all THAT in his peak years.

[eminence]

Starting in the next rounds could you post the list to date in the opening post?

My early thoughts: voted Lebron #1 the past two rounds, no reason to change that now. But in the #2 spot for this rounds I'm having some reservations, voted Wilt #3 last time, but to me a couple other guys have some good cases for the #2/3 spots as well: Magic and Duncan being the first two guys -Hakeem 93 or 94, very close but a hair below to me.

I'd like to start by comparing the three bigmen:

Duncan 03: 31.6 pp100 @ 4.5 rTS 17.5 rp100 5.3 ap100 26.9 per .248 ws/48
Wilt 67: 20.7 pp100 @ 14.4 rTS 20.8 rp100 6.7 ap100 26.5 per .285 ws/48
Hakeem 93: 33.6 pp100 @ 4.1 rTS 16.7 rp100 4.6 ap100 27.3 per .234 ws/48
Wilt 64: 33.3 pp100 @ 5.2 rTS 20.2 ap100 4.6 ap100 31.6 per .325 ws/48
Drob 95: 36.9 pp100 @ 5.9 rTS 14.5 rp100 3.9 ap100 29.1 per .273 ws/48

Not sure on the postseason stats for Wilt 67, but in general his scoring dropped a bit while his rebounding/passing/defense all picked up a bit.

Duncan PS: 30.6 pp100 @ 5.8 rTS 19.1 rp100 6.6 ap100 28.4 per .279 ws/48
Wilt 67 PS: 25.3 per .253 ws/48
Hakeem PS: 31.3 pp100 @ 3.2 rTS 17.1 rp1oo 5.8 ap100 26.7 per .221 ws/48
Wilt 64 PS: 31.3 per .323 ws/48
Drob 95: 32.6 pp100 @ -0.7 rTS 15.6 rp100 4.0 ap100 22.6 per .176 ws/48

Duncan jumps out to me as the leader due to a playoff run that seems to be a clear step above the others. Without rewatching Hakeems '93 playoffs I can't really say exactly how good his defense was, but I doubt it would be enough to push him over Duncan for me as he also plays excellent defense.

Anywho, just my early thoughts, would love to hear others chime in on these big men (and possibly others? Kareem/Robinson maybe). Also having a bit of a tough time comparing Magic to these other guys as he impacts the game so much more on one end and so much less on the other.

Edit: came back and added some other big men

[eminence]

.

Great stuff Spaceman, just to clarify quick for me, you're supporting '95 as David's peak right?

[JordansBulls]

1st ballot selection: Kareem 1971 - Dominated on the season, playoffs and also with a fascinating record of 12-2 in the playoffs.

2nd ballot selection: Hakeem 1994 - phenomonal season on both ends of the floor, won league and finals and DPOY

3rd ballot selection: Lebron 2013 - Great overall season especially in the regular season and dominant team record, but playoffs not as good as two other playoffs such as 2009 and 2012.

--------- RS PER, WS48, --------- PER, WS48 playoffs
KAJ 1971: 29.0, 0.33, -----------25.0, 0.27 (14 playoff games, title)
Hakeem 1994: 25.3, 0.210----------27.7, 0.208 (23 playoff games, title)
Lebron 2013: 31.6, 0.322 -----28.1, 0.260 (23 playoff games, title)
Wilt 1967: 26.5, .285------------25.3, 0.25 (15 playoff games, title)

Wilt's 1967 was great as well however to me with it being his 8th best season PER wise and 7th best in the playoffs he kinda hurts him here. Also in the playoffs he was the 2nd leading scorer on his team and in the finals he was the 5th leading scorer on the team.

Remember scoring was probably Wilt's greatest strength and to be 5th in it on the team in the finals is major.

http://webuns.chez-alice.fr/finals/1967.htm#

PHI. G FG-FGA FT-FTA REB AST PF PTS
Greer 6 59-148 38-46 48 37 23 156
Walker 6 46-102 48-62 53 20 23 140
Jones 6 50-110 21-28 21 32 22 121
Cunningham 6 48-107 22-40 34 18 27 118
Chamberlain 6 42-75 22-72 171 41 16 106

Others to consider:


Duncan 2003: 26.9, 0.248------------28.4, 0.279 (24 playoff games, title)
Magic 1987: 27.0, 0.263-------------26.2, 0.265 (18 playoff games, title)
Bird 1986: 25.6, 0.244--------------23.9, 0.263 (23 playoff games, title)
Lebron James 2012:30.7, 0.298-------30.3, 0.284 (23 playoff games, title)

[Dr Positivity]

Same top 3 as last time

Ballot 1: Lebron 2013

Ballot 2: Hakeem 1994

Ballot 3: Tim Duncan 2003

I am interested to hear the Hakeem and Duncan arguments since I am not sure about my choice to put Hakeem slightly ahead. I don't feel 1995 Hakeem should be the year for him since Houston's DRTG weirdly fell off which makes me concerned whether he's as dominant on that end. A case can be made for 2002 Duncan instead of 2003 as well

[Jim Naismith]

Not sure on the postseason stats for Wilt, but in general his scoring dropped a bit while his rebounding/passing/defense all picked up a bit.

Duncan PS: 30.6 pp100 @ 5.8 rTS 19.1 rp100 6.6 ap100 28.4 per .279 ws/48
Wilt PS: 25.3 per .253 ws/48
Hakeem PS: 31.3 pp100 @ 3.2 rTS 17.1 rp1oo 5.8 ap100 26.7 per .221 ws/48

Every one of his playoffs from 1960-66, Wilt had a higher PER than his 1967 PER.

For example in 1964, Wilt had 31.3 PER @ .323 WS/48. Those are better than Duncan and Hakeem's statlines.

[Jim Naismith]

Wilt's 1967 was great as well however to me with it being his 8th best season PER wise and 7th best in the playoffs he kinda hurts him here. Also in the playoffs he was the 2nd leading scorer on his team and in the finals he was the 5th leading scorer on the team.

Remember scoring was probably Wilt's greatest strength and to be 5th in it on the team in the finals is major.

Shouldn't we all make arguments against what we deem to be the strongest version of a player?

It seems you have 1964 Wilt > 1967 Wilt. If so, you can't ding the 1964 version for bad scoring.

[trex_8063]

Impact

Okay, now to the meat of my argument: impact. Because Robinson may have had more of it than anyone, ever. We can start with the big picture and then sand down to the miniscale and microscale. First, Robinson’s arrivals and departures always coincided with massive swings in team performance. Not surprising for a star necessarily, but the magnitude and consistency of these shifts is certainly worth discussing. First, David arrives in 1989-90: the 21-61, -7.45 SRS Spurs suddenly make a quantum leap to 56-26, with a 3.58 SRS. That’s an SRS jump of over 10!!! Their defense jumps from +0.1 (13th) to -3.9 (3rd) and their offense from -6.9 to -0.1. Certainly other additions like Cummings and Ellis helped a lot, but how many other rookies have ever done anything like this?

Larry Bird says hi.

We have a variety of on/off data for 1995. Unfortunately, we don’t have RAPM,

fwiw, colts18 ran some regressions for '94, '95, and '96 from the raw plus/minus data available for those years. He posted it in this thread (here on page 7 of the thread):

viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1343246&start=120#start_here

I'm not sure of his method, but I do somewhat trust the source. Here were DRob's RAPM (and league rank) for those years:

'94: +7.31 (1st; +1.87 over the player in 2nd place)
'95: +7.42 (1st; +1.62 over the 2nd-place player)
'96: +5.89 (2nd; behind only Michael Jordan)


Anyway, good content, keep it coming.

[Dr Spaceman]

.

Great stuff Spaceman, just to clarify quick for me, you're supporting '95 as David's peak right?

Correct

[trex_8063]

Starting in the next rounds could you post the list to date in the opening post?

The list to date is in the opening post of the Interest/Metathinking thread (at the bottom); the names are a link to the threads in which they were inducted.

[RSCD3_]

1. 2009 LeBron

Excellent penetrator, 2009 LeBron was easily the GOAT when it comes to forwards in that regard. Great court vision and the dexterity / athleticism to fire off incredible passes in all directions. Very Good defense for a wing. Upped his game in the playoffs and Had a GOAT nominee series offensively vs The #1 defense after single handedly trashing the first two teams that faced him. The Team overachieved SRS wise in the RS sure but it also was incredibly clutch and spotted a 38-3 Home Record IIRC.

2. 1995 Robinson, Dr. Spaceman has swayed my mind, the passing gap isnt as high as compared to other bigs, and I like Robinson's scoring and defense more. He had a gargantuan load to carry on both ends and did a swell job of hamstringing a less than mediocre offensive cast that didnt even fit him particularly well. 36.9 PP100 on 60.2 TS% in the Regular season with Elitest of elite defense.

3. 1967 Wilt

When Wilt played the role of bill walton but super effective scoring 21 PP/100 at an astounding +14.4 TS% to the League Average and though it went down in the playoffs it was still 19PP100 +5.3 TS%, the scoring volume dip was slightly offset by a increase of about 1 assist per 100 possessions and he rebounded 5 more times per game FWIW. Intersting his defense seemed to take an uptick in activity as he was credited with more defensive win shares / 48 in the playoffs.

Wilt 67 RS .193 OWS/48, 0.092 DWS / 48
Wilt 67 PS .120 OWS/48, 0.134 DWS / 48

[theonlyclutch]

Spaceman, since you have a great in depth knowledge about Robinson, what's the difference between Robinson in the 95 and 96 seasons, I am thinking of 96 as Robinson 's peak due to his better showing in the playoffs, but I would like your take first.

[Quotatious]

I am thinking of 96 as Robinson 's peak due to his better showing in the playoffs, but I would like your take first.

Spaceman will give you his own answer, obviously, and I'm sure it'll be a damn good one, but I just want to say that Robinson didn't really have a better showing in the '96 playoffs compared to '95. His overall numbers for those playoffs are misleading, because he really wasn't consistent with his play - he destroyed the Suns in round one (they were very poor defensively, ranked 23rd of 29 teams), but then had a mediocre series against the Jazz (Utah was #8 in DRtg). Didn't even average 20 ppg or 10 rpg, and shot only 52.6% TS.

In '95, he had a mediocre series in the first round, but he faced Mutombo. Robinson's offensive game wasn't really that well-suited as a #1 offensive option in the postseason, to begin with, and then you factor in that he faced the DPOY at his position...Anyway, the Spurs still swept the Nuggets quite easily.

Then, he had a great series against the Lakers in the second round.

His performance in the WCF against Houston is underrated. He wasn't horrible by any means. I'd say better than he was in the '96 Utah series.

[Jim Naismith]

.

Great stuff Spaceman, just to clarify quick for me, you're supporting '95 as David's peak right?

Correct

Hakeem is another interesting one, and I’m not sure how to contextualize his offense. I don’t think his defense was on the level of David, and as I’ve explained David was a ridiculous offensive player in his own right. hakeem’s offensive impact looks terrible in his later years, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it wasn’t all THAT in his peak years.

I'm afraid I need more evidence to be convinced that 1995 Robinson > 1995 Hakeem.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hW4uXlRGAF0[/youtube]

[SideshowBob]

Thoughts on my preference for later Miami Lebron over earlier Miami Lebron, as I'm seeing 2012 being championed here.

Basketball ability wise, yes, 2014 LeBron was more diverse offensively but 12 LeBron still averaged 27 PPG on 61% TS. As an overall player I am taking 12 LeBron over 14 for an entire season. If we are talking about one game, I will probably go with 13 LeBron.

But this is completely misleading AND putting too much stock in the box-score. The way teams defended 12 Lebron and 14 Lebron was very different, 14 Lebron just demands SO MUCH more attention, and to boil it down to 27 on 61% TS vs. 27 on 65% TS makes the difference look a lot smaller than it actually is.

There is literally nothing on the offensive end that 2012 did better than 2014.

Among his 4 Miami seasons, here is how I would rank these abilities:

-Creating midrange jumpers off the dribble - 14/13, 11, 12
-Creating three point jumpers off the dribble - 14, 13, 11/12
-Getting to the basket off the dribble and collapsing the defense - 14, 13, Large Gap, 12, 11
-Low-post B2B basket creation - 14, Large Gap, 13, 12, 11
-Low-post B2B playmaking - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Low/Mid-post face-up/triple threat - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Creating midrange jumpers off the ball (off screens, off curls, via movement, etc.) - 14, 13, 12/11
-Hard/random cuts to the basket - 14, small gap, 13, 12, 11
-Spot-up 3 point shooting - 14/13, Large gap, 11, 12
-Finishing at the basket - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Transition finishing - 14/13, 12, 11
-Transition playmaking - roughly even
-PnR playmaking - 14/13, 12, 11
-PnR creation - 14/13, gap, 12, 11

Again, the kind of attention defenses put towards slowing down 2014 Lebron was just vastly different from 2012. Even if we're talking strictly box-score line, the kind of scoring numbers 2014 Lebron would have put up in the RS and PS if he had been defended the same way as 2012 was would have been mind-boggling (but of course, this would be idiotic on the part of defenses).

There's just a huge gulf in slashing ability between 11/12 and 13/14. His PnR mentality in 2011 and 2012 is all about patience, hope that defenders over commit and try to force rotations, take advantage of the attention that Wade (who when healthy was probably more disruptive as an offensive player in 2012 than Lebron was, but no longer had the stamina to sustain it) and Bosh draw, and swing it over to the shooters, almost never to get into the paint himself and force a collapse. In 2011, he's only getting into the paint when A.) there's a wide open lane, B.) in transition, and C.) starting to find seams off the ball for hard cuts (this starts happening later in the season), everything else is pull up in the midrange/from 3 occasionally (though this is phased out later in the season as he becomes more selective with his shots) and the occasional spot-up, otherwise very little off-ball activity. This is essentially his entire 2011 offensive game.

In 2012, we get more of the same, but he's added two additional tools to allow him to get to the basket. A.) He's begun fiddling in the post (but overall his post-game is highly overrated, he's got a half-decent right jump-hook, but largely he's reliant on baseline turnarounds over the right shoulder), and B.) he's shed a tiny bit of weight and has enough explosion to occasionally catch defenders off-guard in short triple-threat blowbys. Still not an elite slasher, and the larger problem is that outside of 10 feet, his jumpshot has actually regressed to pre-09 levels (his 3PT% is inflated this year due to selective shooting, he was a better outside shooter in 09/10/11/13/14/15). The improvements were enough that he's a slightly better offensive player than 2011, but he just DOES NOT have apply the kind of basket pressure that forces collapses and dynamic strategy implementation (drop the PnR, strongside paint overload, etc.) through his slashing that 13/14 do (as do 08/09/10/15).

No one defends him the way he was defended by Boston back in 08-10 and the way almost every sound team plays him now, because it was not necessary! There was no need to take the hazard of helping off the corners to try and wall of Lebron from getting to the basket at will because he was simply not going to be able to do it. Then, 13 Lebron comes around having shed more weight and regained much of his lost explosiveness and boom, he's getting to the basket at will and finishing damn near 80% when he gets there. The EV on a Lebron drive now skyrockets, as does the volume of these drives. With no help, this may be the deadliest consistent attack option from the wing that the league has ever seen, particularly considering the kind of shooting (Allen/Battier/Bosh/Miller/etc.) and movement (Wade/Allen) that Miami surrounded him with in 2013. He also makes major strides in his jumpshooting all-around, becoming an elite spot-up outside shooter, elite midrange shooter, and regaining his pullup 3 point shooting ability from pre-2012. The post-game is perhaps very slightly more refined, but the big change is that now he's able to utilize his quickness advantage to get to the basket as well.

And what was the result of all of this? Miami's offense and Lebron both look like the GOAT for like 50-60 games. The PS numbers are misleading, 2013 is absolutely a better postseason run than 2012. The decline in numbers from the RS is largely due to Wade's deteriorated health. His constant movement/cutting/curling action was absolutely CRUCIAL in driving the Miami offense, which dipped from like +10 in the 2nd half of the RS to +9ish in the postseason, but dropped quite dramatically in terms of ORTG. This seems like a small difference, but moving the needle from +9 to +10 is insanely hard to do, and a one-point shift at that level is like the equivalent of moving a 0 to a +3; simply put it takes a hell of an offensive player to pull that off, and Wade's decline can be blamed for that drop off. That's not to say I want to crucify Wade, health was clearly an issue, but this is what I would point to first for the seemingly "underwhelming" nature of that PS run.

Typically, when well coached defenses wall-off the paint, it is the corner shooters they will sag off of in order to reinforce the interior, and rely on sound rotations/recoveries to compensate. Lebron is typically able to make this strategy pay as he's so gifted at manipulating those rotations to the point where he's able to hit that corner guy in a manner that allows him to shoot it before a recovery. However, the SG in this situation that was providing spacing was not a 3pt shooter, it was Wade with his relentless middle/interior action. When he's playing healthy, this isn't a problem, in fact it adds a layer of dynamism to such an offense, beyond the conventional SG standing in the corner. BUT when he's NOT healthy, it screws the offense over to a greater degree; because his man can stay in the middle and not have to be concerned if/when he's left wide-open outside because he's not hitting that shot at a rate that justifies covering it as opposed to stopping Lebron ALL game long, so long as James/Wade shared the court.

San Antonio, Milwaukee, and Chicago ALL took advantage of this, and we saw the effect on Lebron's box-score line, it didn't look anything like the godly stats we were used to seeing from Jan-April. Yet there was really no major change in how Lebron was approaching the game (other than when he just started firing off from outside when defenders went under in games 4/7 against SAS). His pressure on those 3 defenses and his impact on Miami's offense was largely unchanged from that insane RS run, but the circumstances did not allow him to continue to pile up box-score numbers. HOWEVER, guess what team did not play him that way. Indiana, the best defensive team in the league in 2013. They relied on their strong perimeter personnel to simply play him straight-up, and hoped that Hibbert's strong rotations would deter his forays into the paint. Unsurprisingly, this didn't work. Lebron had his best box-score series of the 2013 run and the Indiana defense was essentially lit up.

At this point I've begun to stray off topic, so let me be clear as to what I am trying to illustrate. 2013 was a superior postseason run and performance by Lebron than 2012 was, and taking the box-score performance differences between the two as the opposite conclusion is plain and simple wrong. This is not a matter of preference, there are very real trackable things going on ON the court that justify this position. Simply put, the insane strategies that 3 of his 4 2013 opponents used to try and wall him off from the paint were only moderately successful (if at all) due to the declined performance of the surrounding cast, but were conducive to weaker looking stats. 2012 Lebron just lacked the abilities to even need such strategies being employed against him, and the fact that 2013 WAS needing such strategies is in itself a HUGE indicator of 2013's vast superiority.

Now, the reason this pertains to 2014 Lebron is because 2014 Lebron was ****ing even better than 2013 (talking about just offense here). He shed a bit more weight and became even more of a slashing threat (not as big of a jump as 12->13), but more importantly, his skill game was taken to a whole new level - the spot-up 3 point shooting was about the same but he got better at moving off the ball to get himself these shots. The pullup three-point shooting was even better than 13 (the 3P% decline from 13->14 is due to him taking more 3 pointers off the dribble, not a decline in shooting ability). But of course, the biggest improvement was the post-game. I've spoken verbatim on how I think his 12 post-up ability was overrated, and following the 13 Finals I think one of the first things I highlighted was the need for him to make the back-to-basket game something he was truly good at instead of just something he could say he had in his arsenal. And boy, did he do so; the improvement in footwork was just night-and-day - he's no Kobe or Hakeem, but there's a clear fluidity as opposed to the robotic-ness of years past, and that drop-step is just murderous. He improved his smarts down there as well; his ability to seal off his man and take advantage of fronting was deadly, getting good low-post positioning is underrated and he became one of the best at doing so. He also improved his playmaking sense from down there, as he got more comfortable/patient in drawing defenders and then making a quick pass-out for a perimeter swing (hockey assist) as opposed to trying to make a risky direct feed to the open man.

Quite simply put, these improvements meant that there was yet another gap in the pressure that 14 James applied to defenses vs. 13 Lebron, and we've already established the massive improvement that 13 was over the other Miami years. He's got the experience of the 13 finals to allow him to tackle teams that employ that kind of strategy, and notably, throughout the regular season, we saw a huge uptick in the amount of teams that were willing to cover him this way, and yet it barely mattered.

At this point, the offensive gap between 14 and 12 is vast, more than enough IMO to overcome the defensive advantage of 12. I've come to value his consistency on that end in 2012 quite a bit more than I did at the time, but I just can't brush aside the kind of heights that his 14 offense is touching. This is the only version of Lebron offensively that I'd consider on par with peak Jordan; other seasons come close (09/10/13), but they don't quite matchup with his insane 90-93 ability (though Lebron closes the gap through defense).

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Devil's advocate response:

I agree with most of this post but I can meet you guys in a middle ground. Why his results so outweighed what his actual basketball abilities were was because he started dabbling as a 4 and with the post game.

Teams reacted very poorly to both due to unfamiliarity and the fact that even 12 Bron with his diminished abilities is an insane mismatch at the 4. He improved faster than opponents could scout him in 13/14 but 12 Bron would have struggled against the schemes teams eventually developed to stop him at the 4 but got tons of easy opportunities because it was new wrinkle.

Some examples of what I mean.
-Teams disrespected Bron and switched a lot of Bron/ Battier pick and rolls precisely due to the reasons SSB is talking about. Bron is going to have an easier time beating Brandon Bass one on one than Paul Pierce.
-Well **** Bron outweighs the guy he is guarding by 40 pounds we should probably double team the post. Bron posts up to find open shooters more so than just shoot the baseline fadeaway. (Finals was an exaggerated example of this since Harden and Durant really couldn't handle Bron down there but most of his post ups were more to facilitate than to score).
-Wait a minute Bron is setting a screen???? How do I defend this???? PANIC!!. Then you just see him slip and get an easy layup.

Good coaching by Spo, compressed schedules due to the lockout, no practice means that teams never had a chance to really practice a scheme to stop this at all. And it was a dabble in the regular season but enough to get him a bit more efficiency/ box score stats. Then when they went all in due to Bosh's injury and Bron at the 4 ended up merking Indiana, Boston and OKC but teams hadn't caught up yet in terms of how to handle it.

That's my main theory on why results so outweighed his abilities that year. You can say Lebron took advantage of how defenses were guarding him/ unable to guard him at the 4 and that's why it was such an effective season and I wouldn't disagree with you. I'd also say that he was no where close to the ability he had in 09-10, 13-15.

[SideshowBob]

Elgee on Bird/Magic in the 2012 Peaks Project

Bird and Magic: I encountered a Larry Bird stat recently that floored me a bit. In 1988 (considered to be the end of Bird's prime, or slightly after his peak), the Celtics offensive rating with Kevin McHale in the lineup was...

117.1 (+9.4 to league).

Those would both be records for a full season (McHale played in 64 games). The highest team rating on record for a season is 115.6. (87 Lakers) The greatest distance from league average is +9.2 (04 Dal). The 87 Lakers were +7.3 FTR, and their team was a beacon of health all year.

Of course, most people consider 86 Bird's peak -- not sure how much they differentiate on offense but defensively he was a better team defender still. Well, McHale missed 17 games that year as well and the Celtics were a 110 (+3.1) offense during that time...and a +9.6 SRS team. Scott Wedman replaced McHale in the starting lineup and they just slid Bird to PF. What did Bird do there?

Averaged 27-12-8 57.4% TS 3.1 TOV 7.8 FTA/g 2.1 stls and 0.8 blks in those games. Ho hum stuff.

Now, you can see where the 87 Lakers offense parks itself in the playoffs: http://www.backpicks.com/2011/12/19/the-best-playoff-offenses-since-1980/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Right near the top of the 3-pt era at +10.5. For comparison, the 86 Celtics were +8.2 and the 85 Celtics were +8.5.

In short, I believe these to be the best passers AND two best offensive players in NBA history.

Bird is perhaps the highest portable offensive player there is: he's a GOAT-level off-the-ball player, not in the Reggie Miller mold, but ITO of movement and position through the post and out onto the wing for spacing. He's a ridiculously good rebounder because of this. He's a GOAT-level outlet passer if you want to run. He's a GOAT-level trailer in semi-transition. He's a great post player. He's great off picks. His passing is freakish. He can clearly flourish at either forward position. At his peak, he's still giving you quality defense with positioning and defensive rebounding (it wanes as his body wears down IMO).

For Magic, you give him the keys to the car and get out of the way. Although early Magic's career demonstrates how powerful his GOAT-level passing can be even when Norm Nixon was still handling the ball more. Peak Magic -- unarguably 1987 -- developed his shot so well that he was a major treat to score from the outside and from the line. People have a misconception that Magic was a transition-only offensive threat ("Showtime"), but he was deadly in the halfcourt because of his use of screens and mismatches against smaller players. He is virtually un-guardable, calls his own number efficiently and like Bird, it seems as if he can drop into any system and help "run" the offense.

Mostly due to shot selection, I consider Magic's offensive peak to slightly higher than Bird's. The defensive difference (Magic is a minor liability) makes the peaks very hard for to distinguish. I'll be looking for arguments to help me decide one way or another (do people have these peaks clearly separated in their minds??)

There's a Gideon post I'm recalling as well, haven't quite found it yet.

[SideshowBob]

Following the top 3 here's how my current ballot shapes out looking at the next 10ish spots

Bird
Hakeem
Wilt
Russell

Small gap

Duncan
Garnett
Walton (would be higher if not for health)

Small gap

Magic
Robinson
Erving
Jabbar

IMO these three groups are within a point of each other (!!), so even saying the lines between are razor-thin is a bit of an understatement. Within the groups I'm hardly even concerned with differentiation.

The next ten after that are really a bit more interesting. I'm curious as to how much of a presence the 14 and 15 seasons are going to have amongst the voting pool. I think the recent versions Durant, Westbrook, Curry, Harden, and maybe even Davis should be making serious noise by that point, we're in the midst of a really talented crop blooming.

[thizznation]

LeBron - '09 Hyper Athletic Wing, extreme motor, great ball handler. Easier for him to get his "fingerprints" on the game offensively as he is going to be initiating the offense himself. On defense he isn't going to have as a good of impact as some of the Big Men that are next in line but I believe LeBron's overall offense is a bigger gap than his defense when compared to them. Very clutch offensively and defensively.

Wilt '67 - Out of the remaining Big Men I still believe 1967 Wilt has the best all around skillset when taking into account Scoring, Rebounding, Passing, and Defense.

KAJ '80 - This is an older KAJ but I think it was when he was at his best. David Robinson's regular season per 100 possessions are above Kareem but Kareem wins in the post season. Kareem '80 had a pretty epic post season, he torched it on offense with 36.4 points per 100 possessions with a TS% of .611! David Robinson '95 is sitting at 32.6 points per 100 possessions in the post season with a TS% of .536.

KAJ was also a force on defense as well. Their team ended up being a mediocre defense but if you look at the Big Men rotation on that 1980 Laker team, it looks pretty abysmal. They did have rookie Magic Johnson and Michael Cooper but overall I think that team wasn't that good defensively and KAJ took on a large load. KAJ had 4.4 blocks per 100 possessions during the post season.

Official Ballot

1. LeBron 2009
2. Wilt 1967
3. Kareem 1980




Next on the list
My next guys on my list are Duncan, Robinson, and Hakeem in no certain order quite yet. I'm gonna throw out 1976 Dr J out there. It might be a little early for him still but I would like to see how people feel about him.

[Nbafanatic]

I am thinking of 96 as Robinson 's peak due to his better showing in the playoffs, but I would like your take first.

Spaceman will give you his own answer, obviously, and I'm sure it'll be a damn good one, but I just want to say that Robinson didn't really have a better showing in the '96 playoffs compared to '95. His overall numbers for those playoffs are misleading, because he really wasn't consistent with his play - he destroyed the Suns in round one (they were very poor defensively, ranked 23rd of 29 teams), but then had a mediocre series against the Jazz (Utah was #8 in DRtg). Didn't even average 20 ppg or 10 rpg, and shot only 52.6% TS.

In '95, he had a mediocre series in the first round, but he faced Mutombo. Robinson's offensive game wasn't really that well-suited as a #1 offensive option in the postseason, to begin with, and then you factor in that he faced the DPOY at his position...Anyway, the Spurs still swept the Nuggets quite easily.

Then, he had a great series against the Lakers in the second round.

His performance in the WCF against Houston is underrated. He wasn't horrible by any means. I'd say better than he was in the '96 Utah series.

I agree with this. The issue about Robinson being the third peak of all time is putting him above Hakeem on this 95 season, when even Hakeem's peak is more suitable to be 93 or 94. The Spurs had some tough breaks on the WCF 95 against the Rockets, they lost game 1 much because of one of Rodman's antics, not listening to a timeout huddle, for instance. The Spurs had more of a motion offense, therefore Robinson worked a lot as a decoy on their offense, when the Rockets were more pragmatic posting up Hakeem a lot, and Robinson faced the dream with single coverage most of the time, as the Rockets always used as their Modus Operandi to bring double teams against the centers, to preserve Hakeem more, using more rotation and scrambling defenses. Anyway, even if we can attenuate a little for Robinson in this series, and it's true, he had a good series, only Olajuwon was fantastic, and there lies the problem... Is very hard to put Robinson above Hakeem this year.