Going Forward, Who Do You Take: Drummond or Gobert?

[MotownMadness]

Drummond is more physically dominant. While Gobert is clearly the better defender Drummond still has some potential on that end is well. Drummond is still a more dominant presence in the paint though. As the year went on he did look more comfortable with the ball in the post and that hook shot started to become more reliable. He also has double the usage rate of Gobert and Goberts FG% also took a hit as he took on a bigger role post AllStar break.

Drummond post AllStar break (32.4 mpg)
16.1ppg, 14.7rpg, 2.2bpg, 54 fg%, 36 ft%

Gobert post All-Star break (34.4 mpg)
11.1ppg, 13.4rpg, 2.6bpg, 58 fg%, 63 ft%

Drummond has to gain more awareness defensively but like most bigs it usually takes 4-6 years before they really start to shine. This season will be a big telling point to how he's going to develop on that end. But still I can't ever see Gobert being the type of dominant presence Drummond is in the paint on offense.

[whitehops]

It isn't though, especially in this day and age where a big's offensive value goes far beyond them putting the ball in the basket. drummond is one of the premier bigs in the league in the pick and roll, and the pistons run the most high screens in the league (if i'm not mistaken).

You've missed my point. Either you didn't read all of what I said because you're in a hurry to defend Drummond, or my point didn't come across.

Drummond has value. He isn't a refined offensive force and he isn't likely ever to be one. If what he's providing you offensively is good screens and below-average scoring efficiency (which is what he'll provide if he's only shooting 50% FG and 50% FT), then he's not worth the effort made to funnel him the ball for iso sets. If he shows this year that he can actually score at an efficient rate, then such elevated usage becomes sensible again, but if he repeats what he did last year, it's a waste of time because he's ineffective at most things other than oops and put-backs and shots rolling to the rim.

i read all of what you said and to be honest i'm confused where this 50% from the field is coming from. if it's from my "closer to 50 than 60%" comment then i should clarify by thinking it'll be more in the 53-55 range next year than the 56-58 range.

that said, they're not funnelling the ball to him for post isos on a regular basis. the pistons will still initiate their offense off of high screens, and drummond will still see a lot of alley-oops and other close set-ups. the post touches drummond will likely see are when teams have been rotating which allows drummond to get deeper position or to exploit an advantageous matchup.

offensively a lot of people write drummond off as another deandre jordan offensively, whereas he has already shown he can be a lot more than that. he was used to playing face-up in high school and it takes a while to learn how to play with your back to the basket, it's more technically demanding.

here's a short video of him from high school that illustrates what i mean by his transition to playing with his back to the basket, he plays almost like a SF/PF:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXB6vc5Z_A4[/youtube]

[cyclix]

Drummond moves too mechanical offensively to be any real threat on that end. And, he has no range. He reminds of a poor mans Dwight Howard.

[MotownMadness]

Drummond moves too mechanical offensively to be any real threat on that end. And, he has no range. He reminds of a poor mans Dwight Howard.

True but he's still a big threat on that end. If you don't account for him at all times he will destroy you on that end. Even with his limitations on offense he's still a bigger offensive threat then most centers in the league.

[tsherkin]

i read all of what you said and to be honest i'm confused where this 50% from the field is coming from. if it's from my "closer to 50 than 60%" comment then i should clarify by thinking it'll be more in the 53-55 range next year than the 56-58 range.

Right, well that makes a difference. I inferred the 50% from your comment because I had been talking about him recovering his finishing rate at 0-3 feet from the first two seasons of his career and you countered that with your hesitation about that happening.

That said, at 55%, 12 FGA/g, .450 FTr and 50% FT, now you're talking about a ~ 55% TS player, and that's a little different. +5% FG is not a small thing, and as long as they keep his shooting volume relatively contained and to sets that make sense, that's... OK. Replaceable, but OK until they're trying to eat into a lead.

that said, they're not funnelling the ball to him for post isos on a regular basis. the pistons will still initiate their offense off of high screens, and drummond will still see a lot of alley-oops and other close set-ups. the post touches drummond will likely see are when teams have been rotating which allows drummond to get deeper position or to exploit an advantageous matchup.

SUre, that's classic contemporary usage of a big who hasn't established that he's worth isolation possessions. It's the right way to use them, and it's what made Dwight Howard a worthwhile offensive focus in Orlando.

offensively a lot of people write drummond off as another deandre jordan offensively, whereas he has already shown he can be a lot more than that. he was used to playing face-up in high school and it takes a while to learn how to play with your back to the basket, it's more technically demanding.

No it isn't, leastwise not from a scoring perspective. It's more physical, I'll grant you that, but the sequence and variety of moves you use is quite a bit simpler, particularly with dominant physical tools. The real problem is that he has no touch away from the rim and can't make his free throws.

Over the first 30 seconds of that video, nothing of consequence happens. Then there's a nice and tight spin to a step back J that he's never going to use ever in his NBA career, particularly against opponents with legitimate NBA size and against anything other than that half-hearted crap trap. That's a turnover in the NBA, almost for sure. Still, the handle was impressive. That said, I saw Shaq do similar things at Cole. I've seen Duncan and Yao exhibit surprising dribble prowess in NBA games under certain circumstances. It's not THAT unusual, particularly if they had a later growth spurt or still like to play recreational ball, etc. No sane coach is going to let him go after it face up, and realistically, asking him to be an iso post guy this late when he hasn't really got the handle of it is not likely to turn around and be that interesting. Asking him to do the PnR thing a lot is a whole other story, of course. And of course, that's a highlight video, so it's all best-case stuff where everything worked.

Distilled, I don't think that video means much, because it's basically the same stuff we saw from guys like Anthony Randolph or Eddie Griffin and so forth. The class of competition really makes a difference.

Drummond has his value, but if we're talking about offensive influence, we're really talking about a guy with a significant ceiling. He's not 19; he's gonna be 22, and he's going into his fourth NBA season. He's got 223 games under his belt already, almost 6,400 NBA minutes. That's not small. With him, his offensive value is directly related to his raw FG%, because he has no spacing effect, he is incompetent at the line to an extent he will almost surely never overcome (having exhibited no development there at all) and he has a fairly limited skill set which, even with improvement, doesn't make him a terribly viable prominent weapon.

This isn't a rook we're talking about; most of his weaknesses haven't changed, and because he's so useless at the line, he NEEDS to have a wickedly-elevated FG% or offensive possessions going to him are of exceedingly limited value on balance. That's why I was making a fuss about his specific FG% threshold, because it's what makes him sink or swim as a player. He can screen and roll and crash the offensive glass without significant volume of touches, while still influencing the offense positively that way. The real trick is, can he keep himself above that minimum threshold where it remains worthwhile to involve him more than you see of DAJ, Chandler or Gobert.

[tsherkin]

True but he's still a big threat on that end. If you don't account for him at all times he will destroy you on that end. Even with his limitations on offense he's still a bigger offensive threat then most centers in the league.

Sure, he doesn't suck right, so there's going to be a point where you can't just up and LEAVE him. In a typical season, if you let him get the ball inside of maybe 3-5 feet, you're screwed. He's a big boy with long arms and lots of power; that's a dunk, waiting to happen. Yeah, you can foul him, but that's going to add up.

He's useful, but the direction this conversation has taken is more about his upper bound as an offensive player. You don't want him as your first or second option is the main thing, and that he has a cap in usage where his value starts to drop off considerably.

[MotownMadness]

True but he's still a big threat on that end. If you don't account for him at all times he will destroy you on that end. Even with his limitations on offense he's still a bigger offensive threat then most centers in the league.

Sure, he doesn't suck right, so there's going to be a point where you can't just up and LEAVE him. In a typical season, if you let him get the ball inside of maybe 3-5 feet, you're screwed. He's a big boy with long arms and lots of power; that's a dunk, waiting to happen. Yeah, you can foul him, but that's going to add up.

He's useful, but the direction this conversation has taken is more about his upper bound as an offensive player. You don't want him as your first or second option is the main thing, and that he has a cap in usage where his value starts to drop off considerably.

No he won't be but do you really want Gobert as a 1st or 2nd option? Have to keep a open mind with Drummonds season last year as it was a lost season and a development year for him and all things considered he did show improvement offensively. He can always go back to a 60 fg% Center later on if that's what we choose but why not try to develop his game as more then that as he's only 22. All he really needs is that more consistent hook shot, touches and a slight increase in fg% to put him around a 18-20ppg, 14rpg, 2bpg type of center. He doesn't need this huge offensive versatility to be a 20ppg scorer because he is so big and athletic and already the best offensive rebounder in the game.

He's already shown he can give you around 10-13ppg off nothing but oops and put backs so just a few more touches and consistency will really elevate his scoring. He did avg 16 ppg post all star break with better efficiency so it will be interesting to see if he can build on that.

He's still in the top 9 of qualified centers in FGA, FG%, PPG, Steals, blocks and led in double doubles last season even given his poor start to the season. So I think next season with a better start to the season you should see a nice improvement.

[tsherkin]

No he won't be but do you really want Gobert as a 1st or 2nd option?

Surely not. As I said earlier in response to whitehops, I don't think Gobert is much better on offense than Drummond, it's mainly an issue of FT%; I think the separation between the two comes on the basis of Gobert's defense, not his current or potential future offensive value.

All he really needs is that more consistent hook shot, touches and a slight increase in fg% to put him around a 18-20ppg, 14rpg, 2bpg type of center.

The odds of him becoming a 20 ppg scorer are fairly limited, if only because of the mixture of volume and FG% necessary to counteract his FT%, and the comparative ease with which one can find reasonably efficient volume offense from the perimeter. The real limitation here is that pushing the ball to him that much isn't a good idea at this point. Similar volume compared to last year seems sensible, if only as a way to evaluate if he took away anything useful from last season, but as a volume scorer, he blows. He's way, way better in the types of sets whitehops was discussing, and in a more limited capacity. He's basically the best offensive rebounder in the league, and that's not a small thing, but he's not a guy you want floating a significant proportion of your shot volume at this stage.

Post break, he was still scoring at 51.8% TS, which is really bad. His offensive value was coming primarily from the mixture of low rebounds and wicked offensive rebounding, coupled with the utility of his broad shoulders screening for his teammates. Technically, January aside, he was averaging ~ 16 ppg from December onward, not just after mid-February, and he averaged 14.7 ppg from November 21st forward as well. The volume was there, he just was blowing really hard at scoring efficiently because his finishing around the rim had dropped off so much and he was so useless away from that region. He still shot 52.9% from the floor from November 21st onward, it's just that it meant so much less with his horrendous FT shooting(38.8% FT in the same stretch). 51.6% TS, 110 ORTG (which is actually quite good, but again more to do with ORB% and TOV%, both of which were strengths, especially the former).

[Kabookalu]

ATG defender? is this the same Gobert who was schooled by a 35-year-old Pau Gasol dropping 40pts on him?

I think the value of an anchoring big isn't as valuable these days anymore as the prevalence of small ball, see the NBA finals, both big men were played out of the game due to the inability to guard on switch in the perimeter

Small ball doesn't mean that your big men have to be 6'8, they have to be mobile and quick enough to contain the perimeter. Gobert's mobility is miles ahead of Bogut's so small ball won't at all be a problem for him.

[MotownMadness]

No he won't be but do you really want Gobert as a 1st or 2nd option?

Surely not. As I said earlier in response to whitehops, I don't think Gobert is much better on offense than Drummond, it's mainly an issue of FT%; I think the separation between the two comes on the basis of Gobert's defense, not his current or potential future offensive value.

All he really needs is that more consistent hook shot, touches and a slight increase in fg% to put him around a 18-20ppg, 14rpg, 2bpg type of center.

The odds of him becoming a 20 ppg scorer are fairly limited, if only because of the mixture of volume and FG% necessary to counteract his FT%, and the comparative ease with which one can find reasonably efficient volume offense from the perimeter. The real limitation here is that pushing the ball to him that much isn't a good idea at this point. Similar volume compared to last year seems sensible, if only as a way to evaluate if he took away anything useful from last season, but as a volume scorer, he blows. He's way, way better in the types of sets whitehops was discussing, and in a more limited capacity. He's basically the best offensive rebounder in the league, and that's not a small thing, but he's not a guy you want floating a significant proportion of your shot volume at this stage.

Post break, he was still scoring at 51.8% TS, which is really bad. His offensive value was coming primarily from the mixture of low rebounds and wicked offensive rebounding, coupled with the utility of his broad shoulders screening for his teammates. Technically, January aside, he was averaging ~ 16 ppg from December onward, not just after mid-February, and he averaged 14.7 ppg from November 21st forward as well. The volume was there, he just was blowing really hard at scoring efficiently because his finishing around the rim had dropped off so much and he was so useless away from that region. He still shot 52.9% from the floor from November 21st onward, it's just that it meant so much less with his horrendous FT shooting(38.8% FT in the same stretch). 51.6% TS, 110 ORTG (which is actually quite good, but again more to do with ORB% and TOV%, both of which were strengths, especially the former).

I accept Drummond will never be this go to offensive option. He's a big ass center who's job is to try and own the paint but it's actually his motor that bothers me more then anything else. When I watch Drummond I see him more as underperforming then I do as him being some limited player. I've seen him come out and destroy the Bulls front court with 26 and 26 and then come out the next night and hardly get 10 and 10 against some scrub. He has to realize he's bigger and stronger then his competition and dominate everynight.

[tsherkin]

I accept Drummond will never be this go to offensive option. He's a big ass center who's job is to try and own the paint but it's actually his motor that bothers me more then anything else. When I watch Drummond I see him more as underperforming then I do as him being some limited player. I've seen him come out and destroy the Bulls front court with 26 and 26 and then come out the next night and hardly get 10 and 10 against some scrub. He has to realize he's bigger and stronger then his competition and dominate everynight.

He'll be fine. There's no question that he'll settle into being a very good player. I'm looking more for defensive development than anything else, though, because he doesn't really have quite the right tools to dominate just from the low block, and he doesn't have the refined skills to extend his volume too much. But he can be a very effective finisher within a limited-scope role, and he's one of the best rebounders we've seen in the 3pt era, with loads of defensive potential. So we'll see how that goes.

FTR, I curse every day that the idiot Raptors drafted Terrence Ross instead of Drummond; just because I don't think he'll be The Next doesn't mean I don't appreciate

[MotownMadness]

I accept Drummond will never be this go to offensive option. He's a big ass center who's job is to try and own the paint but it's actually his motor that bothers me more then anything else. When I watch Drummond I see him more as underperforming then I do as him being some limited player. I've seen him come out and destroy the Bulls front court with 26 and 26 and then come out the next night and hardly get 10 and 10 against some scrub. He has to realize he's bigger and stronger then his competition and dominate everynight.

He'll be fine. There's no question that he'll settle into being a very good player. I'm looking more for defensive development than anything else, though, because he doesn't really have quite the right tools to dominate just from the low block, and he doesn't have the refined skills to extend his volume too much. But he can be a very effective finisher within a limited-scope role, and he's one of the best rebounders we've seen in the 3pt era, with loads of defensive potential. So we'll see how that goes.

FTR, I curse every day that the idiot Raptors drafted Terrence Ross instead of Drummond; just because I don't think he'll be The Next doesn't mean I don't appreciate

Strangely enough though his defensive awareness and overall impact on that side looked crazy promising his rookie year. Guards could hardly separate away from him on the perimeter even. IDK why he's lost that sharp awareness he was showing but hopefully he shows it again this season and takes the next step as a rim protector cause I agree that's what is really most important for him right now to actually result in wins.

[tsherkin]

Strangely enough though his defensive awareness and overall impact on that side looked crazy promising his rookie year. Guards could hardly separate away from him on the perimeter even. IDK why he's lost that sharp awareness he was showing but hopefully he shows it again this season and takes the next step as a rim protector cause I agree that's what is really most important for him right now to actually result in wins.

WOuld be nice to see. I'm always a proponent of good big development. It's why, despite arguing vociferously over his actual impact, I'm totally rooting for DeMarcus Cousins to rip apart the league.

[Brooklyn_34]

Here's my opinion (no, I am not using stats LOL):

If I had to pick a center for today, the answer is Gobert---and easily.

My feeling about Drummond is this: if he ever gets his **** together, he can be a dominant center and overall better than Gobert.

The size is there. The ability is there. He can become a 20+ plus scorer. He is too big to move from the block. And he is actually very mobile for someone his size.

I think Gobert will always be a better defender than Andre, though.

I accept Drummond will never be this go to offensive option. He's a big ass center who's job is to try and own the paint but it's actually his motor that bothers me more then anything else. When I watch Drummond I see him more as underperforming then I do as him being some limited player. I've seen him come out and destroy the Bulls front court with 26 and 26 and then come out the next night and hardly get 10 and 10 against some scrub. He has to realize he's bigger and stronger then his competition and dominate everynight.

I agree with this.

[Prez]

One FIBA game does not sum up a player's game. Pau was a man on a mission in GOD mode that game. Gobert didn't have his best night by any stretch but if we're going to single out games like this, we could easily do the same for Drummond. It's just not an accurate way of judging these players.

I love Drummond as a prospect, but we need to acknowledge how massive the gap is defensively at the moment. We're not talking about just a good defender like a Timo Mozgov or a Kosta Koufos in Gobert. Gobert took Utah from literally one of the worst defenses in the game to arguably the best once he got the starting spot and big minutes. It happening right after the AS break. Before the AS break, Utah had the 27th ranked defense, a 106.1 DRTG. After the AS break they had the #1 defense, 94.2 DRTG...4.8 points better than #2 Memphis and 11.9 points better than their own pre-AS break defense.. And the difference between them at #1 and Memphis at #2 in that span was bigger than the difference between #2 Memphis and #18 New Orleans. We're talking about the most dominant defensive force in the league, and potentially one of the most dominant of all time down the road.

And he's only 23. When we talk about Drummond's immense potential (which I agree with by the way), it almost seems like people forget that Gobert is only a year older.

[MalonesElbows]

Gobert. Reach is king for centers and Drummond's is just a pedestrian 9'1"
Drummond has awesome hops for his size but with that horrid free throw stroke and mechanical feet might not ever be able to take advantage of it.

[tsherkin]

Gobert. Reach is king for centers and Drummond's is just a pedestrian 9'1"

Food for thought: MAX recorded reach at the Combine has been 9'8. Of the 16 guys with 9'6 or higher, 9 of them were 7-foot or taller WITHOUT shoes. Drummond was 6'9.75" without shoes at the Combine, and that means his 7'6.25" wingspan was roughly +8.5". You're also selling his reach short by a half-inch, since it was 9'1.5". He's got broad shoulders, which contribute some to the difference in his wingspan versus, say, DeAndre Jordan's (who is the same height without shoes but has a 9'5.5" standing reach), but Drummond still has excellent arm length.

Noooot the thing you really want to be using to attack Drummond. He's never going to have a problem based on his wingspan/standing reach. His issues are skill-based, but he still has all sorts of defensive potential and is one of the best rebounders we've seen in the 3pt era.

[KD35Brah]

Drummond is more physically dominant. While Gobert is clearly the better defender Drummond still has some potential on that end is well. Drummond is still a more dominant presence in the paint though. As the year went on he did look more comfortable with the ball in the post and that hook shot started to become more reliable. He also has double the usage rate of Gobert and Goberts FG% also took a hit as he took on a bigger role post AllStar break.

Drummond post AllStar break (32.4 mpg)
16.1ppg, 14.7rpg, 2.2bpg, 54 fg%, 36 ft%

Gobert post All-Star break (34.4 mpg)
11.1ppg, 13.4rpg, 2.6bpg, 58 fg%, 63 ft%

Drummond has to gain more awareness defensively but like most bigs it usually takes 4-6 years before they really start to shine. This season will be a big telling point to how he's going to develop on that end. But still I can't ever see Gobert being the type of dominant presence Drummond is in the paint on offense.

Gobert:
61% TS
120 Ortg

Drummond:
52% TS
11 Ortg

How exactly is Drummond a dominant presence in the paint on offense? On the other hand Gobbert is a dominant presence in the paint on defense considering that he is the best defensive anchor in the league.

[MotownMadness]

Drummond is more physically dominant. While Gobert is clearly the better defender Drummond still has some potential on that end is well. Drummond is still a more dominant presence in the paint though. As the year went on he did look more comfortable with the ball in the post and that hook shot started to become more reliable. He also has double the usage rate of Gobert and Goberts FG% also took a hit as he took on a bigger role post AllStar break.

Drummond post AllStar break (32.4 mpg)
16.1ppg, 14.7rpg, 2.2bpg, 54 fg%, 36 ft%

Gobert post All-Star break (34.4 mpg)
11.1ppg, 13.4rpg, 2.6bpg, 58 fg%, 63 ft%

Drummond has to gain more awareness defensively but like most bigs it usually takes 4-6 years before they really start to shine. This season will be a big telling point to how he's going to develop on that end. But still I can't ever see Gobert being the type of dominant presence Drummond is in the paint on offense.

Gobert:
61% TS
120 Ortg

Drummond:
52% TS
11 Ortg

How exactly is Drummond a dominant presence in the paint on offense? On the other hand Gobbert is a dominant presence in the paint on defense considering that he is the best defensive anchor in the league.

IDK, he leads the league in double doubles, offensive rebounds and was avg 17ppg and 17rpg while giving us a 12-3 record with a top 5 offense and defense right after ditching Josh Smith, Then Jennings went down and we made another big roster move acquiring Jackson which he then went on to avg 16 and 15 in his 28 games with him.

Those ortg numbers are nice but it is also a team stat in a lot of ways and Gobert has a better supporting offensive and defensive cast around him. Pistons had nothing like a Hayward or another defender like Favors to play with him last year. Drummond also had a 60%TS along with a 121 ORTG the prior season when he wasn't asked to create his own offense.

Ever since blocks and rebounds were both recorded, only three players have ever grabbed at least 21 percent of possible rebounds, blocked at least 6 percent of the shots while playing at least 1,000 minutes in a season: Marcus Camby in 2005-06, Drummond in 2013-14 and Hassan Whiteside last season.

[princeofpalace]

Drummond is more physically dominant. While Gobert is clearly the better defender Drummond still has some potential on that end is well. Drummond is still a more dominant presence in the paint though. As the year went on he did look more comfortable with the ball in the post and that hook shot started to become more reliable. He also has double the usage rate of Gobert and Goberts FG% also took a hit as he took on a bigger role post AllStar break.

Drummond post AllStar break (32.4 mpg)
16.1ppg, 14.7rpg, 2.2bpg, 54 fg%, 36 ft%

Gobert post All-Star break (34.4 mpg)
11.1ppg, 13.4rpg, 2.6bpg, 58 fg%, 63 ft%

Drummond has to gain more awareness defensively but like most bigs it usually takes 4-6 years before they really start to shine. This season will be a big telling point to how he's going to develop on that end. But still I can't ever see Gobert being the type of dominant presence Drummond is in the paint on offense.

Gobert:
61% TS
120 Ortg

Drummond:
52% TS
11 Ortg

How exactly is Drummond a dominant presence in the paint on offense? On the other hand Gobbert is a dominant presence in the paint on defense considering that he is the best defensive anchor in the league.

IDK, he leads the league in double doubles, offensive rebounds and was avg 17ppg and 17rpg while giving us a 12-3 record with a top 5 offense and defense right after ditching Josh Smith, Then Jennings went down and we made another big roster move acquiring Jackson which he then went on to avg 16 and 15 in his 28 games with him.

Those ortg numbers are nice but it is also a team stat in a lot of ways and Gobert has a better supporting offensive and defensive cast around him. Pistons had nothing like a Hayward or another defender like Favors to play with him last year. Drummond also had a 60%TS along with a 121 ORTG the prior season when he wasn't asked to create his own offense.

Ever since blocks and rebounds were both recorded, only three players have ever grabbed at least 21 percent of possible rebounds, blocked at least 6 percent of the shots while playing at least 1,000 minutes in a season: Marcus Camby in 2005-06, Drummond in 2013-14 and Hassan Whiteside last season.

Drummond did not average 17-17 during our post Josh Smith streak, he actually averaged 13 points and 14 boards. Right now, Drummond is an elite rebounder, average defender and below average offensive player. Sure he has room to grow but not as much as he had while he was a 19 year old rookie.

Drummond will be a solid center for years to come but the odds that he makes the defensive impact that Gobert already does is slim to none IMO. You can talk up Drummond's size and athleticism all you want but at the end of the day, Andre often plays smaller than he is, takes playos off and has a habit of playing soft.