Peaks Project #14

[trex_8063]

RealGM Greatest Player Peaks of All-Time List
1. Michael Jordan ('91--unanimous)
2. Shaquille O'Neal ('00--unanimous)
3. Lebron James ('13--non-unanimous ('09, '12))
4. Wilt Chamberlain ('67--non-unanimous ('64))
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('77--non-unanimous ('71, '72))
6. Hakeem Olajuwon ('94--non-unanimous ('93))
7. Tim Duncan ('03--non-unanimous ('02))
8. Kevin Garnett ('04--unanimous)
9. Bill Russell ('65--non-unanimous ('62, '64))
10. Magic Johnson ('87---unanimous)
11. Larry Bird ('86---non-unanimous ('87, '88))
12. David Robinson ('95---non-unanimous ('94, '96))
13. Bill Walton ('77---unanimous)
14. ?????


Go at it, guys. Pretty sure Oscar's my top ballot. Mostly likely going with Durant and Dr. J for 2nd and 3rd (though am considering others).
Target time for this thread to end is Tuesday morning.

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[PaulieWal]

Ballot #1 - Wade 09

I think this was Wade's best season overall when you compare the offensive and defensive load he carried. The team he carried also had almost no consistency and I think was clearly one of the worst supporting casts for a star ever. I don't even need to say anything, I will just leave this here (full credit to SSB):

Spoiler:

Dwyane Wade had a stretch in 2009 like no other:

2/18/2009 - 3/14/2009 (11 G)
37.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 10.4 APG, 2.9SPG, 1.4 BPG, 55.3 FG%, 65.7% TS

Yeah this one is the hardest to top IMO.

Wade 2009, late February-March scoring streak (34.7 GameScore!?)

Code: Select all

G    MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TS%    ORTG   GmSc
11   41.5  38.3   6.3   10.4    3.0    1.3   .654    130    34.7

That has to be the best stretch so far. That's just an unreal 11 game stretch. I've seen Jordan and James with the most extended streaks of a 28+ game score, but this is phenomenal.

There's an 8 game run in there that looks like this

Code: Select all

G    MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TS%    ORTG   GmSc
8    42.5  39.9   6.9   10.4    3.6    1.5   .655    131    36.9

He shoots 50% from 3, puts up an AST% of 48.7%, a USG% of 37.1%, a STL% of 4.5%, and a BLK% of 3.1%, all while putting up 40/7/10/4/2 on 66% TS no less

Here's a more detailed look at that stretch. Includes Miami's performance shifts, 4Factors, and Wade's Box lines.

----------------------------------

2009 Miami Heat

[spoiler]Full Season

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
89.3     108.5    108.3    0.26    0.24    0.49   +0.5     0.0    +0.6

Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
89.2     107.3    107.0    0.29   -0.14   -0.25   -1.0    -1.0    +0.1

Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
91.4     114.6    114.4    0.15    2.07    3.38   +7.5    +5.0    +2.5

Four Factors

Spoiler:

Full Season

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       50.0%      24.6%       11.6%      .212
Defense       50.1%      72.9%       14.0%      .251

Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       49.6%      24.5%       11.7%      .212
Defense       49.5%      72.9%       14.2%      .249

Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       52.0%      24.5%       11.0%      .234
Defense       53.8%      72.2%       14.4%      .267

Dwyane Wade

Spoiler:

Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.6  30.2  5.0   7.5   40.3%   3.4   11.6%   57.4% +3.0%   36.2%  115
N/A   31.6  5.3   7.8   N/A     3.6   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.0  28.8  4.9   6.9   37.8%   3.3   11.4%   55.6% +1.2%   36.5%  111.6
N/A   30.6  7.3   8.0   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

41.4  37.2  5.9  10.4   50.3%   3.9   12.2%   65.7% +11.3%  36.0%  131
N/A   35.3  5.6   9.9   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

----------------------------------

Miami was able to run a +7.5 offense with Wade playing out of his mind like that.

Ballot #2 - Erving 76
Credit to Q here for driving the Erving train. I think people are being overly dismissive of the ABA and while I don't think he was ever a defensive anchor his offense was clearly what you would expect from your wing superstars and he topped in 76 with a BPM of 10.1. Winning a title that year was just the cherry on the top and he played extremely well in the playoffs as well.

Ballot #3 - CP 08

Am I crazy or did CP have even a better RS in 09? The only difference is that in 08 his playoffs were on another level too with 12.3 BPM and nearly 31 PER. His defense wasn't as good as it is today but he clearly had the feel for the game and in some ways I think he didn't play as controlled offensively as he plays now.


PS. I am very interested in some of the Wade vs. Curry vs. KD vs. Kobe opinions. I feel very strongly here that Wade had a superior peak though the gap isn't huge by any means.

[bastillon]

It would be very hard for me to understand Dr J over Oscar.

Oscar was leading top offenses every year, and in multiple team environments. Sometimes he was scoring 30 ppg, sometimes he was just a distributor like in Milwaukee. Dr J is highly dependent on team structure to make impact. As we have seen in the 70s, his impact varied year to year by a significant margin depending on his role and fit of other players. I see Oscar as much more portable player due to succeeding in multiple team environements and delivering results every single time.

Oscar was a much better offensive player in general. People really underrate just how hard it is to lead top offense every year with mediocre supporting cast. This is what happened in the 60s. When Oscar had great supporting cast in Milwaukee, he was leading potentially GOAT offensive team (along with 87 Lakers, 92 Bulls, 07 Suns). Dr J never had that kind of success. His teams were often middle of the pack offensively. I can hardly see a perimeter player making Oscar-level impact without leading top offense every year.

Dr J was also much less consistent. There were many playoff series where he underperformed. In some of them, he was completely dominated by his counterpart (Marques Johnson and Bird come to mind). Admittedly, this mostly happened in the 80s but he just never showed that he could dominate top competition consistently. I know he dumpstered Bobby Jones but other than that, his record vs top competition is mediocre for an all-time great. Oscar was delivering year after year against the very best defenders of his generation (West, Frazier, KC Jones) who were backed by great defensive bigs (Wilt, Reed, Russell). Oscar never had Dr J's letdowns in the playoffs.

I'm very surprised that Kobe hasn't been mentioned yet. To me his peak was 08 where he led one of the best offenses ever (08 Lakers after Gasol's trade had insane offensive efficiency other that vs. Celtics). MVP, consistency, was okay on defense that year, great leader and put incredible amount of pressure on the defense. Unlike Dr J, did not have many weaknesses. Erving had a mediocre jumpshot and this is why he was generally much weaker in HCO.

[bastillon]

Ballot #3 - CP 08

Am I crazy or did CP have even a better RS in 09? The only difference is that in 08 his playoffs were on another level too with 12.3 BPM and nearly 31 PER. His defense wasn't as good as it is today but he clearly had the feel for the game and in some ways I think he didn't play as controlled offensively as he plays now.


PS. I am very interested in some of the Wade vs. Curry vs. KD opinions. I feel very strongly here that Wade had a superior peak though the gap isn't huge by any means.

CP was injured in 09 playoffs and got dumpstered by Chauncey Billups. You definitely don't wanna use that year. As for 08, Paul was really mediocre in the WCSFs vs. Spurs. Some games he was great, other times he didn't even show up. In game 7 Jannero Pargo was playing better than Paul, IIRC. Kobe was faaar better in the playoffs. People forget just how dominant those Lakers were in the postseason. They were winning with ease. They only didn't win a title because they faced one of the GOAT teams.

[trex_8063]

fwiw, I just updated my spreadsheet on pre-1974 per 100 possession stats (and rTS) to include Rick Barry's pre-1974 years. Not that I think we've reached a point where he's a candidate, but his early NBA and ABA statistical profile did come up in the last thread.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xTcce_cLHEmvG6Dft5QwsYnhzh_dBk4gyYXoJiWY4T8/edit#gid=0

[trex_8063]

I'm very surprised that Kobe hasn't been mentioned yet. To me his peak was 08 where he led one of the best offenses ever (08 Lakers after Gasol's trade had insane offensive efficiency other that vs. Celtics). MVP, consistency, was okay on defense that year, great leader and put incredible amount of pressure on the defense.

fwiw, he did get one 3rd ballot vote in the #12 thread (though I think his champion vanished---or changed his mind---in the #13 thread).

[JordansBulls]

1st ballot selection: Wade 2006 - Put on a show in the playoffs especially the ECF and the NBA Finals pretty much singlehandedly dominating the finals with the highest PER ever for a finals.

2nd ballot selection: Moses Malone 1983 - Dominant Season and playoffs and went 12-1 in the postseason. Won league and finals mvp.

3rd ballot selection: Julius Erving 1976 - Dominant Season and playoffs With PER of 28.7, WS/PER 48 minutes in the season 0.262-----and PER of 32.0, and Win Shares/PER 48 minutes in the playoffs 0.321 (13 playoff games, title)

[Dr Spaceman]

Here's where I'm at with Wade currently: he's a guy who shouldered a tremendous load in terms of raw production in his prime. The problem is that his team's were bad. I'm not talking about his supporting casts either; Wade's teams were really bad with him on the floor. In terms of actual lift, there's no (numerical) reason to believe his impact was any higher than other contemporary superstars. Guys like Curry, Dirk, etc. have similar or higher on/off scores on teams that accomplished way more than Wade's ever did.

So you kind of get stuck in this thing where you can't have it both ways: we're really impressed with Wade's raw production around a terrible cast because we think it signifies huge impact. But if his team isn't terrible, were forced to consider that either his numbers wouldn't look so impressive because there are more talented players to produce those numbers, or he'd continue putting up those same numbers but his impact would be lessened because now he's cannibalizing.

Look I'm not trying to boil this down to team success but there are certain skills that better enable one to bootstrap a terrible team as the center of that solar system, and there are certain skills that allow for a healthier blend as your talent level goes up, and this implies a higher ceiling.

Let's talk about Wade's 2006 run. Look at the numbers of his team's offensive performance: they were bad! Miami's offense was awful in the playoffs; their defense was superlative, so they just had to be good enough on offense, and Wade posting crazy numbers enabled that.

But we've literally never seen Wade lead even a decent offense as a first option. Miami was 20th on offense in his peak season. Was his 2009 cast really that much worse than Dirk's? FWIW: Dirk's career on-court ORTG is higher than Wade's single season best (2006) and at his peak Dirk was leading offenses in the 115 range while Wade was topping out at 110.

I have real, serious doubts about Wade's portability, and I think it holds him back as an offensive player. I think Curry and Dirk in particular just give your team a way higher ceiling and are more likely to scale with a team to championship levels.

[Clyde Frazier]

Spoiler:

It would be very hard for me to understand Dr J over Oscar.

Oscar was leading top offenses every year, and in multiple team environments. Sometimes he was scoring 30 ppg, sometimes he was just a distributor like in Milwaukee. Dr J is highly dependent on team structure to make impact. As we have seen in the 70s, his impact varied year to year by a significant margin depending on his role and fit of other players. I see Oscar as much more portable player due to succeeding in multiple team environements and delivering results every single time.

Oscar was a much better offensive player in general. People really underrate just how hard it is to lead top offense every year with mediocre supporting cast. This is what happened in the 60s. When Oscar had great supporting cast in Milwaukee, he was leading potentially GOAT offensive team (along with 87 Lakers, 92 Bulls, 07 Suns). Dr J never had that kind of success. His teams were often middle of the pack offensively. I can hardly see a perimeter player making Oscar-level impact without leading top offense every year.

Dr J was also much less consistent. There were many playoff series where he underperformed. In some of them, he was completely dominated by his counterpart (Marques Johnson and Bird come to mind). Admittedly, this mostly happened in the 80s but he just never showed that he could dominate top competition consistently. I know he dumpstered Bobby Jones but other than that, his record vs top competition is mediocre for an all-time great. Oscar was delivering year after year against the very best defenders of his generation (West, Frazier, KC Jones) who were backed by great defensive bigs (Wilt, Reed, Russell). Oscar never had Dr J's letdowns in the playoffs.

I'm very surprised that Kobe hasn't been mentioned yet. To me his peak was 08 where he led one of the best offenses ever (08 Lakers after Gasol's trade had insane offensive efficiency other that vs. Celtics). MVP, consistency, was okay on defense that year, great leader and put incredible amount of pressure on the defense. Unlike Dr J, did not have many weaknesses. Erving had a mediocre jumpshot and this is why he was generally much weaker in HCO.

1) This is a peaks project. Play across multiple seasons shouldn't matter.

2) Kobe has been mentioned a few times already.

[Narigo]

1. 1964 Oscar Robertson

2. 2009 Dwyane Wade

3. 2014 Kevin Durant


Will more post more detail later

[PaulieWal]

Dirk's career on-court ORTG is higher than Wade's single season best (2006) and at his peak Dirk was leading offenses in the 115 range while Wade was topping out at 110.

Well let's look at some career on-court ORTGs then:

Wade - 110.5
Dirk - 112.3
James - 111.3
CP -112.2
Bryant - 110.6
Curry - 111
KD - 109.2

Except for Dirk and CP the rest are not really separating themselves from the pack.

And let's look at Wade in 2011 while he was still in his prime and had James/Bosh - 115.1
Wade in 2013 - 115.6

And I am aware Curry was slightly better last year but if anything it shows if Wade has decent talent around him he's capable of elevating you to pretty darn good levels offensively.

[Dr Spaceman]

Dirk's career on-court ORTG is higher than Wade's single season best (2006) and at his peak Dirk was leading offenses in the 115 range while Wade was topping out at 110.

Well let's look at some career on-court ORTGs then:

Wade - 110.5
Dirk - 112.3
James - 111.3
CP -112.2
Bryant - 110.6
Curry - 111
KD - 109.2

Except for Dirk and CP the rest are not really separating themselves from the pack.

And let's look at Wade in 2011 while he was still in his prime and had James/Bosh - 115.1
Wade in 2013 - 115.6

And I am aware Curry was slightly better last year but if anything it shows if Wade has decent talent around him he's capable of elevating you to pretty darn good levels offensively.

Hmm, I'm going at something a little deeper though.

Here is Dirk's team ORTG for every playoff series he played in during his prime:
03: 114.3, 114.2
04: 104
05: 115.6, 112.2
06: 116, 114.7, 114.4, 99.9
07: 106.6
08: 109.5
09: 113.2, 114.3
10: 105.8
11: 113.4, 116.7, 115.1, 110.7

Here is how Wade looks:
06: 107.9, 112.9, 107.3, 101
07: 97.4
09: 107.4
10: 97.8

Dirk was consistently leading God-tier playoff offenses through an entire decade. Wade was... not. I undertstand Wade played with some terrible casts, but... compare Wade's 06 cast to Dirk's 2009. Does supporting cast really go all the way to explaining the results here?

Note that I specifically picked years Wade was a #1 guy. I didn't count 05, where Shaq was 2nd in MVP voting, or LBJ era for obvious reasons.

[ceiling raiser]

Spaceman - Awhile back you noted:

The argument (at least for me) is not about winning. By 2011 Dirk had become the most unstoppable isolation player the league had ever seen (except perhaps Kareem but I’m not sure) which opened up possibilities for the Maverick offense which they never had before. There was no longer any semblance of defense that could stop him getting a clean look, and thus the level of gravity he pulled became basically unlimited.

Dirk’s switch from an off-the-dribble attacker and spot shooter to post-up savant was the difference between defenses getting away with single coverage and having to send help at 18 feet. Dallas surrounded him with players who could D up and knock down 3s, abd that was all he needed to be the centerpiece of a championship cast.

it’s a skillset argument.

From a skillset POV, how far off is 14 KD? Are his matchups with CP3 and Tony Allen red flags for you? Also, how do you feel about Dirk vs KD defensively?

[PaulieWal]

Dirk's career on-court ORTG is higher than Wade's single season best (2006) and at his peak Dirk was leading offenses in the 115 range while Wade was topping out at 110.

Well let's look at some career on-court ORTGs then:

Wade - 110.5
Dirk - 112.3
James - 111.3
CP -112.2
Bryant - 110.6
Curry - 111
KD - 109.2

Except for Dirk and CP the rest are not really separating themselves from the pack.

And let's look at Wade in 2011 while he was still in his prime and had James/Bosh - 115.1
Wade in 2013 - 115.6

And I am aware Curry was slightly better last year but if anything it shows if Wade has decent talent around him he's capable of elevating you to pretty darn good levels offensively.

Hmm, I'm going at something a little deeper though.

Here is Dirk's team ORTG for every playoff series he played in during his prime:
03: 114.3, 114.2
04: 104
05: 115.6, 112.2
06: 116, 114.7, 114.4, 99.9
07: 106.6
08: 109.5
09: 113.2, 114.3
10: 105.8
11: 113.4, 116.7, 115.1, 110.7

Here is how Wade looks:
06: 107.9, 112.9, 107.3, 101
07: 97.4
09: 107.4
10: 97.8

Dirk was consistently leading God-tier playoff offenses through an entire decade. Wade was... not. I undertstand Wade played with some terrible casts, but... compare Wade's 06 cast to Dirk's 2009. Does supporting cast really go all the way to explaining the results here?

Note that I specifically picked years Wade was a #1 guy. I didn't count 05, where Shaq was 2nd in MVP voting, or LBJ era for obvious reasons.

Would need more information on those playoff series to reach any definitive conclusion, maybe if you have information on their opponents feel free to post here or I will look them up when I have more time.

But either way, I am not buying the concerns about Wade's portability or his team's on-court ORTGs as throughout his career he's right there with his contemporaries. Moreover, it also comes down to how much stock you are putting into ORTGs and how much you are attributing a higher on-court ORTG as "better offensively" or "lift".

[Dr Spaceman]

Spaceman - Awhile back you noted:

The argument (at least for me) is not about winning. By 2011 Dirk had become the most unstoppable isolation player the league had ever seen (except perhaps Kareem but I’m not sure) which opened up possibilities for the Maverick offense which they never had before. There was no longer any semblance of defense that could stop him getting a clean look, and thus the level of gravity he pulled became basically unlimited.

Dirk’s switch from an off-the-dribble attacker and spot shooter to post-up savant was the difference between defenses getting away with single coverage and having to send help at 18 feet. Dallas surrounded him with players who could D up and knock down 3s, abd that was all he needed to be the centerpiece of a championship cast.

it’s a skillset argument.

.

From a skillset POV, how far off is 14 KD? Are his matchups with CP3 and Tony Allen red flags for you? Also, how do you feel about Dirk vs KD defensively?

The Allen/CP things do stick out in my mind as a big deal. I posted in the last thread that Dirk had 3 ways to get off a high EV shot out of the pick and roll: spotting up from mid or behind the arc, attacking off the dribble, and posting/isolating from the nail. The reason I bring this up is there is now no way to defend him- you switch, he posts your guard up and hits a fadeaway; you ICE, he gets a catch and shoot 3; you hedge, and he can blow past a defender who's out of position. The reason I say this is because at his peak there's literally no way to stop Dirk now.

During still has limitations on his ball handling (mostly due to frame) and post game, and I think it's unarguable that held him back to some degree. He's a wicked awesome scorer, but still lacking that little bit of "oomph" that would allow him to be truly unstoppable. OKC's offense in general was slowed in 3 straight series that season, and that's not a good sign

Densively I don't think there's an appreciable difference in either direction. Durant is better as a man defender but Dirk is a superlative rebounder and has an underrated ability to generate turnovers- swiping and stripping the ball away from guards and opposing bigs, and positioning himself in the right places. I don't think either is anything noteworthy, both small positives.

Durant is right up in this range, but I'm not considering him just yet. I think Dirk was the better player, and in fact I think Dirk is one of the strongest candidates in general right now.

[Dr Spaceman]

Well let's look at some career on-court ORTGs then:

Wade - 110.5
Dirk - 112.3
James - 111.3
CP -112.2
Bryant - 110.6
Curry - 111
KD - 109.2

Except for Dirk and CP the rest are not really separating themselves from the pack.

And let's look at Wade in 2011 while he was still in his prime and had James/Bosh - 115.1
Wade in 2013 - 115.6

And I am aware Curry was slightly better last year but if anything it shows if Wade has decent talent around him he's capable of elevating you to pretty darn good levels offensively.

Hmm, I'm going at something a little deeper though.

Here is Dirk's team ORTG for every playoff series he played in during his prime:
03: 114.3, 114.2
04: 104
05: 115.6, 112.2
06: 116, 114.7, 114.4, 99.9
07: 106.6
08: 109.5
09: 113.2, 114.3
10: 105.8
11: 113.4, 116.7, 115.1, 110.7

Here is how Wade looks:
06: 107.9, 112.9, 107.3, 101
07: 97.4
09: 107.4
10: 97.8

Dirk was consistently leading God-tier playoff offenses through an entire decade. Wade was... not. I undertstand Wade played with some terrible casts, but... compare Wade's 06 cast to Dirk's 2009. Does supporting cast really go all the way to explaining the results here?

Note that I specifically picked years Wade was a #1 guy. I didn't count 05, where Shaq was 2nd in MVP voting, or LBJ era for obvious reasons.

Would need more information on those playoff series to reach any definitive conclusion, maybe if you have information on their opponents feel free to post here or I will look them up when I have more time.

But either way, I am not buying the concerns about Wade's portability or his team's on-court ORTGs as throughout his career he's right there with his contemporaries. Moreover, it also comes down to how much stock you are putting into ORTGs and how much you are attributing a higher on-court ORTG as "better offensively" or "lift".

Well no, but I've made a lot of posts, and definitely in the last few threads in this project, about why I think Dirk's skill set allows him to be an offensive focal point with essentially an unlimited ceiling. His unusual skill set from the 4 spot creates murderous problems for a defense. Wade is lacking in several areas we know contribute to portability (shooting ability, lack of ball dominance) and Dirk happens to be elite or GOAT at both. Dirk never turns the ball over, shoots 60% TS, consistently and convincingly raises his output in the playoffs, and has the most unstoppable isolation game we've seen from a player save Shaq.

In short:

-Dirk's skill set is more unique and looks much closer to other historical players who have led GOAT offenses, while Wade's is more replaceable and has been replicated in plenty of star players who have never approached that level of team efficacy
- Dirk actually has led GOAT offenses, and they seem to be substantially better in the playoffs, while Wade has not and sees his team drop off more often than not
-Dirk consistently dominated the league for a 15 years, while Wade's game has not aged well
- There is no individual statistical evidence that would suggest Wade is actually a better offensive player than Dirk

All of this make it extremely likely in my mind that Dirk is the superior player. In a head to head comparison he just looks way more impressive.

[mischievous]

Here's where I'm at with Wade currently: he's a guy who shouldered a tremendous load in terms of raw production in his prime. The problem is that his team's were bad. I'm not talking about his supporting casts either; Wade's teams were really bad with him on the floor. In terms of actual lift, there's no (numerical) reason to believe his impact was any higher than other contemporary superstars. Guys like Curry, Dirk, etc. have similar or higher on/off scores on teams that accomplished way more than Wade's ever did.

So you kind of get stuck in this thing where you can't have it both ways: we're really impressed with Wade's raw production around a terrible cast because we think it signifies huge impact. But if his team isn't terrible, were forced to consider that either his numbers wouldn't look so impressive because there are more talented players to produce those numbers, or he'd continue putting up those same numbers but his impact would be lessened because now he's cannibalizing.

Is this really the route were going to travel? I'd argue that you can't have your argument both ways. The years Wade actually did have a good team it was typically guaranteed a deep trip into the playoffs, title in 06, FInals run in 2011 where he was 1b. You can't look at his raw numbers as empty because his team was bad, then when he does have a championship caliber team create a myth about how his impact is diminished even though he's still putting up excellent numbers.

Let's talk about Wade's 2006 run. Look at the numbers of his team's offensive performance: they were bad! Miami's offense was awful in the playoffs; their defense was superlative, so they just had to be good enough on offense, and Wade posting crazy numbers enabled that.

Who cares how good their offense was? They won a title mainly due to Wade's greatness, and that is the goal of teams, to win a title not put up highly ranked offenses. I'm pretty sure if you asked Wade he wouldn't trade in his 06 ring for a top 3 offense.

But we've literally never seen Wade lead even a decent offense as a first option.

Well it's pretty strange to not only ignore the trash Wade played with in 09 & 10, but to also ignore that Spo is a defensive minded coach that had the Heat playing at a slow pace.

Miami was 20th on offense in his peak season. Was his 2009 cast really that much worse than Dirk's?

are you serious? When in Dirk's prime did he ever have a cast where a Rookie pot-head Beasley averaging 13.9 ppg was his best player? Wade only got 27 games out of Jermaine who wasn't that good at that point, half a season from Marion who was never that good at creating his own shot. Who else is worth mentioning? They had terrible point guard play, no depth at any position,no bench, no one that could create their own shot other than WADE. That was a terribly flawed and structured roster, Dirk has ALWAYS had better teams than that especially in the years he was contending.

FWIW: Dirk's career on-court ORTG is higher than Wade's single season best (2006)

ORTG isn't gospel. And one stat doesn't make Dirk better. I can pull up something arbitrary like, Wade's career PER over 12 seasons is higher than all but 4 of Dirk's seasons.

I think Curry and Dirk in particular just give your team a way higher ceiling and are more likely to scale with a team to championship levels.

Wade won with a team much worse than Curry's so this statement makes no sense sorry.

[Dr Spaceman]

Just to be explicit about something I'm going to be detailing as this project goes on, for those who would support Erving or Wade as historically elite offensive players, consider:

What do Steph Curry, Larry Bird, and Dirk Nowitzki have in common? They are all GOAT level shooters, they are among the best off-ball players we've ever seen, and they've all led offenses that can be considered historically dominant.

What do Dr. J and Wade have in common? They meet none of the above 3 criteria, and IMO the first two are the reason for the third. I don't think that's a coincidence.

I just don't think the box score is sufficient to capture differences at this level, and we're starting to see the same things show up repeatedly in the context of truly elite offensive players. Maybe it's worth considering whether the skills you value are really all that.

[RebelWithACause]

Some thoughts here:

- For the Old great guards I think West was better than Oscar

- I think all of Wade, Kobe, McGrady and Durant peaked higher than DrJ.

- For PG I consider Curry, Nash, Paul and Penny. In that order as well.

- Nowitzki needs more traction here

[Dr Spaceman]

Well let's look at some career on-court ORTGs then:

Wade - 110.5
Dirk - 112.3
James - 111.3
CP -112.2
Bryant - 110.6
Curry - 111
KD - 109.2

Except for Dirk and CP the rest are not really separating themselves from the pack.

And let's look at Wade in 2011 while he was still in his prime and had James/Bosh - 115.1
Wade in 2013 - 115.6

And I am aware Curry was slightly better last year but if anything it shows if Wade has decent talent around him he's capable of elevating you to pretty darn good levels offensively.

Hmm, I'm going at something a little deeper though.

Here is Dirk's team ORTG for every playoff series he played in during his prime:
03: 114.3, 114.2
04: 104
05: 115.6, 112.2
06: 116, 114.7, 114.4, 99.9
07: 106.6
08: 109.5
09: 113.2, 114.3
10: 105.8
11: 113.4, 116.7, 115.1, 110.7

Here is how Wade looks:
06: 107.9, 112.9, 107.3, 101
07: 97.4
09: 107.4
10: 97.8

Dirk was consistently leading God-tier playoff offenses through an entire decade. Wade was... not. I undertstand Wade played with some terrible casts, but... compare Wade's 06 cast to Dirk's 2009. Does supporting cast really go all the way to explaining the results here?

Note that I specifically picked years Wade was a #1 guy. I didn't count 05, where Shaq was 2nd in MVP voting, or LBJ era for obvious reasons.

Would need more information on those playoff series to reach any definitive conclusion, maybe if you have information on their opponents feel free to post here or I will look them up when I have more time.

But either way, I am not buying the concerns about Wade's portability or his team's on-court ORTGs as throughout his career he's right there with his contemporaries. Moreover, it also comes down to how much stock you are putting into ORTGs and how much you are attributing a higher on-court ORTG as "better offensively" or "lift".

Honestly, how much does it matter who the opponents were? This is a decade-large sample of Dirk kicking everyone's asses in the playoffs repeatedly. Just in 2006 he posted essentially the same ORTG against the Spurs as he did the Suns. He's had some bad series, but here you are looking at a literal decade of offensive performances that would make Mike D'Antoni smile, and you want more information about the opponents.

This is with Nash. This is without Nash. This is with Avery. This is with Carlisle. This is with Finley, J-Ho, Marion, Kidd, Harris, Van Excel, Don Nelson, Desngana Diop, against the Spurs, Lakers, Suns, Kings, Blazers. Literally every possible context changed around Dirk.

There are two constants in this equation: Dirk and elite team offense. Do with that what you will.