Peak Project #16

[trex_8063]

RealGM Greatest Player Peaks of All-Time List
1. Michael Jordan ('91---unanimous)
2. Shaquille O'Neal ('00---unanimous)
3. Lebron James ('13---non-unanimous ('09, '12))
4. Wilt Chamberlain ('67---non-unanimous ('64))
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('77---non-unanimous ('71, '72))
6. Hakeem Olajuwon ('94---non-unanimous ('93))
7. Tim Duncan ('03---non-unanimous ('02))
8. Kevin Garnett ('04---unanimous)
9. Bill Russell ('65---non-unanimous ('62, '64))
10. Magic Johnson ('87---unanimous)
11. Larry Bird ('86---non-unanimous ('87, '88))
12. David Robinson ('95---non-unanimous ('94, '96))
13. Bill Walton ('77---unanimous)
14. Julius Erving ('76---unanimous)
15. Oscar Robertson ('64---non-unanimous ('63))
16. ?????


I'll be looking at Durant almost for sure, probably Dirk, and any one of Curry, West, Paul, Wade, TMac, Barkley, +/- maybe Moses are all in contention right now for me.
Go at it guys. Target stop time for this thread will be Friday morning.

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[JordansBulls]

1st ballot selection: Wade 2006 - Put on a show in the playoffs especially the ECF and the NBA Finals pretty much singlehandedly dominating the finals with the highest PER ever for a finals.

2nd ballot selection: Moses Malone 1983 - Dominant Season and playoffs and went 12-1 in the postseason. Won league and finals mvp.

3rd ballot selection: Charles Barkley 1993 - Dominant season and playoffs, led team to the best record his best overall season and a true mvp player in a league with 3 players with super mvp qualities.

[LA Bird]

I have Dirk and Curry for #1 and #2 but any thoughts on Nash at this point yet?
How does his offense compare to Wade/West? If Nash's defense is a major concern, is there any evidence that Durant and TMac are so much better on the defensive end that it outweighs Nash's GOAT-level offensive impact?

[Wade4life3]

Totally Wade 2009 or 2006 for 1st ballot...Personally i'm going to pick 2006. I'm sorry but Steph losing that finals mvp was the deciding factor for me. Wade was just too dominant on both ends of the floor.

[mischievous]

Ballot 1: 2009 Dwayne Wade. Regular season stats: 30.2/5/7.5/ 2.2 spg/1.3 blk 57.4 ts%, 30.4 PER. The only players with a higher PER in nba history are MJ, Lebron, Shaq, Wilt, AD, and David Robinson. Still respectable in his playoff series, although back spasms limited him to some degree, still did roughly 29/5/5 on 56.5 ts% 26.3 PER. Wade was a great defender in 09, made 2nd team defense, 3rd in DPOY, elite help defender, very good man defender, excellent shot blocking for a guard. Team success often hurts Wade when it comes to this season but i think sometimes people fail to realize how bad his team was. Wade's best teammate was a Rookie Beasley who averaged 13.9 ppg, after that he had 27 games from a washed up Jermaine Oneal, then half a season from a banged up past prime Shawn Marion.

Wade had a ridiculous 13 game stretch that year where he averaged 37.2 ppg 5.9 rpg 10.4 apg 2.9 spg 1.4 bpg 55.3 fg%. This is certainly one of the greatest stretches of basketball played by anyone.

Ballot 2: 2003 Tmac. Literally carried scrubs to the postseason to the tune of 32.1/6.5/5.5, took care of the ball well(2.6 TOV) and had nasty handles for a 6'8 guy, 56.4 ts% which is roughly 4 or 5 % above league average. Had an historical PER of 30.3, only MJ, Lebron, Shaq, Wilt, AD, David Robinson, and Dwyane Wade(very slightly) had a higher PER in NBA/ABA history.

Did very well against a nasty Pistons defense who were close to their peak, 31.7/6.7/4.7 56.1 ts% 27 PER. Even though a lot of his advanced numbers went down, he pretty much maintained his scoring volume and efficiency from the regular season as well as his rebounding.

Ballot 3: Undecided. I'm considering Ewing, but there's a good chance i may roll with one of KD, Dirk, Kobe, or Barkley.

Edit: 1990: Patrick Ewing: Excellent scorer in the regular season 28.6 ppg/10.9 rpg on 59.9 ts%, while being a defensive anchor, and more or less maintained that in the postseason.

I decided to go with Ewing because i see his ability to be a 2-way anchor more valuable than what the KDs, Dirks and Kobes give you.

[Quotatious]

I didn't vote in the previous thread, in part because I had very little free time, but I'll also admit that I was really confused, not sure who I should vote for. I'm okay with Oscar winning it, and Curry/Wade finishing second and third, though.

I'll still go with Wade as my top vote here.

My votes:

#1 - Dwyane Wade '09
#2 - Tracy McGrady '03
#3 - Patrick Ewing '90


Mischievous's reasoning for '09 Wade and '03 McGrady is pretty good, IMO. They put up incredible all-around numbers (both raw and advanced), both were able to carry very weak teams to the playoffs, and as Wade proved in '06, he was capable of leading a team to a title, so I think his ability to get his numbers and have great impact on a strong team is just fine, I don't share the belief that some guys have, about Wade not being portable because of his ball-dominance. I also don't see why his ball-dominance is a bad thing, because he's super elite both as a scorer and a playmaker, if we are talking about the '09 version.

T-Mac is about the same as Wade, just worse defensively. I think T-Mac was slightly better (and more portable) offensively because of his superior shooting ability. That makes him more dangerous off-ball (he shot almost 39% from beyond the arc on 6 attempts per game, something Wade could only dream about). McGrady was also a better scorer (slightly higher scoring average, better league-relative efficiency, and more versatile offensive skillset), and he also had an incredible AST/TOV ratio (even slightly better than Wade), but I think the gap on defense in Wade's favor is bigger than those offensive advantages T-Mac has, plus Wade played 4 more games in RS - I'll use that as a tiebreaker.

Ewing slightly ahead of Moses for #3. He's a slightly better scorer, slightly better passer, much better defender (I know the Knicks were just average defensively in '90, but a few years later, Ewing anchored GOAT level defenses, so I totally believe that's because of coaching changes - Stu Jackson was a mediocre coach, Pat Riley was one of the best ever, and if you put '90 Ewing on the '94 Knicks, I'm pretty sure they would've won the title that year, pretty convincingly, and the superior mobility that '90 Ewing had, should've made him a similarly effective defensive anchor, even if he was less experienced, he'd make up for that with superior athleticism - there's absolutely no way '90 Ewing would've struggled offensively in the playoffs as much as '94 Ewing did, and there's no chance he was going to get embarrassed by Hakeem, and average 18.9 ppg on 39% TS, either). Moses was only better on the boards. No reason to think that Ewing couldn't lead the '83 Sixers to the title in a similarly dominant fashion.

I'm a little lower on Curry right now, because I think some of his greatness is context-dependent, i.e. he wouldn't have looked as good on bad/average team. Especially defensively, playing on a great defensive team like the Warriors, makes his defense look better than it actually is. I'm thinking that if Mark Jackson remained the Warriors coach last season, Curry wouldn't have reached that level. Kerr really improved the Warriors offense, by a big margin, and it made Curry look like a GOAT level offensive player.

I'm lower on CP3, too. There are legit concerns about his defense in '08. and I don't think he was as impactful as his incredible boxscore numbers suggest. I'm really not sure about Curry/CP3/Dirk/Kobe/Karl/Barkley right now. Extremely difficult to separate them. Durant and Nash belong to that group, as well (and so does Jerry West, who is even more difficult to evaluate because he played in such a distant past).

[Dr Spaceman]

[YouTube]http://youtu.be/bNBTyXTCRuc[/YouTube]


Jerry West should be on everyone's mind now that Oscar is in. A while ago we had a thread on the GOAT Finals performance in a losing effort, and Jerry West won in a landslide with this series:http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/1969-nba-finals-celtics-vs-lakers.html

I struggle to see what that argument for Dwyane Wade is over West. West was the best jump shooter the league had seen until Larry came along, and the persistent threat of him popping off the dribble kept defensive attention on him at all times. He was an excellent slasher as well. At the very least, considering his numbers you have to consider that he's close to Wade.

And then there's the defense. It's tough because we can't know exactly how good he was. What we do know, though, is that his peers RAVED about him. Bill Russell said he was the best defensive player the league had seen at that time. He's consistently hailed as the best defensive guard in the league in the press. We have STL/BLK numbers for exactly one season of his career (74, his last in the league) and he averaged 2.6 steals and 0.7 blocks. That's ridiculous.

He was 4x all-defensive first team and 1x all-defensive second team. This accounts for every year of his career that the award existed.

By literally every account, West is Elite with a capital E when it comes to defense. Ever if we were to accept an edge for Wade offensively, surely it can't be big enough to offset this defensive gap, right?

[Dr Spaceman]

[YouTube]http://youtu.be/_yrZLMLo5PQ[/YouTube]

-There's a lot here. I see off-ball movement, drive and kick, isolation shot creation, he had an extremely transferable skill set.

[YouTube]http://youtu.be/OEzwR1a8KuA[/YouTube]

Here's a longer career mix.

[Dr Spaceman]

FTR, I can't get behind the idea of Wade as a "super elite" playmaker at all. Not when we're discussing him in the context of Nash, Paul, Oscar, West, etc. He's just not that guy. He was a great passer, and when his scoring threat bent defenses he was able to make the correct pass pretty much every time.

But what actual elite playmakers do is something else entirely. First of all, they are constantly looking to get teammates the shots they want, as opposed to scoring on huge volume themselves. They have ways of manipulating the defense that are far beyond anything Wade ever displayed (especially Nash), and spatial awareness that allows them to manipulate all 9 players on the floor like chess pieces. Wade was a pure bred attacker, who liked to wait for seams in the defense and blow through them with his superior athleticism. He looked for his shot first and passed if there was something immediate and obvious better. Nash is just in a whole other world; the dude would literally shift defenders with his eyes and then rifle a pass threaded behind their ankle. Nash took every dribble seriously, there was no wasted motion, everything was designed to pull defenders on a string. He was a freaking puppeteer. Wade has never displayed BBIQ within the same universe of what Nash was doing.

Calling him a "super elite" playmaker doesn't fly when players like Nash are on the board. Hell, Wade isn't necessarily an elite playmakeramong volume scorers. He's clearly not on par with LeBron, and I think a good case can be made for each of: Kobe, Jordan, West, Oscar, Barkley, Curry. I know he had huge assist numbers, but that can be a function of ball-dominance just as much as playmaking.

[Quotatious]

I struggle to see what that argument for Dwyane Wade is over West.

How about this:

'09 Wade - 30.2/ 5.0/ 7.5 , 57.4% TS on 89.9 pace
'66 West - 31.3/ 6.7/ 7.1, 57.3% TS on 121.2 pace

Wade was able to get extremely comparable numbers on incomparably lower pace. You can argue that West was far more efficient, era-relative, but on the other hand, he played against very primitive perimeter defenses, compared to the defenses Wade had to deal with.

West was the best jump shooter the league had seen until Larry came along

How do you know? We don't have stats for that.

and the persistent threat of him popping off the dribble kept defensive attention on him at all times. He was an excellent slasher as well. At the very least, considering his numbers you have to consider that he's close to Wade.

I think he is close to Wade, but I can't justify putting West over Wade. IMO it's close, but clearly in Wade's favor (and I love West and I'm kinda "whatever" about Wade).

And then there's the defense. It's tough because we can't know exactly how good he was. What we do know, though, is that his peers RAVED about him. Bill Russell said he was the best defensive player the league had seen at that time. He's consistently hailed as the best defensive guard in the league in the press.

You know, Kobe is considered one of the best defenders of all-time by a lot of people, too, and we know that he's not really even close (for example Doc Rivers called Kobe the best help defender since Pippen...). I'm not saying that West's defense is overrated, but it's certainly possible that his reputation was better than his play on the court, as far as defense (like Kobe's). I wouldn't even pretend that I know anything about West's defense, because I would have to watch hundreds of his games to know that.

We have STL/BLK numbers for exactly one season of his career (74, his last in the league) and he averaged 2.6 steals and 0.7 blocks. That's ridiculous.

Well, you know, Iverson averaged a ton of steals, and he wasn't exactly a great defender. BLK/STL totals really don't have to translate to good defense.

Ever if we were to accept an edge for Wade offensively, surely it can't be big enough to offset this defensive gap, right?

I don't see why not. I can't imagine West being much better than Wade on defense. Besides, I don't think defense is nearly as important for a combo guard as offense.

I feel like a lot of the arguments you make for West are based on narratives, not an honest examination of his game (I know there's very little footage of West compared to Wade, but I see a strong possibility that West was a lot like Kobe on defense).

[Quotatious]

FTR, I can't get behind the idea of Wade as a "super elite" playmaker at all. Not when we're discussing him in the context of Nash, Paul, Oscar, West, etc. He's just not that guy. He was a great passer, and when his scoring threat bent defenses he was able to make the correct pass pretty much every time.

But what actual elite playmakers do is something else entirely. First of all, they are constantly looking to get teammates the shots they want, as opposed to scoring on huge volume themselves. They have ways of manipulating the defense that are far beyond anything Wade ever displayed (especially Nash), and spatial awareness that allows them to manipulate all 9 players on the floor like chess pieces. Wade was a pure bred attacker, who liked to wait for seams in the defense and blow through them with his superior athleticism. He looked for his shot first and passed if there was something immediate and obvious better. Nash is just in a whole other world; the dude would literally shift defenders with his eyes and then rifle a pass threaded behind their ankle. Nash took every dribble seriously, there was no wasted motion, everything was designed to pull defenders on a string. He was a freaking puppeteer. Wade has never displayed BBIQ within the same universe of what Nash was doing.

Calling him a "super elite" playmaker doesn't fly when players like Nash are on the board. Hell, Wade isn't necessarily an elite playmakeramong volume scorers. He's clearly not on par with LeBron, and I think a good case can be made for each of: Kobe, Jordan, West, Oscar, Barkley, Curry. I know he had huge assist numbers, but that can be a function of ball-dominance just as much as playmaking.

I disagree entirely. Wade is IMO the best playmaker among volume scorers other than Oscar and Bird. He not only had huge assist totals for a shooting guard, but if we are talking about the '09 version of Wade, also great assist/turnover ratio (slightly better AST/TOV% ratio than LeBron that year, and very comparable scoring, in the regular season).

You conveniently ignored the fact that Wade has just as big of an advantage in terms of scoring, as Nash has in terms of playmaking, and Wade was far better on D.

Wade's combined points and assists are among the highest ever for any player. He was absolutely an elite playmaker. His pick & roll and dribble penetration had an absolutely devastating impact on opposing defenses.

I really don't see how Wade's ball-dominance is supposedly a bad thing if he was historically productive on historically high usage. His huge usage was totally justifiable. 30/5/7.5 with 30 PER on 36.2% usage is absolutely insane. Prime Jordan level production.

[Texas Chuck]

Q,

I don't see how you can essentially accuse Spaceman of relying on narrative on West. He's essentially taking all the available evidence: All-D teams, respect of peers, block/steal totals and reaching what seems like a reasonable conclusion that West was a very good defender. Maybe not elite with a capital E as he believes, but at least its based on something.

Your counter argument seems to be that Kobe's defensive reputation is exaggerated by all-D selections he didn't deserve so maybe we should assume the same about West. I don't understand how you can defend that correlation without creating your own narrative. How are players of previous generations supposed to be evaluated if we don't assign some weight to the information we have on them?

It's one thing to state as you did that you don't have enough information to know for sure, but when the evidence we do have suggests him being a good defender, it seems odd to accuse Spaceman of creating a narrative, no?

And its not like Wade is some all-world defender. His defense is exaggerated by some high-profile highlightsm but it doesn't take much to suggest West is stronger defensively does it?

[Texas Chuck]

Now on playmaking, I understand what Spaceman is saying---he believes that Wade isn't truly a great playmaker, but simply such a dangerous scorer and so good at breaking down defenses with his athleticism that it creates opportunities for high assist totals. And I don't totally disagree.

OTOH, for me production counts a ton. Maybe Nash is doing it in a more impressive way by outthinking/manipulating defenses, but in the end its a results business. I don't see an issue with Wade getting it done using his gifts. Multiple ways to get it done. I know I like to pimp Dirk for creating tons of open shots and he's not remotely a "playmaker".

I don't see an argument for calling him a better playmaker than Lebron--none. But if you want to compare him to Mike or some of the other volume scorers I'd say that's reasonable. He's probably in the middle of the pack of the guys you listed.

[Quotatious]

Q,

I don't see how you can essentially accuse Spaceman of relying on narrative on West while doing the same yourself. He's essentially taking all the available evidence: All-D teams, respect of peers, block/steal totals and reaching what seems like a reasonable conclusion that West was a very good defender. Maybe not elite with a capital E as he believes, but at least its based on something.

Respect from peers or blocks/steals hardly counts as "evidence". The former is what narratives are mostly based on.

Besides, I'm NOT dismissing the idea of West being a very good defender. I think so, too. I'm just saying that nothing Spaceman mentioned is a strong proof.

Your counter argument seems to be that Kobe's defensive reputation is exaggerated by all-D selections he didn't deserve so we should assume the same about West. Or Iverson gambled a lot for his steals so West must have.

It's one thing to state as you did that you don't have enough information to know for sure, but when the evidence we do have suggests him being a good defender, it seems odd to accuse Spaceman of creating a narrative, no?

You misunderstood what I said, so let me make it clear - what I mean is that it's possible that West's defensive reputation is exaggerated, like Kobe's, but it may also not be exeggarated. I just see no reason to speak with the kind of conviction that Spaceman seemed to speak, because in order to properly evaluate defense, we would have to watch a lot of games (not highlights, full games). I clearly stated that I have no idea how good West's defense really was. Almost none of us knows that, as we haven't seen enough games, and eye-test is so essential if we're talking about defense.

At any rate, I don't believe there's a significant gap between West and Wade on D. Both were likely very good. Even if West gets the edge there, it's not by much. Not enough to close the gap in terms of offensive productivity in Wade's favor. Defense from a guard is a secondary concern, IMO. Let's be generous and assume that West was around Jordan's level on D - even that is not a huge advantage over Wade, to me (Jordan's defensive impact was somewhat dubious at certain points in his career, such as '93 - considering the Bulls improved defensively the next season, after he retired in '93). Wade had great steal and block numbers in '09 - 2.2 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, and he made All-Defense 2nd team. His on/off court defensive split that year, as well as single and multi year RAPM, and even a boxscore defensive stat like DBPM or DWS, all indicate that he was a significantly positive defensive presence that year. It doesn't get much better than that, as a guard. That's why I don't believe West has a significant edge on D, if he has any edge, at all.

Hell, even if put a lot of emphasis on West's playoff runs - we can choose '06 as Wade's peak - his '06 playoff run was every bit as good as any playoff run West had, and his RS still compares favorably to West's best.

Per 100 possessions, Wade looks much better (West has superior league-relative scoring efficiency, but that's the only advantage he has). I know it's not an ideal way to compare players from different eras, but it's still the best way to do it, at least that's an educated guess.

[RSCD3_]

When where talking about west' defense compared to Kobe's doesn't Bill Russell hold a lot more weight than Doc Rivers who says a lot of thing to inspire his team/exaggerate the strength of his enemies.

Furthermore if people were arguing Russell in on account of his defense being so far ahead of the scale than any modern big we've nowadays. Isn't it possible that west had more perimeter impact then than players today.

[Texas Chuck]

Well I noticed you stressed "possible" in that post, and in your original post, called it "a strong possibility" that he was like Kobe. I feel like there is meaningful difference in that wording--not sure if you'd agree?

You may not put any value in the opinions his contemporaries, but again I feel like if you are going to make multiple allusions to Kobe when discussing West's defense you should at least bring something tangible to justify it. Because if we looked at all players who made 4 all-D teams in a row I think we'd agree that the vast majority of them truly were very good defenders. So picking out Kobe seems questionable unless you have some specific reasoning to suggest West was purely on reputation, no?


And I realize you aren't saying West is bad defensively, but rather disagreeing with the basis used to say he was an elite defender. And I think that's totally fine. My issue is with the comparison to Kobe that I can't find any merits too while telling Spaceman that he was relying on narrative. Obviously enjoying the discussion and just felt that a little odd.

[RebelWithACause]

For one guy the defensive first team, sufficient block and steal numbers and a good team defensive rating were enough to convince one, even going as far as calling DrJ a defensive anchor, when there is actually sufficient proof that Dr. J was the Kobe like defender of his generation.

West had defensive All-Team selections, more than one...
He has tremendous block and steal numbers as well as good team D-ratings, yet it isn't enough to convince one that he actually is a good defender.


That's a huge double standard here.
Sorry Q, you're a great poster, but this is inconsistent as hell.

[E-Balla]

here's my field right now:

PGs:
1. 08 Chris Paul
2. 66 Jerry West
3/4/5. 05 Nash/15 Curry/96 Penny (in order of who I'm leaning towards)

Wings:
1/2. 03 T-Mac/09 Wade
3. 06 Kobe Bryant
4. 14 Kevin Durant
5. 61 Elgin Baylor

Bigs:
1/2/3. 11 Dirk/90 Pat/83 Moses (in order of who I'm leaning towards)
4. 90 Charles Barkley
5. 11 Dwight/98 Karl/00 Zo (again, in order)

My nominations will be:
1. 03 Tracy McGrady
2. 09 Dwyane Wade
3. 11 Dirk

For now. It is subject to change when I post my reasoning later.

[trex_8063]

Totally Wade 2009 or 2006 for 1st ballot...Personally i'm going to pick 2006. I'm sorry but Steph losing that finals mvp was the deciding factor for me. Wade was just too dominant on both ends of the floor.

Hello. Would have replied in a PM, but that option isn't available on your profile.
Anyway, please read thru the OP of the List/Metathinking/Interest thread to assure you know the protocol.

As you're a relative unknown, we'd like you to show us what you can contribute to the discussion (the bigger/broader point of the project) over the next thread or two, as a demonstration of capable knowledge and earnest interest. You show us that, and you will be entered into the voter pool.

Cheers....

[RebelWithACause]

PG ballot:
1. Curry
2. Nash
3. Paul
4. Penny
5. Baron

Wing ballot:
1. West
2. Kobe
3. Wade
4. McGrady
5. Durant

Big men ballot:
1. Nowitzki
2. Ewing
3. Barkley

That's my ballot going forward position wise.
Unfortunately Won't be able to contribute much until Monday though. Really busy days ahead.

My overall ballot going forward:

1. Curry 2015
2. West 1966
3. Kobe 2008
4. Dirk 2011
5. Nash 2005
6. Wade 2009
7. McGrady 2003
8. Penny 1996
9. Durant 2014
10. Paul 2008 or 2015

Here are the explanations for Curry and West from last time.

I feel Curry is the ultimate top choice here. His never been seen before shooting, challenges defenses, like never before.
Incredible combination of shooting, playmaking and handles make him unstoppable.
One of my offensive GOATS.
Neutral defender which puts him slightly ahead of Nash among modern point guards. I have both of them ahead of Paul, who in my opinion quite clearly reached offensive heights like Curry or Nash.
In his peak year 08, he also wasn't a plus defender. Neutral probably.



With West and Robertson it comes down in-era domination.
The Wowy data really opened my eyes and made me curious about West.
I have West over Robertson because I believe West to be at least as good on offense as Robertson and a much better defender.
His portability is a lot better, because of his shooting and off-ball play and I would expect him to perform better in the modern era than the Big O.



The 3rd ballot was between Kobe and Dirk.
Basically a toss up for me.
I prefer Kobe over Wade, McGrady and Durant, because I believe he was better offensively. Would love to write a lenthy paragraph about why, but the time is just not there right now.