Peaks Project #25

[trex_8063]

RealGM Greatest Player Peaks of All-Time List
1. Michael Jordan ('91---unanimous)
2. Shaquille O'Neal ('00---unanimous)
3. Lebron James ('13---non-unanimous ('09, '12))
4. Wilt Chamberlain ('67---non-unanimous ('64))
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('77---non-unanimous ('71, '72))
6. Hakeem Olajuwon ('94---non-unanimous ('93))
7. Tim Duncan ('03---non-unanimous ('02))
8. Kevin Garnett ('04---unanimous)
9. Bill Russell ('65---non-unanimous ('62, '64))
10. Magic Johnson ('87---unanimous)
11. Larry Bird ('86---non-unanimous ('87, '88))
12. David Robinson ('95---non-unanimous ('94, '96))
13. Bill Walton ('77---unanimous)
14. Julius Erving ('76---unanimous)
15. Oscar Robertson ('64---non-unanimous ('63))
16. Dwyane Wade ('09---non-unanimous ('06, '10))
17. Stephen Curry ('15---unanimous)
18. Dirk Nowitzki ('11---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
19. Jerry West ('66---non-unanimous ('68, '69))
20. Kevin Durant ('14---unanimous)
21. Patrick Ewing ('90---unanimous)
22. Tracy McGrady ('03---unanimous)
23. Kobe Bryant ('08---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
24. Charles Barkley ('90---non-unanimous ('93))
25. ????

Tentative stop time for this one is late Friday night.

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[SideshowBob]

Ballot

21. Paul 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

Spoiler:

22. Kobe 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

23. Durant 14 +5.50 (+5.50 O/+0.00 D)

24. Ewing 90 +5.50 (+2.50 O/+3.00 D)

25. K. Malone 95 +5.50 (+4.25 O/+1.25 D)

26. Nash 07 +5.50 (+6.50 O/-1.00 D)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Paul:

Spoiler:

I actually think he was better in the 09 RS and even better the 10 RS before injury, but dropped off/got injured in the PS and the rest of the 10 RS.

I prefer those years over post 2010 injury - I think he was just better at putting pressure on the defense. IMO 08 or 09 Paul on the 12-15 Clippers would have been just as, if not more successful. Slightly weaker shooting, but he was quicker, craftier and the rest of his abilities were about the same (playmaking, probing, pace control, etc. were already all-time level in his NO years).

I think his defense is slightly better in LAC, but I don't see it as a huge enough shift to pick any year from 12-15.

Nash:

Spoiler:

Offense from 05-07 is ATG, even 08/10 are awesome. 07 stands out and his defense is also less bad than other years, so it comes out as the best combination of the two. GOAT level PnR creation/probing, exceptional at creating and recognizing matchup disadvantages and quick/instinctive reactions, complete control of the game pace/tempo, just a masterful offensive player.

[70sFan]

1st ballot - Moses Malone 1983
2nd ballot - Karl Malone 1994/1998
3rd ballot- Bob McAdoo 1975

I decide to pick Karl higher because of his defense and better versatily. McAdoo is much better playoff performer, but it's not enough for me.
After them, I have Paul and Nash, followed by Elgin-Barry-Petit trio.

[E-Balla]

PGs:
1. 08 Chris Paul
2/3. 05 Nash/96 Penny
4/5. 99 Kidd/85 IT

Wings:
1. 61 Elgin Baylor
2. 97 Grant Hill
3/4. 01 VC/15 Harden
5. 09 Brandon Roy

Bigs:
1. 83 Moses Malone
2/3/4. 11 Dwight/98 Karl/00 Zo
5. 15 Anthony Davis (was thinking of 58 Pettit or 75 Gilmore)

My nominations will be:
1. 83 Moses
2. 08 Chris Paul
3. 05 Steve Nash

Hopefully I'll get my reasoning in later. I was sick yesterday and missed the last thread (among other things).

[70sFan]

PGs:
1. 08 Chris Paul
2/3. 05 Nash/96 Penny
4/5. 99 Kidd/85 IT

I still don't know, why do you have Penny, Kidd and Thomas over Frazier? Are they really that much better on offense (I think they are worse, maybe save for Penny)? Because Walt has clear edge on defense -HUGE EDGE (save for Kidd, but 1999 isn't his defensive peak).

[RSCD3_]

Ballot

21. Paul 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

Spoiler:

22. Kobe 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

23. Durant 14 +5.50 (+5.50 O/+0.00 D)

24. Ewing 90 +5.50 (+2.50 O/+3.00 D)

25. Kobe 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

26. K. Malone 95 +5.50 (+4.25 O/+1.25 D)

27. Nash 07 +5.50 (+6.50 O/-1.00 D)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Paul:

Spoiler:

I actually think he was better in the 09 RS and even better the 10 RS before injury, but dropped off/got injured in the PS and the rest of the 10 RS.

I prefer those years over post 2010 injury - I think he was just better at putting pressure on the defense. IMO 08 or 09 Paul on the 12-15 Clippers would have been just as, if not more successful. Slightly weaker shooting, but he was quicker, craftier and the rest of his abilities were about the same (playmaking, probing, pace control, etc. were already all-time level in his NO years).

I think his defense is slightly better in LAC, but I don't see it as a huge enough shift to pick any year from 12-15.

Nash:

Spoiler:

Offense from 05-07 is ATG, even 08/10 are awesome. 07 stands out and his defense is also less bad than other years, so it comes out as the best combination of the two. GOAT level PnR creation/probing, exceptional at creating and recognizing matchup disadvantages and quick/instinctive reactions, complete control of the game pace/tempo, just a masterful offensive player.

So is Kobe your 22nd or 25th, he's listed twice.

[E-Balla]

PGs:
1. 08 Chris Paul
2/3. 05 Nash/96 Penny
4/5. 99 Kidd/85 IT

I still don't know, why do you have Penny, Kidd and Thomas over Frazier? Are they really that much better on offense (I think they are worse, maybe save for Penny)? Because Walt has clear edge on defense -HUGE EDGE (save for Kidd, but 1999 isn't his defensive peak).

I think Clyde is a tough one. On one hand he's more successful than all of these guys but I find it hard to put him over Kidd and I see Penny as clearly over Kidd. Strangest part is when making my ATL Clyde is about the same as Wade and Nash... I might put 72 Walt on the same level as Nash and Penny. I mean in 72 Walt shut down Jerry West (shot 33% in the Finals) and averaged 23/8/8 on 59% from the field at the same time. It's strange but it's like my gut is telling me his peak isn't as good as theirs but when I'm evaluating his career IMO he's clearly better than them.

Also I don't see a huge defensive edge over Penny but maybe it's because I partially remember Phoenix Penny and he was a good defender. Always assumed he was about the same in Orlando but I'd love to hear another opinion.

[SideshowBob]

So is Kobe your 22nd or 25th, he's listed twice.

Fixed that 22nd.

[Dr Positivity]

Ballot 1 - Chris Paul 2008

Ballot 2 - Karl Malone 1995

Ballot 3 - Charles Barkley 1990

Tough between Barkley/Moses, I prefer the player with more spacing for now

Going to throw out another name - Walt Frazier. Frazier in 72 is a 23/7/6 on .576 (compared to league average more like .60 TS% is in 2015) with elite defense and is one of those guys who people claim on the high end of his "Did more than his numbers" eye test.

Why Chris Paul 08 over 11? Or one of the Clippers versions? Do you really think CP was at his peak at 22 years old? Isn't that a bit odd?

Why Karl Malone 95, not 94? Malone's PS numbers in 95 are kinda skewed by the fact that Rockets did not have a PF and were getting abused all PS long. On the other hand, Malone was excellent in 94 PS, in my mind his best PS run, considering competition (Robinson, Mutombo, Hakeem, 3 of top-5 defenders ever).

Why do you think Frazier 72 was an elite defender? Is there any data to support this?

Re: 08 Paul - I don't love voting for such a young version of a player, but I can't vote for 09 with his health/production in the playoffs and then any improvement in skill/IQ after comes with giving up the more dominant penetration of younger versions. The biggest difference in the Clippers years is better defense. Although the best Clippers Paul has a case, 08 Paul was uniquely ahead of his age level in skill and IQ, so I am ok with taking that to get his physical prime driving to the basket. 2011 Paul? Although he had the great series against the Lakers to make up for subdued playoff numbers in regular season, 08 Paul's 1st rd against the Mavs may be the most dominant series of his career, so I don't see the case to take 11 Paul just because of a strong 1st rd

95 Malone over 94 Malone - well Malone in 94 regular season has one of the worst statistical years of his prime, so that's why I didn't pick it, though I'm willing to look at it closer before deciding

Frazier - in addition to the perennial 1st team all defense (not always trustworthy I know, after Kobe) he's a famously good defensive player, I don't think there's much doubt about his ability on that end any more than there is for say Jason Kidd

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HihQ1v0W3M4[/youtube]

My biggest reservation with Frazier is his style of offensive game is somewhat extinct for PGs in modern day (posting up until he gets a good midrange shot) but it's hard to know how different he would play in 2015, whether the extra spacing would allow him to be penetration first, whether he would hit 3s, whether his assists would go up with 3s to pass to, etc. Same goes for Oscar Robertson

[Dr Positivity]

Re: Steve Nash. I started to become skeptical of prime Nash after I made my own stat this summer (taking into account volume, defense, spacing and efficiency) and Nash was the recent star season I plugged in who popped up as having "holy crap" levels of rating far below his reputation. Now I'm not going to go into the details since trusting one stat is bad, especially one I created myself, but to explain why he rated low:

Defensively there's not much to elaborate on here, the Suns were multiple points worse defensively with him on during his prime years. For modern players I used DRPM as the main tool to rate defense as the best option available, when I did Nash tbh I forgot what I used between RAPM (if the J.E. site was still up), DBPM or raw defensive +/-, either way most signs statistical or visual point towards a below average defender

Floor spacing/creating spacing for teammates: This is where I come down lower on Nash than consensus. Now as I understand it there are two ways to think about creating space for a teammate. One is pure off the ball floor spacing - eg. Ryan Anderson stands at the 3pt line usually without the ball and a big man is dragged out of the paint to guard him. The other one is when an on the ball player sucks defenders to him such as Shaq in the paint draws multiple defenders and then passes it out to open shooters. In my stat my 4 areas of rating a player were volume, defense, "floor spacing" and then efficiency of possessions vs replacement. What the volume category does is account for that Shaq-effect of creating space. Players are given more credit for taking more possessions with the expectation that this means they drew more attention of defenders to them which may have created for teammates. The other floor spacing category thus is to account for the off the ball type of floor stretching only, which I used a combination of distance of FGAs and % of FGM assisted to help determine

To give an example of the difference, 2015 James Harden rated as a monster in the volume of possession categories but rated below average in the off ball spacing category. Despite having better 3pt numbers than Ariza and Beverley he rated as dramatically worse in that spacing category because those players are off the ball shooters signified by how much more of their shots were assisted. But in the volume of possessions category Harden got far more credit than Ariza or Beverley to help close the gap. Thus from a "creating space for teammates" I believe Harden was properly credited when taking into account being a super high volume but ball dominant player. (Ariza and Beverley may have been overcredited, I think a flaw in the system is recognizing "teams are leaving you open for a reason" lack of respect for high volume 3pt shooters. Ariza rated 3rd in the league behind Korver and Redick in the off ball spacing value and as a top 20 player in the league overall, which I am skeptical of) The reason I call this relevant to prime Nash is that he's as ball dominant 2015 Harden (2005 Nash and 2015 Harden have near identical assisted % on their FGs) but the difference is that his volume of possessions used is nowhere near Harden. So by those numbers Nash isn't spacing the floor his teammates by playing off the ball, and he's not having the volume scoring vacuum effect either. In addition to the defense this brought his performance down to surprisingly low levels, despite getting the credit for being incredibly good at using possessions efficiently by shooting and passing at high level. Still even at that level despite his amazing TS% he does turn the ball over, so using the stat ORTG taking into account assist and turnovers Nash and Chris Paul are close to even despite Nash's TS% advantage

Now the positive side for Nash is that he had enormous +/-/offensive RAPM performance and his team stats were dominant offensively, even in years like without Amare in 06. With that said I think Nash was in offensive systems and rosters. Even seasons like 2011 and 2012 Nash for example lining up Channing Frye at center to go 4/5 out and having Alvin Gentry as the coach, is offense-first situation. Personally I would lean towards 2015 Chris Paul being as good offensively as any version of Nash and better defensively

[JordansBulls]

1. Moses Malone 1983 (Dominant on the season and playoffs, led team to one of the greatest seasons of all time and the greatest playoff run considered by many)
2. Karl Malone 1997 (led team to the finals and best record in conference. Knocked off Shaq/Kobe and then Hakeem/Drexler/Barkley)
3. Rick Barry 1975 Led team to Title for a franchise that never won and put the team on his back leading them.

[drza]

Ugh. Computer just ate my post. Don't have the energy to re-type everything at the moment, so just going to vote:

1) Karl Malone 98
2) Moses Malone 83
3) Scottie Pippen 95

[Clyde Frazier]

Ballot #1 - 83 Moses
Ballot #2 - 08 Paul
Ballot #3 - 72 Frazier

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

[Be sure to click on the youtube links as they don't seem to be embedding correctly right now]

Ballot #1 - 83 Moses

The main thing that sticks out to me here: I think people tend to forget how rare it is when a team wins a championship in the first year after adding a major piece like moses. Celtics did it in 08, but heat failed to do it with lebron in 2011, shaq in 97, gasol in 08, etc. So i'd point to moses' ability to adapt to that team at such a high level a skill in of itself. He had a dominant reg season and performed even better come playoff time. What he did well, he did extremely well. That's enough for me over a more versatile skill set another player might bring.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z_OY9U2kV0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvSefa4wNJM

Ballot #2 - 08 Paul

Could change my vote by the next thread, but at least comfortable with Paul here for now. As an aside, only 6 players in NBA history have had a higher single season WS/48 mark than 09 Paul (min 65 GP). Going with 08 as it was his better combo of reg season and post season play. More than deserving of MVP that season, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THzAvrBQE5g

Ballot #3 - 72 Frazier

I'd like to go with one of the championship years, but 72 was his best combo of RS and PS, so sticking with that for now. Reed didn't play in the finals, so the knicks just had no match for wilt, who put up 19.4 PPG and 23.2 RPG on 60% from the field. West was actually held to 19.8 PPG on 32.5% from the field in the series (24.8 PPG on 47.7% FG in RS)! Clyde was certainly doing work in that series on both ends of the court.

RS: 23.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.8 APG, 57.6% TS (+7.2% vs. league avg), .223 WS/48

PS: 24.3 PPG, 7 RPG, 6.1 APG, 58.6% TS, .227 WS/48

Matching / exceeding his already stellar reg season play is very impressive.

A quick note about frazier's defense: people tend to say "racking up steals doesn't mean you're a good defender", but that's typically referring to guys who gamble on D for the steal. Frazier rarely did that. He got his steals by playing the passing lanes, and uniquely knocking the ball out of the players' hands by tapping it from behind. His size at 6'4" allowed him to guard both positions, and he was quick enough to body up smaller guys and make it difficult for them.

I think he's more than deserving of a spot in this range.

https://youtu.be/TVaCNzvvNf0?t=1m1s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bYpndoQOiU -- Yeah, it's an AS game, but it's from 72 specifically, and gives a nice look at him from that year

[Narigo]

1. 1997 Karl Malone
Karl Malone is one of the greatest off ball big man ever. Excellent roll man and hes really good at getting in position to score. Great finsiher. Pretty good spot up shooter. He improved as a playmaker post 96.

2. 1983 Moses Malone
Pretty good low post player who likes to post up on the left block. He gets alot of defensive attention in the post area which frees up his teammates. One of the best rebounders on the offensive glass. In 1983, he was an above average defender

3. 2008 Chris Paul

[eminence]

Keeping the same ballot from last time:

1st Ballot Chris Paul 07-08

2nd Ballot Moses Malone 82-83

3rd Ballot Dwight Howard 08-09 Not firmly set on this one, but would like to see some discussion on Dwight. He's probably the last great defensive big who'll deserve mention for quite a while on the list(Gilmore next?). His offensive game is limited but effective which drops him to the bottom of that group for me, but just thematically I'd pretty much always rather start with a great defensive big who can give me some offense over a great offensive big (why I have him over Barkley/Karl).

[bastillon]

Ugh. Computer just ate my post. Don't have the energy to re-type everything at the moment, so just going to vote:

1) Karl Malone 98
2) Moses Malone 83
3) Scottie Pippen 95

Any reason to vote for 34 year old Malone instead of his actual peak version from the mid 90s?

1. 1997 Karl Malone
Karl Malone is one of the greatest off ball big man ever. Excellent roll man and hes really good at getting in position to score. Great finsiher. Pretty good spot up shooter. He improved as a playmaker post 96.

2. 1983 Moses Malone
Pretty good low post player who likes to post up on the left block. He gets alot of defensive attention in the post area which frees up his teammates. One of the best rebounders on the offensive glass. In 1983, he was an above average defender

3. 2008 Chris Paul

No he didn't. There is no data that would support this. He improved as a passer in the mid 90s and since then averaged about 4 assists till 00s. In terms of actual playmaking he regressed significantly because he wasn't driving at his defender as much as he did in the mid 90s. Lost a lot of speed and quickness. Not to mention, Malone lost a lot of stamina. In the mid 90s Malone was playing pretty much 46 mpg when it was required. That never happened in the late 90s.

[bballexpert]

Keeping the same ballot from last time:

1st Ballot Chris Paul 07-08

2nd Ballot Moses Malone 82-83

3rd Ballot Dwight Howard 08-09 Not firmly set on this one, but would like to see some discussion on Dwight. He's probably the last great defensive big who'll deserve mention for quite a while on the list(Gilmore next?). His offensive game is limited but effective which drops him to the bottom of that group for me, but just thematically I'd pretty much always rather start with a great defensive big who can give me some offense over a great offensive big (why I have him over Barkley/Karl).

You know everyone says this was Lebrons peak like his best year and Howard was able to eliminate himwith a team that was almost as weak which is impressive. Howard did get killed by the Lakers but Kobe and Pau combo with solid role players is to much to handle for how weak his team was. I mean his defense was insane and his offense was not greatest but great that year.

[trex_8063]

Ugh. Computer just ate my post. Don't have the energy to re-type everything at the moment, so just going to vote:

Don't know if it was your computer or the RealGM site being weird (the latter happens a lot for me); I ALWAYS copy a long post before clicking "submit" as a result.

[bastillon]

I feel like Karl Malone is getting underrated in this project. He has a rep of choking in the playoffs and some of it was deserved. But when Malone was at his best in the mid 90s, he didn't really have any bad series and he was facing top competition. Barkley got overrated a bit in this project because while his offensive impact was great, it was not as great as his raw stats would suggest. On the other hand, Barkley 90 was legitimately one of the worst defensive players in the league. Meanwhile Karl Malone was one of the best post defenders of all-time.

Here's some highlights of Malone's defense:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_ezVqa2Z8o[/youtube]

This is Malone at age 40 shutting down Tim Duncan:
G5 Lakers-Spurs 2004
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xnlk7hAjhX0[/youtube]

G6 Lakers-Spurs 2004
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN0z-fOLIuc[/youtube]

[bballexpert]

I feel like Karl Malone is getting underrated in this project. He has a rep of choking in the playoffs and some of it was deserved. But when Malone was at his best in the mid 90s, he didn't really have any bad series and he was facing top competition. Barkley got overrated a bit in this project because while his offensive impact was great, it was not as great as his raw stats would suggest. On the other hand, Barkley 90 was legitimately one of the worst defensive players in the league. Meanwhile Karl Malone was one of the best post defenders of all-time.

Here's some highlights of Malone's defense:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_ezVqa2Z8o[/youtube]

This is Malone at age 40 shutting down Tim Duncan:
G5 Lakers-Spurs 2004
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xnlk7hAjhX0[/youtube]

G6 Lakers-Spurs 2004
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN0z-fOLIuc[/youtube]

Eh i don't feel Duncan 21/21/2/4 on 541 ts is really not a huge shut down the other game more so but Duncans team was not doing anything and he was still scoring 20 points with Ts that was not horrid with Shaq being back up for Malone. The spurs team was weaker big time outside of Duncan i mean Manu was the only other guy doing ok. At the same time he could only play 28 mins which is not that much playing time in ps games when everything is on the line i think getting shut down is kinda overstatement.