Peaks Project #26

[trex_8063]

RealGM Greatest Player Peaks of All-Time List
1. Michael Jordan ('91---unanimous)
2. Shaquille O'Neal ('00---unanimous)
3. Lebron James ('13---non-unanimous ('09, '12))
4. Wilt Chamberlain ('67---non-unanimous ('64))
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('77---non-unanimous ('71, '72))
6. Hakeem Olajuwon ('94---non-unanimous ('93))
7. Tim Duncan ('03---non-unanimous ('02))
8. Kevin Garnett ('04---unanimous)
9. Bill Russell ('65---non-unanimous ('62, '64))
10. Magic Johnson ('87---unanimous)
11. Larry Bird ('86---non-unanimous ('87, '88))
12. David Robinson ('95---non-unanimous ('94, '96))
13. Bill Walton ('77---unanimous)
14. Julius Erving ('76---unanimous)
15. Oscar Robertson ('64---non-unanimous ('63))
16. Dwyane Wade ('09---non-unanimous ('06, '10))
17. Stephen Curry ('15---unanimous)
18. Dirk Nowitzki ('11---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
19. Jerry West ('66---non-unanimous ('68, '69))
20. Kevin Durant ('14---unanimous)
21. Patrick Ewing ('90---unanimous)
22. Tracy McGrady ('03---unanimous)
23. Kobe Bryant ('08---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
24. Charles Barkley ('90---non-unanimous ('93))
25. Moses Malone ('83---unanimous)
26. ???

OK, who wants to start us off?
Target stop time for this one will be Sunday morning.

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[RSCD3_]

1. Paul
2. Howard

Considering Karl Malone, Anthony Davis and Alonzo Mourning for big men.

Steve Nash, James Harden, Vince Carter and Reggie Miller are the guards/wings on my radar at the moment.

Need your thoughts PC BOARD on Malone Vs Davis and who the best of Carter, Miller and Harden is In Your Opinion

Final Ballot

1. 08 Chris Paul
2. 09 Dwight

Has the best combination of passing and efficient scoring ( at a moderately high volume 22-24 PPG level. His added speed is more dangerous to opposing defenses because he can drive to the rim with a lot more ease and the added space he got from defenders sagging helped his playmaking ability be at near the same level back then even though his technical passing ability has probably increased by a decent margin.

2008 RS 29.9 PP100 on 57.6 TS% ( +3.6 RelTS% ), 5.7 RP100, 16.4 AP100 on 4.31 AST%/TOV% Ratio, 0.284 WS/48,116/97 RTG
2008 PS 32.9 PP100 on 56.5 TS% ( +2.5 RelTS% ), 6.7 RP100, 15.4 AP100 on 6.34 AST%/TOV% Ratio, 0.289 WS/48, 126/107 RTG

2. Dwight Howard 2009.

A great defensive presence and he was disciplined offensively causing him to yield his highest offensive impact. Was a huge part of the magics upset over the Cavs. Poor ending series but I cut a little slack as he wasn't even supposed to be there.

2009 RS 28.2 PP100 on 61.9 TS% ( +8.5 RelTS% ) 19.3 RP100, 1.8 AP100 on 0.38 AST%/TOV% Ratio, 0.200 WS/48, 113/99 RTG
2009 PS 24.8 PP100 on 58.9 TS% ( +5.5 RelTS% ) 20.4 RP100, 1.2 AP100 on 0.23 AST%/TOV% Ratio, 0.172 WS/48, 113/102 RTG

[MyUniBroDavis]

1. Paul
2. Howard

Considering Karl Malone, Anthony Davis and Alonzo Mourning for big men.

Steve Nash, James Harden, Vince Carter and Reggie Miller are the guards/wings on my radar at the moment.

Need your thoughts PC BOARD on Malone Vs Davis and who the best of Carter, Miller and Harden is In Your Opinion

Final Ballot

1. 08 Chris Paul
2. 09 Dwight

Has the best combination of passing and efficient scoring ( at a moderately high volume 22-24 PPG level. His added speed is more dangerous to opposing defenses because he can drive to the rim with a lot more ease and the added space he got from defenders sagging helped his playmaking ability be at near the same level back then even though his technical passing ability has probably increased by a decent margin.

2008 RS 29.9 PP100 on 57.6 TS% ( +3.6 RelTS% ), 5.7 RP100, 16.4 AP100 on 4.31 AST%/TOV% Ratio, 0.284 WS/48,116/97 RTG
2008 PS 32.9 PP100 on 56.5 TS% ( +2.5 RelTS% ), 6.7 RP100, 15.4 AP100 on 6.34 AST%/TOV% Ratio, 0.289 WS/48, 126/107 RTG

2. Dwight Howard 2009.

A great defensive presence and he was disciplined offensively causing him to yield his highest offensive impact. Was a huge part of the magics upset over the Cavs. Poor ending series but I cut a little slack as he wasn't even supposed to be there.

2009 RS 28.2 PP100 on 61.9 TS% ( +8.5 RelTS% ) 19.3 RP100, 1.8 AP100 on 0.38 AST%/TOV% Ratio, 0.200 WS/48, 113/99 RTG
2009 PS 24.8 PP100 on 58.9 TS% ( +5.5 RelTS% ) 20.4 RP100, 1.2 AP100 on 0.23 AST%/TOV% Ratio, 0.172 WS/48, 113/102 RTG

I'm a huge fan of Davis, but my knowledge on Malone is limited, and from what I've heard I doubt Davis has a good arguement.

I'll try to argue for him if someone it gets traction, if that makes sense, so probably in the next 1 or 2 threads

[bastillon]

If we altered Narigo's statement just slightly to "improved as playmaker post-95", the statement would basically be true (thus, this general argument of late-90's Malone vs. early-mid 90's Malone would still stand). And the data would do little else but support this......

Malone's five best seasons by Ast/100 possessions: ‘03 (6.9), ‘01 (6.7), ‘97 (6.5), ‘04 (6.2), ‘99 (6.1)--->all five occurred post-'96.
Avg of ‘94-’95: 4.9. Avg of ‘96-’04: 6.2; or avg of '96-'98: 6.0
**also: I like how you call a jump from 4.9 to 6.0 (increase of 22.5%) "not significant"......but the 7.0-7.6% jump in playoff mpg (the difference between '94 and '97 or '99) is apparently hugely significant.

Malone's five best seasons by AST%: ‘97 (24.5%), ‘01 (24.1%), ‘99 (23.0%), ‘02 (21.8%), and ‘98/’00 (20.9%)--->all six of these occurred post-'96 (and '96 would be 7th, btw).
Avg of ‘94-’95: 16.8%. Avg of '96-'98: 22.0%. Avg of ‘96-’04: 22.3%.

Malone's five best seasons by AST%:TOV% ratio: ‘97 (2.207), ‘96 (2.102), ‘03 (2.068), ‘01 (1.868), and ‘00 (1.833).
Avg of ‘94-’95: 1.500. Avg of '96-'98: 2.018. Avg of ‘96-’04: 1.843.


And btw, your assertion that any statistical indicators of improvement in playmaking are all associated with Stockton's reduced role appear undermined by the fact that Stockton saw no such reduction in minutes or role until '98 (two years AFTER we see an apparent improvement in all of Malone's passing/playmaking stats). And arguably his BEST statistical year for playmaking ('97) is a year before Stockton's reduced role.

This is probably the point in the conversation where you switch gears from the "there is no data to support this", to something in the "if you just watch the tape...." personal-eye-test-and-I-won't-have-anyone-tell-me-different vein.


wrt your position that '94 Malone is much better defensively than late-90's Malone......
While I agree with your sentiment pertaining to Malone being an under-appreciated defender, I disagree with the notion that he was better in '94 than he was in the late 90's. Take note of the content in the videos you've provided as evidence of his defensive prowess: in the "Karl Malone - Defense" video, I count 26 clips, and ALL of them are from post-'96; otherwise you have one video from '99, and the rest showing his defense in '04. Your assertion being that he was just as good (only more athletic) when he was younger. As someone who watched Malone a fair bit throughout the 90's and '00's, I simply do not agree.
Personally, I feel he was much more shrewd and cunning a defender late in his career; by the late 90's he had just sort of figured out all the tricks to make the most of his defensive abilities (like the "pulling the chair", which he did better than anyone in history imo).
And fwiw:
'94 and '95-->no All-Def honors either year.
'97-'99--->All-Defensive 1st Team all three years.


Anyway.....Sure, Malone of '94 or '95 had a little more motor (though Malone at 34 still had more motor than most players in their 20's), was a touch more explosive; I won't deny those things. But late-90's Malone was at least a touch better at all the skill components of the game: better in the mid-range (that's my eye-test, I cannot substantiate that with data), marginally better FT-shooter (data supports this; your arguments would suggest fatigue is a larger factor for late-90's version, so if anything his FT% should be worse if all other things equal), better passer (eye-test, but data above supports this, too, even prior to reduced Stockton role), better defender (eye-test, accolades, visual evidence which you yourself provided all support this).

It's not a big margin, and it's not like I don't see the case for an earlier version of Malone; but that's why most of us are going with the later version.

First of all, you would benefit a lot from keeping an open mind. You are blindly arguing that 30 year old Karl Malone was worse than 33-34 year old. Even at first glance it makes no sense. TL; DR after the spoiler tag.

Spoiler:

You are misusing the stats. I already responded to that ast% argument. That stat is useless to what you are trying to show. Just because Malone had more assists within his team does not mean that he improved as a playmaker. Since you are unwilling to understand this simple argument, let me give an example:

Player A gets 10 assists a game. His team gets 20 assists a game. His ast% is 50%.
Then, player A gets 12 assists a game, but his team gets 24 assists a game and his ast%, despite averaging more assists, stays the same.
Then, player A drops to 8 assists a game. At the same time, his team completely collapses and averages only 15 assists a game. Player A is now over 50% in ast%. But there is no doubt that he regressed significantly.

Conclusion: ast% is a useless stat in judging individual performance. That is not the point of this statistic. It shows player's contribution to team's assists, not his individual performance as such.

The stat you wanna be using is ast per 100 possessions. It makes no sense to compare player's assists to what his team was doing. Malone did slightly improve in that regard ~5 to ~6 assists per 100 possessions. But like I said, it was due to the fact that his role was bigger in those years. This is what ast% (and usg%) specifically shows.

Let's look at Stockton's role within the team. Now using ast% and usg% makes sense because it shows % relative to his entire team, in other words, describes Stockton's role within the team. I will use 96-97 as a point of comparison since you seem to be contesting that Stockton's role within his team changed in any way:

90-95: 20% usage%, 54% assists%
96-97: 18.5% usage%, 47.5% assists%.

That looks like a pretty significant difference to me. At the same time Malone's assists% and usage% suddenly skyrocketed to career highs... hm wonder why that is. Stockton is not the only one whose role was lesser. Also Hornacek was less used after about 95.

Honestly the concept that a player like Malone would become a better "playmaker" at the age of 33 is laughable to me. Stockton's lesser role in late 90s and Malone carrying more burden are widely known and has been repeated on realGM many many times in the past. I should not repeat them once again. Regrettably, given your arguments, I had to.

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Now, back to the argument on Malone's allegedly better playmaking. The stat I will use is assists per 100 possessions, because that is what measures individual performance. Malone averaged 1 assist more per 100 possessions... but he also played less mins which somewhat diminishes that gap. But most importantly, that was in the RS.

What happened in the PS:
94-95: AST/100 4.4, TOV/100 2.9, AST/game 3.5, TOV/game 2.4
96-98: AST/100 4.9, TOV/100 3.8, AST/game 3.5, TOV/game 2.7

Any way you look at it, no improvement. The paradox of your argument is that you are voting for 97 when Malone had one of his career lows in playoff assists (2.9 assists per game, 2.7 tov). So if better playmaking was the distinctive indicator, then you are contradicting yourself.

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As for Malone's defense, those clips mainly come from early 00s because probably that is what the author had available. In case you didn't know, early/mid 90s Jazz games are not exactly everywhere. Malone may have been a great defender even well into 00s (heck he destroyed Duncan at 40 years old), but still he was not as good as in the mid 90s. 94 Malone's defense on D-Rob was probably the best he ever played. But yes, you do need to watch the tape to know this.

Just looking at raw stats you can see that Malone was better in the mid 90s:

RS:
94-95: 8.7 DRB, 1.5 STL, 1.3 BLK
96-98: 7.7 DRB, 1.4 STL, 0.6 BLK

PS:
94-95: 9.4 DRB, 1.4 STL, 0.7 BLK
96-98: 8.2 DRB, 1.4 STL, 0.8 BLK
In the playoffs he was facing far superior competition in 94-95 (Hakeem-Thorpe, Robinson-Rodman, Mutombo-Ellis, Hakeem-Brown).

Now if you look at performance of his opponents in the mid 90s, and the same players in the late 90s, you will see that he played better defense in the mid 90s. I don't have the time to dig into those stats, unfortunately.

-------------------------------------------------------------

The biggest difference between mid 90s Malone and late 90s Malone was playoff efficiency. In short, mid 90s Malone faced far superior players and still delivered 53-54% TS and 113 ORtg, meanwhile late 90s Malone, while facing inferior opponents delivered 51-52% TS and 105 ORtg.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall 94 Malone vs 97 Malone in the PS:
94 Malone - 27 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 2.1 tov, 1.4 stl, 0.8 blk, 53.1% TS, 113 ORtg, 24.6 PER, 0.209 WS48
vs. Robinson/Rodman, Mutombo/Ellis, Hakeem/Thorpe

97 Malone - 26 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.7 tov, 1.4 stl, 0.8 blk, 50.1% TS, 105 ORtg, 22.2 PER, 0.127 WS48
vs. Lorenzen Wright/Loy Vaught, Shaq/Campbell, Hakeem/Barkley, Rodman/Longley

Those PS performances really show just how much Malone regressed. Despite playing much inferior opponents, Malone performed significantly worse. That is the combined effect of lower stamina, regressed athleticism and being too heavily reliant on a jumpshot.

[bastillon]

Case for Karl Malone 94.

Usually the criticism regarding Malone is his PS performance. But this is not the case in 94. He played extremely well in his first two rounds, massacred Robinson and then prevailed vs Mutombo. Even though he wasn't the most efficient player vs Houston, he still played well given the circumstances (Stockton dropped the ball really hard vs Rockets). For details: see previous post.

Here is the plus/minus per 100 possessions for a few stars that season. I used teams pace to estimate the # of possessions. Not perfect, but it works well.

Code: Select all

           On   Off   Net +/-
Robinson   9.4   -10.5   19.9
Malone     7.3   -10.3   17.6
Hakeem     7.0   -7.5   14.5
Shaq       5.5   -2.2   7.7
Stockton   6.3   -1.0   7.3
Pippen     5.4   -1.5   6.9
Ewing      9.1   2.7   6.3

Robinson was killing it in plus/minus that season. The Spurs completely collapsed without him. His +19.9 is really high. Only a few players in recent years have surpassed that (like 03/04 KG and 09 LeBron)

Thanks to Elgee and Fplii, I was able to use that data to create a regressed version of RAPM.

I used 2014 Gotbuckets RAPM
Here were the inputs
2014 On per 100 possessions
2014 off per 100 possesssions
Minutes played
PER
WS/48

Using those 5 variables, I was able to come up with a formula with a R^2 value of 0.62 to 2014 Gotbuckets RAPM. Then I used those 5 variables for the 1994 players to create a regressed RAPM. The 2nd to last column is Regressed RAPM. The last column is Regressed RAPM adjusted to the variance of the 2014 Gotbuckets RAPM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VSPxw_RVZ-WBOHM5J434efmLjMYGVYi8CrA59WS7GuA/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Top 20
1 David Robinson 5.77
2 Kevin Willis 4.30
3 Karl Malone 4.24
4 Hakeem Olajuwon 4.03
5 Nate McMillan 3.83
6 Ricky Pierce 3.27
7 Mookie Blaylock 3.25
8 Shaquille O'Neal 3.23
9 Stacey Augmon 3.12
10 Patrick Ewing 2.88
11 Dikembe Mutombo 2.87
12 Reggie Miller 2.69
13 Charles Barkley 2.60
14 John Stockton 2.59
15 Mark Price 2.49
16 Kevin Johnson 2.46
17 Shawn Kemp 2.45
18 Scottie Pippen 2.45
19 Dale Ellis 2.43
20 Horace Grant 2.30

source: viewtopic.php?t=1343246

Not only did he have a very strong PS performance. But he had a strong impact in +/- stats as well. Was on top of the league basically along with Robinson and Hakeem. Even if those numbers are full of noise, it's still more than likely that these were top3 players in 94. Also like I mentioned Malone destroyed Robinson in the playoffs, making him probably the better player overall that year.

Malone struggled a bit with RS efficiency that year, specifically after Hornacek's trade (only 53% TS) but it was somewhat to be expected given a pretty big restructuring of Jazz offense. For those of you who don't know this, Hornacek's trade was what triggered Utah's improvement on offense. After that trade, Jazz became a dominant offensive team, with Karl Malone as focal point of that offense.

[Narigo]

My top 3 so far will be
1. 1997 Karl Malone
2. 2008 Chris Paul
3. 1972 Walt Frazier

I will edit my post with more info later

[RebelWithACause]

Sorry, been away for quite a bit.
Trying to get back into the project now.

PG ballot:
1. Nash
2. Penny
3. Paul
4. Baron

Wing ballot:
1. Hill
2. Pippen
3. Ginobili / Carter

Big men ballot:
Malone?!
Really not sure here.

That's my ballot going forward position wise.


My overall ballot going forward:

1. Nash 2005
2. Penny 1996
3. Paul 2015
4. Baron 2007
5. Hill 2000
6. Pippen (undecided)
7. Malone?! Could see him higher here

Nash at number 1, since he is one of my offensive GOATS and while his defense hurts him, at that position he has to come into play.
Higher offensive ceiling than Paul.

Penny was a monster in 96. Rating out even better than Shaq by most metrics I care about.
So versatile, incredible playmaker and scorer. Very high resiliency because of his skillset.

Paul at 3. Those 3 PG's are pretty much interchangeable.
For Paul it's kind of difficult, because in 08 his defense wasn't quite there and he wasn't as Savy and experienced by then.
09 he has the PS problem. 11 the RS wasn't all that. 15 there are health problems in the PS.
This nuances puts him below those other 2 for me.
I don't see that high of an offensive ceiling with him as with Nash, even though last year he really got close.

If I find the time, I would like to compare those 3 a bit more in depth and also explain why Baron is almost
up there with those 3 guys for me.

Mourning and Ginobili are two other guys I am getting closer to talk about.

[70sFan]

1st ballot - Karl Malone 1994/1998
2nd ballot- Bob McAdoo 1975
3rd ballot - Chris Paul (undecided year)


It's time for picking CP3. He is clearly better player overall than Curry in my opinion. I'm not sure about year, because he is better defender as a Clipper and I like his style more than during Hornets years.
I have CP3 over Nash mainly because of defense. I think Nash was better offensive player at his peak than Paul, but I can't ignore defensive gap (which is huge). I don't like when people talk: "PGs defense is not important". bull, defense at every position is important (not the same important, but still). CP3 is great defender, one of the best in the league at his postition. Not many guards can be as good as him both on offense AND DEFENSE.

After this trio I'm not sure who should be next. Guys in conversation in my opinion"
PGs - Nash, Frazier
SGs - none right now (even Harden would be lower on my list)
SFs - Baylor, Barry
PFs - Petit, McHale
Cs - Gilmore, Howard, Reed

[Quotatious]

Need your thoughts PC BOARD on Malone Vs Davis

Davis compares favorably to Malone based on boxscore metrics, but honestly, I don't think he had as much impact as Karl had. Brow had great numbers against the Warriors, but I didn't think his impact was as high as his 31.5/11/2 on 61% TS might suggest.

Also, Karl gives you a lot more RS games. If you replace Davis with Malone on last season's Pelicans, you probably get 50 wins.

So, this is Karl for me.

2006 Elton Brand vs Davis is a great comparison. I think Brand is much closer to Malone than most people would like to admit (and he also gives you 11 more RS games than Davis, so I'd probably argue that he's more valuable, even if he's slightly inferior on a per-game basis). Peak Brand was the closest thing to prime Malone that we've seen so far, in terms of skill-set as well as size and production (for what it's worth, EB is a way better shotblocker than KM, which is important for a bigman). Also, he was excellent in the playoffs (and quite honestly, I don't think Brand was far behind Kobe or LeBron in '06, that's how good he was - similar boxscore metrics, similar RS and playoff success, all three guys had mediocre supporting casts).

Brand vs McHale is extremely close, IMO.

and who the best of Carter, Miller and Harden is In Your Opinion

I'd go with:

2015 Harden
2001 Carter
1994 or 1995 Miller

I think Harden is clearly the best among them. He may be the worst defender among them, but none of them was a major impact player on D (Reggie was mediocre, Vince was solid but above average at best), and remember that Harden's defense wasn't that bad for most of last season (at least a clear improvement over '13 and '14 in the RS), and I think his advantage in terms of playmaking over the other two guys is just huge. Harden also has the best numbers.

Carter over Miller simply because he's a more well-rounded and dominant player. Reggie played relatively better in the playoffs compared to how good he was in the RS, but he played on a considerably stronger team. He had a mediocre series in the winning effort against the Knicks (3rd best defense in the league that year), and an absolutely terrific series against the Sixers in the losing effort, so contrary to what you might believe at first glance (I mean, him playing on a "one man team" so to speak, so theoretically, there should be high correlation between his own performance and the performance of his team), it's not like you can equate his team's success with his own performance. Carter's all-around statline against the Sixers (also a top 5 defensive team, anchored by DPOY Mutombo and they also had very good wing defenders like McKie and Lynch, to put on VC) is pretty amazing:

30.4 ppg
6.0 rpg
5.6 apg
1.9 spg
2.0 bpg
only 7.4% TOV (extremely low for a perimeter player, that's even lower than prime Jordan had)
56.7% TS (league average that year was 51.8% TS in the regular season, and probably even lower in the playoffs)
47/42/84 shooting splits

That series compares favorably to just about any series that Kobe had in his prime. Amazing. I don't think Reggie was capable of playing such a well-rounded game against an elite team, and average 30 ppg on great efficiency, to boot.

His performance in game 7 was mediocre because his shot didn't fall (only 6/18 from the field), but he was still pretty good in other areas - 7 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks, ZERO turnovers, and he was still aggressive going to the basket (8/9 from foul line).

Honestly, as I analyze his performance in that series, I think it's much closer between Carter and Harden than I previously thought, but I'd still give James the edge (but another thing to consider is that Carter played in a much tougher defensive league than Harden).

Oh, and one more thing about those SGs - I think you definitely have to include '01 Ray Allen, '05 Manu and '09 Brandon Roy in this comparison. I wouldn't take any of them over Harden, but they are very much in the conversation with Carter and Miller.

[bastillon]

1st ballot - Karl Malone 1994/1998
2nd ballot- Bob McAdoo 1975
3rd ballot - Chris Paul (undecided year)


It's time for picking CP3. He is clearly better player overall than Curry in my opinion. I'm not sure about year, because he is better defender as a Clipper and I like his style more than during Hornets years.
I have CP3 over Nash mainly because of defense. I think Nash was better offensive player at his peak than Paul, but I can't ignore defensive gap (which is huge). I don't like when people talk: "PGs defense is not important". bull, defense at every position is important (not the same important, but still). CP3 is great defender, one of the best in the league at his postition. Not many guards can be as good as him both on offense AND DEFENSE.

After this trio I'm not sure who should be next. Guys in conversation in my opinion"
PGs - Nash, Frazier
SGs - none right now (even Harden would be lower on my list)
SFs - Baylor, Barry
PFs - Petit, McHale
Cs - Gilmore, Howard, Reed

CP is insanely overrated as a defender. When did Paul's defense matter in the PS? I only remember CP getting torched in the playoffs. When did his "great defense" matter specifically?

[70sFan]

1st ballot - Karl Malone 1994/1998
2nd ballot- Bob McAdoo 1975
3rd ballot - Chris Paul (undecided year)


It's time for picking CP3. He is clearly better player overall than Curry in my opinion. I'm not sure about year, because he is better defender as a Clipper and I like his style more than during Hornets years.
I have CP3 over Nash mainly because of defense. I think Nash was better offensive player at his peak than Paul, but I can't ignore defensive gap (which is huge). I don't like when people talk: "PGs defense is not important". bull, defense at every position is important (not the same important, but still). CP3 is great defender, one of the best in the league at his postition. Not many guards can be as good as him both on offense AND DEFENSE.

After this trio I'm not sure who should be next. Guys in conversation in my opinion"
PGs - Nash, Frazier
SGs - none right now (even Harden would be lower on my list)
SFs - Baylor, Barry
PFs - Petit, McHale
Cs - Gilmore, Howard, Reed

CP is insanely overrated as a defender. When did Paul's defense matter in the PS? I only remember CP getting torched in the playoffs. When did his "great defense" matter specifically?

So don't you think that Paul is elite defender? Or at least has huge defensive advantage over Nash?

[trex_8063]

1. Paul
2. Howard

Considering Karl Malone, Anthony Davis and Alonzo Mourning for big men.

Somewhat agree with Quotatious regarding Malone v. Davis. Davis has remarkable looking advanced metrics, but there's a bit of a disconnect between those measures and his impact indicators (is #1 in the league in PER, but is only 22nd in RAPM in '15, for example).

Additionally, it's worth noting that PER (due to its formula specs) shines very brightly on extreme low turnover rates. This could be why Davis has the #1 PER (by a fairly decent margin), yet is only 6th in BPM, for instance.

I do think the comparison is close (Davis is coming up fairly shortly for me, at least). Ultimately, I think '15 Davis is probably somewhere in between peak Mailman and '06 Brand.
Mourning is harder for me to gauge, and I tend not to be as high on him as some are. I rate him behind Malone for sure; I possibly rate him marginally behind Davis as well, though I could be convinced otherwise based on defensive impact studies (need to look into it more).

While I've stated that low turnover rates may inflate Davis' status via things like PER, still......turnovers are a bad thing. And Mourning is fairly turnover prone. fwiw, his defensive aggressiveness and impact also came at the expense of quite a few personal fouls, too. These are the primary factors that make me apprehensive about putting him ahead of Davis.

Steve Nash, James Harden, Vince Carter and Reggie Miller are the guards/wings on my radar at the moment.

Without a doubt I'd put Nash and Harden at the head of this quad of guards. Who between those two is open for debate to me (I lean toward Nash presently, but it's close).

[Clyde Frazier]

Posing this question again from an earlier thread:

Totally random, but what are people's thoughts on 2014 love? Box score #s are through the roof, and he had an on/off of +10.9 that season. The wolves' actual per 100 splits while he was on the court were 111.6/106, and they ranked 9th in SRS that season despite them going 40-42. Don't look like empty stats to me as some have suggested over the last year or 2.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.html

[bastillon]

So don't you think that Paul is elite defender? Or at least has huge defensive advantage over Nash?

CP is above average as a defender, but far from elite. His man defense is below average. PG defense has very little significance in general, specifically when your PG is an offensive superstar. Those guys tend to be resting on defense either way.

Some Paul highlights of his playoff defense:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLl0ny9_3DLnEIF2HVCwg2mEifJth1bqk4

[bastillon]

Posing this question again from an earlier thread:

Totally random, but what are people's thoughts on 2014 love? Box score #s are through the roof, and he had an on/off of +10.9 that season. The wolves' actual per 100 splits while he was on the court were 111.6/106, and they ranked 9th in SRS that season despite them going 40-42. Don't look like empty stats to me as some have suggested over the last year or 2.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.html

Poor defensive bigs are huge liabilities in the postseason. Probably the most exploitable weakness in the playoffs. So not much value in terms of winning a title from Love.

[70sFan]

So don't you think that Paul is elite defender? Or at least has huge defensive advantage over Nash?

CP is above average as a defender, but far from elite. His man defense is below average. PG defense has very little significance in general, specifically when your PG is an offensive superstar. Those guys tend to be resting on defense either way.

Some Paul highlights of his playoff defense:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLl0ny9_3DLnEIF2HVCwg2mEifJth1bqk4

So Paul is below average man defender because he can't stop Westbrook and Curry?
I know, he's not all time great defender. He's not Frazier or Payton, or even Van Lier or Cheeks. So what? He's still very good defensive player. Elite when he tries (like Kobe).

[trex_8063]

Posing this question again from an earlier thread:

Totally random, but what are people's thoughts on 2014 love? Box score #s are through the roof, and he had an on/off of +10.9 that season. The wolves' actual per 100 splits while he was on the court were 111.6/106, and they ranked 9th in SRS that season despite them going 40-42. Don't look like empty stats to me as some have suggested over the last year or 2.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.html

I think he's an OK mention at this point, though I'm not ready to lend him support in the immediate future. fwiw, he was only 25th in the league in RAPM, which---similar to Davis---indicates a bit of a disconnect between his box/advanced metrics and his impact. Not saying "empty stats", rather am merely pointing out that his impact appears to lag a little behind his boxscore production. However, I think his RAPM may be marginally depressed by lack of a playoff appearance (although fwiw, his RAPM was slightly behind teammate Ricky Rubio, who I think is much better than his box-related numbers).

And I don't think you can point to the fact that they went from 40-42 in '14 down to 16-66 in '15 as proof of massive impact. They had too many roster changes (lending Wiggins a lot of primacy too early imo, though obv they want to develop this new asset). Also aforementioned Rubio missed 60 games: and note they were 7-15 (.318) in the 22 [sort of sub-standard] games he played, and 9-51 (.150) in the 60 games he missed.
I suspect if Rubio was healthy all year, the TWolves win at least 26-28 games; which is still a drop from '14, but not falling thru the floor as they did.

[bballexpert]

You know if you going to mention Chris and Nash for peaks i think 2003 Kidd should be right there with them. He is a pg that can anchor a Defense and he led the best d in the league 2003 putting up 19/6/9/2 526 ts ps 20/8/8/2 514 ts. They owned pretty much everyone including the next year champ pistons they lost to spurs with peak Duncan which most would anyway. Think he is over looked because of his offense but as for as D impact he **** on Paul and Nash well he is way above Nashs d.

[Clyde Frazier]

Paul and Frazier will more than likely be my first 2 ballots. Will consider karl malone among others for 3rd. Traveling all day, so will put in my final ballot tonight.

[bastillon]

So don't you think that Paul is elite defender? Or at least has huge defensive advantage over Nash?

CP is above average as a defender, but far from elite. His man defense is below average. PG defense has very little significance in general, specifically when your PG is an offensive superstar. Those guys tend to be resting on defense either way.

Some Paul highlights of his playoff defense:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLl0ny9_3DLnEIF2HVCwg2mEifJth1bqk4

So Paul is below average man defender because he can't stop Westbrook and Curry?
I know, he's not all time great defender. He's not Frazier or Payton, or even Van Lier or Cheeks. So what? He's still very good defensive player. Elite when he tries (like Kobe).

Based on what playoff series?