Peaks Project #30

[trex_8063]

RealGM Greatest Player Peaks of All-Time List
1. Michael Jordan ('91---unanimous)
2. Shaquille O'Neal ('00---unanimous)
3. Lebron James ('13---non-unanimous ('09, '12))
4. Wilt Chamberlain ('67---non-unanimous ('64))
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('77---non-unanimous ('71, '72))
6. Hakeem Olajuwon ('94---non-unanimous ('93))
7. Tim Duncan ('03---non-unanimous ('02))
8. Kevin Garnett ('04---unanimous)
9. Bill Russell ('65---non-unanimous ('62, '64))
10. Magic Johnson ('87---unanimous)
11. Larry Bird ('86---non-unanimous ('87, '88))
12. David Robinson ('95---non-unanimous ('94, '96))
13. Bill Walton ('77---unanimous)
14. Julius Erving ('76---unanimous)
15. Oscar Robertson ('64---non-unanimous ('63))
16. Dwyane Wade ('09---non-unanimous ('06, '10))
17. Stephen Curry ('15---unanimous)
18. Dirk Nowitzki ('11---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
19. Jerry West ('66---non-unanimous ('68, '69))
20. Kevin Durant ('14---unanimous)
21. Patrick Ewing ('90---unanimous)
22. Tracy McGrady ('03---unanimous)
23. Kobe Bryant ('08---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
24. Charles Barkley ('90---non-unanimous ('93))
25. Moses Malone ('83---unanimous)
26. Chris Paul ('08---non-unanimous ('15))
27. Karl Malone ('97---non-unanimous ('92/'95/'98))
28. Steve Nash ('07---non-unanimous ('05))
29. Anthony Davis ('15---unanimous)
30. ?????


Start us off someone. Target stop time will probably be Sunday morning.

I'm calling on all the chaps who said "I'm in!" or similar at the start of all this---knowing full well that we were hoping to go out to 40-50 places---and yet haven't been heard from for multiple (possibly well over a dozen) threads. I know this is a leisure past-time for us all, and I can't tell you how to spend your leisure time. But fwiw, when you say "I'm in", you're expressing a certain commitment to the project (imo).
Obviously life happens, and I know some of you are genuinely busy and just can't put in the time; I know there are others who have simply bailed on the project. You know which category you fall into.

Sorry to take you all on a guilt trip, but I'm trying anything I can to get decent length and decent content for this project.

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[trex_8063]

MyUniBroDavis's post had me thinking more and more highly of AD.....I was even considering moving him to my #1 ballot last thread. Again sort of makes it easier with one more candidate off the table. I'm still leaving Harden behind Elgin based on concerns regarding his era portability.


1st ballot: Elgin Baylor '61
To some degree the volume vs. efficiency considerations of Baylor (among others from this era) should be viewed with a bit of leniency, imo, as efficiency and "finding a good shot" just wasn't on anyone's radar in the early 1960's. Any way you slice it, though, Baylor was an excellent (if not quite elite) scorer, and underrated playmaker for the SF position, as well as a GOAT-level rebounder for his position, and likely a better defender than some other perimeter players on the table presently (e.g. Nash, Harden).

Baylor '61 rs per 100 possession estimates: 31.1 pts, 17.75 reb, 4.55 ast @ +2.91% rTS. 28.2 PER, .227 WS/48 in 42.9 mpg
Baylor '61 playoff per 100 possession estimates: 32.5 pts, 13.1 reb, 3.9 ast @ +6.89% rTS (53.83% TS, which would be a little above average even by today's standards). 28.0 PER, .248 WS/48 in 45.0 mpg

Some additional stuff about prime Baylor in general (copied from prior thread):

Spoiler:

Here's some more info regarding Baylor's impact, draw your own conclusions.....

In '58 (before Baylor), the Lakers were 19-53 (.264) with an SRS of -5.78.

In '59 they obtain rookie Elgin Baylor (and he's the only relevant transaction that occurred), and improve to 33-39 (.458) and -1.42 SRS (improvement of 14 wins and +4.36 SRS). They would also make it to the finals by first defeating a -1.36 SRS Detroit team 2-1, and then defeating the +2.89 SRS defending champ St. Louis Hawks 4-2.
wrt to how that improvement was managed......
Yeah, we always tend to think of Baylor as primarily an offensive player; but there's some to suggest he had a significant impact defensively, too. His reputation is mostly as a "decent" (but not great) defender, though I wonder if perhaps his prowess on the glass reduced a lot of easy second-chance opportunities for opponents (he was 3rd in the league in rebounds right off the bat in his rookie season).
Because in terms of rORTG, the Lakers in '58 (before Baylor) were -0.8 (ranked 6th of 8), and in rDRTG were +4.5 (8th of 8, and +2.5 to the 7th place team!). In '59, their rORTG improves to +0.6 (a jump of 1.4, up to 4th of 8); but rDRTG improves to +1.7 (a big jump of 2.8, from a distant last place to 6th of 8).
The team is 33-37 (.471) with him, 0-2 without him.


In '60, an aging Vern Mikkelsen has retired, aging Larry Foust misses some games and is playing a reduced role, too. Meanwhile the offensive primacy of the wildly inefficient (even for the era) Hot Rod Hundley increases, as well as a marginally increase in role for the even worse Slick Leonard (ridiculously bad 37.3% TS.....that's even -9% relative to league avg; similar to someone shooting 44% TS or so today; you'd have to be an elite defender to get ANY playing time at all today, and no way would you be getting 28+ mpg and be 6th on the team in FGA/g.....goes to show how efficiency just wasn't on the radar yet). And they also obtained rookie Rudy LaRusso (who would eventually become a pretty good player, but is a fairly inefficient scorer in his rookie season). They also obtained the somewhat inefficient Frank Selvy as well as an aging 6'11" Ray Felix in mid-season trades.
Anyway, their rORTG falls to -3.4 (8th of 8), though their defense continues to improve to +0.1 rDRTG (4th of 8), as they finish 25-50 (-4.14 SRS).
The team is 23-47 (.329) with him, 2-3 (.400) without him.


In '61, we have the arrival of rookie Jerry West. He's not yet the player he would become, but nonetheless is the clear 2nd-best behind Baylor. This affords them to reduce the role of Hundley and Leonard in the backcourt. rORTG improves to -1.3 (7th of 8), rDRTG continues to improve to -1.2 (4th of 8).
The team is 34-39 (.466) with him, 2-4 (.333) without him.


In '62, West is now a legit superstar, too. Slick Leonard is gone, and Hundley's role is further diminished; LaRusso continues to improve and get more efficient. Non-surprisingly, the team rORTG improves to +1.4 (3rd of 9). Critics might argue Baylor missing games contributed to this improvement in rORTG, but I'm more inclined to think it's the additive effects of a) the improvements in West and LaRusso, b) the loss of Leonard, and c) the reduced role of Hundley; especially in light of the following.......
Baylor misses 32 games, not due to injury, but rather to military service: he's only able to play if he can get a weekend pass to quickly travel to the game, play, and then come back. So he likely barely gets to practice, and yet still establishes himself among the league's elite---->Per 100 possession estimates: 33.6 pts, 16.3 reb, 4.1 ast @ +1.34% rTS in a whopping 44.4 mpg.
The team is 37-11 (.771) with him, 17-15 (.531) without him. Some of his missed games may have overlapped with West's missed games, but the thing is: West only missed 5 games total that year. And NO ONE else in their main rotation missed more than 2 games all year.
They make it to the finals and take the Russell Celtics to 7 games. Baylor averages 40.6 ppg, 17.9 rpg, and 3.7 apg in the series @ 51.0% TS (+3.1 rTS). In a close game 5 victory, Baylor logs [what I think is still an NBA finals record] 61 pts (and I believe 22 reb as well).

EDIT: I'd also add this quote from The Rivalry: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and the Golden Age of Basketball by John Taylor....

.....Fans specifically came to see him [Baylor]. When he was on military duty and playing sporadically, they called the box office before games to ask if he would be appearing. The Lakers front office had run figures calculating Baylor’s ability to sell tickets, and they determined that in games when he did not play, the Lakers drew an average of 2,000 fewer fans. That amounted to approximately $6,000 per game, or $200,000 over the course of a season….

Going back to our agreement that impact = goodness + fit + utilization......I don't think Baylor was utilized ideally (something that I think is unfortunately true for MANY old era players). Yet there's still several indicators of substantial impact circa his peak, especially in '62.

Correctly utilized, I think Baylor would be the best SF not named Lebron or Kevin Durant today: a roughly Carmelo Anthony level of scorer but a better playmaker, a roughly neutral level defender, and possibly the GOAT rebounding SF outside of Shawn Marion (roughly equal to peak Lebron in this regard).


2nd ballot: James Harden '15
Harden's probably the best pure scorer in the league today except for a healthy Durant (better than Nash in this regard). His defense is improved to where I think we'd have to declare '15 Harden a "near-neutral" defender (which is to say: "not bad"). He's also a decent rebounder for his position, and a very good (elite???) level play-maker for his position.
One question mark I have for him: given his style of play, I don't think there's anyone who benefits more from the no hand-checking rule than James Harden. tbh, if not for that consideration, I think Harden probably should have been voted in a few places ago.


3rd ballot: Dwight Howard '11
I kinda went thru a big comparison between Howard/McHale, which I'll copy in the spoiler; it details my difficulty in deciding between the two:

Spoiler:

McHale vs. Dwight is an interesting comparison......
Offense
Peak Dwight is much more athletic and---related to that---is a superior finisher: pretty much devastating when he gets the ball <3 ft from the rim; is basically the GOAT finisher outside of prime Shaq and perhaps peak Robinson (finishing >75% from that range in '10 and '11, despite huge volume there--->like 50+% of his shot load, often going thru 2 or 3 defenders and getting And1's). Has developed a nice little short-range jump hook (with either hand), too. Draws tons of fouls (and was shooting nearly 60% from the FT-line at his peak; which is not good, but not godawful for a big either; getting a 60% ft-shooter to the line is still fairly efficient scoring).

Admittedly, that's where his offensive prowess ends. He has no jump-shot or range to speak of at all, limited repertoire of post-moves, not much of a passer, and a touch turnover prone.
Still, I don't mean to imply offensive mediocrity on his part (many of his critics attempt to do so, and it's absolutely untrue, imo). His hands, strength, explosiveness, etc, allow him to be in a GOAT-level tier when he gets the ball near the rim, and that cannot be trivialized. If taking a hack-a-Howard strategy, peak Howard's not as big a liability at the line as most versions of Shaq, Wilt, or Russell. Combined with even his limited post repertoire, this makes him a well-above average offensive player.


McHale, though, has a case for the GOAT where low-post game is concerned.
Great footwork, makes excellent use of his lower body to create space and effectively post up to receive the ball in a position to score. Has a myriad of effective moves; I especially like the quick fake followed by the up-and-under for the layup; or the fake shot low-side, fake shot high-side, then (when defend leaves the ground) he ducks back under for the easy layup. And he made these moves quickly, much quicker than you'd think he's capable of when you see him run up the court; he simply doesn't appear as though he could possibly move that fast. He has the short-range jump hooks, the fall-away jumper, was a pretty good finisher despite vastly inferior athleticism (relative to Howard); just very nice soft touch near the rim. Had range out to at least 12-14 ft. And >83% FT-shooter at his peak.
Guy was a scoring machine dropping 31.9 pts/100 possessions at 65.5% TS while playing damn near 40 mpg. Now certainly we can acknowledge that Bird's playmaking and the wealth of talent around him helped his efficiency. otoh, it also stole some primacy away from him. I could see peak McHale in other circumstances dropping 28-29 ppg (~36 per 100 poss) at maybe 61-62% TS in that time period.
And he's less turnover prone than Dwight, and a bit better passer (when he chose to do so, though he was mostly a black hole if you gave him the ball in the post......not saying that's a bad thing, fwiw, when you consider what the typical result of giving him the ball in the post was).

So offensively, I give McHale a solid edge.

Defense
McHale in ‘87 was an All-Defensive 1st Team forward, who often had to spend time guarding outside his position (on the opposing SF) to help hide Bird (though in Bird’s defense: Larry was a fantastic post defender). But that’s just one thing that helps illustrate McHale’s defensive versatility, because he was also an excellent low post defender, and he was also Boston’s primary rim protector, coming up with 2.7 blk/100 possessions.

So despite Dwight’s 3 DPOY awards (which I think marginally overstate his defensive value), I do think it’s close defensively. I probably give the small edge to Dwight, though, based him being sort of the sole anchor to his team’s defense, and the guy that they try to filter everything to.
Although in the past I’ve criticized Dwight for his lack of footwork and timing (where it relates to shot-blocking), noting for example that in ‘13 Howard was avg 3.5 blk/100 possessions with a BLK% of 4.9%; meanwhile a 36-yr-old Tim Duncan was avg 4.5 blk/100 possessions with a BLK% of 6.4%. Even though he’s (even after his back surgery) considerably more athletic than a 36-yr-old Duncan, he’s getting soundly trounced in his shot-blocking stats.
The primary reason, at least according to my observations, was that Duncan ascribed to (and executed) the fundamentals seen in shot-blockers like Russell and Dikembe, which involves keeping your arms up, moving your feet to stay close to the presumed shooter (so you’re in position to make the easier block), waiting for him to go up with the shot and then going up AFTER him to tip the ball just after it leaves his fingers…..a technique that requires attention to keeping your hands/arms up, footwork and timing; as opposed to relying on outstanding elevation.
Dwight has a habit of doing the latter: just sort of vaguely drifting in the direction of a potential shooter, then relying on his outstanding athleticism, gathering himself for a giant leap and batting at the air in region of the arcing shot (occasionally coming up with the amazing grand-standing type of block).

However, I will say something for this method: while strictly speaking it may not be as effective in actually coming up with blocks, it does allow him to CHANGE more shots (because as he’s more just playing a region, rather than a player, he can “get in on” more plays defensively). And I do see Howard change a lot of shots that he doesn’t actually get a paw on.

I’ve also previously criticized this technique of his because it potentially puts him out of position for the defensive rebound; but I think I simply need to retract this criticism, looking at Dwight defensive rebounding numbers (which are obviously hyper-elite).

So overall, I likely give Dwight the small edge defensively.

Rebounding
Here Dwight clearly has a sizable edge. Even relative to positional norms and expectations, it’s Dwight by a solid margin. I’ll point out one thing in McHale’s defense on this, however: part of what is depressing his rebounding numbers is what I’d mentioned above about him being forced to defend outside his natural position (guarding SF’s….that is: perimeter players)......this is at times putting him out of position for the defensive rebound.

Intangibles
This is sort of vague, and of lesser import. I’ll give McHale the edge here….he just seems like the better teammate, and the more professional and cerebral player.

Durability
This is the one that kinda hurts McHale. Based on all of the above, I’d give the small edge to McHale overall…...at least until faced with the reality that in his peak season, McHale’s body did break down and he played thru a serious injury (a friggin’ broken bone, iirc! Guy’s tough as nails) in the playoffs. While still good, even hobbled, he obviously wasn’t the McHale we’d seen throughout the rs.
Howard, otoh, was healthy thru both rs and playoffs at his peak. So that’s a consideration which brings the comparison roughly back to parity for me.

Honestly, I’ve gone back on forth on this comparison, and I’m still not sure who I’ll rank in front.

I'll try to make up my mind by Sunday.
fwiw, I also gave serious consideration to Bob McAdoo for this final spot. EDIT: I've decided to give it to Howard, because it's fairly close, but Howard is the one who remains healthy (and performs well) in the playoffs.

[trex_8063]

Made a sizable post about Bob Pettit in the last thread. I feel he's someone who could potential be given support soon (or now), though I have questions regarding his defense. Not that I've heard anything bad about his defense; I've just not heard anything at all about it. Anyone have any info, anecdotal or otherwise?

I put in a query on the game footage link thread for some full-game videos of prime Pettit; we'll see if anything turns up.

I'd also like to see someone do a comparison of Gilmore to Howard.

[MyUniBroDavis]

First ballot - Elgin Baylor

in my opinion, and underated playmaker and defender. Cavs said he was something like a older day lebron. Im skeptical about this, but he does have good impact. like said before, the lakers were on a 60+ win pace with him healthy, and barely above 500. without him. Granted, there are reasons for this, not the least facing the celtics 5 times, and west being injured for some of these games, but its still good enough impact.

best rebounding sf by a large margin, and I feel like portability puts him on top, as I feel his shot selection would improve in teh modern era.

Second Ballot Dwight Howard 11

I think we will all agree his rs was better in 2011. teh problem I have with 2009 is, matchups played a huge part in his playoff stats. I made a really long post on lebron and dwight and matchups somewhere else, but to sum it up, pretty much all centers dominated the cavs that year. dwight averaged something like 19ppg against everyone else, 26 ppg on 60% against teh cavs. obviously, its unfair to take away a series, but still.

Great, great defender, and great, great rebounder.

one thing people seem to forget, while this was largely due to good offensive sets (a reason he didnt do well with nash actually, he needed to give more space in teh P and R. nash can handle having little to no space, but with his ailing body at the time, he needed a slight window of opportunity)

he had something like 1.36ppp for the pick and roll. thats bloody brilliant. I feel like it is limitted in a way since he can only attack the basket, but even so.

obviously, his defense is incredible

Third Ballot James Harden

kind of iffy on this one, but ill give him the benifit of the doubt.
great scorer, not as bad on defense as one might think tbh.
I dont feel one bad fluky game in a series he was good in overall should diminish how good this season was.

[Quotatious]

Just wanted to say that I'll get back to voting in this thread. Will cast my votes later on. I don't want to let this project die at 33, like it was the case last time.
As I've said before, I didn't want to vote in the previous 5-10 threads, in part because I had very little free time (I have a lot more right now), and the other reason was that some guys (Rebel, I'm looking at you ) were right that my criteria were inconsistent. Now, I see that I'm not the only one who has that problem, so I'll just try my best to remain as objective as I can.

I'm looking at 10-15 players right now, and the further we get, the more worthy candidates we have. I thought Karl Malone (or maybe Nash, but I'm not so sure about that) was the last guy I felt clearly belonged to the top 30, no matter what.

Davis went too high for my liking. I mean - I'm a big fan of that kid, and I think MyUniBro's post on him was really fantastic, but I'd definitely take Dwight Howard over him. I regret not voting in the previous thread. I only had Davis 5th in the player of the year voting for last season, and I had Harden at 2, so I'd definitely go with Harden over Davis, if I voted.

Guys I'm considering right now:

Dwight Howard, Alonzo Mourning, James Harden, Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, Bob McAdoo, Spencer Haywood, Connie Hawkins, Penny Hardaway, Kevin Johnson, Elgin Baylor, Rick Barry (I'm afraid Barry will get underrated, but his '67 and '75 seasons were awesome), Elton Brand, Kevin McHale, Willis Reed, Walt Frazier, Russell Westbrook...Will be very hard to decide. For now, I feel like Dwight will definitely be one of the top 3 guy I'll vote for, but I have no idea who the other two will be.

27. Karl Malone ('92/'97/'98---split decision ('95 also receiving votes))
28. Steve Nash ('05/'07---split decision)

I think we definitely have to do something with that, Trex. It doesn't make sense to vote for peaks and leave a three-way tie, as it is the case with Malone, or even a two-way tie with Nash. I'd lean towards '98 as Malone's peak. Not sure about Nash, but I'm really surprised that '06 hasn't gotten any votes. He led the Suns to 54 wins and WCF, giving the Mavs a good battle, losing in 6 games, without Amare. He was excellent in both RS and PS. Not sure if I'd take that over '05 or '07, but it's right there. 2010 isn't far behind.

[eminence]

Voted for Harden last round, but this round I'm having a tough time justifying him over the big men: Howard, Mourning, Gilmore. Will probably try to do a basic comparison of the three later in the day, any other bigs of that type people would like to see included?

[bastillon]

It's really unbelievable that people still think Malone 97/98 is his peak. Dude was much slower (just look at any video for god's sake), his playoff efficiency dropped from about 113 to 105 ORtg, his minutes dropped because he didn't have the same stamina, and finally his defense suffered a lot because he didn't have the same motor.

Not to mention, if you watch his playoff runs, there is no case that 97/98 Malone had his best playoffs. The only way you can defend Malone's case for late 90s is if you value team success. But the reason why Jazz 97/98 made to the finals is because the entire western conference got old.

[trex_8063]

Just wanted to say that I'll get back to voting in this thread. Will cast my votes later on. I don't want to let this project die at 33, like it was the case last time.
As I've said before, I didn't want to vote in the previous 5-10 threads, in part because I had very little free time (I have a lot more right now), and the other reason was that some guys (Rebel, I'm looking at you ) were right that my criteria were inconsistent. Now, I see that I'm not the only one who has that problem, so I'll just try my best to remain as objective as I can.

fwiw, I'm sure I'm not 100% consistent either. Most of us aren't, as far as I can tell (SideShowBob is probably an exception).
As long as you're a) making an effort toward consistency, and b) putting studious consideration into your picks, I think the project is better with your participation (and this goes for anyone else who is abstaining for similar reasons).

Guys I'm considering right now:

Dwight Howard, Alonzo Mourning, James Harden, Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, Bob McAdoo, Spencer Haywood, Connie Hawkins, Penny Hardaway, Kevin Johnson, Elgin Baylor, Rick Barry (I'm afraid Barry will get underrated, but his '67 and '75 seasons were awesome), Elton Brand, Kevin McHale, Willis Reed, Walt Frazier, Russell Westbrook...Will be very hard to decide. For now, I feel like Dwight will definitely be one of the top 3 guy I'll vote for, but I have no idea who the other two will be.

Glad to hear someone other than me bring up Connie Hawkins. Lot of uncertainty around him (question marks about his defense, as well as the strength of the ABA in that era), but his numbers are off the charts in both rs and playoffs in '68. He's a guy I've been considering in the back of my mind (and have him tentatively in the mid-30's on my current peaks list), but just didn't feel anyone else was ready for him.

27. Karl Malone ('92/'97/'98---split decision ('95 also receiving votes))
28. Steve Nash ('05/'07---split decision)

I think we definitely have to do something with that, Trex. It doesn't make sense to vote for peaks and leave a three-way tie, as it is the case with Malone, or even a two-way tie with Nash. I'd lean towards '98 as Malone's peak. Not sure about Nash, but I'm really surprised that '06 hasn't gotten any votes. He led the Suns to 54 wins and WCF, giving the Mavs a good battle, losing in 6 games, without Amare. He was excellent in both RS and PS. Not sure if I'd take that over '05 or '07, but it's right there. 2010 isn't far behind.

I'm not crazy about having to cite a split-decisions either. But nobody additional chimed in on the secondary thread (I did ask). I'll re-visit the counts, but certainly tell me your choice on year in the secondary thread.

[Quotatious]

It's really unbelievable that people still think Malone 97/98 is his peak. Dude was much slower (just look at any video for god's sake)

Sure, he was slower, but he was also a better passer, decision maker and shooter.

his playoff efficiency dropped from about 113 to 105 ORtg

I don't really care about individual ORtg. By this logic, '96 Jordan (123 ORtg) was far superior in the playoffs than '92 Jordan (115 ORtg) - hell, even '98 Jordan had higher playoff ORtg than '92 Jordan (117 to 115) - anyone who watched him play knows that he was much better in '92.

So, this is a really poor argument.

his minutes dropped because he didn't have the same stamina

No, it dropped mostly because his team was good enough that he didn't have to play 43-46 mpg every game.

That's like saying '91 can't be Jordan's peak because he averaged career-low minutes per game.

and finally his defense suffered a lot because he didn't have the same motor.

And oddly enough, he made the only All-Defensive 1st team selections of his career in '97, '98 and '99, didn't even make the 2nd team in '94 or '95, and only made one All-Defense team before '97, which was a 2nd team nod in '88...

Not to mention, if you watch his playoff runs, there is no case that 97/98 Malone had his best playoffs.

Maybe, but Malone was generally a very inconsistent playoff performer. You could never be sure what you're gonna get from him in any series. If you want to limit the consideration to the playoffs, then you should go with '92, which was clearly better than '94 or '95.

The way I see it is - Malone's best regular season was '97 (it was really an all-time great RS, top 10 all-time level), but he was hugely disappointing individually in the playoffs, especially in the finals (but to be fair, he had a really bad right hand injury which affected his shooting touch), so I don't consider it his overall peak, but '98 was IMO his second best RS, and he was much better in the playoffs, individually. Shot the ball much better, compared to '97. Still didn't play as well as he did in the RS, but played really well in the last two rounds. Dismantled the Lakers in the WCF sweep, and then played pretty well against the Bulls, far better than he did in the '97 finals.

You have to understand that not everyone has the same criteria as you do. Most people care about RS, more or less. Personally, I weigh RS and PS about 50/50%. I think ignoring RS is just ridiculous. For example, by this logic, KG's 2005-07 seasons don't even matter, because he didn't even make the playoffs, and that would be a horrible logic, because those were some of his best seasons.

Playoffs are largely circumstantial. I don't think it's always a good indicator because not everone is facing the same opponents in the PS, and the sample is very small compared to RS. Some players didn't even have a chance to play a lot of playoff games in their primes, like for instance Oscar or KG, which isn't even their own fault (their teams were mediocre and had to fight hard just to make the playoffs, which very little chance to make a deep playoff run, no matter how well those stars played individually). Also, random things like injuries (not only to superstars, but also their teammates, which may affect team success but also that superstar's individual performance - let's say your star teammate goes down with an injury and you have to take on a bigger offensive load as a superstar - your numbers are likely to get worse in the following games, as a result of yourself facing more defensive pressure than usual, as a superstar - like for instance KG in the '04 WCF after Cassell went down, but even injuries to key role players may make the difference in terms of winning or losing a playoff series).

But the reason why Jazz 97/98 made to the finals is because the entire western conference got old.

What does it even mean? Rockets were still there in '97 and '98 - sure, they were old, but they acquired Barkley who was still very much an All-Star level player, Lakers were pretty good after they acquired Shaq, Sonics were still very good, and '97/'98 was when Payton had his peak seasons, and even after they lost Kemp, they acquired Vin Baker, who was a pretty good replacement. Spurs had Duncan who was already playing at All-NBA 1st team level as a rookie, and already anchored great defense in '98, combined with still relatively in-his-prime Robinson.

Hell, Malone didn't even really decline by 2000, when even at age 36/37, he was still putting up his usual 25-26 points/ 9-10 rebounds/ 3-4 assists and led a 55-win Jazz team, then 27/9/3 on over 58% TS in 10 playoff games.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Just wanted to say that I'll get back to voting in this thread. Will cast my votes later on. I don't want to let this project die at 33, like it was the case last time.
As I've said before, I didn't want to vote in the previous 5-10 threads, in part because I had very little free time (I have a lot more right now), and the other reason was that some guys (Rebel, I'm looking at you ) were right that my criteria were inconsistent. Now, I see that I'm not the only one who has that problem, so I'll just try my best to remain as objective as I can.

I'm looking at 10-15 players right now, and the further we get, the more worthy candidates we have. I thought Karl Malone (or maybe Nash, but I'm not so sure about that) was the last guy I felt clearly belonged to the top 30, no matter what.

Davis went too high for my liking. I mean - I'm a big fan of that kid, and I think MyUniBro's post on him was really fantastic, but I'd definitely take Dwight Howard over him. I regret not voting in the previous thread. I only had Davis 5th in the player of the year voting for last season, and I had Harden at 2, so I'd definitely go with Harden over Davis, if I voted.

Guys I'm considering right now:

Dwight Howard, Alonzo Mourning, James Harden, Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, Bob McAdoo, Spencer Haywood, Connie Hawkins, Penny Hardaway, Kevin Johnson, Elgin Baylor, Rick Barry (I'm afraid Barry will get underrated, but his '67 and '75 seasons were awesome), Elton Brand, Kevin McHale, Willis Reed, Walt Frazier, Russell Westbrook...Will be very hard to decide. For now, I feel like Dwight will definitely be one of the top 3 guy I'll vote for, but I have no idea who the other two will be.

27. Karl Malone ('92/'97/'98---split decision ('95 also receiving votes))
28. Steve Nash ('05/'07---split decision)

I think we definitely have to do something with that, Trex. It doesn't make sense to vote for peaks and leave a three-way tie, as it is the case with Malone, or even a two-way tie with Nash. I'd lean towards '98 as Malone's peak. Not sure about Nash, but I'm really surprised that '06 hasn't gotten any votes. He led the Suns to 54 wins and WCF, giving the Mavs a good battle, losing in 6 games, without Amare. He was excellent in both RS and PS. Not sure if I'd take that over '05 or '07, but it's right there. 2010 isn't far behind.

I know this is off-topic, but where would you rank davis now? I think he was 3rd in the league based on ability, though I didnt realize we were going with health, so i would understand harden over him.

I actually forgot to add a section on touches I think lol. oh well.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Just wanted to say that I'll get back to voting in this thread. Will cast my votes later on. I don't want to let this project die at 33, like it was the case last time.
As I've said before, I didn't want to vote in the previous 5-10 threads, in part because I had very little free time (I have a lot more right now), and the other reason was that some guys (Rebel, I'm looking at you ) were right that my criteria were inconsistent. Now, I see that I'm not the only one who has that problem, so I'll just try my best to remain as objective as I can.

fwiw, I'm sure I'm not 100% consistent either. Most of us aren't, as far as I can tell (SideShowBob is probably an exception).
As long as you're a) making an effort toward consistency, and b) putting studious consideration into your picks, I think the project is better with your participation (and this goes for anyone else who is abstaining for similar reasons).

Guys I'm considering right now:

Dwight Howard, Alonzo Mourning, James Harden, Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, Bob McAdoo, Spencer Haywood, Connie Hawkins, Penny Hardaway, Kevin Johnson, Elgin Baylor, Rick Barry (I'm afraid Barry will get underrated, but his '67 and '75 seasons were awesome), Elton Brand, Kevin McHale, Willis Reed, Walt Frazier, Russell Westbrook...Will be very hard to decide. For now, I feel like Dwight will definitely be one of the top 3 guy I'll vote for, but I have no idea who the other two will be.

Glad to hear someone other than me bring up Connie Hawkins. Lot of uncertainty around him (question marks about his defense, as well as the strength of the ABA in that era), but his numbers are off the charts in both rs and playoffs in '68. He's a guy I've been considering in the back of my mind (and have him tentatively in the mid-30's on my current peaks list), but just didn't feel anyone else was ready for him.

27. Karl Malone ('92/'97/'98---split decision ('95 also receiving votes))
28. Steve Nash ('05/'07---split decision)

I think we definitely have to do something with that, Trex. It doesn't make sense to vote for peaks and leave a three-way tie, as it is the case with Malone, or even a two-way tie with Nash. I'd lean towards '98 as Malone's peak. Not sure about Nash, but I'm really surprised that '06 hasn't gotten any votes. He led the Suns to 54 wins and WCF, giving the Mavs a good battle, losing in 6 games, without Amare. He was excellent in both RS and PS. Not sure if I'd take that over '05 or '07, but it's right there. 2010 isn't far behind.

I'm not crazy about having to cite a split-decisions either. But nobody additional chimed in on the secondary thread (I did ask). I'll re-visit the counts, but certainly tell me your choice on year in the secondary thread.

Im not sure if I have posted on the secondary thread for malone (actually at all, but I usually had the winner in my ballot anyway, and I couldnt post for a while because of studies)

if I forgot, I would like to say 97, though I might have voted for him before and it might have been a different year, I do think its 97 now.

[ceiling raiser]

Kidd on anybody's radar yet? He should make the top 50 I'd think, wonder how far off he is from the current pack.

[mischievous]

Kidd on anybody's radar yet? He should make the top 50 I'd think, wonder how far off he is from the current pack.

Still pretty far away i'd say, i can probably name over a dozen that still belong ahead but ill throw a few names out there besides the ones already getting traction. Westbrook, Pippen, Payton, Clyde Drexler, George Gervin.

[ceiling raiser]

Kidd on anybody's radar yet? He should make the top 50 I'd think, wonder how far off he is from the current pack.

Still pretty far away i'd say, i can probably name over a dozen that still belong ahead but ill throw a few names out there besides the ones already getting traction. Westbrook, Pippen, Payton, Clyde Drexler, George Gervin.

How close is Payton to Kidd for you?

[eminence]

Kidd on anybody's radar yet? He should make the top 50 I'd think, wonder how far off he is from the current pack.

My preliminary tier list left Kidd at the very back end of the top 50 for me, so it'll be close. Could move up if anybody makes any convincing arguments, but I doubt I'd be arguing for him for awhile yet.

[mischievous]

Kidd on anybody's radar yet? He should make the top 50 I'd think, wonder how far off he is from the current pack.

Still pretty far away i'd say, i can probably name over a dozen that still belong ahead but ill throw a few names out there besides the ones already getting traction. Westbrook, Pippen, Payton, Clyde Drexler, George Gervin.

How close is Payton to Kidd for you?

Close yeah. But, they appear to be comparable in passing, defense and rebounding, but then Payton gets a clear edge in scoring so thats the diff for me. To argue Kidd, i think you'd have to make a case of his D being clearly better and/or his playmaking being a tier ahead.

[bastillon]

I'm not gonna respond to everything, because I don't have the time:

re: better passer, shooter and decision maker

Nope he wasn't. Late 90s Malone was just a jumpshooting big. Mid 90s Malone attacked the basket more. His shot didn't get better, he just relied on it more because he couldn't attack the basket as he used to. Diminished athleticism caused him to shoot more jumpshots. That didn't matter that much in the RS, because he still got a lot of buckets through screens just off catches in the Jazz system, but it mattered in the playoffs.

re: Jordan's ORtg

Your example is cherry-picking. Jordan is irrelevant here. We're talking about Karl Malone. You're saying that Malone's efficiency didn't matter? I don't really understand this logic:

me: Malone's playoff efficiency has seen a massive drop off in the late 90s
you: but look at Jordan

The reason why Malone suffered this massive drop off in the playoffs (and this was a consistent trend continuing through the rest of Malone's career) is because he wasn't able to attack the basket. As defenses clamped down on easy baskets in the playoffs, Malone was mainly a jumpshooter, specifically when he was in isolation. Mid 90s Malone was able to score a lot more inside, because he was quicker and more athletic overall.

re: Malone's minutes

Once again you're bringing up Jordan but he's irrelevant in this conversation. You can't just shrugg that off by bringing Jordan into the mix. I am not talking about Jordan.

Malone's playoff mins dropped off because he was not physically able to play 46 mins a game, like he did in some playoff series. At this point I have nothing to say but just recommend you watching some games in which casters talk about Malone's stamina in the mid 90s and how much energy he's able to exert. In late 90s on the other hand, that was often the problem because Malone got tired and had to pace himself. This should surprise exactly no one. In 94 Malone was 30 years old. In 98 he was 34. It's not like Malone was playing less because his team was blowing out everyone. Jazz had many close series during late 90s, and Malone never played 46 mpg like he did in the mid 90s.

re: Malone's all-defensive awards

Malone made those teams rather despite getting old, not because of getting old. Malone was probably playing the best defense of his life in 94. Go watch 94 Jazz-Spurs and what he was doing to D-Rob (you know, league's best player during RS). He got awards later simply because competition was less fierce in the late 90s and because of Jazz success as a team. Those all-defensive awards, as we have seen throughout history, are meaningless anyway. But if you look at the metrics, his career high defensive stats all come from in the mid 90s. If you look at his +/- numbers, he peaks in 94 (and that's because of his defense).

re: Malone was a very inconsistent performer, 92 was his best playoff run

Malone became known for his poor playoff play in the late 90s. You can't really say that he choked in 92-95 when he was at his best. Sure he wasn't the same as in the RS, but that's to be expected. But by no means was he choking, like he did in the late 90s. His playoff struggles started when he transformed into a jumpshooter.

As to his best playoffs, once again, you have to watch the games to know what you're talking about. 92 Malone had an excellent playoff run (for example G5 vs Portland) but he also had a pretty easy competition and didn't do much playmaking, nor was he making incredible impact on defense. But in 94 all of Malone's best assets were combined:
-his playoff defense was at his peak (he embarrassed D-Rob)
-his offense was incredible despite facing Robinson, Mutombo and Hakeem (top3 of top5 defenders ever), one by one, in consecutive playoff series. His series vs Robinson and Mutombo are quite likely his best 2 playoff series ever.
-his arsenal improved a lot compared to 92 because he wasn't relying on Stockton as much, and just was much more of a playmaker (and this is when Malone improved as a passer, not in the late 90s)

92 Malone was a scoring machine. 94 Malone was a beast overall (scoring, defense, passing, ability to sustain his performance vs highest level competition).

The reason why you're going with Malone 98 is a simple one. You're going off by basketball-reference raw stats without much analysis. If you watch the games from the mid 90s, and look at Malone's impact stats (his +/- numbers were significantly higher in the mid 90s), his playoff performances, and just the complete package that his guy brought to the table in 94, this is clearly his peak year.

94 is the year when:
-Malone had clearly best PS performance (better than 92 if you consider competition)
-Malone had his highest recorded +/- numbers with insane +17.4 on/off based on Harvey Pollack's data
-when he was still athletic enough to attack the basket, but developed a jumpshot to be an outside threat that he was later on
-when he started being a playmaker as opposed to just a finisher like he was in early 90s
-when he still had insane stamina to play 46 mpg during the course of a playoff series

The only thing you could criticize was his shooting efficiency post all-star break (mere 53% TS). That was partly because Jazz made a mid-season deal for Hornacek and Malone was adjusting to the new role. But then he followed it up with his two best playoff series of his career (vs Spurs and Nuggets).

[bastillon]

Still pretty far away i'd say, i can probably name over a dozen that still belong ahead but ill throw a few names out there besides the ones already getting traction. Westbrook, Pippen, Payton, Clyde Drexler, George Gervin.

How close is Payton to Kidd for you?

Close yeah. But, they appear to be comparable in passing, defense and rebounding, but then Payton gets a clear edge in scoring so thats the diff for me. To argue Kidd, i think you'd have to make a case of his D being clearly better and/or his playmaking being a tier ahead.

How would you explain Payton's putrid +/- stats and his playoff struggles? He was probably the biggest reason why the Sonics were upset in 94 and 95, because he choked in the playoffs big time.

[trex_8063]

I think we definitely have to do something with that, Trex. It doesn't make sense to vote for peaks and leave a three-way tie, as it is the case with Malone, or even a two-way tie with Nash. I'd lean towards '98 as Malone's peak. Not sure about Nash, but I'm really surprised that '06 hasn't gotten any votes. He led the Suns to 54 wins and WCF, giving the Mavs a good battle, losing in 6 games, without Amare. He was excellent in both RS and PS. Not sure if I'd take that over '05 or '07, but it's right there. 2010 isn't far behind.

I'm not crazy about having to cite a split-decisions either. But nobody additional chimed in on the secondary thread (I did ask). I'll re-visit the counts, but certainly tell me your choice on year in the secondary thread.

Im not sure if I have posted on the secondary thread for malone (actually at all, but I usually had the winner in my ballot anyway, and I couldnt post for a while because of studies)

if I forgot, I would like to say 97, though I might have voted for him before and it might have been a different year, I do think its 97 now.

I've gone back as far as the #24 thread as well as the secondary thread and noted everyone's vote for year re: Nash and Malone (obv giving credence to the most recent vote for those who've changed their minds). Going back that far, I've found '07 has a clear edge for Nash.

Adding in your vote for '98, Quot, and noting MyUniBro's change of heart (you'd previously voted for '98), we now have a slim consensus to '97 for Mailman. I've made the changes in the list thread.

[Quotatious]

Okay, my votes:

Ballot #1 - Dwight Howard '11
Ballot #2 - Artis Gilmore '75
Ballot #3 - James Harden '15

Reasoning:

Howard was my pick for the MVP during the 2010-11 season, and I would still say so, in retrospect. There's a lot to like about him as a player - excellent scorer - 22.9 ppg on 61.6% TS - one of only 6 players in NBA history who averaged at least 22 ppg on at least 59% FG for a full season- the other guys are Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin McHale, Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal, so that's a super-elite company of inside scorers, all-time great rebounder - 14.1 rebounds per game, 21.8% TRB - that's top 10 all-time rebounding. Deservedly won the DPOY award that year. Dwight totally carried his team that year, and in the playoffs, he was the only guy on his team who came to play. Literally all of his teammates were horrible in that series against Atlanta - Nelson, Turkoglu and Jason Richardson shot way below 40% from the field. Howard had an absolutely horrible AST/TOV ratio (3 assists, 33 turnovers for that series, 5.5 turnovers per game), but knowing how awful his team was, and how he elevated his production in terms of scoring or rebounding, compared to the regular season, I'm inclined to be pretty forgiving. He still had a very good series, and he's the reason why the Magic managed to win two games, and didn't get swept. He averaged 27.0 ppg on 67.7% TS, which is absolutely dominant scoring, and it makes up for his turnover problems, in large part, plus 15.5 rebounds, which is more than he did in the RS, too.

Howard and Gilmore are very close, in my opinion. Both very strong, physical players, top 10 all-time caliber defensive anchors, dominant rebounders, and very efficient 20+ ppg scorers. Both bad passers, and turnover prone, that's their biggest weakness. I'm giving Dwight the edge because while their numbers are very similar, Howard did it in a better league.

Harden is absolutely horrible defensively compared to Howard and Gilmore, and I think the gap on defense is bigger than the gap on offense in Harden's favor. Howard and Gilmore were very good offensive players, you could throw the ball to them to the low block (or, in Dwight's case, you can use him as a pick & roll finisher, where he was brutally effective that year), and they can score very efficiently - both are flawed as an offensive centerpiece, because they're poor passers, and their moves were mechanical, but they were so physically dominant that it was still really hard to contain them - in addition, Gilmore gave you a decent short/mid range jumper, and decent FT shooting for a center, and in Howard, you got someone capable of putting an entire opposing team in foul trouble - he averaged almost 12 FTA/G in the RS, and almost 15 in the playoffs, making 59.6% of his shots in the RS, and 68.2% in the playoffs - he was getting 10 easy points from the foul line in the postseason - think about how valuable that is - those are pretty much prime Shaq numbers in terms of FT shooting, with a little better percentage.

Meanwhile, by no means would I consider Harden a "very good" defensive player. As I've said before in another thread, I think offense is generally more valuable than defense, if we are talking about superstars, but it's not like we're talking about a "great offense + very good defense vs great defense + very good offense" scenario - no, it's really a "great defense + good offense vs great offense vs mediocre defense" scenario, so Harden loses this comparison. He's a terrific offensive player, both as a scorer and playmaker, but his defensive deficiencies are too big, compared to those big guys, for me to be able to give him the edge.

Alonzo Mourning came very close to being my #3 ballot here, but I don't think he played as well as Howard and Gilmore did in the playoffs (him not being able to really dominate 37/38 year old Ewing is a black mark on that 1999-00 season), and he's a FAR worse rebounder, which is really important for a center. He's IMO the best defender of the three, but it's really close (while rebounding is not close), and Zo is not a better offensive player than Dwight or Artis.

I really like Zo, maybe my favorite center of all-time, but he's a little behind those three guys I voted for (and I don't even like Howard or Harden, so I feel like I've been able to remain objective here), but we all know it's not an exact science, so it's hard to apply a perfectly consistent approach (like, for example, saying - "I'll vote for great defensive centers with very good scoring ability", and go with Howard/Gilmore/Mourning in some order), so I think going with Harden over Mourning is fine.