The Kyle Lowry Thread (2015-16)

[sca]

Do you have a moment to talk about our lord and savior, Kyle Lowry?

Pardon my homerism, but Lowry has been playing out of his mind this year, so I thought he deserved a thread. His advanced stats have always been good, but they're off the charts to start this season. I know that he's also played well at the beginning of the last season, so it's quite reasonable to have doubts over his ability to maintain this type of play over 82 games (and more importantly, play-offs).

As of today, he's averaging 21.3 PPG / 4.8 RPG / 6.1 APG / 2.6 SPG (league leader) on .425 / .412 / .883 (.594 TS%)

Among those who qualified, he's...

- 11th in PER (24.8) (3rd among PGs)
- 4th in WS (3.5) (3rd among PGs)
- 5th in WS/48 (.251) (3rd among PGs)
- 3rd in OBPM (7.4) (3rd among PGs)
- 45th in DBPM (1.9) (1st among PGs)
- 3rd in BPM (9.3) (3rd among PGs)
- 3rd in VORP (1.9) (3rd among PGs)
- 5th in ORPM (6.39) (3rd among PGs)
- 34th in DRPM (2.14) (1st among PGs)
- 3rd in RPM (8.53) (3rd among PGs)
- 3rd in WINS (4.5) (3rd among PGs)

Among those who have at least 25% USG (1st option type of guys), he's also 4th in TS% with .594 behind Curry, George and Leonard.

So, after a down year, especially defensively, he's started the season in shape for the first time in forever, and has really turned it up on D. He can actually stay in front of his man this year, and with a more conservative defensive scheme, he's able to save more energy for the other side of the court. Still, that didn't stop him from averaging 1 more steal per game compared to the last year (so far of course). I think this is because he's moving much more quickly this year, as he lost a lot of weight.

He's also shooting more threes this year (9.9/100 poss) compared to the last (8.4) and been hitting them at a better rate (.412 vs. .338).

He's absolutely torched the Hawks defense last night, outscoring them 22-20 by himself in the 4th quarter.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBSCJbdVLYA[/youtube]

So... I'm skeptical as many, but in my mind there is no doubt that this would be the best individual regular season performance in the Raptors history if he keeps this up.

[cpower]

he is the 3rd best PG in the league right now. and a top 10 player.

But Carter in 00/01 was on another level.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2001_leaders.html

[sca]

Lowry really wanted that Warriors game. But, to his misfortune, Curry is simply a better player.

[Hendrix]

Lowry really wanted that Warriors game. But, to his misfortune, Curry is simply a better player.

Or Derozan is simply one of the worst players to have taking 19 shots.

[RxMidnight]

Lowry is playing like the 3rd best PG in the league right now there's no doubt, but don't forget though he got off to a hot start last year too. Last December he averaged 22/4/9 on 46/40/86 before cooling off big time in 2015. Kyle lost a bunch of weight over the offseason to help with his conditioning, but only time will tell whether that pans out. I'd like to see him perform at this level at least until the all star break before taking him and the Raptors too seriously.

[RSCD3_]

Lowry is playing like the 3rd best PG in the league right now there's no doubt, but don't forget though he got off to a hot start last year too. Last December he averaged 22/4/9 on 46/40/86 before cooling off big time in 2015. Kyle lost a bunch of weight over the offseason to help with his conditioning, but only time will tell whether that pans out. I'd like to see him perform at this level at least until the all star break before taking him and the Raptors too seriously.

He also had 12.3 PPG sub 40 TS% and 5.2 APG on a meager 1.42 AST%/TOV% Ratio.

I've heard he was banged up in the playoffs but to what extent im not aware.

Even still it was a terrible playoffs and taken into account that he was barely useful, it's heavily penalized as a year.

For Kobe's 2013, I've seriously debated counting it as a near zero since he was completely unavailable in the playoffs.

[HeartBreakKid]

For Kobe's 2013, I've seriously debated counting it as a near zero since he was completely unavailable in the playoffs.

So did Russell Westbrook's season not happen last year from your perspective?

[RSCD3_]

For Kobe's 2013, I've seriously debated counting it as a near zero since he was completely unavailable in the playoffs.

So did Russell Westbrook's season not happen last year from your perspective?

I'm not saying i dont count seasons where players dont make the playoffs but he was at least available if they did.
Maybe kobe is a special case as if he was being preserved by a normal team and not a guy who is incompetent at managing minutes, he would likely be healthy but if you can't play in the postseason due to a torn acl or something, then how are you supposed to help your team win in the PS, which should be the ultimate goal

[HeartBreakKid]

So did Russell Westbrook's season not happen last year from your perspective?

I'm not saying i dont count seasons where players dont make the playoffs but he was at least available if they did.
Maybe kobe is a special case as if he was being preserved by a normal team and not a guy who is incompetent at managing minutes, he would likely be healthy but if you can't play in the postseason due to a torn acl or something, then how are you supposed to help your team win in the PS, which should be the ultimate goal

That seems like a really arbitrary standard. I mean how do you know Russell Westbrook wouldn't have torn his ACL the first minute of the 2015 playoffs? How do you know Westbrook wouldn't have just sucked in the playoffs that year if he was healthy?

Kobe Bryant played 78 regular season games and injured himself at the very end of the season, he played more games than Russell Westbrook did by a significant margin, yet Westbrooks season counts more? They both impacted the playoffs equally in their respective years...

It's one thing to say one player was better than another because that said player was hobbled or missed too many games. In the case of Bryant, he just caught bad luck at the end of a full season. What if Westbrook had gotten injured for 15 games at the end of the 2015 RS instead of the start of the 2015 RS and his playoff bound team went in without him. I mean the standard just seems really arbitrary, they were both injured and both did not play in the playoffs, the only difference is Westbrook got injured at the start as opposed to at the end and his team did not make the playoffs because their record was not good enough (which if anything, should count as a negative).


Also, to clarify, I'm not saying this is Bryant vs Westbrook, but I think if you're saying that Kobe Bryant's 2013 season counts for absolutely nothing even though he helped get his team to the playoffs, then you're opening a huge can of worms. I mean does Kareem Abdul Jabar's MVP season count for nothing when he didn't make the playoffs? Garnetts 3 season of emptiness? Dwight Howard's 2012 season? It doesn't seem like you're actually assessing the player and you're over analyzing a really random element in the case of injury.

[RSCD3_]

So did Russell Westbrook's season not happen last year from your perspective?

I'm not saying i dont count seasons where players dont make the playoffs but he was at least available if they did.
Maybe kobe is a special case as if he was being preserved by a normal team and not a guy who is incompetent at managing minutes, he would likely be healthy but if you can't play in the postseason due to a torn acl or something, then how are you supposed to help your team win in the PS, which should be the ultimate goal

That seems like a really arbitrary standard. I mean how do you know Russell Westbrook wouldn't have torn his ACL the first minute of the 2015 playoffs? How do you know Westbrook wouldn't have just sucked in the playoffs that year if he was healthy?

Kobe Bryant played 78 regular season games and injured himself at the very end of the season, he played more games than Russell Westbrook did by a significant margin, yet Westbrooks season counts more? They both impacted the playoffs equally in their respective years...

It's one thing to say one player was better than another because that said player was hobbled or missed too many games. In the case of Bryant, he just caught bad luck at the end of a full season. What if Westbrook had gotten injured for 15 games at the end of the 2015 RS instead of the start of the 2015 RS and his playoff bound team went in without him. I mean the standard just seems really arbitrary, they were both injured and both did not play in the playoffs, the only difference is Westbrook got injured at the start as opposed to at the end and his team did not make the playoffs because their record was not good enough (which if anything, should count as a negative).


Also, to clarify, I'm not saying this is Bryant vs Westbrook, but I think if you're saying that Kobe Bryant's 2013 season counts for absolutely nothing even though he helped get his team to the playoffs, then you're opening a huge can of worms. I mean does Kareem Abdul Jabar's MVP season count for nothing when he didn't make the playoffs? Garnetts 3 season of emptiness? Dwight Howard's 2012 season? It doesn't seem like you're actually assessing the player and you're over analyzing a really random element in the case of injury.

I'm confused here, are you saying that health in the postseason doesnt matter as long as there is a substantial RS production.
If a Player plays very well but his team isnt good enough to make the playoffs why would I forecast them to be injured, as injuries at least season ending one's arent very probable at all. But it's a very real thing if someone is prevented from playing beyond any factor. I never stated it was a zero season I said I considered the idea of it.


I

[dontcalltimeout]

So, in the latest RPM update, Kyle Lowry is +7.16/+2.78 and in has passed for Russell Westbrook for second place. The Raptors have the 4th best ORTG (adjusted) 107.44.

When he's on the court their ORTG is 110.1 and DRTG is 102.2! His On/Off is +18.5 (Yes, really). Granted, we can't give him too much credit for the defense, but he's definitely been tenacious on that end this year. He seems to moving and communicating well, and having Biyombo behind him has allowed him to get more aggressive with funnelling ball-handlers into help.

On offense he's looking better than ever. I know people have been mentioning the weight-loss a lot, but he actually does look a step quicker. He's being really smart with his shot taking, avoiding the midrange more than ever and concentrating on the paint and three-pointer. Mostly I love the way he's using his bigs, especially his chemistry with Scola and developing with Biyombo. He's gotten really good at using the threat of a roll man and hesitation dribbles to paralyze defenses.



There is some reason to be skeptical though. He looked almost this good last season, with DeRozan out, but fell off as fatigue hit him and the team went into a second half slump. He's also shooting over 40% from three, which he's never done before (38% in '14 was the closest).

Things to look for: With Carroll out, how is Toronto going to respond? To be sure Carroll was part of some of their best lineups. He certainly helps their defense and is a good spot-up shooter to surround Lowry.

[Dr Positivity]

Being top 5 on offense is a testament to Lowry cause there's a lot more going wrong on that end this year like playing Biyombo a lot and JV injury, Patterson has been big disappointment, Ross has had a bad start, Carroll is missing everything but 3s. From the eye test it feels like a team who cares about defense more than offense unlike the 2014-2015 version which was Lou Williams the team incarnate

[dontcalltimeout]

unlike the 2014-2015 version which was Lou Williams the team incarnate

[dontcalltimeout]

I thought Lowry was really good last night. DeRozan made some big shots down the stretch to be sure, but Lowry took advantage of Parker's inability to stay in front of him and did a really good job on the defensive end (I was impressed with all the Raps on D tbh). I also really enjoyed Lowry dodging and ducking under the defender to avoid getting fouled and closing out the game.

I know this isn't the DeRozan thread, but it's relevant. I think DeRozan is quite good when he gets his shots in the flow of the offense (eg coming off a screen and shooting or attacking the basket from a kickout), but I still don't like when Toronto just dumps the ball off to him posting up from 15 feet. Even when he's making them, like last night, I think it hurts the flow of their offense overall.

[sca]

I thought Lowry was really good last night. DeRozan made some big shots down the stretch to be sure, but Lowry took advantage of Parker's inability to stay in front of him and did a really good job on the defensive end (I was impressed with all the Raps on D tbh). I also really enjoyed Lowry dodging and ducking under the defender to avoid getting fouled and closing out the game.

I know this isn't the DeRozan thread, but it's relevant. I think DeRozan is quite good when he gets his shots in the flow of the offense (eg coming off a screen and shooting or attacking the basket from a kickout), but I still don't like when Toronto just dumps the ball off to him posting up from 15 feet. Even when he's making them, like last night, I think it hurts the flow of their offense overall.

I think DeRozan's iso plays hurt us a lot more than his post-ups, which are seemingly rare. I don't have the numbers, so I might be wrong, though. I'd like to see him post-up, come off screens and cut to the basket a lot more than try to beat his man off the dribble and/or put up wild shot attempts.

Everyone would prefer if DeRozan put up his shots "in the flow of the offense" but the problem is, our offense doesn't flow much.

[dontcalltimeout]

I think DeRozan's iso plays hurt us a lot more than his post-ups, which are seemingly rare. I don't have the numbers, so I might be wrong, though.

That's fair, I kind of put post-ups and ISO for him in the same bucket. I usually see them very similarly for wings.
For the record: He's posting up on 11.7% of the time with 0.98 PPP and isolating 16.9% of the time (tied with PG for 4th in the league) with 0.92 PPP. You're right to point out that post-ups are actually a better option than ISOs for him.

I'd like to see him post-up, come off screens and cut to the basket a lot more than try to beat his man off the dribble and/or put up wild shot attempts.

Everyone would prefer if DeRozan put up his shots "in the flow of the offense" but the problem is, our offense doesn't flow much.

I love it when he comes off screens and / or makes quick decisions with the ball. good things happen.

Everyone would prefer if DeRozan put up his shots "in the flow of the offense" but the problem is, our offense doesn't flow much.

LOL, fair.

[tsherkin]

So heads up, I dunno if you guys realized it, but this is a LOWRY thread. Not a DeRozan thread. Let's keep it that way.

[Dr Spaceman]

So this is two seasons in a row Lowry has fallen apart down the stretch. He has the elbow thing this year to be sure, but how much is that and how much is just exhaustion? He literally can't shoot at all.

I thought skinny Kyle Lowry meant these issues were fixed.

Val had a brilliant game though.

[sca]

He's had another huge performance tonight. Looks like he's found his groove just at the right time.

Raptors w/ Kyle on / off the court this post-season: +76 / -68

He finds ways to impact the game even when his shot's not falling.

[Kabookalu]

He's Stephen Curry lite when he's got his shot going.