I really enjoyed this post. Having said that, I strongly disagree that a good case could be made for LBJ being ranked #1 or even #2.
The gap between MJ and LBJ in the finals is so huge, it's literally a joke. I'm sure we're all familiar with the stats, so not going to rehash here.
Can you imagine a prime MJ averaging 17 ppg in the finals? Or, how about shooting 40%/69% FG/FT in the finals? Would Jordan be embarrassed by a team with a lone superstar and a ragtag collection of past their prime vets, a 5'8" shooting guard, and a stopgap defending big? (Dirk + Kidd + Terry + Barea + Tyson)
How about losing 5 of 7 finals, with 4 of those losses in your prime, all with teams personally engineered by LBJ himself?
And yes, you can forgive a poor finals performance early in his career, but then again, if Magic can lay down 42/15/7 as a rook, then doesn't this score as a huge bonus for Magic?
Regardless of career stats, I think any rational basketball analyst has to acknowledge that the whole point of this is to win chips. Regular season stats are meaningless unless you win championships. This is why Karl Malone, with monster stats, is never mentioned as a top 10 player.
LBJ has had the distinct luxury of dominating a very weak EC for his entire career. He has essentially played GM for two consecutive teams. Yet, after this season, he's likely to come up short in 5 of 7 finals. And this would be 6 of 7 if Ray Allen hadn't bailed him out.
Ultimately, you have to assess how effective players have been when it matters most. With Lebron biting his nails, looking lost and offering nothing more than Draymond Green type numbers against Dallas, with the Spurs daring him to shoot, leaving him wide open from the perimeter, with Lebron posting horrid efficiency numbers against the Warriors, LBJ's finals performances have been an inconsistent mess.
With two chips, and with bleak prospects of winning any more, I think he ranks a big higher than Wilt who also has two chips, monster career stats but with a bit less longevity.
HotRocks34 wrote:I voted "good" but would probably lean towards "very good."
The important thing is that they got the Top 3 right. I know a lot of people don't want to hear that, but they got it right. And, to be honest, I could see LeBron moving up to #2 in the future if he plays long enough. There even would be a case to put him at #1, potentially.
I was going to make a very long post about this in the original ESPN Top 100 thread the other day but got bogged down with other stuff. The list is based upon:
* Peak
* Longevity
* Head-to-head (who would you take over whom in certain "Guy A vs Guy B" instances)
In a nutshell, the 5 greatest peaks (particularly as regards offense) in NBA history through 2015-16 are:
Jordan
LeBron
Kareem
Wilt
Shaq
LeBron's peak can go up against anyone else's peak, including Jordan's and Kareem's. 4 seasons with 30+ PER (tied with Jordan) and 4 seasons with .298+ WS/48 (most in NBA history; Jordan and Kareem each had 3). 6 seasons with 9.0+ BPM (most in NBA history; Jordan had 5).
So, the peak argument is covered for LeBron.
It's important to remember that this list seems to be primarily concerned with Peak/Longevity, as compared with Rings or Awards. We're just talking about talent level and statistical accomplishments/greatness, it seems.
There's no issue, to me, with putting Jordan and Kareem above LeBron, even just as regards peaks. Kareem had incredible WS/48 dominance early in his career and 4 seasons of 28.5+ PER. And when you add in the longevity Kareem deserves the #2 spot, at least for now. I don't think you can put Kareem above Jordan, but if you take into account longevity there's probably an argument for it.
Kareem is pretty much the most dominant Peak/Longevity hybrid in NBA history. Up to this point.
Whenever stats arguments are made people always bring up David Robinson and Chris Paul. Paul doesn't have enough longevity and he already seems to be on the slide at age 30 or whatever he is. Robinson, ranked 20th, is probably about where he should be. Awesome peak, although not quite at the top level. But the longevity hurts him, I think. He came into the league at like age 24/25 and he only had about 7 or so truly great years until he hurt his back.
LeBron would not seem to fit well on the "longevity" scale, but he actually does. As well as "longevity projections" based upon where he's at now in his career (younger guys like Curry or Anthony Davis have less-clear "longevity projections" because they are not as established as LeBron is, yet).
* 11th all time in career Win Shares. Basically a lock to become only the 8th guy in NBA history (along with Dirk soon) to get 200+ career win shares barring a career-ending injury. This should happen in the next 2 years or so, barring such an injury.
* 1st in career VORP. Recently passed Jordan in this. It's a cumulative (additive) measure for the career, like Win Shares is
* Already 26K/6K/6K in career points/rebounds/assists. Only 3 other players have achieved that (Kobe, Oscar, Havlicek)
* Probably ends the 2015-16 regular season at about 12th in NBA history for career points
* Is already 6th in NBA history for career playoff points
* Is already 20th in NBA history for career regular season assists
* Is already 4th in NBA history for career playoff assists
* Is already 3rd in NBA history for career playoff Win Shares, with a real chance to become #1 during the 2016 playoffs
* Is already 1st in NBA history for career playoff VORP
* Is already 2nd in NBA history for Career MVP Shares (behind Jordan; another "cumulative" stat/measurement)
By the end of next season, barring a serious injury (and LeBron's only long-term health problem seems to be his back, which flares up from time to time), LeBron will almost certainly be Top 10 all time in both regular season career points and regular season Win Shares. It's probably a reasonable expectation to think he will accomplish that based upon what he has done for the first 13 years of his career.
So, essentially, LeBron has hit (or will likely accomplish shortly) almost any necessary "longevity" metrics to put himself in a Top 3 conversation/spot. He clearly has the peak numbers and he would seem to have the longevity numbers covered as well, particularly in advanced stats.
- Why is LeBron (3) so high?
Discussed above. Jordan, Kareem and LeBron are the 3 most statistically dominant players in the history of the league. Wilt and Shaq are right behind them. LeBron deserves this spot, and an argument can be made to put him at #2 or even #1 based on statistics. That said, he is properly placed (to me) at #3 in this list.
- Why is Kareem (2) so high?
The most dominant Peak/Longevity player in the history of the game, at least at this time. Averaged 23 PPG on 56% FG at the age of 38 as the centerpiece of the Lakers offense. All Time Scoring Leader. 3 seasons with a WS/48 of .300+. 4 seasons with a PER of 28.5+. Played until he was 42 years old. Most Total Career Minutes in NBA history. #1 in career regular season Win Shares. First 4 seasons not counted on regular season VORP or he'd be higher on that list (he's #7) as well. Ditto for his playoff VORP.
- Why is Jordan #1?
Highest career regular season PER of all time. Highest career playoff PER of all time. Highest career regular season WS/48 of all time. Highest playoff WS/48 of all time. 4th in career regular season Win Shares. 1st in career playoff Win Shares. 4th all time in career regular season points. 2nd in career regular season VORP. 2nd in career playoff VORP. 3rd in career steals. Likely the best perimeter defender in NBA history (although some might choose Pippen). #1 in career MVP Award Shares. 5 seasons of 9.0+ BPM. Achieved everything he did longevity-wise in just 13.5 seasons if you take away the injured 2nd year and the shortened comeback seasons. The Prodigy; The One; The Guy. Deservedly #1 even if arguments could be made for Kareem, Wilt and even LeBron.
All told, the guys at ESPN got this list essentially correct, I think, with the "wiggle room" of the "Which guy would you take over the other?", head to head aspect of the process. They did a heck of a job, and much better than some others have done, in my opinion.