'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[Nbafanatic]

Alrighty, we're looking at 3-1 OKC now with 2 straight blowouts and this one's at 25 as I speak. What's the story here?

As I see it, GS is still a historic level but slightly hampered (Curry) team, and OKC is a strong title level team (~8/9 SRS) team that happens to match up well with GS/SAS. It's not really that crazy for a GS level team to be outplayed by an OKC level team in that scenario - they can be inferior vs the other 28 teams on average but just be better in the H2H matchup.

Just expanding a bit on this line of thought, don't you think it is feasible to access that this Thunder team right now is playing on the 2001 Lakers level? We got a comparable impact one-two punch, every role player playing at their peak levels, Ibaka playing great, Adams hitting the next step, Waiters improving his decision making at 300%, Roberson taking advantage of the way he is being guarded and then some, every player on the starting lineup has been a positive on defense, the team playing great defense on a string as well, Durant playing defense almost as well as peak Lebron and etc... I know the Lakers had a better record against the conference, but they didn't play against this level of competition either.

OTOH, the Warriors are without Curry 100% as you said, both centers are not playing their best right now, Green does two bad games in a row... One problem of this amazing Warriors team from 2016 was that they were so good offensively, that they have an on/off switch defensively, and they simply can't defend as a team as well as their more limited offensively 2015 version. They were so used of the offense bailing them out, and now they cannot reach the same defensive level, anymore.

[SideshowBob]

Alrighty, we're looking at 3-1 OKC now with 2 straight blowouts and this one's at 25 as I speak. What's the story here?

As I see it, GS is still a historic level but slightly hampered (Curry) team, and OKC is a strong title level team (~8/9 SRS) team that happens to match up well with GS/SAS. It's not really that crazy for a GS level team to be outplayed by an OKC level team in that scenario - they can be inferior vs the other 28 teams on average but just be better in the H2H matchup.

Just expanding a bit on this line of thought, don't you think is feasible to access that this Thunder team right now is playing on the 2001 Lakers level? We got a comparable impact one-two punch, every role player playing at their peak levels, Ibaka playing great, Adams hitting the next step, Waiters improving his decision making at 300%, Roberson taking advantage of the way he is being guarded and then some, every player on the starting lineup has been a positive on defense, the team playing great defense on a string as well, Durant playing defense almost as well as peak Lebron and etc... I know the Lakers had a better record against the conference, but they didn't play against this level of competition as well.

OTOH, the Warriors are without Curry 100% as you said, both centers are not playing their best right now, Green does two bad games in a row... One problem of this amazing Warriors team from 2016 was that they were so good offensively, that they have an on/off switch defensively, and they simply can't defend as a team as well as their more limited offensively 2015 version. They were so used of the offense bailing them out, and now they cannot reach the same defensive level, anymore.

I think we're going to have some interesting contemplation to do following the Finals, that's for sure. ITO competition/opponent strength, this is probably the toughest ever, so their level of play is definitely pretty insanely high. 01 Shaq >> either Russ/Durant though, but they're both a bit better than 01 Kobe (who was a **** monster so that's high praise). Dunno if they're at the same level as Kobe/Shaq but I've been saying this duo's up there all season long.

Definitely worth thinking about. Let's see what they continue to do first.

[JordansBulls]

Even if OKC wins the title not sure it is enough for Westbrook nor Durant or anyone else to overtake Curry. No matter how bad Shaq would have played in 2000, no one was going to overtake him if the Lakers lost to Portland.

[Sinant]

Conference Finals through 4 games

Russell Westbrook

36.3 MPG: 27.2/6.5/11.8/3.8, 55.8% TS, 14.1% TO, 33.3 PER, 118.5 ORTG, 100.8 DRTG, 0.300 WS/48

Kevin Durant

38.4 MPG: 28.5/8.8/2.5/2.0/1.8, 55.9% TS, 14.3% TO, 23.0 PER, 104.2 ORTG, 101.1 DRTG, 0.156 WS/48

Stephen Curry

34.5 MPG: 24.2/5.5/4.5/2.0, 58.0% TS, 16.9% TO, 20.6 PER, 103.0 ORTG, 109.4 DRTG, 0.070 WS/48

Lebron James

36.7 MPG: 25.0/8.5/6.5/2.2, 67.6% TS, 10.8% TO, 36.2 PER, 135.3 ORTG, 101.9 DRTG, 0.393 WS/48

That's actually kind of shocking from Durant.

The king of consistency (for the last, what - 5+ seasons?) has had so much variance that he's putting up some pedestrian numbers while seeming unstoppable.

[SideshowBob]

That's actually kind of shocking from Durant.

The king of consistency (for the last, what - 5+ seasons?) has had so much variance that he's putting up some pedestrian numbers while seeming unstoppable.

Don't even need numbers. Against GSW being able to stretch the floor playing 4 without a negative defensive opportunity cost cleans up the spacing so well for OKC that he's providing a huge boost just by being there

[RSCD3_]

Even if OKC wins the title not sure it is enough for Westbrook nor Durant or anyone else to overtake Curry. No matter how bad Shaq would have played in 2000, no one was going to overtake him if the Lakers lost to Portland.

2000 also had much less competition. Kevin , Westbrook, LeBron would all easily be #2 in that era. Possibly kawhi leonard and maybe someone could argue george. Beyond shaq 2000 had a relatively low amount of borderline MVP seasons

[JordansBulls]

Even if OKC wins the title not sure it is enough for Westbrook nor Durant or anyone else to overtake Curry. No matter how bad Shaq would have played in 2000, no one was going to overtake him if the Lakers lost to Portland.

2000 also had much less competition. Kevin , Westbrook, LeBron would all easily be #2 in that era. Possibly kawhi leonard and maybe someone could argue george. Beyond shaq 2000 had a relatively low amount of borderline MVP seasons

We also talking about first unanimous mvp as well and record breaking wins season.

[GSP]

JB is so happy right now

[therealbig3]

If Curry continues to get badly outplayed by Westbrook (aka, this series needs to go at least 7, with Curry bringing his A game in the next 3 games), I don't see how I can take Curry over Westbrook this season. I understand the small sample size and the flaws in simply looking at H2H stats, but Westbrook also didn't miss any playoff games, and if not for GS's mediocre competition and the fact that they were a good enough team to win games without him, that could have loomed very large in terms of actual consequences.

Ditto for Durant and LeBron.

Green vs Curry is a legit debate for me right now. Curry hasn't played well at all, but I think he's been much better than Green in the conference finals, but then again, Green also didn't miss any playoff games, and he was their best player through the first two rounds...even though he's been their biggest liability in this series against OKC.

[PaulieWal]

If Curry continues to get badly outplayed by Westbrook (aka, this series needs to go at least 7, with Curry bringing his A game in the next 3 games), I don't see how I can take Curry over Westbrook this season. I understand the small sample size and the flaws in simply looking at H2H stats, but Westbrook also didn't miss any playoff games, and if not for GS's mediocre competition and the fact that they were a good enough team to win games without him, that could have loomed very large in terms of actual consequences.

Ditto for Durant and LeBron.

Green vs Curry is a legit debate for me right now. Curry hasn't played well at all, but I think he's been much better than Green in the conference finals, but then again, Green also didn't miss any playoff games, and he was their best player through the first two rounds...even though he's been their biggest liability in this series against OKC.

I agree mostly. I just don't see how you have Curry #1 with all the missed time. If they didn't get lucky with the CP injury the Warriors would have most likely lost in the 2nd round.

Oh well, I am looking forward to interesting conversations now with all the chaos in this PS.

[ronnymac2]

That's actually kind of shocking from Durant.

The king of consistency (for the last, what - 5+ seasons?) has had so much variance that he's putting up some pedestrian numbers while seeming unstoppable.

Don't even need numbers. Against GSW being able to stretch the floor playing 4 without a negative defensive opportunity cost cleans up the spacing so well for OKC that he's providing a huge boost just by being there

I think this might be the best version of Kevin Durant because of what you just stated. His defense looks absolutely phenomenal, particularly on the fast break and and coming over to help at the rim. Defending Iggy and Livingston and also Green on dives at the rim is huge against GS because they pressure the rim a ton. In the end, it's usually not the C who has to defend them, it's somebody else. That somebody else has been KD.

I think that aside from a made shot, the next best offensive result is generally your best creator/scorer missing a shot. Durant's USG% is the second highest it's ever been in the playoffs, and his FGA-per-36 is the highest it's ever been. He hasn't been limited; he's just missing from shots, which again, isn't a bad thing. Pretty much the only thing so far is that Durant is missing some 3's, but he's taking them, so the spacing is there. Durant is a much better passer than he is a playmaker from the live-dribble, so he's doing that and connected with guys on cuts.

Two-way PF/SF hybrids with strong defensive rebounding are looking like the easiest archetype to build a team around. LeBron James. Larry Bird. 2016 Kevin Durant. I mean, they are so easy to slot onto good teams. Not saying they are the best type, but for all practical purposes, they might be.

I would give OKC the advantage against Cleveland if those two face each other, because in the end, the biggest advantage OKC has had vs. the two behemoth SRS gods has been their rebounding, and I don't think anything changes vs. Cleveland because of the staggering advantage in little man rebounding for OKC. Westbrook/Roberson is amazing on the glass, and when Durant is at the SF, forget it. All 3 had double-digit rebounding tonight. Parker/Mills/Green/Manu isn't good at rebounding. Curry/Thompson/Livingston is OK. Kyrie/J.R./Delly sucks (Shump helps, but probs won't get enough MPG). What that advantage allows is for flexibility in how they play their frontcourt...they can go big with two bigs, or go small with one big and still not get blasted on the boards. I think OKC will be fine with 1 big vs. Tristan lineups, especially if that big is Adams. Adams/Ibaka vs. Tristan should be an amazing matchup. CLE's offensive rebounding is pretty good, but their overall rebounding advantages come from their bigs. I think OKC can match them when they want in the frontcourt and still control them in the backcourt.

That said, CLE has advantages as well. They can pull bigs out, and LeBron is still a nightmare matchup. Enigmatic Kyrie might also be an x-factor.

Whatever, might still be Raptors vs. Warriors in the FInals, with Bismack averaging 11 points, 17 rebounds, 3 blocks, 62% shooting, .9 TPG, and dominant defense in 38 MPG to win FInals MVP.

[GSP]

Durant is a much better passer than he is a playmaker from the live-dribble, so he's doing that and connected with guys on cuts.

I dont know why Okc has him dribble from the 3pt line to initiate a set. Its a turnover every time. Id add that Kevin is at the high post where he belongs when he plays the 4. The turnovers and playmaking issues arent there when hes there. Dude looks like a weird mix of prime Kg/Dirk in the high post with his passing and the defense in the small lineups.

[E-Balla]

Even if OKC wins the title not sure it is enough for Westbrook nor Durant or anyone else to overtake Curry. No matter how bad Shaq would have played in 2000, no one was going to overtake him if the Lakers lost to Portland.

2000 also had much less competition. Kevin , Westbrook, LeBron would all easily be #2 in that era. Possibly kawhi leonard and maybe someone could argue george. Beyond shaq 2000 had a relatively low amount of borderline MVP seasons

Paul George can't possibly be argued over Zo, KG, Karl, GP, or Grant.

[Jim Naismith]

If Curry continues to get badly outplayed by Westbrook (aka, this series needs to go at least 7, with Curry bringing his A game in the next 3 games), I don't see how I can take Curry over Westbrook this season.

If Curry brought his B game, wouldn't that be even worse for Curry?

[kayess]

If Curry continues to get badly outplayed by Westbrook (aka, this series needs to go at least 7, with Curry bringing his A game in the next 3 games), I don't see how I can take Curry over Westbrook this season.

If Curry brought his B game, wouldn't that be even worse for Curry?

Probably just a wording error on therealbig3's part - he was caught in between "unless Curry brings his A game and it goes 7 games", to explain a point about how Curry can feasibly keep the POY #1 spot over Westbrook.

[Quotatious]

inb4 Kobe fans cite LeBron's 2009/2010 wins in the RPOY voting

I mean obviously 2009 isn't even close to being the same situation because of the should've-been-GOAT playoff run, but what about 2010? In both instances, the runaway best player in the league underperforms vs. an eventual finalist (who match up very well against them), probably due to injury (Spaceman's talked about Steph's, SSB's talked about Bron's elbow thing and the 2 days of rest theory). Both might get outperformed in the playoffs by a superstar at the tail end of their prime.

Of course, tail end prime Bron > tail end prime Kobe, even accounting for portability, and Bron's single-year NPI RAPM is actually just .09 (!!) behind Curry, and his team has been killing it in the playoffs.

I don't think LeBron underperforming against Boston in 2010 should matter in a comparison with Kobe, at all, because Bryant didn't even perform better than James, against the common opponent. He just had a much better supporting cast. It's not like James struggled against Boston that year. He still had a good series. Below his RS standards, but still good enough to match or exceed Kobe (that's because LeBron's RS standards were so ridiculous, he was a GOAT level player in that RS).

The only guy who really outplayed LeBron in the 2010 playoffs was Wade - he performed clearly better than both LeBron and Kobe against Boston. However, one series shouldn't outweigh an entire 70-80 game regular season, that strongly opposes common sense, to me.

[NyCeEvO]

Conference Finals through 4 games

Russell Westbrook

36.3 MPG: 27.2/6.5/11.8/3.8, 55.8% TS, 14.1% TO, 33.3 PER, 118.5 ORTG, 100.8 DRTG, 0.300 WS/48

Kevin Durant

38.4 MPG: 28.5/8.8/2.5/2.0/1.8, 55.9% TS, 14.3% TO, 23.0 PER, 104.2 ORTG, 101.1 DRTG, 0.156 WS/48

Stephen Curry

34.5 MPG: 24.2/5.5/4.5/2.0, 58.0% TS, 16.9% TO, 20.6 PER, 103.0 ORTG, 109.4 DRTG, 0.070 WS/48

Lebron James

36.7 MPG: 25.0/8.5/6.5/2.2, 67.6% TS, 10.8% TO, 36.2 PER, 135.3 ORTG, 101.9 DRTG, 0.393 WS/48

We need to talk about LBJ's impact. If we simply look at his TS% and ORTG, I'm sure many would argue that he's playing better than his counterparts by a decent clip but I just don't see that by the eye test.

None of these advanced stats show that LBJ is kinda hurting his team by basically refusing to take the 3s the Raptors are daring him to take. I'm not going as far as those who thinks he holds his efficiency stats as the things most dear to him but I do think it must be counted as a negative that he either can't or is refusing to even keep the Raptors defense honest by taking long jumpers.

He's either barreling into the paint for a close shot or passing out for an open 3. Yes, you would like your superstars to pass up good shots for great shots but I can't bring myself to say that he's playing lights out when he just refuses to take 3s and will only take close shots.

Westbrook gets killed for taking a high volume of 3s on such a poor percentage, but I'd argue that his willingness to take 3s even at his low percentage forces the defense to play up on him at all times. They can't sag off of him. And yet even if they don't sag, Westbrook is just as likely to pull up for a 3 as he is to keep driving and attack the basket at will.

I'd have to do more in-depth research but I'd argue that by forcing the defense to spread itself out to the 3-point line at all times. Once he drives, the defense has to come from farther distances to collapse on him, which could leave his teammates open for better shots.

[Doctor MJ]

Some thoughts:

-I think that Curry is quite vulnerable to losing our POY...but I don't see anything that damning generally. I don't think there's anything about his game that is being exposed right now really. I'd still be ecstatic to have him as my offensive anchor.

-On the other hand, Draymond Green is much more of a concern. The reality is that so much of his success depends on him being able to not get his team burned by the physical limitations that kept him from being a top prospect. Being a "tweener" just means that there will be mismatches, and as long as you take more than you give, it's a good thing. But of course we always ask ourselves, "Is there a way to truly exploit this guy?". OKC seems to be giving an answer that is a resounding "YES!".

This isn't to say that Green couldn't be a part of a lineup that allowed him to function better against these Thunder...but the reason why we're talking about him in a POY discussion is because of how much damage he does from the 4 & 5, and as things stand, it makes you really question if Green in those roles is really tenable against OKC. And when a player becomes the symbol of what the opposing team can exploit, well, it's awfully hard to think of this guy as being in the same tier as "superstars". Series isn't over yet, but wow, Green looks exposed.

-Russell Freaking Westbrook. While I like to point to my time cheering for Westbrook at UCLA, the reality is that for years I've been a Westbrook skeptic based on the game he plays in the NBA. It's starting to look like I'm going to have to eat crow.

To be clear, I never suggested Westbrook wasn't an amazing talent and I certainly have had him as an All-NBA player, but when people were going nuts about Westbrook last year, I was there poking holes. The thing is, I still believe those holes needed to be poked. When people went nuts about Westbrook's defensive rebounds, they really weren't understanding how little help that was to OKC.

What we seem to be seeing though is that a smart coach could smooth out Westbrook's rougher edges without too much of an issue. Westbrook & Durant have redundancy, but can each carry the offense by himself? Okay, make sure at least one is on the floor at all time. Westbrook tends to gamble? Surround him with players that let him get away with it. I'll also note that Westbrook's defensive rebounding is way down in the playoffs, while his offensive rebounds and steals numbers are strong.

If OKC were to continue like this, blowing out SAS, then GSW, then CLE, then what you seem to have his a team that is potentially an all-time great that is built in Westbrook's image. That is a really big deal.

-I don't want to dismiss Durant in all this. Even when we quibble about him not being his best, the reality is that OKC's chaotic lack of a system would really hurt the team the moment Westbrook went to the bench if Durant weren't there. Durant deserves a lot of credit for this, and praise of Westbrook should be tempered with the knowledge that OKC"s success depends on Westbrook being able to rely on a teammate who is a superstar that can do great things while Westbrook is on the bench...

but we're not seeing OKC squeak by here right now. If OKC can continue to be utterly dominant against the best competition, Westbrook likely becomes an icon for the ages. Simple as that.

A couple other thoughts:

-Donovan may end up winning my COY. I have misgivings about giving such praise for a guy who didn't seem to make needed adjustments in the regular season and who quite frankly might have been lucky that his big move in the playoff worked so well, but this is also why I'm quick to praise coaches who make a great adjustment and slow to knock a coach who doesn't. It's entirely possible that Kerr in OKC makes the same moves only better, but Donovan is the one in the position to make the adjustment, and he did so. If it proves to be the adjustment that keys a championship, it won't be easy to rank any other coach ahead of him.

-If my concerns about Green continue, he's not going to get my DPOY. Kawhi didn't look amazing against OKC, but I still think he's absolutely a player who can be huge for a top tier team without concerns for line up kryptonite.

-If GS doesn't come back, the bad ending combined with the injuries will likely make me pick someone else other than Curry for POY...but I'm still leaning toward Curry for OPOY.

[bondom34]

Also, credit to Donovan for what he's doing with Roberson. He's basically the 4 on offense, and is playing it extremely well.

[lorak]

https://thecauldron.si.com/and-the-nba-rookie-of-the-year-award-goes-to-f7f48172e40d#.l75t4vu5x