Please evaluate KCP compared to other SGs in the league

[Ryoga Hibiki]

I thread to scroll through the thread, but I'm still haven't been able to figure out what KCP stands for...

[JLei]

Right now he's about a poor man's Jae Crowder. A plus defender, particularly good on ball and especially getting through screens. As for 3's. He shoots'em enough that atleast people guard him out there.

However he's on that tippy toe line where he could easily become Iman Shumpert if he doesn't improve his jumper. Though Shumpert had a down season is probably a better defender but went from an offensive neutral to a negative as teams just plain ignored him this season.

The first player you are fine paying 20 million to. The second one probably not.

[Illmatic12]

Thanks, everyone. Feel free to vote if you haven't already, but nineteen votes now is a decent sample size.

I'll add the context at this point -- there's a vocal minority on the Pistons board that thinks KCP needs to be traded. He's about to play the last year of his rookie deal, and, given the market, he's about to get paid, I'd guess 20 million a year at a minimum. It's fair to say that his offense has been inconsistent, and giving out that kind of money to a guy that can shoot you out of a game is a bit scary.

I hope the Pistons wait and see how he performs this year on a team that wants to do more than make the playoffs -- they want to win at least a series. There's risk, of course, because if KCP shoots 36% from three this year, he'll likely get a max contract offer from someone. The Pistons can afford to pay that contract, but there's also the option to move him along, go with the cheaper Bullock (or someone else in FA), and use the money elsewhere.

I had the feeling KCP was regarded as at least an average starting SG, and while the opinions of RealGM posters aren't the opinions of NBA GM's, it's something.

SG is a weak position and money is flying everywhere. It's a good time to be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

It's too early to say trade him. He has some flaws in his game, but he's only 23yo going into his 4th season. You definitely let him play the season out and see how he performs. If his inconsistency remains or he doesn't improve his 3pt shooting, passing, or rebounding then the DET front office has to start considering replacement options at a cheaper price tag.

Washington is in a similar position with Otto Porter. If he plays well this year, say ~15ppg and shoots 40% from three, he's going to get a massive offer in the $20-22M+ range and that would give me pause.


In fact I'd be willing to bet the Brooklyn Nets give a max offer sheet to either Pope or Porter. It's definitely a good time to be a young NBA wing player.

Yeah, there are a number of players in this situation. KCP's rebounding isn't really a concern -- Dre gobbles up most of the boards, and KCP's job is to get out in transition if possible. He's unbelievably fast.

Passing, though, you'd like to see some improvement. He has progressed a little in this area, but not much. He's definitely a shoot first kind of guy with irrational confidence. He has games in which he's an offensive force, because he gets good height on his jumper and can basically get his shot off whenever he wants. The games it's not going in, though -- yikes. He still fires away whenever he gets a chance.

He has improved his handle, however. He will attack hard closeouts now, and his free throw rate is starting to rise as a result. He's also fearless in traffic, and although he's fairly slight, he'll take it hard to the rim if you give him a lane.

I like him. I'm not part of the "trade him" minority. It's time to step up, though. The good defense is nice, but the Pistons do need better perimeter shooters to play the offense they want to play.

Fair point about his rebounding, maybe SVG wants him to forget the boards to run back on defense. KCP is pretty solid from midrange and is a good finisher, so he has some untapped scoring potential. Also he was 12th overall in transition attempts at 1.19 PPP, that's definitely a very strong point for him offensively. But iirc the streaky 3pt shooting label has followed him since college, scouts weren't sure if his 3pt shooting was going to carry over to the NBA consistently. That's probably the #1 thing he's got to work on as a scorer, he has a quick trigger and likes to launch Klay Thompson-type attempts but has never been that kind of shooter.

And he's got be able to see the court better and make plays. It's not only about having better shooters, DETs offense needs competent passers (last season 29th out of 30 in AST%). That starts with the backcourt - no way around it, a starting SG has to give you more than 0-2 assists in 36+ minutes.

Agreed, it's not 'trade him' time but certainly time to step up. Thus far KCP is producing fine for his age, but once you start talking about ~$100-120M+ contracts he's got to prove his worth this season - esp on offense.

[NinjaSheppard]

He is above average because of motor and defense. His shot which has been his strength until the pros is about better selection and he already improved ball handling. He is working on that again this summer. Another aspect is coachable. All of his coaches speak highly of him including me from Greenville Middle School GA. So I say he is behind Harden, Klay, Butler, Wade, Derozan, McCullom, Beal, Oladipo. I will say this put him on Clippers, Cavaliers, Celtics, Hawks, He improves all these playoff teams.

No chance he's better than Redick or Bradley. I don't think he's better than Korver or JR either.

KCP would fit better for Clippers because he is not a liability on defense and Chris Paul makes guards shoot where he wants them to not whenever he wants. Shooting automatically better. As far as Bradley I take the guy who is durable over the other any day of the week. Plus the obvious size advantage. Korver is 35 years old in a system made for him and still gets pulled out because of defensive matchups. And I love JR but a younger version without the baggage is not contest.

No just no. JJ Redick is insanely important to the Clippers offense and he isn't a liability defensively. The two guys aren't even close as players.

[trex_8063]

I'd rate him perhaps just marginally above average: excellent defender, motor, and plays within his game very well (I did a search for all seasons of >18% usage but <2 tov/100 possessions while playing at least 15 games @ >27 mpg..........there are only about five or so players having such a season each year in the last decade--->53 such player seasons in the last 10 years).
fwiw, I think he's just a small improvement to his outside shooting away from being a "very good" SG.

[Im Your Father]

No chance he's better than Redick or Bradley. I don't think he's better than Korver or JR either.

KCP would fit better for Clippers because he is not a liability on defense and Chris Paul makes guards shoot where he wants them to not whenever he wants. Shooting automatically better. As far as Bradley I take the guy who is durable over the other any day of the week. Plus the obvious size advantage. Korver is 35 years old in a system made for him and still gets pulled out because of defensive matchups. And I love JR but a younger version without the baggage is not contest.

No just no. JJ Redick is insanely important to the Clippers offense and he isn't a liability defensively. The two guys aren't even close as players.

This. Redick actually plays solid defense and is an elite floor spacer and shooter. Are you suggesting that Redick's shooting is entirety a product of Chris Paul? The guy was hitting 40% of his 3s before coming to LA, and is the NCAA all-time leader in 3 point field goals. He is worlds better than KCP.

[tmorgan]

And he's got be able to see the court better and make plays. It's not only about having better shooters, DETs offense needs competent passers (last season 29th out of 30 in AST%). That starts with the backcourt - no way around it, a starting SG has to give you more than 0-2 assists in 36+ minutes.

This is getting off-topic in a KCP thread, but yeah, I believe the team's biggest issue isn't three point shooting, although that certainly needs to improve. The biggest issue is passing and shot creation. We do run a ton of P&R, and Reggie ends up shooting it himself a lot of the time, so that doesn't lead to assists. That's not the only reason, though -- KCP isn't a good passer. Morris and Harris are OK passers, but certainly not point forward types. Drummond is, for the most part, a black hole once he gets the ball. Our starting unit relies heavily on the ball handling and shot creation of Reggie Jackson, and he's closer to a combo guard than a real point guard most nights.

The team needs a secondary shot creator in the starting lineup in the worst way. We're all hoping that's Stanley Johnson, but he has a lot of development to do yet.

[Illmatic12]

And he's got be able to see the court better and make plays. It's not only about having better shooters, DETs offense needs competent passers (last season 29th out of 30 in AST%). That starts with the backcourt - no way around it, a starting SG has to give you more than 0-2 assists in 36+ minutes.

This is getting off-topic in a KCP thread, but yeah, I believe the team's biggest issue isn't three point shooting, although that certainly needs to improve. The biggest issue is passing and shot creation. We do run a ton of P&R, and Reggie ends up shooting it himself a lot of the time, so that doesn't lead to assists. That's not the only reason, though -- KCP isn't a good passer. Morris and Harris are OK passers, but certainly not point forward types. Drummond is, for the most part, a black hole once he gets the ball. Our starting unit relies heavily on the ball handling and shot creation of Reggie Jackson, and he's closer to a combo guard than a real point guard most nights.

The team needs a secondary shot creator in the starting lineup in the worst way. We're all hoping that's Stanley Johnson, but he has a lot of development to do yet.

Agreed. Johnson has played the point forward role in the HS and college ranks, he has potential there even though he's still young. I think in the immediate future, KCP has to be the guy to improve. And Jackson could learn to see the floor a bit better as well and not be as predictable. Morris/Harris/Drummond are good finishers but they need the playmaking around them.

[Clyde Frazier]

Just looked a little closer at KCP vs. redick, and while there are a few metrics in his favor, I don't think he was better last season, and it remains to be seen for this coming season. Redick's value as an off the ball scorer is huge at that position (relatively high volume + elite efficiency), and he's improved his playmaking / defense enough over the years to put him closer to that top tier of SGs. I don't see the gap in minutes as a huge deal as redick has been healthy -- he could play more minutes if he had to (in that 32 MPG range).

[Todd3]

I'd rate him perhaps just marginally above average: excellent defender, motor, and plays within his game very well (I did a search for all seasons of >18% usage but <2 tov/100 possessions while playing at least 15 games @ >27 mpg..........there are only about five or so players having such a season each year in the last decade--->53 such player seasons in the last 10 years).
fwiw, I think he's just a small improvement to his outside shooting away from being a "very good" SG.

That stat is very misleading. He rarely turns it over because he rarely dribbles or passes. His USG is mostly from catch & shoot and 1-2 dribble pull-ups, which may seem like he's playing within himself and avoiding things he's not good at (dribbling/passing), except he's not good at catch & shoot/pull-ups either. So when he's only making 42%/30% of shots, yet still taking 12 FGA/5 threes per game, he's really not playing to his strengths . All those misses are still turnovers/bad decisions that just aren't recorded as such statistically.

Players like Roberson/Tony Allen who know their limitations and don't jack a bunch of shots they can't make are playing within themselves.

His .309 3P% is more than a small improvement from being a very good SG.

[Todd3]

And he's got be able to see the court better and make plays. It's not only about having better shooters, DETs offense needs competent passers (last season 29th out of 30 in AST%). That starts with the backcourt - no way around it, a starting SG has to give you more than 0-2 assists in 36+ minutes.

It's both. We were 29th in AST% and 21st in 3P%.

Reggie avg 6.2 assists and .353 3P%. KCP avg 1.8 assists and .309 3P% (worst in the starting 5 in both)

It's easy to see who the problem is.

Also should be noted that we got the 5th most uncontested 3s in the league, so it's not a matter of better passing solving the shooting issue by getting better shots. It's actually the opposite. We already get great shots. If we had players who can make them, then our assists would increase by default.

We do need more ball-handlers though.

[tmorgan]

Lead me introduce you to the head of the "trade KCP" faction, Todd3.

KCP shot .489 on non-threes last year, which is a perfectly acceptable number. Some of it is from transition (he's great there), and some of it is from mid-range (a very solid .476 from 10-16 feet last year). He doesn't get enough shot attempts from that distance, though, and a lot of that is a lack of handle.

That said, there are clear trends for KCP's first three seasons:

1) His FT rate has improved every season
2) His 2P% has increased every season, as has his TS%
3) His AST% has increased every season, although it's still bad
4) A lot of other stuff has remained relatively constant despite increased playing time: RB%, STL%, BLK%

He's getting better. He's still got a lot of work to do, particularly on the offensive end, but there are plenty of good signs.

[trex_8063]

I'd rate him perhaps just marginally above average: excellent defender, motor, and plays within his game very well (I did a search for all seasons of >18% usage but <2 tov/100 possessions while playing at least 15 games @ >27 mpg..........there are only about five or so players having such a season each year in the last decade--->53 such player seasons in the last 10 years).
fwiw, I think he's just a small improvement to his outside shooting away from being a "very good" SG.

That stat is very misleading. He rarely turns it over because he rarely dribbles or passes. His USG is mostly from catch & shoot and 1-2 dribble pull-ups, which may seem like he's playing within himself and avoiding things he's not good at (dribbling/passing), except he's not good at catch & shoot/pull-ups either. So when he's only making 42%/30% of shots, yet still taking 12 FGA/5 threes per game, he's really not playing to his strengths . All those misses are still turnovers/bad decisions that just aren't recorded as such statistically.

Players like Roberson/Tony Allen who know their limitations and don't jack a bunch of shots they can't make are playing within themselves.

His .309 3P% is more than a small improvement from being a very good SG.

Fair enough, I may have overstated things, and in particular I was questioning the inclusion of the "small" in that statement when I wrote it. But it doesn't necessarily require a huge improvement either. For example if he was just ~5% better from 3pt range (more than "small", sure, but not a huge jump): if he took the exact same number of shots and same distribution, but was now ~36% instead of 30.9%.....he'd now have scored at almost exactly league avg volume per possession at slightly above average TS% (and the effects those changes would have on his PER, WS/48, BPM, etc), combined with his low tov rate.

That, combined with defense and ability to play high minutes while maintaining high energy.........I'd rate him at least on the cusp of being "very good" if he improved his shooting to that degree.

[wise1-2]

If he becomes a consistent shooter, he's a top 10 SG. I love his defense, he's one if the best guard defenders in the league IMO.

[Colbinii]

Lead me introduce you to the head of the "trade KCP" faction, Todd3.

KCP shot .489 on non-threes last year, which is a perfectly acceptable number. Some of it is from transition (he's great there), and some of it is from mid-range (a very solid .476 from 10-16 feet last year). He doesn't get enough shot attempts from that distance, though, and a lot of that is a lack of handle.

That said, there are clear trends for KCP's first three seasons:

1) His FT rate has improved every season
2) His 2P% has increased every season, as has his TS%
3) His AST% has increased every season, although it's still bad
4) A lot of other stuff has remained relatively constant despite increased playing time: RB%, STL%, BLK%

He's getting better. He's still got a lot of work to do, particularly on the offensive end, but there are plenty of good signs.

Good post. One thing that will prevent KCP from ever being a top 5 SG is a lack of playmaking/ball handling.
That being said, you have highlighted a lot of positive things from him. He is extremely good at taking care of the ball. He isn't turnover prone what-so ever, evidenced by being a rookie and posting a 5.4 TOV%
Another positive thing for him is steady improvement from almost every asset of basketball. A lot of these don't show up in stats, but if you watch him, they are there.
KCP is going to be a player that peaks at a 15-16 PER, 54 - 55 TS%, .120 WS/48; yet will be having an all-star-lite impact.

[wallsfamily]

Kentavious plays more minutes than anybody on the Pistons a team that improved as well as anybody in the league. I trust Van Gundy knows what he is doing. He had a tremendous series against Cavs. improved at everything except shot selection which will improve his percentage.

[bondom34]

TBH had Presti not gone after Dipo I would have absolutely loved him on OKC.

[Colbinii]

TBH had Presti not gone after Dipo I would have absolutely loved him on OKC.

You guys are infatuated with SGs that can't shoot. I see why you guys traded Harden because he didn't fit the mold of a non-shooting SG.

[bondom34]

TBH had Presti not gone after Dipo I would have absolutely loved him on OKC.

You guys are infatuated with SGs that can't shoot. I see why you guys traded Harden because he didn't fit the mold of a non-shooting SG.

I have a feeling KCP will improve, and Oladipo's not a bad shooter per se. He was a better shooter than Serge last year, but he's not lights out either.

[Colbinii]

TBH had Presti not gone after Dipo I would have absolutely loved him on OKC.

You guys are infatuated with SGs that can't shoot. I see why you guys traded Harden because he didn't fit the mold of a non-shooting SG.

I have a feeling KCP will improve, and Oladipo's not a bad shooter per se. He was a better shooter than Serge last year, but he's not lights out either.

I know, I was just trying to give you crap
I think both Dipo and KCP will be average 3 pt shooters next year