FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak

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FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#1 » by ardee » Fri Jun 2, 2017 7:57 pm

AustinCarr61 wrote:


Image

2000 Shaquille O'Neal
1991 Scottie Pippen
2006 Rasheed Wallace
1991 Terry Porter
2013 Danny Green
1994 Charles Oakley
2001 Brent Barry
1996 Steve Kerr

lorak wrote:


Image

2003 Tim Duncan
2008 Kobe Bryant
1996 Dennis Rodman
2017 Mike Conley
2012 Paul George
2011 Tyson Chandler
1987 Paul Pressey
2009 Trevor Ariza

Contestants have until 4 PM EST on Sunday to submit their write-ups, that is exactly 48 hours. Then after that, hopefully judges can submit their votes in a further 48 hours.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#2 » by lorak » Fri Jun 2, 2017 11:20 pm

Haha, AustinCarr61's team was no 1 on my power ranking list, which I sent to Ardee ;) On the other hand some players were chosen by me partly because of how they did great job vs Shaq (as I think he is the best in the paint C scorer ever, so if someone was able to limit him, then he would have a chance to do the same with other ATG bigs). 1996 ECF are known by everyone, but in 2001 Duncan held O'Neal to just 0.92 ppp, that includes 0.57 on postups! (vs Drob it was 0.87 and 0.88 vs Rose.) Anyway, I hope I will be able to post my writeup before G2 of current finals.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#3 » by ardee » Sat Jun 3, 2017 8:06 am

This is a great matchup. Shaq/Pippen vs Kobe/Duncan is legendary.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#4 » by AustinCarr61 » Sat Jun 3, 2017 7:50 pm

Image

Seasons Selected
Shaquille O'Neal 99-00 (21.1)
Scottie Pippen 90-91 (14.1)
Rasheed Wallace 05-06 (13.3)
Terry Porter 90-91 (11.7)
Danny Green 12-13 (8.3)
Charles Oakley 93-94 (9.3)
Brent Barry 00-01 (6.0)
Steve Kerr 96-97 (5.7)

Rotation
PG: Porter (37) / Kerr (11)
SG: Green (32) / Barry (16)
SF: Pippen (40) / Barry (8)
PF: Wallace (28) / Oakley (20)
C: Shaq (40) / Wallace (8)

Generic Gameplan
Unsurprisingly, we're going to feature lots of triangle/motion looks with Shaq in the low post. Obviously, this Shaq season is the peak of his dominance, and most teams didn't attempt to play him straight up - either fouling extensively or doubling and fronting immediately. This is what a 4-time DPOY looked like trying to play peak Shaq straight up (look at 1:08 :lol:):

Considering the 8 man rosters, fouling is not much of an option, and with the upgraded spacing on my team (see table below) it will be hard to balance the second, especially as Shaq was a fine big man passer (3.8 AST/G this year). He can also set crushing screens to open space for others or as a roll man.
Image
Look at the spacing in this clip and how dominant he is. And then imagine him with elite spacing :o :o :

Defensively, he was the most dominant rim protector in the league, and could obviously defend anyone on the block due to his size and athleticism combined with a motivated approach in this season. He isn't going to switch onto speedy guards beyond the arc but he's still an excellent athlete for a C and the things he could do were very high level. He provides the anchor for my athletic perimeter guys.

Scottie Pippen isn't listed as a three point shooter above - that's because he wasn't an exceptional one (other than the short-line years). But lots of the threes he did take were off the dribble (see the video below - it only shows the makes :lol:), and he wasn't an awful catch and shoot guy. And playing off him would be a mistake as he was an exceptional slasher with great handles who could drive to score and to kick out to the finishers. He was also a capable drop-off passer and will feed Shaq some easy dunks too. He was more than capable of being a secondary playmaker by this stage, and his athleticism gives me a semblance of a transition threat. And obviously as a defender he has no peer and he will rise to the challenge against the best perimeter threat. His combination of instincts, athleticism and length is unparalleled, and he will set the tone on the perimeter.

I took 1991 as I felt it is his best playoffs (21.6 pts on 56.4% TS and led the league in DWS) and he was certainly no slouch in the regular season. And we know he's happy to be a 2nd banana as long as the other player is good enough (i.e. not Toni Kukoc :lol:) - and peak Shaq obviously qualifies.

Sheed will generally operate from the high post, even when Shaq is resting (Oakley will be free to work close to the rim) and he can run PnR and PnP with any of the ball handlers. He can punish smaller defenders on the block (if switched onto) and he's another good passer to keep the ball moving (2.3 AST/G, 11.2 AST%). 2006 gives me his best ranged shooting year, which I needed for this team. Defensively he can go up against the best post-up PFs and more than hold his own, and he's quick and physical against the PnR types; he can hedge and recover very well. Obviously some character concerns, but there's a reason why he kept going deep into the post-season - and he's happy to play his role and won't chafe for more shots.


Terry Porter was used to sharing creation responsibilities with Clyde the Glide, and as a big PG (6'3 200) who can shoot from everywhere, he's a good fit in triangle sets. He can also run traditional pick and roll action well enough that especially as secondary action after a ball swing against a scrambled defense, he can get into the lane and finish effectively (those Portland teams didn't space the floor as effectively as we do here, and Shaq is a huge lob threat).

He'll also get chances to run some different actions when Sheed is at C, as that will draw the opposing big out of the paint. Defensively he's well above average with good length, strength and quickness; he had plenty of success against Stockton for example. Super-athletic guards gave him issues but everyone else he was a plus against.

Danny Green lacks some ball handling, but he can shoot like crazy, and he keeps the ball moving with quick decisions. But he'll earn his money on the defensive end where he can guard 1-3 and combines with Pippen to form the GOAT defensive transition combo - he'll force teams to let Shaq get back under the basket. And he gives a nice jolt of athleticism and both fill lanes or trail on the break. With every starter being a plus passer for their position and the amount of attention Shaq will command, I feel he'll get some good looks in his sweet spots.

The role players bring certain skills - peak Oakley (1994) was a 1st team All-Defense guy who rebounded exceptionally, and could hit mid-range shots when open. He brings tons of physicality (especially in short minutes) and can expand his role if there are any issues with Sheed. And sometimes you just have to punch Charles Barkley.
Brent Barry was an excellent athlete and shooter with a great skillset - he just had a role-players mentality for most of his career - not a problem here as he is one, but nice to know he can give me some shot creation if needed. And Kerr has one job - hit his 3s - and while he's the one sub-par defender I have, he'll always be on the floor with Pippen and Green so he'll only be guarding spot up shooters. Obviously he's familiar with the triangle and gives me a "coach on the floor".

As a side note, all of my guys had great post-seasons (except Barry, who played on a poor team and missed entirely) and have experience at the sharp end (Shaq/Pip/Kerr won rings, Green/Oakley lost in Finals G7 in chosen years; Wallace/Barry won rings in their career and Porter played in the finals)

Matchup Specific
First of all, lorak has built a nice team here around a great axis. Important to note a couple of non-peak years selected - Paul George is little more than a role-player in 2012, averaging 9.7 PPG on 49.9 TS% in the playoffs, although he does provide good spacing and defense. Likewise, 2009 Trevor Ariza isn't really his peak, although it is less important as a pure role-player.

But Kobe and Duncan are very much peak years, and the guys we need to stop. Duncan will be guarded by Rasheed when he's on the court as he was an excellent defender in the post and can stick with Duncan outside; Shaq will guard Rodman (and the rim). Shaq will guard Duncan when Sheed is off, and Oakley will battle the Worm. Their length and strength be able to keep Tim away from the rim as much as possible, and Green and Pippen both have the athleticism to help and recover to their assignments. Kobe will be shadowed by Pippen, the perfect defender for this assignment. He's not going to shut him down - Kobe is a top 20 peak for a reason - but Scottie's length should allow him to contest well enough even on the fadeaways, and he can stick with the majority of Kobe's moves. Green is fine checking Paul George (PG mainly played the 2 that year IRL) and can spell Pip for a series or two if he's getting worn down. Porter will be fine with Conley, who he has the length against anyway. Pressey will get a solid defender but we can hide Kerr on Ariza fairly comfortably. I'm confident we can match up defensively. Obviously, Rodman provides very little offensively so help can come from his man as long as they ensure they get a body on him when the shot goes up.

On the glass, Rodman and Duncan are the primary concerns. When Oakley is in I should be fine here as he was an excellent rebounder and extremely physical, but Rodman will need some attention when Sheed is guarding him (particularly if he helps on Duncan) so Pippen and Green (thankfully good rebounders) as well as Barry will have to help on the glass. On the other hand, lorak's wings outside of Kobe aren't great on the boards in these seasons, so overall I feel rebounding is a wash.

And for my offense, I feel Porter has a decent shot against Conley, and Pippens' slashing game should hold up against this version of George. The role players will hit their 3s, and Sheed is versatile and smart enough to find a way even against a great defender - and will pull Chandler out of the paint when he plays the 5. But ultimately I just don't think they have an answer for this version of Shaq. Rodman is just too small - he had success against Orlando Shaq, but 2000 is a whole different beast in terms of polish. Chandler is a fine rim protector and PnR defender, but he is giving up 90lbs in the post and he was never known for that; Shaq would punish him - he's built like Rik Smits and we know how that turned out.

Also interesting to note is that lorak really only has 3 players who can play the 4 or 5 - George is a SG at this point and Lakers Ariza was skinny as heck. Considering they are going against a big physical frontline and Shaq is drawing fouls left and right, that could be a significant handicap. Which leaves Tim Duncan - who deferred to David Robinson whenever they played peak Shaq in real life, and he's so important to their offense that he just can't foul out (as then it would be the Kobe show). I think in the end this comes down to who has the best player, and with all due respect to 2003 Tim who I love, the big man's gonna eat.

Good luck to lorak and may the best team win!
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#5 » by lorak » Sun Jun 4, 2017 5:38 pm

Code: Select all

FGA   PLAYER
17,2   Tim Duncan ‘03
20,6   Kobe Bryant ‘08
4,8   Dennis Rodman ‘96
14,6   Mike Conley '17
9,7   Paul George '12
5,5   Tyson Chandler '11
10,1   Paul Pressey '86
7,3   Trevor Ariza '09
89,8   TOTAL


vs

Code: Select all

      
FGA   PLAYER
21,1   Shaquille O'Neal '00
14,1   Scottie Pippen '91
13,3   Rasheed Wallace '06
11,7   Terry Porter '91
8,3   Danny Green '13
9,3   Charles Oakley '94
6   Brent Barry '01
5,9   Steve Kerr '96
89,7   TOTAL


Rotation
PG Conley/Pressey
SG Kobe/Pressey/George
SF George/Ariza/Pressey
PF Rodman/Ariza/Duncan
C Duncan/Chandler

As I’ve said above, I think AustinCarr has the best squad in this tournament, but my team was built with a thought, that I will face Shaq/other dominant big, so let’s see how this will play out. In any case, congratulation AustinCarr for constructing so amazing team!

My general concept was to create big-small scoring duo, with no weak links on defense or fit/chemistry problems. That’s why I chose Kobe with his strong personality to play alongside Duncan and no one else is ball dominant on this team.

We all know every player here, but I want to point out some things about several of my guys:

- Pressey was a point forward and will be my playmaker from the bench. I feel that he is still underrated so please read what Bastiilon wrote about him

total Pressey 85-87
out 106.2 / 109.2 (49g)
in 109.0 / 104.9 (197g)

that's +2.8 on offense, -4.3 defense
total +7.1 to 3.1


- Duncan will be my center, when in the year picked he played more minutes as PF (according to b-r 56%-44% splits), so I’m not sure if that will be a problem for some of you guys. That’s why I want to point out that Tim was no doubt able to play C in 2003 and did it on as good level as PF. In 1314 minutes as center (so with Rose as 2nd big) Spurs were +9.1, while + 12.4 (1347 minutes) when Tim and DRob played together. That's about 3 pts difference, so quite similar to David's value in 2003 (and Malik was slightly above 0), thus it seems like quality of play didn't regress when Duncan played center. On defense he also did outstanding job in the middle, but I will talk about it more discussing defense vs Shaq.

- I picked young version of Paul George, but not rookie and he was already at least decent 3p shooter (38.5%, 3.5 3PA), as well as very good defender (top 30 in both NPI and PI DRAPM). So he gives me exactly what I need and at the same time his young age (and thus not alpha role on Pacers) removes potential problems with sharing the ball with Kobe and Duncan. He also wouldn’t be force to be playmaker here, so him being turnover prone wouldn’t be an issue.

OFFENSE
I don’t have dominant PG, because my offense would be similar to what 2003 Spurs or even those 08-10 Lakers teams played. Sharing the ball it the key here. Conley would do most of ballhandling and a lot of playmaking, but Duncan also would be playmaker from high post. Of course Kobe would get his share of touches too.

In this particular matchup I will try to attack Porter and Shaq the most, either by p&r (KB or Conley with Tim) or straight Duncan vs O’Neal postup or high post offense (Tim’s bank shot or playmaking). If AustinCarr decides to put Shaq on Rodman, then I will try to force switch by down screens. George is here mostly to space the floor and cuts, Rodman to set screens for Kobe and to get “Kobe assists” ;). I will try to avoid playing isolations with KB vs Pippen or Green. Dennis’ picks should be helpful here as well as Duncan’s passing from high post combined with Kobe’s off ball movement.

Generally I have high BB IQ guys (even Rodman!) and they will react accordingly to situation on the floor, but for example basic play of my team would start with Conley dribbling, then Duncan setting screen. If possible, then he rolls and scores, if not, then either he got the ball on high/low post (and tries to score alone or passes the ball to open teammate when double comes) or Conley passes to cutting/off screen Kobe (screen from Dennis on weak side). If Mike can’t make a pass to KB, then Tim gets the ball and passes to Bryant or back to cutting Conley. If nothing works, then ball goes to Kobe and he tries to create with screens from Rodman or Duncan. And if that also doesn’t work, then Rodman grabs offensive rebound ;)

When bench comes then role of Duncan or Kobe increases as never both of them would sit at the same time. Also for a couple of minutes (not long, max 2) in each half I might play two towers (Duncan and Tyson) if Dennis would have foul trouble or small ball (Ariza and George as forwards). Actually I would use 2nd option more often, because that would force AustinCarr to put Shaq on Duncan, and thus my p&r would be better and at the same time in the paint defense of my opponent would be weaker as Shaq wouldn’t be able to leave Tim in midrange area.

Also anytime Kerr and Barry (both VERY bad defenders, outside of top 300 according to DRAPM) are on the floor, they will be constantly attacked by Kobe and Conley. Bryant will have green light to play isolations and Mike will even get occasionally postup play vs Kerr.

Lastly, if we cumulate our players’ stats form chosen season, then we both have similar amount of FGA (89.8 and 89.7), but my team has on average more points: 122.6 vs 119.1. My team is also better in foul drawing (despite that opposing squad having Shaq!): 38.1 FTA vs 28.3. That's actually pretty significant difference and foul trouble might be issue for my opponent. As well as free throw shooting, because his team shots just 69.3% from the line, while mine 76.9%.

DEFENSE

My team doesn’t have weak links on defense. No matter if we go by reputation or by stats all of them were at least above average defenders in picked seasons (even Kobe was positive according to DRPM) and Duncan has case as GOAT defender. My team also have 2 players, who are among the best defenders Shaq faced.

Tim would be primary defender on O’Neal and I have detailed stats how they were doing vs each other from 2001 playoffs. Of course it’s not the year we picked our players from, but still very close and I think it gives us valuable information. So Shaq averaged just 0.92 ppp (that includes 0.57 on postups!) when he was defended by Duncan (and Tim vs O'Neal 1.15). Of course I’m not expecting him to hold Shaq to so low efficiency in this matchup, these numbers are here just to show, that Duncan was very good individual defender even vs so great in the paint scorer as O’Neal.

Besides my team has another player, who showed he is able to limit Lakers center. 1996 ECF are well known, but even later Dennis did great job, for example look at this: in 2nd half vs Rodman Shaq had 0 pts (0/3 FGA): ;t=25s

Again, I’m not saying he will shut him down, but I have 2 bigs, who are capable of playing effective defense vs Shaq (and Tyson on the bench if starters would be in foul trouble), and very good perimeter defenders, who are capable of providing help/double or deny entry pass.

Defensive matchups:
Duncan vs Shaq
Rodman vs Rasheed
George vs Pippen
Kobe vs Green
Conley vs Porter
+ Pressey who is capable of defending anyone from PG to SF, Ariza who can guard every forward and Tyson as emergency vs Shaq. George (or Ariza) would be primary help defender (mostly doubling Shaq), as Pippen isn’t a threat from 3p land. Rodman might try to provoke Rasheed (maybe officials would call technical on Wallace ;]) just like he provoked Brickowski and Kemp in 1996 finals. Besides he was excellent in drawing offensive fouls. In case of Porter being hot I will give more minutes to Pressey.

Lastly, I think my team is much better on the glass, both offensive end defensive. Going back to our teams' cumulative stats from chosen season, I have 61.8 (44.8 DRB, 16.9 ORB) to 50.5 (37.0, 13.6) rebounding advantage. Of course I don’t expect these numbers to happen in our matchups, but they show how better my team is in this area and who wins the glass, then usually he wins the game ;) Anyway, good luck AustinCarr!

TL;DR
my team's advantages:
- better foul drawing
- better FT%
- more ppp (higher efficiency)
- huge advantage in rebounds
- no weak links on defense
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#6 » by ardee » Sun Jun 4, 2017 7:08 pm

The real question here is how fast does Rodman get Rasheed ejected.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#7 » by AustinCarr61 » Sun Jun 4, 2017 9:01 pm

lorak wrote:Duncan will be my center, when in the year picked he played more minutes as PF (according to b-r 56%-44% splits), so I’m not sure if that will be a problem for some of you guys. That’s why I want to point out that Tim was no doubt able to play C in 2003 and did it on as good level as PF


I played 2003 Duncan at C the last time we did this - I don't see this as an issue.

lorak wrote:In this particular matchup I will try to attack Porter and Shaq the most, either by p&r (KB or Conley with Tim) or straight Duncan vs O’Neal postup or high post offense (Tim’s bank shot or playmaking). If AustinCarr decides to put Shaq on Rodman, then I will try to force switch by down screens. George is here mostly to space the floor and cuts, Rodman to set screens for Kobe and to get “Kobe assists” ;). I will try to avoid playing isolations with KB vs Pippen or Green. Dennis’ picks should be helpful here as well as Duncan’s passing from high post combined with Kobe’s off ball movement.


Not sure why attacking Porter is a good idea; over-the-hill Terry Porter had a 1.81 DRAPM in 2000; the prime version was obviously much better than that, particularly here when he doesn't have to have a massive offensive primacy. And implying that getting Shaq off Rodman is simple as a down screen is a gross over-simplification; and honestly I don't fear Duncan taking mid-range looks - he's not exactly Dirk even on the bank.

And while I'd like to think that Kobe could avoid isolations, let's remember who we are talking about! I will admit that the Kobe assist to Rodman is a concern though :D

lorak wrote:When bench comes then role of Duncan or Kobe increases as never both of them would sit at the same time. Also for a couple of minutes (not long, max 2) in each half I might play two towers (Duncan and Tyson) if Dennis would have foul trouble or small ball (Ariza and George as forwards). Actually I would use 2nd option more often, because that would force AustinCarr to put Shaq on Duncan, and thus my p&r would be better and at the same time in the paint defense of my opponent would be weaker as Shaq wouldn’t be able to leave Tim in midrange area.


Ariza/George versus Wallace or Oakley would get brutalised in the post/on the glass respectively; can't see that working well. Twin towers makes more sense but as stated previously I like the Chandler/Shaq matchup a LOT.

lorak wrote:Also anytime Kerr and Barry (both VERY bad defenders, outside of top 300 according to DRAPM) are on the floor, they will be constantly attacked by Kobe and Conley. Bryant will have green light to play isolations and Mike will even get occasionally postup play vs Kerr.


I genuinuely don't remember Barry as a bad defender by the eye test, but DRAPM bears it out for the years in question. However, I don't believe that the older Spurs version (who was a 2.06 DRAPM at peak and overall a positive across those years) was a better athlete or a much smarter player - remember he was a player's son and high IQ. Rather, I think it was a case of him being put in a position to succeed with other good defenders around him - which he will have on my team.

Kerr's defense was pretty awful but I'll ensure he always plays with Green and Pippen, and he'll guard Ariza as stated above. If lorak wants to isolate or post up Lakers Ariza, he's free to do so - but I can imagine Kobe would be looking daggers at the coach in that case :wink:

lorak wrote:Lastly, if we cumulate our players’ stats form chosen season, then we both have similar amount of FGA (89.8 and 89.7), but my team has on average more points: 122.6 vs 119.1. My team is also better in foul drawing (despite that opposing squad having Shaq!): 38.1 FTA vs 28.3. That's actually pretty significant difference and foul trouble might be issue for my opponent. As well as free throw shooting, because his team shots just 69.3% from the line, while mine 76.9%.


This foul drawing doesn't appear to be weighted for actual minutes played; I'm using Barry and Kerr (real life backup ups), you've got starters, who obviously are going to score more and draw more fouls as they are playing far more minutes IRL; here they will be playing much less. Obviously we do shoot FTs poorly - if Shaq hit his FTs this matchup would be over already.

lorak wrote:Tim would be primary defender on O’Neal and I have detailed stats how they were doing vs each other from 2001 playoffs. Of course it’s not the year we picked our players from, but still very close and I think it gives us valuable information. So Shaq averaged just 0.92 ppp (that includes 0.57 on postups!) when he was defended by Duncan (and Tim vs O'Neal 1.15). Of course I’m not expecting him to hold Shaq to so low efficiency in this matchup, these numbers are here just to show, that Duncan was very good individual defender even vs so great in the paint scorer as O’Neal.


I'm curious as to the source on these stats - could you post it? If it is original research then no worries, but I'm curious as to why Pop would not have gone to that matchup more if it was so successful considering Shaq was pretty successful in that sweep - perhaps he was worried about TD picking up fouls and losing his offense from the floor? Or getting worn down physically by the constant physicality? Might be a concern for lorak too...

lorak wrote:Besides my team has another player, who showed he is able to limit Lakers center. 1996 ECF are well known, but even later Dennis did great job, for example look at this: in 2nd half vs Rodman Shaq had 0 pts (0/3 FGA)


As alluded to in my write up, this was Orlando Shaq, who while athletic was a far less savvy player. If Rodman is a primary defender I like my chances; but as a change of pace I admit he would probably be effective.

lorak wrote:Lastly, I think my team is much better on the glass, both offensive end defensive. Going back to our teams' cumulative stats from chosen season, I have 61.8 (44.8 DRB, 16.9 ORB) to 50.5 (37.0, 13.6) rebounding advantage. Of course I don’t expect these numbers to happen in our matchups, but they show how better my team is in this area


Rasheed is going to pull Rodman away from the defensive glass, but I was probably a bit optimistic in my write-up - on looking at the numbers rebounding is an edge for lorak's team. That's what you get with Rodman (everyone else is basically a wash); it's up to the judges to determine whether this outweighs his lack of offensive, deleterious spacing effects and attitude concerns.

I've got a real fight on my hands here - lorak has built a fine team around two players I love (anytime Tim and later Kobe) and has put his case very well. I leave the final word to him; looking forwards to hearing other's thoughts on the matchup!
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#8 » by AustinCarr61 » Sun Jun 4, 2017 9:03 pm

ardee wrote:The real question here is how fast does Rodman get Rasheed ejected.


Responses like this are why I invested my earliest backup pick and lots of my backup FGAs in a Power Forward :lol:
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#9 » by ardee » Sun Jun 4, 2017 9:07 pm

AustinCarr61 wrote:
ardee wrote:The real question here is how fast does Rodman get Rasheed ejected.


Responses like this are why I invested my earliest backup pick and lots of my backup FGAs in a Power Forward :lol:


:lol:

For real though, it would be hilarious. The most annoying player ever to play against, and the most easily set off player...
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#10 » by ElGee » Mon Jun 5, 2017 12:57 am

More so than last time, the posters really applied team-building concepts. The two things I love about these are the team-building philosophies that the discussion forces (as well as how some individuals fit into that so well, making us rethink their value) and fantasy matchups like Rodman-Wallace and Kobe-Pippen. I'll be blunt -- I've always thought Jordan and Kobe would be slowed down by Pippen after reading Playing For Keeps. Does that mean Kobe struggles like the 04 Finals? Not really, but knocking elite guys off their pedestal will erode a point or two (maybe more) of net efficiency from a team in a matchup.

Organizing my thoughts on this matchup: I like what both coaches are selling. First for Lorak. Kobe/TD reminds me a bit of Kobe-Shaq in terms of having inside-outside iso options. But it's not automatically Kobe-Gasol and the fluidity of the 08 Laker offense (with a high ceiling when they played a stretch 4). Interestingly, Ariza can be the 3 again alongside a kind of super Derek Fisher (Conley -- great pick IMO) and 2012 George is similar in make up too. I'll even buy Rodman on a team spearheaded by Kobe because of the offensive rebounding that comes from scattering the D along with his great extra-pass skill. With all that said, I don't see this as a super high ceiling team on offense. But that's OK because they have defensive chops.

In this matchup, they go against a mobile Shaq protecting the rim, an insanely long Sheed and Pippen to stick Kobe. I'm lower on Tim Duncan's offense (mostly because of my anti-isolationism) than most, but he did have good games against Shaq. (Although some of them Shaq had foul trouble and I can't remember how much Duncan caused that -- just know that Duncan will still probably do Duncan things.) But again, I see the combination of the backline and Pippen's rim defense as being a bit of a problem.

On the flip side, I think this is a well-built Shaq-centric/triangle team. The players all play well with space, Porter and Green shoot well (and I love the ability to flip matchups by bringing in Barry and Kerry for spot minutes). Porter/Pippen are kind of perfect complements to Shaq in that they handle and create (and in this case play well in the TPO), but neither needs to do their damage via isolation. I'm also giving thought to the idea that Pip would be a "better" shooter in this era/role because he wouldn't spend time on his 17-23 foot shot but would just shoot the crap out of the 3. This gets very philosophical, so I won't give him the credit, but being so intimate with his game I do think he could be around 35% on spot ups. (He was around 34% for a few years in Portland.)

It is interesting than Rodman/Duncan are there, two guys who used their weight well against Shaq. Still, I do think fouls are in play here, as Rodman usually had Longley to lean on Shaq for large stretches. I love Tyson Chandler more than most, but he's not the type to do well against Shaq. God Shaq is such a force he just completely warps the game is dominating all my thoughts. Good news for Lorak is that I don't think we're in video-game ceiling with this team -- that starting lineup feels like a reasonable NBA starting lineup for a title team -- so while I don't think he'll slow it down too much, I'm not sure how overwhelmed he'll be other than the foul thing.

I also need to think about how Pressey plays into all this -- he was underrated in his day. I'll think on this and interested to hear more...
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#11 » by lorak » Mon Jun 5, 2017 9:16 am

- Will Shaq foul out my team? Well, we can assume that, but then I don’t see how that wouldn’t apply to any team in this tournament. I mean, we all have 8 men rotation, so we have to be reasonable with that fouls thing here. Besides really no one has more than 3 players, who are capable of defending Shaq, some teams even have just one. And my squad has guys, who have good history with their defense vs Shaq. Even Tyson, who at first glance doesn’t look like someone, who can limit O’Neal, in reality has surprisingly good track record. Look at the numbers:

From 2002 to 2009 they met 14 times and Shaq averaged just 15.4 PPG (27.6 MPG - and Tyson 26.9) on 49.1% FG%. If we look only at games, when O'Neal was in LAL (5 such meetings), then he had 16 PPG on 44.8% FG%.

Yes, Tyson probably didn’t defend him all the time (I guess in Chicago Eddy Curry was Shaq stopper), but no matter what other bigs were around him, if he played in Chicago or NO, Shaq has history of playing below his normal level, so looks like Tyson did something right.

- Shaq vs Duncan 2001 numbers are from my own research. Especially G1 is interesting, because that’s when Duncan was the most of the time on O’Neal. In first half Robinson was primary defender on Shaq and he scored 17 points on 8/12 FG, so in 2nd half Pop changed defense and put Tim on Lakers center, who was just 3 of 10 in last two quarters:



0:20 - Shaq can't move Tim, so he attempts fadeaway shot
0:35 - again Duncan is too strong and Shaq is forced to difficult shot
1:20 - Shaq isn't able to come closer to the basket
2:00 - the same story
2:20 - even entry pass to Shaq isn't easy when Tim defends him
2:40 - another miss, because he can't outmuscle Duncan
2:50 - Shaq commits offensive foul trying to postup Tim

These are not some cherry picked plays to prove the point, but literally all possessions from 2nd half, when Duncan was defending O’Neal. Overall in this game Shaq scored 0.73 ppp vs Tim and 1.00 in next three. Why Pop didn't use him more that way if he did so good job? I don't know, but maybe because Spurs 2nd best scorer (Derek Anderson) was out and Tim had to carry more on offense than usually? But in our matchup that wouldn't be an issue as Duncan isn't even my 1st option (obviously Kobe is) and generally my team is more balanced than 2001 Spurs, so I can use more Tim's energy on defense.

- Yes, Paul George in 2012 played most of the time as SG, because Granger was SF. But does it mean he wasn’t able to play SF? I don’t think so, because he had both athletic abilities and skills to do it.

- By attacking Porter I mean it’s easier to play p&r vs him, than vs Pippen or Green. I’m not deny he was at least ok defender, but he is the weakest link on your perimeter S5, while Conley is excellent p&r player, so IMO it makes sense to attack Porter and Shaq.

- Rodman will set a lot of picks, so if Shaq is on him, then it means either open looks for Kobe and my other perimeter players, or open lane if O’Neal will go after Rodman to around 3p line. Dennis would also generally move a lot around the court, so either Shaq will follow him and fatigue will be a factor or 3s will be called often ;)

- Kerr on Ariza is good move and of course I wouldn’t isolate/postup Trevor. However when Kerr is in and as I assume Oakley, then I would play my small ball (and only when Oakley is a PF, when both Rasheed and Shaq are on the floor, then no small ball from me). I feel comfortable with Ariza/George vs Oakley, as Charles wasn’t postup threat and my long forwards can deal with his midrange jumper. His rebounding would be a concern, but I can live with that several minutes having Tim as center. Besides my small ball would create more problems for AustinCarr, as Kerr would be forced to defend someone else than Ariza or Oakley would be on one of my perimeter players – so either way it’s not good for my opponent defense.

- I see that Barry would play a lot of minutes, so I will also try to exploit his weak defense as much as possible.

-
This foul drawing doesn't appear to be weighted for actual minutes played; I'm using Barry and Kerr (real life backup ups), you've got starters, who obviously are going to score more and draw more fouls as they are playing far more minutes IRL;


Actually both our teams have similar total minutes played in real life: you 257.7, me 259.6. So I think my team ability to draw fouls will be issue for you here (my team has 38.1 FTA, yours 28.3 despite having Shaq, I know, I repeat myself, but you have so good team, that I have to emphasize my advantages ;))

- I think my team has mental advantage too. 1996 Rodman really showed what he can do, when Brickowski (and to some extent Kemp) lost his mind. Here we have Rasheed, who was easy to lost his cool and Pippen, who was always psychologically not too strong (he struggled not only vs Bad Boys but also half decade later, when was more matured, but still couldn't accept, that Kukoc will take last shot), so how he would act vs Dennis and such competitor and trash talker like Kobe?
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#12 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jun 5, 2017 3:29 pm

Toughest matchup for me to call, I will try to get a vote in and hopefully other judges' writeups will clarify some areas too.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#13 » by BasketballFan7 » Mon Jun 5, 2017 4:10 pm

Peak Shaq is so hard to vote against in these games, and I love Lorak's team. I am shocked it was in the bottom half of the rankings sent in that helped create the seedlings. I think I had his team in my top 3-5.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#14 » by drza » Tue Jun 6, 2017 3:16 am

This is a difficult match-up, but an interesting one. These are two teams that both feel like almost realistic teams, and that have a distinct era: the late 90s/early 2000s. In another thread it was a battle between a 70s style team and a modern team, and the style made the fight. This one is different, in that neither team is optimized for the most modern NBA...instead, they both seem built for the generation that just passed. Thus, instead of style, it would be all about match-ups and execution.

It is a real role reversal to have Duncan play with Kobe, against a more balanced team built around Shaq. It's a bizarro reversal of what we saw in real life, as Shaq's team looks a lot like a Spurs-type squad that could have easily been built around Duncan. And obviously, as someone already pointed out, Lorak's squad has a very Lakers feel to it. The fun part of the reversal, is, we never got to see what Duncan or Shaq would look like in each others' shoes.

Shaq always did his best work next to elite scoring guards that could create their own scoring opportunities at volume. From Penny to Kobe to Wade. Can Pippen carry enough of a scoring torch to play that role next to him? Not sure, but in this example it's not a true 2-man team because Pippen, Sheed and even Porter can be second scoring options on a given night. Thus, more like Duncan's teams in real life AustinCarr's squad looks likely to produce more equal opportunity around the big man. Now, Shaq is an offensive anchor to put Duncan to shame, which means that the others should have room to operate. But, in the halfcourt in the fourth quarter, when Shaq's free throw shooting and post nature could be more effectively defended, would PIppen or Porter be able to create for themselves/teammates to the level that Kobe or Wade did? I don't see that. Instead, I see a team that would be primarily shooters around Shaq, with half-court perimeter offense generation as a bit of a weakness when Shaq wasn't leading the way.

Defensively, they're also set up to be strong against 2000s ball. Shaq is huge and owns the paint, though he wasn't going to venture all that far out of it for help purposes. Wallace, Pippen and Green (even Porter) would be on the continuum for best 1-on-1 defenders. Sheed, in particular, wreaked havoc on his 1-on-1 match-up and Pippen is famous for locking perimeter players. I don't know what this unit would look like against an offense like the 2017 Warriors, but they aren't the opponent here.

Instead, they'll have to face a team that would attack in a method like a BIzarro 2000 Lakers squad. Interestingly, as ElGee pointed out, NOT a late 2000s (e.g. 2009, 2010) team, despite the fact that Kobe would be the main scoring option. Those later Kobe Lakers relied strongly on the passing and versatility of the Gasol/Odom frontline to define themselves. Duncan is a plus passer, but no combination of Duncan/Rodman or Duncan/Chandler replicates that level of offense generation threat like the late 2000s Lakers. No, instead, this unit feels much more like a concentrated 2- or 3- man offense with Kobe as the big gun, Duncan as a secondary scoring threat from the post, and Conley as a third pole that is an underrated scoring threat himself. Rodman and Chandler give you nothing, really, as scorers and would instead be offensive rebound/garbage threats only. George and Ariza would be athletic combo forward/swing types utilized a bit like 3 & D guys. Pressey could be 3 and D, but could also generate some team offense in the second unit.

Defensively, Lorak's squad should shine in most situations. Duncan is a history-level defensive anchor, 96 Rodman was crazy about the boards (which some used to suggest that he over-went for, at the expense of his defense, but I've seen impact studies suggesting that this wasn't true). Chandler was at his defensive best that season, and a worthy third defensive big. George, Ariza and Pressey would be a tough defensive wing unit. Kobe ad Conley both have some 1-on-1 defensive ability as well. Feels like a very strong inside-out defense...again, against most teams.

This match-up is going to come down, in large part, to the Diesel and Duncan match-up. And the information Lorak provided has been important, because my impression in memory was that nobody could do anything with Shaq at that point in his career. That he was fouling out entire frontlines, and getting exactly what he wanted. The 01 Finals against Mutombo do have the mental image of Shaq elbowing Deke in the face while scoring over him, much the way that 95 WCF have the mental image of Hakeem juking Robinson. AustinCarr's team really relies upon Shaq to be able to do that in order for their team to work. Could he do it to Duncan?

My feeling is that there would be a foul trouble game or two from Duncan. But that he would also be able to put pressure on Shaq at the other end. Meanwhile, could Kobe and Conley create enough offense to bridge the gap, even over the solid supporting shooters around Shaq plus Pip?

Would Pippen be able to hound Kobe into an inefficient enough volume effort that he hurts the team? I'm not sure that he could. Pippen was often some combo of longer, quicker, and/or more explosive than everyone that he was able to lock up. Kobe wasn't as explosive in 2008 as he was in 2001, but he was still at least Pippen's size, at least as quick, similarly explosive and plus...he would have been the most skilled wing scorer that Pippen ever faced in a game (in this world, he wouldn't have been cutting his teeth on Jordan in practice). I can see Pippen making Kobe work, but by 2008 Kobe was rarely slowed by any 1-on-1 defender, it was more about defensive systems and anchors. Shaq could keep him from getting to the rim, and Sheed would be free to help off of Rodman but that would also lead to lots of offensive rebounds, so..

This one just isn't jumping out as an obvious answer, to me. Right now, when I look at these teams, I feel like AustinCarr is depending on Shaq to be his knockout hook, and his entire team rides on that. Lorak, though, built his team with three strong interior defenders, one of which was also a strong scoring option, that I don't think Shaq could just punk. And much like how Evander Holyfield, once he discovered that he could take Mike Tyson's punch, was able to wear him down...I kind of feel like Lorak's squad would do the same here.

With the same caveat as always about being willing to modify my vote if someone changes my mind, I'll go ahead and vote Lorak here.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#15 » by ElGee » Thu Jun 8, 2017 12:59 am

Very tough. I'm going to go out of the box to vote because otherwise I'm kind of stuck. I think Austin Carr has a slightly better team. Yet in this matchup, most of the key players are from the 90s or early 2000's period. As a result, I see a lot of HCA and some general slow prodding-ness that could take place (nothing out of the ordinary for Duncan/Shaq teams). I think this kind of style starts to play into the strengths of Lorak's team. I could be totally talked into changing, but,that, along with a Sheed ejection or two...

vote: Lorak
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#16 » by Statlanta » Thu Jun 8, 2017 9:50 pm

Bump for outside votes
The Greatest of All Time debate in basketball is essentially who has the greatest basketball resume of the player who has the best highlights instead of who is the best player
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs ECR1: (3) AustinCarr61 vs (6) lorak 

Post#17 » by penbeast0 » Fri Jun 9, 2017 12:15 am

If you were using rules and refs from before 2010, I might go with the Shaq built squad here, from before 2000 probably. But, in today's league, if you can keep Kobe from major ballhoggery, I think Lorak has more ball movement and more outside shooting and I do think that Duncan and Rodman and a helping defense will do as good a job on Shaq as it's possible to do. So, if I have to vote, I go Lorak here as well.
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