Post#42 » by kayess » Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:55 pm
I think it's ESSENTIAL that everyone:
- post their criteria, and
- indicate things that would change their mind, in general and on certain players
I'll do the top 18 first, 100 is hard. Criteria is: overall career value, leading to expected championships, based on all the things that go into impact (so "intangibles" like leadership, which would show somehow on the scoreboard, is accounted for here). So obviously, to change my mind in general, I need evidence of impact - +/- stats, on/off, primary sources on culture change/teammates playing harder, etc. Heavy context is appreciated, but don't just say "rotational weirdness" is the reason why Manu has > +/- than some stars: that's literally what RAPM tries to account for.
I do not heavily weigh PS (as basketball does not suddenly become a different game), other than if a skill-set weakness were exploited. Even then, I would look at circumstances (was it simply a bad match-up? A once-in-a-lifetime collection of talent? And so on). E.g. - the mailman's reliance on jump-shooting late in his career, but those were against the Bulls, and it's somewhat artificially induced because of the long grind of the season.
Gaps indicate tiers, meaning I can see arguments either way for anyone within tiers, but no arguments for guys in the tiers below them (at least, if using my criteria).
1. MJ
2. Kareem
3. Russell
4. LeBron
5. Shaq
6. Hakeem
7. Garnett
8. Duncan
9. Robinson
10. Wilt
11. Magic
12. Oscar
13. West
14. Kobe
15. Malone
16. Dr. J
17. Bird
18. Dirk
19. Barkley
So loosely:
tier 1: GOAT candidates - The myth of MJ is honestly ultra hard to overcome for me, but the top 3 can, and does change (was swayed to go with KAJ in the previous project thanks to TLAF, have Russell there sometimes, etc.) What would really do it for me is if someone looked at MJ's performances in "must-win" games to see if his invincibility in the playoffs is as we thought. I already know of one instance that I didn't before (down 0-2 to the Knicks, puts up a stinker and wins anyway), would love to see others.
LeBron's the train in the room, obviously. I think he's got a clear shot, but I am aware of my bias towards him/MJ and two-way bigs, so I will rank lower than real ranking to off-set this. His case is clear-cut: but how does it stack vs. the others?
tier 2: Shaq - honestly, I love this guy and want to put him in tier 1 (I think he has a case), but he's just more... flawed than those 4 are. Of course that doesn't matter if his actual impact footprint was on their level, but for now, this is a matter of feel and organization more than anything.
tier 3: 2-way bigs - any ranking here would make sense honestly. Hakeem gets the tiebreaker because circumstances **** him over the most.
tier 4: ATG guards, skewed towards O - +6-+7 guys on O, ~10 years of superstar impact. I am sure Magic is at the top of this tier, but not much beyond that. My view on Oscar has been heavily swayed by lorak's analysis of his impact on those early Bucks teams.
tier 5: Great PFs (and yes, that includes Bird) + Dr. J - Malone's incredible longevity and great adaptability gets the nod over the superior peak of everyone else here. Dr. J/Bird have the highest peaks imo, but are hurt by reduced longevity (if we're counting ABA here, Dr. J jumps into the next tier). Barkley suffers from a lack of D, and inconsistency.
Just like you forgot about HOFer George McGinnis on your list. It's a lot to sort out
