RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #8

[penbeast0]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. ????
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Go!

[Tesla]

1st Vote: Shaquille O'Neal
2nd Vote: Kobe Bryant

From here I feel like Shaq, Kobe, Hakeem, Bird can really go in any order, but can't see anyone else above them although at this point I am open to arguments for Mikan, KG, Dirk, both Malones, Oscar, West, Dr J.

Shaq to me has the best peak left from the strong candidates remaining. His weakness is his missed games and to some degree his personality. Nevertheless, Shaq had an epic run where the world felt he was unquestionably the best player in the game for 3 year stretch (most likely even more) and he proved it in not just fancy acronym statistics but actually by imposing himself on the court to will championship after championship. Outside of Kobe (and Phil) those teams were not very talented (outside of 00 arguably); yet, they dominated because of the sheer impact of two players - whom predominately Shaq was more responsible. What he did in the playoffs from 00-03 was second to none remaining (and perhaps second to no one in history) -- that alone slots him here over anyone left. He also prior to that was amazing from day 1 and after that has 4 great years which led to one more championship (he was perhaps one of best #2 ever there, forget the finals stats, everything leading up to the finals is way overlooked in that Miami run).

I will argue Kobe after Shaq gets in, but I will briefly give my input on him. In terms of putting his stamp on the league, winning, and overall legacy I don't believe he trails anyone at this point. For me, he could do wonders with any capable big man and by that I dont even mean a Shaq/Gasol, but anything between them and Kwame Brown would pretty much contend or strong pretend to some degree in Kobe's prime and it was long prime. He has more top 5 MVP finishes than anyone other than Kareem, thats ever not just left. Although its a bit of an arbitrary cut off, it is a testament of how long and how resilient his prime was in comparison to who is left over.

[THKNKG]

Not going to miss my vote this time, so (subject to change):

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Hakeem Olajuwon

Others I'm considering - Dirk, Oscar, DRob, Kobe, West, Bird, Shaq


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[Winsome Gerbil]

8) Bird
9) Shaq

I'll make the initial argument for Bird, but after all the pack of big men focus last time, I'll want to make Shaq's case, which I think has always previously been pretty clear. i'm a little nonplussed actually on that front, as he was clearly ahead of Hakeem and KG when he retired, and Hakeem obviously hasn't added anything since then, and KG's final 5 seasons shouldn't be adding much to any Top 10 player's legacy. Actually, I have KG well back as the least dominant of the grouping, and will be advancing Mailman, and possibly even Moses and Admiral over him. But first things first. Bird and Magic were always joined at the hip, Shaq came closest to separating them on greatness, but was sloppy enough to fall short I think. So those are my 8/9.

P.S. Once we reach Shaq and then Hakeem that is where I think it would have been more appropriate to have the Duncan conversation. All those guys are clustered.

[RCM88x]

Not going to miss my vote this time, so (subject to change):

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Hakeem Olajuwon

Others I'm considering - Dirk, Oscar, DRob, Kobe, West, Bird


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No Shaq?

[THKNKG]

Not going to miss my vote this time, so (subject to change):

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Hakeem Olajuwon

Others I'm considering - Dirk, Oscar, DRob, Kobe, West, Bird


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

No Shaq?

Edited. He's probably 3 on my list right now. Whoops


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[Joao Saraiva]

Wow. Didn't expect Magic to be selected higher than Hakeem and Shaq. I'm going to vote for those two... my formula tells me Shaq but I voted Hakeem 1st last thread.

Gotta think a bit more about it. But those two will have my vote!

[Jaivl]

Magic sneaks in with nearly no discussion lol, same as in 2014 IIRC.

[Outside]

Vote: Bird
Alternate: Hakeem

Next on my list are Shaq, Jerry West, and KG.

(Excerpted and edited from my post in the last thread, where I had Bird as my alternate.)

Bird had a tremendous will to win and is the most cold-blooded killer I've ever seen on the court. I look at his percentages and question how they can be that low because it seemed like the guy made every big shot. It was like there was nothing you could do to stop him or rattle him. The stories from opponents about how he'd tell you where he was going to shoot the ball and then do exactly that. He'd rip out your heart and dance on your grave. From his perspective, he was there to win, and that's what he was going to do.

Bird was a great shooter, great passer, and very good rebounder. His defense is much discussed, with some pointing to him being on all-defense teams three times and others pointing to his lack of quickness making him ineffective as an individual defender in space. I think the truth is somewhere in between, leaning toward him being an overall good defender. As others pointed out, he wasn't the quickest guy or a great leaper, but he had quick hands and very good size. He was also incredibly smart and used that to great effect defensively. You weren't going to anchor your defense around him, but he was an excellent complement to Parish and McHale.

Bird has three titles, three MVPs, and two finals MVPs. He comes up short in longevity compared to other candidates, but he had such an immediate impact, leading a team that was 29-53 the year before to a 61-21 record, and leading the team in points, rebounds, and steals and second in assists. He got better from there and had a peak that went from his rookie season through the 1987-88 season. He had productive seasons after that, but injuries diminished him from those peak seasons.

Hakeem gets my alternate vote over Shaq due to better defense, better overall offense, and being a more complete player. Shaq had the higher peak during the Lakers three-peat, but Hakeem had a longer peak and didn't tail off the way Shaq did. Shaq had more seasons but Hakeem played in more games and more minutes. Shaq also has the negatives of free-throw shooting and team disruption, while Hakeem was a model centerpiece.

[Winsome Gerbil]

Wow. Didn't expect Magic to be selected higher than Hakeem and Shaq. I'm going to vote for those two... my formula tells me Shaq but I voted Hakeem 1st last thread.

Gotta think a bit more about it. But those two will have my vote!

He's always been higher. I mean, as in always. This board would have been pioneering something new to flip things around.

[wojoaderge]

I'm reprising my first place vote selection from the last thread. Of all those remaining, Larry Bird is the player with the most seasons as the best player in the league and the most championships won as his team's clear first option. The only other player left who could possibly match him is my second choice . . . George Mikan. A little more on him later . . .

1 - Larry Bird
2 - George Mikan

[scrabbarista]

8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Larry Bird

It comes down to numbers between these two, and Shaq clearly has the advantage when we look at their entire careers. Bird wins on "intangibles," but those intangibles lead to more team success for Shaq than they did for Bird. Shaq played in six NBA Finals. That's half a career for many players. Even if we only count Shaq's Lakers, the two players' teams are still basically even.

To be honest, I think the gaps are bigger at this part of the list than they are higher up (and further down). My formula puts Shaq, Bird, Kobe, and Hakeem each at least 10% lower than the player above them. That's a significant number.

[Gibson22]

I don't like this project no more, I will explain why tomorrow

[trex_8063]

Magic sneaks in with nearly no discussion lol, same as in 2014 IIRC.

It's like magic, you might say .

Oh, and I'm back.
Thanks for covering for me penbeast0, I'll try to get right back up to speed on things.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Kevin Garnett
Alt: Shaquille O'Neal

Alright so the big thing that sticks out to me that i haven't spoken to about KG is the playoffs.
To what extent does his schtick no longer work in the playoffs?

Thing is, basically all of this stems from people talking about shooting efficiency as it's not like Garnett's team had a real track record of disappointing in the playoffs.

They got "upset" by the Shaq-Kobe Lakers twice, but those weren't real upsets.

In all honesty when I think of upsets and Garnett, I think of the '10 series against the Cavs when the Celtics won.

We have access to on/off numbers for KG in the playoffs. They look fantastic. I wouldn't want to base my opinion of KG solely on this or the lack of true disappointing upsets, but if I'm going to basically ignore the regular season for a player, I'd like to see some big things telling us he was fundamentally different in the playoffs.

None of this means I just stick to my guns here though. Shaq, and especially Hakeem, were known for upping their game in the playoffs. A good argument along those lines might be able to persuade me.

Though as I say this, Shaq remains tricky because of his attitude. Hakeem though, though he's currently below the other two on my list, is really tough to dismiss.

Also someone asked why people didn't make KG arguments like this at the #1 spot, there's a couple things here:

1) Russell, Jordan, and LeBron have pretty up & shut cases over KG. Yes KG has a longevity edge you could always argue, but I don't see KG's best matching those other guys. Kareem & Duncan though I could make arguments for KG over. Why don't I?

2) Well, obviously I've spent a lot of time arguing KG over Duncan in the past. Why not this time? Because I don't feel like it. It's tiring howling against the storm. When I did it before I did so because I felt like it needed to happen. It was something that had to be pushed to front of everyone's attention at a time when people were focused. Now that I've done it, the situation changes.

Why vs Duncan but not Kareem when I did it? Well, I had Kareem above KG on my list so that's the short answer. A more informative answer is that I'd reached a point where the KG>Duncan arguments in my head were something I could not rebut, so that's what I put out there.

[Senior]

Shaq vs Hakeem is close enough that it comes down to preference. Similar level 1/3 year peaks, similar playoff peaks, both doing as much for their team, similar accolades. Shaq has better team success but he also had better support (guy had Penny/Kobe/Wade for 9/12 years from 95-06). Hakeem's defense kills Shaq's and the awards/stats show that: 6 1st All-D teams/5 2nd + 2 DPOY for Hakeem vs 3 2nd All-D for Shaq. Shaq's offense is better, although the degree to which it's better is debatable.

I mentioned that it comes down to preference, and I've been favoring Hakeem so far. When you're looking at making title runs, your team must be prepared to deal with a variety of teams, all with their own set of strengths/weaknesses. Quality teams exert their talent in a variety of ways, so it's paramount to have the ability to match up against a wide range of tactics those high-level teams can use.

Shaq, for all his offensive domination, had more avenues that teams could attack him from partly because of his weaker defense. Jazz went 8-1 vs LA in 97/98, the 04 Pistons murdered LA's defense, and even in title runs Portland and Sacramento gave LA's defense trouble. Looking at box-score stats and concluding that Shaq was near-flawless in the playoffs ignores defense entirely. Again, in those 97/98/04 elimination series he wasn't getting much offensive support, but he's part of the hole his team has dug.

Hakeem, on the other hand, wasn't exploitable defensively. His Rockets matched up against every other contender well from 93-95 except Seattle - and even then, their 1993 series went 7 games and ended with an OT loss.

In the end, if I need a guy to lead my team to the title, I'll take the guy with significantly less holes in their game, even if the other guy has a higher offensive ceiling. To make up for the defensive liabilities Shaq brings, he would have to be playing close to his offensive ceiling every game...and even then I don't think it's enough. Hakeem's ability to do basically everything really well is an ace in the hole for playoff runs because there's an enormous range of tactics, players, and abilities playoff teams have. The more areas you can cover, the better prepared your team will be - both in terms of initial matchups and any further adjustments.

[penbeast0]

My default vote is still George Mikan. Yes, he played in a smaller, appreciably weaker NBA without the great black stars of his day. However, he dominated his league in a way that no one left, not even Shaq, matches. I am willing to switch my vote if (a) someone does a good analysis of his impact v. that of Shaq/Hakeem or (b) someone convinces me that Bird/Kobe/other deserves to be in ahead of Shaq/Hakeem. It's a bit of a cheat since I know he has no support, but I want him to be in the conversation. I did a post once comparing him to prime Jordan by (simple version) adjusting his stats for pace and league norms and he scored nearly as much (within 2 points), dominated rebounding (of course), had similar assists, and with his high foul draw, good FT shooting, and the low average fg% of his era, was more efficient than Jordan relative to league as well. Add to that what contemporaries say about his defensive impact (also above Jordan) and you have a truly dominant player. Of course, then you have to discount for his era . . . figure the talent of about 1 division in Jordan's day, and even less today where the league has greatly expanded it's talent base but compared to other centers, even in Mikan's day, if you were close to 7 foot tall, you at least considered a basketball career so the talent differential is less than at other positions.

Alternate: Hakeem. I used to rate Shaq above Hakeem, but his later years and learning more about his impact on his team cultures, I have edged Hakeem back by a hair's breadth. Shaq is more dominant, has more warping impact, and his defense has been underrated, but Hakeem has the horizontal defensive game that impact stats has shown to be so valuable, his playoff impact improves more than anyone else in my top 20 (maybe Jerry West?), he hits his FTs more down the stretch, and his early whining in Houston has possibly faded in my memory. I am looking forward to Shaq v. Hakeem and Hakeem v. Bird as well as hopefully some degree of real looks at Mikan rather than just an automatic dismissal because he is before any of our time.

Oh, and welcome back Trex!

[2klegend]

Top 7 is what I expected so still no surprised. #8 should be nothing less of surprise.

This time, I'm going to change thing a little bit and introduce the concept of Final run performance from the 3 candidates that deserve to be at #8. I calculates them based on the simple formula..

FP Total = (avgPER*PER_STD)+(avgTS%*TS_STD)+(avgWS48*WS48_STD)+(avgOBPM*OBPM_STD)+(avgDBPM*DBPM_STD).

First I need to know the league leader average from 1960-2016 from these statistical categories (PER, TS%, WS48, OBPM, DBPM). Then assign each PT with 30 to get my standard deviation for each. That is, PER_STD, TS_STD, WS48_STD, etc.

Code: Select all

                       PER      TS%     WS48    OBPM    DBPM
LG Avg                 28.365   0.618   0.269   7.415   5.379
PT Value               30       30      30      30      30
Standard Deviation     1.06     48.51   111.38  4.05    5.58

Now, these are the raw data for each of my 3 candidates (Shaq, Bird, Hakeem) from their respective Final Run in their prime.

Code: Select all

    Season    PER       TS%      WS/48    OBPM     DBPM     BPM
   1994-95    26.10     0.60     0.18     2.30     2.80     5.10
   1999-00    30.50     0.56     0.22     4.50     2.80     7.20
   2000-01    28.70     0.56     0.26     5.70     1.50     7.20
   2001-02    28.30     0.57     0.24     3.60     2.60     6.20
   2003-04    24.80     0.57     0.20     2.40     4.00     6.40
Shaq          27.68     0.57     0.22     3.70     2.74     6.42
   1980-81    21.80     0.53     0.20     3.80     4.50     8.30
   1983-84    26.30     0.61     0.24     6.30     3.90     10.20
   1984-85    20.90     0.54     0.16     3.40     2.30     5.70
   1985-86    23.90     0.62     0.26     7.90     2.40     10.30
   1986-87    21.80     0.58     0.15     2.60     3.20     5.80
Bird          22.94     0.57     0.20     4.80     3.26     8.06
   1985-86    25.60     0.57     0.23     4.60     2.80     7.40
   1993-94    27.70     0.57     0.21     3.30     5.70     9.10
   1994-95    26.70     0.56     0.14     1.00     4.30     5.30
Hakeem        26.67     0.56     0.19     2.97     4.27     7.27

Which brought me to get their average from these categories...

Code: Select all

        PER       TS%      WS/48    OBPM     DBPM     BPM
Shaq    27.68     0.57     0.22     3.70     2.74     6.42
Bird    22.94     0.57     0.20     4.80     3.26     8.06
Hakeem  26.67     0.56     0.19     2.97     4.27     7.27

FP Total = (avgPER*PER_STD)+(avgTS%*TS_STD)+(avgWS48*WS48_STD)+(avgOBPM*OBPM_STD)+(avgDBPM*DBPM_STD).

Code: Select all

           FP Total
 Hakeem    113.00
 Bird      112.04
 Shaq      111.72

Conclusion: It appears all 3 performed extremely close at their dominant prime. If I have to choose one, I would go with Shaq because '04 Final Run may screw his stat. He was partially in his prime then. But Hakeem is slightly above. This final performance run in addition to their individual accolades and longevity consideration, I have to go with Shaq as my choice to be consistent with my GOAT projection.

1st Pick: Shaq
2nd Pick: Bird

[JordansBulls]

Code: Select all

 
              HCA(50+)/non-50           
Shaq:         11-2 / 12-2       
Olajuwon:     4-0 / 5-2           
Bird:         10-6 / 14-1         
Tmac:         0-2 / 0-0           
Kobe:         18-2 / 7-0         
Wade:         3-2/ 13-0           



Code: Select all

 vs 50 win teams/non-50 win teams
Garnett:   3-2  (60%) /6-0 (100%)
Dirk:      6-2 (75%)  /2-1 (67%)
Malone:    4-4 (50%)  /8-2 (80%)
Barkley:   2-1 (67%)  /8-1 (89%)


Hakeem with 1 MVP, 2 Finals MVP's, 1 DPOY, 2 Titles
Bird with 3 MVP's, 2 Finals MVP's, 3 Titles
Kobe with 1 MVP, 2 Finals MVP's, 5 Titles
Shaq with 1 MVP, 3 Finals MVP's, 4 Titles
Dirk with 1 MVP, 1 Finals MVP, 1 Title
Garnett with 1 MVP, 1 DPOY, 1 Title

1st Vote: Kobe Bryant
2nd Vote: Shaquille O'neal

[Joao Saraiva]

Shaq vs Bird comparison (since Bird is getting a ton of votes)

According to my formula here is how they look:

All time list (post 1980 only included, I've been adding players from 60s and 70s but haven't put them in the list yet as I'm doing it along with the project)
4.Shaquille O'Neal 345,8668523
5. Hakeem Olajuwon 325,6012185
6. Magic Johnson 323,0235678
7. Karl Malone 320,6882685
8. Larry Bird 313,4335783

Prime (5 best years)
3. Shaquille O'Neal - 95, 99, 00, 01, 02 1362,551667
4. Hakeem Olajuwon - 86, 88, 93, 94, 95 1347,769872
5. Larry Bird - 84, 85, 86, 87, 88 1334,321818

Peak
3. Shaquille O'Neal 2000 303,8
4. Tim Duncan - 2003 294,39
5. Magic Johnson - 1987 284,35
6. Hakeem Olajuwon - 1994 283,07
7. Larry Bird - 1986 280,23

Longevity:
4. Shaquille O'Neal 3678,205427
5. Hakeem Olajuwon 3555,365405
6. Michael Jordan 3437,746347
7. Dirk Nowitzki 3401,52993
8. Kevin Garnett 3316,776538
9. Kobe Bryant 3286,03919
10. LeBron James 3483,452121
11. Charles Barkley 3123,024617
12. Magic Johnson 3049,806713
13. David Robinson 2819,961713
14. Larry Bird 2765,949679

I think it's really hard to ignore Shaq toping Bird at all lists. The longevity gap is tremendous between them!



As offensive players:
Bird definitely has an advantage with his playmaking and ball movement. But what else?

People can talk about spacing, but Shaq's presence down low actually provided a ton of space for shooters to operate. The gravity effect is real. If you saw Shaq playing, you'd know this.

Shaq was a much more efficient scorer, and much more consistent than Larry Bird in playoff time.

Shaq also provided good/great rebounding.

I think the offensive gap is pretty clear going Shaq's way. And that's saying something. Larry Bird was an exceptional offensive player, but better than Shaq?!

On defense:
Larry Bird was a smart player, and a very good team defender. But he had some limitations, like his lateral quickness.

Shaq was a good rim protector, and in his best days an excellent one. At their best, I'd say peak/prime Shaq has a clear advantage over Bird on the defensive side of the floor.

Sure Shaq had some problems with PnR defense, but it's not like he was a negative despite that. Far from it.

When thinking about it, Hakeem might come as a close 3rd on offense, but he actually crushes the other two on defense.

My formula is a bit more offensive oriented, and Hakeem still tops Bird in every regard.

I think I'm voting for Hakeem once again, and to be honest I don't see how Larry Bird can be ahead of these guys.

While I can understand Magic above these guys because of playoff consistency and GOAT offensive impact, the same doesn't apply to Larry, who had 3/4 runs at top level in the playoff on his entire career (I mean, he had other good runs but we're talking about top 10 players here). Shaq and Hakeem easily top that!