RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11

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RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:12 am

2017 List
1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. ?????

OK, go!
Should be a close race between Garnett and Kobe from the looks of prior threads. I realize people have strong feelings regarding this particular match-up, but KEEP IT RESPECTFUL guys. I'm not going to tolerate much at all along the lines of "would be joke if....", "lol at [insert opinion you disagree with]", or similar derogatory statements. Everyone is warned; you do it, you will take a [forced] time-out. Period.


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#2 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:19 am

VOTE: George Mikan. Yes, he played in a smaller, appreciably weaker NBA without the great black stars of his day. However, he dominated his league in a way that no one left, not even Shaq, matches. I am willing to switch my vote if (a) someone does a good analysis of his impact v. that of Shaq/Hakeem or (b) someone convinces me that Bird/Kobe/other deserves to be in ahead of Shaq/Hakeem. It's a bit of a cheat since I know he has no support, but I want him to be in the conversation. He was considered the best offensive player of the day AND the best defensive player and had a run of title teams similar to MJ without the hiatus. Of course, then you have to discount for his era . . . figure the talent of about 1 division in Jordan's day, and even less today where the league has greatly expanded it's talent base. However, even in Mikan's day, if you were close to 7 foot tall, you at least considered a basketball career so the talent differential is less than at other positions.

ardee wrote:

Could you repost the stats comparing Mikan to Jordan?


1951 is the first year we have rebounding stats available and, according to Win Shares, the last year of his true prime (WS averaged 21.8 for the 3 years up to that, 13.9 for the 3 years after that, then he retired except for a short, aborted attempt at a comeback in 56). So let's take that and compare it to Jordan's best year of 1991(according to WS, it's either 88 for highest total or 91 for WS/48 and just behind 88 for total because he "only" played 3081 minutes).

In terms of raw averages:
Mikan averaged 14.1reb, 4.1ast, 28.4pts on a ts% of .509 v. a league ts% of .428 on a pace of 94.8
Jordan averaged 6.0reb, 5.5ast, 31.5pts on a ts% of .605 v. a league ts% of .534 and a pace of 95.6

The pace is not that different, nor are the raw numbers taking into account the positions they played; the key is the ts%. But, using a simple ratio, Mikan's equivalent ts% relative to 1991 league numbers is .634! So, rather than being inefficient, you can see that for his time he was extremely efficient. Nothing fancy, but it's always a shock how much efficiency changes from the 50s to the 60s.

Alternate: By the numbers, Oscar, Kobe, or Karl Malone, by the eye test, Jerry West, by advanced statistics Garnett or David Robinson . . . my secondary pick is Jerry West. There are 4 players in the 1960s who were a clear level above the league, the way LeBron and Curry (and maybe Durant if healthy) have been the last 3 years. They are (in my order) Russell, Wilt, West, and Ocar . . . then there's a big dropoff to Bob Pettit (5th best) and Elgin Baylor (6th best) . . . then another droppoff to anyone else. Pettit (and to a lesser extent Baylor) was more dominant in the 50s so he gets a big boost there v. the Walt Bellamy, Sam Jones, Hal Green types. I consider the 60s to be a strong era in NBA history due to the talent being packed together on a relatively few teams, as high or higher than the 80s and 90s, so there isn't the era penalty that makes Mikan so difficult to judge.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#3 » by JordansBulls » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:34 am

Code: Select all

 
              HCA(50+)/non-50                                 
Kobe:         18-2 / 7-0         
Garnett:   3-2  (60%) /6-0 (100%)
Dirk:      6-2 (75%)  /2-1 (67%)
Malone:    4-4 (50%)  /8-2 (80%)
Barkley:   2-1 (67%)  /8-1 (89%)         


Kobe with 1 MVP, 2 Finals MVP's, 5 Titles
Dirk with 1 MVP, 1 Finals MVP, 1 Title
Garnett with 1 MVP, 1 DPOY, 1 Title
Karl Malone 2 MVP's,
Moses Malone 3 MVP's, 1 Finals MVP, 1 Title

1st Vote: Kobe Bryant
2nd Vote: Moses Malone
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#4 » by Winsome Gerbil » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:35 am

11) Karl Malone
12) Kobe Bryant...Oscar Robertson....Kobe Bryant...Oscar Robertson.....I say....Big O!


Career Pts a Game
1) Kareem 38387 (already taken)
2) Mailman 36928 <---------

Mailman 36928pts 14968reb 5248ast 234.6ws .205ws/48, 102.5vorp <---------------------
Shaquille 28596pts 13099reb 3026ast 181.7ws .208ws/48, 74.0vorp (already taken)
Duncan 26497pts 15091reb 4225ast 206.4ws .209ws/48, 89.3vorp (already taken)
Hakeem 26946pts 13748reb 3058ast 162.8ws .177ws/48, 77.1vorp (already taken)
Garnett 26071pts 14662reb 5445ast 191.4ws .182ws/48, 94.0vorp (discussed for 7 rounds)


One of the most consistently overlooked and underrated greats on these boards. You can't make longevity arguments for ANYONE if you don't start the conversation with the Mailman. He was great forever. His team's best player for 15 straight years.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#5 » by andrewww » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:41 am

Vote: Kobe Bryant
Alternate: Jerry West


Already stated my reasons for Bean, but with The Logo he was perhaps the unluckiest superstar ever to consistently run into the Celtics and not have the 1 or 2 times they should have won go their way, namely in 1962 and 1969. His playoff performances exceeded even that of his RS play, and he did so without the 3pt line even though he was a great shooter.

Oscar was statistically dominant but did not contribute to a winning team that he probably should have.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#6 » by BasketballFan7 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:42 am

Vote: Julius Erving
Alternate: Kobe Bryant

I will copy and paste my argument from the last thread when I am on a computer rather than my phone.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#7 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:51 am

Hey, wanted to say: There's a lot of paranoia around those of us voting for him and there's just nothing nefarious about it. I'm not a KG fan in particular, but others made compelling cases which got me to rethink how I saw him, so I changed my opinion. That's how KG's stock has risen, by people just coming to their own conclusions.

It's weird to me that I need to say this though. I think people need to ask themselves why they start imagining villainy where none existed.

On the other hand, I get what it is to care about the results of the rankings. I used to care, and it helped drive me to learn the game better so I don't want to knock it too hard. I just wish people could seek to understand others' differing opinions without resorting to condemning them.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#8 » by THKNKG » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:29 am

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Dirk Nowitzki


Why KG over Kobe? KG peaked higher, and his prime was better. He gave superstar impact years 3-17. He was probably the most portable and versatile star probably ever, and he maximized impact wherever he was (including the 05-07 wolves). Top 5ish defensive player ever, and a very solid offensive player (on the Hakeem/Duncan level, not the Dirk/Shaq/Kareem level). Kobe seemed to maximize his impact the majority of the time too, but his max impact was spread more thinly year wise, he wasn't the greatest teammate (the whole Kobe vs Shaq debacle, etc.).

Why Dirk > Kobe? Similar longevity and offensive impact, but I value Dirk's floor spacin, gravity, etc. more than Kobe's. I made a post about it last thread. Higher peak, great teammate, similar primes. He led his team's offenses to greater heights than Kobe did, and his gravity is the greatest of any player to date.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#9 » by Pablo Novi » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:33 am

I just "voted" in some previous poll (I think it was GOAT #10). But I can't find that (typically) - so here's a summation:
N.B. The following 4 guys I all have in MY GOAT list in spots: GOAT #s: 7,8,9, 10.
Dr J (my GOAT #2 SF - behind LBJ slightly ahead of Bird - terrific "handle"; could do everything and many Great Years).
Kobe (my GOT #2 SG - I actually have him slightly ahead of MJ for REGULAR Season SG - more Great Years; but MJ squeaks by him due to his Post-Season work).
"O" (my GOAT #2 PG - I have him just barely behind Magic at PG - I could live with people taking "O" over Magic)
Karl Malone (my GOAT #2 PF - remarkably, he ran the entire 1990's as the ALL-NBA 1st-Team PF)

NEXT: West, Bird, Cousy, Pettit (as my GOAT #s 11-15 "Shaq & the White Boys")

N.B. With the exception of Bill Russell, whom I have GOAT #21 - I can't rank him higher because he was "only" the #2 at his own position during the entirety of his career (Wilt out-ranked him 7-2 in All-NBA 1st-Team Center - in the 9 years they both got selected)... With that exception, I have the other Centers (Shaq & Hakeem) RealGM has already selected in the GOAT Top 10
... I have them a bit further down MY GOAT list: GOAT #11: Shaq; GOAT #16: Hakeem.

While I don't have MAJOR problems with RealGMs rankings (I have all the guys below my GOAT Top 5 (KAJ, Magic, MJ, LBJ & TD - n that order) pretty close to each other)... while I don't have a major problem; I do have a minor one. Imo, each set of GOAT 5 spots should have (much) more balance: so in my GOAT Top 5 (and each additional set of 5 spots) I have one each of: PG, SG, SF, PF & C.

Imo, the great increase in running, cutting, twisting, ball-movement ... of the non-Bigs COUNTS considerably - enough to counterbalance the Bigs tendency to dominate more defensively.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#10 » by mdonnelly1989 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:34 am

VOTE 1: Kobe
VOTE 2: Oscar Robertson
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#11 » by rebirthoftheM » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:12 am

Looks like it will come down to KG, Dirk and Kobe. Not a voter, but i'd have Kobe and Dirk with a clear distinct (though small-ish relatively speaking) gap from KG. Dirk and Kobe can legitimately goes both ways depending on what one values to be honest.

But back to KG, I do hope somethings are explored in depth. Specifically, KG supposedly gets separation from the other two (more so Kobe than Dirk) on defense. KG is clearly inferior on offense. He is not in the same class. Nevertheless, he was still a high value RS offensive performer, even despite his dips in the PS, as many have clearly pointed out.

So questions re KG's defense. I have asked about what occurred with KG's defense in 05, 06 and 07. The general response has been that KG's D didn't actually really vary too much during these years, just his team situation impacted his defensive indicators most heavily in 05, and also 06. 07 it is said is more reflective of KG's true defensive value.

But this to me doesn't hold up for multiple levels. If KG's D didn't drop during those two years (05 and 06), then does this not itself indicate/imply how little control he (and other defensive players in general) he had on his teams defenses v say an elite offensive players control on their teams offense? I contend that you will never find aberrations of the sort seen with KG's defensive indicators as an chor in 05 & 06 like you would see with an elite offensive player when healthy, in prime form and as the offensive anchor. Certainly, this is not seen with Kobe and Dirk. So for me, I have strong suspicions about treating defensive indicators in the same way we'd treat offensive indicators, specifically, how much we should attribute defensive shifts to a specific player. Defense is far more team oriented and is more reactive than pro-active. The ceiling on an defensive players ability to control his team's D is therefore in general, and on a logical level, far more limited. IMO this is the only logical conclusion you can make if you want to contend that KG's D didn't drop in 05 & 06, and then somehow magically returned to elite levels in 07. And if one comes to the conclusion, then the alleged defensive separation is highly reduced.

I also think for this very reason, that the supposed defensive separation between Dirk and Kobe in the RS is again highly overblown. Any real distinction between the two should come to the RS and PS offense. If one wants to contend that a separation exists, relying on defensive indicators is highly flawed. Need sustained game tape-analysis.

Also, some other posters have explained why KG was an excellent playoff performer (comparatively against others) between 99-04. But again, quite simply, this can only hold up if you subscribe to the theory that defense=offense. KG's offense suffered in the PS. Many people try and spin this away, but the dude saw a dip of about 1.5 PPG (28.5 PPG per 100- not so good in comparison to others) per 100, and a 2.3% dip in efficiency. He was quite literally an inefficient scorer in the PS during those years without making up for it on the volume side. That's awful. Even against the poorly rated defensive 02 Mavs and 04 Kings, he gives you an inefficient display, which undercuts this claim that things fell apart because he was facing some GOAT like defenses. His AST/TO% slightly improves, but I can't see how that makes up for the drop in scoring production + the below league average efficiency. Also most things fall apart for KG in the box score department, but that has already been dismissed by others in favour of Net On/Off which are full of noise.

I just don't see it to be honest. KG's case rests upon things that don't really make sense to me.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#12 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:57 am

rebirthoftheM wrote:...But again, quite simply, this can only hold up if you subscribe to the theory that defense=offense. ....


Actually, for bigs, Defense> Offense, it almost has to be since each is half the game and for perimeter players offense>defense. It's why the majority of our choices so far have been bigs; they impact the defensive end more than offensive players while still often having valuable offense.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#13 » by Arman_tanzarian » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:03 am

1. Kobe
2. Oscar

I can't keep a man with 5 titles and arguably the top Offensive wing prior to LeBron/post mj any lower than this.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#14 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:20 am

rebirthoftheM wrote:I contend that you will never find aberrations of the sort seen with KG's defensive indicators as an chor in 05 & 06 like you would see with an elite offensive player when healthy, in prime form and as the offensive anchor.


Some examples I dug up

Wilt
60 Warriors - 7th of 8
61 Warriors - 6th of 8
63 Warriors - 5th of 9
64 Warriors - 7th of 9
66 Sixers - 6th of 9

Barkley
87 Sixers - 13th of 23

Jordan
87 Bulls - 12th of 23

Lebron
07 Cavs - 18th of 30
08 Cavs - 20th of 30

Wade
09 Heat - 20th of 30
10 Heat - 19th of 30

Regardless, KG is not Kobe or Dirk offensively, but the argument over them is the same as for Hakeem or Duncan over them even if it's accepted they're worse on offense (And Hakeem is a great example of a player who's teams had weak ORTGs a lot) - that the gap on defense makes up for it. KG doesn't have to be as good on eitehr end as Kobe or Dirk's offense is, to still be overall more valuable.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#15 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:28 am

Vote Kevin Garnett

This thread will come down to KG vs Kobe. For me I favor KG based on RAPM data supporting him, better intangibles that would lead him to fit with star teammates better, and I consider KG's offensive style of game to be highly valuable enough that the gap between him and Kobe is smaller than KG's defensive advantage.

2nd Jerry West
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#16 » by rebirthoftheM » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:31 am

Dr Positivity wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:I contend that you will never find aberrations of the sort seen with KG's defensive indicators as an chor in 05 & 06 like you would see with an elite offensive player when healthy, in prime form and as the offensive anchor.


Some examples I dug up

Wilt
60 Warriors - 7th of 8
61 Warriors - 6th of 8
63 Warriors - 5th of 9
64 Warriors - 7th of 9
66 Sixers - 6th of 9

Barkley
87 Sixers - 13th of 23

Jordan
87 Bulls - 12th of 23

Lebron
07 Cavs - 18th of 30
08 Cavs - 20th of 30

Wade
09 Heat - 20th of 30
10 Heat - 19th of 30

Regardless, KG is not Kobe or Dirk offensively, but the argument over them is the same as for Hakeem or Duncan over them even they're worse on offense (And Hakeem is a great example of a player who's teams had weak ORTGs a lot) - that the gap on defense makes up for it.


Wasn't referring to team overall ratings because this is evidently not fair. The KG defensive indicators I was referring to was his DRAPM (NPI and also Doc's RAPM stuff that Drza has referred to) as well as how his teams fared defensively with him on/off in 05 & 06. These are stuff the KG crowd really base their argument on, as limited game-tape analysis would not give their arguments the same level of authority.

You would expect to see major separation in the Wolves D in 05 & 06 when KG was on versus when he was off, like you saw in other years, yet this is patently not so. You would also expect to see better DRAPM figures. Which begs the question... what went wrong? Did KG stop playing high value D? IMO from all i've read and see, this is not so. Which then leads to the conclusion... there's only so much an elite defender, even a big can do, in the modern era to control his teams defense.

FYI Wade was +11.1 on O in 09 and +16.0 on/off in 2010. I haven't looked, but I'm sure he was one of the elites in ORAPM in those years.

And i'm sure if i had look, LBJ would be looking good in 07 and 08 (moreso 08 than 07 because 07 appears to be a relative 'off' year for him on offense).

penbeast0 wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:...But again, quite simply, this can only hold up if you subscribe to the theory that defense=offense. ....


Actually, for bigs, Defense> Offense, it almost has to be since each is half the game and for perimeter players offense>defense. It's why the majority of our choices so far have been bigs; they impact the defensive end more than offensive players while still often having valuable offense.


I do agree with this generally. But I wasn't speaking about teams per se. I was speaking about attributing shifts to specific individual players, and whether we should treat individual players offensive and indicators the same i.e. give them both equal weight as far as trying to gauge how much a player is individually impacting a game. In this respect, I don't find elite offensive and defensive players to be equal for the reason I mentioned earlier. This does not at all contradict the general maxim that bigs impact a teams defense more than non-bigs.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#17 » by andrewww » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:32 am

Dr Positivity wrote:Vote Kevin Garnett

This thread will come down to KG vs Kobe. For me I favor KG based on RAPM data supporting him, better intangibles that would lead him to fit with star teammates better, and I consider KG's offensive style of game to be highly valuable enough that the gap between him and Kobe is smaller than KG's defensive advantage.

2nd Jerry West


Which is particularly interesting on your 2nd vote looking more and more strategic but I disgress. All the Kobe votes from the last spot had Bird second even though it was obvious that Bird was the main competition at that spot, but it would have been disingenuous of me not to include Bird for consistency.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#18 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:39 am

andrewww wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:Vote Kevin Garnett

This thread will come down to KG vs Kobe. For me I favor KG based on RAPM data supporting him, better intangibles that would lead him to fit with star teammates better, and I consider KG's offensive style of game to be highly valuable enough that the gap between him and Kobe is smaller than KG's defensive advantage.

2nd Jerry West


Which is particularly interesting on your 2nd vote looking more and more strategic but I disgress. All the Kobe votes from the last spot had Bird second even though it was obvious that Bird was the main competition at that spot, but it would have been disingenuous of me not to include Bird for consistency.


My quick case for West over Kobe

- I have been favoring character strongly in previous picks such as ranking Duncan, Magic, Bird over Wilt/Shaq
- West's efficiency is amazing compared to his era. He led the league in TS% in multiple years. He is more like Curry level efficiency than Kobe and it would have been even better with 3pt line. Kobe's advantage over West is he is higher volume scorer considering his minutes and league. I prefer the lower volume but high efficiency guard
- I give more credit to West for his playoff career than Kobe
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#19 » by Clyde Frazier » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:57 am

mdonnelly1989 wrote:VOTE 1: Kobe
VOTE 2: Oscar Robertson


You have to provide reasoning for Kobe for your vote to count. Also, bold your 2 votes.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#20 » by Winsome Gerbil » Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:05 am

If this thread comes down to Kobe v. KG...well, the why of it.

And this KG GOAty defender stuff...just my my my.

He was really good. So good you barely noticed half the time. That's what happens when you're not a rim protector and you're not a quick perimeter guy who is going to smother people.

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