VOTE:
George Mikan. Yes, he played in a smaller, appreciably weaker NBA without the great black stars of his day. However, he dominated his league in a way that no one left, not even Shaq, matches. I am willing to switch my vote if (a) someone does a good analysis of his impact v. that of Shaq/Hakeem or (b) someone convinces me that Bird/Kobe/other deserves to be in ahead of Shaq/Hakeem. It's a bit of a cheat since I know he has no support, but I want him to be in the conversation. He was considered the best offensive player of the day AND the best defensive player and had a run of title teams similar to MJ without the hiatus. Of course, then you have to discount for his era . . . figure the talent of about 1 division in Jordan's day, and even less today where the league has greatly expanded it's talent base. However, even in Mikan's day, if you were close to 7 foot tall, you at least considered a basketball career so the talent differential is less than at other positions.
ardee wrote:
Could you repost the stats comparing Mikan to Jordan?
1951 is the first year we have rebounding stats available and, according to Win Shares, the last year of his true prime (WS averaged 21.8 for the 3 years up to that, 13.9 for the 3 years after that, then he retired except for a short, aborted attempt at a comeback in 56). So let's take that and compare it to Jordan's best year of 1991(according to WS, it's either 88 for highest total or 91 for WS/48 and just behind 88 for total because he "only" played 3081 minutes).
In terms of raw averages:
Mikan averaged 14.1reb, 4.1ast, 28.4pts on a ts% of .509 v. a league ts% of .428 on a pace of 94.8
Jordan averaged 6.0reb, 5.5ast, 31.5pts on a ts% of .605 v. a league ts% of .534 and a pace of 95.6
The pace is not that different, nor are the raw numbers taking into account the positions they played; the key is the ts%. But, maybe Durant if healthy) have been the last 3 years. They are (in my order) Russell, Wilt, West, and Ocar . . . then there's a big dropoff to Bob Pettit (5th best) and Elgin Baylor (6th best) . . . then another drop off to anyone else. Pettit (and to a lesser extent Baylor) was more dominant in the 50s so he gets a big boost there v. the Walt Bellamy, Sam Jones, Hal Green tyusing a simple ratio, Mikan's equivalent ts% relative to 1991 league numbers is .634! So, rather than being inefficient, you can see that for his time he was extremely efficient. Nothing fancy, but it's always a shock how much efficiency changes from the 50s to the 60s.
Alternate: With Jerry West in, who stands out the most from their era.
In the 50s, it has be Bob Pettit over Cousy and Arizin, probably the best player through the mid 60s not in yet as well (yes, I think he was better than Elgin Baylor -- more efficient, better rebounder, more aggressive defender, maybe even better floor spacer though Elgin was more creative and a clearly superior playmaker).
Through the 70s, Julius Erving stands out as the best player in the ABA (though Artis Gilmore was reasonably close) and then a great NBA player as well (Gilmore was good, not great once he changed leagues). I take him over Havlicek pretty clearly, Hondo's defensive edge doesn't make up for Erving's offensive one . . . going the opposite way, Erving approaches Gervin's scoring and gives you a lot more everywhere else). I would also consider Walt Frazier, short career but very dominant for a guard.
80s, Moses Malone is the prime candidate. I think it's way too early for Charles Barkley. Defense is too important in a big and he was sadly lacking. I see him more as Amare Stoudamire with a few more great years; and I though Shawn Marion was the better player in Phoenix.
90s, with Jordan and Hakeem in, David Robinson becomes the next best candidate. The darling of the defense and advance stats set, I would like to see the post about his defense in the playoffs not being as dominant repeated and discussed.
00s, the greats of the early 00s are pretty much all in except for Dirk Nowitzki. Of the current stars, Curry is fast approaching his moment and Kevin Durant indeed should be in the discussion. In fact, of the top 20 all-time in MVP shares, the only ones not yet voted in are: 12 Julius Erving (some ABA), 13 David Robinson, 14 Kevin Durant, 15 Moses Malone, 16 Mel Daniels (ABA), and 18. Bob Pettit.
So, for me, it comes down to Erving, Robinson, Dirk, and maybe Pettit or Durant. Erving was the most dominant but in a weak era (not just the ABA but the 70s and early 80s in general were characterized by strong teams at the top but lots of weak patsies from expansion), Pettit also dominated in a weak era though he carried his strong play into the much stronger 60s, but the weak early era and questions about his postseason play outside possibly the GOAT closeout quarter in NBA history when Russell went down with an ankle injury and Pettit rose up and single handedly carried the Hawks to their only NBA championship. David Robinson is the advanced stats darling and defender but again, questions about his postseasons play have dropped him this far. Durant's great offensive skills are offset by his mediocre defense and rebounding. Finally, Durant has always been in the shadow of LeBron but has been a great player and showed very good defense as well as outstanding playoff performance this year.
I am open to discussion and willing to switch to any of the other 4 but for now, I will tentatively cast a vote for
Julius Erving.
This was posted by an APBR poster for comparing ABA and NBA numbers of that day:
NBA-ABA Conversion Charts
year min sco reb ast SS#
1968 .38 .64 .80 .90 782
1969 .73 .72 .85 .90 125
1970 .46 .80 .88 .90 611
1971 .74 .86 .90 .95 365
1972 .91 .90 .92 1.0 529
1973 .97 .91 .92 1.0 316
1974 .61 .92 .94 1.0 347
1975 .87 .92 .95 1.0 358
1976 .80 .92 .96 1.0 3425
The Minutes column is (NBA Min)/(ABA Min) -- averaged over the
sample for that year. In 1968, several players' rates are compared
to their last previous NBA season, which in some cases were 2-4
years prior.
Sco, Reb, and Ast are actually derived from averages of several
estimates: straight average, minutes-weighted, 3-year average, and
3-year/weighted by minutes. Then just smoothed over. 'Min' are not
smoothed, merely averaged.
Assists are so jumpy, I just crudely estimated them.
SS# is the sample size in player-games considered. Most years
(3-400 player-games) are equivalent to only 4-5 full player-seasons.
(The small 1969 sample is largely one guy, Rick Barry.)
The year of reference is the ABA season played. Whether Player X was in the NBA in 1971 and the ABA in '72; or in the ABA in '72 and NBA in '73; or in both leagues in '72; his numbers are averaged into the 1972 lot. Provided he had significant minutes in both appearances.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
