2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[RCM88x]

Conditioning continues to be his biggest issue and the root of much of his shortcomings. He looked very fatigued for the entirety of the second half. Until that gets better he's probably going to continue to fall short of expectations.

[70sFan]

In a vacuum i dont think embiid was bad, he still hit key shots and created shots with his gravity

In a vaccum sure, but he's an MVP-level player. We expect a bit more than that from supposedly one of the best individual seasons in the recent years.

[70sFan]

Is this the worst matchup imaginable for the Celtics in the first round by the way? I can see the Heat making their lifes extremely tough, another classic 1st round is up there.

[Fadeaway_J]

Is this the worst matchup imaginable for the Celtics in the first round by the way? I can see the Heat making their lifes extremely tough, another classic 1st round is up there.

Are we assuming they even beat the Bulls without Butler?

[Colbinii]

Is this the worst matchup imaginable for the Celtics in the first round by the way? I can see the Heat making their lifes extremely tough, another classic 1st round is up there.

Yeah, Coby White is going to dice up the Celtics defense

It could be. I love watching the Heat in the post-season. They are the best team in the past 5 years or so who consistently follows their game plan to a T.

[eminence]

Celtics roll either squad.

[Colbinii]

Celtics roll either squad.

Yup. No more than 5 games.

[AEnigma]

Is this the worst matchup imaginable for the Celtics in the first round by the way? I can see the Heat making their lifes extremely tough, another classic 1st round is up there.

Maybe if Butler were healthy. So glad to see these types of lucky breaks for the Boston fanbase…

[Special_Puppy]

Is this the worst matchup imaginable for the Celtics in the first round by the way? I can see the Heat making their lifes extremely tough, another classic 1st round is up there.

No, 76ers were the matchup the Celtics feared. The Heat should be dispatched in perhaps 5 games

[70sFan]

I know that the Celtics are better than before, while the Heat are probably worse than last year, but we shouldn't forget that the Heat beat them last year. Of course that's assuming healthy Butler, otherwise they have no shot.

I also forgot completely about the second play-in game... yeah it's not a given that they'll beat Chicago. Bulls have no chance to compete against the Celtics though.

[RCM88x]

If Herro was injured instead of Butler I would give them a decent shot at pushing the series to 6 games. But currently, I would be surprised if it goes 5.

[Colbinii]

If Herro was injured instead of Butler I would give them a decent shot at pushing the series to 6 games. But currently, I would be surprised if it goes 5.

I would be surprised if Miami can beat Chicago with Butler hobbled.

[Ron Swanson]

Is this the worst matchup imaginable for the Celtics in the first round by the way? I can see the Heat making their lifes extremely tough, another classic 1st round is up there.

Sarcasm? Especially now with the news that Jimmy almost surely is done for the playoffs. I get the people that will say "I'll believe the Heat are dead when I see it", but in a year where the league parity is at an all-time high, getting either a 39-win Bulls team minus their two best players (LaVine, Caruso) or Miami without Butler (and maybe even Rozier) is basically a dream scenario for Boston. It does really seem to be "their year" with these kind of breaks.

[RCM88x]

If Herro was injured instead of Butler I would give them a decent shot at pushing the series to 6 games. But currently, I would be surprised if it goes 5.

I would be surprised if Miami can beat Chicago with Butler hobbled.

Both teams are an enigma so I wouldn't be surprised by anything. Hell I honestly wouldn't be shocked if somehow the Hawks end up playing the Celtics this weekend.

But yeah, with Butler out Miami is likely toast even though Chicago without Caruso is not good.

[70sFan]

Is this the worst matchup imaginable for the Celtics in the first round by the way? I can see the Heat making their lifes extremely tough, another classic 1st round is up there.

Sarcasm? Especially now with the news that Jimmy almost surely is done for the playoffs. I get the people that will say "I'll believe the Heat are dead when I see it", but in a year where the league parity is at an all-time high, getting either a 39-win Bulls team minus their two best players (LaVine, Caruso) or Miami without Butler (and maybe even Rozier) is basically a dream scenario for Boston. It does really seem to be "their year" with these kind of breaks.

I didn't know it was that serious, yeah without Butler they are cooked.

[Lebronnygoat]

Embid averaged 32/10/5, on his usual efficiency in the last 5 games before the play ins.

Is that a question? MJ played bad in those 1996 games, and certainly didn’t do any late game performances like at least Embid did today. I mean what do you want me to say about MJ in 1997? He was more efficient than Embid and was scoring mid-sometimes high 30’s in those games unlike Embid. Certainly MJ wasn’t the same at all as he used to be or the goat lvl player in the last 3 years, though, in 1998 actually is more impressive than 97 Jordan In totality, and 96 Jordan in the finals.

1) He shot under 50% in 3 of the 4 games he played after returning from his 29-game absence, and played under 30 minutes per game in two of them. He was 11/25 for 29 points in the second game. He also played 38 minutes, which is a lot, and the most he's played since January 16th. And yes, Jordan shot in volume; that's what he did, for good or for ill. Embiid did not need to shoot in volume, particularly whilst not shooting well.

2) He was at 53.7% TS last night despite shooting 35.3% from the field. Jordan was actually at 53.2% TS in the 97 Finals, 53.8% in the 96 Finals and 51.6% TS in the 1998 Finals. Fairly similar efficiency, as it happens.

3) I don't think 98 was more impressive. He chucked a lot and both teams slowed the game down quite a bit, leaving it something of a disgusting grind-fest. He also had 2 guys scoring 15+ ppg for him, and Malone had one guy managing double-digit PPG with Hornacek at 10.7 ppg. Support mattered. And Chicago smashed the offensive glass against Utah.

EDIT:

4) Forgot to mention, Jordan was below playoff league average TS% during the 98 Finals, FWIW. 52.9% TS was average during the playoffs in 98. So that was -1.3% rTS, FWIW. He shot a lot. He didn't score well. The series was ugly-as, so it worked out. His low turnover rate helped a lot, but man, he was not performing well by any standard. He was old, Pippen wasn't playing well, Utah was a very good defense... And because it was before the 24/7 coverage era, and because it was Jordan, no one wanted to say anything. There are reasons to justify a little bit of a rougher performance, right?

But that's my point. The reasons aren't the same, but the idea of their presence remains. Embiid had a rough night. They happen. We've grown into the habit of crucifying people every time they do, but he came up when it counted in the 4th (kind of like 2011 Dirk, actually) and his health remains in some doubt. And as Ohayo astutely noted, he was quite relevant on D.

1. No way we’re going low to use FG%, altogether Embid had his regular season average TS% and eFG% in the last games post 1st game back. 32-10-5.

2. MJ hovering around 53%TS in 1997 in an offensive system definitely worse than Embid’s with MJ scoring mid-high 30’s is so different. Relative to era, MJ was league average efficiency vs a healthy team, vs Embid -5 below league average efficiency. Again, on over 10 points per game. MJ had much more % of his team points than Embid too, by far. In one of his games dealing with food poisoning (idk if you included this game or not).

3 & 4. I’m talking about Embid rn, not gunna derail this into an MJ debate (which I sorta started as I drew comparisons between different MJ’s).

But yeah Embid played bad.

[Peregrine01]

Sometimes I wonder why the Heat can't get more star talent. By all accounts, they're a top run organization with perhaps the best coach in the league and plays in one of the most attractive locations in the country. Is Heat Culture that big a turn off for a lot of players?

[tsherkin]

1. No way we’re going low to use FG%, altogether Embid had his regular season average TS% and eFG% in the last games post 1st game back. 32-10-5.

But yes, we absolutely are going to look at low FG% and situations where it comes up for players who don't take comparable criticism...

2. MJ hovering around 53%TS in 1997 in an offensive system definitely worse than Embid’s with MJ scoring mid-high 30’s is so different.

It isn't THAT different. Also, MJ rocking 53.2% TS in the 97 Finals against a league postseason environment of 53.5% TS is still worthy of discussion, being below average as it was.

Also, cracking on the triangle in 97 is foolishness; it was one of the best-coordinated systems for spacing and ball movement in the league that whole decade. And Scottie was scoring over 20 ppg on better efficiency than MJ in that same series, while Kukoc shot 55.6% from 3, lest you forget. He had plenty of offensive support in that series.

3 & 4. I’m talking about Embid rn, not gunna derail this into an MJ debate (which I sorta started as I drew comparisons between different MJ’s).

But yeah Embid played bad.

The main thrust of my point is that people are very ready to crucify a player for a rough shooting night without considering context, without considering other contributions, without considering full player history... and without realizing that many of their untouchable idols have had similarly brutal performances (particularly against teams like Miami, which are very good defenses). The magnitude of backlash some players experience for performances that would be washed over for other players is noticeable.

[clearlynotjesse]

Sometimes I wonder why the Heat can't get more star talent. By all accounts, they're a top run organization with perhaps the best coach in the league and plays in one of the most attractive locations in the country. Is Heat Culture that big a turn off for a lot of players?

They're pretty much always over the cap and they're quite cagey with their assets. No cap space + no trades = no stars.

[Lebronnygoat]

1. No way we’re going low to use FG%, altogether Embid had his regular season average TS% and eFG% in the last games post 1st game back. 32-10-5.

But yes, we absolutely are going to look at low FG% and situations where it comes up for players who don't take comparable criticism...

2. MJ hovering around 53%TS in 1997 in an offensive system definitely worse than Embid’s with MJ scoring mid-high 30’s is so different.

It isn't THAT different. Also, MJ rocking 53.2% TS in the 97 Finals against a league postseason environment of 53.5% TS is still worthy of discussion, being below average as it was.

Also, cracking on the triangle in 97 is foolishness; it was one of the best-coordinated systems for spacing and ball movement in the league that whole decade. And Scottie was scoring over 20 ppg on better efficiency than MJ in that same series, while Kukoc shot 55.6% from 3, lest you forget. He had plenty of offensive support in that series.

3 & 4. I’m talking about Embid rn, not gunna derail this into an MJ debate (which I sorta started as I drew comparisons between different MJ’s).

But yeah Embid played bad.

The main thrust of my point is that people are very ready to crucify a player for a rough shooting night without considering context, without considering other contributions, without considering full player history... and without realizing that many of their untouchable idols have had similarly brutal performances (particularly against teams like Miami, which are very good defenses). The magnitude of backlash some players experience for performances that would be washed over for other players is noticeable.

Again, MJ is mid 30’s on +5 efficiency compared to Embid. And again Embid is scoring 23 points. I can’t believe you drew a line of comparison with Embid yesterday vs MJ in 1997.