2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[ardee]

Such a shame that we don't get 76ers vs Bucks w/ Doc in the 1st round.

[rk2023]

Grizz should protest the game just to screw with LA.

What are your thoughts on Minnesota vs Phoenix series?

Not thrilled as someone cheering for Minnesota. Phoenix is one of the best midrange shooting teams ever and defends Ant well, it'll be a very tough series for the Wolves.

Vogel can squeeze a ton of juice out of their defense against flawed offenses, which MN clearly is.

[rk2023]

For the series that are set in stone:

• Cleveland over Orlando in 7 (o/u of games with both teams in triple digits 1.5)
• Indiana over Milwaukee in 6 (Giannis’ injury concerns me, so I’d be quick to change my mind / own being wrong)
• Dallas over Los Angeles (Clips) in 7
• Phoenix over Minnesota in 6

[Dr Positivity]

The Cavs zeroing in the Joe Johnson Hawks belt with them vs Orlando being the low ratings matchup and then will job to the 1 seed in Round 2.

[Bidofo]

End of season flowers for OG Anunoby:

#1 in DRAPM per this source and this source
20-3 record on the Knicks when he plays, 19-2 with Brunson, with wins over healthy MIN, healthy PHI, healthy DEN, healthy MIA, healthy MIL, and healthy albeit maybe unmotivated BOS (with a MOV in those games of +19.7 )
~102 DRTG (-13 rDRTG) in 760 min when he's on for the Knicks, +23/+23 OnCourt/On-off
100% OnWin% while on the Knicks (has had a positive +/- in each game)

The sample is small but the results are sweet. If there had to be a darkhorse for a conference where Boston is all but expected to make the Finals, the Knicks are it.

Of course the reward for it all is a first round matchup vs Embiid & co. or the reigning conference champs

[falcolombardi]

Such a shame that we don't get 76ers vs Bucks w/ Doc in the 1st round.

I will feel robbed if bucks vs sixers doesnt happen

I need two of giannis, jokic, embiid to **** play a series god damn it lol

[GSP]

Giannis legacy is gonna be very very interesting to analyze if he gets upset in the 1st round w/ Hca for yet another postseason.............Pacers roster are mostly playoff virgins too including their star guard and best player

[Dr Positivity]

Giannis legacy is gonna be very very interesting to analyze if he gets upset in the 1st round w/ Hca for yet another postseason.............Pacers roster are mostly playoff virgins too including their star guard and best player

Depends how many games he plays

[WestGOAT]

Giannis legacy is gonna be very very interesting to analyze if he gets upset in the 1st round w/ Hca for yet another postseason.............Pacers roster are mostly playoff virgins too including their star guard and best player

Depends how many games he plays

Embiid legacy has suffered a lot due to him missing games / not being healthy in the playoffs, Giannis is not as extreme, but injuries have derailed his playoffs in at least two times now (2020 and 2023, both time against the Heat). So why wouldn't his legacy also be impacted?

[The-Power]

For the series that are set in stone:

• Cleveland over Orlando in 7 (o/u of games with both teams in triple digits 1.5)
• Indiana over Milwaukee in 6 (Giannis’ injury concerns me, so I’d be quick to change my mind / own being wrong)
• Dallas over Los Angeles (Clips) in 7
• Phoenix over Minnesota in 6

I'm with you on Cleveland over Orlando but could see them pulling it off in 5 even. But perhaps I'm still underrating the Magic and it's going to be closer. CLE having such a rough time with their best players available also does not inspire confidence but I still think Mitchell has by far the best chance to be the difference-maker in a defense-first series on either team.

If Giannis plays then I have the Bucks in 6 despite all their struggles. If Giannis is out for the first two games then I'd go with Indiana. I don't fully trust the Pacers in the playoffs but I also don't think the Bucks can just switch it on either and they'll need Giannis to dominate. If he's out for the first games and/or comes back hobbled, Indiana certainly has the talent to beat the Bucks.

DAL vs. LAC is so tough. I voted Dallas in 7, too, as this should be Luka's year and the Mavs have been solid. But the Clippers ultimately taking the series would absolutely not surprise me either. There's a lot of experience and talent on that roster. Dallas' role players are not exactly proven playoff commodities, but it definitely helps that they will have simple roles and be led by two playoff veterans.

PHX is the toughest team to evaluate, so no outcome would be a big surprise. But I still don't fully buy the Timberwolves either, and when it doubt I'm more comfortable siding with the more experienced team. PHX in 6 with me being fully aware that the Jekyll-and-Hyde Suns may make this take look foolish with an implosion – especially since Minnesota has a pretty good team themselves, obviously.

On the playin-games: Warriors over the Kings but with very little confidence (no idea which Warriors team will show up and the Kings can always put on an offensive performance that can beat you in any game, too). Lakers over Pelicans. I trust LeBron – and to a lesser extent AD – to perform in a must-win game more than anyone on the Pelicans, even on the road. 76ers over Miami but it's far from a foregone conclusion as some seem to think, and Miami winning would not at all be a surprise. No confidence in either Atlanta or Chicago. I think Chicago has a higher floor and Atlanta the higher ceiling in a single game. My head says Chicago but my gut tells me Atlanta, so I'll just go with the latter.

[Dr Positivity]

Giannis legacy is gonna be very very interesting to analyze if he gets upset in the 1st round w/ Hca for yet another postseason.............Pacers roster are mostly playoff virgins too including their star guard and best player

Depends how many games he plays

Embiid legacy has suffered a lot due to him missing games / not being healthy in the playoffs, Giannis is not as extreme, but injuries have derailed his playoffs in at least two times now (2020 and 2023, both time against the Heat). So why wouldn't his legacy also be impacted?

I can't see Embiid's injury excuse as THAT significant for these losses, they just got legit beat most of the time, and most damning, it was always to the wrong teams (they haven't lost to an eventual East champion since the Raptors).

The Bucks should've at least made a 2nd finals during their dominant regular season run under Bud and with the East competition not really being that great (The Heat making the finals twice is early 2000s Nets 2.0, except without the no superstars excuse) but this year it's clear the team is supporting cast is not that reliable after making the NBA Russell Wilson trade and he's probably missing half the series.

[Special_Puppy]

Giannis legacy is gonna be very very interesting to analyze if he gets upset in the 1st round w/ Hca for yet another postseason.............Pacers roster are mostly playoff virgins too including their star guard and best player

I think his playoff legacy is mostly set after 2021. Needs more deep playoff runs to climb into the top 15 all-time of course though

[parsnips33]

So impressed by the Pelicans perimeter defenders - they are long and athletic and disciplined

Feels like they are one missing ingredient away from being absolutely elite

[Dr Positivity]

Top 10 most likely champions

1. Denver - Have proven it already, have the best player, and the West is not super intimidating

2. Boston - Dominant regular season play and playoff experience, Tatum has closed series before

3. Philadelphia - There being a year of Embiid like Jokic and Giannis at some point would make sense, the odds of them making it through play in are very good with 2 home games and the second against Bulls/Hawks. If they have to play Boston in Rd 1, well they had to play them sometime and they would probably be finals favorites if they win.

4. Milwaukee - Despite looking off on paper Giannis and Lillard is still a really good combo and they have some role players that have done it before. Would be like 95 Rockets coming in with average regular season play.

5. Dallas - Like the Sixers the Mavs have the superstar looking for his playoff breakthrough year, and it seems like Denver getting torched by pick and roll guards is the best formula for them to lose.

6. LA Clippers - They could be as high as 3rd/4th if not for durability concerns

7. LA Lakers - I'm also not convinced health wise but I believe in them more than a combo like Durant/Booker and they play in situation is reasonable with Pelicans as beatable and then a backup game if necessary.

8. Golden State - On one hand, it's brutal they have to win two road play in games in a row, I mean even the Kings could knock them out. On the other hand, if they somehow get through and they end up in the Thunder/LAC/Dallas bracket, their road to WCF is manageable.

9. Miami - Feels like inevitable that if they went on a run AGAIN they would eventually run into the champion, but they do know how to play those East teams.

10. Minnesota - They would have to EAT on defense and Edwards having an 06 Wade run, but they do have a bit more playoff experience than the Thunder and are relatively durable

[Colbinii]

Top 10 most likely champions

1. Denver - Have proven it already, have the best player, and the West is not super intimidating

2. Boston - Dominant regular season play and playoff experience, Tatum has closed series before

3. Philadelphia - There being a year of Embiid like Jokic and Giannis at some point would make sense, the odds of them making it through play in are very good with 2 home games and the second against Bulls/Hawks. If they have to play Boston in Rd 1, well they had to play them sometime and they would probably be finals favorites if they win.

4. Milwaukee - Despite looking off on paper Giannis and Lillard is still a really good combo and they have some role players that have done it before. Would be like 95 Rockets coming in with average regular season play.

5. Dallas - Like the Sixers the Mavs have the superstar looking for his playoff breakthrough year, and it seems like Denver getting torched by pick and roll guards is the best formula for them to lose.

6. LA Clippers - They could be as high as 3rd/4th if not for durability concerns

7. LA Lakers - I'm also not convinced health wise but I believe in them more than a combo like Durant/Booker and they play in situation is reasonable with Pelicans as beatable and then a backup game if necessary.

8. Golden State - On one hand, it's brutal they have to win two road play in games in a row, I mean even the Kings could knock them out. On the other hand, if they somehow get through and they end up in the Thunder/LAC/Dallas bracket, their road to WCF is manageable.

9. Miami - Feels like inevitable that if they went on a run AGAIN they would eventually run into the champion, but they do know how to play those East teams.

10. Minnesota - They would have to EAT on defense and Edwards having an 06 Wade run, but they do have a bit more playoff experience than the Thunder and are relatively durable

I would have Phoenix over a handful of these teams.

They took Denver to 6 games last year with Cameron Payne starting at PG, no Beal/Allen/Nurkic, and only 2 games of CP3.

Look at the minutes they had in that series against Denver, it's brutal.

Payne 146 Minutes
Ayton 148 Minutes [5 Games, averaged 11/8 with little defense]
Shamet 129 Minutes
Landale 106 Minutes
Ross 65 Minutes

[Dr Positivity]

Top 10 most likely champions

1. Denver - Have proven it already, have the best player, and the West is not super intimidating

2. Boston - Dominant regular season play and playoff experience, Tatum has closed series before

3. Philadelphia - There being a year of Embiid like Jokic and Giannis at some point would make sense, the odds of them making it through play in are very good with 2 home games and the second against Bulls/Hawks. If they have to play Boston in Rd 1, well they had to play them sometime and they would probably be finals favorites if they win.

4. Milwaukee - Despite looking off on paper Giannis and Lillard is still a really good combo and they have some role players that have done it before. Would be like 95 Rockets coming in with average regular season play.

5. Dallas - Like the Sixers the Mavs have the superstar looking for his playoff breakthrough year, and it seems like Denver getting torched by pick and roll guards is the best formula for them to lose.

6. LA Clippers - They could be as high as 3rd/4th if not for durability concerns

7. LA Lakers - I'm also not convinced health wise but I believe in them more than a combo like Durant/Booker and they play in situation is reasonable with Pelicans as beatable and then a backup game if necessary.

8. Golden State - On one hand, it's brutal they have to win two road play in games in a row, I mean even the Kings could knock them out. On the other hand, if they somehow get through and they end up in the Thunder/LAC/Dallas bracket, their road to WCF is manageable.

9. Miami - Feels like inevitable that if they went on a run AGAIN they would eventually run into the champion, but they do know how to play those East teams.

10. Minnesota - They would have to EAT on defense and Edwards having an 06 Wade run, but they do have a bit more playoff experience than the Thunder and are relatively durable

I would have Phoenix over a handful of these teams.

They took Denver to 6 games last year with Cameron Payne starting at PG, no Beal/Allen/Nurkic, and only 2 games of CP3.

Look at the minutes they had in that series against Denver, it's brutal.

Payne 146 Minutes
Ayton 148 Minutes [5 Games, averaged 11/8 with little defense]
Shamet 129 Minutes
Landale 106 Minutes
Ross 65 Minutes

I might have snuck them into 8-10 but I think I trust them the least health wise of anyone, Durant and Booker getting injured would be no surprise but they're also not built at all for a Nurkic injury, and Beal timebomb going off wouldn't help either. Not that I was in love with them anyway as I think they are missing something intangibles/vibes wise like Durant's Nets.

[parsnips33]

GPII out for the play-in game

This second stint with the Dubs has been so much worse than the first

[dygaction]

Luka is the only Pg you take over Brunson in 2024 specially factoring in playoff play. Mind boggling Dallas had both. What a player Brunson is

It could be argued Brunson would have never reached this level playing second fiddle to Luka. And with how the Mavs look now with Kyrie in place of him, I think they will probably be fine with it.

That being said, losing him in free agency was still a loss. If you had whatever they could've gotten for him to the current roster, they'd be even scarier.

In that parallel universe, there would be no DFS and Dinwiddie for Kyrie anymore. Maybe it is a win-win for all sides involved.

[ardee]

Top 10 most likely champions

1. Denver - Have proven it already, have the best player, and the West is not super intimidating

2. Boston - Dominant regular season play and playoff experience, Tatum has closed series before

3. Philadelphia - There being a year of Embiid like Jokic and Giannis at some point would make sense, the odds of them making it through play in are very good with 2 home games and the second against Bulls/Hawks. If they have to play Boston in Rd 1, well they had to play them sometime and they would probably be finals favorites if they win.

4. Milwaukee - Despite looking off on paper Giannis and Lillard is still a really good combo and they have some role players that have done it before. Would be like 95 Rockets coming in with average regular season play.

5. Dallas - Like the Sixers the Mavs have the superstar looking for his playoff breakthrough year, and it seems like Denver getting torched by pick and roll guards is the best formula for them to lose.

6. LA Clippers - They could be as high as 3rd/4th if not for durability concerns

7. LA Lakers - I'm also not convinced health wise but I believe in them more than a combo like Durant/Booker and they play in situation is reasonable with Pelicans as beatable and then a backup game if necessary.

8. Golden State - On one hand, it's brutal they have to win two road play in games in a row, I mean even the Kings could knock them out. On the other hand, if they somehow get through and they end up in the Thunder/LAC/Dallas bracket, their road to WCF is manageable.

9. Miami - Feels like inevitable that if they went on a run AGAIN they would eventually run into the champion, but they do know how to play those East teams.

10. Minnesota - They would have to EAT on defense and Edwards having an 06 Wade run, but they do have a bit more playoff experience than the Thunder and are relatively durable

If the Lakers weren't playing Denver in round 1 would you have them higher?

[ardee]

Such a shame that we don't get 76ers vs Bucks w/ Doc in the 1st round.

I will feel robbed if bucks vs sixers doesnt happen

I need two of giannis, jokic, embiid to **** play a series god damn it lol

And Luka, don't forget him....

We may finally get Luka/Jokic in the WCF (still hoping for a Lakers upset though).