2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[Clyde Frazier]

A little off season movement with the beal trade, possible Paul destinations and Draymond opting out so good time to start a new season thread. NBA draft on Thursday as well. Have at it!

2022-23 thread here: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2208049

[rk2023]

Watch on YouTube

[AEnigma]

Not sure Portland can justifiably keep both the third pick and Lillard. Not saying they need to make that decision right now, but tough to see both being on the roster a year from now.

[Lou Fan]

Not sure Portland can justifiably keep both the third pick and Lillard. Not saying they need to make that decision right now, but tough to see both being on the roster a year from now.

I think that means they do have to make the decision now though because the 3rd pick will never have more expected value than now and if the player ends up being worth more than the pick is now a year from now then you absolutely can't trade that player. You can delay trading Lillard but you can't delay trading the pick.

[eminence]

Does anyone have the 5-year RAPM splits that were used to create BPM 2.0?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Does anyone have the 5-year RAPM splits that were used to create BPM 2.0?

Is it from shotcharts?

[eminence]

Does anyone have the 5-year RAPM splits that were used to create BPM 2.0?

Is it from shotcharts?

Nope, it was from Daniel Myers (the BBreference guy).

[Colbinii]

Not sure Portland can justifiably keep both the third pick and Lillard. Not saying they need to make that decision right now, but tough to see both being on the roster a year from now.

Of course they can't--Lillard has been very transparent about wanting the team to add real, impactful talent [by using #3] or trade himself.

If Portland has Draymond, Klay, Wiggins and Kerr coaching, maybe Lillard would stay while the team added #3, but this isn't the cast around Curry--its the mediocrity up in Portland.

[Dr Positivity]

Top 10 in title probability

1. Nuggets
2. Warriors
3. Bucks
4. 76ers
5. Lakers
6. Cavaliers
7. Grizzlies
8. Celtics
9. Heat
10. Suns

[rk2023]

Top 10 in title probability

1. Nuggets
2. Warriors
3. Bucks
4. 76ers
5. Lakers
6. Cavaliers
7. Grizzlies
8. Celtics
9. Heat
10. Suns

Any reason you’re higher on the Warriors (or are these sportsbook odds)? I think they run the same core back for the most part - so it seems from reports and speculation - and fare better with health and getting GP2, Wiggins, Steph all (hopefully) more playing time. Hard for me to see them near the top dog level atm though, could very well be wrong and have no problem walking back if so.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Top 10 in title probability

1. Nuggets
2. Warriors
3. Bucks
4. 76ers
5. Lakers
6. Cavaliers
7. Grizzlies
8. Celtics
9. Heat
10. Suns

I get being skeptical but Suns at 10 is crazy lol

[Dr Positivity]

Any reason you’re higher on the Warriors (or are these sportsbook odds)? I think they run the same core back for the most part - so it seems from reports and speculation - and fare better with health and getting GP2, Wiggins, Steph all (hopefully) more playing time. Hard for me to see them near the top dog level atm though, could very well be wrong and have no problem walking back if so.

They still have one of THE guys which I thought was the most important thing to be rated high, that's that's why I didn't put the Sixers lower than 4 as well as the year of Embiid in the playoffs is at least possible (the fact that Doncic's team isn't even top 10 shows what a mess Mavs are), it doesn't seem unreasonable they could put it together chemistry wise like 2022 again and have young players finally deliver. Them vs Bucks is close but Bucks have to deal with free agency and even if they keep everyone I think one of Middleton/Holiday/Lopez could pass their prime soon.

I get being skeptical but Suns at 10 is crazy lol

Maybe, the two teams ahead of them Celtics and Heat are also pretty credible and have trade potential, you can say rating Cavs and Grizzlies over Heat/Celtics/Suns is a mistake but I liked the upside variance more, what if one of Mobley/JJJ is a top 5 MVP player next year, what if Ja Wick revenge tour Morant goes to next level game wise, or maybe a big breakout for Garland or Bane, etc.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Any reason you’re higher on the Warriors (or are these sportsbook odds)? I think they run the same core back for the most part - so it seems from reports and speculation - and fare better with health and getting GP2, Wiggins, Steph all (hopefully) more playing time. Hard for me to see them near the top dog level atm though, could very well be wrong and have no problem walking back if so.

They still have one of THE guys which I thought was the most important thing to be rated high, that's that's why I didn't put the Sixers lower than 4 as well as the year of Embiid in the playoffs is at least possible (the fact that Doncic's team isn't even top 10 shows what a mess Mavs are), it doesn't seem unreasonable they could put it together chemistry wise like 2022 again and have young players finally deliver. Them vs Bucks is close but Bucks have to deal with free agency and even if they keep everyone I think one of Middleton/Holiday/Lopez could pass their prime soon.

I get being skeptical but Suns at 10 is crazy lol

Maybe, the two teams ahead of them Celtics and Heat are also pretty credible and have trade potential, you can say rating Cavs and Grizzlies over Heat/Celtics/Suns is a mistake but I liked the upside variance more, what if one of Mobley/JJJ is a top 5 MVP player next year, what if Ja Wick revenge tour Morant goes to next level game wise, or maybe a big breakout for Garland or Bane, etc.

I feel with the warriors, it’s hard to see them being particularly good. I’d put a healthy memphis ahead of them for sure, a Lakers team that has injuries to both their best guys beat them in 6, and I don’t even know if I think they’re better than the Suns team last year never mind this year

[rk2023]

Any thoughts, predictions, expectations for Wembanyama heading into the summer / into next year? I, myself, are very excited to see it all unfold and see him / the Spurs kick things off tomorrow night; Prospect LBJ was well before my time as a basketball fan / viewer (as a millenium baby, i'm much younger than other PC board members), so this is the very first player of my lifetime I have seen with *this* much hype.

[Colbinii]

Any thoughts, predictions, expectations for Wembanyama heading into the summer / into next year? I, myself, are very excited to see it all unfold and see him / the Spurs kick things off tomorrow night; Prospect LBJ was well before my time as a basketball fan / viewer (as a millenium baby, i'm much younger than other PC board members), so this is the very first player of my lifetime I have seen with *this* much hype.

Yeah--you are going to see a player who has done everything in his life to prepare for being the best basketball player in the world.

-He learned how to speak english without an accent at a young age [early teens] specifically to be successful in the NBA
-He cares for his body like LeBron has been doing for 10-15+ years

You are going to hear a lot of stories about how much he wants to be the best and he is going to be as well-spoken as LeBron was a teenager--only better.

He really is the closest thing to LeBron as a prospect we have ever seen.

Paolo, Cade and ANT never were remotely close to this [in fact it wasn't guaranteed any would be #1 unanimously]. Zion had all-nba to MVP level hype where as long as he was healthy he would be a Top 10 player and that has been true as he has been unbelievable when healthy. Fultz, Simmons, Towns, Wiggins, Bennett didn't have MVP level hype. AD had a lot of hype [less than Zion] and clearly lived up to it. Kyrie, Wall, Griffin, Rose never had this hype and all had questions [but this was a good run of PG prospects]. Oden was seen as a generational big man. Bargnani, Bogut and Howard were all below AD very clearly in terms of hype.

So, when you look at the prospects since LeBron, Zion, Oden and AD were arguably the best [certainly the best big men prospects] and two of them lived up to the hype while Oden was always injured.

[rk2023]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Interesting

[MartinToVaught]

Hope Morris is happier with his "role" elsewhere, since getting 30 guaranteed minutes per game in LA despite being the worst player on the team apparently wasn't good enough for him. Just the thought of no longer having to watch him slowly matriculate down the court like Shaq on the Celtics every game makes me a little more optimistic about next season than I was yesterday.

Only thing that tempers my excitement is the fact that Brogdon is always out with an injury, which is a running theme with the Clippers.

[Colbinii]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Interesting

So...

Boston out: Malcolm Brogdon, Gallinari, Pritchard, 2024 BOS 1st [Top 5 protected in 2024 and 2025, 2 2nds in 2026]
Boston in: KP

Los Angeles out: Morris, Coffey, #30
Los Angeles In: Brogdon

Washington out: KP
Washington in: Morris, Gallinari, Pritchard, Coffey, #30, 2024 BOS 1st [Top 5 protected in 2024 and 2025, 2 2nds in 2026]

[eminence]

I like the Wizards reset so far this offseason. Beal/KP weren't taking you anywhere, even just some late 1sts is not bad return for a guy with a PO and a guy with a NTC.

[Colbinii]

I like the Wizards reset so far this offseason. Beal/KP weren't taking you anywhere, even just some late 1sts is not bad return for a guy with a PO and a guy with a NTC.

Yup--Beal had no value [evidenced by the return].

KP was traded for Bertans/2nds, his value is re-couped and then some.

Kuzma looking like Dennis Schroeder, thinking he was getting the bag but at this rate he may end up getting closer to the MLE than to 20+ AAV.