RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread

[penbeast0]

Hard not to see Marion as having better teammates. Nash is about the ideal PG for a player of his type. He had Amare and a bunch of shooting wings as well, though when Amare went out for the year in 2006, they were just as effective using Kurt Thomas and Boris Diaw and still played well and went to the WCF when Kurt Thomas went down as well.

[Owly]

Hard not to see Marion as having better teammates. Nash is about the ideal PG for a player of his type. He had Amare and a bunch of shooting wings as well, though when Amare went out for the year in 2006, they were just as effective using Kurt Thomas and Boris Diaw and still played well and went to the WCF when Kurt Thomas went down as well.

Sorry, think there's a wires crossed thing here. I was wondering who you had in mind with regard to ...

chucker who called his own number consistently when he had better teammates

[penbeast0]

I think as a quick rough, you can look at team TS% for each team he was on during his career and you will see that he was usually below team average efficiency as a scorer, sometime well below. For example, in his highest efficiency year (2007), all the other main starters were more efficient than Baron. When that's the case and you are shooting a lot (and Baron shot a lot of 3's or long 2's early in the clock), it makes sense to look to pass the ball rather than shoot.

[Owly]

I think as a quick rough, you can look at team TS% for each team he was on during his career and you will see that he was usually below team average efficiency as a scorer, sometime well below. For example, in his highest efficiency year (2007), all the other main starters were more efficient than Baron. When that's the case and you are shooting a lot (and Baron shot a lot of 3's or long 2's early in the clock), it makes sense to look to pass the ball rather than shoot.

Intended last pass on this one as it was intended as a back on forth but just curiosity on who you had in mind (nobody was popping for me for prime Baron, but I didn't check year by year).

As to the above
- This just feels like a repetition of his TS% isn't great, which is certainly true and per previous posts I don't love that in reasonably high volume shooting pg but ...

- So he's lower accuracy than teammates ... in theory, in an ideal world your high accuracy guys get more shots ... but it's not a given that they can manufacture those marginal extra shots (or more accurately that if they have to, then they'll do so at their typical accuracy, or at an accuracy better than Baron, or that Baron's exploring weaker avenues for himself doesn't open up stuff on other trips down ... granted he had a quick trigger on his 3-ball). In Baron's case in particular (and focusing on '07) this is most strongly represented by Biedriņš. Yes it would be great if you could get more circa .600 TS% shots. But he's assisted on .716 of his twos (or his shots in his case) where the figure for Davis is less than half that for the next lowest rotation Warrior (.202 versus .418 for a half season of Stephen Jackson, then Ellis .449, everyone else above .500).
For what it's worth the impact stuff might seem to support him here too. Googlesites PI RAPM for the year (which I'm informed does include playoffs) has his ORAPM as +7.5, second only to Steven Nash's +7.9. They are (per reference) at a 110.4 Ortg with him on and a 103.0 with him off.


- Fwiw '01 is a marginally better year for regular season, league relative efficiency at 99 TS+, versus 98 in 2007. '07 is though at a significantly higher usage (26.5 rather than 19.2).

[Doctor MJ]

Chiming in other other guys listed here:

Odom, Baron, Francis - all guys from the 1999 draft. I’ve seen enough data to conclude that Baron was the reliable impact guy of the bunch and see him pretty cleanly over Francis.

Hard to see the ideas of "Baron Davis" and "reliable" this close together though Stevie Franchise isn't a top 100 candidate for me either. He began his career in Charlotte with 3 strong seasons with good size, playmaking, and defense, though streaky inconsistent shooting. He then started the injuries and issues with management that characterized his career arguably even more than his inarguable talent did. To be fair, his biggest problems were with Donald Sterling in LAC and that's certainly an easy fight to pick. His game never really developed, continuing to chuck shots with high usage and low efficiency (career 24.6 usage, .502 ts%) though when he got hot, he could look like an all-star and did at times, particularly in the big playoff upset.

However, I just can't see a .500ts% chucker who called his own number consistently when he had better teammates, missed a lot of games, and never could manage to stay 5 years with a single team being called . . . . reliable.

Marion is probably 50-100 spots higher on my all-time list. There's a legit question of whether Marion can compare to the likes of Rasheed or Larry Nance, but Baron, despite his RAPM numbers, was just not that guy.

I understand the perception that Davis was unreliable and calling attention to his shooting efficiency, but the guy was a rock by +/- data.

My my bkref based count of RS+PS data, Davis led his team in +/- in:

'00-01
'01-02
'02-03
'03-04
'04-05
'06-07
'07-08

That's 7 times in 8 seasons. Only other guys we have on record doing this are LeBron, Dirk, CP, Duncan, Nash & Shaq.

This is all the more stunning given that Davis has the reputation of coasting during the regular season, which dominates this metric. We have plenty of indicators that he does indeed get better in the playoffs - seeming to settle less for jumpers - but even with the low efficiency of the regular season, Davis impacted the game as a matter of course that not a lot of players have.

Marion by contrast only led his team twice, and by my quick count, was only in his team's Top 3 five times.

I can still see arguments for Marion over Baron of course, but yeah, if you want the consistent impact guy between the two, it's pretty clearly Baron from the data I've seen.

[WestGOAT]

Can I vote too?

[Owly]

Can I vote too?

[edited to remove duplicate of quoted post]
Will depend on project admin (Doc MJ).

General precedent is take part, make the posts but your vote may not officially be counted right away (assume the objective is to stop people getting one or two target guys in without any real commitment, or similar).

I think sometimes in previous projects respected/"tenured" posters may have been allowed straight in. I've not noticed it this time, but then I haven't been watching for it.

In any case I'd suggest going in and acting like a voter - at worst you're showing willing and starting the probationary period. You could quote-tag Doc and note that it may not be an official vote to make things clear/easy.

[Doctor MJ]

Can I vote too?

Hi WestGOAT. Participate for a bit first and if you're solid I'd love to add more energy into this later stage of the project.

[OhayoKD]

Can I vote too?

Hi WestGOAT. Participate for a bit first and if you're solid I'd love to add more energy into this later stage of the project.

Haven't they already participated?

[Doctor MJ]

Can I vote too?

Hi WestGOAT. Participate for a bit first and if you're solid I'd love to add more energy into this later stage of the project.

Haven't they already participated?

Did they? I don't recall.

[OhayoKD]

Hi WestGOAT. Participate for a bit first and if you're solid I'd love to add more energy into this later stage of the project.

Haven't they already participated?

Did they? I don't recall.

They were contributing as early as thread #32
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=108509218#p108509218

[Doctor MJ]

Haven't they already participated?

Did they? I don't recall.

They were contributing as early as thread #32
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=108509218#p108509218

I see. Well if show me they're back into it now, I'll expect to add them to the voter pool.

[CodeBreaker]

After checking the Top100 from the previous years.. what did Kareem achieve in 2023 to be able to get ahead of Jordan?

[OhayoKD]

After checking the Top100 from the previous years.. what did Kareem achieve in 2023 to be able to get ahead of Jordan?

He successfully brainwashed some of us into thinking his peak was as good or better as MJ's:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107462472#p107462472

[CodeBreaker]

After checking the Top100 from the previous years.. what did Kareem achieve in 2023 to be able to get ahead of Jordan?

He successfully brainwashed some of us into thinking his peak was as good or better as MJ's:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107462472#p107462472

"At their best" then we should definitely look into the Playoffs where all-time great players switch their extra gear.

Peak Kareem: 12.2 BPM
Peak Jordan 14.6 BPM (capped off with a championship)

[OhayoKD]

After checking the Top100 from the previous years.. what did Kareem achieve in 2023 to be able to get ahead of Jordan?

He successfully brainwashed some of us into thinking his peak was as good or better as MJ's:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107462472#p107462472

"At their best" then we should definitely look into the Playoffs where all-time great players switch their extra gear.

Playoff-specific comparison was made at the bottom of the post I linked.


Conclusion: 72, 74, amd 77 are all probably better than any Jordan run. No real reason to assume 71 is worse than 91 if the "capped it off with a title" component is important. Of course the argument there was based on how those players discernibly impacted winning...

Peak Kareem: 12.2 BPm Peak Jordan 14.6 BPM (capped off with a championship)

Oh I see, we're using made-up formulas now.

My turn:
https://web.archive.org/web/20150206043540/http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/1991.html

Jordan not even top 3 in his own league, sadge

[penbeast0]

Let's keep it about the subject and quit being snarky please.

[eminence]

.

Doc, mind if I jump back in the voting pool starting in #75?

The pro-Davies agenda has arrived (I kid, though I do think I will nominate him in the top 100).

[Doctor MJ]

.

Doc, mind if I jump back in the voting pool starting in #75?

The pro-Davies agenda has arrived (I kid, though I do think I will nominate him in the top 100).

Yeah go ahead. In general once you're on the voter list, you're in for the rest of the project.

Please do try not to just jump in for one guy though - I'd really appreciate having you around until we reach the finish line.

[eminence]

.

Doc, mind if I jump back in the voting pool starting in #75?

The pro-Davies agenda has arrived (I kid, though I do think I will nominate him in the top 100).

Yeah go ahead. In general once you're on the voter list, you're in for the rest of the project.

Please do try not to just jump in for one guy though - I'd really appreciate having you around until we reach the finish line.

Ahh, no worries there, just poking a bit of fun at the topic of the moment.