RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread

[penbeast0]

Being down on Marion for wanting out of Phoenix is consistent with your criteria you have explained before. However, taking Sheed as the less bad actor after he whined his way out of Washington by refusing to play C (competing with Chris Webber for the least mature title), then led the Jailblazer trashfire of a team, combined with his tendency toward bonehead techs and the drug issues (pot, not cocaine as far as I know), I don't see it. Both Rasheed Wallace and Shawn Marion were terrific players and I have no problem with their getting votes; both had off court issues and I have no problem with anyone not voting for them; but I see Wallace as clearly the lower intangibles guy of the two especially considering the amount of years Rasheed was a problem (most of them) v. the amount of years Marion complained (a small part of his career).

[eminence]

Tatum is certainly a guy I'd be considering, guy's a stud and broadly underappreciated. I don't really get why.

My favorite metric for player ranking (it's not perfect, we all know it, don't be that guy) is mid-term RAPM x Possessions.

Using Cheema's 5 year stints (so only '97-'21). Guys who haven't been inducted who score over 3000 (43 players meet that bar).

(RAPM+2)/100 x Possessions = VORP over a 5 year period

Rank. Player VORP 5years

13. Lowry 4397 15-19
17. Sheed 4100 00-04
19. Marion 4063 03-07
23. Dame 3816 17-21
25. George 3709 17-21
26. Carter 3688 06-10
34. Odom 3502 06-10
35. Holiday 3359 17-21
38. Baron 3300 01-05
39. Korver 3259 12-16
40. Gobert 3212 17-21
43. Francis 3163 01-05

LeBron is #1 at 6998 for '12-'16. Duncan, Steph, KG, Dray, Shaq, Kobe, KD, Harden, Dirk rounding out the top 10.

[eminence]

Two other modern guys I'm interested to see if gain traction are Tony Parker and Klay.

If either had played in any era that wasn't this one they'd be shoe-ins for me, but their impact stuff is just completely underwhelming for top 100 guys.

[Doctor MJ]

Being down on Marion for wanting out of Phoenix is consistent with your criteria you have explained before. However, taking Sheed as the less bad actor after he whined his way out of Washington by refusing to play C (competing with Chris Webber for the least mature title), then led the Jailblazer trashfire of a team, combined with his tendency toward bonehead techs and the drug issues (pot, not cocaine as far as I know), I don't see it. Both Rasheed Wallace and Shawn Marion were terrific players and I have no problem with their getting votes; both had off court issues and I have no problem with anyone not voting for them; but I see Wallace as clearly the lower intangibles guy of the two especially considering the amount of years Rasheed was a problem (most of them) v. the amount of years Marion complained (a small part of his career).

For me the difference is:

1. Sheed was an all-star level impactor longer and in multiple places.

2. Sheed was toxic primarily in a situation where there was an entire team full of issues, while Marion was the malcontent in a good culture.

3. Marion was toxic for ego reasons.


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[Doctor MJ]

Tatum is certainly a guy I'd be considering, guy's a stud and broadly underappreciated. I don't really get why.

My favorite metric for player ranking (it's not perfect, we all know it, don't be that guy) is mid-term RAPM x Possessions.

Using Cheema's 5 year stints (so only '97-'21). Guys who haven't been inducted who score over 3000 (43 players meet that bar).

(RAPM+2)/100 x Possessions = VORP over a 5 year period

Rank. Player VORP 5years

13. Lowry 4397 15-19
17. Sheed 4100 00-04
19. Marion 4063 03-07
23. Dame 3816 17-21
25. George 3709 17-21
26. Carter 3688 06-10
34. Odom 3502 06-10
35. Holiday 3359 17-21
38. Baron 3300 01-05
39. Korver 3259 12-16
40. Gobert 3212 17-21
43. Francis 3163 01-05

LeBron is #1 at 6998 for '12-'16. Duncan, Steph, KG, Dray, Shaq, Kobe, KD, Harden, Dirk rounding out the top 10.

Yeah Tatum is very much under appreciated and the thing is, I feel like I’m part of the crowd on this. I’ll point to his impact numbers to emphasize the impact he’s had…but I don’t really trust as much as other guys against the toughest opponents.

I do think there are things going on with his game that add more value as a matter of course than we tend to be able to notice, and that deserves emphasis in our analysis, but the Celtic offense has a history of devolving into inadequate individualism against great defense.

On the list you supply which I appreciate you posting:

- I think Lowry’s a guy who would easily make my list if his entire career were like his best times in Toronto. But his time before and after Toronto doesn’t amount to much, and back before Kawhi, Lowry had an awful tendency to have anxiety issues in the playoffs for the Raptors.

- Sheed and Marion I already discussed in my last post, but I’ll say that I probably would put Lowry ahead of Marion.

- Dame’s in a rough place right now I think because of the fact that he got traded to a Win or Bust place and it seems like he made them worse. Fundamentally, I think it’s not necessarily an overreaction to see going from Jrue to Dame as a downgrade because we’re seeing that the Buck D isn’t the sure thing many thought. I don’t want to overreact, and I think it’s still most likely the Bucks get further in the playoffs than last year, but when you push to get traded to a contender, and we see your warts that would be a challenge for any contender to compensate for, it’s going to complicate your case.

- On George, as I’ve said, I don’t see his career to amounting to all that much yet…but I’m glad others are championing him because his consistent 2-way career shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.


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[AEnigma]

back before Kawhi, Lowry had an awful tendency to have anxiety issues in the playoffs for the Raptors.

That is more applicable to Demar. Lowry just had significant shooting injuries in 2015 and 2017. Injuries matter, but they are separate from “anxiety”. When healthy he was on balance still an all-star level scorer.

[penbeast0]

Tatum is certainly a guy I'd be considering, guy's a stud and broadly underappreciated. I don't really get why.

My favorite metric for player ranking (it's not perfect, we all know it, don't be that guy) is mid-term RAPM x Possessions.

Using Cheema's 5 year stints (so only '97-'21). Guys who haven't been inducted who score over 3000 (43 players meet that bar).

(RAPM+2)/100 x Possessions = VORP over a 5 year period

Rank. Player VORP 5years

13. Lowry 4397 15-19
17. Sheed 4100 00-04
19. Marion 4063 03-07
23. Dame 3816 17-21
25. George 3709 17-21
26. Carter 3688 06-10
34. Odom 3502 06-10
35. Holiday 3359 17-21
38. Baron 3300 01-05
39. Korver 3259 12-16
40. Gobert 3212 17-21
43. Francis 3163 01-05

LeBron is #1 at 6998 for '12-'16. Duncan, Steph, KG, Dray, Shaq, Kobe, KD, Harden, Dirk rounding out the top 10.

I'm confused what this stat, that you don't list Tatum's score in that I can see, has to do with your argument that we should be considering Tatum.

[penbeast0]

Being down on Marion for wanting out of Phoenix is consistent with your criteria you have explained before. However, taking Sheed as the less bad actor after he whined his way out of Washington by refusing to play C (competing with Chris Webber for the least mature title), then led the Jailblazer trashfire of a team, combined with his tendency toward bonehead techs and the drug issues (pot, not cocaine as far as I know), I don't see it. Both Rasheed Wallace and Shawn Marion were terrific players and I have no problem with their getting votes; both had off court issues and I have no problem with anyone not voting for them; but I see Wallace as clearly the lower intangibles guy of the two especially considering the amount of years Rasheed was a problem (most of them) v. the amount of years Marion complained (a small part of his career).

For me the difference is:

1. Sheed was an all-star level impactor longer and in multiple places.

2. Sheed was toxic primarily in a situation where there was an entire team full of issues, while Marion was the malcontent in a good culture.

3. Marion was toxic for ego reasons.


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For me, it breaks down:

Sheed was toxic in Washington, then again in Portland.
Sheed let his immaturity show on the court as evidenced by his large numbers of DQs
Marion only complained/was toxic for about 1-3 years that I remember while Sheed was toxic for almost 9 years (more than half his career).
Complaining about touches is not as bad as drug busts (marijuana).

[eminence]

Tatum is certainly a guy I'd be considering, guy's a stud and broadly underappreciated. I don't really get why.

My favorite metric for player ranking (it's not perfect, we all know it, don't be that guy) is mid-term RAPM x Possessions.

Using Cheema's 5 year stints (so only '97-'21). Guys who haven't been inducted who score over 3000 (43 players meet that bar).

(RAPM+2)/100 x Possessions = VORP over a 5 year period

Rank. Player VORP 5years

13. Lowry 4397 15-19
17. Sheed 4100 00-04
19. Marion 4063 03-07
23. Dame 3816 17-21
25. George 3709 17-21
26. Carter 3688 06-10
34. Odom 3502 06-10
35. Holiday 3359 17-21
38. Baron 3300 01-05
39. Korver 3259 12-16
40. Gobert 3212 17-21
43. Francis 3163 01-05

LeBron is #1 at 6998 for '12-'16. Duncan, Steph, KG, Dray, Shaq, Kobe, KD, Harden, Dirk rounding out the top 10.

I'm confused what this stat, that you don't list Tatum's score in that I can see, has to do with your argument that we should be considering Tatum.

I should have put them in two separate posts, just two separate thoughts there.

Tatum does do well by similar metrics, doesn't in this one because it only has his first 4 years (vs 5 year runs for everyone else).

[eminence]

Yeah Tatum is very much under appreciated and the thing is, I feel like I’m part of the crowd on this. I’ll point to his impact numbers to emphasize the impact he’s had…but I don’t really trust as much as other guys against the toughest opponents.

I do think there are things going on with his game that add more value as a matter of course than we tend to be able to notice, and that deserves emphasis in our analysis, but the Celtic offense has a history of devolving into inadequate individualism against great defense.

On the list you supply which I appreciate you posting:

- I think Lowry’s a guy who would easily make my list if his entire career were like his best times in Toronto. But his time before and after Toronto doesn’t amount to much, and back before Kawhi, Lowry had an awful tendency to have anxiety issues in the playoffs for the Raptors.

- Sheed and Marion I already discussed in my last post, but I’ll say that I probably would put Lowry ahead of Marion.

- Dame’s in a rough place right now I think because of the fact that he got traded to a Win or Bust place and it seems like he made them worse. Fundamentally, I think it’s not necessarily an overreaction to see going from Jrue to Dame as a downgrade because we’re seeing that the Buck D isn’t the sure thing many thought. I don’t want to overreact, and I think it’s still most likely the Bucks get further in the playoffs than last year, but when you push to get traded to a contender, and we see your warts that would be a challenge for any contender to compensate for, it’s going to complicate your case.

- On George, as I’ve said, I don’t see his career to amounting to all that much yet…but I’m glad others are championing him because his consistent 2-way career shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.

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Agreeing with a lot of those warts pointed out, that feels like kind of the task at this point on the list, find the guy whose warts you mind the least. None of them make me think, 'oh my gosh, how haven't y'all voted in ???'.

This next stretch of 3 years will be very important in the story of Dame/Jrue for sure. I appreciate that we have the direct replacement there.

Conley is probably a guy I should've mentioned as comparable to some of the other guards as well, I certainly don't think Lowry deserves to be a tier up from him, though I think I prefer Lowry.

Side-note: Though I'm talking about the modern guys, I don't feel more than a handful or two of them should make it onto the list, plenty of slots left for older guys too.

[Doctor MJ]

back before Kawhi, Lowry had an awful tendency to have anxiety issues in the playoffs for the Raptors.

That is more applicable to Demar. Lowry just had significant shooting injuries in 2015 and 2017. Injuries matter, but they are separate from “anxiety”. When healthy he was on balance still an all-star level scorer.

Well I’m definitely not letting DeRozan off the hook - I literally rank his career below Danny Green’s so way out of the 100 - but I’m not talking about a general Raptor disappointment in the playoffs. Lowry literally left a playoff game for mental reasons at one point. It was pretty far from normal, and frankly hard for me to let go because I know he also had defiance issues that made him hard to coach. If you’re going to be headstrong, I expect your head to be strong.


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[Doctor MJ]

Being down on Marion for wanting out of Phoenix is consistent with your criteria you have explained before. However, taking Sheed as the less bad actor after he whined his way out of Washington by refusing to play C (competing with Chris Webber for the least mature title), then led the Jailblazer trashfire of a team, combined with his tendency toward bonehead techs and the drug issues (pot, not cocaine as far as I know), I don't see it. Both Rasheed Wallace and Shawn Marion were terrific players and I have no problem with their getting votes; both had off court issues and I have no problem with anyone not voting for them; but I see Wallace as clearly the lower intangibles guy of the two especially considering the amount of years Rasheed was a problem (most of them) v. the amount of years Marion complained (a small part of his career).

For me the difference is:

1. Sheed was an all-star level impactor longer and in multiple places.

2. Sheed was toxic primarily in a situation where there was an entire team full of issues, while Marion was the malcontent in a good culture.

3. Marion was toxic for ego reasons.


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For me, it breaks down:

Sheed was toxic in Washington, then again in Portland.
Sheed let his immaturity show on the court as evidenced by his large numbers of DQs
Marion only complained/was toxic for about 1-3 years that I remember while Sheed was toxic for almost 9 years (more than half his career).
Complaining about touches is not as bad as drug busts (marijuana).

Understandable perspective.

Philosophical pet peeves aside, one thing here is that you saw the Washington situation in a lot more detail than I did.


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[Doctor MJ]

Yeah Tatum is very much under appreciated and the thing is, I feel like I’m part of the crowd on this. I’ll point to his impact numbers to emphasize the impact he’s had…but I don’t really trust as much as other guys against the toughest opponents.

I do think there are things going on with his game that add more value as a matter of course than we tend to be able to notice, and that deserves emphasis in our analysis, but the Celtic offense has a history of devolving into inadequate individualism against great defense.

On the list you supply which I appreciate you posting:

- I think Lowry’s a guy who would easily make my list if his entire career were like his best times in Toronto. But his time before and after Toronto doesn’t amount to much, and back before Kawhi, Lowry had an awful tendency to have anxiety issues in the playoffs for the Raptors.

- Sheed and Marion I already discussed in my last post, but I’ll say that I probably would put Lowry ahead of Marion.

- Dame’s in a rough place right now I think because of the fact that he got traded to a Win or Bust place and it seems like he made them worse. Fundamentally, I think it’s not necessarily an overreaction to see going from Jrue to Dame as a downgrade because we’re seeing that the Buck D isn’t the sure thing many thought. I don’t want to overreact, and I think it’s still most likely the Bucks get further in the playoffs than last year, but when you push to get traded to a contender, and we see your warts that would be a challenge for any contender to compensate for, it’s going to complicate your case.

- On George, as I’ve said, I don’t see his career to amounting to all that much yet…but I’m glad others are championing him because his consistent 2-way career shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.

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Agreeing with a lot of those warts pointed out, that feels like kind of the task at this point on the list, find the guy whose warts you mind the least. None of them make me think, 'oh my gosh, how haven't y'all voted in ???'.

This next stretch of 3 years will be very important in the story of Dame/Jrue for sure. I appreciate that we have the direct replacement there.

Conley is probably a guy I should've mentioned as comparable to some of the other guards as well, I certainly don't think Lowry deserves to be a tier up from him, though I think I prefer Lowry.

Side-note: Though I'm talking about the modern guys, I don't feel more than a handful or two of them should make it onto the list, plenty of slots left for older guys too.

Yeah something I tend to think about with reputation is that there tend to moments where observers recognize that a lot of new information is coming in, and that can then re-open doors of analysis.

Had Dame stayed the good soldier in Portland to retirement that would have likely prevented the possibility of him jumping up to higher tiers, but it wouldn’t have (potentially) left an aftertaste of his one-dimensionality being incompatible with contention.

These guys who chase rings tend to think about the upside of a chip rather than the downside of being a disappointment in a place where they haven’t earned institutional gold will.

Re: Jrue. I feel like he’s really really unlikely to make the 100 this time, but if things go right in Boston in years to come, he might gain entry next time.

Re: Conley. Very interesting case, and the comparison with Lowry is a critical one. Conley, after all, is the guy Memphis chose as their franchise point guard over Lowry, and I don’t think they ever regretted that. Add in that post-Grizz Conley has been great on two teams now while Lowry really fell back into obscurity and I think I probably would draft Conley over Lowry were I picking between the two as prospects.

But Lowry had the higher highs.

Last I’m with you that most of the guys who I expect to champion from this point on are from earlier generations, and I don’t want to imply otherwise simply because I’m discussing these more recent players.


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[AEnigma]

back before Kawhi, Lowry had an awful tendency to have anxiety issues in the playoffs for the Raptors.

That is more applicable to Demar. Lowry just had significant shooting injuries in 2015 and 2017. Injuries matter, but they are separate from “anxiety”. When healthy he was on balance still an all-star level scorer.

Well I’m definitely not letting DeRozan off the hook - I literally rank his career below Danny Green’s so way out of the 100 - but I’m not talking about a general Raptor disappointment in the playoffs. Lowry literally left a playoff game for mental reasons at one point. It was pretty far from normal, and frankly hard for me to let go because I know he also had defiance issues that made him hard to coach. If you’re going to be headstrong, I expect your head to be strong.

You called it “an awful tendency”. This is the only bit I could find about what you are referencing. If this is the game you mean, I think you need to substantially reassess your approach to player telepathy.

[Doctor MJ]

Chiming in other other guys listed here:

Odom, Baron, Francis - all guys from the 1999 draft. I’ve seen enough data to conclude that Baron was the reliable impact guy of the bunch and see him pretty cleanly over Francis. Odom’s something of a trickier case because I think you can make an argument that once Gasol came to LA, Odom was the most spectacular plus minus impact guy on the Lakers and I don’t think it was a mere mirage…but Odom was a mentally talented but fragile player, prone to disappearing on the court if not comfortable.

I’m inclined to say that when considering the top players from the 1999 draft, after Ginobili, Baron’s the guy from this bunch I’d be looking to side with, and I do think he has a strong case over Marion as well. I’ll also give a shout out to AK who I thought was a marvelous talent. I’m a bit lower on guys like Brand and Rip though I do understand those who side with Brand over all of these guys.

Korver - I would consider him to be the 4th player from the 2003 draft below the Heatles - in other words, above Melo. I have considered championing him for the 100, but I’ve never quite been able to get there.

Gobert - I feel like he’s definitely going to make the 100 this time and I don’t object even if I’m lower on him than most in the PC community. Among current players not voted in yet, aside from Tatum, George has a strong case.


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[Doctor MJ]

That is more applicable to Demar. Lowry just had significant shooting injuries in 2015 and 2017. Injuries matter, but they are separate from “anxiety”. When healthy he was on balance still an all-star level scorer.

Well I’m definitely not letting DeRozan off the hook - I literally rank his career below Danny Green’s so way out of the 100 - but I’m not talking about a general Raptor disappointment in the playoffs. Lowry literally left a playoff game for mental reasons at one point. It was pretty far from normal, and frankly hard for me to let go because I know he also had defiance issues that made him hard to coach. If you’re going to be headstrong, I expect your head to be strong.

You called it “an awful tendency”. This is the only bit I could find about what you are referencing. If this is the game you mean, I think you need to substantially reassess your approach to player telepathy.

I’m not in a place to look up data right now, but my recollection is that you’ll find some real no-show games from Lowry intermixed with times talking about anxiety.

We’re not talking about a Jerry West type situation where he got physically sick and then came in and torched the other team as a matter of course.


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[AEnigma]

Oh, so your citation is even less than I thought.

Speaking for myself, I tend not to conclude that bad shooting performances are an inherent result of anxiety suddenly rearing its head in that specific game, nor do I penalise players who are open about recognising the pressure on them to perform — especially when such questions will naturally pop up after games where the player did not perform well.

Say we entertain your speculation though. I would then postulate that Lowry seems to struggle with “playoff anxiety”… in the first round. He was good in 2014. 2015 he was demonstrably injured, but sure, anxiety can be present on top of an injury. In 2016 he played worse against the Pacers than against the Heat and Cavaliers. In 2017 he played worse against the Bucks than against the Cavaliers. In 2018 he played worse against the Wizards than against the Cavaliers. In 2019 his worst series was against the Magic. In 2020 he played worse against the Nets than he did against the Celtics…

So sounds like we have a ceiling raiser who is unreliable against ostensibly easy teams — maybe because of some crippling anxiety — but then against better teams and in later rounds finds the confidence to perform more to his expected standards. Is that the criticism you want to make?

[OhayoKD]

Extrapolating a player's personality heavily from minor events and using them in conjunction with highly expressive language for the sake of making sweeping psychiatric appraisals isn't a great approach imo.

[penbeast0]

Chiming in other other guys listed here:

Odom, Baron, Francis - all guys from the 1999 draft. I’ve seen enough data to conclude that Baron was the reliable impact guy of the bunch and see him pretty cleanly over Francis.

Hard to see the ideas of "Baron Davis" and "reliable" this close together though Stevie Franchise isn't a top 100 candidate for me either. He began his career in Charlotte with 3 strong seasons with good size, playmaking, and defense, though streaky inconsistent shooting. He then started the injuries and issues with management that characterized his career arguably even more than his inarguable talent did. To be fair, his biggest problems were with Donald Sterling in LAC and that's certainly an easy fight to pick. His game never really developed, continuing to chuck shots with high usage and low efficiency (career 24.6 usage, .502 ts%) though when he got hot, he could look like an all-star and did at times, particularly in the big playoff upset.

However, I just can't see a .500ts% chucker who called his own number consistently when he had better teammates, missed a lot of games, and never could manage to stay 5 years with a single team being called . . . . reliable.

Marion is probably 50-100 spots higher on my all-time list. There's a legit question of whether Marion can compare to the likes of Rasheed or Larry Nance, but Baron, despite his RAPM numbers, was just not that guy.

[Owly]

Chiming in other other guys listed here:

Odom, Baron, Francis - all guys from the 1999 draft. I’ve seen enough data to conclude that Baron was the reliable impact guy of the bunch and see him pretty cleanly over Francis.

Hard to see the ideas of "Baron Davis" and "reliable" this close together though Stevie Franchise isn't a top 100 candidate for me either. He began his career in Charlotte with 3 strong seasons with good size, playmaking, and defense, though streaky inconsistent shooting. He then started the injuries and issues with management that characterized his career arguably even more than his inarguable talent did. To be fair, his biggest problems were with Donald Sterling in LAC and that's certainly an easy fight to pick. His game never really developed, continuing to chuck shots with high usage and low efficiency (career 24.6 usage, .502 ts%) though when he got hot, he could look like an all-star and did at times, particularly in the big playoff upset.

However, I just can't see a .500ts% chucker who called his own number consistently when he had better teammates, missed a lot of games, and never could manage to stay 5 years with a single team being called . . . . reliable.

Marion is probably 50-100 spots higher on my all-time list. There's a legit question of whether Marion can compare to the likes of Rasheed or Larry Nance, but Baron, despite his RAPM numbers, was just not that guy.

I'm not a huge Baron advocate (though, for me, if one is hinging on playoffs to push Thomas or Olajuwon, Baron shows exceptional relative playoff performance - if I were more playoff orientated, I'd be more bullish one him).

That said: (impact stuff mostly otoh - checking reference for on-offs)
- I think reliable regards impact at the 3 players noted (all look strong by impact side stuff)
- From his 2nd to penultimate year his RS on-off in +7.4 with individual years never worse than +2.7.
Playoffs vary a little more - to be expected given small samples and very small off samples but overall are even (much) better being +17.3 for the same span (and 16.8 including rookie year). That impact signal is pretty consistent at a solidly high level.
- TS% is poor but ... 2 of his 3 highest fga seasons (2nd and 3rd, '04 and '02) come around the time league efficiency is iirc around its (semi-modern) nadir. So the raw number might be misleading. Fwiw, this number increased substantially in the playoffs.

fwiw I'm more positively predisposed towards Marion for that comp and am not all the way in on the negative character argument. I don't love inefficient, shot heavy pgs. Still, those inclined towards playoffs, impact measures and playoff impact measures could justify being aggressive on Davis.

I could also probably be persuaded that the gunner archetype led to a lot of people missing the boat on how good a defender he was.


Tangential but who are you thinking of regarding better teammates?