Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls

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lessthanjake
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Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#1 » by lessthanjake » Tue Aug 15, 2023 1:25 am

UPDATED FEBRUARY 7, 2024

We have various sources of on-off data for Michael Jordan. This thread is meant to compile them all in one place.

Here is a list of the different sources of on-off data for that we have for Jordan with the Bulls:

1. We have normal play-by-play data from the 1996-1997 and 1997-1998 regular season and playoffs, which we can find on Basketball Reference.

2. We have Pollack plus-minus data for the 1994-1995 and 1995-1996 regular seasons.

3. We have on-off data provided by Thinking Basketball, where Ben Taylor tracked on-off for Jordan’s playoff games from 1988 through 1996

4. We have Squared plus-minus data for portions of the 1984-1985, 1987-1988, 1990-1991, and 1992-1993 regular seasons, along with the entire 1984-1985 playoffs.

5. We have Djoker’s on-off tracking for Jordan in the 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990, and 1995 playoffs.

6. We have Dipper13’s on-off tracking for Jordan in the 1992 playoffs and a portion of the 1991-1992 regular season.

So let’s combine what we know. I will list data below, and will note which source each piece of data comes from and I’ll describe the methodology that I used to derive the data (as well as potential sources of error) at the bottom of the post.

Please note that, as of a January 2024 update of this post, the data in this post is in per-48-minute terms, rather than per-100-possession terms. Since there’s usually fewer than 100 possessions per game, on-off per 48 minutes should generally be lower than on-off per 100 possessions. So if you want to think about what these numbers would mean in per-100-possession terms, a good rule of thumb is probably to bump these values up a bit in your mind. An original version of this post tried to convert this stuff to per-100-possessions terms using Basketball-Reference’s pace estimations, but that inherently introduced some error (since basketball-reference only estimates pace, and the adjustment required assuming equal pace when a player was on and off the court), and it appears that those errors aren’t necessarily tiny, since applying this adjustment to plus-minus data for recent players often doesn’t really match basketball-reference’s on-off calculations for those same players. I’ve therefore decided to avoid this issue by putting the numbers in per-48-minute terms. Please keep that in mind.

Michael Jordan’s Per 48 Minutes On-Off Data

1984-1985

Regular Season (source: Squared data; 27 games):
- On: +2.20 (+47 in 1025 minutes)
- Off: -11.65 (-67 in 276 minutes)
- On-Off: +13.85

Playoffs (source: Squared data)
- On: +2.81 (+10 in 171 minutes)
- Off: -73.14 (-32 in 21 minutes)
- On-Off: +75.95

1985-1986

Playoffs (source: Djoker’s tracking)
- On: -7.47 (-21 in 135 minutes)
- Off: -50.53 (-20 in 19 minutes)
- On-Off: +43.06

1986-1987

Playoffs (source: Djoker’s tracking)
- On: -1.50 (-4 in 128 minutes)
- Off: -60.00 (-20 in 16 minutes)
- On-Off: +58.5

1987-1988

Regular Season (source: Squared data; 42 games)
- On: +5.65(+205 in 1742 minutes)
- Off: -17.14 (-105 in 294 minutes)
- On-Off: +22.79

Playoffs (source: Thinking Basketball)
- On: -3.67 (-33 in 431.96 minutes)
- Off: -7.99 (-8 in 48.04 minutes)
- On-Off: +4.32

1988-1989

Playoffs (source: Djoker’s tracking)
- On: +3.41 (+51 in 718 minutes)
- Off: -20.89 (-47 in 108 minutes)
- On-Off: +24.30

1989-1990

Playoffs (source: Djoker’s tracking)
- On: +7.12 (+100 in 674 minutes)
- Off: -22.98 (-45 in 94 minutes)
- On-Off: +30.10

1990-1991

Regular Season (source: Squared data; 56 games)
- On: +10.03 (+432 in 2067 minutes)
- Off: -7.09 (-94 in 636 minutes)
- On-Off: +17.12

Playoffs (source: Thinking Basketball)
- On: +13.54 (+196 in 694.623 minutes)
- Off: +1.14 (+3 in 126.377 minutes)
- On-Off: +12.40

1991-1992

Regular Season (source: Dipper13’s tracking; 55 games, including 2 games Jordan missed)
- On: +12.56 (+554 in 2118 minutes)
- Off: -10.78 (-124 in 552 minutes)
- On-Off: +23.34

Playoffs (source: Dipper13’s tracking)
- On: +6.68 (+128 in 920 minutes)
- Off: +2.72 (+8 in 141 minutes)
- On-Off: +3.96

1992-1993

Regular Season (source: Squared data; 63 games)
- On: +9.42 (+489 in 2490 minutes)
- Off: -6.44 (-75 in 559 minutes)
- On-Off: +15.86

Playoffs (source: Thinking Basketball)
- On: +7.33 (+120 in 786.29 minutes)
- Off: -3.07 (-9 in 140.71 minutes)
- On-Off: +10.40

1994-1995

Regular Season (source: Pollack plus-minus data; note: includes only the games after Jordan came back)
- On: +6.54 (+91 in 668 minutes)
- Off: +8.16 (+26 in 153 minutes)
- On-Off: -1.62

Playoffs (source: Djoker’s tracking)
- On: -1.60 (-14 in 420 minutes)
- Off: +17.72 (+24 in 65 minutes)
- On-Off: -19.32

1995-1996

Regular Season (source: Pollack plus-minus data)
- On: +15.22 (+980 in 3090 minutes)
- Off: +1.35 (+24 in 856 minutes)
- On-Off: +13.87

Playoffs (source: Thinking Basketball)
- On: +13.06 (+199 in 731.16 minutes)
- Off: -3.13 (-9 in 137.84 minutes)
- On-Off: +16.19

1996-1997

Regular Season (source: Basketball Reference via Statsmuse)
- On: +12.64 (+818 in 3106 minutes)
- Off: +3.89 (+68 in 840 minutes)
- On-Off: +8.75

Playoffs (source: Basketball Reference via Thinking Basketball)
- On: +8.12 (+136 in 804 minutes)
- Off: -13.78 (-31 in 108 minutes)
- On-Off: +21.90

1997-1998

Regular Season (source: Basketball Reference via Statsmuse)
- On: +9.02 (+598 in 3181 minutes)
- Off: -0.91 (-15 in 790 minutes)
- On-Off: +9.93

Playoffs (source: Basketball Reference via Thinking Basketball)
- On: +8.70 (+158 in 872 minutes)
- Off: -3.62 (-11 in 146 minutes)
- On-Off: +12.32

Single-year playoff on-off is very low sample size data, so it’s good to try to look at as large a sample size as possible. Fortunately, since we have data for every single playoffs Jordan played in, we can also derive from all this an estimate of Jordan’s playoff on-off for his entire career.

Michael Jordan Career Playoff On-Off Per 48 Minutes

- On: +6.58 (+1026 in 7486.033 minutes)
- Off: -8.08 (-197 in 1170.967 minutes)
- On-Off per 48 minutes: +14.66

Between all this regular season and playoff data, we also have on-off data for 683 games out of the 1,109 games Jordan played for the Bulls (61.59% of his Bulls games). Below is the on-off per 48 minutes for all the games included in the above data. Please note that this is not a representative sample, since it is skewed towards the specific years we have. In particular, it is obviously skewed towards the latter part of Jordan’s time at the Bulls, where we have all of his regular season data. Indeed, his last three years with the Bulls make up 304 out of the 683 games that we have. Given that the team was better in those years than they were on average throughout Jordan’s career and that Jordan wasn’t quite as his peak in those years, the sampling error here likely skews things up in terms of the “on” value but down in terms of the on-off. With that all in mind, it still seems worth presenting.

Michael Jordan Total On-Off Per 48 Minutes in all Bulls data we have (including 683 games out of Jordan’s 1,109 games with the Bulls; note: this is a large sample but not an entirely representative one)

- On: +9.32 (+5240 in 26,973.033 minutes)
- Off: -4.38 (-559 in 6126.967 minutes)
- On-Off per 48 minutes: +13.70

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Description of Methodology

1. Basketball Reference: While Basketball-Reference has per-100-possession on-off data for Jordan for 1996-1997 and 1997-1998, the rest of the data in the post is on a per-48-minute basis, so I pulled per-48-minute basis from Basketball-Reference data, to keep things consistent. This just involves using Basketball Reference’s plus-minus data and their minutes data. I pulled the plus-minus data for the 1996-1997 and 1997-1998 regular season by using Statsmuse and searching for “michael jordan plus minus 1996-1997 regular season” and “michael jordan plus minus 1997-1998 regular season.” I pulled the plus-minus data for the 1996-1997 and 1997-1998 playoffs by using the Thinking Basketball data set provided to us by DraymondGold (see this post: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=110611516#p110611516). In order to get the minutes Jordan was “on” the court, I just looked at Basketball Reference data. To get the minutes Jordan was “off” the court, I subtracted Jordan’s minutes from the team’s total minutes according to Basketball Reference.

2. Pollack: Pollack tracked Jordan’s (and other players’) plus-minus in the 1994-1995 and 1995-1996 regular seasons. While I cannot currently find record of the original data source for this anymore, this data was discussed in the following thread, where posters specifically referred to Jordan having a +980 plus minus in the 1995-1996 regular season according to Pollack (see this post in that thread, for example: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=41095328#p41095328). The data is also found in this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z-0DQCSQr5vMLUp1zY4DbsmzBM4UFghqG4dc1eHfBh4/edit#gid=1672058251. I used that data. From there, one can derive all the necessary on-off-per-48-minute data just by pulling the minutes data and overall MOV data for those seasons from Basketball Reference. Please note that, for 1994-1995, I am just using the MOV from the 17 games after Jordan got back in order to get the OFF data. There’s of course an argument to use the rest of the season in the OFF sample (and including it would make Jordan’s 1994-1995 on-off better), but I’m reticent to include it for various reasons, including that it’d skew the overall career OFF sample to be disproportionately based on just OFF minutes from that one season.

3. Thinking Basketball: Thinking Basketball created a video that went over their tracking of Jordan’s on-off data in the playoffs starting in 1988. The video itself provided charts but not the raw data. So the original version of this post was based on eyeballing the charts in the video. However, in the meantime, DraymondGold very helpfully contacted Thinking Basketball and got us the raw data. That data can be found in the first “spoiler” section of the following post: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=110611516#p110611516. I used the data found in that post.

That said, there was an issue that Djoker and I noticed here. Specifically, as Djoker explained in this post (see here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=110656132#p110656132), not all the Thinking Basketball plus-minus data actually adds up to the total team margin of victor. Furthermore, in one year (1990), the “on” and “off” minutes didn’t add up to a whole number. Overall, there are issues with the Thinking Basketball data for the 1989, 1990, 1992, and 1995 playoffs. It’s unclear to me what the issue is, so I have no way to correct it. However, since 1989, 1990, 1992, and 1995 are the years where there’s issues with the Thinking Basketball data, and Djoker and Dipper13 also tracked Jordan’s plus-minus in those playoffs and their numbers actually add up to the total team margin of victory in those playoffs, I‘ve simply used that other data for those years instead of using Thinking Basketball’s numbers. Thus, these issues are not present for any of the years where I’ve reported Thinking Basketball’s data.

4. Squared Data: The Squared +/- data (which can be found here: https://squared2020.com/2022/07/31/some-michael-jordan-plus-minus-numbers/ and here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=108089436#p108089436; update: for now, it seems like Squared has pulled this data down, after an argument on these forums got somewhat personal, but I did keep record of the data, and hopefully Squared will put it back up eventually. Djoker posted screenshots of the data here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=110674231#p110674231) provides Jordan’s on-court +/- for a sample of games.

Squared’s data also lists offensive and defensive possessions when Jordan was on the court. Originally, I used that along with Basketball Reference’s pace data for each game to come up with per-100-possession numbers. However, since the rest of this post is now in per-48-minute terms, I’ve reported the Squared data in per-48-minute terms as well. This just involved taking the raw plus-minus in the Squared data and pulling the number of minutes Jordan played in those specific games from Basketball Reference and the plus-minus with Jordan off the court by comparing Jordan’s plus-minus with the team’s total MOV in those games. Note that, in order to get the number of “off” minutes, I did look into the number of OT periods in the relevant games in question.

I should note the obvious here though: While the data here includes a very substantial portion of the season (particularly for 1987-1988, 1990-1991, and 1992-1993), it is not all the games. So, there is obviously potential sampling error here, where the full sample might be different from the smaller sample we have. On this issue, I’d note that the Squared sample for 1990-1991 was substantially less good for the Bulls than the season as a whole (the Bulls had a +6.04 average MOV in the 56 games in the Squared sample, but had a +9.0 average MOV for the season as a whole). The Squared data is missing a bunch of Bulls blowouts and missing very few losses. It’s not really clear which way this would cut in terms of sampling error. Intuitively, I’d think blowouts help a star player’s on-off, since it tends to really juice up their “on” value, and the net rating when they’re off the court is often not actually good since there’s garbage time where the winning team usually doesn’t do well. But it’s also possible that the Bulls did better in those unsampled games because they did a lot better in Jordan’s “off” minutes. We don’t really know, but it’s a source of error. Please note, though, that there is no sampling error for the Squared data for the 1984-1985 playoffs, since we have the data there for every game.

5. Djoker’s Tracking Data: Djoker very helpfully went through video and tracked Jordan’s plus-minus in the 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990, and 1995 playoffs. Djoker’s initial post about this can be found here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=110582209#p110582209. That included data for the 1986, 1987, and 1995 playoffs. There was a small correction to the data that was later made and can be found here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=110650813#p110650813. I have incorporated that correction into the data. Djoker’s tracking of the 1989 and 1990 playoffs can be found here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=111058861#p111058861. That link also includes a correction of the 1995 playoff data. As noted above, Thinking Basketball also tracked Jordan’s plus-minus in the 1989, 1990, and 1995 playoffs, and their numbers differ very slightly. As discussed above, since Djoker’s tracking actually matches the total team margin of victory, I’m going with that data for those playoffs.

6. Dipper13’s Tracking Data: RealGM poster Dipper13 tracked Jordan’s and the Bulls’ plus-minus in the 1992 playoffs, as well as in 53 games of the 1991-1992 regular season along with 2 games Jordan missed that season. That data can be found in this post: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=48842652#p48842652. Specifically, scroll down to the “Team Performance” section. That provides the plus-minus with Jordan on and off the court in the 1992 playoffs as well as in 55 games of the 1991-1992 regular season. I used that plus-minus data. For the playoffs, I used minutes data from Basketball-Reference to put that in per-48-minutes terms. In order to put the regular season games in per-48-minutes terms, I used the link at the very top of that post to see what games were tracked, and then manually tabulated how many minutes Jordan played in those games using Basketball Reference’s game logs. After accounting for how many OT periods there were in those games, I could then calculate the number of minutes the Bulls played in those games and therefore how many minutes Jordan was off the court.

I note that Thinking Basketball also tracked Jordan’s plus-minus in the 1992 playoffs, and their numbers differ a fair bit. As discussed above, since Dipper13’s tracking actually matches the total team margin of victory, I’m going with that data for the 1992 playoffs.

Please also note that, similar to what was discussed above with the Squared data, the 1991-1992 regular season data doesn’t include the whole season, and therefore is subject to potential sampling error. Like with the 1990-1991 Squared data, the Bulls actually did better in the unsampled games, though (they went 25-2 in the unsampled games and 42-13 in the sampled games; and they had an average MOV of +7.82 in the sampled games and +15.78 in the unsampled games).

7. Total Playoff On-Off and Total Career On-Off for data we have: This information was derived using the existing data I already provided. Basically, in order to do this, I needed to separately calculate both an “on” value and an “off” value for all of this data combined (for all the playoffs games for the career playoff on-off and for all the data we have for the on-off that uses all the data). To get the “on” value per 48 minutes, I just added up the combined plus-minus on the court, divided by the combined number of minutes on the court, and then multiplied by 48. I then did the same for the “off” value, using the combined plus-minus off the court, divided by the combined number of minutes off the court, and then multiplied by 48. Once we have both an “on” and “off” value for these playoffs, it’s obviously easy to get an on-off number, by simply taking the “on” value minus the “off” value.

Finally, in general, I’ll note that if anyone notices any data-entry errors or something, I’m happy to fix them. I tried to be quite thorough, but it’s certainly possible I made a mistake somewhere, so anyone should feel free to double-check and let me know if I made a mistake.
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#2 » by DraymondGold » Tue Aug 15, 2023 2:31 am

Really fantastic stuff jake! It's super helpful to have all this stuff in one place. I'll add this thread to my 'Unofficial Projects' list in the 'PC BOARD PROJECTS -- A consolidation thread' :D

A few housekeeping issues about the specific numbers, before we presumably discuss actual basketball more in future posts.

Part 1: Eyeballing thinking basketball values
For the Thinking Basketball Video, I see that you eyeballed the values:
lessthanjake wrote: I derived the data on this by eyeballing the charts in the Thinking Basketball video. For transparency’s sake, here’s a list of the eyeballed values I used:

- 1987-1988: -3.5 on; -8 off
- 1988-1989: +4.5 on; -19.5 off
- 1989-1990: +7 on; (the off value was off the chart; see below for explanation on how I derived it)
- 1990-1991: +14 on; +1 off
- 1991-1992: +7 on; +5 off
- 1992-1993: +7.5 on; -3 off
- 1995-1996: +13 on; -3 off

That data is in per-48 minutes terms, so in order to convert it to per-100-possessions terms I made an adjustment using the Bulls’ playoff pace in each season. So, for instance, in 1991-1992, the Bulls had a 89.0 playoff pace. So, in order to convert to per-100-possession terms, I multiplied the on and off values that year by 100/89.


Which is all we're able to do at the moment. But! I thought it might be nice to eye ball things a bit more precisely, so I've taken high-res screenshots and started pixel counting. I've counted the number of pixels away from the center of the zero marker on the x-axis. I've tried my best to count until the exact center of the off/on circles in the video. This could obviously have some by-eye error, but I wouldn't expect an error to be more than ~2–4 pixels off from center at most. There's 80 pixels to +1 on off, so to get from the number of pixels to the on/off value, just divide by 80. For example, for the first off value, -641 pixels / 8 = -8.01 off per 48 minutes (rounded to the nearest hundredths place).

The results:
1988 off: -641 pixels = -8.01 off per 48 minutes
1989 off: -1571 pixels = - 19.64 off per 48 minutes
1990 off: ?
1991 off: +104 pixels = 1.3 off per 48 minutes
1992 off: +417 pixels = 5.21 off per 48 minutes
1993 off: -231 pixels = -2.89 off per 48 minutes
1996 off: -235 pixels = -2.94 off per 48 minutes

1988 on: -293 pixels = -3.66 on per 48 minutes
1989 on: -362 pixels = -4.53 on per 48 minutes
1990 on: +573 pixels = 7.16 on per 48 minutes
1991 on: +1060 pixels = 13.25 on per 48 minutes
1992 on: +573 pixels = 7.16 on per 48 minutes
1993 on: +586 pixels = 7.33 on per 48 minutes
1996 on: +1032 pixels = 12.9 on per 48 minutes
Nothing drastically different than you get, but some slight differences in the 1st and 2nd decimal place. Feel free to update the values in your OP if you care, but no worries if not!

Part 2: Estimating 1990
lessthanjake wrote:The “off” value in 1989-1990 is so low that it’s off the chart in the video. But we can derive what it is using other data in the video. Specifically, the video provides data for the three-playoff span of 1988-1990, and we can eyeball that to be about -19.5 off per 48 minutes. We also can also look at box scores and see how many minutes he was off the court in each of those playoffs (53 minutes in 1988; 108 minutes in 1989; and 94 minutes in 1990). Given that we also have the “off” data for 1988 and 1989, we can therefore do some simple algebra to solve for the “off” value in 1990. That comes out to -25.98. But that’s still in per-48-minute terms. The Bulls’ pace in those playoffs was 92.7, so we multiply -25.98 by 100/92.7, to get the “off” value in per-100-possession terms in that 1990 playoffs.

Please note that there are several potential sources of error in the methodology regarding this Thinking Basketball video. The first is that it’s just based on eyeballing the charts. Obviously the real values are slightly different than what I’ve eyeballed, but this shouldn’t be a source of significant error. The second issue is that the pace adjustment assumes that the Bulls played the same pace with Jordan on and off the court. That was probably not exactly true, though I think it’s probably unlikely that there was a significant difference. One final thing I want to note about the Thinking Basketball video data is that I’m pretty sure Ben Taylor tracked on-off data for the 1995 playoffs as well, but there’s not really any good way to figure out from the video what that data actually is.


One issue I've run into estimating the 1990 off value is that you get slightly different results if you use 1988–90 vs 1989–91 vs 1990–92 for your 3 year sample to calculate the 1990 off value. It looks like you used 1988–90. I get a slightly higher value for the 1990 on/off if I use 1988–90 for estimating the off vs if I use the other two samples. The deviation likely comes from differing changes in the team pace with Jordan on vs off in these different samples, which we aren't able to account for without the actual raw data -- you mention this in your post of course!

But a slightly more accurate estimate for the 1990 'off' value would check the off value from all three 3-year samples, then average them. If you're interested, for reference, here are the 3-year off values I get with my pixel counting method:
1988–90 off: -1598 pixels = -19.98 off per 48 minutes
1989–91 off: -1037 pixels = -12.96 off per 48 minutes
1990–92 off: -293 pixels = -3.66 off per 48 minutes

Part 3: Looking ahead
Obviously I'm always thrilled to get more data from Squared2020.

But two things that would be really interesting and I think somewhat *feasible* (easier than getting every regular season Jordan game) are the missing playoff samples in 1986 and 1987. We're just missing 6 games, and we'd have Jordan's on/off across his full career! (edit: I forgot 95. We'd need thinking basketball to post those numbers to actually have Jordan's full career playoffs)

It's possible Squared2020 and Thinking Basketball have the numbers but just haven't published them explicitly on Squared2020's site or in the Thinking Basketball video. If not, it's possible we may be able to find the videos...
Spoiler:
*cough*, don't tell anyone but there's 3 of them on youtube, *cough*
86 Bulls Game 2: 1986 NBA Playoffs Round 01 -Game 2 : Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics
[url][/url]

86 Bulls Game 3: Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics 1986 Playoffs Game 3
[url];list=PLDD8CAF80BF715316[/url]

87 Bulls Game 1: BULLS VS CELTICS 1987 PLAYOFF GAME 1
[url];list=PL6DC25DA0A95C7814[/url]
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#3 » by VanWest82 » Tue Aug 15, 2023 2:59 am

Based on what we know, what are the odds that MJ is #1 among stars in RAPM in each of 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 96, & 97?

Many will argue Magic would be the likelilest #1 in 89 and 90 despite those being two of MJ's best seasons. I'd lean MJ, same in 93 with Scottie and Horace mailing in that season. Jordan is likely, at worst, top 3 in each of these years and top 1 in most.
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#4 » by lessthanjake » Tue Aug 15, 2023 3:24 am

One quick note I want to make on this: It’s *maybe* possible to try to derive on-off data for the 1995 playoffs from the Thinking Basketball video. There is a 1993-1995 time period that the video has a chart for. It’s difficult to try to use that to derive 1995 data, since it’s not so clear if it included the 1994 playoffs. That said, given that the 1992-1994 chart had about a +2.5 off per 48 minutes value and the 1992 playoffs and 1993 playoffs had almost identical amounts of Jordan off minutes and one was about +5 off per 48 minutes and the other was -3 off per 48 minutes, I don’t think the data in the chart works unless it’s including 1994. So let’s assume it does. If it does, then we can try to derive 1995 data, in a similar way to the “alternate” calculation for the 1990 “off” number.

It’s a very rough and likely substantially inaccurate method*, but I eyeballed the 1993-1995 chart and estimated that it is about +4.3 on and +2.9 off. We also know the minutes on and off in all those seasons. From there, we can do the same sort of algebra I described in my OP, and it comes out to -1.67 per 48 minutes with Jordan on and +16.94 per 48 minutes with Jordan off (note: it’s just 65 minutes off the court). Adjusting for the Bulls’s pace in those playoff, we get -1.91 per 100 possessions on and +19.36 per 100 possessions off, for an ugly -21.27 on-off per 100 possessions in those 1995 playoffs.

If we throw that into the full playoff data, it would look like the following:

Total Playoff On-Off per 100 Possessions with 1985 + 1988-1993 + 1995-1998

- On: +7.79
- Off: -6.98 [note: it is -7.24 if we derive the 1990 “off” value with the alternate calculation that uses this same method]
- On-Off: +14.77 [note: it is +15.03 if we derive the 1990 “off” value with the alternate calculation that uses this same method]

So, obviously that 1995 data brings the total numbers down a decent bit, but we’re getting closer to full playoff data for Jordan (only missing two best-of-five series) and Jordan’s playoff on-off is incredibly high.

____________________________

* PLEASE NOTE: This derivation of 1995 playoff on-off using the three-year data from the video is actually probably highly inaccurate, especially as it relates to the 1995 playoffs, where we only have one three-year data point and are trying to derive all the data for that year based on it. See here for further explanation: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107971752#p107971752
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#5 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 15, 2023 3:31 am

Draymondgold wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:.

Hmm...

Image

Image'

Odd that 1995 escaped attention while pouring over pixels.

(shaq value is incorrect)
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#6 » by lessthanjake » Tue Aug 15, 2023 3:39 am

OhayoKD wrote:
Draymondgold wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:.

Hmm...

Image

Image'

Odd that 1995 escaped attention while pouring over pixels.

(shaq value is incorrect)


Lol. Try looking at the post right above yours, buddy.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#7 » by lessthanjake » Tue Aug 15, 2023 4:02 am

VanWest82 wrote:Based on what we know, what are the odds that MJ is #1 among stars in RAPM in each of 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 96, & 97?

Many will argue Magic would be the likelilest #1 in 89 and 90 despite those being two of MJ's best seasons. I'd lean MJ, same in 93 with Scottie and Horace mailing in that season. Jordan is likely, at worst, top 3 in each of these years and top 1 in most.


Well, what we do know is that in 1987-1988 and 1990-91 we actually have half or more of the season for both the Bulls and Lakers, and Jordan is comfortably ahead of Magic in RAPM in those samples (with it being particularly comfortable in 1990-1991). So it seems fairly likely that Jordan would’ve been ahead of Magic in RAPM for those full seasons, if we had data for it. But, of course we can’t know for sure. As for 1989 and 1990, I guess we basically have no idea how the two would shake out since we have no regular season data, but given how 1988 and 1991 look in the Squared data I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Jordan was ahead in those years too.

As for 1992, 1993, and 1996, we don’t really have much idea of course, since we don’t have data. Given how well the Bulls did in the 1992 and 1996 regular seasons (and how high Jordan’s on-off was in the 1996 regular season), I’d be fairly surprised if he didn’t lead the league those years in RAPM, but obviously I’m just speculating. I’d be less surprised if he didn’t lead the league in 1993, since the team mailed it in in the regular season a bit. Not sure who exactly would be ahead of him, but I just wouldn’t be surprised if someone was.

For 1997, we do actually have a couple sources of single-season RAPM data for that year (since there’s play by play data at that point), and raw RAPM measures have Jordan in 2nd either behind Christian Laettner or Terry Mills. In other words, basically 1st if we’re looking at major stars. And we have RPM (i.e. an impact-box composite) for that year that has Jordan 1st by a significant margin.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#8 » by VanWest82 » Tue Aug 15, 2023 4:42 am

lessthanjake wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Based on what we know, what are the odds that MJ is #1 among stars in RAPM in each of 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 96, & 97?

Many will argue Magic would be the likelilest #1 in 89 and 90 despite those being two of MJ's best seasons. I'd lean MJ, same in 93 with Scottie and Horace mailing in that season. Jordan is likely, at worst, top 3 in each of these years and top 1 in most.


Well, what we do know is that in 1987-1988 and 1990-91 we actually have half or more of the season for both the Bulls and Lakers, and Jordan is comfortably ahead of Magic in RAPM in those samples (with it being particularly comfortable in 1990-1991). So it seems fairly likely that Jordan would’ve been ahead of Magic in RAPM for those full seasons, if we had data for it. But, of course we can’t know for sure. As for 1989 and 1990, I guess we basically have no idea how the two would shake out since we have no regular season data, but given how 1988 and 1991 look in the Squared data I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Jordan was ahead in those years too.

As for 1992, 1993, and 1996, we don’t really have much idea of course, since we don’t have data. Given how well the Bulls did in the 1992 and 1996 regular seasons (and how high Jordan’s on-off was in the 1996 regular season), I’d be fairly surprised if he didn’t lead the league those years in RAPM, but obviously I’m just speculating. I’d be less surprised if he didn’t lead the league in 1993, since the team mailed it in in the regular season a bit. Not sure who exactly would be ahead of him, but I just wouldn’t be surprised if someone was.

For 1997, we do actually have a couple sources of single-season RAPM data for that year (since there’s play by play data at that point), and raw RAPM measures have Jordan in 2nd either behind Christian Laettner or Terry Mills. In other words, basically 1st if we’re looking at major stars. And we have RPM (i.e. an impact-box composite) for that year that has Jordan 1st by a significant margin.

Think we can likely add 96 as having a pretty good idea: https://squared2020.com/2022/07/18/1995-1996-nba-rapm/

I get there are other estimates that have DRob #1 but the fact that he's so far behind here is kind of damning. I think 92 is a lock as well.
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#9 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:00 am

(hit post early and had to delete. Multi-tasking hard :banghead: )
lessthanjake wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
Draymondgold wrote:



Lol. Try looking at the post right above yours, buddy.

Ninja'd :(

Just be cautious with bbr pace-estimates:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
> Pace - Pace Factor (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); the formula is 48 * ((Tm Poss + Opp Poss) / (2 * (Tm MP / 5))). **Pace factor is an estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.**
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

lessthanjake wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Based on what we know, what are the odds that MJ is #1 among stars in RAPM in each of And we have RPM (i.e. an impact-box composite) for that year that has Jordan 1st by a significant margin.

Eh...
Image
Image
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#10 » by SHAQ32 » Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:21 am

Gizzoat!
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#11 » by DraymondGold » Tue Aug 15, 2023 6:30 am

lessthanjake wrote:Lol. Try looking at the post right above yours, buddy.
Lol. I had mentioned 95 in my post as well, as part of our missing sample. But of course we only have one 3-year sample for it rather than 3, so there's already greater uncertainty, plus the fact that we don't know how 94 is incorporated like you say. I'd recommend we not get to bogged down by bickering that ignores points we both made already, and continue on our path of 1) improving the numbers we have with greater precision, 2) working on getting specificity for the high-uncertainty samples we have information on (90 playoffs, ~95 playoffs), 3) seeing if we can get a larger sample for the missing data (86 playoffs, 87 playoffs, ~95 playoffs), and most fun of all... 4) seeing if there's any good takeaways from this!

With 4 in mind....
lessthanjake wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Based on what we know, what are the odds that MJ is #1 among stars in RAPM in each of 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 96, & 97?

Many will argue Magic would be the likelilest #1 in 89 and 90 despite those being two of MJ's best seasons. I'd lean MJ, same in 93 with Scottie and Horace mailing in that season. Jordan is likely, at worst, top 3 in each of these years and top 1 in most.


Well, what we do know is that in 1987-1988 and 1990-91 we actually have half or more of the season for both the Bulls and Lakers, and Jordan is comfortably ahead of Magic in RAPM in those samples (with it being particularly comfortable in 1990-1991). So it seems fairly likely that Jordan would’ve been ahead of Magic in RAPM for those full seasons, if we had data for it. But, of course we can’t know for sure. As for 1989 and 1990, I guess we basically have no idea how the two would shake out since we have no regular season data, but given how 1988 and 1991 look in the Squared data I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Jordan was ahead in those years too.
Just to get a bit more detail:

1988.
-1988 Squared2020 RAPM: Jordan +7.47 (1st, 43 games), Magic + 6.62 (2nd, 54 games), McHale +4.86 (3rd, 43 games)
-So: Jordan's +0.85 or 13% over Magic, +2.61 or 54% over third place.
Over half the season is definitely a good sample -- we're definitely getting a real signal that's not dominated by noise. And it doesn't look like the Bulls/Lakers massively over or underperformed in the data we do have. But I'm not sure Jordan's above the uncertainty bounds of Magic. Still, he's more likely than not 1st place, and he's so much higher than third place that we can be quite confident he's top 2.

1989–90.
Jordan's 1st in 88 and 91 (see below). But I'd be careful interpolating a 1st place in 88 and a 1st place in 91 with a guaranteed 1st place in 89 or 90. Certainly possible, wouldn't be surprising, perhaps Jordan's the most likely candidate for 1st, but absolutely not guaranteed. RAPM, even with a full regular season of data, can still have variability, and there were certainly other high value players at the time.

1991.
-1991 Squared2020 RAPM: Jordan +6.40 (1st, 57 games), Vlade Divac +4.95 (2nd, 51 games), ... [Rodman (3rd, 40 games), David Robinson (4th, 53 games), Porter, Parish, IT, Stockton), Magic Johnson +4.0 (9th, 61 games).
-So: Jordan's +1.45 or 29% over 2nd place, +2.6 or 60% over Magic.
Agan we have over half a season for Jordan, which is a good sample. And he has an even larger lead. Both the Bulls and the Lakers significantly underperformed in this sample, so they could be higher. More likely than not, Jordan's 1st place again.

As for 1992, 1993, and 1996, we don’t really have much idea of course, since we don’t have data. Given how well the Bulls did in the 1992 and 1996 regular seasons (and how high Jordan’s on-off was in the 1996 regular season), I’d be fairly surprised if he didn’t lead the league those years in RAPM, but obviously I’m just speculating. I’d be less surprised if he didn’t lead the league in 1993, since the team mailed it in in the regular season a bit. Not sure who exactly would be ahead of him, but I just wouldn’t be surprised if someone was.


1992.
I think "fairly surprised if he didn't lead the league those years" is a bit too strong for my tastes, at least for me personally. It's noisy, and it's very hard to be consistently #1 across the full league for multiple years in a row. If I had to bet on one player, based on 91 RAPM and 92 team results, I'd definitely pick Jordan. The Lakers, Detroit, and Boston all got worse, and they had 6/11 of the top spots in 1991. Still, Robinson was 4th in the league in Squared2020's 1991 data and was getting better in 1992, Stockton was still near peak, and there's occasionally role players who jump up if they happen to have a complementary situation and rotation (see your comments on 97).

1993.
The team did coast a bit in the regular season. But someone in the Top 100 thread went into detail saying that it was also a clear drop for Pippen and Grant specifically (by box stats, e.g. efficiency and turnovers). Jordan did decline post-peak, but it seemed like less of a cold spell for Jordan at least. By Backpicks BPM, the top players in 1993 are Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, Daugherty, McMillan, Malone, and Robinson. I wouldn't be shocked if any of them snuck past Jordan in RAPM, wouldn't be surprised if Jordan remained on top. My money would be on either Jordan or Robinson (who's 4th in 1991 Squared2020 RAPM, 1st in 1994 full-season on/off and AuPM).

VanWest82 wrote: Think we can likely add 96 as having a pretty good idea: https://squared2020.com/2022/07/18/1995-1996-nba-rapm/

I get there are other estimates that have DRob #1 but the fact that he's so far behind here is kind of damning. I think 92 is a lock as well.


1996.
We don't have full season RAPM data. But we do have partial Squared2020 Data, full-season on/off, and full-season AuPM (which gives a good, stable estimate of RAPM in small samples)!
-Squared2020 RAPM: Jordan +6.62 (1st, 73 games), Pippen +6.14 (2nd, 73 games), Theo Ratcliff +6.94 (3rd, 14 games), Ewing +5.49 (4th, 32 games)... Robinson +3.97 (12th, 13 game sample size)
-1996 Full season on/off: Anfernee Hardaway +17.1 (1st), David Robinson +16.6 (2nd), Jordan +15.2 (3rd), (Stockton 4th, Malone 7th)... Pippen +11.8 (11th).
-1996 Full Season AuPM: Jordan +7.4 (1st), David Robinson +6.0 (2nd), Pippen +5.8 (3rd), Karl Malone +5.7 (4th)
So in RAPM Jordan's +0.48 or 8% over Pippen for 2nd, with 9 games left for the Bulls. The other players are on much smaller samples, though Jordan and Pippen have separation over them. In our full-season data, Jordan's 3rd in overall on/off, and the clear first in AuPM (+1.4 or 23% over Robinson in 2nd). Factor in the 96 team results, at it seems like 1st in full-season RAPM is quite likely.

For 1997, we do actually have a couple sources of single-season RAPM data for that year (since there’s play by play data at that point), and raw RAPM measures have Jordan in 2nd either behind Christian Laettner or Terry Mills. In other words, basically 1st if we’re looking at major stars. And we have RPM (i.e. an impact-box composite) for that year that has Jordan 1st by a significant margin.


1997.
Yep, agreed. In Goldstein RAPM, Jordan is 2nd below Laettner (I guess he really did deserve his place on the Dream Team!). The next more notable player is Tim Hardaway at 4th (-0.03 behind Jordan), then Pippen at 5th (-0.38 behind Jordan).

1998.
Jordan's 4th, behind Shaq, Mourning, and Mookie Baylock. (at the age of 34)

Pretty consistent RAPM dominance in the sparse sampling we have!
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#12 » by DraymondGold » Tue Aug 15, 2023 6:33 am

SHAQ32 wrote:Gizzoat!
Greatest... Inebriated... Zebra... Zoographer... of all time?
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#13 » by Owly » Tue Aug 15, 2023 8:33 am

VanWest82 wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Based on what we know, what are the odds that MJ is #1 among stars in RAPM in each of 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 96, & 97?

Many will argue Magic would be the likelilest #1 in 89 and 90 despite those being two of MJ's best seasons. I'd lean MJ, same in 93 with Scottie and Horace mailing in that season. Jordan is likely, at worst, top 3 in each of these years and top 1 in most.


Well, what we do know is that in 1987-1988 and 1990-91 we actually have half or more of the season for both the Bulls and Lakers, and Jordan is comfortably ahead of Magic in RAPM in those samples (with it being particularly comfortable in 1990-1991). So it seems fairly likely that Jordan would’ve been ahead of Magic in RAPM for those full seasons, if we had data for it. But, of course we can’t know for sure. As for 1989 and 1990, I guess we basically have no idea how the two would shake out since we have no regular season data, but given how 1988 and 1991 look in the Squared data I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Jordan was ahead in those years too.

As for 1992, 1993, and 1996, we don’t really have much idea of course, since we don’t have data. Given how well the Bulls did in the 1992 and 1996 regular seasons (and how high Jordan’s on-off was in the 1996 regular season), I’d be fairly surprised if he didn’t lead the league those years in RAPM, but obviously I’m just speculating. I’d be less surprised if he didn’t lead the league in 1993, since the team mailed it in in the regular season a bit. Not sure who exactly would be ahead of him, but I just wouldn’t be surprised if someone was.

For 1997, we do actually have a couple sources of single-season RAPM data for that year (since there’s play by play data at that point), and raw RAPM measures have Jordan in 2nd either behind Christian Laettner or Terry Mills. In other words, basically 1st if we’re looking at major stars. And we have RPM (i.e. an impact-box composite) for that year that has Jordan 1st by a significant margin.

Think we can likely add 96 as having a pretty good idea: https://squared2020.com/2022/07/18/1995-1996-nba-rapm/

I get there are other estimates that have DRob #1 but the fact that he's so far behind here is kind of damning. I think 92 is a lock as well.

Errr ...

It seems to me that this sample has Robinson +41 over 13 games. Prorates to 258.6153846 over 82 games.

We know with Robinson on they're actually +624.

I don't think it's damning because (unless I've messed up badly here) we know this sample is going to badly underestimate Robinson versus the full season.
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#14 » by homecourtloss » Tue Aug 15, 2023 2:42 pm

DraymondGold wrote:
Part 3: Looking ahead
Obviously I'm always thrilled to get more data from Squared2020.

But two things that would be really interesting and I think somewhat *feasible* (easier than getting every regular season Jordan game) are the missing playoff samples in 1986 and 1987. We're just missing 6 games, and we'd have Jordan's on/off across his full career! (edit: I forgot 95. We'd need thinking basketball to post those numbers to actually have Jordan's full career playoffs)

It's possible Squared2020 and Thinking Basketball have the numbers but just haven't published them explicitly on Squared2020's site or in the Thinking Basketball video. If not, it's possible we may be able to find the videos...
Spoiler:
*cough*, don't tell anyone but there's 3 of them on youtube, *cough*
86 Bulls Game 2: 1986 NBA Playoffs Round 01 -Game 2 : Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics
[url][/url]

86 Bulls Game 3: Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics 1986 Playoffs Game 3
[url];list=PLDD8CAF80BF715316[/url]

87 Bulls Game 1: BULLS VS CELTICS 1987 PLAYOFF GAME 1
[url];list=PL6DC25DA0A95C7814[/url]


I have 1986 game 3 vs. the Celtics

—1st quarter, Jordan -10
—2nd quarter goes out with 4:30 or 4:40 left in 2nd quarter at -11 (have to manually count seconds to be exact since they didn’t show the game clock in these days unless it was CBS televised games and not even then sometimes)
—Bulls -3 in 4:30 to end second quarter without Jordan

—1st half:
19 minutes and 30 seconds of Jordan: -11
4 minutes and 30 seconds without Jordan: -3

After three quarters:
31 minutes and 20 seconds with Jordan: -25
4 minutes and 40 seconds without Jordan: -3

4th quarter
5 minutes left in fourth quarter: -17 (fouls out)

TOTAL
38:30–39:00 with Jordan on court: -17
9:00–9:30 with Jordan off court: -1

Some notes:

—Like many games in the this period, there were a great number of touch fouls; this game saw almost 70 FTs between the teams mostly on slight contact.
—Jordan got a 4th foul on a reach in steal/slap attempt but he didn’t even touch anyone and was called for the foul. He played the first 19:30 straight of the game.
—Jordan made some difficult 1st quarter shots in traffic in the 1st quarter
—Bird got at 4 shooting foul FTs on basically zero contact and then more FTs on little contact because the Bulls were in the penalty
—McHale torched everyone including two over-the-head no look close rim shots off of post moves on the right block. He had 23 points in the first half. Celtics didn’t even really look for Bird in the first half. McHale came down on his ankle and had to leave in the 4th and Bird went to the bench with him and the Bulls went on a run to cut the 30 point deficit to 19. Jordan pushed the ball in transition and Celtics were slow to get back
—Though spacing was limited compared to the modern game, getting into the middle of the paint was rather easy for both teams. DJ of the Celtics slow-dribbled his way into the lane quite easily (see first basket of the third quarter, a little 14 ft pull up over Jordan)
—You can see what a difference coaching would make for the Bulls—Paxson should have been getting minutes all year but it’s hard to play him over the aging Iceman who was our with the flu in this game.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#15 » by lessthanjake » Tue Aug 15, 2023 2:58 pm

DraymondGold wrote:
One issue I've run into estimating the 1990 off value is that you get slightly different results if you use 1988–90 vs 1989–91 vs 1990–92 for your 3 year sample to calculate the 1990 off value. It looks like you used 1988–90. I get a slightly higher value for the 1990 on/off if I use 1988–90 for estimating the off vs if I use the other two samples. The deviation likely comes from differing changes in the team pace with Jordan on vs off in these different samples, which we aren't able to account for without the actual raw data -- you mention this in your post of course!

But a slightly more accurate estimate for the 1990 'off' value would check the off value from all three 3-year samples, then average them. If you're interested, for reference, here are the 3-year off values I get with my pixel counting method:
1988–90 off: -1598 pixels = -19.98 off per 48 minutes
1989–91 off: -1037 pixels = -12.96 off per 48 minutes
1990–92 off: -293 pixels = -3.66 off per 48 minutes


So I ran the 1990 “off” estimate using all of those 3-year samples and using your pixel-based estimates for the different values, and the average per 48 minutes comes out to -24.67. Which, after the estimated pace adjustment would come out to -26.61 per 100 possessions. That’s slightly less bad than the estimate in my OP, but pretty similar.

To me, though, the more important takeaway from doing this exercise is that it makes me pretty skeptical of using the three-year samples in the Thinking Basketball video to derive missing values (especially as it relates to the 1995 playoffs, where there’s only one such three-year sample). I expected the calculations for the 1990 “off” value that used different three-year samples to be pretty close, but they actually…weren’t. Instead, they ranged from -27.12 per 48 minutes to -21.72 per 48 minutes. Which is far enough away that it kind of tells me that deriving missing numbers by looking at the three-year stuff in that video is a *very* inaccurate method. With the 1990 “off” sample, we can presumably be a little more confident that we’re in the right ballpark since we have three different three-year data points. But, with the 1995 stuff that I posted, I don’t think we can assume we have any particular accuracy at all, since it’s just based on one three-year data point and we also have to derive *both* an “on” and “off” value for it using this method (so this potential error applies to two values).
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#16 » by lessthanjake » Tue Aug 15, 2023 3:26 pm

You know, it occurs to me that we can actually derive the 1990 “off” value without looking at the Thinking Basketball 3-year charts.

This is because we actually have a data point on the video for the “on” value, and we also know the total MOV and the number of minutes Jordan was on and off the court.

My eyeball estimate for the “on” value that year was +7. DraymondGold’s pixel-based method says +7.16. Let’s use the latter. There were 674 on minutes, and 94 off minutes. And the total MOV was +55. We can use the “on” value and the number of “on” minutes to get an estimate of the MOV with Jordan “on” and then subtract that from the overall MOV to get an estimate of the MOV with Jordan “off.” We can then divide that by the number of minutes and multiply by 48, to get us an “off” value per 48 minutes. That gets us to an estimated -23.25 off value per 48 minutes. Which, with a pace adjustment, leaves us with an estimate of -25.08 per 100 possessions.

Given how inaccurate it obviously is to derive missing values using the 3-year charts (see my above post about that), I think this is a better method for estimating the 1990 playoff “off” value. I have therefore updated my original post to include this value instead, and have just noted the old value as an “alternate” calculation.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#17 » by homecourtloss » Tue Aug 15, 2023 4:56 pm

DraymondGold wrote:
87 Bulls Game 1: BULLS VS CELTICS 1987 PLAYOFF GAME 1
[url];list=PL6DC25DA0A95C7814[/url][/spoiler]


FYI—this isn’t the 1987 playoffs—it’s a regular season game (look at the title) in which the Celtics beat up the Bulls 113-99. It’s a great game to watch Bird operate, though. :D
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#18 » by DraymondGold » Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:28 pm

lessthanjake wrote:You know, it occurs to me that we can actually derive the 1990 “off” value without looking at the Thinking Basketball 3-year charts.

This is because we actually have a data point on the video for the “on” value, and we also know the total MOV and the number of minutes Jordan was on and off the court.

My eyeball estimate for the “on” value that year was +7. DraymondGold’s pixel-based method says +7.16. Let’s use the latter. There were 674 on minutes, and 94 off minutes. And the total MOV was +55. We can use the “on” value and the number of “on” minutes to get an estimate of the MOV with Jordan “on” and then subtract that from the overall MOV to get an estimate of the MOV with Jordan “off.” We can then divide that by the number of minutes and multiply by 48, to get us an “off” value per 48 minutes. That gets us to an estimated -23.25 off value per 48 minutes. Which, with a pace adjustment, leaves us with an estimate of -25.08 per 100 possessions.

Given how inaccurate it obviously is to derive missing values using the 3-year charts (see my above post about that), I think this is a better method for estimating the 1990 playoff “off” value. I have therefore updated my original post to include this value instead, and have just noted the old value as an “alternate” calculation.
Smart :D

homecourtloss wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
87 Bulls Game 1: BULLS VS CELTICS 1987 PLAYOFF GAME 1
[url];list=PL6DC25DA0A95C7814[/url][/spoiler]


FYI—this isn’t the 1987 playoffs—it’s a regular season game (look at the title) in which the Celtics beat up the Bulls 113-99. It’s a great game to watch Bird operate, though. :D
Oh dang, good catch! And wow, I can't read... :sad: I searched '1987 Bulls Game 1', and that popped up, and I got excited enough that I didn't even question it.

Regardless, thanks for adding the plus minus for 1986 Game 3!
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Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#19 » by homecourtloss » Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:45 pm

DraymondGold wrote:Oh dang, good catch! And wow, I can't read... :sad: I searched '1987 Bulls Game 1', and that popped up, and I got excited enough that I didn't even question it.

Regardless, thanks for adding the plus minus for 1986 Game 3!


I know it’s not anything that adds to what’s happening in this thread but I have the entire Suns vs. Bulls Finals charted for plus/minus.

Bulls vs. Suns, 1993

Game 1:
1st quarter, Jordan 4 pts 2/5
34-20, Jordan +14, Barkley -14

2nd 40-24 Jordan goes out
2nd 46-30 Jordan Reenters

Half: 52-41, Jordan +11, Barkley -11

3rd: Barkley out at 71-66,
End of 3rd, 73-69 Bulls, Jordan—+4, Barkley, -5

4th: Jordan sits at 84-81, +3, Barkley -4
Jordan right back in at 84-81, +3, Barkley -4

Barkley leaves at 99-90, -10
Jordan +9

100-92 Final: Jordan, +8, Barkley, -10

Game 2
Jordan sits up 24-22,+2, Barkley -2
End 1: 29-28 Suns, Jordan +2, Barkley +1, Barkley sits up 29-28
2nd quarter, Barkley reenters at 31-31; Jordan +3, Barkley, +1
2nd quarter, Jordan sits at 49-39, +13, Barkley -9
2nd quarter, Jordan reenters, 53-43, +13, Barkley, -9
Half: 59-53, Bulls; Jordan, +9, Barkley, -5
End of 3rd: 87-84; Jordan, +6, Barkley, -2
4th: Jordan sits at 91-91, Jordan +3, Barkley, +1
Jordan reenters at 96-95, Suns; Jordan, +3, Barkley, +2

Final: 111-108; Jordan +5, Barkley +0

Game 3
1st Barkley sits at 29-23 Bulls; Barkley, -6, Jordan +6
End of 1: 29-29; Barkley, -6, Jordan, +0
2nd quarter: Barkley renters and Jordan sits at 44-38, Suns; Barkley, -6, Jordan, -6
2nd quarter: Jordan reenters at 48-47, Suns; Jordan -6, Barkley, -11
Half: 58-57 Suns; Jordan -6, Barkley, -11
End of 3: 86-85 suns; Jordan, -6, Barkley, -11
Beginning of 4th: Both Jordan and Barkley sit
4th: Jordan reenters at 91-87 Suns; Jordan -6, Barkley -11
4th Barkley reenters at 92-87 Suns: Jordan -6, Barkley -11
4th: 99-88 Suns; Jordan -13, Barkley, -5
End of regulation: 103-103; Jordan -2, Barkley, -16; Jordan 1-10 shooting in 4th
End of first OT: 107-107; Jordan -2, Barkley, -16; Jordan 1-5 in OT
End of 2nd OT: 114-114; Jordan -2, Barkley, -16
3rd OT: Barkley out at 129-120 Suns; Jordan, -11, Barkley, -7
Final: 129-121 Suns:

Jordan, -10, Barkley, -7

Game 4
End of 1st: Bulls 31-27; Jordan +4, Barkley -4
2nd quarter, Jordan goes out at 54-45 Bulls; Jordan +9, Barkley, -9
2nd quarter, Jordan reenters at 55-53 Bulls; Jordan +9, Barkley, -2
Half: 61-58; Jordan +10, Barkley, -3
3rd: Jordan sits at 86-79; Jordan +14, Barkley -7
End of 3: 86-81 Bulls;Jordan +14, Barkley -5
Beginning of 4th: Barkley sits at 86-81 Bulls
4th Barkley reenters at 91-85 Bulls; Jordan +13, Barkley -7

Final: Bulls 111-105; Jordan +13, Barkley -7

Game5
End of 1: 33-21 Suns; Jordan, -12, Barkley +12
2nd: Barkley sits at 37-28 Suns; Jordan -9, Barkley +9
2nd: Barkley reenters at 38-34; Jordan, -4, Barkley +9
Half: 54-49, Suns; Jordan, -5, Barkley +10
End of 3: 80-73suns; Jordan -7, Barkley +12
Beginning of 4th: 80-73, both Jordan and Barkley sit
4th: both Jordan and Barkley enter at 86-78
4th: 105-94, Barkley sits; Jordan -10, Barkley +15
4th: Jordan sits at 106-95 Suns; Jordan -10, Barkley +15
Final: suns 108-98; Jordan -10, Barkley +15

Game6
End of 1: Bulls 37-28; Jordan +9, Barkley -9
2nd: Jordan sits 37-28 Bulls
2nd: Jordan reenters and Barkley sits at 43-36 Bulls; Jordan +9, Barkley -7
2nd: Barkley reenters at 45-40 Bulls; Jordan, +7, Barkley -7
Halftime; 56-51 Bulls; Jordan +7, Barkley -7
3rd: Barkley sits at 83-75 Bulls; Jordan +10, Barkley -10
End of 3: 87-79 Bulls; Jordan +10, Barkley-10
End of game: 99-98;
Jordan +3, Barkley -3

Totals:
Jordan, +9 in 274 minutes, Bulls -9 in 29 minutes Jordan off court

Barkley, -12 in 277 minutes, Suns +12 in the 26 minutes Barkley off court.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
ComeFlyWithMe
Ballboy
Posts: 27
And1: 32
Joined: Jul 22, 2023

Re: Compilation of Michael Jordan’s on-off data with the Bulls 

Post#20 » by ComeFlyWithMe » Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:39 am

Wow! This matches what us old heads saw from him going back to his rookie year. He is incredible. These on off numbers are something else! This man is simply the greatest in my opinion.

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