(LOCK THREAD) The LeBron James- 23-24 NBA Thread - 40K POINTS+(Part 1)(NO INSULTING)

[Colbinii]

The Problem with LA is trying to score with Denver. Last year they put up a 118 Ortg against Denver and gave up 124 Ortg. KCP and MPJ both shot > 40% from 3 against the Lakers.

LeBron was incredible offensively, AD was inconsistent while Reaves and Rui showed up big time. If they can get a locked-in and focused D-Lo, they have more than a puncher's chance against the defending champs.

[OhayoKD]

These guys are about to get swept again.

Oh well should have took the early season and seeding serious

0 shot they get swept

gut feeling this goes 7

I'd be shocked if this gets past 5 games. Denver is a LOT better than L.A., and the Lakers have no real answer for either of Denver's primary threats... We'll see if Lebron is able to turn back the clock a bit and actually score well in the playoffs. He looks healthy-ish, but he's been pretty rough the past couple postseasons.

They're certainly alot better than LA with their best two players playing injured. Not really sure that applies to the healthy version though the regular-season results this year would be a good sign for denver. Pretty terrible performance against the Pelicans as well

[PistolPeteJR]

These guys are about to get swept again.

Oh well should have took the early season and seeding serious

0 shot they get swept

gut feeling this goes 7

I'd be shocked if this gets past 5 games. Denver is a LOT better than L.A., and the Lakers have no real answer for either of Denver's primary threats... We'll see if Lebron is able to turn back the clock a bit and actually score well in the playoffs. He looks healthy-ish, but he's been pretty rough the past couple postseasons.

It's going to come down to DLo. If he can deliver 80% of what he's delivered since January, they have a shot. That said, if the Nuggets shoot our of their minds like they did in the WCFs last year, forget it.

[tsherkin]

They're certainly alot better than LA with their best two players playing injured. Not really sure that applies to the healthy version though the regular-season results this year would be a good sign for denver. Pretty terrible performance against the Pelicans as well

We shall see how it goes. I'm hoping we see Lebron from 3 years ago more than from the past two postseasons, if only so I don't have to hear all off-season about how he "choked" at 39 years old against the reigning champs.

The Nuggets are a 57-win team, and that was with Murray playing 59 games. They were on 61-win pace with him. Lebron and AD played 71 and 76 games this season, so they've been around the vast majority of the season. My faith in the Lakers goes only so far, particularly since they were a faintly below-average defense to begin with. That going up against the 5th-best O in the league (again, minding Murray's extensive absence) does not project well for the Lakers in terms of their chances, IMHO.

[OhayoKD]

They're certainly alot better than LA with their best two players playing injured. Not really sure that applies to the healthy version though the regular-season results this year would be a good sign for denver. Pretty terrible performance against the Pelicans as well

We shall see how it goes. I'm hoping we see Lebron from 3 years ago more than from the past two postseasons, if only so I don't have to hear all off-season about how he "choked" at 39 years old against the reigning champs.

The Nuggets are a 57-win team, and that was with Murray playing 59 games. They were on 61-win pace with him. Lebron and AD played 71 and 76 games this season, so they've been around the vast majority of the season. My faith in the Lakers goes only so far, particularly since they were a faintly below-average defense to begin with. That going up against the 5th-best O in the league (again, minding Murray's extensive absence) does not project well for the Lakers in terms of their chances, IMHO.

This is all fair, but I generally buy that the Lakers post-ASB performance(basically when they picked their starting lineup) is more representative of their true playoff quality and that Ham was experimenting/holding cards to his chest for portions of the RS.

I also buy Lebron has been saving up on defense for the postseason and there's something to be said about them going perfect in a playoff-adjacent IST and three of their four games last year coming to the wire with Lebron playing on a torn tendon.

All to say, while the nuggets are really probably a 60-something team when it matters, I'd ballpark the Lakers as a 50 something team and I don't know I buy that as a walk in the park even with the 8 game losing streak.

[tsherkin]

This is all fair, but I generally buy that the Lakers post-ASB performance(basically when they picked their starting lineup) is more representative of their true playoff quality and that Ham was experimenting/holding cards to his chest for portions of the RS.

Sure, that makes sense. I just don't think it's enough. I also don't think they're a 40% 3pt shooting team as a whole, which was their performance level for the post-ASB stretch. No team in the league did that over the balance of the season, with 38.9% from OKC topping out. So there's some variance involved in LA's performance to consider. Same same team FG%, which for LA after the break was 50.5% versus the league-leading 50.7% (Pacers were the only team to shoot 50%+ on the season).

I also buy Lebron has been saving up on defense for the postseason and there's something to be said about them going perfect in a playoff-adjacent IST and three of their four games last year coming to the wire with Lebron playing on a torn tendon.

All to say, while the nuggets are really probably a 60-something team when it matters, I'd ballpark the Lakers as a 50 something team and I don't know I buy that as a walk in the park even with the 8 game losing streak.

I'm pretty comfortable with my original statement. I doubt they'll replicate what went into their post-break record against the Nuggets, and I don't think they're going to have any real luck trying to defend Denver either. But we shall see!

[donnieme]

This series is basically D'lo and Ham auditioning for a spot next year.

[D.Brasco]

It was mainly due to being mostly healthy the full season but LeBron scored his most total points in a season since 2018 when he was 33. Absolutely crazy he put up a near 2,000 points season in year 21.

[thebigbird]

It was mainly due to being mostly healthy the full season but LeBron scored his most total points in a season since 2018 when he was 33. Absolutely crazy he put up a near 2,000 points season in year 21.

I argued with someone before the start of the 2021 season who said Durant would pass LeBron in points. Three seasons later, years 19, 20, and 21 for LeBron, and he’s increased his lead over Durant by 66 points.

It’s similar to why I don’t think Luka has a shot. He scored a career high 2,370 points this year. If he scored 2,370 points every year for the next 12 seasons (and LeBron never scored another point), he’d still be short.

[O_6]

Big series for LeBron.

He needs to clearly outplay Murray and we have a series. I think that will happen.

He’s so much quicker now than a year ago. When he was the oldest dude in the league guarding the MVP Center and a beast PG on different possessions with ease while he was clearly limited. As the oldest player. He’s nonsensically great.

Lakers can easily win this if Russell plays well and LeBron is better than Murray.

[D.Brasco]

It was mainly due to being mostly healthy the full season but LeBron scored his most total points in a season since 2018 when he was 33. Absolutely crazy he put up a near 2,000 points season in year 21.

I argued with someone before the start of the 2021 season who said Durant would pass LeBron in points. Three seasons later, years 19, 20, and 21 for LeBron, and he’s increased his lead over Durant by 66 points.

It’s similar to why I don’t think Luka has a shot. He scored a career high 2,370 points this year. If he scored 2,370 points every year for the next 12 seasons (and LeBron never scored another point), he’d still be short.

I think Luka was asked something similar about LeBron and he outright said he has no plans to play 20 years and I do believe him.

Frankly, with the salary explosions I just don't see star players wanting or needing to stay in the league that long whether they could or not. LeBron actually doesn't get enough praise for not just being able to physically play 20+ years but actually having the mental drive to. Tom Brady was another guy like that.

-edit- I'll add I remember all the discussions back in the day if LeBron (or anybody) could ever pass Kareem's scoring record. He's now 2k points past Kareem's record which stood for near 40 years.

[ardee]

It’s similar to why I don’t think Luka has a shot. He scored a career high 2,370 points this year. If he scored 2,370 points every year for the next 12 seasons (and LeBron never scored another point), he’d still be short.

That's more of a durability problem. First time since his rookie year Luka has played 70 games. If he played 75+ a season like LeBron did most of his career he'd be on par with or probably slightly ahead of where Bron was at the same stage of his career.

[Mos_Heat]

Big series for LeBron.

He needs to clearly outplay Murray and we have a series. I think that will happen.

He’s so much quicker now than a year ago. When he was the oldest dude in the league guarding the MVP Center and a beast PG on different possessions with ease while he was clearly limited. As the oldest player. He’s nonsensically great.

Lakers can easily win this if Russell plays well and LeBron is better than Murray.

He would have to guard both Jokic and Murray for long chunks if they wanna win. I'm interested to see if he have enough in the tank.

[zimpy27]

I think Lakers split the first 2 games in Denver.

[PistolPeteJR]

I think Lakers split the first 2 games in Denver.

If they split, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

That's another advantage Denver has is that altitude. On the bright side, and hopefully, the Lakers make sure they're there right now (if not yesterday) to get used to it.

[homecourtloss]

I think Lakers split the first 2 games in Denver.

They should have split the first two games last year.

Game 1 was lost in the first seven minutes in which the Lakers gave up 10 offensive rebounds and got down 30-14. Over the next 40 minutes, the Lakers outscored the Nuggets 112-99 and had the ball down one possession, though they did have some good three point shooting luck in the last 8 minutes if the 4th.

Game 2 they led most of the way, had double digit leads in both the second and third quarters. The game was lost in two sequences:

1) In the second quarter up 47-36, they give up multiple offensive rebounds and play poor transition defense. They give up a 12-2 run in 2:30 of game play time.

2) Up 74-64 in the third, James is sitting, AD and DLo miss open shots, they give up points in transition and the Nugs go on a 10-0 run in 1:58 of game time.

So in the other 43.5 minutes, Lakers outscore Denver by 15.

Now, from a structural standpoint regarding paths to victory, a team that’s able to outscore another team on that other team’s homecourt by 30 points over a stretch of 80+ minutes means it definitely has chances and simply isn’t overmatched. The problem, though, is that seemingly every game they play comes with these little 2 or 3 minute windows in which the Lakers miss open shots and the Nugs hit stepback contested absurdity. At some point, if these little runs are expected even though there are low% shots/sequences involved, you just assume it’s going to happen.

[homecourtloss]

Lakers are by far the biggest underdogs in the playoffs. Chicago vs. the Celtics would be the biggest if it happens or Miami without Butler, but even then the odds aren’t that long.

Series’ underdogs:

Pacers/Bucks, -110 (no underdog though that would change with Giannis)
Knicks, -105
Clippers, +105
TWolves, +110
Magic, +165
Lakers, +250

[Slava]

The problem with this match up isn't just that Jokic is good skill wise, but he's also as good, if not better than Lebron in terms of processing the game at that same age. I don't see many adjustments the Lakers can make, considering the resources on this roster that Jokic cannot figure out in a quarter or two.

Any other team, they could beat down by length and physicality but even with Vando, Denver is just as big and bruising. It'd require a role player or two playing out of their minds, like Rui and Russell vs. Memphis last season to make this a competitive 6 or 7 game series.

[zimpy27]

The problem with this match up isn't just that Jokic is good skill wise, but he's also as good, if not better than Lebron in terms of processing the game at that same age. I don't see many adjustments the Lakers can make, considering the resources on this roster that Jokic cannot figure out in a quarter or two.

Any other team, they could beat down by length and physicality but even with Vando, Denver is just as big and bruising. It'd require a role player or two playing out of their minds, like Rui and Russell vs. Memphis last season to make this a competitive 6 or 7 game series.

Lakers have a whole set of strategies worked out for Denver. They just haven't tried them yet in the RS, they've backed it to be a surprise. No doubt about it.

So I'm excited to see what strategies they employ against Denver. They've had a year to work on these.

I think Dinwiddie and Vincent will slow Murray down, Murray was the actual reason Lakers lost last series. He was dominant. He scored 7 points per game more than his playoff average but took the average amount of shots. So his accuracy gave Nuggets 7 more points a game than usual. That was the difference.

[tsherkin]

So I'm excited to see what strategies they employ against Denver. They've had a year to work on these.

I think Dinwiddie and Vincent will slow Murray down, Murray was the actual reason Lakers lost last series. He was dominant. He scored 7 points per game more than his playoff average but took the average amount of shots. So his accuracy gave Nuggets 7 more points a game than usual. That was the difference.

That was A difference. It is worth remembering that Jokic put 28/15/12 on them over the series, and on just shy of 60% TS. There was no way LA was making up that offensive difference. Murray was huge, but Denver dropped 124.3 ORTG on their faces: the Lakers never had a chance. They also got smoked on the offensive glass.

And all of that was WITH Reaves managing 21/3/5 on 73.8% TS, which is unlikely to repeat. While Lebron and AD both rocked big numbers on over 60% TS themselves.

They're pretty badly outclassed against the Nuggets.