VW = ? (Rookie Season Thread)

[The Master]

Match-up against Joel Embiid

Watch on YouTube

Ofensively, he wasn't defended by Embiid in most possessions, so it was kind of boring.

What I like about Wemby in the last two months, is how much more polished his game gets week after week:

- much better shot selection (realistically, probably over-30% 3pt shooter, 33% since Dec 8th),
- vertical spacing and overall movement (mostly due to playing as a center) on display,
- face-up game (his handles and functional athleticism are already good enough to attack closeouts from the perimeter or punish weaker defenders individually),
- less risky plays on offense what make his turnover rate much better (13.8 TOV% since the first game as a starting center, pretty okay for a rookie playing on high volume: 22ppg in 27 minutes in analyzed span),
- transition offense (his athleticism is off the charts),
- some growth in low post moves (some examples on the video),
- as Spurs' game gets better, his flashes in playmaking are more visible.

And that was on display against Sixers.

I'd go with saying he's +1/+2 player offensively (within range of these EPM type of metrics): not an anchor nor reliable 2nd fiddle type of a guy, but still elite finisher - okay passer - from time to time stretch big - capable of creating his own shot in friendly matchups - elite transition big.

Defensively:

Some highlights of Joel:

Watch on YouTube

(without decent Wemby's D-possessions and foul baits, but still)

According to NBA.com, while defended by Wemby - Embiid: 10/15 FGM + 4/4 FTA (one shot blocked)

- I've seen already against AD that he needs to work - besides pnr coverage - on his 1v1 D: his mid-post effort was in some possessions rather weak (there were plays he couldn't do much more against Embiid, he's not the only player struggling with defense on Embiid operating on midrange, but there were meh possessions as well); couple of times he got foul baited (the only games he struggles with foul trouble are against decent opponents, that's encouraging as his foul rate is fantastic for a young big man overall); couple of times he was too weak to defend Embiid around a rim (understandable); two or three ridiculous possessions in which after a shot he ran to transition before the glass was secured: bad instincts, but obviously this is something very easy to work on as premise is obviously fine, he can become all-time great transition center,

- as it is quite obvious his optimal role is center offensively and typical rim protector-help defender defensively (he started this season as a power forward operating on perimeter with safety-like role on D and was completely misused both on O and D) - his biggest question mark defensively is when he'll get strong enough/1v1 good enough against superstars to bring in great individual defense (as his rebounding, rim protection and help D are already All-NBA level worthy and his DFG% numbers are great as well).

Fun game to watch.

[rk2023]

What a game yesterday’s win was for the Spurs. Through the year, they’ve played some playoff teams close (eg. MIL, CLE, SAC, MN before). Alas, was cool to finally see them prevail against such an opponent, Phoenix games in November excluded.

As for Wemby, I feel like he would be my rookie of the year at this point; the in-season improvement is nothing short of impressive (see below), and he has been leading efforts in making a team that’s still ways to go rather competitive. I believe they could have as many as 6 FRPs across the next three years, so an OKC-esque reload might not be out of the picture when thinking long term.

Read on Twitter

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Imho, he’s been playing at a fringe all-star level in aggregate this year. However, I see there being a non-zero chance for him to look like an All-NBA level talent by the end of season.

[Cavsfansince84]

I like Wemby and have since the beginning, I think his 50th percentile outcome is an MVPish level player, but he hasn't been anything spectacular so far. Flashes, sure. Holistically, he definitely looks like a 19 year old rookie. The complete lack of shooting ability as RK showed is probably the most concerning, but I still think he's on track to be an extremely good player.

And he will probably get some DPOY votes, but like, realistically, you're not a DPOY level defender if you're team's defense is 6th worst in the league.

People were way too quick to write off his outside shot imo. Pretty much every rookie struggles and most guys improve past the age of 20 as shooters. He's shooting 38% from 3 in his last 10. I don't mean this as a I gotcha. It's just like give the kid a chance to get his feet wet in the league before you write off what he can do.

[Colbinii]

I like Wemby and have since the beginning, I think his 50th percentile outcome is an MVPish level player, but he hasn't been anything spectacular so far. Flashes, sure. Holistically, he definitely looks like a 19 year old rookie. The complete lack of shooting ability as RK showed is probably the most concerning, but I still think he's on track to be an extremely good player.

And he will probably get some DPOY votes, but like, realistically, you're not a DPOY level defender if you're team's defense is 6th worst in the league.

People were way too quick to write off his outside shot imo. Pretty much every rookie struggles and most guys improve past the age of 20 as shooters. He's shooting 38% from 3 in his last 10. I don't mean this as a I gotcha. It's just like give the kid a chance to get his feet wet in the league before you write off what he can do.

Yeah I don't get the complete lack of shooting angle or description. His shot looks fine. When he makes them you aren't surprised.

This isn't a Mobley level shooter.

[Colbinii]

I think he has been the best rookie (or has the greatest highs) of any rookie in my lifetime, basically since the early 2000s, including LeBron.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think he has been the best rookie (or has the greatest highs) of any rookie in my lifetime, basically since the early 2000s, including LeBron.

Agree for sure. Miles past rookie LeBron and I think he'll still be well beyond him in year 2 as well due to his built in defensive advantage. All he needs to do is stay healthy. Best rookie since at least Duncan or Shaq I think if he keeps going at 25/10 the rest of the year on a per minute basis.

[The Master]

People were way too quick to write off his outside shot imo. Pretty much every rookie struggles and most guys improve past the age of 20 as shooters. He's shooting 38% from 3 in his last 10. I don't mean this as a I gotcha. It's just like give the kid a chance to get his feet wet in the league before you write off what he can do.

His shooting projection is extremely good for a center:

- 80% FT
- 30.5% 3pt on high volume (8 attempts per 100 possessions)
- decent mechanics
- 33% as a center/34% with Tre Jones

I took nearly all the centers/players playing some time as centers in the last three seasons (classified in top100 in BPM in 22-24 span):



Wembanyama is: 5th in FTA/100 possessions; 6th in FT%; 3rd in 3PTA/100 possessions; 12th in 3PT% (for >3PTA/100 possessions).
Holmgren is: 23th in FTA/100 possessions; 14th in FT%; 5th in 3PTA/100 possessions; 1st in 3PT% (for >3PTA/100 possessions).

Growth for players being >75% FT shooters as rookies:


(still, per100 poss)

Obviously, you still have to take with a grain of salt the differential in 3PTA/3PT% (it's a different league than in 2014 in that regard for sure); there's no mid range data as well - but still decent above average FT shooters for PF/C position improved on average by 3% in this season and by 6% in their best season vs rookie year.

And obviously, it's just general data based on which you can't project a specific growth of Wemby/Holmgren - but still, I believe, a decent example how big upside as shooters they both have.

84-85 FT% and 36-37% 3pt shooter on high volume isn't even the best case scenario for Wemby as a shooter. And on its own that would be great and GOAT-projectory for him as a player considering his defense, size, vertical spacing etc. It's not a given though, but still looks actually extremely promising.

ps

I forgot about some guys (Mobley: +11 FT% vs rookie year; Collins: +8 FT% vs his rookie year and + 12FT% with +6 3PT% in his career-best shooting splits), so maybe I'll update it in more thought of and accessible version if I have some free time to burn).

[homecourtloss]

What a game yesterday’s win was for the Spurs. Through the year, they’ve played some playoff teams close (eg. MIL, CLE, SAC, MN before). Alas, was cool to finally see them prevail against such an opponent, Phoenix games in November excluded.

As for Wemby, I feel like he would be my rookie of the year at this point; the in-season improvement is nothing short of impressive (see below), and he has been leading efforts in making a team that’s still ways to go rather competitive. I believe they could have as many as 6 FRPs across the next three years, so an OKC-esque reload might not be out of the picture when thinking long term.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=_HOjrsiLtTYaVpOZxyl7Iw

Imho, he’s been playing at a fringe all-star level in aggregate this year. However, I see there being a non-zero chance for him to look like an All-NBA level talent by the end of season.

In his last 14 games, he has made scoring look so easy despite suboptimal shot-selection. Part of this is that the Spurs aren’t really playing real games and there’s no pressure for him to win but despite suboptimal shots while being at the physically weakest, he will ever be, his averaging 44 points per game per 100 possessions since the last few days of December 2023 while playing defense though not with a full motor. The possibilities of what he can become are enormous. I’m sure the Spurs are probably thinking about shutting him down for the rest of the season in a way that doesn’t upset the NBA.

[The-Power]

I’m sure the Spurs are probably thinking about shutting him down for the rest of the season in a way that doesn’t upset the NBA.

Considering how he has improved over the course of the season, I sure hope they let him gain more valuable experience and continue to improve so he can hit the ground running for his Sophomore season. Of course they won't play him if there are any medical concerns as they'll be rightfully cautious. But IMO it would be foolish to shut a perfectly healthy Victor down anytime soon.

[The Master]

Yeah. I guess Spurs will go into semi-tank mode with occasional shutdowns of Vassell/Jones/Wemby - not some heavy-tanking shutdowns, especially considering the amount of National TV games they still have and Wemby being the only reason you can watch these bottom-5 level teams this season.

The other thing is we have 21 games/600 minutes sample of Wemby as a center making a neutral team out of Spurs and them being -10 net without him on a court (with losses to tankers such as Blazers or Hornets), so they're in quite funny position now: considering how bad these bottom-tier teams are, they may get themselves out of top5 of lottery, and that with Pop blatantly tanking in the first part of the season by lineup experiments of Sochan as a PG/twin towers of Collins-Wemby/limiting Tre's minutes etc.

So I agree that they will do SOMETHING with that.

[Colbinii]

Yeah. I guess Spurs will go into semi-tank mode with occasional shutdowns of Vassell/Jones/Wemby - not some heavy-tanking shutdowns, especially considering the amount of National TV games they still have and Wemby being the only reason you can watch these bottom-5 level teams this season.

The other thing is we have 21 games/600 minutes sample of Wemby as a center making a neutral team out of Spurs and them being -10 net without him on a court (with losses to tankers such as Blazers or Hornets), so they're in quite funny position now: considering how bad these bottom-tier teams are, they may get themselves out of top5 of lottery, and that with Pop blatantly tanking in the first part of the season by lineup experiments of Sochan as a PG/twin towers of Collins-Wemby/limiting Tre's minutes etc.

So I agree that they will do SOMETHING with that.

The irony in all of it will be the Spurs end up with pick 5, 6 or 7 and still end up with the best rookie from the class

[SNPA]

People early knocking his shooting were stat watching. He had a lot of junk in his shots, fading sideways, quick pull-ups, general frustration at not getting the ball shots. Its been fairly clear he just needed a PG and to clean up his shot diet. Now that’s happening and look at the results.

[eminence]

We’re in an era of 115+ avg offenses. Some of y’all need to re-calibrate what good/okay/bad numbers are.

[Colbinii]

We’re in an era of 115+ avg offenses. Some of y’all need to re-calibrate what good/okay/bad numbers are.

100%

Half-Court PPP is up to 99.2 PP100
In 2019, it was 94.7 PP100
In 2014, it was 88.7 PP100
In 2009, it was 89.8 PP100
In 2004, it was 83.1 PP100

To add context, you need to be making 33% of your 3P shots to just be league average in the half-court in 2024. In 2004, you needed to just be making 28% of your 3P shots to be league average and in 2019 you could manage 32% of your 3P Shots to just be average.

[Cavsfansince84]

We’re in an era of 115+ avg offenses. Some of y’all need to re-calibrate what good/okay/bad numbers are.

idk if you're speaking to anything I wrote above but 26ppg in only 27mpg are ridiculous rookie numbers by any standards(which is what he's doing since coming back from his small injury). I think people have become sort of numb to all the stats being put up in recent years but I don't think it should get in the way of appreciating what someone like Victor is doing without the benefit of volume 3 pt shooting.

[tsherkin]

People were way too quick to write off his outside shot imo. Pretty much every rookie struggles and most guys improve past the age of 20 as shooters. He's shooting 38% from 3 in his last 10. I don't mean this as a I gotcha. It's just like give the kid a chance to get his feet wet in the league before you write off what he can do.

This is a good attitude about any aspect of his game which isn't already evidently outstanding, to be honest. But even his history with FT shooting prior to the NBA was a good sign that he was going to come into his own with that shot. We've seen him hit certain types of shots which require touch and rhythm; those reverse pivot triple threat fades and what-not, right? Those are high degree-of-difficulty shots but the confidence on them is significant and his mechanics are good. He's got to clean up his shot selection... but we've been seeing that these past 2 months as San Antonio has deployed him a little differently and that's making a huge difference.

Dude has excellent potential. I spent a lot of time worrying about his health in pre-season conversations, and most of it was because watching him, it's hard not to envision him developing into an absolute unit if he just stays healthy. He's flashing absurd potential.

[Cavsfansince84]

This is a good attitude about any aspect of his game which isn't already evidently outstanding, to be honest. But even his history with FT shooting prior to the NBA was a good sign that he was going to come into his own with that shot. We've seen him hit certain types of shots which require touch and rhythm; those reverse pivot triple threat fades and what-not, right? Those are high degree-of-difficulty shots but the confidence on them is significant and his mechanics are good. He's got to clean up his shot selection... but we've been seeing that these past 2 months as San Antonio has deployed him a little differently and that's making a huge difference.

Dude has excellent potential. I spent a lot of time worrying about his health in pre-season conversations, and most of it was because watching him, it's hard not to envision him developing into an absolute unit if he just stays healthy. He's flashing absurd potential.

Shot selection is the biggest thing rookies struggle with imo. That was the biggest difference between rookie LeBron and 2nd year LeBron. Just understanding what shots need to be eliminated, what works in the nba compared to high school or college and adding new shots which make better use of a player's natural ability. People were freaking out because Wemby had a poor ts% in his first 30 games without much talent around him and without a real pg.

[tsherkin]

Shot selection is the biggest thing rookies struggle with imo.

Oh yeah. Pacing/tempo, slowing things down. Making your reads. Not forcing it. Picking your spots. That's all consistently problematic for rookies because there are just so many differences in level of competition at the NBA level. Every night, you're facing someone who was a MONSTER in college, but may be a bench warmer at this new level, and that can be brutal.

People were freaking out because Wemby had a poor ts% in his first 30 games without much talent around him and without a real pg.

This was always stupidity, for sure.

[rk2023]

https://youtu.be/PcRjJ1PDYJs?si=LRR13qAPgjpDec0T

[SNPA]

Some VW talk…

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thinking-basketball/id1428290303?i=1000644804861

…basically same take as me, it’s his league now. There is no comparison point, GOAT is on the table of outcomes.