Where would peak Kobe rank in today's league?

[One_and_Done]

In his prime, during the most difficult defensive era, Kobe was as efficient as impactful during the playoffs as he was during the regular season. He was a very resilient postseason scorer and his ability to play on or off ball, and his size and his athleticism and his all-around skillset makes him very transferrable as a player. People are putting up crazy efficiency and crazy volume as a rule now, but outside of Jokic, Giannis and Luka, none of these guys have really proven what Kobe has in the playoffs. LeBron was averaging like 30 ppg on 59 TS% back in 2010. Do we think that same LeBron doesn't average 33 on 64 TS% today? It's just so much more wide open and the pace is up and LeBron in his prime would be by far the best athlete today, still. Kobe I think could get to 33/6/6 on something like 62 TS%. I don't think that's a big reach at all. Trade in a few ill-advised long-twos, get more rim attempts at higher efficiency, abuse a game without quite as many bigs all the time, more spacing. I'm pretty certain Kobe's a top 4 or 5 guy today.

Kobe was a prisoner of that era, which was isolation heavy, fadeaways, one dribble pull-up deep twos, etc. etc. It had a lot to do with how Jordan was perceived to play and it was some of the dumbest basketball ever played. So even at his best he was a +2% TS type of player.

Assuming that he becomes a +4-5% TS type of player on the same kind of volume assumes that his approach is completely different from what we know it.

Given hos stubborn refusal to adjust his play style during his career, I think it's a stretch to think he could do this today.

[tsherkin]

Having said all of that, it’s still criminal to compare him unfavorably to Halliburton.

No it isn't. What Haliburton was doing at the time I said that was remarkable, and far superior to anything Kobe ever achieved on offense. It wasn't unreasonable, it was just a little too soon... and even still, he's outperforming Kobe offensively. It isn't a surprise, either. He's a more focused playmaker and a better shooter. He hasn't proved it in terms of deep playoff runs and all that stuff, for sure, but acting like it was "criminal" is just... illogical garbage.

[IdolW0rm]

Having said all of that, it’s still criminal to compare him unfavorably to Halliburton.

No it isn't. What Haliburton was doing at the time I said that was remarkable, and far superior to anything Kobe ever achieved on offense. It wasn't unreasonable, it was just a little too soon... and even still, he's outperforming Kobe offensively. It isn't a surprise, either. He's a more focused playmaker and a better shooter. He hasn't proved it in terms of deep playoff runs and all that stuff, for sure, but acting like it was "criminal" is just... illogical garbage.

"Hali is outperforming Kobe offensively".
Haliburton is a 20ppg scorer on +2.3 rTS%. Kobe was a 32 ppg scorer on +3.9 rTS% in 07, a 28ppg scorer on +3.6 rTS% in 08. At +2.3 rTS% (same as Hali in 23/24) Kobe was scoring over 35 a game in 06. I'm sorry but the scoring gap is just too enormous. The playmaking gap is very well in favor of Haliburton even though the spacing era inflates the numbers of pass first players with great floor scanning like Hali and this should be evident. He's a +4.0 offensive On-Off and when he's off the floor Indiana is still playing a 119 offense. Kobe also led ranked 3 offenses in his prime in 08 and 09 with +6 and +12.6 offensive On-Offs respectively and Haliburtons career ORAPM until the beginning of 2024 was a not very impressive +2.4 ORAPM.

[tsherkin]

Haliburton is a 20ppg scorer on +2.3 rTS%. Kobe was a 32 ppg scorer on +3.9 rTS% in 07, a 28ppg scorer on +3.6 rTS% in 08. At +2.3 rTS% (same as Hali in 23/24) Kobe was scoring over 35 a game in 06. I'm sorry but the scoring gap is just too enormous. The playmaking gap is very well in favor of Haliburton even though the spacing era inflates the numbers of pass first players with great floor scanning like Hali and this should be evident. He's a +4.0 offensive On-Off and when he's off the floor Indiana is still playing a 119 offense. Kobe also led ranked 3 offenses in his prime in 08 and 09 with +6 and +12.6 offensive On-Offs respectively and Haliburtons career ORAPM until the beginning of 2024 was a not very impressive +2.4 ORAPM.

Yeah, and Kobe had a good deal of help on those teams. And was, of course, baseline himself an ATG player.

Anyway, Haliburton's pre-2024 performance is irrelevant, because I was speaking of current-season Haliburton when the original remark was made. That wasn't unclear.

[Superjohnstarks]

Having said all of that, it’s still criminal to compare him unfavorably to Halliburton.

No it isn't. What Haliburton was doing at the time I said that was remarkable, and far superior to anything Kobe ever achieved on offense. It wasn't unreasonable, it was just a little too soon... and even still, he's outperforming Kobe offensively. It isn't a surprise, either. He's a more focused playmaker and a better shooter. He hasn't proved it in terms of deep playoff runs and all that stuff, for sure, but acting like it was "criminal" is just... illogical garbage.

"Hali is outperforming Kobe offensively".
Haliburton is a 20ppg scorer on +2.3 rTS%. Kobe was a 32 ppg scorer on +3.9 rTS% in 07, a 28ppg scorer on +3.6 rTS% in 08. At +2.3 rTS% (same as Hali in 23/24) Kobe was scoring over 35 a game in 06. I'm sorry but the scoring gap is just too enormous. The playmaking gap is very well in favor of Haliburton even though the spacing era inflates the numbers of pass first players with great floor scanning like Hali and this should be evident. He's a +4.0 offensive On-Off and when he's off the floor Indiana is still playing a 119 offense. Kobe also led ranked 3 offenses in his prime in 08 and 09 with +6 and +12.6 offensive On-Offs respectively and Haliburtons career ORAPM until the beginning of 2024 was a not very impressive +2.4 ORAPM.

Great Post but I think the poster was referring to when haliburton had the highest obpm ever and the pacers had a 127 ortg with him on the court.

[tsherkin]

Great Post but I think the poster was referring to when haliburton had the highest obpm ever and the pacers had a 127 ortg with him on the court.

That's correct, I was referring to that stretch earlier in the season, not Hali's entire career to date. We were, at the time, discussing who'd be top 10 in the league today.

I find one of the problems we encounter on a regular basis here is how defensive people are about stuff. I have a high opinion of Kobe's play. He had his wrinkles and whatever, but it obviously wasn't a big enough deal to get in the way of many Finals appearances and titles. His cult would like to forget the contributions of the other talent on his team, but that's hardly unique to the Cult of Bryant. You see major minimization from almost all of the star fanbases. Jordan's fans are no better, for example. To listen to them, you'd think he single-handedly won six titles after suddenly figuring it out in year 7, you know?

It's no disrespect to Kobe when, at the time, I was discussing one of the most impressive stretches we've seen offensively. Hali is STILL balling out on the high end in terms of offensive impact and has been quite impressive. He might actually still be a superior offensive player. But that doesn't necessarily mean he'd have been better for those godawful LA rosters in the mid-2000s post Shaq trade, and he likely wouldn't have been a better fit alongside Shaq/Gasol in the triangle either. IdolW0rm wasn't wrong: Kobe's ability to support mega volume was quite impressive, and Hali doesn't do that.

[Primedeion]

He'd be the same guy he was in 06...but with more inflated stats. He's doing something like 38/6/6/2/61%/124 ORTG with GOAT level offensive impact, GOAT level gravity, GOAT level isolation player, GOAT level shot making, incredibly low turnover rate, and a ridiculous combo of off-ball movement, playmaking, and passing.

He'd be the best player in the world.

[giordunk]

I think if he was in today's league his numbers would change because he's a competitive dude. He's competing against Luke and Shai as best perimeter players in the league and if Luka was out getting triple-doubles every night then you best believe Kobe is also being a near triple-double threat. If the standard of an elite player is knocking down 3s above a 40% clip then that's what Kobe is going to get to as well. The way Kobe developed his game was because MJ was the standard of what was the best so he tried his best to emulate that.

I think Kobe's numbers in today's game would be something more like 35-7-7 on around 50% shooting and slightly below 40% from 3 which would put him neck and neck with Luka and Shai.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

2nd to 5th

[Tim Lehrbach]

He'd be the same guy he was in 06...but with more inflated stats.

This may be approximately correct...

GOAT level offensive impact, GOAT level gravity, GOAT level isolation player, GOAT level shot making

...so, none of these, then.

[tsherkin]

He'd be the same guy he was in 06...but with more inflated stats.

This may be approximately correct...

GOAT level offensive impact, GOAT level gravity, GOAT level isolation player, GOAT level shot making

...so, none of these, then.

Best not to treat that as a serious post.

[Pelly24]

I think if he was in today's league his numbers would change because he's a competitive dude. He's competing against Luke and Shai as best perimeter players in the league and if Luka was out getting triple-doubles every night then you best believe Kobe is also being a near triple-double threat. If the standard of an elite player is knocking down 3s above a 40% clip then that's what Kobe is going to get to as well. The way Kobe developed his game was because MJ was the standard of what was the best so he tried his best to emulate that.

I think Kobe's numbers in today's game would be something more like 35-7-7 on around 50% shooting and slightly below 40% from 3 which would put him neck and neck with Luka and Shai.

It's crazy he put up 27/6/6 on 46% from the field in his last prime year (2012-2013). I could easily see 32/7/7 on 48/37/84 splits and 63 TS% for Kobe now. idk about 40% from three though, maybe one year.

[Primedeion]

He'd be the same guy he was in 06...but with more inflated stats.

This may be approximately correct...

GOAT level offensive impact, GOAT level gravity, GOAT level isolation player, GOAT level shot making

...so, none of these, then.

Ok buddy.

[Tim Lehrbach]

He'd be the same guy he was in 06...but with more inflated stats.

This may be approximately correct...

GOAT level offensive impact, GOAT level gravity, GOAT level isolation player, GOAT level shot making

...so, none of these, then.

Ok buddy.

Kobe was a great player. Nothing we know at this time points to these being true.

Gravity is the closest: he could score from everywhere and would shoot from anywhere. I believe we are immature in our studies of whether and how this warps defenses and affects shot quality for teammates. It's entirely possible Kobe is the exemplar of a type that messes your team's defensive scheme up. I mean, somehow his Lakers produced very good offense most years. He used a ton of possessions on teams with good offenses. It stands to reason his gravity played a role...

...but impact is a measurement of what happens to the score when you're on the court. We know that Kobe's minutes didn't produce the lift that the greatest of the era for which we have data did. This doesn't mean he wasn't an offensive savant, but it does mean you can't throw out "GOAT level offensive impact."

We have data for iso possessions. Kobe isn't at the top.

"GOAT level shot making" is subjective, but how do you place Kobe above, e.g., Steph Curry, who took equally difficult shots and yielded more effective results? And then there's Jordan, who out-Kobe'd Kobe before there was ever a Kobe.

My post was snarky, but why can't we give Kobe due credit without imagining things he never achieved? I actually quite like your first line: Kobe today would do Kobe things and probably yield eye-popping stats and good team results. Why make more of that than we need to properly appreciate the guy?

[Primedeion]

This may be approximately correct...



...so, none of these, then.

Ok buddy.

Kobe was a great player. Nothing we know at this time points to these being true.

Gravity is the closest: he could score from everywhere and would shoot from anywhere. I believe we are immature in our studies of whether and how this warps defenses and affects shot quality for teammates. It's entirely possible Kobe is the exemplar of a type that messes your team's defensive scheme up. I mean, somehow his Lakers produced very good offense most years. He used a ton of possessions on teams with good offenses. It stands to reason his gravity played a role...

...but impact is a measurement of what happens to the score when you're on the court. We know that Kobe's minutes didn't produce the lift that the greatest of the era for which we have data did. This doesn't mean he wasn't an offensive savant, but it does mean you can't throw out "GOAT level offensive impact."

We have data for iso possessions. Kobe isn't at the top.

"GOAT level shot making" is subjective, but how do you place Kobe above, e.g., Steph Curry, who took equally difficult shots and yielded more effective results? And then there's Jordan, who out-Kobe'd Kobe before there was ever a Kobe.

My post was snarky, but why can't we give Kobe due credit without imagining things he never achieved? I actually quite like your first line: Kobe today would do Kobe things and probably yield eye-popping stats and good team results. Why make more of that than we need to properly appreciate the guy?

Do you not know how to read? We're discussing his PEAK. Didn't produce the same sort of offensive lift? He had THE HIGHEST offensive on/off EVER recorded by pbp (+20.77). He was #1 in offensive RAPM, #1 in intraocular's pure offensive APM, #1 in O-RAPTOR, #1 in O-EPM, 1 offensive PI RAPM, #1 in single season NPI RAPM, #1 in offensive SPI, #1 in offensive PIPM, #1 in offensive RPM, #1 in offensive APM, #1 in backpicks offensive BPM, #1 in luck adjusted offensive on/off, etc

06 Kobe is quite literally at the top of virtually EVERY offensive impact metric. Do you have any idea what you're talking about?

-highest offensive on/off EVER recorded by b-ball ref (+19)
--highest offensive on/off EVER recorded by pbp stats (+21!)
--essentially tied for the second highest inflation-adjusted scoring rate in league history

---bottom ten turnover rate in the league

---GOAT level isolation player (91% in efficiency with 15 iso possessions a game, which tops EVERY iso season of the post Jordan era ito volume/efficiency outside of peak Harden, who played with considerably better spacing and iso mismatches)

--great playmaker(ranked top five in the league in box creation)

Oh, and he had more positive impact on his teammates TS% than any player in the league outside Nash:

Will only be using players who played 900+ minutes with Kobe. (8 players overall)
Lamar Odom
Minutes with Kobe: 2,713
TS%: 55.9
Minutes without Kobe: 507
TS%: 55.1
+0.8% increase


Smush Parker
Minutes with Kobe: 2,430
TS%: 56.5
Minutes without Kobe: 344
TS%: 42.7
+13.8% increase (!!!)
Parker shot 36.6% from 3 on 4.0 attempts overall. With Kobe 38.5%, without 22.5%…


Kwame Brown
Minutes with Kobe: 1,667
TS%: 55.8%
Minutes without Kobe: 507
TS%: 49.5%
+6.3% increase

Chris Mihm
Minutes with Kobe: 1,667
TS%: 55.3
Minutes without Kobe: 156
TS%: 50.0
+5.3% increase

Brian Cook
Minutes with Kobe: 1,305
TS%: 57.6
Minutes without Kobe: 230
TS%: 56.2
+1.4% increase

Devean George
Minutes with Kobe: 1,088
TS%: 50.5
Minutes without Kobe: 454
TS%: 44.0
+6.5% increase
·
Sasha Vujacic
Minutes with Kobe: 941
TS%: 48.2
Minutes without Kobe: 507
TS%: 46.4
+1.8% increase

Luke Walton
Minutes with Kobe: 922
TS%: 50.6
Minutes without Kobe: 410
TS%: 41.7
+8.9% increase

Your post is almost as hilarious as that other genius suggesting Tyrese Haliburton is having a superior offensive peak.

[Tim Lehrbach]

Ok buddy.

Kobe was a great player. Nothing we know at this time points to these being true.

Gravity is the closest: he could score from everywhere and would shoot from anywhere. I believe we are immature in our studies of whether and how this warps defenses and affects shot quality for teammates. It's entirely possible Kobe is the exemplar of a type that messes your team's defensive scheme up. I mean, somehow his Lakers produced very good offense most years. He used a ton of possessions on teams with good offenses. It stands to reason his gravity played a role...

...but impact is a measurement of what happens to the score when you're on the court. We know that Kobe's minutes didn't produce the lift that the greatest of the era for which we have data did. This doesn't mean he wasn't an offensive savant, but it does mean you can't throw out "GOAT level offensive impact."

We have data for iso possessions. Kobe isn't at the top.

"GOAT level shot making" is subjective, but how do you place Kobe above, e.g., Steph Curry, who took equally difficult shots and yielded more effective results? And then there's Jordan, who out-Kobe'd Kobe before there was ever a Kobe.

My post was snarky, but why can't we give Kobe due credit without imagining things he never achieved? I actually quite like your first line: Kobe today would do Kobe things and probably yield eye-popping stats and good team results. Why make more of that than we need to properly appreciate the guy?

Do you not know how to read? We're discussing his PEAK. Didn't produce the same sort of offensive lift? He had THE HIGHEST offensive on/off EVER recorded by pbp (+20.77). He was #1 in offensive RAPM, #1 in intraocular's pure offensive APM, #1 in O-RAPTOR, #1 in O-EPM, 1 offensive PI RAPM, #1 in single season NPI RAPM, #1 in offensive SPI, #1 in offensive PIPM, #1 in offensive RPM, #1 in offensive APM, #1 in backpicks offensive BPM, #1 in luck adjusted offensive on/off, etc

06 Kobe is quite literally at the top of virtually EVERY offensive impact metric. Do you have any idea what you're talking about?

-highest offensive on/off EVER recorded by b-ball ref (+19)
--highest offensive on/off EVER recorded by pbp stats (+21!)
--essentially tied for the second highest inflation-adjusted scoring rate in league history

---bottom ten turnover rate in the league

---GOAT level isolation player (91% in efficiency with 15 iso possessions a game, which tops EVERY iso season of the post Jordan era ito volume/efficiency outside of peak Harden, who played with considerably better spacing and iso mismatches)

--great playmaker(ranked top five in the league in box creation)

Oh, and he had more positive impact on his teammates TS% than any player in the league outside Nash:

Will only be using players who played 900+ minutes with Kobe. (8 players overall)
Lamar Odom
Minutes with Kobe: 2,713
TS%: 55.9
Minutes without Kobe: 507
TS%: 55.1
+0.8% increase


Smush Parker
Minutes with Kobe: 2,430
TS%: 56.5
Minutes without Kobe: 344
TS%: 42.7
+13.8% increase (!!!)
Parker shot 36.6% from 3 on 4.0 attempts overall. With Kobe 38.5%, without 22.5%…


Kwame Brown
Minutes with Kobe: 1,667
TS%: 55.8%
Minutes without Kobe: 507
TS%: 49.5%
+6.3% increase

Chris Mihm
Minutes with Kobe: 1,667
TS%: 55.3
Minutes without Kobe: 156
TS%: 50.0
+5.3% increase

Brian Cook
Minutes with Kobe: 1,305
TS%: 57.6
Minutes without Kobe: 230
TS%: 56.2
+1.4% increase

Devean George
Minutes with Kobe: 1,088
TS%: 50.5
Minutes without Kobe: 454
TS%: 44.0
+6.5% increase
·
Sasha Vujacic
Minutes with Kobe: 941
TS%: 48.2
Minutes without Kobe: 507
TS%: 46.4
+1.8% increase

Luke Walton
Minutes with Kobe: 922
TS%: 50.6
Minutes without Kobe: 410
TS%: 41.7
+8.9% increase

Your post is almost as hilarious as that other genius suggesting Tyrese Haliburton is having a superior offensive peak.

As a matter of fact, I will own it. You specifically referenced '06 Bryant, and I have no reason to disbelieve your numbers. I can recall doing my own searches of the impact data and being duly impressed by the carry job, too.

I don't think of peaks as isolated to one season, or rather I don't think "peak" is all that meaningful in evaluating players, and therefore didn't even look to verify your claims for one-year peak. But it's a reasonable assumption that I would or should have -- one year is commonly understood as peak, and that WAS the question of the thread.

I have always been highest on '06 Kobe of any edition (to the extent that I distinguish single-seasons at all), but I guess my Kobe-fan-o-meter klaxon was blaring and I lumped you in with those who extrapolate his statistical and team highlights to his entire prime.

In any case, you brought data and I appreciate being called on reading what I wanted to into your post. @ me.

[Mazter]

One of the main characteristics of Kobe was his work ethic. It was innovative and trendsetting. Offseason workout routines of 6 hours a day, 6 days a week with a personal trainer was unique back then. Hence the problem...

For almost any player in history who had their prime during or before Kobe's prime an assumption of improvement in skill or shooting can be made. They would probably train more, better and harder in today's game. With Kobe, this can't be done. He already did that. The version of Kobe we saw back then was the best possible version of him. Given he had a personal trainer, training more hours or more days (7 days without rest?) probably wasn't really an option, otherwise he would have done it.

Secondly, given that he was one of the few, if not the only one, following that regimen he really had an edge over the rest of the league. Today he really wouldn't, now you even have D-leaguers and undraftees doing it just to get into the NBA. In general the league puts in more training hours, especially outside team practice. The middle of the pack, the bench players and minor leaguer's have improved a lot. The "dominance" he was considered to have would always be less today then back then.

Another thing is his slash line. The assumption is that Kobe was some sort of super human slasher. Kobe was still just 25 when the handcheck rule was changed and the rise of the slashers began. He was barely a top 5 among guards in shots at the rim before the rule change and after he even dropped as low as 12th in a year he won the scoring title. He never was the best slasher, never got closer after the rule change and probably wouldn't be anywhere closer today.

No superior slashing skill, an above average midrange shot, an average 3 point shot, no workout regimen edge, no Phil Jackson...

[ceoofkobefans]

I think he’d be the best in the league but Jokic is right there with him. Everyone else clearly behind but Giannis is the closest to them

[One_and_Done]

I think he’d be the best in the league but Jokic is right there with him. Everyone else clearly behind but Giannis is the closest to them

I doubt he'd even be the best Laker.

[SilentA]

Top 5 for sure, with a debatable case for top 3, assuming given a summer + half a season to adapt to modern evolutions and on a similarly decent team (let's say Kobe from anywhere between 08-10 is signed after the all star break in 2023 and we're assessing his 2024 season).

With how studious, competitive and skilled he was, with decent athleticism, I see peak Kobe with the intelligence to adapt to modern norms (despite some intrinsic selfish tendencies which will remain) as having a case to be best wing player above SGA, Ant, Tatum, etc. Worse passer than Luka but better defender, so that one is harder to call.

Kobe's legacy was more cultural impact and longevity tbh. #2 shooting guard all time still, but if we're looking strictly at peak in not sure if he even beats Wade.