How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you?

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Re: How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you? 

Post#41 » by TheGOATRises007 » Thu Apr 4, 2024 1:24 am

lessthanjake wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
Jaqua92 wrote:
You nailed it. He pops up in every single MJ and Jokic thread spewing this nonsense. He just oozes confirmation bias with biases against MJ and Jokic.

Confirmation bias...like vaguely alluding to what I do "every thread" to cover for a youtuber bringing up nonsense isolation numbers because they look good for a player you like defending?
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=111949673#p111949673

Anyone who reads "not bad" as a meaningful defense of an alleged goat is clearly practicing confirmation bias. If that person than proceeds to undead a week old thread to say it's the other party doing the bias confirming, then that aforementioned someone is also practicing "projection".

Why does ball-handling matter? Let's ask Iverson, Magic, and Stockton:
Spoiler:
OhayoKD wrote:If we look to the tape:


Assist 1: creates an open jumper by drawing a double and then makes a 3rd defender linger with a on-time and on point cross-court jump-pass. 2 defenders taken out completely, and a third hindered. I'd grade that as a good or borderline great creation.

Assist 2: Transition, draws and manipulates one defender to make a layup lane for his teammate. Really more captializing on a good oppurtinity then generating one, so i'll just say this is decent

Assist 3: Completely takes 2 defenders out of the play by dribbling around them(notable how frantically they double), sets up a semi-contested look, I'd say it's good creation. Maybe he could have made a wide-open look by passing it when he gets the ball instead of dribbling.

Assist 4: Takes out one defender by dribbling, another with his pass, and also freezes Shaq with his eyes allowing for his teammate to take a step for a higher quality look(though he was set-up for a open jumper). Great creation imo. Just excellent playmaking, with Iverson's combination of manipulation, ball-handling, and passing all combining to almost singlehandedly nuetralize the defense.

Assist 5: Iverson knifes through LA and takes out [b]3 defenders to set up hill with a semi-open jumper. [/b]I'd grade that as a great creation too though based on the shot I can see the argument for good(maybe he could have passed it a beat earlier?)

Assist 6: Iverson recovers from nearly losing the ball and takes out 1 defender with a pass while also getting Kobe out of position. Scorer still has to do alot of work after so I'm just calling it decent.

Overall, Per-assist Iverson is taking out nearly 2 defenders completely and his passes are generally accurate and well-timed with a combination of scoring gravity, handles, and manipulation turning good passing into great creation.

Contrast with:
By my count(stopped my tracking at 5:35 for those who want to vet), of Stockton's first 10 assists:
4 saw him take out multiple defenders out of a play
1 resulted in a wide-open shot

Of Magic's first 10 assists:

6 saw him take out multiple defenders
4 resulted in wide open looks


Just like with Nash(near the top of page), checking the tape shows us that Magic's assists create more than Stockton's do. Magic is drawing extra defenders and creating openings as a ball-handler in a way Stockton just doesn't.

And on that note, while this specific watch was centered around assists, Magic was clearly dealing with more defenders on his scores than Stockton was and, all else being equal; scoring in plays where you are dealing with multiple defenders is harder to replace and less teammate-dependent than scoring in plays in single coverage(or wide open).


TLDR:
-> Better ball-handlers draw more defensive attention.
-> Better ball-handlers take out more opposing defenders before a shot attempt


If you have to caveat jokic's handling with "for a center" or praise him for being "not bad", then ball-handling is a weakness, just as defending low paint-protection load with "for a guard" would single protecting the paint as a weakness.

Refusing to acknowledge Jokic's weaknesses as weaknesses is a key step in "not allowing any mold to be better than the mold of player you've decided is the best".

Of course if you think defense and ball-handling are not meaningful because PER and it's cousins said so, there's a more effective means of proving this than misusing English("confirmation bias"): show the results.

More specifically, show the results that indicate Jokic is an outlier on offense and comparable to the very best ever at impacting winning.

When you or ltj or peregrine answer that bell, "confirmation bias" becomes a viable talking point, as opposed to you just yapping because your conception of winning basketball has little to no basis in reality.


I already addressed the vast majority of this just a few posts above in this thread, so I won’t repeat any of that and would just direct others to read my prior post in tandem with yours and see what they think.

But one thing I want to add is that I actually disagree with the notion that adding a “for a center” caveat means it is bad. Because, you see, every team has a center, and centers usually cannot handle the ball much. So if you have a player who is a fantastic ball-handler “for a center,” your team will very likely have more ball-handling skill on the court at once than if you had a player that was an equally good ball-handler but at a different position. This has really important benefits, because it means you can leverage things that a team with an equally good ball-handler at a different position could not. For example, having your center be a great ball-handler that can run the fast break is often a major benefit to transition offense, because it means the guy who rebounds the ball the most can immediately run the break. If you have an equally good ball-handler at a different position, that is less common. It also means that your center that spreads the floor is also a threat to drive to the basket off a pump fake. Adding another player that is a real threat to put the ball on the court after receiving a pass puts significant additional pressure on the defense. I could go on.

Basically, the fact that Jokic has the ball-handling of a guard while being a center is actually a genuinely bigger boost to his team than having a guard (or forward) with that ball-handling, because the counterfactual isn’t the same. The typical center can’t handle the ball, while the typical guard can, so a great ball-handling center is a bigger delta. Jokic’s freakish ball-handling “for a center” is a huge positive, even if his ball-handling might not be as good in absolute terms as some of the best ball handling guards and wings of all time. Of course, the flip side of this is that we could say the same thing about some other aspects of Jokic’s game in ways that would cut against him: For instance, his incredible rebounding is less of a boost to his team than it would be if he rebounded like that as a guard. His lack of rim protection is worse for his team since he is a center than if he was a guard. Etc. But I think we all generally recognize those things and discussion about him does contextualize his strengths and weaknesses based on his position. And you certainly do when it suits you. Ball handling should be the same. But, of course, if you reject that way of thinking about things, then you should really see the parts of my earlier post talking about the advantages in terms of size and strength that Jokic has over other GOAT-offensive-player candidates. If Jokic’s ball-handling is a negative even though he’s a great ball-handler for his position, then Jokic’s size and strength (which, by the way, draws huge amounts of “defensive attention”) is an absolutely enormous positive compared to great offensive guards and forwards and you can’t turn around and say that that positive is mitigated by the fact that they aren’t centers.


Off-topic, but your signature post is hilarious :lol:

It's amazing that he actually compared LeBron and Messi.
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Re: How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you? 

Post#42 » by uberhikari » Tue May 7, 2024 4:58 am

This series vs MIN is exactly why I have reservations about putting Jokic in the top 10 or any offensive GOAT debate. He plays in an era that maximizes his offensive impact and minimizes his defensive deficiencies.

There are very few dominant defensive big men and as soon as Jokic has to play a series vs a team with size (Reid, KAT, Gobert) he starts looking pedestrian. Jokic is dominating in the low-post in a league filled with munchkins.

And since the league has become more about space he's not getting attacked in the paint as much as he would be in the past. But now he's getting flame-broiled by Ant. Ant-man has handles and dynamic athleticism so he's getting free runs to the basket vs Jokic. Jokic is being put in the blender on every P&R.

The series isn't over but unless Jokic shows that he can really up his scoring volume like prime Shaq/Hakeem/Kareem vs this MIN frontline this series will be a stinging indictment.
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Re: How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you? 

Post#43 » by OhayoKD » Tue May 7, 2024 5:30 am

uberhikari wrote:This series vs MIN is exactly why I have reservations about putting Jokic in the top 10 or any offensive GOAT debate. He plays in an era that maximizes his offensive impact and minimizes his defensive deficiencies.

There are very few dominant defensive big men

This was somewhat true in the west. Not for the league as a whole. And not true this year with Jokic wearing down against AD (without a torn plantar facis) and Gobert in quick succession. I'm also not sure the personnel really existed to do what the wolves did to Jokic when he crossed half-court was there and the rules make things much easier for a Jokic once your cross the illegal defense rubicon.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you? 

Post#44 » by uberhikari » Wed May 8, 2024 4:46 am

OhayoKD wrote:
uberhikari wrote:This series vs MIN is exactly why I have reservations about putting Jokic in the top 10 or any offensive GOAT debate. He plays in an era that maximizes his offensive impact and minimizes his defensive deficiencies.

There are very few dominant defensive big men

This was somewhat true in the west. Not for the league as a whole. And not true this year with Jokic wearing down against AD (without a torn plantar facis) and Gobert in quick succession. I'm also not sure the personnel really existed to do what the wolves did to Jokic when he crossed half-court was there and the rules make things much easier for a Jokic once your cross the illegal defense rubicon.


Can you explain what you mean? I'm not sure I understand you.
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Re: How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you? 

Post#45 » by OhayoKD » Wed May 8, 2024 5:18 am

uberhikari wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
uberhikari wrote:This series vs MIN is exactly why I have reservations about putting Jokic in the top 10 or any offensive GOAT debate. He plays in an era that maximizes his offensive impact and minimizes his defensive deficiencies.

There are very few dominant defensive big men

This was somewhat true in the west. Not for the league as a whole. And not true this year with Jokic wearing down against AD (without a torn plantar facis) and Gobert in quick succession. I'm also not sure the personnel really existed to do what the wolves did to Jokic when he crossed half-court was there and the rules make things much easier for a Jokic once your cross the illegal defense rubicon.


Can you explain what you mean? I'm not sure I understand you.

TLDR: "there are very few dominant defensive big men" is wrong
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you? 

Post#46 » by Special_Puppy » Thu May 9, 2024 12:39 pm

uberhikari wrote:This series vs MIN is exactly why I have reservations about putting Jokic in the top 10 or any offensive GOAT debate. He plays in an era that maximizes his offensive impact and minimizes his defensive deficiencies.

There are very few dominant defensive big men and as soon as Jokic has to play a series vs a team with size (Reid, KAT, Gobert) he starts looking pedestrian. Jokic is dominating in the low-post in a league filled with munchkins.

And since the league has become more about space he's not getting attacked in the paint as much as he would be in the past. But now he's getting flame-broiled by Ant. Ant-man has handles and dynamic athleticism so he's getting free runs to the basket vs Jokic. Jokic is being put in the blender on every P&R.

The series isn't over but unless Jokic shows that he can really up his scoring volume like prime Shaq/Hakeem/Kareem vs this MIN frontline this series will be a stinging indictment.


I have Curry as the best offensive player of the past 10 years, but this is just about the hardest possible circumstance for any player. Timberwolves are a historically good defense. Jokic has essentially only 2 above average teammates now with Murray (and probably KCP too) absolutely hobbled by injuries.
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Re: How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you? 

Post#47 » by uberhikari » Thu May 9, 2024 2:48 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:
uberhikari wrote:This series vs MIN is exactly why I have reservations about putting Jokic in the top 10 or any offensive GOAT debate. He plays in an era that maximizes his offensive impact and minimizes his defensive deficiencies.

There are very few dominant defensive big men and as soon as Jokic has to play a series vs a team with size (Reid, KAT, Gobert) he starts looking pedestrian. Jokic is dominating in the low-post in a league filled with munchkins.

And since the league has become more about space he's not getting attacked in the paint as much as he would be in the past. But now he's getting flame-broiled by Ant. Ant-man has handles and dynamic athleticism so he's getting free runs to the basket vs Jokic. Jokic is being put in the blender on every P&R.

The series isn't over but unless Jokic shows that he can really up his scoring volume like prime Shaq/Hakeem/Kareem vs this MIN frontline this series will be a stinging indictment.


I have Curry as the best offensive player of the past 10 years, but this is just about the hardest possible circumstance for any player. Timberwolves are a historically good defense. Jokic has essentially only 2 above average teammates now with Murray (and probably KCP too) absolutely hobbled by injuries.


I don't care if he loses. What he can't do is go 5/13 when Rudy Gobert isn't even playing while his team gets **** stomped on his home court.
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Re: How many more years for Jokic to be in top 10 contention for you? 

Post#48 » by web123888 » Fri May 10, 2024 12:59 am

Jokic is not a GOAT peak player.

If he doesn’t get a 2nd ring he will never enter the top 10 conversation.

Fortunately for him even if Nuggets flame out early this year he should still have several more opportunities going forward.

Second ring probably puts him close to if not in the top 10 due to his 3 MVP’s and gaudy regular season and playoffs stats.

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