RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #87 Shawn Marion

Post #1 » by **Doctor MJ** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:53 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Cliff Hagan

Al Horford

Shawn Marion

Bill Sharman

Bill Walton

As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet

Post #2 » by **penbeast0** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 5:17 pm

Vote: Shawn Marion A superactive defender and great finisher but not a guy who created his own offense. Excellent shotblocker for a forward, though not AK47 but his prime was significantly longer and more consistent. Phoenix didn't miss a beat when Amare went out for the year, replaced by Kurt Thomas and Boris Diaw, as Nash and Marion kept the offensive production high while Marion kept up his job of being all over the court defensively. Even post-prime, as Marion's offensive production greatly slowed, he was still the main defender on LeBron James's epic finals fail during Dallas's title run. Certainly that's on LeBron to a large degree but Marion and the Dallas defense deserves some credit for keeping him down and not letting him turn it around.

Alternate Vote Bill Sharman Best shooting guard of his era, combined relatively good scoring with relatively good defense for an extended period. Still valuable up into the 60s. Like Hagan, he played in a weak era but played at the top level for longer.

Nominate: Jayon Tatum Short prime but consistent two way performer. Have him slightly above Luke for defense and ability to fit into team mold though Luka is more spectacular and heliocentric.

Alt Nomination: Mel Daniels: Could also say Luka Doncic here but Mel is getting ignored despite being the best player on 3 champions and a 2 time ABA MVP. It was a weak league still; by the time it got strong he had been surpassed by Artis Gilmore and Zelmo Beatty also had one year where he was probably the best center in the league, but 4 1st team All-ABA, 7 time All-Star and a consistent winner makes Daniels a guy to consider here.

Most similar modern player would be Alonzo Mourning with better rebounding but without the great shotblocking. Both became greats through sheer aggression and a willingness to fight you every inch of every possession.

AEnigma · Post #3 » by **AEnigma** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 5:41 pm

VOTE: Al Horford
Alternate: Shawn Marion
NOMINATION: Jack Sikma
AltNom: TBD

Twenty names I am considering for nomination:

Guards — Gus Williams, Jrue Holiday, Bob Davies, Baron Davis, Terry Porter, Luka Doncic
Feel fine about all these names potentially making the top 100. Mike Conley and Tim Hardaway first to miss the cut. Jrue is the only one with any meaningful longevity, but he also has the least impressive peak and one of the lower number of postseasons while also probably being the least likely to elevate his play in the postseason. Do like representing the three title winners here.

Forwards — Metta Artest, Andre Iguodala, Alex English, Grant Hill, Billy Cunningham, James Worthy, Jayson Tatum, Chet Walker, Dominique Wilkins
Dandridge is the first cut; I think Iguodala is a better evolution of Dandridge, and while I do not feel Chet was appreciably better than Dandridge (aside from some disappointingly elastic scoring), he is more easily inserted into the conversation. On that note, I would probably rather have Roger Brown for a playoff run — although his prime was short, without the stronger peak play of Tatum/Hill/Cunningham.

Bigs — Jack Sikma, Vlade Divac, Zelmo Beaty, Marc Gasol, Bob McAdoo
Pretty soft on all these names, but I am backing Sikma because the 1978-82 Sonics deserve some representational figure and three of you are giving him your alternate nomination.* Not antagonistic to names like Grant or Bosh or Aldridge, but Aldridge accomplished nearly nothing, Bosh had his career cut a bit short and never accomplished anything without Lebron (main criticism here is how in 2007 he faded with home-court against an inferior regular season team with its own depth issues), and Grant was only ever a fringe all-star figure to me. All three are in my top 125, but for top 100, any support I give will be pretty passive.

*will note that Sikma having a bunch of alternate nominations will not matter until someone else gives him a primary nomination…

falcolombardi · Post #4 » by **falcolombardi** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:09 pm

Of the names here i really want to convince myself of voting walton but i dont think i would prefer walton career on my team over al horford as the title window is too short even with walton greatness so while im absolute terms waltok gives you a way better shot at a title season vs season that is circustational to walton being healthy for his 1/2 playoff runs in a competing situation

Vote- Al horford, always been a big fan of his play, strong longevity, high quality second/third star kind of guy who is a seamless fit in most teams

Alt vote: marion for a long career of well above average wing play, was a really hard choice to not pick walton here

nomimation: luka doncic, thought about tatum but the longevity edge is not that big of a needle mover for me (i dont think 19 tatum is much better than 19 lika or that pre 19 tatum was a big plus player) and the playoffs longevity advantage tstum has mostly comes down to him being in a well oiled (regular season) machine rather than some superior floor raising/reg season/durability over luka

In the other end luka to me is just on a clearly higher tier come playoffs time, the celtics likely have a ring in 2022 with luka, the mavs prolly still miss playoffs in 2023 with tatum

I am unsure of alt nomination for now but will go with horace grant who i have always liked a lot as a proto stretch 4 for the era who also was a strong rebounder and defender, kind of a ideal teammate with borderline or low end all star level of play for a weak 90's era

Vote-al horford
Alt vote- marion
nom- luka
Alt nom- horace grant

trelos6 · Post #5 » by **trelos6** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:20 pm

Vote: Marion

Another guy who's been voted in 77-78 in the last 3 projects. Not a flashy scorer, but he was a high impact player. A couple of seasons of efficient scoring alongside prime Nash, but otherwise, he was around league average in rTS%. I have him with 6 ALL D level seasons. He was a beast defensively, as a giant wing who could rebound with the best of them.

Looking at his PIPM, he had 3 really good peak years, which were borderline weak MVP level. I err on the side of caution, so I only have them as ALL NBA level seasons, but ultimately, his great peak and defensive play is what gets him here.

Alt vote: Al Horford

Some uninspiring choices. Walton, his peak was great, but it was 2 seasons. Hagan, around 4 great years with the one amazing post season run, but again, I see him fringe top 100. Probably wouldn’t mind him at 95-100. Parker has some good rORTG numbers, but played with Manu and Duncan. It was a toss up between a guy who played a long time as a facilitator vs a guy who played a long time as a very good defensive player.

Ultimately, I’m going with Horford because I’m a homer. But also because when Horford has played in the green, I see how valuable he has been. Whether dominating Embiid, canning 3’s or working in the DHO with IT4, Horford has played exceptionally well. For his career he is a +4 in RAPM, +2 on O, -2 on D. He can plug and play with just about any team (sorry Philly).

Nom: Jack Sikma

Flipping to Sikma for political reasons. Defensive anchor of the Late 70's early 80's Sonics. Historically, he's made the top 100 careers list every time, ranging from 78-99. I know I use PIPM graphs a lot, but Sikma's truly shows his value.

We can see that defensively, he was always an impactful player, with several seasons worthy of All D level. He was also playing at an all star level for 10-11 years. Offensively, his ability to shoot the ball, and free throws, cannot be overrated. A player vastly ahead of his time, I think he would thrive in the modern era.

alt. Nom: Terry Porter

88-93 in the last 2 projects. I have him with 6 very strong seasons, 2 of which I have at a weak MVP level. His career had some longevity to it, though it wasn't at any great level.

These can be seen on his career PIPM graph.

His 3 year post season peak from 90-92, he averaged 20 pp75 on + 10.6 rTS%. I think an efficient PG makes team building so much easier, and if they can also not be a turnstile on defense, it helps even more. Porter did that really well. Playoff Porter increased both his usage and shooting against playoff defenses, and that's not something that can be said of a lot of players.

Samurai · Post #6 » by **Samurai** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:52 pm

I will admit that Sharman played before my time. While he appears to be the elite shooter of his era, does anyone have a sense as to how he was on defense? I'd like to get a better understanding of his all-around game before I get behind him.

Special_Puppy · Post #7 » by **Special_Puppy** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:27 pm

You did Giannis dirty with that pic lol

trelos6 · Post #8 » by **trelos6** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 9:56 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:You did Giannis dirty with that pic lol

When Big Daddy Al drives to the hoop, y'all better get out of the way.

Post #9 » by **penbeast0** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:40 pm

Samurai wrote:I will admit that Sharman played before my time. While he appears to be the elite shooter of his era, does anyone have a sense as to how he was on defense? I'd like to get a better understanding of his all-around game before I get behind him.

His defensive rep among his peers is pretty good. He was considered smart and aggressive and his size wasn't a major problem in the 50s the way it would have been as the 60s progressed. I'd say Klay Thompson equivalent.

From NBA.com History

Sharman would spend the next decade playing on Boston Garden’s parquet floor, establishing shooting records and building a reputation for his fierce, aggressive defensive style.

...

“Bill was tough,” (Jerry) West recalled in the Los Angeles Times. “I’ll tell you this, you did not drive by him. He got into more fights than Mike Tyson. You respected him as a player.”

DSMok1 · Post #10 » by **DSMok1** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:43 pm

For those comparing Tatum and Doncic, I want to point out that while Doncic is a little better on offense, Tatum is worlds better on defense. The RAPM impact numbers are dramatically in Tatum's favor. He shows as a consistent plus seven or plus eight over the past 4 years while Doncic has never gotten above +5.

eminence · Post #11 » by **eminence** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:11 am

Don't think I'd quite have Tatum on my list yet over the older full career guys (given no '24), but do prefer him pretty cleanly over Luka.

DSMok1 · Post #12 » by **DSMok1** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:16 pm

OK, as promised here are the 3-year stint RAPM results for relevant modern players. These are stints with a minimum of 5000 minutes, so at least 2 solid seasons within the 3 year window covered by a given run.

This RAPM uses a new custom prior at the season level that is based on team efficiency, 2D position/role, minutes, and accolades. (For instance, an All-Star appearance in a given season increases the prior by +1 on offense.)

Code: Select all

3 Year Stints within the 1997-2023 era above points/100 possession thresholds
5000 Min. Minimum       >8     >7     >6     >5     >3     >1
Al Horford               0      0      0      0      3     13
Andre Iguodala           0      0      1      2      5     15
Andre Miller             0      0      0      0      1     11
Andrei Kirilenko         0      1      2      3      6      8
Baron Davis              0      0      0      4      7     10
Carmelo Anthony          0      0      0      0      3     11
Chris Bosh               0      0      1      2      7     11
Deron Williams           0      0      0      0      1      9
Elton Brand              0      0      0      1      4      7
Jayson Tatum             1      2      2      4      5      5
Jrue Holiday             0      0      1      3      8     11
Klay Thompson            0      0      0      1      4      7
Lamar Odom               0      0      0      0      4     10
Lamarcus Aldridge        0      0      0      2     11     13
Luka Doncic              0      0      0      0      3      3
Luol Deng                0      0      0      0      5     11
Marc Gasol               0      0      0      0      6     10
Metta World Peace        0      1      1      5      7     10
Paul Milsap              0      0      0      1     12     13
Peja Stojakovic          0      0      0      0      2     10
Rashard Lewis            0      0      0      1      5     10
Shawn Marion             0      0      0      0      4      8
Tony Parker              0      0      0      1      5     11
Vlade Divac              0      0      0      0      5      7
Yao Ming                 0      0      0      1      6      6

By point of comparison---LeBron has 13 stints above +8, and Duncan has 10.

eminence · Post #13 » by **eminence** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:58 pm

DSMok1 wrote:OK, as promised here are the 3-year stint RAPM results for relevant modern players. These are stints with a minimum of 5000 minutes, so at least 2 solid seasons within the 3 year window covered by a given run.

Would you mind adding Mike Conley?

Other thoughts:
-AK/Tatum/Metta don't particularly surprise me as the top peak guys by this measure, AK/Tatum are held back by injury/longevity, not quality.
-In a CORP style analysis this is probably most favorable to Aldridge/Millsap/Metta/Iguodala/Jrue/Baron/Bosh in some order
-Divac only has half his career here
-Marion/Klay come out looking particularly poorly among guys I am considering, Horford doesn't wow either

Don't expect I'll be nominating too many more modern guys, but of the ones listed there Bosh/Metta are the most likely, with Jrue/Iguodala having a chance (and me expecting Jrue in next time we do the list even if he doesn't make this one).

AEnigma · Post #14 » by **AEnigma** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:14 pm

I could buy that adding an accolade prior would help make the top end look more “normal”, but essentially adding in a prior for recognition taints it a fair bit for me.

Post #15 » by **trex_8063** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:55 pm

Induction vote: Shawn Marion
6'7", athletic, with long arms and high-set shoulders [sort of like Kevin McHale] making his "effective height" more like 6'9" or so, and helped make him a versatile [and at times disruptive] defender, and one of the best rebounding SF's in NBA history (so quick on the second jump).
Weird looking shot that nonetheless went in an awful lot. He was good working the baseline or filling the lane, could make these little pseudo-runners, hit the three OK [made especially good use of the corner]---peaking at 38.7% on decent volume, 33.1% for his career---and a career 81% FT-shooter (peaking at 85.1% [twice])......again, despite that weird-looking shot.
Very good in transition.

EXTREMELY limited in terms of passing, and generally not a good creator, but he also played within his game very well; consequently had a VERY good turnover economy for a wing or combo forward (averaged just 1.5 topg for his career, despite producing roughly 15/9/2 per game).
Peaked at roughly All-NBA 2nd Team level [or pretty close, at least]; probably 8 seasons as at least a borderline All-Star, and some other useful years outside of that, including being a starter and key role player on a title team.

Among this crowd of candidates he's rather easily my pick.

Alternate vote: Al Horford
The best of the rest for me. Long career of usefulness in a very tough/competitive era. Has been a key player on a number of very good teams (even 1 or 2 contenders), adapted his game to fit into new systems.
I love the versatile defense, spacing and passing he provides from the 4/5 position; seems like an awesome locker-room guy, too.

If it comes to any runoff, I'm presently ranking them:
Marion > Horford > Hagan > Sharman > Walton

Nomination: Horace Grant
Alt Nomination: Dominique Wilkins

Could flop these two, pending preferences of others.

I'm surprised we're so low on Dominique Wilkins. I know he had his playoff failings, but for an excellent offensive rebounding forward who is 17th all-time in career points scored, and doing a lot of that while leading some of the best offenses in the league for a few years in the mid-late 80s; also placing 53rd all-time in MVP Award shares.......it's kinda surprising he can't even gain any discussion traction way out here at #87.

I'd also REALLY like to see guys like Chris Bosh, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Dan Issel gain some traction. Alex English, too.

AEnigma · Post #16 » by **AEnigma** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:45 pm

trex_8063 wrote:I'm surprised we're so low on Dominique Wilkins.

I have not seen anyone make much of a case for him (now or even really in prior projects imo), and forward is a deep position.

I know he had his playoff failings, but for an excellent offensive rebounding forward

I think that helps offset his middling scoring efficiency, but it is not a skill I overly value outside of that context.

who is 17th all-time in career points scored,

Kind-of brings us back to Carmelo.

and doing a lot of that while leading some of the best offenses in the league for a few years in the mid-late 80s;

Mm, sure, the 1987-89 team has one of the stronger three year relative Offensive ratings on record in the postseason… also a poor relative defensive rating… Reflects well to have been the best player on a 7 SRS team, but also not something which tended to carry over into the postseason… And then the elephant in the room is how the team clearly struggled more without Doc Rivers when he missed time in 1985, 1986, and 1990 than it did when Wilkins missed time in 1992 or was swapped with Danny Manning in 1994. Not arguing Doc was a secret superstar or anything, because I think the effect would have been similar with many other fringe all-star point guards in his place, but it does paint a picture of Wilkins as particularly dependent on playing off a higher level point guard in a sense where he is not offering something truly irreplaceable. I know Elgee has made the Amar’e analogy before, and stylistically it is not a clean one, but to the extent 2006 shows how that type of forward may not be as valuable as their production, it has always made sense to me.

placing 53rd all-time in MVP Award shares.......

Eh, presupposes that we should agree with some of those results (2nd place in 1986 is inexcusable and 5th place in 1993 is tough to justify aside from the impressiveness of his recovery), and also still leaves him behind players like Bob McAdoo… not far ahead of someone like Chris Webber (another player whose stature outpaced his effect on his teams)… Fine support for his reputation, but I am not sure anyone is unsure of the reputation Dominique Wilkins has in NBA circles.

it's kinda surprising he can't even gain any discussion traction way out here at #87.

I think you need to be the one to make his case. Because he has no real accomplishments to his name and has solid longevity but is behind several players in PIPM wins (my top preference for the box aggregates, to whatever extent I am inclined to weigh them). Okay, he is a more culturally notable figure than non-superstars like Sikma, Marion, Iguodala, Artest, Horford, Jrue, etc., but that was also true for Rasheed and Nance… and Horace Grant, so that cannot really be the argument here either, and those same cultural significance arguments can be applied to Carmelo and McAdoo and Worthy and Grant Hill.

On a personal note, I have him behind Alex English as a direct contemporary (primarily for team-building purposes), so even if I give him pretty much every benefit of doubt as a franchise centrepiece, that leaves him at least two spots away for me. And that is before getting into the question of whether he really merits separation from Carmelo, whom no one is backing. If you can convince me that Wilkins deserves to be credited as a more impactful player in his prime than both those names, then that at least would be a decent place to begin.

Post #17 » by **penbeast0** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:16 pm

I have also always had English above Nique. Equal volume, more efficient, more versatile, less playoff failures.

On the flip side, Denver with English played at a higher pace and probably less team results as Denver always seemed to be a team of good individual performances but poor fitting parts. Issel at center in an age where center defense is hugely important always seemed a weakness, not a strength. Then you get Kiki Vandeweghe for the PF spot, seriously?

Samurai · Post #18 » by **Samurai** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:22 pm

Vote for #87: Shawn Marion. Feels a bit odd to vote for someone with such an odd looking shot, but the results show that he made more than you would think when looking at him. Finished 12th in 3 pt FG's in 03 and 25th in 3 pt% and was a career 81% on FT's. Excellent rebounder and defender for a SF, finishing in the top 20 in total blocks 3 times and received consideration in All Defensive voting 9 times. Four time all star was a very good all-around player.

Alternate vote: Bill Sharman. Probably the best pure shooter of his time. Elite FT shooter (led the league 7 times), 9 top 20 finishes in both TS% and FG%. Six top 20 finishes in assists/game. Penbeast described him as a good defender for his time, similar to Klay Thompson. Assuming that is true, that makes an excellent all-around player when combining it with elite shooting.

Nomination: Billy Cunningham. Excellent peak but injuries cut his career short. But his peak was outstanding: MVP (ABA), three-time All NBA First Team, one All ABA First Team, and one All NBA Second Team. Very good rebounder with elite hops (hence his nickname of the Kangaroo Kid), very good passer and solid defender with excellent bbIQ. Career 21.2 point/game scorer. Biggest knock outside of longevity is that he wasn't a good dribbler. But he always played with heart and tenacity with a non-stop motor.

Alternate nomination: Jack Sikma. While the memory I have is that nearly unblockable jump shot that seemed to almost come from behind his head, Sikma was a very good all-around player. Seven time all star. Excellent rebounder, particularly on the defensive glass (led the league in Def Reb% once and finished in the top 5 nine times). Not a shot blocker but an otherwise very solid defender (All Defensive second team in 82). Also a very good screen setter and decent passer for a big.

eminence · Post #19 » by **eminence** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:30 pm

I am also not old enough to have seen Sharman live (along with Hagan/Walton), but I'd call him more middling on defense but stronger with the ball in his hands. More of a proto-Allen than a Klay (though obviously a lot of overlap).

AEnigma · Post #20 » by **AEnigma** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:53 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Dominique Wilkins with/without records in prime
‘86: 49-29 (.628) with, 1-3 (.250) without
‘87: 56-23 (.709) with, 1-2 (.333) without
‘88: 48-30 (.615) with, 2-2 (.500) without
‘89: 51-29 (.638) with, 1-1 (.500) without
‘90: 39-41 (.488) with, 2-0 without
‘91: 43-38 (.531) with, 0-1 without
‘92: 22-20 (.524) with, 16-24 (.400) without
‘93: 39-32 (.549) with, 4-7 (.364) without

Quoting this from prior posts. You had more than just these raw WOWY numbers, but as far as what interests me specifically, this is my focus.

[I excluded 1994 because I was not really tracking how you ran WOWY for that year. The Hawks were roughly a point worse with Manning in the lineup instead of Wilkins; the Clippers were a couple points worse with Wilkins in the lineup instead of Manning. Taking either out completely looked better, as we would expect, so maybe that was what you did? The Manning-less data would be purer WOWY while data with Manning would be more a direct point of comparison between the two. And Manning was a good player, so not an issue if the change ultimately seems marginal overall.]

Anyway, those numbers are solid, but I am not seeing what I would call separation from what you see if you do the same for Alex English. And my inclination would be for Wilkins to have a functional advantage there based on team structure, with the Nuggets typically maintaining a collection of scorers ostensibly capable of “replacing” English’s primary value.

As stated, the SRS of the Hawks is of lessened consideration to me when their results fell shy of those marks in the postseason. Single season SRS spikes as with 1987 also tend to be a red flag of mine that something else was going on (imo typically just a strong bench year), and I think that comes across with that year being by far the team’s worst postseason underperformance by the numbers (even though would probably argue losing with home-court to an injured and inferior Bucks team is worse than losing 4-1 with home-court to a Pistons team that reliably outperformed its regular season SRS).