'89 Jordan vs '18 LeBron

[1993Playoffs]

The more I look at 15-18 LeBron the better he looks compared to Peak/Prime MJ.

Big playmaking and defensive versatility advantages . Comparable scoring

The guy was even directing his team’s offensive AND defensive strategy. He was even calling the opponents plays!

Has MJ ever shown that type BBall IQ?

[Cavsfansince84]

Just want to post stats because some people are under the impression that Lebron had a better PS on offense.

PS - Per 75
1989 Jordan: 32.6 pts, 6.5 reb (1.4 o), 7.1 ast, 2.3 stl, 0.8 blk on +6.5 rTS with 3.8 tov
2018 Lebron: 31.9 pts, 8.6 reb (1.4 o), 8.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.0 blk on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 tov

It's worth noting that Jordan faced better defenses in the absolute sense (105.0 vs. 106.4 opp DRtg) and played at a slightly lower pace as well (91.1 vs. 91.6).

The Cavs as people said were starting Kevin Love at C and as such were an offensively slanted team whereas the Bulls if anything were defensively slanted. And yet Jordan's Bulls had playoff rORtg of +3.9, +8.3 and -1.6 by series for a playoff average of +2.8 while Lebron's Cavs had playoff rORtg of -2.6, +21.4, +2.5, and +0.9 by series for a playoff average of +3.1. Unless we insist to proportionally value the Cavs' obliteration of Toronto, their playoff offense was quite uninspiring and worse than the Bulls' despite having a lot more offensive talent and largely selling out on defense.

The impact stats also aren't kind to Lebron in this comparison.

PS - Per 48 Min
1989 Jordan: +3.4 ON, -20.9 OFF, +24.3 ON-OFF
2018 Lebron: -1.1 ON, -5.4 OFF, +6.5 ON-OFF

Other metrics that we don't have for Jordan like RAPM, RPM, PIPM, AuPM, and Backpicks BPM also don't look kindly on 2018 Lebron and view it as one of his weaker seasons and postseasons despite the gaudy box score.

All in all, they are close offensively. 2018 Lebron was Jordanesque on offense but the notion that he was better... I don't buy that at all. Not by the box stats (pretty even), not by the carrying job (Lebron actually had a better offensive cast), not by impact stats (Lebron worse across the board) and not by the team offensive results (likely worse team offense while selling out on defense).

Two things here:
1. you're sort of hand waving a pretty big difference in ast and reb away as nothing in the p75 comparison(more notably, I would guess both guys were playing a lot more than 75 possessions per game which makes the difference even larger).
2. The same criticisms LeBron gets for the 08/10 playoffs as being overwhelmed and not having the all around game to adapt to a great defense apply to MJ in 89. He feasted on the Cavs and Knicks then got brought back to Earth against the Pistons and especially in those last 3 games. It's also common thought that MJ wore down in 89 after carrying such a big load in the rs to the point that the announcers were even mentioning it in that ecf. How he just seemed tired and lacking energy. Those last 3 games vs Det he goes 5-15, 4-8 and 13-26 with a lot of turnovers. In terms of gamescore he had a 21.4 in that series. Way below what we think of prime/peak MJ doing. LeBron in the 2018 finals with a fractured hand still had a 28.3. So its not apples to apples here just because the box scores seem similar. If you can't admit or understand this then I think its just because you're determined to see things a certain way. LeBron in 2018 was way closer to being an unstoppable force than MJ in 89. Not even getting into the game 7's he had.

[The Master]

2. The same criticisms LeBron gets for the 08/10 playoffs as being overwhelmed and not having the all around game to adapt to a great defense apply to MJ in 89. He feasted on the Cavs and Knicks then got brought back to Earth against the Pistons and especially in those last 3 games. It's also common thought that MJ wore down in 89 after carrying such a big load in the rs to the point that the announcers were even mentioning it in that ecf. How he just seemed tired and lacking energy. Those last 3 games vs Det he goes 5-15, 4-8 and 13-26 with a lot of turnovers. In turns of gamescore he had a 21.4 in that series. Way below what we think of prime/peak MJ doing. LeBron in the 2018 finals with a fractured hand still had a 28.3. So its not apples to apples here just because the box scores seem similar. If you can't admit or understand this then I think its just because you're determined to see things a certain way. LeBron in 2018 was way closer to being an unstoppable force than MJ in 89. Not even getting into the game 7's he had.

Yeah.

And @Djoker forgot to mention that LeBron's support besides series against Raptors was completely 'dead' from the 3pt-line in the playoffs, with 2nd option (Kevin Love) being at 15ppg on 51TS% overall (13.6 PPG on 49TS% without 2nd round).

3pt shooting without LeBron (34% in the playoffs)

RS: 37%
Pacers: 31%
Raptors: 45.7%
Celtics: 29.6%
Warriors: 28.8%

Cavs on paper had more offensive talent than Bulls '89, but in reality, with Kevin Love visibly struggling (15PPG on 51TS%), and Cavs' shooters being awful for 75% of the playoffs - I don't see that much of a difference besides series against Raptors (where unsurprisingly, Cavs had 127 ORTG offense when role players were clicking). Obviously, we can investigate whether LeBron was at fault of Cavs' offensive performance, but they were +4 rORTG in the regular season, were great against Raptors when their shooting was on and we have plenty of information about level of offenses that were generated by LeBron as an anchor at that time.

Not saying this is an argument in this discussion per se, but let's be less biased here.

[Djoker]

Just want to post stats because some people are under the impression that Lebron had a better PS on offense.

PS - Per 75
1989 Jordan: 32.6 pts, 6.5 reb (1.4 o), 7.1 ast, 2.3 stl, 0.8 blk on +6.5 rTS with 3.8 tov
2018 Lebron: 31.9 pts, 8.6 reb (1.4 o), 8.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.0 blk on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 tov

It's worth noting that Jordan faced better defenses in the absolute sense (105.0 vs. 106.4 opp DRtg) and played at a slightly lower pace as well (91.1 vs. 91.6).

The Cavs as people said were starting Kevin Love at C and as such were an offensively slanted team whereas the Bulls if anything were defensively slanted. And yet Jordan's Bulls had playoff rORtg of +3.9, +8.3 and -1.6 by series for a playoff average of +2.8 while Lebron's Cavs had playoff rORtg of -2.6, +21.4, +2.5, and +0.9 by series for a playoff average of +3.1. Unless we insist to proportionally value the Cavs' obliteration of Toronto, their playoff offense was quite uninspiring and worse than the Bulls' despite having a lot more offensive talent and largely selling out on defense.

The impact stats also aren't kind to Lebron in this comparison.

PS - Per 48 Min
1989 Jordan: +3.4 ON, -20.9 OFF, +24.3 ON-OFF
2018 Lebron: -1.1 ON, -5.4 OFF, +6.5 ON-OFF

Other metrics that we don't have for Jordan like RAPM, RPM, PIPM, AuPM, and Backpicks BPM also don't look kindly on 2018 Lebron and view it as one of his weaker seasons and postseasons despite the gaudy box score.

All in all, they are close offensively. 2018 Lebron was Jordanesque on offense but the notion that he was better... I don't buy that at all. Not by the box stats (pretty even), not by the carrying job (Lebron actually had a better offensive cast), not by impact stats (Lebron worse across the board) and not by the team offensive results (likely worse team offense while selling out on defense).

Two things here:
1. you're sort of hand waving a pretty big difference in ast and reb away as nothing in the p75 comparison(more notably, I would guess both guys were playing a lot more than 75 possessions per game which makes the difference even larger).
2. The same criticisms LeBron gets for the 08/10 playoffs as being overwhelmed and not having the all around game to adapt to a great defense apply to MJ in 89. He feasted on the Cavs and Knicks then got brought back to Earth against the Pistons and especially in those last 3 games. It's also common thought that MJ wore down in 89 after carrying such a big load in the rs to the point that the announcers were even mentioning it in that ecf. How he just seemed tired and lacking energy. Those last 3 games vs Det he goes 5-15, 4-8 and 13-26 with a lot of turnovers. In turns of gamescore he had a 21.4 in that series. Way below what we think of prime/peak MJ doing. LeBron in the 2018 finals with a fractured hand still had a 28.3. So its not apples to apples here just because the box scores seem similar. If you can't admit or understand this then I think its just because you're determined to see things a certain way. LeBron in 2018 was way closer to being an unstoppable force than MJ in 89. Not even getting into the game 7's he had.

1. They are dead even in offensive rebounds and the discussion here is offense. As for assists, it's an edge for Lebron but MJ also has a small edge in scoring, a bit fewer turnovers and faced better defenses. That's why I said box score is about even.

2. Right but when we compare the 1989 ECF and the 2018 Finals, we have to acknowledge that the Pistons were a better defensive team than the Warriors (104.7 DRtg vs. 107.6 DRtg) and that the game was played at a much lower pace in 1989 ECF (87.7 vs. 90.7) so fewer transition opportunities. The Cavs got absolutely hammered by the Warriors when Lebron was on the court while the Bulls were much very competitive with the Pistons with Jordan on the court. The impact data also favours Jordan by a large margin with his team doing better ON court and worse OFF court in those respective series.

Per 48 Minutes
1989 ECF: Jordan -3.0 ON, -14.9 OFF, +11.9 ON-OFF
2018 Fin: Lebron -16.1 ON, 0.0 OFF, -16.1 ON-OFF

One thing that also comes back to the assist point you made is that 2018 Lebron had a better offensive supporting cast than 1989 Jordan did which makes it easier to get assists. And he still didn't lead a better offense in those playoffs.

So to summarize the offensive comparison in the playoffs:

Box Stats: wash
Impact Stats: Jordan by a lot
Offensive Supporting Cast: Jordan by some (worse cast)
Team Offense: wash

Overall: Jordan by a bit

[capfan33]

Just want to post stats because some people are under the impression that Lebron had a better PS on offense.

PS - Per 75
1989 Jordan: 32.6 pts, 6.5 reb (1.4 o), 7.1 ast, 2.3 stl, 0.8 blk on +6.5 rTS with 3.8 tov
2018 Lebron: 31.9 pts, 8.6 reb (1.4 o), 8.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.0 blk on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 tov

It's worth noting that Jordan faced better defenses in the absolute sense (105.0 vs. 106.4 opp DRtg) and played at a slightly lower pace as well (91.1 vs. 91.6).

The Cavs as people said were starting Kevin Love at C and as such were an offensively slanted team whereas the Bulls if anything were defensively slanted. And yet Jordan's Bulls had playoff rORtg of +3.9, +8.3 and -1.6 by series for a playoff average of +2.8 while Lebron's Cavs had playoff rORtg of -2.6, +21.4, +2.5, and +0.9 by series for a playoff average of +3.1. Unless we insist to proportionally value the Cavs' obliteration of Toronto, their playoff offense was quite uninspiring and worse than the Bulls' despite having a lot more offensive talent and largely selling out on defense.

The impact stats also aren't kind to Lebron in this comparison.

PS - Per 48 Min
1989 Jordan: +3.4 ON, -20.9 OFF, +24.3 ON-OFF
2018 Lebron: -1.1 ON, -5.4 OFF, +6.5 ON-OFF

Other metrics that we don't have for Jordan like RAPM, RPM, PIPM, AuPM, and Backpicks BPM also don't look kindly on 2018 Lebron and view it as one of his weaker seasons and postseasons despite the gaudy box score.

All in all, they are close offensively. 2018 Lebron was Jordanesque on offense but the notion that he was better... I don't buy that at all. Not by the box stats (pretty even), not by the carrying job (Lebron actually had a better offensive cast), not by impact stats (Lebron worse across the board) and not by the team offensive results (likely worse team offense while selling out on defense).

Two things here:
1. you're sort of hand waving a pretty big difference in ast and reb away as nothing in the p75 comparison(more notably, I would guess both guys were playing a lot more than 75 possessions per game which makes the difference even larger).
2. The same criticisms LeBron gets for the 08/10 playoffs as being overwhelmed and not having the all around game to adapt to a great defense apply to MJ in 89. He feasted on the Cavs and Knicks then got brought back to Earth against the Pistons and especially in those last 3 games. It's also common thought that MJ wore down in 89 after carrying such a big load in the rs to the point that the announcers were even mentioning it in that ecf. How he just seemed tired and lacking energy. Those last 3 games vs Det he goes 5-15, 4-8 and 13-26 with a lot of turnovers. In turns of gamescore he had a 21.4 in that series. Way below what we think of prime/peak MJ doing. LeBron in the 2018 finals with a fractured hand still had a 28.3. So its not apples to apples here just because the box scores seem similar. If you can't admit or understand this then I think its just because you're determined to see things a certain way. LeBron in 2018 was way closer to being an unstoppable force than MJ in 89. Not even getting into the game 7's he had.

This seems to get overlooked sometimes, MJ was pretty mortal against the Pistons in 89. And it wasn't even just the last 3 games, he was pretty underwhelming the entire series outside Game 3. He was at 41.8% shooting on 26.4 PPG outside game 3, and his impact is more predicated on scoring than Lebron's impact is.

Of course, he gets credit for popping off, but the point still stands that game 3 does a pretty good job of masking how underwhelming he was the other 5 games.

[Superjohnstarks]

Just want to post stats because some people are under the impression that Lebron had a better PS on offense.

PS - Per 75
1989 Jordan: 32.6 pts, 6.5 reb (1.4 o), 7.1 ast, 2.3 stl, 0.8 blk on +6.5 rTS with 3.8 tov
2018 Lebron: 31.9 pts, 8.6 reb (1.4 o), 8.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.0 blk on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 tov

It's worth noting that Jordan faced better defenses in the absolute sense (105.0 vs. 106.4 opp DRtg) and played at a slightly lower pace as well (91.1 vs. 91.6).

Okay? I bring up Lebron outcoaching toronto and you retort with the same BBR line. Lebron touches the ball more, cooks more defenders, and runs the damn team. Thats why Lebron sweeps and Jordan needs the buzzer beater.

The Cavs as people said were starting Kevin Love at C and as such were an offensively slanted team whereas the Bulls if anything were defensively slanted. And yet Jordan's Bulls had playoff rORtg of +3.9, +8.3 and -1.6 by series for a playoff average of +2.8 while Lebron's Cavs had playoff rORtg of -2.6, +21.4, +2.5, and +0.9 by series for a playoff average of +3.1. Unless we insist to proportionally value the Cavs' obliteration of Toronto, their playoff offense was quite uninspiring and worse than the Bulls' despite having a lot more offensive talent and largely selling out on defense.

As opposed to MJ stunting on an even more fake cavs team that was way less healthy? Except he didn't even stunt on them. Never stunted on anything without all the avengers.

The impact stats also aren't kind to Lebron in this comparison.

PS - Per 48 Min
1989 Jordan: +3.4 ON, -20.9 OFF, +24.3 ON-OFF
2018 Lebron: -1.1 ON, -5.4 OFF, +6.5 ON-OFF```Other metrics that we don't have for Jordan like RAPM, RPM, PIPM, AuPM, and Backpicks BPM also don't look kindly on 2018 Lebron and view it as one of his weaker seasons and postseasons despite the gaudy box score.

All the stats based off the near non-existent sample spread in cute <10 min increments every game of the year. Funny how none of this helped the cavs win 30 next season when he left.

I’m not sure what your point is when saying the Bulls defense was average. It’s true the 1989 Bulls defense was roughly average in the regular season (note: they were a good bit above average in the playoffs). But the 2018 Cavs defense was ranked 2nd worst in the league! And it was actually an above-average defense in the minutes LeBron was off the floor!

And then they got way worse on d when they had to play without him for more than a few min. But yeah, weak defender!!!!

By all accounts, Jordan was a very good defensive player that year, and it’s worth noting that using the Bulls overall data in those years is not a great way to assess what was happening with Jordan on the court because the Bulls in that era were absolutely awful with him off the court

Yet them absolutely awful teams got way better when it wasnt just a tiny few minutes he was missing. Almost like lineups affect this ****.

And that’s not even getting into the fact that the 1989 Cavs were very likely the superior team to the 2018 Raptors

Sorry but the Raps actually won playoff series and their players werent injured. Cavs weren't better and you're not fooling anybody.

[The Master]

So to summarize the offensive comparison in the playoffs:

Box Stats: wash
Impact Stats: Jordan by a lot
Offensive Supporting Cast: Jordan by some (worse cast)
Team Offense: wash

Overall: Jordan by a bit

One of the problems, IMHO, that from time to time several users here have (sorry for patronizing tone, I'm speaking generally from an outsider perspective) is to make these 'decontextualized' analysis, ignoring the prior factual knowledge that we possess - I think this is something that @VanWest82 has already mentioned in the other thread recently (about LeBron '09, I believe, with which I generally agree). I believe sometimes we don't have to go THAT deep.

In this case:

We have plenty of data about offensive level of LeBron in the 16-17 playoffs.

We also know that from boxscore perspective - he was even better in the '18 playoffs than in 16-17 playoffs (+7 OBPM vs +10 OBPM), against decent defenses (all above league average, with Celtics and Raptors being in top5, and Warriors obviously underrated by RS metrics).

We also have quite vivid memories of how dominant in terms of floor raising LeBron was in this postseason based on eye-test (it happened 6 years ago, come on).

Also, we have selective information about level of offense that Cavs '18 had when role players were hitting their shots that year (+4.3 rORTG in RS, dominant performance against Raptors in PS), despite not having a dominant offensive roster.

We also know that Cavs' 18 were hitting -6% from wide open 3s than in regular season, clearly slumping even in 'objective' criteria such as open looks.

Aaaaand we have couple of series with LeBron playing great offensively and yet Cavs being subpar at that end of the floor.

Now, we can analyze this '18s postseason run in vacuum (and take for granted net and on/off numbers and Cavs' offensive performance, thinking that perhaps LeBron wasn't that impactful anymore) - but we can also look on this from more 'general' perspective.

Was LeBron '18, with even better individual numbers, actually dragging his team to the finals he had no business to be in, doing his usual stuff for whatever season it was for him, hitting multiple buzzer beaters in the playoffs, with several all-time great elimination game performances - significantly worse as an offensive player than in the '16-17 playoffs, when he was able to generate all-time great playoff offenses? I find it very unlikely, especially seeing Cavs '18 generating 127 ORTG against top5 RS defense once the other guys got hot offensively.

And, personally, I find it very difficult to take pre-Jackson MJ over prime-prime LeBron on offense, but I'm not saying it necessarily as an argument in this specific discussion - as it is very vague for me to compare young Jordan to old LeBron (choose what you want, lol) - but sometimes reality isn't that complicated, I believe, in broader scheme.

[Djoker]

So to summarize the offensive comparison in the playoffs:

Box Stats: wash
Impact Stats: Jordan by a lot
Offensive Supporting Cast: Jordan by some (worse cast)
Team Offense: wash

Overall: Jordan by a bit

One of the problems, IMHO, that from time to time several users here have (sorry for patronizing tone, I'm speaking generally from an outsider perspective) is to make these 'decontextualized' analysis, ignoring the prior factual knowledge that we possess - I think this is something that @VanWest82 has already mentioned in the other thread recently (about LeBron '09, I believe, with which I generally agree). I believe sometimes we don't have to go THAT deep.

In this case:

We have plenty of data about offensive level of LeBron in the 16-17 playoffs.

We also know that from boxscore perspective - he was even better in the '18 playoffs than in 16-17 playoffs (+7 OBPM vs +10 OBPM), against decent defenses (all above league average, with Celtics and Raptors being in top5, and Warriors obviously underrated by RS metrics).

We also have quite vivid memories of how dominant in terms of floor raising LeBron was in this postseason based on eye-test (it happened 6 years ago, come on).

Also, we have selective information about level of offense that Cavs '18 had when role players were hitting their shots that year (+4.3 rORTG in RS, dominant performance against Raptors in PS), despite not having a dominant offensive roster.

We also know that Cavs' 18 were hitting -6% from wide open 3s than in regular season, clearly slumping even in 'objective' criteria such as open looks.

Aaaaand we have couple of series with LeBron playing great offensively and yet Cavs being subpar at that end of the floor.

Now, we can analyze this '18s postseason run in vacuum (and take for granted net and on/off numbers and Cavs' offensive performance, thinking that perhaps LeBron wasn't that impactful anymore) - but we can also look on this from more 'general' perspective.

Was LeBron '18, with even better individual numbers, actually dragging his team to the finals he had no business to be in, doing his usual stuff for whatever season it was for him, hitting multiple buzzer beaters in the playoffs, with several all-time great elimination game performances - significantly worse as an offensive player than in the '16-17 playoffs, when he was able to generate all-time great playoff offenses? I find it very unlikely, especially seeing Cavs '18 generating 127 ORTG against top5 RS defense once the other guys got hot offensively.

And, personally, I find it very difficult to take pre-Jackson MJ over prime-prime LeBron on offense, but I'm not saying it necessarily as an argument in this specific discussion - as it is very vague for me to compare young Jordan to old LeBron (choose what you want, lol) - but sometimes reality isn't that complicated, I believe, in broader scheme.

This is a good post. One postseason is a fairly small sample so makes sense to look at surrounding years.

Issue is that while Lebron's impact numbers improve when we consider 2016 and 2017, his box score numbers decline. His offensive supporting casts in 2016 and 2017 were also stronger than Jordan's in the 80's by an absurd margin as opposed to just a solid margin in 2018. So while including those years helps Lebron in impact stats and team offense, it hurts him in terms of box score and supporting cast. Such that Jordan probably still gets the overall edge because 1989 Jordan (as well as surrounding years) is very strong in terms of both box and impact and took those casts about as far as one humanely could.

And it's funny you mention 3pt shooting because 2016 and 2017 Cavs shot the freaking lights out from 3pt range. Like they might be the best 3pt shooting team in playoff history. In 2018 they had a cold streak but of a lesser magnitude than their insane hot streaks the previous two years.

Playoff 3pt Shooting - Open and Wide Open Threes/Catch and Shoot Threes
2016 Cavaliers: 43.8%/44.3%
2017 Cavaliers: 42.9%/45.0%
2018 Cavaliers: 35.7%/35.7%

[KembaWalker]

89 Jordan over any year LeBron

[Cavsfansince84]

1. They are dead even in offensive rebounds and the discussion here is offense. As for assists, it's an edge for Lebron but MJ also has a small edge in scoring, a bit fewer turnovers and faced better defenses. That's why I said box score is about even.

2. Right but when we compare the 1989 ECF and the 2018 Finals, we have to acknowledge that the Pistons were a better defensive team than the Warriors (104.7 DRtg vs. 107.6 DRtg) and that the game was played at a much lower pace in 1989 ECF (87.7 vs. 90.7) so fewer transition opportunities. The Cavs got absolutely hammered by the Warriors when Lebron was on the court while the Bulls were much very competitive with the Pistons with Jordan on the court. The impact data also favours Jordan by a large margin with his team doing better ON court and worse OFF court in those respective series.

Per 48 Minutes
1989 ECF: Jordan -3.0 ON, -14.9 OFF, +11.9 ON-OFF
2018 Fin: Lebron -16.1 ON, 0.0 OFF, -16.1 ON-OFF

One thing that also comes back to the assist point you made is that 2018 Lebron had a better offensive supporting cast than 1989 Jordan did which makes it easier to get assists. And he still didn't lead a better offense in those playoffs.

So to summarize the offensive comparison in the playoffs:

Box Stats: wash
Impact Stats: Jordan by a lot
Offensive Supporting Cast: Jordan by some (worse cast)
Team Offense: wash

Overall: Jordan by a bit

You say too many things assuming you are right to really bother replying to what you say. It's just not worth my time. It doesn't even matter what I'd say anyhow because in your mind its already a done thing because 89 MJ has to be better than 2018 LeBron no matter what.

[DraymondGold]

So to summarize the offensive comparison in the playoffs:

Box Stats: wash
Impact Stats: Jordan by a lot
Offensive Supporting Cast: Jordan by some (worse cast)
Team Offense: wash

Overall: Jordan by a bit

One of the problems, IMHO, that from time to time several users here have (sorry for patronizing tone, I'm speaking generally from an outsider perspective) is to make these 'decontextualized' analysis, ignoring the prior factual knowledge that we possess - I think this is something that @VanWest82 has already mentioned in the other thread recently (about LeBron '09, I believe, with which I generally agree). I believe sometimes we don't have to go THAT deep.

In this case:

We have plenty of data about offensive level of LeBron in the 16-17 playoffs.

We also know that from boxscore perspective - he was even better in the '18 playoffs than in 16-17 playoffs (+7 OBPM vs +10 OBPM), against decent defenses (all above league average, with Celtics and Raptors being in top5, and Warriors obviously underrated by RS metrics).

We also have quite vivid memories of how dominant in terms of floor raising LeBron was in this postseason based on eye-test (it happened 6 years ago, come on).

Also, we have selective information about level of offense that Cavs '18 had when role players were hitting their shots that year (+4.3 rORTG in RS, dominant performance against Raptors in PS), despite not having a dominant offensive roster.

We also know that Cavs' 18 were hitting -6% from wide open 3s than in regular season, clearly slumping even in 'objective' criteria such as open looks.

Aaaaand we have couple of series with LeBron playing great offensively and yet Cavs being subpar at that end of the floor.

Now, we can analyze this '18s postseason run in vacuum (and take for granted net and on/off numbers and Cavs' offensive performance, thinking that perhaps LeBron wasn't that impactful anymore) - but we can also look on this from more 'general' perspective.

Was LeBron '18, with even better individual numbers, actually dragging his team to the finals he had no business to be in, doing his usual stuff for whatever season it was for him, hitting multiple buzzer beaters in the playoffs, with several all-time great elimination game performances - significantly worse as an offensive player than in the '16-17 playoffs, when he was able to generate all-time great playoff offenses? I find it very unlikely, especially seeing Cavs '18 generating 127 ORTG against top5 RS defense once the other guys got hot offensively.

And, personally, I find it very difficult to take pre-Jackson MJ over prime-prime LeBron on offense, but I'm not saying it necessarily as an argument in this specific discussion - as it is very vague for me to compare young Jordan to old LeBron (choose what you want, lol) - but sometimes reality isn't that complicated, I believe, in broader scheme.

This is a good post. One postseason is a fairly small sample so makes sense to look at surrounding years.

Issue is that while Lebron's impact numbers improve when we consider 2016 and 2017, his box score numbers decline. His offensive supporting casts in 2016 and 2017 were also stronger than Jordan's in the 80's by an absurd margin as opposed to just a solid margin in 2018. So while including those years helps Lebron in impact stats and team offense, it hurts him in terms of box score and supporting cast. Such that Jordan probably still gets the overall edge because 1989 Jordan (as well as surrounding years) is very strong in terms of both box and impact and took those casts about as far as one humanely could.

And it's funny you mention 3pt shooting because 2016 and 2017 Cavs shot the freaking lights out from 3pt range. Like they might be the best 3pt shooting team in playoff history. In 2018 they had a cold streak but of a lesser magnitude than their insane hot streaks the previous two years.

Playoff 3pt Shooting - Open and Wide Open Threes/Catch and Shoot Threes
2016 Cavaliers: 43.8%/44.3%
2017 Cavaliers: 42.9%/45.0%
2018 Cavaliers: 35.7%/35.7%

Hey Djoker -- I definitely don't want to wade into another LeBron Jordan debate right now (these conversations can get pretty toxic unfortunately... though I do absolutely favor 89 > 18. The regular season and the defensive dropoff for 18 is just too much to make up for the smaller sample offensive stuff). Still, I thought your 3 point shooting data was interesting!

I've checked nba.com to get the same data for the regular season.
Regular Season 3 Point Shooting - Open and Wide Open Threes / Catch and Shoot Threes
2016 Cavaliers: 38.2 / 39.0%
2017 Cavaliers: 39.9 / 39.9%
2018 Cavaliers: 38.5 / 38.9%

Change from Regular season to playoff:
2016 Cavaliers: +5.6% / +5.3%
2017 Cavaliers: +3.0% / +5.1%
2018 Cavaliers: -2.8% / -3.2%

So this definitely fits your hypothesis that they improve in shooting from the regular season to the playoffs in 2016/2017 and get worse in 2018, but that they improve by a larger margin in the first two years than they get worse in 2018.

How much of this is signal vs noise? Not sure. I'd bet some of it is noise -- Thinking Basketball did a study of LeBron's playoff teams, and found the same jump in playoff 3 point shooting in these peak offense Cleveland years, but found no clear signal in any other years, so he came to the conclusion a sizeable portion of it is noise (though hard to say just how much).

One qualifier here -- 2018 had a ton of roster turnover during the regular season, and these regular season stats just take a team average over the season. A smarter way to do this might be to filter games for more of the newer roster (but not make the sample of RS games so small that noise takes over), or to look at each of the player's shooting over the whole year, or something like that. So perhaps slightly more uncertainty in the 2018 RS data.

[lessthanjake]

I’m not sure what your point is when saying the Bulls defense was average. It’s true the 1989 Bulls defense was roughly average in the regular season (note: they were a good bit above average in the playoffs). But the 2018 Cavs defense was ranked 2nd worst in the league! And it was actually an above-average defense in the minutes LeBron was off the floor!

And then they got way worse on d when they had to play without him for more than a few min. But yeah, weak defender!!!!

What are you referring to? Are you comparing the 2018 Cavs defense to the 2019 Cavs defense? The 2019 Cavs were intentionally tanking. Moreover, if we look at the 8 other players that had the most minutes on the 2018 Cavaliers, those 8 players played a grand total of just 92 games for the 2019 Cavaliers. Acting like the 2019 Cavs defense tells us virtually anything about the 2018 Cavs defense is just obviously silly. It’s just a completely different team. You might as well be comparing the 2018 Cavs defense to a completely different franchise’s 2019 defense—it wouldn’t be a whole lot less relevant. And, when we actually look at 2018, the fact that there was no player that the Cavs defense did better without than LeBron is pretty telling about the causation.

By all accounts, Jordan was a very good defensive player that year, and it’s worth noting that using the Bulls overall data in those years is not a great way to assess what was happening with Jordan on the court because the Bulls in that era were absolutely awful with him off the court

Yet them absolutely awful teams got way better when it wasnt just a tiny few minutes he was missing. Almost like lineups affect this ****.

When did the 1989 Bulls play without Jordan? Surely you’re not referring to the 1994 Bulls, which is quite obviously a very different team at the peak of their cycle? They weren’t absolutely awful without Jordan, but that obviously has essentially zero bearing on the 1989 Bulls. Or maybe you’re talking about the 1986 Bulls, which played the vast majority of the season without Jordan and is at least from the years I was referring to? Of course, that team played at a very bad 27-win pace without Jordan (while going 7-4 in the games Jordan actually played at least 20 minutes), so it wouldn’t make much of any sense for you to be making an argument about that team either. Maybe you’re talking about the one game Jordan missed in 1989? But the Bulls lost that game (and, in any event, it was one game), so you surely aren’t talking about that either. Perhaps you’re referring to the games they played without Jordan overall in those pre-title years? This is mostly the same as looking at the 1986 Bulls (since almost all the missed games were from that season), but the Bulls won at a 26-win pace in those games. You don’t seem to have any remotely valid point here. The Bulls in that era were bad when Jordan went onto the bench in games he played and they were bad when he didn’t play in games. They were just bad.

In any event, this is really beside the point, because what I was saying is that there’s an obvious flaw with using overall team data to assess how good a player made his team (which you appeared to be doing when saying the 1989 Bulls had an average defense) when we have very good reason to believe the team was awful in the minutes he didn’t play. This is because that means the data when the player in question was actually playing (which is what would be relevant to the assessment you were trying to make) is almost certainly a lot better than the overall team data. You’re basically trying to use the awfulness of Jordan’s team in his “off” minutes against him. That was my point, and nothing above addresses that.

And that’s not even getting into the fact that the 1989 Cavs were very likely the superior team to the 2018 Raptors

Sorry but the Raps actually won playoff series and their players werent injured. Cavs weren't better and you're not fooling anybody.

Suggesting the Raptors must’ve been better because they “actually won playoff series” is a bit odd, given that the reason the Cavaliers didn’t win a playoff series is that they faced Jordan in the first round. If the 2018 Raptors had faced LeBron in the first round, they wouldn’t have won a playoff series either. (Nor does the Raptors winning a close series against the 2018 Wizards inspire much confidence anyways—the Raptors had a +2.53 playoff SRS from that series they won).

[OhayoKD]

I’m not sure what your point is when saying the Bulls defense was average. It’s true the 1989 Bulls defense was roughly average in the regular season (note: they were a good bit above average in the playoffs). But the 2018 Cavs defense was ranked 2nd worst in the league! And it was actually an above-average defense in the minutes LeBron was off the floor!

And then they got way worse on d when they had to play without him for more than a few min. But yeah, weak defender!!!!

What are you referring to? Are you comparing the 2018 Cavs defense to the 2019 Cavs defense? The 2019 Cavs were intentionally tanking.

They were not tanking to start the season(20ish win pace till they fired), and even if you look at only kevin love minutes that year they top out at 25-wins.

(PS: Players generally do not "tank" as they have financial interest to look good. Tanking occurs by way of roster moves and coaching decisions.)

There's also the "cavs were secretly .500" claim clashing with what we saw when the cavs had kyrie and love for 3 years when they had to survive without him for more than a few minutes...but who am I to stop you from dying on desperate hills.

And that’s not even getting into the fact that the 1989 Cavs were very likely the superior team to the 2018 Raptors

Sorry but the Raps actually won playoff series and their players werent injured. Cavs weren't better and you're not fooling anybody.

Suggesting the Raptors must’ve been better because they “actually won playoff series” is a bit odd, given that the reason the Cavaliers didn’t win a playoff series is that they faced Jordan in the first round..

Was Jordan also the reason they lost to a Barkley-less Sixers?

And, personally, I find it very difficult to take pre-Jackson MJ over prime-prime LeBron on offense, but I'm not saying it necessarily as an argument in this specific discussion - as it is very vague for me to compare young Jordan to old LeBron (choose what you want, lol) - but sometimes reality isn't that complicated, I believe, in broader scheme.

89 and 90/91 MJ being different players because the latter ones looked better being left in single coverage is a-grade jordan-era revionism

[Colbinii]

I prefer the 3-level scoring of LeBeon James and his ability to be an elite playmaker/passer compared to Jordan's incredible motor and slashing game.

I think LeBron simply provided higher-end title chances compared to Jordan.

[Superjohnstarks]

[quote][/quote]lessthanjake The net rating of kevin love,geroge Hill or Kyle korver where still pitiful when played next,also by on/off Kyle korver is a -7 defender right john paxon better defender than jordan too.

We don't have data for those teams except 85 regular season and 88 regular season so mute comparison. The 86 bulls actually had a better relative ortg without jordan in 86,in 89 when jordan played pg to end the season the Bulls defense fell of a cliff posting a 109drtg absolute putrid but goat perimeter defender tho

[SeattleJazzFan]

Who do you think was operating at the higher level?

MJ, but crazy that this is even close. 89 MJ was absolute peak MJ. 2018 Lebron was a demon in the playoffs, but it probably isn't a top 5 regular season. he was in his 15th year by that point and had been to 7 straight finals. there was a lot of wear and tear on that body.

[LukaTheGOAT]

The past is the past but it is fascinating to see the differences in opinion over time.

In this old thread 89 Jordan received a healthy amount of more votes than 2012 Lebron per the comments.

viewtopic.php?t=1761671

2012 Lebron is often considered greater than 2018 Lebron, and arguably his peak.

So to see that 2018 Lebron ia doing so well in this thread is a stark contrast. If 2018 Lebron does this well, I can only imagine that's several Lebron seasons have been upgraded in the view of the board.

[Tim Lehrbach]

The past is the past but it is fascinating to see the differences in opinion over time.

In this old thread 89 Jordan received a healthy amount of more votes than 2012 Lebron per the comments.

viewtopic.php?t=1761671

2012 Lebron is often considered greater than 2018 Lebron, and arguably his peak.

So to see that 2018 Lebron ia doing so well in this thread is a stark contrast. If 2018 Lebron does this well, I can only imagine that's several Lebron seasons have been upgraded in the view of the board.

Looking over the respondents in the 2018 thread, I doubt the pro-Jordan side would have "upgraded" any LeBron seasons over peak/near-peak Jordan. I don't take this to be evidence of changing perspectives over time, just different samples.

EDIT: But, I think it is still an interesting thread comparison. There is at least a difference of opinion between OPs' assessments of LeBron vs. Jordan, six years ago and today. Good find.

[Tim Lehrbach]

The fact that this is tough for me may be testament to my LeBron bias. I'm gonna ramble a bit anyhow because I do find the comparison a fascinating one.

I generally place '89-'91 MJ above anybody when pressed to name a "top peak," but it always goes back to the question of what we're looking for. These are wildly different circumstances and, looking at only the years in question, very different players.

I am not an "only playoffs matter" guy, but veteran players are. It's really hard for me to look at Cavs II playoff LeBron and ask anything more of a basketball player in a moment (well, don't punch that wall, I guess...), or game, or series, or playoff run, or tenure with a team. To ask significantly more would be getting into silly territory of building a near-perfect or perfect basketball player. Sure, it only yielded one ring, but (1) so did the '88-'91 Bulls, and (2) he faced the same dynasty every damn year, and of the three losses, one was with a decimated roster and two were against the unreasonably loaded Durant squads. I shouldn't give him credit for '16-'17's performances in '18, I suppose, but in the LeBron '09 vs. '13 thread, we are constantly being reminded that "context matters" and surrounding year performances are instructive as to the makeup of the player under study. Here, LeBron clearly "activates playoff mode" when the circumstances called for it. He is not a dramatically lesser player in 2018 than he was in '16-'17, IMO.

Am I straying too far from cold analysis and committing the Jordanaires' sin of exalting an image of a player over objective evidence? It's possible. I don't bring statistical analysis to my contributions, typically, because others do it much better than I do. Anyway, I hold young prime MJ in extremely high "narrative" esteem too. Jordan, to the eye test, did "less" than LeBron on the court, but was so devastatingly effective and, starting with the period in question, so disciplined and economical in his movements and optimized within the team's philosophy and system, that it's equally implausible (as asking more of Cavs II LeBron) to imagine plugging anybody else in there and yielding the jaw-dropping individual performances he made routine.

Nor can the eventual team dominance be ignored when considering what Jordan at his best means. This is not a Stockton goes from Layden to Sloan situation here, where stat reduction means a scaled-back contribution in favor of other players for the betterment of the team. Rather, Jordan perfected choosing his spots (yes, benefiting from an improved supporting cast, but still having to execute with unparalleled precision and bearing tremendous responsibility) in a way I've never otherwise witnessed. The early-prime/near-peak Jordan should, however, not be knocked for producing at higher volumes when the team called for it, just as LeBron shouldn't be knocked for his heliocentric approach when it was called for.

I dunno, I make a lot of broad claims here, some of which may be contradicted by the data. My approach to player evaluations doesn't tend to yield definitive comparisons or rankings because I am less interested in raw production or impact stats telling me how absolutely "good" a player was than I am in capturing the most accurate story of who the player was, what he meant to his team(s) and the league, and what the evidence tells us we ought to celebrate him or criticize him for (or both, really). I also, of course, have no special access to what the correct "story" of a player really is, so my opinions are not only less supported by data than others' but also necessarily contingent on my experiences following the game. For example, I do know this much: I like LeBron much more than I do Jordan, which admittedly matters when I consider each player's best narrative. Even so, to come to a close here, how about a curve ball: because I weigh regular season results more heavily than most do, I think Jordan produced a slightly more complete and impressive season. Hence, ultimately I side with him. That shouldn't be mistaken for preferring Jordan to James on the 2018 Cavs, however.

[lessthanjake]

And then they got way worse on d when they had to play without him for more than a few min. But yeah, weak defender!!!!

What are you referring to? Are you comparing the 2018 Cavs defense to the 2019 Cavs defense? The 2019 Cavs were intentionally tanking.

They were not tanking to start the season(20ish win pace till they fired), and even if you look at only kevin love minutes that year they top out at 25-wins.

(PS: Players generally do not "tank" as they have financial interest to look good. Tanking occurs by way of roster moves and coaching decisions.)

There's also the "cavs were secretly .500" claim clashing with what we saw when the cavs had kyrie and love for 3 years when they had to survive without him for more than a few minutes...but who am I to stop you from dying on desperate hills.

This is silly. The eight players besides LeBron that had the most minutes on the 2018 Cavaliers were (in order by minutes played): JR Smith, Jeff Green, Kevin Love, Kyle Korver, Jae Crowder, Tristan Thompson, Dwyane Wade, and Jose Calderon. In the 2019 season, Kevin Love spent 6 minutes on the court at the same time as JR Smith, 0 minutes on the court with Jeff Green, 12 minutes on the court with Kyle Korver, 0 minutes on the court with Jae Crowder, 159 minutes on the court with Tristan Thompson, 0 minutes on the court with Dwyane Wade, and 0 minutes on the court with Jose Calderon. But please go on and try to tell me that, in the games Kevin Love played, the team was actually similar to the 2018 Cavs.

As for players not tanking, you’re right that players aren’t purposely trying to play badly and that it’s the organization and coaching that’s actively trying to do badly, but player motivation is certainly going to be lower on a team that they know isn’t trying to do well, and motivation matters quite a lot for player performance. But this also doesn’t really even matter here, since the team just wasn’t the same team.

And that’s not even getting into the fact that the 1989 Cavs were very likely the superior team to the 2018 Raptors

Sorry but the Raps actually won playoff series and their players werent injured. Cavs weren't better and you're not fooling anybody.

Suggesting the Raptors must’ve been better because they “actually won playoff series” is a bit odd, given that the reason the Cavaliers didn’t win a playoff series is that they faced Jordan in the first round..

Was Jordan also the reason they lost to a Barkley-less Sixers?

No, but that also absolutely never happened.

And the irony is that the series you’re trying to refer to (in which, contrary to your bogus claim, Barkley absolutely did play) was one where the Cavaliers had a significantly higher playoff SRS than that era’s Raptors ever had in any series until they got Kawhi. And that was in a different year, in which the Cavs were substantially less good than they’d been in 1989. If anything, it’s evidence in favor of my position!