What makes Joker better than Giannis?

[Peregrine01]

How big is the defensive gap nowadays really?

Bucks are ranked 20th on defense. If Giannis was still a super elite defender that would not be the case.

Nuggets are ranked 9th on defense despite people constantly saying Jokic isn't a good defender (not the case anymore btw).

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

[OhayoKD]

How big is the defensive gap nowadays really?

Bucks are ranked 20th on defense. If Giannis was still a super elite defender that would not be the case.

Nuggets are ranked 9th on defense despite people constantly saying Jokic isn't a good defender (not the case anymore btw).

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

Yes the Bucks going from an all-time regular season defense to a middling one when they added jrue shows big man defense is overrated.

Just like those middling defenses mysteriously turning into all-time playoff defenses with Giannis lineups skyrocketing defensively shows big man defense is overrated.

Just like the Bucks going form an all-time playoff defense to an average one the two runs Giannis got hurt shows big man defense is overrated.

Giannis is quite possibly the worst example to use if you want the forum to reconsider the value of big man defense

[Peregrine01]

How big is the defensive gap nowadays really?

Bucks are ranked 20th on defense. If Giannis was still a super elite defender that would not be the case.

Nuggets are ranked 9th on defense despite people constantly saying Jokic isn't a good defender (not the case anymore btw).

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

Yes the Bucks going from an all-time regular season defense to a middling one when they added jrue shows big man defense is overrated.

Just like those middling defenses mysteriously turning into all-time playoff defenses with Giannis lineups skyrocketing defensively shows big man defense is overrated.

Just like the Bucks going form an all-time playoff defense to an average one the two runs Giannis got hurt shows big man defense is overrated.

Giannis is quite possibly the worst example to use if you want the forum to reconsider the value of big man defense

Perhaps you should read. I'm saying that we should re-evaluate the value of guard defense, not the value of big man defense.

If you're talking about the 2021 Bucks, they exchanged Bledsoe and Wes Matthews (both solid defensive players) for Jrue and they were still a top-10 defense. The drop-off from Jrue to Dame is huge.

[OhayoKD]

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

Yes the Bucks going from an all-time regular season defense to a middling one when they added jrue shows big man defense is overrated.

Just like those middling defenses mysteriously turning into all-time playoff defenses with Giannis lineups skyrocketing defensively shows big man defense is overrated.

Just like the Bucks going form an all-time playoff defense to an average one the two runs Giannis got hurt shows big man defense is overrated.

Giannis is quite possibly the worst example to use if you want the forum to reconsider the value of big man defense

Perhaps you should read. I'm saying that we should re-evaluate the value of guard defense, not the value of big man defense.

Both are relevant to "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense", I read fine. The Buck's bigman has been far more important than anyone else on the team to their defensive performances and lackthereof.

If you're talking about the 2021 Bucks, they exchanged Bledsoe and Wes Matthews (both solid defensive players) for Jrue and they were still a top-10 defense.

Clever phrasing


But no, I do not think the lillard for jrue swap reflecting half of the drop-off we saw between 2020 and 2021 tells the story you're saying it tells.

I suspect, you don't really think that either, considering you went with rank instead of actual performance.

[kcktiny]

Jokic... is also a severely underrated defender. The advanced stats show this, and now the eye test too

Whose eyes?

Go to stats.nba.com and look at the defensive FGM/FGA allowed data under player defensive dashboards.

You will see that for FGAs <6' Jokic allows a high 64.2% FG% (400/623), highest/worst among starting Cs. The best Cs allow just a 48.4% FG% (Gobert 271/560). Antetokounmpo <6' allows a 54.2% FG% (193/356).

For FGAs <10' Jokic allows a 59.3% FG% (492/829), one of the highest/worst among starting Cs. Gobert 47.0% (332/706). Antetokounmpo 52.7% (227/431).

That means for this 2023-24 season Jokic is one of the worst shot defenders among Cs in the league.

What "advanced" stats are telling you Jokic is a "severely underrated defender"? If they do not take into consideration shot defense then they are clearly flawed and of no use for evaluating defense.

[lessthanjake]

Jokic... is also a severely underrated defender. The advanced stats show this, and now the eye test too

Whose eyes?

Go to stats.nba.com and look at the defensive FGM/FGA allowed data under player defensive dashboards.

You will see that for FGAs <6' Jokic allows a high 64.2% FG% (400/623), highest/worst among starting Cs. The best Cs allow just a 48.4% FG% (Gobert 271/560). Antetokounmpo <6' allows a 54.2% FG% (193/356).

For FGAs <10' Jokic allows a 59.3% FG% (492/829), one of the highest/worst among starting Cs. Gobert 47.0% (332/706). Antetokounmpo 52.7% (227/431).

That means for this 2023-24 season Jokic is one of the worst shot defenders among Cs in the league.

What "advanced" stats are telling you Jokic is a "severely underrated defender"? If they do not take into consideration shot defense then they are clearly flawed and of no use for evaluating defense.

I think that one thing missing in this analysis is the fact that Jokic contests a lot of shots. He’s consistently near the very top of the league in number of contested FG’s within 6 feet per game. He’s a very active defender. Some of the high FG% against him is reflective of the fact that he’s contesting attempts that other people just wouldn’t contest. And that’s important context. Put differently, someone who contests more shots but is less good on any individual contest may not really be much worse overall (and in fact may not be worse at all), because contesting a shot at the rim at all provides a large amount of value compared to not doing so. This doesn’t make him a great rim protector, but it is a significant mitigating factor to the FG% at the rim.

Furthermore, Jokic is great in other ways on defense. His defensive rebounding is fantastic, and that is a really big deal. He has really good hands, especially for his position, causing a lot of turnovers. And he’s a smart defender who pays attention and is active, leading to him being positioned well. These things go a long way.

[Colbinii]

Jokic... is also a severely underrated defender. The advanced stats show this, and now the eye test too

Whose eyes?

Go to stats.nba.com and look at the defensive FGM/FGA allowed data under player defensive dashboards.

You will see that for FGAs <6' Jokic allows a high 64.2% FG% (400/623), highest/worst among starting Cs. The best Cs allow just a 48.4% FG% (Gobert 271/560). Antetokounmpo <6' allows a 54.2% FG% (193/356).

For FGAs <10' Jokic allows a 59.3% FG% (492/829), one of the highest/worst among starting Cs. Gobert 47.0% (332/706). Antetokounmpo 52.7% (227/431).

That means for this 2023-24 season Jokic is one of the worst shot defenders among Cs in the league.

What "advanced" stats are telling you Jokic is a "severely underrated defender"? If they do not take into consideration shot defense then they are clearly flawed and of no use for evaluating defense.

I think that one thing missing in this analysis is the fact that Jokic contests a lot of shots. He’s consistently near the very top of the league in number of contested FG’s within 6 feet per game. He’s a very active defender. Some of the high FG% against him is reflective of the fact that he’s contesting attempts that other people just wouldn’t contest.

That's not the whole story though.

Players like Rudy Gobert completely deter a player from shooting in the first place, which is why his shot contest numbers are lower.

Those possessions result in a shot which has a significantly lower eFG% than Jokic's contested FG%.

This doesn’t make him a great rim protector, but it is a significant mitigating factor to the FG% at the rim.

Significantly less impactful than a player who is literally deterring FGA at the rim in the first place, since FGA at the rim are the highest efficiency shots.

[rk2023]

Jokic DBPM since 2022: 4.5, 4.5, 4.4

Giannis DBPM in his three best years: 4.1, 4.1, 3.5

Things that make you think

[kcktiny]

I think that one thing missing in this analysis is the fact that Jokic contests a lot of shots. He’s consistently near the very top of the league in number of contested FG’s within 6 feet per game. He’s a very active defender. Some of the high FG% against him is reflective of the fact that he’s contesting attempts that other people just wouldn’t contest.

Jokic fans will try anything to twist a clear negative into a positive with convoluted logic.

This is patently false. Jokic faces a high number of FGAs on defense simply because the opposition repeatedly go at him because he is a poor shot defender, and has been for years. This season's defensive FGM/FGA allowed data is no outlier - look at the data at stats.nba.com for Jokic for previous seasons.

Furthermore, Jokic is great in other ways on defense. His defensive rebounding is fantastic, and that is a really big deal.

Defensive rebounding is after the fact, and in no way constitutes good defense when your shot defense is poor.

Jonas Valanciunas, Jusuf Nurkic, even Kevin Love are all similar defensive rebounders to Jokic on a per minute basis this and the past few seasons. You advocating for them too being good defenders because of their defensive rebounding? Or is it just Jokic because you are a fan of his?

He has really good hands, especially for his position, causing a lot of turnovers.

"A lot" of turnovers? What evidence do you have for this? Cs like Andre Drummond and Paul Reed have much higher per minute steal rates than Jokic does, I don't hear anyone beating their drums for them to be recognized as top defenders.

And Jokic on defense does not draw many offensive fouls from the opposition.

So what turnovers are you talking about?

And he’s a smart defender who pays attention and is active, leading to him being positioned well.

Maybe if he was even smarter he would stop more shots from going in.

Players like Rudy Gobert completely deter a player from shooting in the first place, which is why his shot contest numbers are lower.

Exactly - Gobert, Porzingis, Walker Kessler, these are your best shot defenders <10' of the basket. Jokic is one of the worst among Cs, whether Jokic fans want to admit it or not.

Jokic DBPM since 2022: 4.5, 4.5, 4.4 Giannis DBPM in his three best years: 4.1, 4.1, 3.5

Which clearly tells you how useless some of these calculated metrics are.

Read how DBPM is calculated:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html

And let us know if any individual player shot defense data is used (Hint: No).

Jokic, right now, doesn't really have any weaknesses.

Defense is half the game, whether Jokic fans want to admit it or not.

And defense is a very big weakness for Jokic.

[Heej]

How big is the defensive gap nowadays really?

Bucks are ranked 20th on defense. If Giannis was still a super elite defender that would not be the case.

Nuggets are ranked 9th on defense despite people constantly saying Jokic isn't a good defender (not the case anymore btw).

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

NGL mate I've been on this train for a few years now and it makes sense because most actions in the NBA are pick and roll or off-ball screens at heart so with how homogenized the game gets as the years go on due to positionless basketball it only makes sense that POA defenders increase in value with modern offenses.

I don't think the skew is that great though when you consider how much more important and difficult defensive rebounding has become due to bigs being stretched out of the paint more and forwards getting bigger and more mobile.

[Peregrine01]

How big is the defensive gap nowadays really?

Bucks are ranked 20th on defense. If Giannis was still a super elite defender that would not be the case.

Nuggets are ranked 9th on defense despite people constantly saying Jokic isn't a good defender (not the case anymore btw).

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

NGL mate I've been on this train for a few years now and it makes sense because most actions in the NBA are pick and roll or off-ball screens at heart so with how homogenized the game gets as the years go on due to positionless basketball it only makes sense that POA defenders increase in value with modern offenses.

I don't think the skew is that great though when you consider how much more important and difficult defensive rebounding has become due to bigs being stretched out of the paint more and forwards getting bigger and more mobile.

When I observe guys like Jaden McDaniels or Jalen Suggs not even allow themselves to get screened, denying and forcing the other team deep into the clock, I can't help but feel that the effect on the offense is immense. You force a pick and roll ball-handler to work really hard just trying to get into their actions and it does something that great rim protection can't do - stalling an offense completely.

[Heej]

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

NGL mate I've been on this train for a few years now and it makes sense because most actions in the NBA are pick and roll or off-ball screens at heart so with how homogenized the game gets as the years go on due to positionless basketball it only makes sense that POA defenders increase in value with modern offenses.

I don't think the skew is that great though when you consider how much more important and difficult defensive rebounding has become due to bigs being stretched out of the paint more and forwards getting bigger and more mobile.

When I observe guys like Jaden McDaniels or Jalen Suggs not even allow themselves to get screened, denying and forcing the other team deep into the clock, I can't help but feel that the effect on the offense is immense. You force a pick and roll ball-handler to work really hard just trying to get into their actions and it does something that great rim protection can't do - stalling an offense completely.

That's very true. Screen navigation gotta be the most underrated defensive skill in basketball. If the name of the game is deterring good shots I really think you're on to something with how much defensive EV is generated by a great screen navigator because it prevents putting 2 on the ball and requiring backline rotations to execute on time.

[Jaqua92]

Wanted a debate on this, one is constantly ranked over the other, but Giannis brings the full package with defense.

Let me put it this way:

In terms of "what" Jokic is better at than Giannis, that's pretty clear isn't it? Shooting, passing, rebounding, strength, feel.
But one can acknowledge all that and still feel that any offensive advantage Jokic has over the also-an-offensive-superstar Giannis are more than made up for on the defensive end.

So if it turns out that Jokic's advantages are making him the better overall player, how can that be? What are we underrating/overrating? My assessment:

1. Feel is just an incredibly big deal in basketball, particularly when exemplified by extreme outliers - and I think Jokic is the most extreme I've ever seen. If you're not factoring this in as a massive thing, I think you're probably underrating Jokic by quite a lot.

2. Defense is half of the team's game, but that doesn't mean the most valuable offensive player is having the same amount of offensive impact as the the most valuable defensive player is having on his side of the other side of the ball. Back before the arc, the top players tended to dominate through defense, but now it's the other way around. Maybe it won't always be - maybe we're about to see Wemby change everything - but as it has been for quite a while now, you'll overrate defense-oriented players if you start from an assumption that outliers on both sides are symmetrical.

3. At this point there are once again concerns about playoff resilience with Giannis' Bucks. The championship quieted the critics before, and another will likely do it again, but it is disturbing to many - including myself - the way the Bucks are prone shocking upsets.

To be clear, I've tried to set all this up not to explain "why I know" Jokic is better than Giannis, and I want to point out that points (1) & (2) are just plain true but do not represent any kind of proof that Jokic is better than Giannis overall, while (3) is something that may not hold up, and if it doesn't, that will likely represent a shift in opinion back toward Giannis.

Feel point is important. I don't think reputation has caught up yet. But I think he's got the best court vision in the history of the NBA, and arguably the best feel for the game ever.

[eminence]

How big is the defensive gap nowadays really?

Bucks are ranked 20th on defense. If Giannis was still a super elite defender that would not be the case.

Nuggets are ranked 9th on defense despite people constantly saying Jokic isn't a good defender (not the case anymore btw).

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

I can think of one (two now) other major changes for the Bucks this season.

[Peregrine01]

How big is the defensive gap nowadays really?

Bucks are ranked 20th on defense. If Giannis was still a super elite defender that would not be the case.

Nuggets are ranked 9th on defense despite people constantly saying Jokic isn't a good defender (not the case anymore btw).

I'm quite surprised how bad the Bucks' defense has gotten. I think this whole forum should re-evaluate the "big man defense is a lot more important than guard defense" idea. We've seen the Bucks defense fall from 4th to 20th when the only major roster change is going from Jrue to Dame. Perhaps we've been underestimating just how important point-of-attack defense is.

I can think of one (two now) other major changes for the Bucks this season.

Coaching continuity is important but this roster (sans Dame) has been playing together for a long time now. If acclimating Dame into a scheme that can keep the Bucks from being a below average offense is this difficult does it say something about the coach or the player? Perhaps both but I’m leaning toward the player.

[Ambrose]

Much better offensively, more consistent, more durable, more playoff resilient, and the defensive gap is exaggerated. Giannis doesn't have much of a case at all.

[Ambrose]

Whose eyes?

Go to stats.nba.com and look at the defensive FGM/FGA allowed data under player defensive dashboards.

You will see that for FGAs <6' Jokic allows a high 64.2% FG% (400/623), highest/worst among starting Cs. The best Cs allow just a 48.4% FG% (Gobert 271/560). Antetokounmpo <6' allows a 54.2% FG% (193/356).

For FGAs <10' Jokic allows a 59.3% FG% (492/829), one of the highest/worst among starting Cs. Gobert 47.0% (332/706). Antetokounmpo 52.7% (227/431).

That means for this 2023-24 season Jokic is one of the worst shot defenders among Cs in the league.

What "advanced" stats are telling you Jokic is a "severely underrated defender"? If they do not take into consideration shot defense then they are clearly flawed and of no use for evaluating defense.

I think that one thing missing in this analysis is the fact that Jokic contests a lot of shots. He’s consistently near the very top of the league in number of contested FG’s within 6 feet per game. He’s a very active defender. Some of the high FG% against him is reflective of the fact that he’s contesting attempts that other people just wouldn’t contest.

That's not the whole story though.

Players like Rudy Gobert completely deter a player from shooting in the first place, which is why his shot contest numbers are lower.

Those possessions result in a shot which has a significantly lower eFG% than Jokic's contested FG%.

This doesn’t make him a great rim protector, but it is a significant mitigating factor to the FG% at the rim.

Significantly less impactful than a player who is literally deterring FGA at the rim in the first place, since FGA at the rim are the highest efficiency shots.

I don't think anyone sees Jokic comparable defensively to Gobert, especially as a rim protector or deterrent.

[lessthanjake]

Whose eyes?

Go to stats.nba.com and look at the defensive FGM/FGA allowed data under player defensive dashboards.

You will see that for FGAs <6' Jokic allows a high 64.2% FG% (400/623), highest/worst among starting Cs. The best Cs allow just a 48.4% FG% (Gobert 271/560). Antetokounmpo <6' allows a 54.2% FG% (193/356).

For FGAs <10' Jokic allows a 59.3% FG% (492/829), one of the highest/worst among starting Cs. Gobert 47.0% (332/706). Antetokounmpo 52.7% (227/431).

That means for this 2023-24 season Jokic is one of the worst shot defenders among Cs in the league.

What "advanced" stats are telling you Jokic is a "severely underrated defender"? If they do not take into consideration shot defense then they are clearly flawed and of no use for evaluating defense.

I think that one thing missing in this analysis is the fact that Jokic contests a lot of shots. He’s consistently near the very top of the league in number of contested FG’s within 6 feet per game. He’s a very active defender. Some of the high FG% against him is reflective of the fact that he’s contesting attempts that other people just wouldn’t contest.

That's not the whole story though.

Players like Rudy Gobert completely deter a player from shooting in the first place, which is why his shot contest numbers are lower.

Those possessions result in a shot which has a significantly lower eFG% than Jokic's contested FG%.

This doesn’t make him a great rim protector, but it is a significant mitigating factor to the FG% at the rim.

Significantly less impactful than a player who is literally deterring FGA at the rim in the first place, since FGA at the rim are the highest efficiency shots.

Yeah, I think that’s surely right. But I don’t think that accounts for all of it. In other words, I think Jokic contests more shots both because he’s not a major deterrent but also because he’s very active. The former is obviously a reflection of a bad thing, but the latter is a good thing that is something of a mitigating factor.

And, more generally, I don’t think it can be said overall that Jokic is a bad defensive player. He definitely is subpar for his position in rim protection—which is, of course, a big deal. And there are some bigs that can move a bit faster on the perimeter (though they essentially all get cooked on an island against really good perimeter players). But he is really good in other areas. He’s very active, his positioning is quite good, he’s got abnormally great hands for someone of his size, he doesn’t commit many dumb fouls, he gets back in transition far better than most bigs, he has the strength to be tough to move in the post, and he is an absolutely elite defensive rebounder. That is a set of very significant positives. And I think on balance it leaves him as a genuinely positive defensive player—a conclusion that impact data generally is supportive of. In general, I’d say the defensive effect of Jokic is probably about as high as a really good defensive wing or guard (and the Engelmann RAPM data backs that up, FWIW). Which is to say that it’s definitely noticeably below top-tier defensive centers, but is still a genuine positive.

[Colbinii]

I don't think anyone sees Jokic comparable defensively to Gobert, especially as a rim protector or deterrent.

Right, I am simply using him as an example.

Which is to say that it’s definitely noticeably below top-tier defensive centers, but is still a genuine positive.

Yup. Most elite rebounders grade out as positive defensive players.

[Peregrine01]

I think that one thing missing in this analysis is the fact that Jokic contests a lot of shots. He’s consistently near the very top of the league in number of contested FG’s within 6 feet per game. He’s a very active defender. Some of the high FG% against him is reflective of the fact that he’s contesting attempts that other people just wouldn’t contest.

That's not the whole story though.

Players like Rudy Gobert completely deter a player from shooting in the first place, which is why his shot contest numbers are lower.

Those possessions result in a shot which has a significantly lower eFG% than Jokic's contested FG%.

This doesn’t make him a great rim protector, but it is a significant mitigating factor to the FG% at the rim.

Significantly less impactful than a player who is literally deterring FGA at the rim in the first place, since FGA at the rim are the highest efficiency shots.

I don't think anyone sees Jokic comparable defensively to Gobert, especially as a rim protector or deterrent.

The standards that Jokic is compared to with respect to his rim protection is a little ridiculous. Gobert? AD? Giannis? Yeah, we know he's not a rim protector on the level of those guys. Neither is a lot of bigs. Hell if he was, we're talking about the unquestioned GOAT.

But I've seen his defense improve a lot over the years by just getting better positionally and improving his awareness. The Nuggets are a top-10 defense this year and was very strong throughout the playoffs last year so whatever he's doing isn't really detracting from their team defense.

I also think a lot of posters tend to think of offense and defense as completely separate when they flow together. The Nuggets have such a great crunch-time defense in large part because of their offense - they can slow the pace to a crawl and still generate an easy look on every possession. They don't take bad shots and generate turnovers so teams are taking the ball out of the basket on almost every possession.

The other thing is rebounding, which I think a lot of people underestimate in its impact. If you can't close out possessions then you're not getting a stop and offensive rebounds typically lead to the most efficient shots. Jokic is one of the best defensive rebounders I've ever seen. He mixes a Rodman-like motor, anticipation and ability to track the ball and takes up space in the paint like Shaq.