2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread

[Doctor MJ]

It's that time!

Every season the RealGM PC board does it's All-Season awards for the NBA.

"All-Season" means we factor in both the regular season and the playoffs - and we generally do this about a week after the Finals end.

The awards we give are:

Player of the Year (POY) - most accomplished overall player of that season.
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) - most accomplished offensive player of that season.
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) - most accomplished defensive player of that season.
Rookie of the Year (ROY) - most accomplished rookie of that season.
Most Improved Player (MIP) - player whose improvement was the most noteworthy accomplishment.
6th Man of the Year (6MOY) - most accomplished player eligible as a 6th man that season.
Coach of the Year (COY) - most accomplished coach of that season.
Executive of the Year (EOY) - most accomplished GM/front office leader of that season.

POY has a 5-man ballot, all others have a 3-man ballot.
Only full ballots will be counted, and each ballot must be given some reasoning in the voting post.
For voters, POY is mandatory, all others are optional.

To participate:
1. Ask to be added to the panel by PMing me.
2. Contribute positively to the Discussion thread. (Note that past participants in good standing are generally cut some slack here, but I really do want everyone to be in Discussion in the playoffs.)

For reference, here's the list of previous award winners. Note that all years prior to 2009-10 were done as part of the Retro Player of the Year project, while later years were done after the season in question. All specific votes are listed in theoriginal Retro POY thread first post. Note also that beginning in 2014-15 we added the non-POY awards.

If you'd like to geek out about award shares, you can find the total tallies for POY, OPOY & DPOY here.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm going to start the discussion by asking people specifically what sites/analytics/tools they are using for the '23-24 season. You don't have to use any such tools to participate, but those who aren't aware of resources benefit from becoming aware of what others use, and this is particularly the case given that those who make useful tools online often get hired for their skills and then their sites go dark.

An obvious question is: What's the best RAPM data we have for this season?

[Doctor MJ]

I'll also add some basketball prompts to get discussion going:

- Much of the MVP discussion on the GB this year has been focused on Embiid & Doncic. The former argued against primarily due to missed time, the latter argued against often because of things pertaining to the production/impact disconnect that Benjust made a video on. What do you think about them as POY candidates?

Watch on YouTube

- Some in the media have started talking about Wemby as an actual DPOY candidate for this year. What do you think about that?

- For ROY, we have a couple of all-timers in Wemby & Chet. What're your thoughts there?

- Some of the less glamorous awards actually take the most research. For anyone who has already dived in, whose on your mind for MIP & 6MOY?

- From an EOY perspective, what are the big moves that front offices have made beginning last off-season that seem most impressive to you?

[Doctor MJ]

If you're new with this, there are some things where there are hard criteria, and others where personal philosophy is allowed to. I'll speak to both while also giving my personal perspective where appropriate:

Hard rule: This is not about what might have been, it's about what was. If the best player in the world doesn't play in the NBA this year, he's not eligible. If he plays but doesn't make a dent due to injury or other issues, he shouldn't be getting votes.

The original concern along these lines came to a head during the Retro POY project for '68-69. That was the year where Wilt pushed his way to the Lakers building arguably the first super-team, but group never fully synergized and in the end didn't really do better than they'd don the previous year without Wilt.

As the one running the project, I didn't say people couldn't vote for Wilt at #1, but I did say they needed to give a justification based on what was accomplished that year. A particular posted refused insisting that he had Wilt at #1 because he thought Wilt was the best player and would have accomplished more than anyone else in most situations. His vote was not counted and he quit the project.

Hard rule: You're eligible for our ROY if you're eligible for the NBA's ROY.

Hard rule: All non-rookies are eligible for MIP.

Hard rule: To be eligible for 6MOY you need to either come off the bench more than start in the regular season OR come off the bench more than start in the all-season (RS & PS) combined. Simply being a 6th man in the playoffs will not make you eligible.

Hard rule: EOY justification is to be done based on the past 12 months (in a normal year) including the preceding off-season and current season.

Philosophical: Regular season vs playoff weighting is up to you. For me personally, I start with my regular season ordering and adjust based on accomplishments in the playoffs.

Philosophical: Floor-raising, ceiling-raising, etc. For me personally, I'm cautious about guys I have ceiling-raising concerns about.

Philosophical: The line between offense and defense. For example, a steal is a defensive action that tends to have more offensive than defensive impact in a lot of cases. how should credit be allocated for OPOY vs DPOY in such a case? For me I tend to classify based on the type of action I see, rather than where it shows up in ORtg/DRtg.

Philosophical: How much do injuries matter? They need to matter some, but how much, what times of the season matter the most are up to you. For me personally, injuries matter to the extent they ended up mattering when all is said and done. A great, deep playoff run can make me not care about regular season injuries. A deep playoffs injury isn't going to make a guy drop below a guy whose team is already eliminated.

Philosophical: What should ROY mean? Is it the most valuable rookie? Is it the best rookie by season's end? Is it the guy most worthy of hype after what we saw from the rookie year? For me personally, I find this to be very tricky, but I definitely don't just go by the most valuable rookie, because sometimes that's a role player who just happened to end up in the right situation, and none someone who will be important going forward.

Philosophical: Should there be any restriction on MIP beyond the basic non-rookie status? Maybe no 2nd year players, etc? For me personally, I just don't vote for guys who made all-star or other higher awards in previous seasons, because I believe the award is effectively beneath them.

[eminence]

Jokic
Tatum
SGA
Luka
Giannis

My top 5 as the RS ends, fairly flexible for PO changes, Wolves duo (Ant/Rudy) and the old guard (LeBron/Steph/Kawhi) in particular in position to quickly move up. Embiid maybe too if they can go deep.

[Colbinii]

Player of the Year (POY) - most accomplished overall player of that season.

Jokic, Luka, Giannis and SGA are a tier ahead of everyone else for me at the moment. Plenty of players could end the season in consideration for Top 5, including Embiid, Tatum, LeBron, AD, Rudy, ANT, Kawhi, Brunson, Sabonis and Curry, though all of them have an incredible amount of ground to make-up to catch the Top 4.

Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) - most accomplished offensive player of that season.

Jokic, Luka and SGA with Sabonis and Haliburton trailing

Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) - most accomplished defensive player of that season.

Rudy ahead of Bam with Wemby, Hartenstein and AD the next 3 up

Rookie of the Year (ROY) - most accomplished rookie of that season.

Wemby, though I am excited to see a couple rookies in the post-season in Lively, Wallace, Chet, JJJ and Podz

Most Improved Player (MIP) - player whose improvement was the most noteworthy accomplishment.

SGA and Brunson

[LukaTheGOAT]

I'll also add some basketball prompts to get discussion going:

- Much of the MVP discussion on the GB this year has been focused on Embiid & Doncic. The former argued against primarily due to missed time, the latter argued against often because of things pertaining to the production/impact disconnect that Benjust made a video on. What do you think about them as POY candidates?

Watch on YouTube

- Some in the media have started talking about Wemby as an actual DPOY candidate for this year. What do you think about that?

- For ROY, we have a couple of all-timers in Wemby & Chet. What're your thoughts there?

- Some of the less glamorous awards actually take the most research. For anyone who has already dived in, whose on your mind for MIP & 6MOY?

- From an EOY perspective, what are the big moves that front offices have made beginning last off-season that seem most impressive to you?

This is still from the very end of March but some added context on the Luka situation:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

-I wouldn't be opposed to Wemby winning a DPOY. I think Gobert is the safer bet maybe for better defender due to experience, positioning, better strength, and the fact that we know how his defense adds value around an already elite defensive roster that translates to the highest levels. But I'm not actually certain Gobert is better than Wemby.

-I think Wemby has done enough at this point to be ROY over Chet. I think Wemby has been better since say Jan.? It's very possible Wemby wouldn't be able to do Chet's role on offense as well in OKC, but I do not see Wemby as not being able to scale his offense with better players. He's nearing GOAT lob threat territory, active off-ball, and is a good passer. I would go with him.

-6MOY is probably Naz Reid for me. He's stepped in for KAT and arguably the Timberwolves have seen no drop-off. Efficient and smart. Fine enough defender.

-EOY...idk. This often is more opportunity based than anything but I like what the Mavs did at the trade deadline so maybe Nico Harrison deserves a shoutout. Also, I thought OG Aunoboy for the Knicks was a ballsy call that has worked wonderfully. So maybe Leon Rose too?

[eminence]

I do not understand why Tatum isn't more appreciated.

Great all around game, monster impact, great team, never misses meaningful time, good playoff success/play.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I do not understand why Tatum isn't more appreciated.

Great all around game, monster impact, great team, never misses meaningful time, good playoff success/play.

Eye-test

[eminence]

I do not understand why Tatum isn't more appreciated.

Great all around game, monster impact, great team, never misses meaningful time, good playoff success/play.

Eye-test

Anything in particular you aren't seeing from him that you'd need to have him as a strong top 5 contention type guy?

The bolded was in reference to my personal impressions of his game. He's passing mine - probably the guy I'm 3rd most impressed by this season after Jokic and Embiid when healthy.

[Doctor MJ]

I'll also add some basketball prompts to get discussion going:

- Much of the MVP discussion on the GB this year has been focused on Embiid & Doncic. The former argued against primarily due to missed time, the latter argued against often because of things pertaining to the production/impact disconnect that Benjust made a video on. What do you think about them as POY candidates?

Watch on YouTube

- Some in the media have started talking about Wemby as an actual DPOY candidate for this year. What do you think about that?

- For ROY, we have a couple of all-timers in Wemby & Chet. What're your thoughts there?

- Some of the less glamorous awards actually take the most research. For anyone who has already dived in, whose on your mind for MIP & 6MOY?

- From an EOY perspective, what are the big moves that front offices have made beginning last off-season that seem most impressive to you?

This is still from the very end of March but some added context on the Luka situation:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Excellent data. Makes me repeat my call for a '23-24 RAPM source.

I've gotten into it with Luka supporters quite a bit over the GB and that's just gone poorly so I want to take care here - though I'm more optimistic in general with y'all in finding common ground.

To me it's never been a matter of saying "Luka can't possibly show massive amounts of scoreboard-family impact", but me waiting to see it way longer than I expect. That wait is enough to convince me that Luka can put up massive numbers without massive impact, and that means him putting up even-more-massive numbers isn't enough to make me think "This has to be totally different now!", but all it will take is sufficient data and my I'll move passed the cautiousness.

I'll also note that Luka's raw +/- data has looked quite favorable after the mid-season trades, which could be another side of things changing - even if that might end up saying more about fit than anything else.

Going back to your data: It looks pretty awesome for Luka, but so awesome that we got something weird happening:

If (Luka with 3 or bench guys = +9.8) and (Luka overall = +4.7)
Then Luka with 2 or less bench guys <4.7)

The various possibilities of explanation here I see:

1. Other than Luka, the Mavs their best players coming off the bench.
2. Luka fits better with the players on the bench.
3. Too much noise.

I'd imagine that no one actually thinks (1), and if it's (3) then we should simply not take it seriously. So to me, further questions pertaining to (2) are where to go next:

- If Luka fits better with bench players, why? What can we learn about how to build around a Luka-shaped puzzle piece?
- Is this a new phenomenon, or has it tended to be this way in his career across coaches? If it's not new, then that becomes very, very important.
- How much does this trend change after the mid-season trades? What might have caused that change?

[eminence]

A '24 RAPM source: https://psteve.shinyapps.io/RAPM/

[Special_Puppy]

Time-Decay RAPM: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhwOLqPu2F9026EQiVxFPIN1t9RGafGpl-dokaIsm9c/edit#gid=923517192

Luck-Adjusted RAPM: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ee-6CqSFnfKZLC99-ar5SD4UVfN08qSW5vlxTVusPYs/edit#gid=1061648709

[Doctor MJ]

I do not understand why Tatum isn't more appreciated.

Great all around game, monster impact, great team, never misses meaningful time, good playoff success/play.

Eye-test

Anything in particular you aren't seeing from him that you'd need to have him as a strong top 5 contention type guy?

The bolded was in reference to my personal impressions of his game. He's passing mine - probably the guy I'm 3rd most impressed by this season after Jokic and Embiid when healthy.

So, I'm not one to say I use an "eye test" as something that carries specific weight for me in player ranking, but I certainly notice how much guys tend to "pop" for me when I watch them, and I'd say I'm with everyone else that Tatum pops less for me than basically any of the other guys who have gotten major MVP contention in recent years.

But as you're alluding to, the data has long told a super-positive story of Tatum to the point where I can confidently say I think Tatum is more effective at basketball than some guys who have won MVP.

The most interesting thing for me then is less about "Which test is right?" and more about "Why are two things that are normally more in sync for me misaligned in this case?"

Honestly, as an intellectual guy well aware of his weaknesses as a real-time observer, I generally tend to think first about what I'm likely to be missing in my observation. I think the biggest factors I'm aware of are:

1. A struggle to add up offensive and defensive impact intuitively. Tatum's good on both ends of the floor, is it enough to make up for being significantly weaker on offense than the very best? I simply need data to have any confidence I'm doing that right.

2. A certain ugliness to 3-point shooting that I think still can make me underrate it when it's used a lot. And yes, that's a pretty amazing thing to exist inside the brain of a guy who has been such a pace-and-space guy. I shouldn't claim that I didn't see beauty in the SSOL Suns or the Joyball Warriors because I absolutely did, but I think it's one of those things where the once something beautiful gets mechanized, it gets less beautiful even as it gets more effective.

One of the foundations of this idea for me is based on the fact that when we watch the game we do so basket-by-basket rather than point-by-point. 2 threes count as much as 3 twos, but the former implies that we observed a 3rd three that missed along the way, which means that one of these felt like a 66.7% to us instead of 100%. And I think this phenomenon can lead some of us astray.

Of course this makes us ask why it doesn't seem to affect me the same way with the Suns or the Warriors, and there my guess is:

3. These Celtics have a history of an offense that can seem to just get lost over the course of a game, like a machine unplugged. As a result, they've been an unusually frustrating team to watch given how freaking good they've been for so long. There's a precariousness to them that hinders faith.

4. And finally after all that broader team context, there's the matter that Tatum isn't just the best player on a team with some sand in the watch, he really typifies the approach of the team. Note that there was a good while there when a contingent of folks would argue that Brown was actually the better scorer, and I'd argue that this was not unrelated to the fact that he takes more twos than Tatum while Tatum takes more threes.

5. I'd be remiss though if I didn't also mention that it helps to have a signature thing I can point to best-in-world. I think we generally underrate the holistic impact a generalist can have.

Okay now of course there are issues the other way around with scoreboard family stats (+/- etc):

1. Average impact is not a measure of scheme/matchup resilience, and while scoreboard family stats excel in the regular season with its rich sample, the latter is what NBA culture has come to define itself around.

2. Traditionally these Celtics have been better on defense than offense, and while there's no doubt that Tatum's a significant cog in that machine, I think there's the general feeling that the Celtic defense was more about the team defense than it was about Tatum being a real DPOY guy. And when you're part of a defense like that, there's a danger of what I might call a "brittle" impact indicator. Maybe you're having that much impact on that roster, but maybe you couldn't do anything like that on other teams...and maybe your current team wouldn't really struggle that hard to slightly adjust with an affordable off-season acquisition to be similarly good.

To be clear: I'm not saying brittle impact should definitively be judged inferior in accomplishment to resilient impact. I think people should think on that themselves, discuss if they want, but come to their own conclusions about how this axis of attribute factors into their assessment.

Of course the Celtic offense this season is through the moon, but it's also happening with an approach that's a bit less Tatum-centric...and I do think this is a big part of what's going on specifically right now:

I just think Tatum more obviously stood out for the Celtics last year, and it's hard to win the MVP by decreasing your load.

[Doctor MJ]

A '24 RAPM source: https://psteve.shinyapps.io/RAPM/

Time-Decay RAPM: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhwOLqPu2F9026EQiVxFPIN1t9RGafGpl-dokaIsm9c/edit#gid=923517192

Luck-Adjusted RAPM: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ee-6CqSFnfKZLC99-ar5SD4UVfN08qSW5vlxTVusPYs/edit#gid=1061648709

My appreciation to both of you. Definitely interested in more discussion about the sources, but just to put this stuff together in terms of the MVP candidates I hear discussed:

Stevenson 1-year:

SGA 4.09
Edwards 3.64
Kawhi 3.02
Jokic 2.95
Giannis 2.89
Haliburton 2.73
Embiid 2.69
Tatum 2.46
Brunson 2.30
Doncic 1.18

Medvedovsky Time-Decay RAPM):
Jokic 8.43
Kawhi 6.48
Giannis 5.81
Embiid 5.10
Tatum 4.71
Brunson 4.34
SGA 4.24
Doncic 2.63
Edwards 2.28
Haliburton 0.83

LA-RAPM 1-year (Who is the author?):
Giannis 3.29
Jokic 2.58
Kawhi 2.26
Doncic 2.24
SGA 1.63
Embiid 1.57
Brunson 1.39
Tatum 1.22
Haliburton 0.54
Edwards 0.03

Obviously there's never any one definitive answer here, but some general thoughts:

I think the idea of DARKO is awesome. It's not a perfect fit for a season-long discussion, but basketball-wise it might be the most useful tool around.

I think luck adjusted numbers are on average better than non-luck adjusted, but I also think we have to keep in mind that "luck" here means asserting that a player has absolutely no impact on a given stat, and so it should be normalized away...and there's no way to prove that that assertion is actually correct.

This then to say I think LA-RAPM can be worse than more vanilla RAPM for any given player, and so when there's a big difference between the two, I tend to interpret that as uncertainty about the player rather than a true correction.

[eminence]

Of course the Celtic offense this season is through the moon, but it's also happening with an approach that's a bit less Tatum-centric...and I do think this is a big part of what's going on specifically right now:

I just think Tatum more obviously stood out for the Celtics last year, and it's hard to win the MVP by decreasing your load.

I don't see Tatum as having had a meaningful role/load change over the last few years (on the offensive end at least, he's back to the 4 a bit more on defense this season). He's passing a bit more this season compared to last, but that makes sense to me with the addition of Porzingis. The overall offensive load seems consistent, as an example - his time of possession has stayed between 4.7 and 4.9 minutes/game the last 4 seasons.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I do not understand why Tatum isn't more appreciated.

Great all around game, monster impact, great team, never misses meaningful time, good playoff success/play.

Eye-test

Anything in particular you aren't seeing from him that you'd need to have him as a strong top 5 contention type guy?

The bolded was in reference to my personal impressions of his game. He's passing mine - probably the guy I'm 3rd most impressed by this season after Jokic and Embiid when healthy.

Simply put, we've seen Tatum before.

He's literally Paul George redux. Just swap out some defensive aptitude with more playmaking.

That's a strong All-NBA kind of guy, but not someone who is a real MVP threat in my opinion. I add up a player's offense and defense evaluations, to get an overall total for them, and there is just no way Tatum could be the guy that plus-minus numbers suggest him to be unless he was a true DPOY guy or a top 5ish offensive player. Instead, I think Tatum probably has been an sub all-time level wing defender at his best who is probably not a top 10 offensive player (and if he is, he is on the fringes).

There is nothing about his game that suggests he should be materially higher than this. His skillset isn't robust enough to make me rethink these evaluations until further notice. The last 3 PS, he has been at about 25 pts per 75 on neutral efficiency...very meh. This means you would have to think his good off-ball play, and playmaking is doing a lot of lifting in his offensive evaluation. Once again, I don't see how, his shooting is probably sub elite. He is a fine playmaker, but probably less than Mitchell or Booker, and definitely not materially more than them.

Tatum actually is a quality driver when he decides to put his head down, and he can finish at the rim, but he doesn't do at the volume he needs to.

Defensively, he is sound and smart, and can defend the nail. But he doesn't have the athletic attributes to being DPOY at a the wingspan, falling short of Pippen, Lebron, Paul George, and probably even Kawhi. And Tatum also has a lower motor than those guys too I think, which puts him at a disadvantage.

I'm not willing to just bow to the plus-minus, unless I feel like there is a materially skill that explains why he elevates his team more. I do believe the box-score can be a decent proxy of what a player can do in a vacuum in other situations, as it is less volatile than plus-minus from situation to situation.

Tatum's offense would have to be at say a Bob McAdoo, Elgin Baylor, or Rick Barry level for him to be in that MVP level (along with his peak defense).

Tatum is a good all-around player, as he is probably more good at more areas than Luka, Jokic, Giannis. But when you don't have certain features you are all-time at, such as ATG isolation play, ATG passing, ATG rim-finishing, then you are likely going to end up behind those guys.

[AEnigma]

First-Team All-NBA
1. Jokic
2. Shai
3. Giannis
4. Luka
5. Tatum

This has only light bearing on my ultimate ballot. Tatum needs at least a conference finals run. Luka likely needs to win a series. Mixed on Giannis because he could have a brutal first-round matchup against the 76ers (also true for the Celtics but the Celtics can win that series with Tatum having a bad series). Shai and Jokic are probably secure, although there too I would generally want at least one series won, because if we have a conference finals with the Knicks and the 76ers and the Lakers and the Timberwolves, well, several of these regular season names will be pushed out.

For Offensive Player of the year, Jokic and Luka are locks to make the ballot. Tough to envision Jokic not winning, but it is possible. Can see multiple options joining those two depending on the postseason.

For Defensive Player of the Year, it is Gobert barring an incredible run by Davis. Wembanyama is currently on the ballot but has no opportunity to improve his standing. Bam and Chet currently narrowly missing the cut, and Porzingis will also have the opportunity to earn his way.

Brad Stevens will make the Executive Ballot. Many capable names this year beyond that.

Not discussing coaching without playoffs.

Agree with Naz Reid for sixth man ballot and regular season leader. Will look at other names later depending on postseason.

Still dislike the usual process behind Most Improved, but Maxey fits the bill and will make my ballot.

[Special_Puppy]

A '24 RAPM source: https://psteve.shinyapps.io/RAPM/

Time-Decay RAPM: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhwOLqPu2F9026EQiVxFPIN1t9RGafGpl-dokaIsm9c/edit#gid=923517192

Luck-Adjusted RAPM: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ee-6CqSFnfKZLC99-ar5SD4UVfN08qSW5vlxTVusPYs/edit#gid=1061648709

Source for Luck Adjusted RAPM is Krishna Narsu

[eminence]

I'd have Tatum somewhere from 3rd to 5th on offense only (Jokic/Doncic/then undecided vs current Steph/SGA).

He's a significantly upgraded Paul George on that end (who himself was pretty good at peak - grabbing a #4 POY finish in 2019).
-Worse shooter
-Better rim pressure (and the according foul draw)
-Better passer/ball control/decision maker
-Better off-ball mover/screen setter

On the defensive end, George is certainly quicker and a notably better on ball perimeter defender. Tatum functions as more of a big man, contributing more on the glass and in secondary rim protection.