2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread

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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#41 » by Colbinii » Wed Apr 10, 2024 12:54 am

tone wone wrote:Helio-centric is basically a slur now :lol:


In a practical sense, Nikola Jokic and Pivot-Passers are the most heliocentric players there are.

They are more centralized than a player like Harden or Luka who typically make their decisions from the top of the key. The other players are running around Pivot-Passers, up to 360 degrees, while a player at the top of the key typically has, at most, 180 degrees of optionality versus 360 degrees.

Sabonis is an even better example of this. Most of his touches are within 3-5 feet of the free throw line and from there he can pass in any direction to a teammate or drive/post-up with an array of moves.

These players are far more centralized in an offense--heliocentric--compared to perimeter oriented players.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#42 » by eminence » Wed Apr 10, 2024 1:34 am

I guess I haven't thought too much of the imagery the term has, more of a short hand for 'makes a high percentage of a teams offensive decisions'.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#43 » by Colbinii » Wed Apr 10, 2024 2:01 am

eminence wrote:I guess I haven't thought too much of the imagery the term has, more of a short hand for 'makes a high percentage of a teams offensive decisions'.


I agree, but I think the term developed too many negative connotations over the past decade to first describe LeBron, then Harden and then Luka/Trae.

A player like Haliburton plays similar to Harden/Luka to a point but Haliburton has a lot of the eccentric Nash side to him and seems to be quicker with his decisions, likely because he is far worse in isolation.

Tatum is obviously less than these players in terms of heliocentricism, and that shouldn't be viewed as a negative.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#44 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 10, 2024 3:42 am

Colbinii wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
I think it's because he isn't Helio in the same way SGA/Luka/Jokic/Embiid are.

Tatum plays much more with-in the system than any of these guys, as all aforementioned players are the system.

As Sheev Palpatine said "I am the Senate"


So, I agree with the spirit of what you're saying, but would push back at using the same "Helio" term for both LeBron-types and Jokic-types because I believe that they actually represent opposite extremes of play in terms of the star looking to either control the ball, or pass readily, and by some perspectives this would put a Tatum-type somewhere in between them.


I wouldn't put LeBron-types and Jokic-types as the two extremes.

I would put Harden-types and Jokic-types as the two extremes.


Understandable but I think you know what I mean. Harden plays like he does because LeBron played like LeBron did. They are of definitely part of the same phylum. Jokic something else entirely.

Colbinii wrote:
It's not that I can't see a definition for "heliocentric" where Jokic qualifies - I think the celestial analogy would be more apt for a pivot- passing model, but I think it's really significant to understand that the fact that Jokic can put up numbers like he does is actually a rebuttal to the idea that a star has to be ready to lose credit in order to not just hog the ball.


I'm not really understanding this part.

The entire Denver Nuggets offense is built on Jokic's ability to read-and-react to the defense in nano-seconds. This either involves Jokic quickly getting the ball into the hands of the other 4 players on the court at the correct time, or running spread P&R game with Murray where Jokic is dictating the action while Murray feeds off of Jokic's brilliance.


The way you're phrasing it makes it sound like you think any offense that's built around an amazing offensive player who does more than just scoring qualifies as "heliocentric". I understand if that's how you interpret it, but regardless of labels we put on things, Jokic plays a fundamentally different style than the LeBrons do. Understanding that difference is meaningful, and lumping them in the same category obscures that difference.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#45 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 10, 2024 4:30 am

Colbinii wrote:
eminence wrote:I guess I haven't thought too much of the imagery the term has, more of a short hand for 'makes a high percentage of a teams offensive decisions'.


I agree, but I think the term developed too many negative connotations over the past decade to first describe LeBron, then Harden and then Luka/Trae.

A player like Haliburton plays similar to Harden/Luka to a point but Haliburton has a lot of the eccentric Nash side to him and seems to be quicker with his decisions, likely because he is far worse in isolation.

Tatum is obviously less than these players in terms of heliocentricism, and that shouldn't be viewed as a negative.


Well I think the negative connotations pertaining to heliocentrism are pretty specific:

By encouraging players to stand around as far away from the fulcrum of action as possible, you're basically treating them like them using their basketball brains to make basketball decisions will only hurt your team.

By contrast, if an offense is encouraging off-ball players to make proactive decisions that include dramatic improvised movement, then the other players are being encouraged to use their basketball brain with the faith it will help the team.

If you say that all of this exists within heliocentrism just on opposite ends of the spectrum, I get it, but just makes "heliocentrism" a not very useful descriptor of what's going on. The idea that a star would have considerably greater primacy than his teammates - centering your strategy around Helios - is essentially baked into the "star" concept right from the start.

But let me quit my rambling by just recognizing one other thing about how I see things that might be confusing matters.

Years back on the PC Board we used to use the term "unipolar" to describe lone-star dominant scheme, and we basically gave that up when Seth Partnow coined the far more fun "heliocentric" label, and in doing so basically assuming that what Partnow was talking about the exact same concept...

but as I read back on his original article, I'm struck by the lack of actual basketball description in the article. It makes sense given that Partnow is a statistically oriented guy that he would see the important thing to be essentially the same thing as the box score footprint, but that's emphasizing the result rather than the process, and to me process - how the basketball is actually playing out - is what I'm trying to talk about.

The funny thing about all of this is that as a physics dude, I absolutely get a kick out of the name "heliocentrism", but I also have misgivings with the fact that it's not applied with a rotation-oriented mindset. I'd prefer it only applied to offenses built around cutting around the guy with the ball because the analogy would be more apt - which would leave Jokic the true Helio, and everyone else something else - but as they say, that horse is already out of the barn. 8-)
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#46 » by Ambrose » Wed Apr 10, 2024 2:18 pm

Heading into the playoffs with:

Jokic/Luka/SGA/Giannis/Tatum. There are about 5 other guys contending, but some weird stuff will have to happen for that top 5 to shift a ton.
 
Gobert as my heavy favorite for DPOY.

Naz for 6th man.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#47 » by Colbinii » Wed Apr 10, 2024 2:37 pm

Bam Adebayo is the player I think gets often forgotten in these threads.

He is the most important player on both offense and defense for Miami. Most of their actions involve him in DHO's or P&R.

Defensively, he is the epitome of "Can guard 1-5". His box score passes the eye-test at 19/10/5/1/1, > 2:1 AST:TO, 25% USG% is large enough where he clearly carries an offensive burden, his shot-diet is invaluable with > 35% of his FGA from the mid-range while he ballooned up to 30% DREB% this season [previous career high of 26%].

Unfortunately the carousel of players [9 players > 1000 minutes, 12 players > 800 minutes, only 1 other player in a rookie > 2000 minutes] has clearly hurt the Heat in multiple ways yet they are clawing their way into a Milwaukee/Miami 1st round series with potentially no Giannis.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#48 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Apr 10, 2024 4:16 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
By encouraging players to stand around as far away from the fulcrum of action as possible, you're basically treating them like them using their basketball brains to make basketball decisions will only hurt your team.



Not trying to convince you of anything obviously as your thoughts on this style of play are well-known and well-established and I respect that.

But I think this is a bit unfair. More what they are saying is that Lebron or Harden or Luka are going to make the best decisions of anyone on the team so we want them making the most of them. And we have seen this tends to be really good for the team.

Its great if you have an early 00's Kings roster with smart decision makers up and down the lineup and off the bench, but most teams don't have that. And so rather than letting Tim Hardaway make offensive decisions much better to just let him shoot the open 3 Luka gets him. Gafford just finishing the lob Luka gets him, etc...

Just like when you have Mahomes or Brady or Montana, you put the ball in their hands and they make the decisions. When you have a power play, The Great One or Matthews gets the puck. De Bruyne should have the ball as much as possible and so on.

Let your smartest players make the most decisions.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#49 » by Peregrine01 » Wed Apr 10, 2024 5:33 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
By encouraging players to stand around as far away from the fulcrum of action as possible, you're basically treating them like them using their basketball brains to make basketball decisions will only hurt your team.



Not trying to convince you of anything obviously as your thoughts on this style of play are well-known and well-established and I respect that.

But I think this is a bit unfair. More what they are saying is that Lebron or Harden or Luka are going to make the best decisions of anyone on the team so we want them making the most of them. And we have seen this tends to be really good for the team.

Its great if you have an early 00's Kings roster with smart decision makers up and down the lineup and off the bench, but most teams don't have that. And so rather than letting Tim Hardaway make offensive decisions much better to just let him shoot the open 3 Luka gets him. Gafford just finishing the lob Luka gets him, etc...

Just like when you have Mahomes or Brady or Montana, you put the ball in their hands and they make the decisions. When you have a power play, The Great One or Matthews gets the puck. De Bruyne should have the ball as much as possible and so on.

Let your smartest players make the most decisions.


Largely agree with this. Despite Jokic's more egalitarian style, you'll notice that the Nuggets go almost exclusively to the Jokic/Murray two-man game to close out games. It literally produces the most effective offense I've ever seen and I wonder why they don't just spam it all game long but I suppose they do all the other stuff to get other guys going and keep them involved even if it's suboptimal on a play-by-play basis.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#50 » by Fundamentals21 » Wed Apr 10, 2024 5:48 pm

Read on Twitter


As part of his historic run, Sabonis has surpassed the best double-double seasons in modern history —Kevin Garnett (71 in 2003-04) and Hakeem Olajuwon (72 in 1992-93), the only other players besides himself and Malone to notch up 70 or more double-doubles since 1980-81.

Sabonis is also on track to join a shortlist of players in NBA history to earn All-NBA honors without being named an All-Star. Jimmy Butler in 2020-21 was the last player to make All-NBA but not the All-Star team. In recent years, Rudy Gobert (2018-19, 2016-17) and DeAndre Jordan (2014-15, 2015-16) achieved that feat twice.


Some non Top 5ers who are too good. Sabonis's numbers are really really good this year. IMO, def. a top 5 candidate in a weaker year.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#51 » by AEnigma » Wed Apr 10, 2024 6:16 pm

He really is the modern Truck Robinson.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#52 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 10, 2024 8:36 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
By encouraging players to stand around as far away from the fulcrum of action as possible, you're basically treating them like them using their basketball brains to make basketball decisions will only hurt your team.



Not trying to convince you of anything obviously as your thoughts on this style of play are well-known and well-established and I respect that.

But I think this is a bit unfair. More what they are saying is that Lebron or Harden or Luka are going to make the best decisions of anyone on the team so we want them making the most of them. And we have seen this tends to be really good for the team.

Its great if you have an early 00's Kings roster with smart decision makers up and down the lineup and off the bench, but most teams don't have that. And so rather than letting Tim Hardaway make offensive decisions much better to just let him shoot the open 3 Luka gets him. Gafford just finishing the lob Luka gets him, etc...

Just like when you have Mahomes or Brady or Montana, you put the ball in their hands and they make the decisions. When you have a power play, The Great One or Matthews gets the puck. De Bruyne should have the ball as much as possible and so on.

Let your smartest players make the most decisions.


I appreciate you being respectful toward me on this and elsewhere, and I should emphasize that it's not any kind of obvious thing what the best approach is to making use of a team's set of decision making talent.

You draw comparisons to quarterbacks in gridiron football, and that is the perfect analogy. Modern gridiron football is designed to put as much of the on-field decision making on offense into the quarterback's brain as possible, and so calling a guy like LeBron a quarterback makes a ton of sense.

And if it's the right approach for gridiron football, why wouldn't it be for basketball? Eh, while it might be, the difference is in the continuous flow of basketball. In gridiron football, one possession is carved up into discrete plays, and each play gives you one bite at the apple. In a flow sport, the play is not so discrete and while a team can play by running a "play", they can also just improvise based on where weaknesses present in the defense.

The great flow sport is of course association football, aka soccer, and in that sport you don't have one guy just keeping control of the ball all the time. You make passes back & forth and you work hard to re-position yourself when you don't have the ball. There are many terminologies for the role a player can play in soccer, but if you're looking for ultimate flow, I'd say this is typified by Johan Cruijff, and if you're looking for the basketball equivalent of Cruijff, it's probably Jokic.

To the question of why it would ever make sense for someone other than your best decision maker to be making decisions, it's because there's absolutely no need for only one guy to be making decisions in basketball. It's not a zero sum game. Playing the way Denver does doesn't make them make less use of Jokic's brain. It less the team use Jokic's brain as much as possible, while also making more use of other player's brains, and I'd say in general that's a win as long as the players in question are simply making decisions that are better than neutral. You can't do that with all players in the NBA, but that's mostly because of who NBA scouts are used to scouting for. It was clear that Andre Drummond really was struggling to understand the game of basketball despite ample years of training before he got drafted, but he got drafted anyway because of his body.

Now as I say, that still doesn't mean that a Jokic has a higher offensive team ceiling than a LeBron as any kind of rule. If a defense has an easier time messing with the flow of Jokic's teammates in a hard playoff series than they do with other supporting casts that are asked to think less, then maybe the most robust approach will turn out to be close to gridiron than association football.

But I do think that a lot of what makes life hard for NBA defenses is making them think hard for the entire shot-clock all game long, and so in general I favor offenses that seek to do this, rather than those that give defense a chance to rest as the offensive star gets his bearings.

Re: "When you have a Power Play, the Great One gets the puck". I'm not a hockey expert and would love comments from others, but it wasn't my impression that Gretzky's signature was "give him the puck and get out of his way". I feel like he was more known for seeming to know where the puck would go when no one was controlling it, and then using the 360-nature of the hockey goal against goalies by working behind the net.

I would say that I think Nash definitely had some Gretzky in his approach when he was "nashing", and I'm not fundamentally opposed to grouping Nash in with the LeBrons, so I don't want to seem like I'm pushing back too hard here, but I would say that if you're looking to make a spectrum with guys from other sports, I think Gretzky is somewhere between Brady & Cruijff, just as Nash is somewhere between LeBron & Jokic.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#53 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Apr 10, 2024 8:54 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:To the question of why it would ever make sense for someone other than your best decision maker to be making decisions, it's because there's absolutely no need for only one guy to be making decisions in basketball. It's not a zero sum game. Playing the way Denver does doesn't make them make less use of Jokic's brain. It less the team use Jokic's brain as much as possible, while also making more use of other player's brains, and I'd say in general that's a win as long as the players in question are simply making decisions that are better than neutral. You can't do that with all players in the NBA, but that's mostly because of who NBA scouts are used to scouting for. It was clear that Andre Drummond really was struggling to understand the game of basketball despite ample years of training before he got drafted, but he got drafted anyway because of his body.



But the argument isn't if teammates can make better decisions than neutral. It's if they can make better decisions than Jokic. And we know they can't. Now Jokic can't literally have the ball all the time. It's too predictable, fatigue enters in (Luka perhaps the best example here of how many monster 1st halves he has in comparison with 2nds).

But I don't want to run motion, or Princeton, or the Triangle if I have access to Jokic. Or Nash. Or Lebron. I want them to have the ball as much as possible. Doesn't mean the other players turn their brain off or don't make decisions, but I do want to simplify decisions for my role players for a couple of reasons: makes it easy to interchange the lineups when Jokic knows everyone is going to do X or Y or Z depending on what the defense does. He doesn't need some players also doing A, B, or C randomly. But also because while I'm going to have some really smart role players who have a really great basketball mind, I'm also going to have guys who need more structure and need a system that dictates to them what to do.

Right now Luka has lapped the league basically every year other than his rookie year in terms of both quantity and quality of shots created. Mavs dominate the top lists of percentage of 3's that are open or wide open, their bigs all feast at the rim and not just Lively and Gafford but lowly Dwight Powell for years before that. Even Christian Wood was part of the best PNR duo in the league. Christian Wood.

Obviously my other sports comparisons were imperfect. But yeah 99 in his office behind the net was church. And he was so good 4v4 that the league changed how they handled offsetting minors because the Oilers would intentionally set up that scenario and nobody could deal with him. And in futbol, you can't just give it to your 10 the whole game, but you certainly try to get them ball as much as possible because they create the most favorable opportunities.

TLDR -- If I have a savant, I want him to have the ball all the time. Take Clark, Caitlin -- Iowa didn't ultimately win it all because her teammates weren't good enough, but she kept creating layup after layup they were blowing. Even with her own shooting struggles late in the game, she was still creating the best offense by dominating the ball.

I don't want KCP, Gordon, even Murray making many decisions when I have maybe the smartest offensive player ever out there.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#54 » by AEnigma » Wed Apr 10, 2024 9:12 pm

If we want to talk theory about whether a system with five proactive passers is better than a system with one lead next to four others who act as an extension of that lead’s will, sure. As Chuck expressed, that is pretty rare, but the idea itself is fine.

The error is in treating those leads as incapable of adaptation while rewarding those demonstrably less capable of acting as a lead. I suspect Ohayo gets tuned out pretty often when discussing Jokic, but this where their point about Jokic’s ballhandling holds true: if we took someone like Magic and asked him to limit his dribble and basically mimic the role of Bird or Jokic, he could do that to a large degree (even if we may disagree on the precise extent), but Bird and Jokic just cannot function as ballhandlers in the same way. A player like Steph would be substantially better if he could pass like Nash… but he cannot, so instead he spends a larger amount of time maximising the passing opportunities of others.

And there are players who cannot adapt in those roles well. Steph can replace Lillard’s role in an offence much more easily than Lillard could replace Steph’s role in an offence, even ignoring how Steph is a better scorer. But when we talk about a guy like Lebron, who has thrived for years in off-ball actions and whose actual ball dominance has dramatically decreased since the 2000s (combination of team context and individual development), well, in terms of passing versatility, he should be seen as dramatically less limiting than someone like Larry Bird.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#55 » by eminence » Wed Apr 10, 2024 9:20 pm

I believe the conceptual selling point is that it is easier to have multiple people making a decision on the court at the same time in the Jokic model than in the Harden model (I don't find LeBron a particularly strong example of any particular style, he's quite versatile). Multiple people making decisions theoretically has a lower floor/higher ceiling appeal (I believe it remains mostly theoretical).

There are 3 distinct types of 'helios' in my mind (maybe others can add others):
Harden - Moderate movement from the primary in a relatively straight line from 3pt line to the rim, low movement supporting pieces
Jokic - Relatively stationary primary player, high amount of movement from the supporting pieces
Nash - High levels of movement from the primary - probing all over the floor, moderate amount of movement from supporting pieces

Edit:
Broadly - size sorts players as much as anything.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#56 » by Ambrose » Wed Apr 10, 2024 9:36 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:I'll also add some basketball prompts to get discussion going:

- Much of the MVP discussion on the GB this year has been focused on Embiid & Doncic. The former argued against primarily due to missed time, the latter argued against often because of things pertaining to the production/impact disconnect that Benjust made a video on. What do you think about them as POY candidates?

- Some in the media have started talking about Wemby as an actual DPOY candidate for this year. What do you think about that?

- For ROY, we have a couple of all-timers in Wemby & Chet. What're your thoughts there?

- Some of the less glamorous awards actually take the most research. For anyone who has already dived in, whose on your mind for MIP & 6MOY?

- From an EOY perspective, what are the big moves that front offices have made beginning last off-season that seem most impressive to you?


This is still from the very end of March but some added context on the Luka situation:

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Excellent data. Makes me repeat my call for a '23-24 RAPM source.

I've gotten into it with Luka supporters quite a bit over the GB and that's just gone poorly so I want to take care here - though I'm more optimistic in general with y'all in finding common ground.

To me it's never been a matter of saying "Luka can't possibly show massive amounts of scoreboard-family impact", but me waiting to see it way longer than I expect. That wait is enough to convince me that Luka can put up massive numbers without massive impact, and that means him putting up even-more-massive numbers isn't enough to make me think "This has to be totally different now!", but all it will take is sufficient data and my I'll move passed the cautiousness.

I'll also note that Luka's raw +/- data has looked quite favorable after the mid-season trades, which could be another side of things changing - even if that might end up saying more about fit than anything else.

Going back to your data: It looks pretty awesome for Luka, but so awesome that we got something weird happening:

If (Luka with 3 or bench guys = +9.8) and (Luka overall = +4.7)
Then Luka with 2 or less bench guys <4.7)

The various possibilities of explanation here I see:

1. Other than Luka, the Mavs their best players coming off the bench.
2. Luka fits better with the players on the bench.
3. Too much noise.

I'd imagine that no one actually thinks (1), and if it's (3) then we should simply not take it seriously. So to me, further questions pertaining to (2) are where to go next:

- If Luka fits better with bench players, why? What can we learn about how to build around a Luka-shaped puzzle piece?
- Is this a new phenomenon, or has it tended to be this way in his career across coaches? If it's not new, then that becomes very, very important.
- How much does this trend change after the mid-season trades? What might have caused that change?


Couldn't there theoretically be an option 4-playing with a quality rim runner/rim protector consistently on the floor for the first time?

Because his on/off numbers have skyrocketed once that happened. The way I see it, someone who Luka can fully utilize offensively, who they can cover for him defensively would be a match made in heaven. In the reverse, Dallas doesn't have anyone else who can utilize bigs in the same way on offense, thus limiting their contribution when he's not in.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#57 » by eminence » Wed Apr 10, 2024 9:43 pm

That would seem to just be 2?
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#58 » by Peregrine01 » Wed Apr 10, 2024 9:43 pm

One big downfall of guys like Luka and Harden who skew to the opposite extreme of a guy like Jokic - if you take the ball out of their hands, they're largely completely detached from the play and they don't make much effort to get back into it. This makes them more vulnerable to trapping defenses and ball denial and less likely to synergize well with other strong on-ball creators. Lebron can do the helio thing as well as those guys but he's also different in that he's still a great threat off the ball as a cutter and screen setter.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#59 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 10, 2024 10:02 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:To the question of why it would ever make sense for someone other than your best decision maker to be making decisions, it's because there's absolutely no need for only one guy to be making decisions in basketball. It's not a zero sum game. Playing the way Denver does doesn't make them make less use of Jokic's brain. It less the team use Jokic's brain as much as possible, while also making more use of other player's brains, and I'd say in general that's a win as long as the players in question are simply making decisions that are better than neutral. You can't do that with all players in the NBA, but that's mostly because of who NBA scouts are used to scouting for. It was clear that Andre Drummond really was struggling to understand the game of basketball despite ample years of training before he got drafted, but he got drafted anyway because of his body.



But the argument isn't if teammates can make better decisions than neutral. It's if they can make better decisions than Jokic. And we know they can't. Now Jokic can't literally have the ball all the time. It's too predictable, fatigue enters in (Luka perhaps the best example here of how many monster 1st halves he has in comparison with 2nds).

But I don't want to run motion, or Princeton, or the Triangle if I have access to Jokic. Or Nash. Or Lebron. I want them to have the ball as much as possible. Doesn't mean the other players turn their brain off or don't make decisions, but I do want to simplify decisions for my role players for a couple of reasons: makes it easy to interchange the lineups when Jokic knows everyone is going to do X or Y or Z depending on what the defense does. He doesn't need some players also doing A, B, or C randomly. But also because while I'm going to have some really smart role players who have a really great basketball mind, I'm also going to have guys who need more structure and need a system that dictates to them what to do.

Right now Luka has lapped the league basically every year other than his rookie year in terms of both quantity and quality of shots created. Mavs dominate the top lists of percentage of 3's that are open or wide open, their bigs all feast at the rim and not just Lively and Gafford but lowly Dwight Powell for years before that. Even Christian Wood was part of the best PNR duo in the league. Christian Wood.

Obviously my other sports comparisons were imperfect. But yeah 99 in his office behind the net was church. And he was so good 4v4 that the league changed how they handled offsetting minors because the Oilers would intentionally set up that scenario and nobody could deal with him. And in futbol, you can't just give it to your 10 the whole game, but you certainly try to get them ball as much as possible because they create the most favorable opportunities.

TLDR -- If I have a savant, I want him to have the ball all the time. Take Clark, Caitlin -- Iowa didn't ultimately win it all because her teammates weren't good enough, but she kept creating layup after layup they were blowing. Even with her own shooting struggles late in the game, she was still creating the best offense by dominating the ball.

I don't want KCP, Gordon, even Murray making many decisions when I have maybe the smartest offensive player ever out there.


What I'm saying is that Jokic is still making decisions without the ball that are affecting play and making the defense strain. The idea that only the guy with the ball makes the decisions just isn't true.

Now there's specific power to having the ball of course, and depending on the situation that power advantage might overwhelm whatever other advantages come into play, but I think in general it's useful to be encouraging all 5 of your players to be putting active chaos-strain on the defense all through the possession.

One stat I think worth chewing on is just Most Passes. Jokic has led the league in passes every year for I believe 6 years in a row now. If he played more like LeBron that wouldn't be happening. And while it makes sense to question whether Jokic would be even more impactful playing more in this style, making such a claim is essentially saying that the thing that made Jokic distinct in his approach to offense was fundamentally a mistake...despite the fact that Jokic being Jokic made him become the best offensive player in the world. I don't think that should be asserted hastily.

Re: Luka's teams dominate at...not dominating as much offensively as Jokic's teams tend to when he's on the floor, which is what they should be doing if that's the best approach, right? Maybe that's all in the process of changing, but in general the Jokic way has just worked better than the Luka way, and if this has nothing to do with Jokic's tendency to make quick passes - and thus lead the league in passing - that's pretty dang remarkable.

Re: want savant to have the ball all the time. But all these guys are known as "savants" because of their passing, and when you pass the ball, you don't have it any more. You're essentially saying "Hey Jokic, you're so good at passing that I want you to not pass so much.", and I think that should give you pause.

Is it possible that any player might pass the ball too readily rather than working with the ball to get an even better opportunity? Absolutely.

But do we really think we should be nitpicking Jokic's instincts here when they've led him to come out of nowhere as the most unlikely prospect to become best-in-world in more than half a century?

I think we should consider maybe that we have more to learn from Jokic than he has to learn from us.
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Re: 2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#60 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 10, 2024 10:06 pm

Ambrose wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
This is still from the very end of March but some added context on the Luka situation:

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Excellent data. Makes me repeat my call for a '23-24 RAPM source.

I've gotten into it with Luka supporters quite a bit over the GB and that's just gone poorly so I want to take care here - though I'm more optimistic in general with y'all in finding common ground.

To me it's never been a matter of saying "Luka can't possibly show massive amounts of scoreboard-family impact", but me waiting to see it way longer than I expect. That wait is enough to convince me that Luka can put up massive numbers without massive impact, and that means him putting up even-more-massive numbers isn't enough to make me think "This has to be totally different now!", but all it will take is sufficient data and my I'll move passed the cautiousness.

I'll also note that Luka's raw +/- data has looked quite favorable after the mid-season trades, which could be another side of things changing - even if that might end up saying more about fit than anything else.

Going back to your data: It looks pretty awesome for Luka, but so awesome that we got something weird happening:

If (Luka with 3 or bench guys = +9.8) and (Luka overall = +4.7)
Then Luka with 2 or less bench guys <4.7)

The various possibilities of explanation here I see:

1. Other than Luka, the Mavs their best players coming off the bench.
2. Luka fits better with the players on the bench.
3. Too much noise.

I'd imagine that no one actually thinks (1), and if it's (3) then we should simply not take it seriously. So to me, further questions pertaining to (2) are where to go next:

- If Luka fits better with bench players, why? What can we learn about how to build around a Luka-shaped puzzle piece?
- Is this a new phenomenon, or has it tended to be this way in his career across coaches? If it's not new, then that becomes very, very important.
- How much does this trend change after the mid-season trades? What might have caused that change?


Couldn't there theoretically be an option 4-playing with a quality rim runner/rim protector consistently on the floor for the first time?

Because his on/off numbers have skyrocketed once that happened. The way I see it, someone who Luka can fully utilize offensively, who they can cover for him defensively would be a match made in heaven. In the reverse, Dallas doesn't have anyone else who can utilize bigs in the same way on offense, thus limiting their contribution when he's not in.


Your 4th option doesn't actually contradict my options so it's not really a 4th option.

But yeah, when you're talking about rim runners, that's "fit" in a nutshell, and this is what I've actually been saying on the GB. If the acquisition of a guy like Gafford turns Luka into a huge scoreboard-impact guy, then that speaks to Luka fitting much better with a Gafford-type than other types of players. This isn't necessarily a good or a bad thing, but it's a real phenomenon.
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