What Brunson has been doing this year is nothing short of spectacular, especially after Randle's injury. It's been 32 games since, and the Knicks offense has been great whenever he's on the court. He's pretty much doing his best Iverson impersonation...except even better!
The Knicks as currently structured are entirely reliant on their two offensive pieces to generate good shots for everyone. Once Randle went down, Brunson's load increased, as shown in anything you can name (37% USG since the Randle injury, on the season he's 7th in load and 6th in box creation). That's because there is NO ONE else on the team that can reliably generate good shots. And that is clear as day when you watch the Knicks, but bears out quite well in the stats. On the season, 122.7 ORTG when he's on (good for 2nd) and 108.7 when he's off (good for last). They actually look like a bunch of headless chickens out there, it's incredibly painful to watch. An offensive lift of +14 is something you really only see from Jokic...and from what I can tell he's actually the only volume player that exceeds that number.
His case gets better. Those season on/off numbers include games with Randle. Since his injury, the Knicks STILL have a 123 ORTG when Brunson is on and a brutal 105 ORTG when he's off. Keep in mind that in the Luka+Kyrie minutes, the Mavs have... a 122.3 ORTG! Haliburton when he's on the court is at 123.2! Just remarkable. When you see numbers like that, you typically expect collinearity/staggering issues, but the Knicks can't even afford a luxury like that. They've been gutted by injuries, and these minutes are all without Randle and most of them without Anunoby. Look at the most used lineups since Randles injury and how they've played:
Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa - 189 min - 123 ORTG
Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, McBride - 172 min - 142 ORTG
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, McBride - 78 min - 115 ORTG
Anunoby, Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo - 74 min - 119 ORTG
At all times, there are 2 non-shooters on the court, and in the most used lineup there are 3! Your center not being able to shoot is common, 2 non-shooters isn't ideal but teams might be forced to do so sometimes, 3 non-shooters is just a death sentence in todays NBA for the most part (ask the Lakers). You contrast this with the floor spacing that the Celtics provide Tatum, and it's night and day. Literally every meaningful player on that team can shoot, and damn near each one plays defense, it's absurd.
I evoked Iverson earlier, and it's not to say that this is some singular carryjob by Brunson (never liked it when people said it about Iverson either). There's a lot of dirty work being done by the rest of the cast. iHart is the other big catalyst for the offense. You'll notice in the lineup data that the worst combination is the one without him, he provides a ton with his screening, passing, offensive rebounding, and he's worked on his floater off the short roll. Hart's one of the league's best grab-and-go players and has surprised me with his passing this season. When teams trap Brunson near half-court, he's been a great escape valve. Good shooting from DDV and McBride, surprisingly good offensive rebounding from Achiuwa helping the Knicks be the best in the league at that (awesome since he was considered a throwaway in the OG trade). And of course great coaching, Thibs has devised an offense that utilizes Brunson both on and off ball with a focus on offensive rebounding. But Brunson is what makes the engine hum. Very rarely I actually think to myself "man Brunson is really dribbling the air out the ball" and it gives me some Carmelo PTSD, but that's really all the Knicks have, and it STILL is leading to a 123 ORTG. The fact that he can even generate good shots with some of the worst spacing in the league is commendable.
In my mind, Tatum v Brunson on offense is not a serious discussion. The supporting cast quality difference is INSANE yet the results are not. What I find unique about the Celtics this year compared to other title favorites is that they are a buzzsaw no matter who's on the court. Not sure how to verify this, but they might have the record for most rotation players with > +10 onCourt NTRG. Of their top 13 in minutes, 11 (!) of them have an onCourt rating of > +10.5 (!!). The other 2, Brown and Kornet, are at a measly +9.3/+9.2. The Celtics offense drops from 124.2 with Tatum on to 122.2 with him off
To me, Tatum's reasoning has to be more than the minutes-leader getting a disproportionate amount of credit for the perfect, modern, 5-out offense that really any star wing would excel in.
Brunson has some shortcomings too. His height prevents him from being one of the tip-top best playmakers in the league since he can't see over traps. He could be a bit more efficient, and maybe provide some more value offball (though I'm not agreeable on the portability issue, in his last year in Dallas with an inferior Luka and MUCH inferior version of himself they still had a ~+6 offense with both). But those are issues that put him behind Jokic and Luka. And considering he's shown to be a consistent playoff performer (outperformed Tatum offensively last year vs the same opponent
), he should get strong consideration for at least 3rd in OPOTY by year's end.
