Should Luka win MVP?

[hagredionis]

Swap SGA and Luka and that's my list. I think SGA is getting severely underrated at this point.

How is SGA ahead of Luka?
ppg Luka 33.9 / SGA 30.1
apg Luka 9.8 / SGA 6.2
rpg Luka 9.2 / SGA 5.5
eFG% Luka .573 / SGA .567

Why are you just listing a few stats Luka beats SGA at?

WS Luka 12.2 / SGA 14.6
spg Luka 1.4 / SGA 2.0
TS% Luka 61.7 / SGA 63.6
EPM Luka +7.9 [3rd in NBA] / SGA +8.8 [2nd in NBA]
TS+ Luka 143.3 / SGA 197.9

And how about the players games and minutes?

Luka 70 Games, 2624 Minutes
SGA 75 Games, 2553 Minutes [Sat lots of 4th quarters since he was a +11.1 On-Court

lol yes that 0.6 steals per game more totally offsets the 3.8 ppg, 3.6 apg and 3.7 rpg more that Luka has.

there is also loose ball recovered per game
Luka 1.1 SGA 0.9

btw seems that you forgot some advanced stats:
VORP Luka 8.0 SGA 7.1
BPM Luka 9.9 SGA 9.0
DRIP Luka 6.1 SGA 4.2

[Colbinii]

How is SGA ahead of Luka?
ppg Luka 33.9 / SGA 30.1
apg Luka 9.8 / SGA 6.2
rpg Luka 9.2 / SGA 5.5
eFG% Luka .573 / SGA .567

Why are you just listing a few stats Luka beats SGA at?

WS Luka 12.2 / SGA 14.6
spg Luka 1.4 / SGA 2.0
TS% Luka 61.7 / SGA 63.6
EPM Luka +7.9 [3rd in NBA] / SGA +8.8 [2nd in NBA]
TS+ Luka 143.3 / SGA 197.9

And how about the players games and minutes?

Luka 70 Games, 2624 Minutes
SGA 75 Games, 2553 Minutes [Sat lots of 4th quarters since he was a +11.1 On-Court

lol yes that 0.6 steals per game more totally offsets the 3.8 ppg, 3.6 apg and 3.7 rpg more that Luka has.

there is also loose ball recovered per game
Luka 1.1 SGA 0.9

btw seems that you forgot some advanced stats:
VORP Luka 8.0 SGA 7.1
BPM Luka 9.9 SGA 9.0
DRIP Luka 6.1 SGA 4.2

Look, you clearly have a horse in this race. I don't. I have SGA and Luka as interchangeable for my MVP runner-up behind Joker, but I also put value on narrative/standings when I think about an award which attempts to capture the season in a snap shot. That is how I view these awards, as MVP isn't simply "who is the best".

If you think it is simply "who is the best" and have a handful of statistics which you deem worthy as determining the best player, then you should put Luka ahead of SGA and/or even Jokic if Luka comes out ahead for you.

I was just pointing out how different people can value different statistics, and you happened to just list some statistics which all favored Luka, and regardless of who you want to win MVP, that isn't objective.

[ChipotleWest]

To me Luka has been the best player in the NBA since the trade deadline. But before the trade deadline he didn't have a great team and they had too many injuries. If they had this team all season at full health they'd be close to 60 wins and #1 seed. I think next year he'll be the favorite to win it, but won't win it this year.

[Texas Chuck]

nope, Jokic should.

[tsherkin]

nope, Jokic should.

I'm with this, though Luka is having a fantastic season.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

Why are you just listing a few stats Luka beats SGA at?

WS Luka 12.2 / SGA 14.6
spg Luka 1.4 / SGA 2.0
TS% Luka 61.7 / SGA 63.6
EPM Luka +7.9 [3rd in NBA] / SGA +8.8 [2nd in NBA]
TS+ Luka 143.3 / SGA 197.9

And how about the players games and minutes?

Luka 70 Games, 2624 Minutes
SGA 75 Games, 2553 Minutes [Sat lots of 4th quarters since he was a +11.1 On-Court

lol yes that 0.6 steals per game more totally offsets the 3.8 ppg, 3.6 apg and 3.7 rpg more that Luka has.

there is also loose ball recovered per game
Luka 1.1 SGA 0.9

btw seems that you forgot some advanced stats:
VORP Luka 8.0 SGA 7.1
BPM Luka 9.9 SGA 9.0
DRIP Luka 6.1 SGA 4.2

Look, you clearly have a horse in this race. I don't. I have SGA and Luka as interchangeable for my MVP runner-up behind Joker, but I also put value on narrative/standings when I think about an award which attempts to capture the season in a snap shot. That is how I view these awards, as MVP isn't simply "who is the best".

If you think it is simply "who is the best" and have a handful of statistics which you deem worthy as determining the best player, then you should put Luka ahead of SGA and/or even Jokic if Luka comes out ahead for you.

I was just pointing out how different people can value different statistics, and you happened to just list some statistics which all favored Luka, and regardless of who you want to win MVP, that isn't objective.

I don't really get what you're saying right now.

If it is about narrative and team success why did Jokic get two MVP's when the Nuggets didn't win 50?

Idk, seems like the media just doesn't like Luka very much. Still upset he was better than Ayton maybe.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

nope, Jokic should.

I'm with this, though Luka is having a fantastic season.

I don't really get it. Luka has more points and assists and carried his team to more wins than Jokic's first 2 MVP's when people were saying it was just because of injury. But now Luka finishes a few wins behind when he has to carry a team with lots of injury issues, Jokic gets it again?

If Luka isnt this years MVP then I don't think Jokic shouldn't have gotten his first two. Shifting goalposts so one gets 3 MVP while the other gets 0 just seems like hate tbh. Jokic has not been 3 mvps better than Luka for his career and it would suck if Luka ends up MVP-less because media decided to give Jokic extra credit for a ring during Luka's best regular season.

[tsherkin]

I don't really get it. Luka has more points and assists and carried his team to more wins than Jokic's first 2 MVP's when people were saying it was just because of injury. But now Luka finishes a few wins behind when he has to carry a team with lots of injury issues, Jokic gets it again?

If Luka isnt this years MVP then I don't think Jokic shouldn't have gotten his first two. Shifting goalposts so one gets 3 MVP while the other gets 0 just seems like hate tbh. Jokic has not been 3 mvps better than Luka for his career and it would suck if Luka ends up MVP-less because media decided to give Jokic extra credit for a ring during Luka's best regular season.

It isn't shifting goalposts at all, and that's a tiresome argument. There is a legitimate pro-Doncic argument, but that doesn't mean it's appropriate or good discourse to attack people for holding a pro-Jokic argument.

[Colbinii]

lol yes that 0.6 steals per game more totally offsets the 3.8 ppg, 3.6 apg and 3.7 rpg more that Luka has.

there is also loose ball recovered per game
Luka 1.1 SGA 0.9

btw seems that you forgot some advanced stats:
VORP Luka 8.0 SGA 7.1
BPM Luka 9.9 SGA 9.0
DRIP Luka 6.1 SGA 4.2

Look, you clearly have a horse in this race. I don't. I have SGA and Luka as interchangeable for my MVP runner-up behind Joker, but I also put value on narrative/standings when I think about an award which attempts to capture the season in a snap shot. That is how I view these awards, as MVP isn't simply "who is the best".

If you think it is simply "who is the best" and have a handful of statistics which you deem worthy as determining the best player, then you should put Luka ahead of SGA and/or even Jokic if Luka comes out ahead for you.

I was just pointing out how different people can value different statistics, and you happened to just list some statistics which all favored Luka, and regardless of who you want to win MVP, that isn't objective.

I don't really get what you're saying right now.

I am saying stay objective as possible and use whatever philosophy you want to determine MVP.

If it is about narrative and team success why did Jokic get two MVP's when the Nuggets didn't win 50?

Are you trying to say we all need to define MVP in the exact same way?

I don't try to guess or predict what everyone is doing or why people vote a way, I just vote for the player who epitomizes the MVP for me.

But you are right--it isn't only about narrative and/or team success.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

I don't really get it. Luka has more points and assists and carried his team to more wins than Jokic's first 2 MVP's when people were saying it was just because of injury. But now Luka finishes a few wins behind when he has to carry a team with lots of injury issues, Jokic gets it again?

If Luka isnt this years MVP then I don't think Jokic shouldn't have gotten his first two. Shifting goalposts so one gets 3 MVP while the other gets 0 just seems like hate tbh. Jokic has not been 3 mvps better than Luka for his career and it would suck if Luka ends up MVP-less because media decided to give Jokic extra credit for a ring during Luka's best regular season.

It isn't shifting goalposts at all, and that's a tiresome argument. There is a legitimate pro-Doncic argument, but that doesn't mean it's appropriate or good discourse to attack people for holding a pro-Jokic argument.

How is it not shifting goalposts to give one two MVPs when they don't win 50 and then be like sorry sir, you don't even get one when you won 50 twice?

Mavericks can barely win anything without Luka but were one of the winnigest teams with him and when he got a real squad they were the best team in the league.

How does Jokic who already got two MVPs with irrelevant teams now get to take a 3rd when SGA gets the Thunder from missing the playoffs to the first seed, over Jokic in his own conference and Luka who is carrying role players and a guy who blows up everything he touches to almost perfect basketball down the stretch?

This is just robbing other players of big accomplishments and it sucks. They should give MVP to players who earned it, but instead they're just giving the same award to the same guy because they like him better even when they have to completely change up their tune to do it.

[tsherkin]

They should give MVP to players who earned it, but instead they're just giving the same award to the same guy because they like him better even when they have to completely change up their tune to do it.

Jokic IS earning it. That doesn't mean that other guys don't have viable arguments, but you're also doing the very thing you're complaining about, you realize, yes? Jokic is a very viable MVP candidate this year.

[Colbinii]

I don't really get it. Luka has more points and assists and carried his team to more wins than Jokic's first 2 MVP's when people were saying it was just because of injury. But now Luka finishes a few wins behind when he has to carry a team with lots of injury issues, Jokic gets it again?

If Luka isnt this years MVP then I don't think Jokic shouldn't have gotten his first two. Shifting goalposts so one gets 3 MVP while the other gets 0 just seems like hate tbh. Jokic has not been 3 mvps better than Luka for his career and it would suck if Luka ends up MVP-less because media decided to give Jokic extra credit for a ring during Luka's best regular season.

It isn't shifting goalposts at all, and that's a tiresome argument. There is a legitimate pro-Doncic argument, but that doesn't mean it's appropriate or good discourse to attack people for holding a pro-Jokic argument.

How is it not shifting goalposts to give one two MVPs when they don't win 50 and then be like sorry sir, you don't even get one when you won 50 twice?

Are you sure goal posts are being shifted here?

Who was better than Jokic in 2021?

Who even had an argument--in the regular season--over Jokic in 2021?

BPM
1) Jokic 12.1
2) Giannis 9.0

VORP
1) Jokic 8.8
2) Curry 5.8

TS+
1) Curry 255.3
2) Jokic 221.1

Best Players on the teams with more wins than Denver
1) Rudy Gobert
2) 49 Wins - Kawhi Leonard [Played in 52 of 72 games, meanwhile Jokic played in all 72 games]
3) 49 Wins - Chris Paul [4.6 BPM, 3.6 VORP, 52.7 TS+)
4) 48 Wins - Giannis
5) 48 Wins - Joel Embiid [Played in 51 of 72 games]
6) 47 Wins - Jokic with Denver

So, you are saying these situations are similar, right?

You think that the Nuggets being 2 games behind the #2 seed in the entire NBA is the same as Dallas being 7 games behind the #2 seed? No, you aren't dumb, that can't be your rationale.

You think that someone was close to Jokic's level as a player? Clearly not in the Advanced Metrics.

You think that someone played close to as many games as Jokic? No, the closest is Giannis at 61 games [11 games LESS than Jokic].

So, what exactly is the parallel from 2021 to 2024?

[dygaction]

I guess the question can be: If Luka were to win MVP this year over Jokic, which is more unfair to Jokic, this year or Last year Embiid?


Embiid 2023:
43w-23l in 69 games played; Team 54w-28l; (11w-5l in games missed)
33.1p/10.2r/4.2a/1.0s/1.7b/3.4to
31.4PER/.655TS%/.259WS/48/9.2BPM/6.4VORP

Luka 2024:
46w-24l in 70 games played; team 50w-32l (4w-8l in games missed)
33.9p/9.2r/9.8a/1.4s/0.5b/4.0to
28.1PER/.617TS%/.220WS/48/9.9BPM/8.0VORP

Could be an interesting and intense fight between these two if the same season.

[OhayoKD]

They should give MVP to players who earned it, but instead they're just giving the same award to the same guy because they like him better even when they have to completely change up their tune to do it.

Jokic IS earning it. That doesn't mean that other guys don't have viable arguments, but you're also doing the very thing you're complaining about, you realize, yes? Jokic is a very viable MVP candidate this year.

Ironically his regular-season this year was probably alot stronger than what he did for his first MVP I think. But between the early frontrunner(Lebron) getting injured, Giannis coasting defensively, Embid missing a bunch of time and the top 2 regular-season teams being closer to ensemble casts, the best competitor was probably Steph who won a few games less(though can be justified argued to have been more valuable statistically).

Shai also seems to be forgetting that 21 was only a 72 game season so the "didn't win 50" isn't nearly as bad as it sounds.

All said, the second MVP does seem pretty odd juxtaposed with this year though.

And I do think anti-Luka cases get significantly weaker if you factor in roster-construction/situational factors. Statistically, Luka also posted a monster raw signal with a decent sample(27-pace without, 53-win with), posted by far the best on/off of any of the leading candidates without key teammates, and by sheer production was pretty clearly doing the most offensively of anyone in the league(again, counting offense beyond the start and end of possessions). Now add in that Luka/Kyrie was supposed to be questionable fit-wise, that Luka has had to deal with all sorts of injuries(similar to 22 Jokic) and roster upheavel, and that the healthy version of this team was playing 60-win basketball(not to mention the tear they went to the end the year), I don't know Jokic has that good of a case, setting aside the precedent 2022 established(and the broader nba precedent with giving mvp-less players the benefit of the doubt in an MVP race).

If anything I think seeding optics(Mavs have one of the best records in the league and deliberately missed on 2 likely wins because their seed was locked) and injuries have tricked people into thinking this was akin to a 2019 Harden type year where Luka just didn't play that good for an early stretch and turned it on late. Luka has been doing this all season.

You think that someone was close to Jokic's level as a player? Clearly not in the Advanced Metrics.
?[/quote

You mean the advanced metrics you chose? Not sure why these matter, paticularly when one of the players Jokic is compared to is a much better defender.

[OhayoKD]

I guess the question can be: If Luka were to win MVP this year over Jokic, which is more unfair to Jokic, this year or Last year Embiid?


Embiid 2023:
43w-23l in 69 games played; Team 54w-28l; (11w-5l in games missed)
33.1p/10.2r/4.2a/1.0s/1.7b/3.4to
31.4PER/.655TS%/.259WS/48/9.2BPM/6.4VORP

Luka 2024:
46w-24l in 70 games played; team 50w-32l (4w-8l in games missed)
33.9p/9.2r/9.8a/1.4s/0.5b/4.0to
28.1PER/.617TS%/.220WS/48/9.9BPM/8.0VORP

Considering what we saw from the Sixers without Embid this year, it's not really that clear there was some robbery with the two-way player getting mvp over the one-way one whatever the made-up formulas you like say

[Colbinii]

They should give MVP to players who earned it, but instead they're just giving the same award to the same guy because they like him better even when they have to completely change up their tune to do it.

Jokic IS earning it. That doesn't mean that other guys don't have viable arguments, but you're also doing the very thing you're complaining about, you realize, yes? Jokic is a very viable MVP candidate this year.

Ironically his regular-season this year was probably alot stronger than what he did for his first MVP I think. But between the early frontrunner(Lebron) getting injured, Giannis coasting defensively, Embid missing a bunch of time and the top 2 regular-season teams being closer to ensemble casts, the best competitor was probably Steph who won a few games less(though can be justified argued to have been more valuable statistically).

Shai also seems to be forgetting that 21 was only a 72 game season so the "didn't win 50" isn't nearly as bad as it sounds.

All said, the second MVP does seem pretty odd juxtaposed with this year though.

And I do think anti-Luka cases get significantly weaker if you factor in roster-construction/situational factors. Statistically, Luka also posted a monster raw signal with a decent sample(27-pace without, 53-win with), posted by far the best on/off of any of the leading candidates without key teammates, and by sheer production was pretty clearly doing the most offensively of anyone in the league(again, counting offense beyond the start and end of possessions). Now add in that Luka/Kyrie was supposed to be questionable fit-wise, that Luka has had to deal with all sorts of injuries(similar to 22 Jokic) and roster upheavel, and that the healthy version of this team was playing 60-win basketball(not to mention the tear they went to the end the year), I don't know Jokic has that good of a case, setting aside the precedent 2022 established(and the broader nba precedent with giving mvp-less players the benefit of the doubt in an MVP race).

If anything I think seeding optics(Mavs have one of the best records in the league and deliberately missed on 2 likely wins because their seed was locked) and injuries have tricked people into thinking this was akin to a 2019 Harden type year where Luka just didn't play that good for an early stretch and turned it on late. Luka has been doing this all season.

You think that someone was close to Jokic's level as a player? Clearly not in the Advanced Metrics.
?[/quote

You mean the advanced metrics you chose? Not sure why these matter, paticularly when one of the players Jokic is compared to is a much better defender.

That isn't the point. The point is Jokic crushes the box-score. MVP is typically "who crushes the box-score while being on a good team".

I was simply trying to illustrate this in combination of other "biases" Shaiguy420 brought up as not a clean or accurate parallel.

But, if that is all you got out of my post, not the fact that there are little--if any--parallels to 2021 and 2024, then you have missed the entire point I was conveying, and hopefully you now see the point I was conveying

[dygaction]

I guess the question can be: If Luka were to win MVP this year over Jokic, which is more unfair to Jokic, this year or Last year Embiid?


Embiid 2023:
43w-23l in 69 games played; Team 54w-28l; (11w-5l in games missed)
33.1p/10.2r/4.2a/1.0s/1.7b/3.4to
31.4PER/.655TS%/.259WS/48/9.2BPM/6.4VORP

Luka 2024:
46w-24l in 70 games played; team 50w-32l (4w-8l in games missed)
33.9p/9.2r/9.8a/1.4s/0.5b/4.0to
28.1PER/.617TS%/.220WS/48/9.9BPM/8.0VORP

Considering what we saw from the Sixers without Embid this year, it's not really that clear there was some robbery with the two-way player getting mvp over the one-way one whatever the made-up formulas you like say

The difference between last season and this season 76ers is the one-way player, James Harden...

[OhayoKD]

I guess the question can be: If Luka were to win MVP this year over Jokic, which is more unfair to Jokic, this year or Last year Embiid?


Embiid 2023:
43w-23l in 69 games played; Team 54w-28l; (11w-5l in games missed)
33.1p/10.2r/4.2a/1.0s/1.7b/3.4to
31.4PER/.655TS%/.259WS/48/9.2BPM/6.4VORP

Luka 2024:
46w-24l in 70 games played; team 50w-32l (4w-8l in games missed)
33.9p/9.2r/9.8a/1.4s/0.5b/4.0to
28.1PER/.617TS%/.220WS/48/9.9BPM/8.0VORP

Considering what we saw from the Sixers without Embid this year, it's not really that clear there was some robbery with the two-way player getting mvp over the one-way one whatever the made-up formulas you like say

The difference between last season and this season 76ers is the one-way player, James Harden...

The one way player the Sixers improved without?

Embid got to play with the first good coach of his career and was instantly far and away the most valuable rs player in the league despite losing his best teammate. If anything, the right question to ask is how many more MVP's Embid would have won if he hadn't been playing under Brett brown and Doc Rivers

[tsherkin]

If anything, the right question to ask is how many more MVP's Embid would have won if he hadn't been playing under Brett brown and Doc Rivers

Given his RS availability?

[OhayoKD]

If anything, the right question to ask is how many more MVP's Embid would have won if he hadn't been playing under Brett brown and Doc Rivers

Given his RS availability?

Good point.